12月29日，上周，贵金属市场在假期交投清淡的背景下，上演了一轮令人瞩目的"冲顶"行情。现货黄金 在上周五表现强劲，单日收涨1.17%，盘中最高触及4549美元/盎司，再度刷新历史最高纪录。 本周，随着圣诞节假期结束，市场将迎来元旦假期。在此期间，重点关注于几个核心事件：北京时间周 四凌晨公布的美联储12月货币政策会议纪要，这将为市场理解其内部政策考量提供关键线索；此外，市 场对美联储未来的降息预期以及持续紧张的地缘政治局势，仍将是主导金价短期情绪与方向的关键因 素。 周一（12月29日）亚市早盘，现货黄金高位持稳，开盘后小幅走高，不过随后跳水。毕竟当价格持续脱 离传统定价框架时，市场正逐渐从"趋势狂欢"进入"多空博弈"的敏感阶段。当前金价的走势，已不能简 单用单一因素解释。它是由货币政策、地缘政治、市场结构三大核心引擎驱动，并与估值泡沫风险、流 动性冲击两大潜在风险激烈角力的结果。 另外，本轮行情一个标志性特征是白银的领涨。白银价格因市场规模小、工业需求旺盛而更具投机性， 近期单日涨幅可达10%。这种极致涨幅极大地提振了整个贵金属板块的风险偏好和比价效应，吸引了增 量资金进入，也反过来牵引黄金价格上行。 从 ...

C）中长期观点。中长期来看。美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和逆全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务和美联储独立性削弱将进一步增 加美元信用风险、全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续、故金价中长期重心大概率继续上移，建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 the Sept 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/12/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | ( ...

Market Volatility - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver initially rising over 5% before dropping more than 3%, and gold seeing a maximum decline of nearly $80 per ounce [1][2][4] - As of December 29, 2023, silver was priced at $80.37 per ounce, reflecting a 1.31% increase, while gold was at $4516.06 per ounce, down 0.36% [2][4] Market Dynamics - Analysts attribute the increased volatility to the upcoming New Year holiday and potential adjustments in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may lead to heightened market fluctuations [6][8] - The trading heat in the silver market is driven by a perceived shortage, with increased trading volume and delivery amounts, although there are concerns about profit-taking and market cooling as the delivery month ends [8] Future Outlook - Despite short-term price corrections, industry experts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for precious metals, predicting a challenging environment for prices to decline significantly [8][9] - The precious metals market is expected to be influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's independence crisis, the weakening of the dollar, and a potential silver supply crisis, which could support higher prices in the future [9][10] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may rise due to increased demand for safe-haven assets and central bank purchases, while silver could outperform gold due to industrial demand and supply constraints [9][10]

Group 1 - The international precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver prices initially surpassing $80 per ounce before sharply declining [1] - London silver spot prices rose over 5% before turning negative, while COMEX silver futures saw an increase of over 7% before also declining [2] - Precious metal prices have been driven by multiple factors, including interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a parabolic price increase [5] Group 2 - Concerns about supply shortages are rising, particularly as silver is essential in various industries such as solar panels, AI data centers, and electronics [5] - The current inventory levels of silver are near historical lows, raising the risk of supply shortages that could impact multiple sectors [5] - Technical indicators suggest that silver's price increase may be excessive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing 80, indicating potential for a market correction [5]

Core Viewpoint - The silver prices in both New York futures and London spot markets experienced significant volatility, initially surging above $80 per ounce before sharply declining, indicating a high level of speculative positions and substantial short-term risk in the market [1]. Price Movement - On February 29, during the first trading day of the week in the Asian trading session, both New York silver futures and London spot silver prices broke the $80 per ounce mark, reaching new intraday highs [1]. - Following this surge, the London spot silver price reversed from an increase of over 5% to a decline of more than 2%, highlighting the extreme fluctuations in the market [1].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced significant volatility, with sharp price fluctuations observed in silver, platinum, palladium, and gold, raising concerns about potential market corrections and risks associated with speculative trading [9][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - COMEX silver initially surged over 7% but later turned to a slight increase [2] - Spot platinum dropped over 7% during trading but later narrowed its decline to 3.6% [3] - NYMEX platinum fell more than 9% before recovering to a decline of less than 5% [4] - NYMEX palladium initially rose about 5% but then plummeted, with a peak drop exceeding 6% [6] - Both gold futures and spot prices shifted from gains to losses [7] Group 2: Weekly Performance - Last Friday, the precious metals market saw a broad surge, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.31% to $4,562 per ounce, accumulating a weekly gain of 3.98% [9] - Spot gold increased by 1.12% to $4,531.1 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 4.44% [9] - COMEX silver futures skyrocketed by 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 18.06% [9] - Spot silver surged 10.24% to $79.196 per ounce, accumulating a weekly gain of 17.87% and a year-to-date increase of 175% [9] - Spot palladium rose 14.24% to $1,923.4 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 12.63% [9] - Spot platinum increased by 10.31% to $2,450.91 per ounce, accumulating a weekly rise of 24.31% [9] Group 3: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at unsustainable levels, with a potential correction expected as enthusiasm for gold wanes, predicting silver prices may drop to around $42 per ounce by the end of next year [9] - The chief analyst at CITIC Futures noted that while long-term bullish factors exist, the rapid short-term price increases have been excessively traded, leading to heightened speculative sentiment and potential risks to market stability [9] - Market analyst Tony Sycamore described the silver market as experiencing a "generational bubble," driven by strong demand and supply imbalances, alongside expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026 [10] - To mitigate market risks, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued notifications to encourage risk management and set trading margin requirements and price limits for the upcoming New Year period [10]

Market Volatility - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver initially rising over 5% to nearly $84 per ounce before dropping over 3%, and then recovering slightly to $80.37 per ounce, a 1.31% increase [1] - Gold reached a peak of $4550.52 per ounce before falling to a low of $4471.25 per ounce, marking a decline of nearly $80 per ounce, and was reported at $4516.06 per ounce, down 0.36% [3] - Platinum prices saw a sharp decline of nearly 8% during the trading session, but the drop was later mitigated, with the price reported at $2434.30 per ounce, down 0.09% [5] Market Drivers and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in trading activity for precious metals is influenced by the upcoming New Year holiday and potential adjustments in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may lead to increased market volatility [6] - The silver market is experiencing speculative trading due to a perceived shortage, with increased delivery volumes in the futures market. However, the end of the delivery month and the holiday break may lead to profit-taking and increased price volatility [7] - Looking ahead to 2026, analysts remain optimistic about precious metals, citing factors such as the Federal Reserve's independence crisis, declining dollar credibility, and a potential silver supply crisis as key drivers for price increases [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance for silver is intensifying, with global deliverable inventories at historical lows. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) inventory, excluding ETFs, offers little buffer [8] - Potential tariffs on silver imports by the U.S. could exacerbate resource competition and disrupt trade flows, worsening the current supply shortage [8] - Industrial demand from sectors such as photovoltaics, AI data centers, and electric vehicles is expected to provide rigid support for silver prices, while low mining output makes prices sensitive to demand shocks [8] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend a cautious approach to trading, suggesting that investors consider reducing long positions in the short term due to potential profit-taking and market cooling [7] - The overall outlook for precious metals remains bullish, with expectations of price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks. Strategies should focus on low-cost positioning while being mindful of market volatility [9]

贵金属周报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 贵金属狂飙，需系好安全带 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 12 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格加速上涨，不断刷新历史新高。在上周一 国际金价突破前期高点之后，贵金属普遍进入加速上涨阶 段。上周公布的美国经济数据整体偏强，虽然市场对于1 月降息预期较弱，但对于明年的降息预期仍达2-3次，整 体处于货币持续宽松的环境。日本在意外加息之后，继续 释放干预日元的信号，日元走强对美元形成一定的压制。 ⚫ 目前贵金属价格表现强势，除了美元指数维持弱势运行和 美联储独立性受损，将持续货币宽松为稀贵金属提供宏观 支撑之外，铂钯 ...

股指：指数连续上涨，资金情绪高涨 上周，A股市场持续上涨，Wind全A收涨2.78%，日均成交额1.97万亿元，较12月均值显著放量。中证 1000上涨3.76% ，中证500上涨4.03% ，沪深300指数上涨1.95% ，上证50上涨1.37%。资金情绪高涨， 融资余额周度增加460亿元，至2.52万亿元。但由于指数仍未摆脱前期震荡中枢，期权隐含波动率低位 震荡，1000IV收于19.32%，300IV收于16.14%。股债比较来看，股票市场估值小幅抬升，Wind全A估值 22.27倍，债权收益率基本持平，10年国债活跃券收益率1.84%，权益市场更受青睐。宏观因素有限，但 热点题材不断涌现，推动A股连续上涨。 资金层面的热点是A500ETF在12月获得大幅申购。据统计，宽基型ETF12月净申购1100亿元，其中近 1020亿元为A500ETF。A500指数长期与沪深300走势高度相关，相关系数超过0.98，细微差别在于A500 指数成长标的稍多，例如电力设备、电子等板块。在A500ETF获得大幅申购的同时，我们关注到Top5 会员单位IF净空头近期显著上涨，二者可能存在对冲关联。因此，相关资金可能并不会 ...

格隆汇12月29日｜贵金属价格回落，现货黄金失守4510美元/盎司，跌0.57%；纽约期金失守4530美元/ 盎司，跌0.53%；纽约期银失守79美元/盎司，涨2.11%；现货白银抹去逾6%的涨幅，跌2%报77.3美元/ 盎司；钯金期货跌1%，报2002.00美元/盎司。 ...