Core Insights - The rising trend of healthy and refreshing diets during the hot summer months has led to the popularity of salmon, which is being referred to as "edible air conditioning" due to its cooling properties [1][3] - JD Seven Fresh has launched a "Salmon Fresh Eating Festival" with various promotions, including discounts on multiple fresh salmon products, making high-quality seafood more accessible to consumers [1][5] Group 1: Salmon Characteristics - Salmon is known for its cold nature, which helps alleviate heat and discomfort during summer, making it an ideal food choice in hot weather [3] - Nutritional experts highlight three main features of salmon: its cooling properties, high nutritional value with 20g of protein per 100g and only about 180 calories, and its richness in Omega-3 fatty acids that provide anti-inflammatory and cardiovascular protection [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The peak season for salmon fishing in Norway is from July to September, during which the oil content is at its highest, enhancing the flavor [5] - Salmon consumption has expanded beyond traditional Japanese cuisine to include breakfast, camping, and baby food, aligning with the fast-paced urban lifestyle and becoming a "social currency" among younger consumers [7] - The trend towards instant retail and increased health consciousness is driving high-quality seafood like salmon from premium markets to mainstream dining, with expectations of a consumption peak this summer [7]

这个夏天，有机蔬菜在京东七鲜引爆消费热潮。最新数据显示，京东七鲜上半年有机商品购买用户数量 激增，尤其是自有品牌有机商品购买用户实现超三倍增长。其中，有机蔬菜品类表现极为抢眼，过去一 个季度成交额同比激增123%。 当有机理念融入日常餐桌，它代表的不仅是一种饮食选择，更是一种对品质生活、健康生活的追 求。"真有机"的透明承诺与"真不贵"的普惠价格，便捷的配送服务(非京东PLUS会员五公里内满39元免 运费，PLUS会员直接免邮)配合3公里内最快30分钟送达的极速体验，京东七鲜正让这份源于自然的安 心与美味，更快速、更轻松地直达消费者餐桌，满足有机生活的健康新风尚。 如何确保这份有机的安心承诺不打折扣？京东七鲜的答案是"真有机"的严格保障。平台建立了全链路管 理体系，源头上执行严苛的供应商准入标准和有机资质审核，确保种植过程严格禁用化学农药、化肥及 生长激素；严查每批商品的有机溯源码和认证报告，保证全程可追溯；更定期第三方送检关键安全指 标，用科学数据为"真有机"承诺背书。 高品质的有机蔬菜，一直以来也因"价格高冷"让不少消费者望而却步。京东七鲜破解这道难题的钥匙， 是"真不贵"的承诺。依托产地直采、高效物流等 ...

21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源、实习生李晴 7月22日，"星巴克推出自习室"登上微博热搜。 据媒体报道，7月21日，多家广州、深圳地区星巴克门店店员确认星巴克新推出"自习室"供客户学习。 有深圳店员表示不要求付费入座，不限时和不需要预约，门店提供免费电源插座、免费温水等。另有广 州员工称自习室和饮品区没有分开，大家会在一张长桌上学习。 对此，星巴克回应，未来还将在更多门店尝试更多"兴趣向"空间和活动。 背后是，星巴克正向中国团队放权，其在华运营也越发灵活。 譬如，6月，星巴克三大王牌品类——星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁，共计数十款产品集体降价。此前，星 巴克牵手五月天，还通过联名史努比、STAYREAL等IP来促销。 曾经，星巴克中国联名需要层层报批。但从近期种种市场活动中，能感受到中国团队有了越来越多主动 权。 此外，7月14日，星巴克中国宣布与中国东方航空正式达成全面合作。据了解，与东航的合作并不容易 谈，可见星巴克中国促增长决心。 回到自习室来看，星巴克正在继续发力自己的第三空间。某种程度上，这是星巴克的最大优势，拥有如 此多高规格门店不容易，运营这套系统更难。 但要看到，涌入门店自习的同学们，会不会对星巴克的顾 ...

Core Insights - The consumer market in China is showing a moderate recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% in the urban fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market for the first half of 2025, driven primarily by beverages, which grew by 5.6% [1] - The service consumption sector is on the rise, with a notable 8.7% increase in foot traffic in the out-of-home consumption market [2] - The retail landscape is evolving, with significant performance disparities among major retailers, as evidenced by a 1.1 percentage point decline in market share for the top ten retailers [4] Group 1: Market Performance - The FMCG market's growth is supported by positive trends in beverages, food, household cleaning, and personal care products, while dairy products lag behind [1] - The retail sales of convenience stores decreased by 3.6%, while small supermarkets saw a 7.3% increase in sales [3] - The overall retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure contributing over 50% [1] Group 2: Retail Channel Insights - Membership stores are gaining traction, with an overall penetration rate increase of 3.6 percentage points in the first half of 2025, driven by strong performances from Sam's Club [8][9] - Traditional supermarkets are transitioning to hard discount models, with companies like Zhongbai Group and Jiajiayue achieving rapid growth in their discount formats [12] - E-commerce channels experienced a 6.9% increase in sales, with platforms like Douyin and JD Group showing significant growth in penetration rates [13][15] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumers are increasingly sensitive to price while also valuing experiential aspects of shopping, leading to a demand for higher quality and functionality in products [17] - The 618 shopping festival saw a surge in demand for essential goods, with consumers diversifying their purchasing channels and seeking more personalized products [17] - Instant retail is redefining convenience, with platforms integrating resources to enhance consumer experiences, achieving over 35% penetration in the first half of 2025 [16]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's strategy team highlights 15 stocks with short-term catalytic potential, indicating that S&P 500 index earnings growth in Q2 may exceed expectations [1] Earnings Expectations - The market anticipates a 5% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 Q2 earnings per share and over 4% revenue growth, but actual growth may be stronger [1] - The seven major tech companies are expected to see a 14% increase in net profit, while the remaining 493 constituents may experience a 3% decline [1] - Despite analysts lowering earnings expectations from April to May, the earnings revision has rebounded from -25% to approximately 1%, suggesting Q2 earnings will likely exceed expectations, aligning with the historical average of 4%-5% [1] Recommended Stocks - **argenx SE (ARGX.US)**: undervalued R&D pipeline, target price $700 [2] - **Atlassian (TEAM.US)**: continuous revenue growth potential over 20% and expected margin expansion, target price $320 [3] - **Chewy (CHWY.US)**: benefits from marketing and product optimization, expected revenue to maintain or exceed Q1 levels, target price $50 [4] - **CVS Health (CVS.US)**: advantages from competitor store closures and growth in pharmacy benefit management, target price $80 [4] - **DraftKings (DKNG.US)**: potential earnings inflection point in Q2, with actual licensing rates offsetting tax and regulatory pressures, target price $52 [4] - **Eaton Corporation (ETN.US)**: benefits from improved profit margins in U.S. electrical business, target price $375 [5] - **Eli Lilly (LLY.US)**: core products Mounjaro and Zepbound expected to contribute $8.2 billion in revenue, exceeding expectations may lead to 2025 guidance upgrades, target price $1,135 [5] - **F5 (FFIV.US)**: positive outlook due to demand growth in cloud and load balancing products, target price $305 [6] - **NVIDIA (NVDA.US)**: strong end-user demand and accelerated shipments of rack-level products supporting supply-side growth, target price $170 [7] - **Omada Health (OMDA.US)**: operational leverage through technology empowerment and multi-disease sales, target price $25 [8] - **Southwest Airlines (LUV.US)**: potential stock rebound if internal guidance is met and baggage fee impacts are confirmed as limited, target price $38 [9] - **Valley National Bank (VLY.US)**: expected net interest income growth of 3% quarter-over-quarter, target price $11 [10] - **Western Digital (WDC.US)**: undervalued gross margin expansion prospects, target price $85 [11] Cautious Outlook - **National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA.US)**: cautious due to expected funds from operations (FFO) per share being below market and company guidance, target price $30 [12] - **Teradyne (TER.US)**: revenue and earnings per share forecasts for FY2026 are 7% and 14% below Wall Street expectations, target price $74 [13] Summary - Overall, Morgan Stanley's recommendations combine company fundamentals, industry trends, and market sentiment, providing diversified options for investors [14]

【环球网科技综合报道】7月23日消息，针对近期的外卖市场，高盛、摩根士丹利、瑞银等国际投行，均发布了相关研报。 瑞银在研报中指出，目前外卖市场的"烧钱"大战并不值得。外卖补贴过度引发四大负面效应——削弱了线下餐厅客流、行业整 体利润压缩、中小餐厅不堪重负、加剧浪费现象。助长用户"低价依赖"思维，加剧行业通缩风险。 此前，美团核心本地商业CEO王莆中也表示，卷单量对外卖行业没有价值，美团是"被迫防守"。公开资料显示，外卖市场的整 体规模和利润空间有限。去年，外卖行业总计300亿利润，利润率在互联网行业排名倒数。相较之下，电商有 6000 亿利润。 除外卖本身不值得"烧钱"竞争外，瑞银还指出，互联网企业瞄准的即时零售，其价值可能也低于部分企业的预期。 瑞银认为，即时零售和外卖一样并不能带来巨额利润。预计3年后，即时零售可能会翻倍到1.5万亿人民币，但即便如此，其市 场规模也仅占整个电商市场的10%。以2.5%的营业利润率计算，整个即时零售市场的实际利润约300亿人民币。相比于现在三家 企业千亿量级的投入和亏损，后期可能带来的利润明显不值得如此商战。 瑞银进一步分析指出，外卖商战也带来了头部互联网企业的机会流失。瑞 ...

央视网消息：透过数据看活力。7月22日，多部门发布最新数据，显示我国经济稳中有进。 上半年非银行部门跨境收入和支出创新高 国家外汇管理局数据显示，2025年上半年，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出合计7.6万亿美元，规模创历史同期新高；跨境资金净流 入1273亿美元，延续2024年下半年以来的净流入态势；境内外汇市场交易量总计21万亿美元，同比增长10.2%。外资总体净增持境内股票和债 券。 上半年批发和零售业增加值同比增5.9% 商务部发布数据显示，2025年上半年，我国批发和零售业增加值达6.8万亿元，同比增长5.9%，占GDP比重为10.3%。 上半年全国城镇新增就业695万人 2025年上半年 我国民航运输规模再创新高 中国民航局7月22日发布消息，2025年上半年，民航运输规模再创新高，运行效率持续提升，民航高质量发展取得新成效。 2025年上半年，民航全行业完成运输总周转量783.5亿吨公里、旅客运输量3.7亿人次、货邮运输量478.4万吨，同比分别增长11.4%、6%、 14.6%，运输规模再创新高。 人力资源社会保障部7月22日发布数据显示，上半年，全国城镇新增就业695万人，完成全年目标 ...

Core Insights - As of July 22, the latest market financing balance reached 1,919.613 billion yuan, an increase of 15.048 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Among the 23 primary industries under Shenwan, the electronic industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 2.381 billion yuan [1] - The industries with notable increases in financing balance also include pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and machinery, with increases of 1.413 billion yuan, 1.359 billion yuan, and 1.126 billion yuan respectively [1] - Conversely, eight industries experienced a decrease in financing balance, with the computer, home appliance, and retail industries seeing the largest declines of 0.114 billion yuan, 0.095595 billion yuan, and 0.090656 billion yuan respectively [2] Industry Financing Balance Changes - The coal industry had the highest growth rate in financing balance, with a latest balance of 15.839 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.48% increase [1] - Other industries with significant increases include construction decoration, banking, and building materials, with growth rates of 2.25%, 1.70%, and 1.65% respectively [1] - The steel, retail, and home appliance industries reported the largest declines in financing balance, with latest balances of 14.479 billion yuan, 21.545 billion yuan, and 26.662 billion yuan, showing decreases of 0.48%, 0.42%, and 0.36% respectively [2]

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 7 月 23 日星期三 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指上望 26,000 點：由於美國 5 月中旬押後對等關稅 90 天，內地上半 年經濟較預期中平穩，現階段加推經濟刺激方案的意願不大，企業盈利改 善有限。不過，港股大市成交活躍，風險偏好尚算積極，資金於不同板塊 輪動。中美將啟動新一輪貿易談判，同時美國與更多國家達成協議，關稅 戰局勢緩和，恒指料上望 26,000 點關口。 TCL電子(1070)料中期經調整淨利潤按年最多增65%； 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 美國 6 月成屋銷售； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 瑞典證實 將主辦新一輪中美貿易談判； 特朗普:或於未來一段時間訪華； 特朗普：與日本達成貿易協議、關稅率降至15%； 中國外匯局：上半年外資淨增持A股和基金101億美元 料未來續穩 定增長； 企業消息 ➢ 周大福(1929)首財季零售值按年跌1.9%； ASMPT(0522)中期少賺32% 息0.26元； 敏實集團(0425)與億航訂協議 研發及開展低空飛行器相關業務； 藥明合聯(2268)發盈喜 預期中期淨利潤增長逾50%； 外圍市況展望 美 ...

大 类 资 产 配 置 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230525070006 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯晓宇 (8621)23297818× fengxy2@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 相关研究 - ⚫ 经历了二季度的风险偏好改善，全球股市快速反弹，美股、德股均创下历史新高。进入三季度，目前风险资产的情绪和估值 均处于高位，市场关注是否会重蹈过去 2 年夏天的覆辙，出现显著回撤。除了美元外，当前美股估值较过去 2 年同期更高， 美债利率水平与过去 2 年同期水平接近，我们回顾了过去 2023 年和 2024 年风险资产回调的过程，并且梳理了 2025 年夏天 ...