【最新现货黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金延续强势拉升，早盘开于4673.4美元后小幅回落至4663.7，随后进入震荡上行节奏，午盘起加 速攀升，日线最高触及4995.1美元，尾盘略有收敛，收于4946.3美元，以一根上影线较长的大阳线收 官，显示多头攻势强劲但上方存在一定压力。 形态上看，今日倾向回踩后延续上涨。目标依次看4900、4950及5000关口，突破则进一步看5035、5050 和5082。 【要闻速递】 此次上涨是对周一跌势的阶段性修复。此前，黄金在上周五单日跌幅接近10%，与白银同日暴跌30%(创 1980年来最差单日表现)共同引发"史诗级抛售"。随着周二金银持续走高，全球多地矿业股及贵金属ETF 同步跟涨。 欧洲市场方面，覆盖地区性矿业龙头的Stoxx600基础资源指数早盘涨超2%;伦敦上市的力拓(Rio Tinto)开 盘涨2.2%，英美资源集团(Anglo American)涨逾3%，安托法加斯塔(Antofagasta)涨2.5%。美国市场贵金 属ETF亦表现亮眼：ProShares Ultra Silver ETF开盘前一度涨15%，abrdn Physical Silver Shares ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant rebound in precious metals, with spot gold surging by 5.96% in a single day, reaching over $4,980 per ounce, marking the largest single-day increase since November 2008 [1] - Spot silver also experienced a dramatic rise, with an intraday increase of over 10%, surpassing the $89 mark [1] - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector opened strongly, with the non-ferrous mining ETF (招商, 159690) rising by 2.11%, and leading stocks such as Hunan Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Copper showing notable gains [1] Group 2 - The rebound is attributed to technical recovery and long-term value reassessment, with gold prices hitting key support levels after a historic drop, prompting short sellers to cover positions and long-term investors to buy on dips [1] - The fundamental support for a long-term bull market in gold remains intact, driven by expectations of global monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases, which form the value foundation after price declines [1] - The market is expected to experience high volatility in the near term, with gold prices likely entering a wide fluctuation phase unless new macro catalysts emerge [1] Group 3 - The non-ferrous mining ETF (招商, 159690) has a high concentration in its top three weighted commodities: copper (31%), gold (14%), and aluminum (12%), accounting for nearly 60% of its total [3] - The ETF is described as a "non-ferrous amplifier" due to its concentrated investment in upstream resource leaders, where rising prices of non-ferrous metals lead to significant profit increases, resulting in a "Davis double play" effect with net value growth multiples exceeding that of the commodities themselves [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall market is in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the future. The short - term decline is due to the weakening of market sentiment driven by the correction in the stock market, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. Technically, the futures price is oscillating in a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton and may face a direction selection in the short term [2]. - The demand for iron ore is in the off - season, with iron water production likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel apparent demand may be due to year - end rush construction. The global iron ore shipment is slightly rising but is expected to decline later due to southern hemisphere seasonal factors. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory is rising. Technically, the futures price is under pressure, but there may be support near the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot Roll - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties increased slightly, the inventory continued to rise, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3265 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) was 3230 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from last week; the spot price of hot - rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) was 3260 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or kill down. Wait for the later bottom signal to be confirmed and then add positions on dips. Pay attention to whether there is a possibility of an effective downward breakthrough in the short term [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The demand is in the off - season, and iron water production is likely to decline seasonally. The supply is affected by southern hemisphere seasonal factors, with the global shipment expected to decline. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory is rising [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 777.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.33% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract was 102 US dollars/dry ton, down 2.46% from last week. The price of Macfarlane powder (Qingdao Port) was 773 yuan/wet ton, down 2.03% from last week [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or kill down [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In late January 2026, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 717 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8 million tons, or 1.1%. It was 4 million tons less than at the beginning of the year, a decrease of 0.6%, and 17 million tons less than the same period last year, a decrease of 2.3% [6]. - Indonesian mining officials said on Tuesday that due to Indonesia's large - scale production reduction plan, local miners have suspended spot coal exports. The production quotas issued to major miners last month were 40% - 70% lower than the 2025 level [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in various ETFs, particularly in the metals and mining sectors, indicates a recovery in market sentiment following a period of volatility, driven by technical corrections and strategic reserve initiatives by major economies [1][2][4]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs have shown significant gains: - Cathay Metals ETF: +6.23% YTD +16.57% - Mining ETF: +5.80% YTD +18.51% - Cathay Metals LOF: +5.72% YTD +16.21% - Cathay Gold ETF: +5.03% YTD +12.07% - Gold Stocks ETF: +4.24% YTD +29.39% - Cathay Chemical ETF: +4.03% YTD +8.03% - Building Materials ETF: +4.03% YTD +10.91% [1]. Market Dynamics - The rebound in gold prices, reaching a peak of $4,949.99, and silver prices above $87, reflects a shift in market dynamics, with short positions being closed and new buying interest emerging [2]. - The increase in holdings of the iShares Silver Trust by 1,023.23 tons marks the third-largest single-day increase in its history, indicating strong investor interest [3]. Strategic Reserve Initiatives - The Chinese government is exploring the expansion of its copper strategic reserve, which may support copper prices, similar to the U.S. strategic reserve initiatives [3]. - Trump's plan to initiate a $12 billion mineral reserve aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing against supply disruptions, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing security over efficiency in resource management [4]. Future Outlook - The expectation of a resource bull market remains, supported by historical patterns where extreme volatility in gold prices often precedes significant upward trends [5]. - Long-term factors such as monetary easing, the safe-haven appeal of gold, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to sustain gold's upward trajectory [6]. - Investors are advised to adopt differentiated strategies, balancing short-term opportunities with long-term value, while being cautious of market volatility [7]. Related Investment Opportunities - Key ETFs to consider include: - Largest Oil ETF: 561360 - Unique Coal ETF: 515220 - Cathay Chemical ETF: 516220 - Largest Building Materials ETF: 159745 [9][10].

2026年元旦以来，铁矿石期货价格呈现冲高回落态势，当前铁矿石市场转向供增需减的弱平衡格局。随 着春节临近，终端需求步入季节性淡季，钢厂节前补库活动已近尾声，日均铁水产量出现阶段性见顶回 落迹象。反观供应端，海外发运保持持续增长态势，港口库存累积至高位。在供应宽松而需求季节性转 弱的格局下，铁矿石价格缺乏上行驱动，预计短线期价将以震荡偏弱走势为主。 西芒杜项目落地影响深远 全球铁矿石生产布局正经历结构性重塑，供应整体呈现"主流产地稳定、新兴项目发力"的格局。一直以 来，由于中国铁矿石品位偏低、生产成本高，且国内资源禀赋与庞大的钢铁产能不匹配，我国供给端高 度依赖进口。其中主要的海外供应源自澳大利亚与巴西，与此同时，以西芒杜项目为代表的新兴供应源 也逐渐成为重要的非主流增量来源。 相关数据显示，1月26日至2月1日，全球铁矿石发运总量环比增加116.2万吨，至3094.6万吨。年初以 来，全球发运累计值同比大幅增加1509.4万吨，这一增量主要来自澳洲及非主流国家。近期发运量仍处 于近3年同期高位，且短期仍有上升预期。与之对应的是，截至1月30日，国内矿山日均铁矿石产量为 46.87万吨，环比微降0.17%，而 ...

2026年初，印尼股市面临关键转折点。摩根士丹利资本国际公司明晟指数（MSCI）发布警告，由于上市公司流通股比例持续偏低、透明度不足（多数企 业存在股权集中问题），导致市场交易冷清、波动剧烈且存在价格操纵风险，该国可能从新兴市场降级为前沿市场。印尼面临的MSCI困境源于结构性流 通股短缺，但我们认为，印尼金融服务管理局、证券交易所与达纳塔拉主权财富基金的主动改革或将开辟破局之路。 我们认为短期内将流通股最低比例提至15%、增强数据透明度、并有效调配达纳塔拉资金，或有助于避免降级，稳定印尼在MSCI新兴市场指数中1%的权 重。与此同时，推动企业在港交所或新交所双重上市，可作为市场多元化的战略路径，明确的制度框架将支持企业实现全球化布局。若能迅速落实这些措 施，当前的结构性弱点有望转化为制度优势，从而培育一个更具流动性、更符合投资者需求的市场生态。然而，改革成效取决于能否高效执行，并需通过 与MSCI保持持续沟通以重塑市场信心。 从宏观经济基本面来看，我们继续对印尼2026年的发展前景保持乐观。在扩张性货币政策支撑、大宗商品行业持续活跃（受益于黄金、铜、镍、铝等国际 价格高位运行）、内需稳步增强以及民生必需品增值 ...

自2025年7月1日新矿产资源法施行后，市资规局迅速启动新旧政策衔接工作。通过全面摸排全市矿 业权现状，市局分类建立了矿业权出让收益缴纳台账，并对涉及政策衔接的6家探矿权、13家采矿权实 行"一矿一企一方案"管理。在明确征收类型、方式及计征标准的基础上，积极协调省自然资源厅和财 政、税务等部门及矿业权人，理顺了征缴流程、职责分工等关键环节，确保了首笔款项依法依规、顺畅 缴纳。 市资规局相关负责人表示，此次征缴工作的完成，为全市矿业权出让收益管理提供了实践样本。下 一步，市局将协同税务部门，持续推进其余矿业权出让收益的征收工作，确保国家矿产资源所有者权益 得到充分保障，为我市经济发展提供有力支撑。（傅琰 记者 杨紫婷） 记者日前从市自然资源和规划局获悉，我市已完成首笔申请在先矿业权出让收益的征缴工作。这标 志着新修订的矿产资源法正式施行以来，我市矿业权出让收益征缴工作在新法框架下全面启动。 据悉，此次征缴工作中，市资规局向镇江江之源渔业科技有限公司开具了金额为1.74万元的地热矿 业权出让收益缴款通知书，并由税务部门完成相关征缴程序。 ...

文：任泽平团队 摘要 目录 本报告通过复盘 1980-2024 年全球货币数据与资产回报，揭示货币超发对资产的影响，给出抵 御通胀的财富指南。 全球货币超发是普遍现象。 从 1980 年到 2024 年，全球广义货币占 GDP 的比重上升了 78 个 点到 141% ，多数经济体广义货币年均增速高于其名义 GDP 增速。 货币超发分三种类型： 一是以巴西、阿根廷、土耳其为代表的 通胀失控型 ，财政赤字货币化与 产业空心化，超发货币直接冲击商品市场，引发恶性通胀与本币信用崩塌；二是以美英为代表的 资 产价格膨胀型 ，超发货币被发达的资本市场吸纳，表现为资产价格显著膨胀、消费通胀却保持温 和；三是以中国、日本及部分东亚经济体为代表的 结构性沉淀型 ，在间接融资主导的体系下，大量 资金以存款和债务形式沉淀于银行体系或投向基建、地产等领域。 中国货币流向的转变：从地产老基建到资本市场新质生产力。 中国货币发行控制属于比较好 的， 表现为 M2/GDP 持续抬升与温和通胀。过去二十年，中国依靠房地产、基建的信用循环，货币 沉淀为实体资产、而非流向消费端。随着地产长周期见顶，传统蓄水池功能失效。货币流向发生根 本性转折， ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened mixed on February 3, with the Nasdaq up 0.36%, the Dow Jones up 0.22%, and the S&P 500 up 0.20% [1]. Index Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 49,515.08, up by 107.42 points, representing a 0.22% increase [2]. - Nasdaq Index stands at 23,676.02, up by 83.91 points, reflecting a 0.36% rise [2]. - S&P 500 is at 6,990.31, increasing by 13.87 points, which is a 0.20% gain [2]. Sector Performance - Mining stocks surged, with Coeur Mining rising over 8% and Pan American Silver increasing more than 6% [2]. - Storage sector showed strength, with Western Digital up over 4% and SanDisk up over 5% [3]. - Technology stocks mostly rose, with Intel increasing over 4% and Google rising more than 1% [4]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.40%, with notable declines in stocks such as Bilibili, Alibaba, and NetEase, each down over 2%, and Baidu and JD down over 1%. However, Xpeng Motors rose over 2% [4]. Notable Declines - PayPal experienced a significant drop, falling over 18% [5].

2月3日，美股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，截至发稿，纳指涨0.36%，道指 涨 0.22%，标普500指数涨 0.20%。 科技股多数上涨，英特尔涨超4%，谷歌涨逾1%。 热门中概股盘初涨跌互现，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.40%，哔哩哔哩、阿里巴巴、网易跌超2%，百 度、京东跌超1%；小鹏汽车涨超2%。 PayPal大跌超18%。 编辑丨瑜见 | 名称 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 现价 | | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 49515.08 107.42 0.22% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23676.02c 83.91 0.36% | | 标普500 | 6990.31 13.87 0.20% | 矿业股大涨，科尔黛伦矿业涨超8%，泛美白银涨超6%。 存储概念走强，西部数据涨超4%，闪迪涨超5%。 ...