研究中心能化团队 2025/12/15 甲醇聚烯烃早报 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/12/0 8 | 801 | 2088 | 2068 | 2425 | 2465 | 2435 | 2595 | 243 | 317 | -10 | 0 | -1092 | | 2025/12/0 9 | 801 | 2090 | 2053 | 2423 | 2465 | 2385 | 2590 | 243 | 317 | -15 | 5 | -1106 | | 2025/12/1 0 | 801 | 2095 | 2048 | 2435 | 2465 ...

01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 高库存下迎来淡季， PVC创新低 PVC周报 2025/12/13 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2550元/吨，周同比持平；山东电石价格报2930元/吨，周同比上涨25元/吨；兰炭陕西中料870元/吨，周同比持 平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润持续下滑，乙烯制利润低位运行，目前估值中性偏低。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率79.4%，环比下降0.5%；其中电石法79.7%，环比下降3%；乙烯法78.9%，环比上升5.5%。上周供应端负荷小幅下降，主 因宁波镇洋、宜宾天原、河南宇航开工下降，下周预期负荷回升。12月整体负荷预期仍然在高位，减产幅度偏小，叠加新装置释放产量，供 应压力较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面随着印度BIS认证政策撤销和反倾销税率市场预期不落地，年末出口 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 12月12日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4260元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4220元/ 吨，目前基差在40元/吨，走强11元/吨，基差处于中性水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 发布日期：2025年12月12日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.46个百分点至79.43%，PVC开工 率继续小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率略有下降，下游制品订单不佳。印度将 关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC 以价换量，只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨后出口签单回落，上周出口签单基 本稳定。本周社会库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在 调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一 步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。 新增产能上， ...

截止2025年12月12日，中国PVC产能利用率在79.43%，环比下降0.46%。 11月12日，PVC期货延续弱势震荡走势，截至发稿主力合约报4235.00元/吨，跌幅1.79%。 【消息面汇总】 2025年11月国内PVC产量在207.93万吨，环比减少2.30%，同比增加5.63%，1-11月累计2232.03万吨同比 增加4.37%。 机构观点 光大期货：综合来看，供给维持高位震荡，国内需求放缓，整体来看基本面驱动依旧偏空，估值方面随 着期货价格不断下探，基差较之前有所修复，套保空间收窄，因此PVC价格趋于底部震荡。 新湖期货：集中检修结束，根据检修计划，未来检修量处于较低水平，开工保持高位。利润进一步压 缩，生产企业有减产意愿。房地产新开工及施工节奏仍慢，管材型材开工略有提升，终端订单一般，按 需采购为主。印度公布PVC反倾销终裁暂未实际征税，关注实际征税情况；BIS政策取消后，市场预期 即将开始征收反倾销税。终端订单一般，供应提升，库存维持接近历史最高水平。短期价格重心仍以低 位震荡偏弱为主，供需层面仍存在压力，而成本利润方面亏损扩大，生产企业开始出现减产考虑，因此 继续大幅下跌的空间有限。中期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.89%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.5176万吨，环比减少0.10%,乙烯法企业产 量13.526万吨，环比增加1.46%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.07%，环比减少0.53个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.87%，环比减少0.22个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.4%，环比减少1.4个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring materials dropping to around 25.5%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. On the cost side, some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, leading to a drop in crude oil prices. In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products are starting to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments and industry associations, held a meeting to study and formulate standards for identifying costs of disorderly price competition, which provided some support for bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remained unchanged, and there was no further macro - level positive news. The spot trading atmosphere was light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future. Due to the possibility of new production capacity of plastics being put into operation this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring materials dropping to around 25.5%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has dropped. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, and orders are decreasing. The market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, and traders offer discounts to stimulate transactions. Although relevant meetings have provided some support for bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, and the macro - level has no further positive news. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future. Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity being put into operation this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 6,167 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,232 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,177 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.26%. The position volume decreased by 28,910 lots to 351,293 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,010 - 6,380 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The early - morning petrochemical inventory on Thursday remained flat week - on - week at 690,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Crude oil: The Brent crude oil 02 contract dropped below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $745 per ton [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.89%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.5176万吨，环比减少0.10%,乙烯法企业产 量13.526万吨，环比增加1.46%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.07%，环比减少0.53个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.87%，环比减少0.22个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.4%，环比减少1.4个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-10 供强需弱格局延续，聚烯烃连续走跌 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（-86），PP主力合约收盘价为6192元/吨（-83），LL华北现货为6600 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为6750元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6310元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为43元/吨（+66），LL 华东基差为193元/吨（+86）， PP华东基差为118元/吨（+83）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.1%（-0.5%），PP开工率为77.6%（-0.5%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为239.2元/吨（+37.0），PP油制生产利润为-440.8元/吨（+37.0），PDH制PP生产利 润为-681.7元/吨（-113.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为1.2元/吨（-58.1），PP进口利润为-226.1元/吨（+46.9），PP出口利润为-17.7美元/吨（+4.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为48.1%（-0.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.2%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOP ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.89%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.5176万吨，环比减少0.10%,乙烯法企业产 量13.526万吨，环比增加1.46%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.07%，环比减少0.53个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.87%，环比减少0.22个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.4%，环比减少1.4个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

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