Core Viewpoint - The launch of monthly average futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene at Dalian Commodity Exchange marks a significant development in China's petrochemical industry, providing diversified risk management tools and enhancing the integration of the industry with the futures market [1][2][6]. Industry Insights - The introduction of monthly average futures is expected to address the increasing demand for flexible and efficient pricing tools in the petrochemical sector, which is crucial for managing price volatility and supporting high-quality industry development [4][5]. - The new futures products will help establish a transparent and fair monthly average pricing signal system, aligning with international pricing practices and enhancing China's influence in global plastic trade [5][6]. Market Development - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has expanded its futures offerings to 26 products, with 10 specifically in the chemical sector, reflecting a robust development of its derivatives system and an enhanced capacity to serve the real economy [6]. - The launch of these futures is seen as a strategic move to improve the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in the market economy and to foster deeper cooperation between the exchange and the petrochemical industry [2][3].

Core Insights - The launch of the first monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene marks a significant development in China's commodity futures market [1][2] - These products are essential in the petrochemical industry, with China being a major producer and consumer, projected to produce 27.91 million tons, 23.44 million tons, and 34.76 million tons respectively in 2024 [1] - The introduction of these futures aims to provide more stable long-term procurement prices to mitigate frequent price fluctuations in the plastic chemical sector [1] Industry Impact - The listing of these monthly average price futures offers diversified and refined risk management tools for the petrochemical industry [2] - It is expected to strengthen the integration of the industry with the futures market, contributing to the healthy and stable development of the petrochemical sector [2]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 供需延续弱势 盘面底部震荡 20251026 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 周度观点及策略 周度观点 供应：上周PVC上游开工率76.57%，环比降低0.12个百分点，同比降低0.67个百分点，处在同期偏高位。本月新增青 岛海湾20万吨新产能，在年内新增产能不断释放背景下，供应依旧承压。 需求：上周管材、型材开工率继续回升。据隆众，下游部分管材开工促销带动开工率增加。不过后期逐步进入季节 性淡季。加之宏观房地产行业仍较低迷，需求将继续承压。出口方面，9月仍表现较好，但受印度政策影响亦存压力， 关注后期出口数据变化。 库存：上周国内PVC社会库存（41 家）103.52万吨，环比增加0.14%，同比增加24.87%。企业库存33.38万吨，环比降 低7.35%，同比降低11.9%。部分企业检修去库存，叠加上游继续向市场与外贸交货，在库库存减少。交易所注册仓单 库存继续增加。 观点：成本方面电石乙烯价格 ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on Polypropylene Industry Chain of Zhongtai Futures, October 26, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene market is under significant supply - demand pressure and will continue to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Main Contradictions - Not provided 2. Polypropylene Supply - Demand Situation Supply - This week, due to more maintenance devices, the national polypropylene production decreased slightly from 80.10 million tons last week to 77.76 million tons, with a decrease of 2.34 million tons. In the next two weeks, as device maintenance decreases, production is likely to remain around 80 million tons. The maintenance loss this week was 21.70 million tons, an increase of 5.68 million tons compared to last week. The import and export volumes remained stable at 6.60 million tons for imports and 5.40 million tons for exports per week. In September, 2.9 billion tons were imported and 2.376 billion tons were exported [6]. - Many new polypropylene devices were put into production in 2024 and 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 4.25 billion tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 5.35 billion tons [20][21]. Demand - Downstream demand is currently not very good, and there is no accurate data for calculation [42]. Inventory - This week, there was a slight reduction in inventory. The total inventory decreased from 98.52 million tons last week to 92.53 million tons, a decrease of 5.99 million tons. It is expected to continue to reduce slightly next week. Upstream and mid - stream inventories also decreased slightly [6]. 3. Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The basis overall showed a weakening trend. The East China basis decreased from - 50 last week to - 113 this week, the North China basis decreased from - 50 to - 140, and the South China basis decreased from - 50 to - 140. The basis opportunities are limited [8]. Spread - The inter - month spread fluctuated. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread decreased from - 52 to - 57. The spread between pellet and powder is too narrow, which has a certain supporting effect on pellet prices. The PP - 3MA spread on the 01 contract decreased from - 265 to - 154, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting PP and going long on MA. The LL - PP spread on the 01 contract decreased from 323 to 307, and there are few short - term opportunities [8]. 4. Summary and Outlook Upper, Middle, and Lower Reaches Views - Upstream: Although currently in the peak maintenance period, the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and the main idea is to actively sell goods. Despite low production profits, the upstream operating rate remains at a relatively high level without large - scale load reduction [10]. - Middle: The shipping situation has slightly deteriorated. After the rebound of the futures market, the shipping situation of spot - futures arbitrageurs has worsened [10]. - Lower: The replenishment willingness has decreased, and currently, the focus is on digesting previous inventories [10]. Strategy - Unilateral: Weakly fluctuating - Option: Selling call options strategy [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC supply-side开工率 has decreased slightly to 76.57%, but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has continued to rise, exceeding the levels of the past two years but still remaining low. The expected PVC exports from China in the fourth quarter have weakened. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, and the inventory pressure is still significant. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and improvement will take time. The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. With new production capacity coming online, and no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet, the cost side has strengthened. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC supply-side开工率 has decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has continued to rise, exceeding the levels of the past two years but still remaining low. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has lowered its November quotation by 30 - 40 US dollars/ton. India announced a new anti-dumping duty on imported PVC on August 14, with an increase of about 50 US dollars/ton for the Chinese mainland. The expected PVC exports from China in the fourth quarter have weakened. However, exports in September were still good, and the export orders have not significantly declined. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, and the inventory pressure is still significant. From January to September 2025, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has continued to decline and remains at a near-record low level in recent years. The improvement of the real estate market will take time. The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. New production capacity has come online, and there are no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet. The cost side has strengthened, and it is expected that PVC will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2601 contract increased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,702 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,749 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,708 yuan/ton, below the 20-day moving average, with a decline of 0.36%. The position increased by 14,264 lots to 1,227,305 lots [2]. - Basis: On October 24, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,635 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,708 yuan/ton. The current basis was -73 yuan/ton, strengthening by 17 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Companies such as Hangjin Technology and Shandong Xinfeng are undergoing maintenance. The PVC开工率 has decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacity includes Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons/year production capacity, which has been in full production since August; Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons/year production capacity, which is expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August; Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons/year production capacity, which was put into operation in early September and is currently near full production; and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 tons/year production capacities, which are operating at low loads after trial runs [4]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. From January to September, the commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 5.6%. The commercial housing sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 7.6%. From January to September, the new construction area of housing was 453.99 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%; among them, the new construction area of residential housing was 332.73 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. From January to September, the construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. From January to September, the completion area of housing was 311.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%; among them, the completion area of residential housing was 222.28 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%. Overall, the improvement of the real estate market will take time. As of the week of October 19, after the National Day holiday, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 54.79% week-on-week, but remained at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 23, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.13% week-on-week to 1.0352 million tons, a 24.87% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high (Longzhong has increased the social warehousing capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC market is currently in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With continuous release of new production capacity, weak real - estate demand, high inventory, and weak cost support, the PVC futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Cost Support Weakening - The price of calcium carbide, the main raw material for calcium carbide - based PVC, is continuously low, and the international crude oil market is weak, which weakens the cost support for ethylene - based PVC [2]. - Although some enterprises are in a loss state, the "alkali - for - chlorine" model of chlor - alkali integrated enterprises maintains production, and the cost's regulatory effect on supply is limited [3]. High Supply Pressure - In 2025, domestic PVC new production capacity features large - scale, technology switching, and concentrated production. The annual planned/expected new capacity is 2.5 - 3.5 million tons, and the actual new capacity is about 2.5 million tons, pushing the total domestic PVC capacity close to or exceeding 30 million tons [3]. - As of now, 1.45 million tons of new PVC capacity have been added this year, and another 0.5 million tons are to be fully released in the fourth quarter [3]. - After the holiday, the overall operating rate of PVC enterprises remains high, and the supply pressure has not been significantly relieved [4]. - The new PVC capacity is mainly ethylene - based, which has a cost - squeezing effect on calcium carbide - based PVC and intensifies industry competition [4]. Persistent Weak Demand - PVC is a typical post - real - estate cycle product, and the real - estate market has been weak since 2025. In the first three quarters of 2025, real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9%, new commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5%, and sales volume decreased by 7.9%, which directly suppresses the procurement demand in the hard - product fields such as pipes and profiles [4]. - Although the operating rate of some downstream enterprises has slightly increased after the weather turns cool, orders are generally insufficient, and enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on low - price rigid demand [5]. - The traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" did not arrive as expected, and the demand improvement expectation after the holiday was disappointed [5]. High Inventory Pressure - As of the week of October 17, PVC social inventory reached 1.0338 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.52%. The PVC futures warehouse receipt volume also reached a historical peak, indicating strong hedging willingness in the industry and difficult spot sales [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **PE**: Affected by geopolitics and macro - factors, international oil prices have rebounded strongly from a low level, enhancing cost support. However, the supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand follows up limitedly. Although the price has risen with cost support, the upside space is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Oil prices and propane prices have rebounded, increasing cost support. But the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly with large inventory de - stocking pressure. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6999元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6691元/吨（+72）。LL华北现货为6940元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为7000元/吨（+40），PP华东现货为6610元/吨（+50）。LL华北基差为 - 59元/吨（-3），LL华东基差为1元/吨（-23），PP华东基差为 - 81元/吨（-22） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为81.5%（-0.3%），PP开工率为75.9%（-2.3%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为404.0元/吨（-87.8），PP油制生产利润为 - 236.0元/吨（-87.8），PDH制PP生产利润为63.7元/吨（-104.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 138.6元/吨（+8.8），PP进口利润为 - 367.2元/吨（+84.5），PP出口利润为 - 7.6美元/吨（-39.9） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为47.1%（+4.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.6%（+0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（+0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.4%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost support has increased, but the supply is expected to rise with limited downstream demand. The price has risen with cost support, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Cost support has strengthened, but the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PVC futures market continues to show a weak downward trend post-National Day holiday, with the 2601 contract breaking through key support levels of 4800 yuan/ton and 4700 yuan/ton, reaching a low of 4644 yuan/ton [1] Cost Support Weakening - PVC prices lack effective support from the cost side, as the price of calcium carbide, a key raw material for calcium carbide method PVC, remains low due to the impact of staggered production in Inner Mongolia [2] - International crude oil prices have also been weak, with WTI crude oil futures dropping to a low of $56.63 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures falling to $60.11 per barrel, both hitting new lows since the second quarter of this year [2] - The expectation of oversupply in the global oil market continues to weigh on the outlook for oil prices, which in turn weakens the cost support for ethylene-based PVC [2] - Despite some companies facing losses, integrated chlor-alkali enterprises maintain production through a "sodium carbonate compensating for chlorine" model, resulting in stable PVC operating rates above 76% [2] Significant Supply Pressure - In 2025, new domestic PVC production capacity is characterized by large scale, technology switching, and concentrated commissioning, with an expected annual increase of 2.5 to 3.5 million tons [3] - As of now, 1.45 million tons of new PVC capacity has been added this year, with major plants like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua already in stable operation [3] - The overall operating rate of PVC enterprises remains high despite some planned maintenance, indicating persistent supply pressure [3] - New capacity primarily utilizes the ethylene method, which is more sensitive to crude oil and ethylene price trends, intensifying competition within the industry [3] Weak Demand Situation - PVC demand is closely tied to the real estate market, which has been weak since 2025, with real estate development investment down by 13.9% and new housing sales area declining by 5.5% year-on-year [4] - The weak construction and sales data directly suppresses the procurement demand for hard products like pipes and profiles [4] - Despite a slight recovery in downstream operating rates, overall orders remain insufficient, leading to pressure on profitability and a focus on low-price essential stock replenishment [6] - High inventory levels continue to accumulate, with PVC social inventory reaching 1.0338 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 33.52% [6] - The current PVC market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with multiple negative factors contributing to a lack of upward momentum [6]

Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The company has developed a proprietary mixed waste plastic deep catalytic cracking technology (CPDCC), achieving a product yield of over 92%, significantly higher than the traditional two-step method which has a yield of only 50-60% [2][3] - The CPDCC technology allows for continuous and stable feeding of solid waste plastics, addressing issues of coking at high temperatures [2] - The company utilizes a circulating fluidized bed reactor to solve heat supply challenges during the cracking process, particularly for solid waste plastics [2] Group 2: Sales and Production - The company’s 200,000 tons/year mixed waste plastic resource utilization project has begun normal sales of liquefied plastic cracking gas and light oil, with customers including Maohua Shihua and Fujian United Petrochemical [2][3] - The company plans to complete verification experiments for different catalyst formulations by the second half of 2025, aiming for full production by Q1 2026 [3] - Future expansion plans include scaling up to 200,000 tons and 600,000 tons based on local waste recovery volumes [3][4] Group 3: Market and Financial Strategy - The company anticipates the potential to process 15 million to 20 million tons of waste plastics in the next three to five years, with ongoing discussions for regional recycling projects [4] - Funding for expansion projects will be sourced through a combination of primary and secondary markets, as well as financial loans, with the main challenge being the pace of raw material recovery [4][5] - The company has established agreements with customers for green premium pricing on products, enhancing market competitiveness [5] Group 4: Environmental Impact and Market Capacity - Chemical recycling offers a new solution for waste plastic management, contrasting with physical recycling which ultimately leads to incineration and CO2 emissions [6][7] - The market capacity for chemical recycling is expected to be comparable to that of physical recycling, focusing on producing essential chemical raw materials like ethylene, propylene, and low-carbon aromatics [6][7]

【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少5.94个百分点至76.69%，PVC开工 率减少较多，但仍处于近年同期偏高水平。国庆节后归来，PVC下游恢复幅度较大，PVC下游开工超 过国庆节前水平，但仍处于历年同期偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执 行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中 中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，出 口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份， 房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进 一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比继续回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产 改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，50万吨/年的 万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨/年的天津渤化8月份试生产后，预计9月底稳定生产，20万吨/年的 青岛海湾9月上旬已投产，目前接近满负荷生产，30万 ...