1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin industry currently lacks positive drivers. Plastics are slightly better than PP. There is an opportunity to focus on the upward trend of the plastic - PP spread [1]. - For polyethylene (PE), the cost support from crude oil has weakened. Although supply pressure is expected to decrease, demand support is limited. Short - term prices may be under pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the positive spread opportunity of the 09 - 01 contract. - For polypropylene (PP), the cost support has weakened. Although the supply pressure is expected to ease, the restart of previous maintenance devices and the expansion of a 90 - million - ton/year device in mid - to - late July will weaken the positive impact on the supply side. Demand support is insufficient. Temporarily lacking positive drivers, PP prices may fluctuate downward, and the plastic - PP 09 contract spread may have an upward trend [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary 3.1.1 Polyethylene (PE) - Cost: Geopolitical premium has temporarily left. OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure on oil prices, and the EIA US crude oil inventory has unexpectedly increased. The refined oil cracking spread has not improved, and the global tariff trade situation still poses concerns about demand. Crude oil prices may decline, providing insufficient support for plastics [7]. - Supply: Current production is at a high level in recent years, with weekly capacity utilization and production increasing month - on - month. However, the restart expectation of previous maintenance devices is low, and there are new device maintenance plans, which support prices [7]. - Demand: The overall downstream start - up of PE has slightly decreased and is still lower than the same period in previous years. The off - season atmosphere continues, and terminal consumption is mainly on a "use - as - you - go" basis, with weak downstream orders [7]. - Import and Export: The import profits of LLDPE and HDPE have rebounded month - on - month, and the import profit of LDPE has increased [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory has increased month - on - month, and trade inventory is still accumulating [7]. - Gross Margin: Oil - based profits have increased, while coal - based profits have declined [7]. - Spread: The 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend [7]. 3.1.2 Polypropylene (PP) - Cost: Geopolitical premium has temporarily left. OPEC+ production increase and the high US crude oil inventory put pressure on oil prices. The refined oil cracking spread has not improved, and the global tariff trade situation still affects demand. The coal market is stable. Overall, the cost support for PP has weakened [9]. - Supply: PP capacity utilization and production have decreased month - on - month but are still at a high level in recent years. There are many device maintenance plans, but attention should be paid to the impact of the expansion of a 90 - million - ton/year device in mid - to - late July on the East China market supply [9]. - Demand: The overall downstream start - up rate has declined. Downstream raw material inventory has decreased, finished product inventory pressure is not large, and orders are generally weak [9]. - Import and Export: The import profit loss has widened month - on - month, and the export profit has slightly increased [9]. - Inventory: PP production enterprise inventory has different trends, trader inventory has slightly increased, and production enterprise inventory has decreased but is still at a high level in recent years [9]. - Gross Margin: Except for the decline in coal - based profits, oil - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP profits have increased [9]. - Spread: Similar to PE, the 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend [9]. 3.2 Next Week's Focus - On Wednesday (July 9): API and EIA crude oil inventories in the US for the week ending July 4, EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending July 4, EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending July 4, EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report, China's CPI annual rate in June, and the end of the US reciprocal tariff suspension period. - On Thursday (July 10): Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 5, EIA natural gas inventory in the US for the week ending July 4, and China's M2 money supply annual rate in June. - On Friday (July 11): IEA's monthly crude oil market report. - On Saturday (July 12): US oil rig count for the week ending July 11 [12]. 3.3 Polyethylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Spot prices have declined, and futures prices have fluctuated. As of July 4, the LLDPE futures main contract 09 was reported at 7282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous week. The LLDPE basis was - 2 yuan/ton, with little change from the previous week [15]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: As of the week ending July 4, due to the restart of devices such as Yulong Petrochemical and Shanghai SECCO, polyethylene production was 61.9 million tons, an increase of 2.36 million tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, an increase of 0.77% from the previous period [19]. - Maintenance Loss: As of the week ending July 4, the domestic polyethylene maintenance loss was 11.03 million tons, a decrease of 2.57 million tons from the previous period. The estimated maintenance loss next week is 10.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.97 million tons from this week [23]. - Downstream Start - up: As of the week ending July 4, the overall downstream start - up rate of polyethylene was 38.05%, a decrease of 3.18% from the previous week, still lower than the same period in previous years. The agricultural film start - up rate decreased by 0.26%, and the PE packaging film sample enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.5% [33]. - Downstream Raw Material Inventory: As of the week ending July 4, the agricultural film raw material inventory increased by 0.14 days to 8.18 days, the PE packaging film raw material inventory increased by 0.11 days to 8.04 days, and the PE pipe raw material inventory decreased by 0.07 days to 7.13 days [35]. - Import Profit: On July 4, the import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE were - 6 yuan/ton (a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous week), 126 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 604 yuan/ton (an increase of 57 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [44]. - Profit Margin: As of the week ending July 4, the oil - based linear cost was 7646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 338 yuan/ton from the previous period; the coal - based linear profit was 5869 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton from the previous period [46]. - Futures Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts: As of July 4, the plastic futures trading volume increased by 13,215 lots to 355,370 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest decreased by 22,961 lots to 580,694 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 100 to 5,831 lots [51][53]. 3.4 Polypropylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Polypropylene spot prices have weakly declined, with a price fluctuation range of 7166 - 7204 yuan/ton. As of July 4, the PP futures main contract 09 was reported at 7078 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous week. The term basis has narrowed, and the East China polypropylene basis has weakened to 64 yuan/ton [55]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: As of the week ending July 4, domestic polypropylene production was 77.37 million tons, a decrease of 1.55 million tons or 1.96% from the previous week; compared with the same period last year, it increased by 12.52 million tons or 19.31%. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.44%, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous period [59]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 4, the domestic polypropylene device weekly loss was 21.632 million tons, a 11.93% increase from the previous week. Next week, the maintenance loss is expected to decline. The average capacity utilization rate is expected to slightly rebound to around 77.5% [63]. - Downstream Start - up: As of the week ending July 4, the overall downstream start - up rate of PP decreased. The plastic weaving start - up rate decreased by 1% to 42.2%, the BOPP start - up rate decreased by 0.14% to 60.27%, and the injection molding product start - up rate decreased by 0.72% to 51.33% [67]. - Downstream Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory and Orders: As of the week ending July 4, downstream raw material inventory decreased, finished product inventory pressure was not large, and orders were generally weak. The average order days of the polypropylene downstream product industry were 7.59 days, a 1.30% decrease from the previous week, and the downstream average start - up rate is expected to continue to decline next week [70]. - Inventory: As of July 4, polypropylene commercial inventory was 78.58 million tons. Production enterprise total inventory decreased by 1.49 million tons to 57.01 million tons, trader inventory increased by 1.46 million tons to 14.97 million tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.04 million tons to 6.57 million tons [77]. - Import and Export Profits: As of the week ending July 4, the PP import gross margin was - 523 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month - on - month. The export profit was - 1.59 yuan/ton, a slight increase from the previous period [81]. - Futures Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts: As of July 4, the PP futures trading volume decreased by 16,487 lots to 255,730 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest increased by 770 lots to 593,335 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 112 lots to 7,292 lots [90][92][94]. 3.5 Spread Tracking - The 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend. As of July 4, the plastic 09 - 01 futures contract spread was 39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week. The PP 09 - 01 futures contract spread was 36, a decrease of 26 from the previous week. The 09 - contract L - PP spread was 204 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [97][101].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter-period: None [3] Core View of the Report - The macroeconomic boost continues, the commodity atmosphere is slightly pushed up, international oil prices and propane prices have slightly increased, and the cost support for polyolefins has strengthened [2] - Some previously overhauled plants have restarted, leading to higher capacity utilization and increased domestic supply, with Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 500,000-ton/year PP Line 4 successfully put into production [2] - The terminal industry is still in the off-season, with the agricultural film industry operating at a low level and other terminal industries maintaining weak operations. There are no signs of improvement in downstream demand, and factory operations remain at a low level, intensifying the expected supply-demand contradiction [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7284元/吨（-4），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（+2），LL华北现货为7190元/吨（+20），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-94元/吨（+24），LL华东基差为16元/吨（+4），PP华东基差为46元/吨（-2） [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%） [1] - PE油制生产利润为212.3元/吨（-154.6），PP油制生产利润为-207.7元/吨（-154.6），PDH制PP生产利润为243.3元/吨（-10.4） [1] III. Polyolefin Non-standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为-99.6元/吨（-1.2），PP进口利润为-538.3元/吨（-1.3），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.2） [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant growth and transformation of China's petrochemical industry, particularly in the plastic sector, emphasizing the importance of pricing strategies in international trade and the increasing role of futures markets in establishing price benchmarks [1][2][3]. Industry Development - In 2024, China's petrochemical industry is projected to generate revenue of 16 trillion yuan, with the plastic sector contributing approximately 2.3 trillion yuan [2]. - Plastic product exports have surpassed 90 billion USD, accounting for 35% of the global market, with an annual growth rate of over 6% in exports to Southeast Asia [2]. - The import volume of PVC is expected to decrease by 20.4% year-on-year to 403,000 tons, while exports will reach 3.108 million tons, representing 14% of total production [2]. - PP imports are projected to drop by 12.6% to 2.356 million tons, while exports will increase by 88.2% to 2.162 million tons [2]. Pricing Concerns - Pricing methods in international trade are a major concern for companies, with many relying on spot price indices or negotiated prices [3][4]. - Issues with index pricing include lack of transparency, data collection delays, and the inability to reflect market fluctuations promptly [3][4]. - Companies are increasingly looking to the futures market for pricing solutions to mitigate risks associated with price volatility during long shipping cycles [4]. Futures Market Utilization - The adoption of futures pricing and related trading models has become widespread in the domestic chemical market, with over 90% of spot trades in certain chemicals using DCE futures contracts as pricing references [5][6]. - DCE has implemented over 20 optimization measures since 2021 to adapt to industry needs and enhance risk management [6][7]. - Innovations in delivery systems, such as group delivery and trade warehouse systems, have improved the efficiency and accessibility of futures trading for chemical companies [7][8]. Cost Reduction Initiatives - DCE has revised brand management policies to lower participation costs for chemical companies, resulting in over 97% of stored products being exempt from inspection [8][9]. - The reduction of risk deposits for delivery warehouses has alleviated financial pressure on companies, with over 31 million yuan in risk deposits returned [8][9]. Global Competitiveness - The use of futures pricing in exports has enhanced price transparency and efficiency, allowing companies to better manage profits and risks in the global market [14]. - The establishment of a recognized domestic futures market can help mitigate the impact of international price fluctuations and strengthen national economic security [14].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-02 需求淡季，下游刚需采购 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7249元/吨（-12），PP主力合约收盘价为7044元/吨（-26），LL华北现货为7190 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为-59元/吨（-38），LL 华东基差为51元/吨（-38）， PP华东基差为76元/吨（-14）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为76.4%（-2.3%），PP开工率为79.3%（-0.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为378.7元/吨（+19.9），PP油制生产利润为-51.3元/吨（+19.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为274.9元/吨（+6.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-48.2元/吨（+10.1），PP进口利润为-496.8元/吨（-182.2），PP出口利润为23.2美元/吨 （+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（+0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.0%（-1.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4 ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-07-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4821 | -68 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 977340 | 184615 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 982274 | 56201 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 748348 | 31094 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 780566 | 44342 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -32218 | -13248 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4965 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4817.31 | 0 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4965 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4889.69 | -4.06 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral, and there is no rating for inter - period investment [3] Core View - The international oil price and propane price continue to be weak, so the cost - side support for polyolefins is weak [2] - The supply has slightly increased due to the return of previously shut - down maintenance units and the successful commissioning of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP unit. However, petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional maintenance season, and future inventory unit maintenance will be intensive, which will relieve some of the pressure from new supply [2] - The downstream is in a seasonal off - season with limited demand boost. The agricultural film industry is at a low level of operation, and other terminal industries are also operating weakly. Rigid demand for restocking is expected to be weak [2] - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7,261 yuan/ton (- 41), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,070 yuan/ton (- 33), the LL North China spot price is 7,240 yuan/ton (- 30), the LL East China spot price is 7,350 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PP East China spot price is 7,160 yuan/ton (- 20), the LL North China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+ 11), the LL East China basis is 89 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the PP East China basis is 90 yuan/ton (+ 13) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 76.4% (- 2.3%), and the PP operating rate is 79.3% (- 0.3%) [1] - The PE oil - based production profit is 358.8 yuan/ton (- 7.5), the PP oil - based production profit is - 51.2 yuan/ton (- 7.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 268.5 yuan/ton (+ 156.7) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific price difference data is provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 58.3 yuan/ton (- 5.8), the PP import profit is - 314.6 yuan/ton (- 49.0), and the PP export profit is 22.0 US dollars/ton (+ 0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (+ 0.2%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.0% (- 1.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.2% (- 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2]

库存：截至6月26日，PVC社会库存新样本统计环比增加1.03%至57.52万吨，同比减少38.06%；其中华 东地区在52.37万吨，华南地区在5.15万吨。 【PVC现货】 国内PVC粉市场现货价格窄幅整理。贸易商基差报盘变化不大，点价成交价格优势不明显，一口价报盘 基本稳定，高价仍然难成交。下游采购积极性较低，市场内现货成交不佳。5型电石料，华东主流现汇 自提4720-4830元/吨，华南主流现汇自提4800-4830元/吨，河北现汇送到4500-4620元/吨，山东现汇送到 4650-4690元/吨。 【PVC开工、库存】 开工：截至6月26日，PVC粉整体开工负荷率为76.81%，环比提升0.07个百分点；其中电石法PVC粉开 工负荷率为80.43%，乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率为67.38%。 【PVC行情展望】 PVC短期矛盾未进一步激化；但中长线看PVC供需矛盾突出，主因国内地产端仍呈现下滑趋势对终端需 求形成拖累，而PVC行业未见明显负反馈及出清。目前PVC检修环比减少，叠加6-7有新装置投产预计 供应端预计压力将增大。而需求表现为内需淡季驱动不足；出口方面BIS再度延期后出口量将得以维 持。近 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/23 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/06/1 6 800 7290 7375 9575 8000 845 906 -47 7338 -50 83 5734 2025/06/1 7 810 7300 7415 9750 8000 845 917 -13 7317 -20 80 5556 2025/06/1 8 820 7350 7465 9800 8500 850 917 -9 7418 -50 79 5556 2025/06/1 9 830 7400 7500 9950 8500 850 917 27 7462 -50 76 5556 2025/06/2 0 830 7400 7515 9925 8500 850 917 27 7415 -60 74 5437 日度变化 0 0 15 -25 0 0 0 0 -47 -10 -2 -119 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游去库，煤化工去库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，09基差华北0 ...

聚烯烃周报 | 2025-06-22 地缘冲突提振，聚烯烃高位整理 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7415元/吨（-47），PP主力合约收盘价为7242元/吨（-32），LL华北现货为7480 元/吨（+30），LL华东现货为7450元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7290元/吨（+10），LL华北基差为65元/吨（+77），LL 华东基差为35元/吨（+27）， PP华东基差为48元/吨（+42）。 以色列伊朗地缘局势紧张，原油与丙烷价格大幅走高，聚烯烃成本端支撑增强明显。短停检修装置较多，未来预 计陆续开车，短期供应压力不大，镇海炼化4线50万吨/PP装置预计近期投产，未来供应有增加趋势。农膜开工季 节性淡季，需求端持续低迷，预计开工持稳，整体运行负荷处于低位。包装膜开工率同比偏低，塑编开工走低， 终端备货意愿偏低，刚需采购为主。生产企业库存小幅累积，中游贸易商环节库存走低，聚烯烃维持供需两弱格 局，宏观面不确定性较强。 策略 单边：中性。 跨期：无。 风险 宏观政治经济、原油价格波动、下游需求恢复情况 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is neutral for unilateral trading, and there is no rating for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, causing a significant increase in international oil prices. This has strengthened the cost support for polyolefins. PE's supply remains high as some previously - shut - down plants have resumed operation, while PP's supply pressure is large due to the return of shut - down plants. The upstream inventory reduction is limited. In the seasonal off - season, downstream demand is weak, mainly driven by rigid demand from end - users. Although the agricultural film industry has bottomed out, it is still at a low level, and demand is not sufficient to drive the market. PDH - based PP production is in the red, with new and extended plant shutdowns, providing strong cost support for PP [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7338元/吨（+80），PP主力合约收盘价为7133元/吨（+44），LL华北现货为7300元/吨（+100），LL华东现货为7350元/吨（+100），PP华东现货为7180元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为 - 38元/吨（+20），LL华东基差为12元/吨（+20），PP华东基差为47元/吨（ - 14） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.2%（+1.8%），PP开工率为78.6%（+1.6%）；PE油制生产利润为 - 244.8元/吨（ - 295.9），PP油制生产利润为 - 584.8元/吨（ - 295.9），PDH制PP生产利润为33.4元/吨（+97.2） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Spread of Polyolefins - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 205.0元/吨（ - 12.8），PP进口利润为 - 352.7元/吨（+62.1），PP出口利润为6.7美元/吨（ - 7.6） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（ - 0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（ - 0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（ - 0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text