Core Viewpoint - The domestic polypropylene (PP) market experienced a slight rebound in late August due to supply-side reform news, but overall fundamentals remain weak, leading to a month-on-month decline in price levels for August [1][6]. Supply Side - The supply side saw a reduction in maintenance efforts with the restart of facilities such as Quanzhou Guoheng, Guangdong Petrochemical, Langgang Petrochemical, and Jingbo Petrochemical. Additionally, new capacity from CNOOC Dasha was steadily released, resulting in a relatively abundant supply in the PP front market, which increased supply pressure [3]. - Upstream companies maintained a strong willingness to sell, with price reductions being a common strategy to stimulate transactions, further exerting pressure on PP prices [3]. Demand Side - In August, there was no significant improvement in new orders from downstream PP sectors, with limited increases in operating rates. Specifically, the average operating load for plastic weaving sample enterprises was 41.67%, up 0.67 percentage points month-on-month; injection molding sample enterprises had an operating load of 44.33%, up 0.93 percentage points; while BOPP film sample enterprises saw a decrease to 57.92%, down 1.28 percentage points [6]. - Overall, most enterprises experienced limited order improvements, with cautious procurement focused on low-price essential replenishment, indicating insufficient support from the demand side for the PP market [6]. Future Outlook - Despite the anticipated continued growth in PP supply, there is hope that the traditional demand peak in September ("Golden September") may lead to a substantial improvement in end-consumer demand, potentially raising the price levels in the PP market [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the given content. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - The document presents a table of PVC - related data including percentages and numerical values, but specific interpretations are not clear from the data alone [3] - A PVC main weekly data summary table shows various PVC - related data such as prices, production,开工率, inventory, and cost - profit data, along with their changes compared to the previous week [4] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - There are descriptions and charts related to PVC futures and spot market quotes, including price ranges, basis, and price differences between different contracts [6][7][8] PART THREE: PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Multiple charts show historical data related to PVC supply - demand fundamentals such as production,开工率, inventory, and price differences over different time periods from 2019 - 2025 [16][18][19] - Charts also display data on related factors like VCM CIF prices, export prices, and their historical trends [78][80][81]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: Port inventories are significantly accumulating, with high imports and current inventories. The inland supply is expected to return, and the traditional demand will enter the peak season later. Attention should be paid to whether the demand can support after the inland supply returns. If the inventories deteriorate significantly, methanol is likely to see a valuation decline [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventories of the two major oil companies are neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventories remain flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventories are neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [5]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream inventories of the two major oil companies and the mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be eased to a neutral level [5]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2297 to 2235, a decrease of 62; the South China spot price decreased from 2290 to 2259, a decrease of 31; the Lunan converted - to - futures price decreased from 2505 to 2505 (no change); the Southwest converted - to - futures price remained at 2480; the Hebei converted - to - futures price remained at 2525; the Northwest converted - to - futures price decreased from 2678 to 2655, a decrease of 23; the CFR China price decreased from 263 to 261, a decrease of 2; the CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 322; the import profit remained unchanged; the main - contract basis decreased from - 5 to - 140, a decrease of 135; the MTO profit on the futures market remained at - 1237 [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 842. The North China LL price remained at 7230; the East China LL price decreased from 7365 to 7350, a decrease of 15; the East China LD price remained at 9625; the East China HD price remained at 7550; the LL US dollar price remained at 860; the LL US Gulf price remained at 840; the import profit remained at - 162; the main - contract futures price decreased from 7380 to 7358, a decrease of 22; the basis decreased from - 160 to - 140, an increase of 20; the two - oil inventory remained at 73; the warehouse receipts remained at 7669 [5]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6500 to 6550, an increase of 50; the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 760; the East China PP price decreased from 6955 to 6920, a decrease of 35; the North China PP price decreased from 7003 to 6983, a decrease of 20; the Shandong powder price remained at 6830; the East China copolymer PP price decreased from 7202 to 7190, a decrease of 12; the PP US dollar price remained at 865; the PP US Gulf price remained at 980; the export profit remained at - 20; the main - contract futures price decreased from 7038 to 7020, a decrease of 18; the basis remained at - 90; the two - oil inventory remained at 73; the warehouse receipts remained at 14055 [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2350; the Shandong caustic soda price remained at 887; the calcium - carbide - based East China price decreased from 4840 to 4780, a decrease of 60; the ethylene - based East China price remained at 5500; the calcium - carbide - based South China price remained at 5450; the calcium - carbide - based Northwest price remained at 4500; the imported US dollar price (CFR China) remained at 710; the export profit remained at 525; the Northwest comprehensive profit remained at 356; the North China comprehensive profit remained at - 244; the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 160 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - New capacity such as the 450,000 - ton/year PP new device of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical Phase II Line 2 has been put into production, intensifying the abundant supply situation. The operating rate of PP inventory devices remained flat month - on - month, and the inventory in upstream and mid - stream decreased slightly. The number of PE maintenance devices increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure, but the overall operating rate was still high, and production enterprises had inventory accumulation and de - stocking pressure. International oil prices showed a weak trend, oil - based production profits were acceptable, propane prices rose slightly, and PDH - based PP profits were near the break - even point. Downstream demand recovered slowly, agricultural films entered the seasonal demand conversion stage, overall order follow - up was slow, and terminal operating rates recovered slightly [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report shows the plastic futures main contract trend and the LL East China - main contract basis, as well as the polypropylene futures main contract trend and the PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 78.7% (- 5.5%), PP operating rate was 78.2% (+ 0.3%). PE oil - based production profit was 384.7 yuan/ton (+ 130.5), PP oil - based production profit was - 175.3 yuan/ton (+ 130.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 64.2 yuan/ton (+ 38.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - The report presents price differences such as HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [27] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was - 26.9 yuan/ton (+ 12.1), PP import profit was - 519.2 yuan/ton (+ 32.4), PP export profit was 31.9 US dollars/ton (- 4.0) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (+ 0.7%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.9% (+ 0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.0% (+ 0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.7% (- 0.5%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report shows inventory data of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [74][80][84]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The price of polypropylene futures 2601 contract rebounded after reaching a low of 6970 yuan/ton, driven by optimistic macroeconomic expectations [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference have increased market expectations for a rate cut in September, with a 91.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The financial market is also betting on two rate cuts by the end of the year, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2: Cost Factors - Geopolitical premiums have decreased, and cost factors for polypropylene are weakening, particularly due to stabilizing domestic coal prices while crude oil prices lack upward momentum [2] - Recent diplomatic efforts between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict have contributed to a reduction in geopolitical risks, further impacting oil prices [2] - The oil market is shifting focus to an oversupply situation, which is putting additional pressure on crude oil prices and weakening cost support for polypropylene [2] Group 3: Production and Supply - Polypropylene production has seen a slight increase due to the resumption of operations at facilities like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangdong Petrochemical, with an average capacity utilization rate of 78.22% [3] - Domestic polypropylene production reached 78630 tons last week, a week-on-week increase of 320 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 118400 tons, reflecting a growth rate of 17.73% [3] - Despite delays in new production facilities, the overall trend indicates a potential for continued recovery in polypropylene production [3] Group 4: Demand and Market Conditions - Demand for polypropylene remains weak, with downstream consumption not meeting expectations, leading to price declines as companies reduce inventory [4] - The average operating rate in downstream industries is generally increasing, but some companies are halting operations due to insufficient orders, particularly in the BOPP sector [4] - The overall market sentiment is improving due to macroeconomic factors, but the reality of weak demand and rising supply pressures suggests that polypropylene futures may stabilize in a fluctuating manner [4]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on polyolefins (plastic PP) dated August 27, 2024, prepared by the Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemicals Research Department [2] - The report includes relevant data, market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant charts [3][5][11] Group 2: Relevant Data Plastic and PP Futures and Spot Prices - Plastic futures prices (L2605, L2509, L2601) decreased by -0.62%, -0.50%, -0.51% respectively; PP futures prices (PP2605, PP2509, PP2601) decreased by -0.44%, -0.37%, -0.35% respectively [4] - Spot prices of North China linear and East China linear decreased by -0.41% and -0.27% respectively; North China drawstring and East China drawstring decreased by -0.15% and -0.43% respectively [4] Basis and Spread - Plastic 09, 01, 05 basis increased by 7, 8, 16 respectively; PP 09, 01, 05 basis decreased by -4, -5, 1 respectively [4] - Plastic 9 - 1 spread increased by 1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 8; PP 9 - 1 spread decreased by -1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 6 [4] Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil main contract price increased by 0.01%; naphtha price increased by 1.27%; Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by 1.20%; Shandong propylene price remained unchanged [4] Profits - Plastic import profit decreased by 5.82%, oil - made PE profit increased by -627.48%; PP import profit decreased by 2.76%, oil - made PP profit increased by -28.44% [4] Production Ratios - Linear production ratio remained unchanged at 36.1%, PE maintenance ratio remained unchanged at 14.1%; PP drawstring production ratio and maintenance ratio data were unavailable [4] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Review - In the plastic spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China showed partial declines or fluctuations; in the PP spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased [6] Relevant Information - Main producers' inventory was 70.5 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 3.42%; inventory in the same period last year was 72 tons [7] Logical Analysis - New plastic production capacity will slow down in the second half of the year, while PP will face the launch of a 900,000 - ton new device in Ningbo Daxie Phase II, with greater production pressure than PE [9] - Inventory maintenance is expected to decline significantly in the fourth quarter; there is still an expectation of peak - season demand in "Golden September and Silver October", downstream start - up has rebounded, but the current pace is slow, and orders are weaker year - on - year [9] - Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [10] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] Group 5: Relevant Charts - The report includes 18 charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, upstream prices, profits, production ratios, and inventory of plastic and PP contracts [12][15][17][20][24][27][31][34][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The second - line 450,000 - ton/year PP new device of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical's second - phase project has been officially put into operation, and the first - line 450,000 - ton/year is expected to be put into operation next month, with increasing supply pressure in the medium - to - long term. The number of PE parking and maintenance devices has increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure, but the overall current operation is still at a relatively high level, with inventory accumulation in production enterprises and certain de - stocking pressure upstream. The PP operation rate has remained flat month - on - month, with a slight decline in inventory at upstream and mid - stream levels. International oil prices are showing a weak trend, oil - based production profits are acceptable, propane prices have risen slightly, and PDH - based PP profits are near the break - even point. Downstream demand is recovering slowly, with the agricultural film entering the seasonal demand conversion stage and slow follow - up of terminal orders for packaging films, plastic weaving, etc. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Charts include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profits and Operation Rates - PE operation rate is 78.7% (- 5.5%), PP operation rate is 78.2% (+ 0.3%). PE oil - based production profit is 254.2 yuan/ton (- 78.3), PP oil - based production profit is - 325.8 yuan/ton (- 78.3), PDH - based PP production profit is 25.7 yuan/ton (- 62.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Charts involve HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][35][36] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 39.0 yuan/ton (+ 5.2), PP import profit is - 551.6 yuan/ton (+ 5.3), PP export profit is 35.9 US dollars/ton (- 0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operation and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operation rate is 14.5% (+ 0.7%), PE downstream packaging film operation rate is 49.9% (+ 0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operation rate is 42.0% (+ 0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operation rate is 60.7% (- 0.5%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report does not provide specific inventory data, but mentions that PE production enterprises have inventory accumulation and upstream has de - stocking pressure, while PP upstream and mid - stream inventory has declined slightly [2]

Supply Situation - PVC production companies are currently operating at a high capacity despite being in a loss-making state, with an operating load of 77.61% as of August 22, which is an increase of 0.84 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average loss for domestic calcium carbide method PVC is 220 yuan/ton, compared to a profit of 200 yuan/ton in the same period last year, while the ethylene method PVC has an average loss of 580 yuan/ton, up from a loss of 190 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The domestic PVC weekly production is around 465,000 tons, with a demand of approximately 453,000 tons, resulting in a surplus of about 12,000 tons [2] Inventory Levels - Although PVC inventory is lower than the same period last year, there has been a significant increase in social inventory since July, with a sample data of 852,700 tons, up 5.09% week-on-week and down 6.50% year-on-year [3] - The East China region has a social inventory of 784,100 tons, up 5.33% week-on-week and down 9.91% year-on-year, while South China has 68,700 tons, up 2.46% week-on-week and up 64.69% year-on-year [3] Demand Dynamics - The real estate sector, a major downstream market for PVC, is experiencing a downturn, with a 12% year-on-year decrease in cumulative real estate development investment from January to July, and a 19.4% decline in newly started construction area [4] - The operating load for PVC pipe enterprises is at 33.61% and for profile enterprises at 37.65%, indicating a lack of significant change in downstream enterprise operations [4] Export Trends - From January to July, domestic PVC exports reached 2.6595 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 53.06% [5] - India, a key export destination, has imposed anti-dumping duties on PVC imports from China, which could diminish China's price advantage and affect future export volumes [6] - The anti-dumping tax is expected to be implemented in September, leading to a potential surge in exports in August as companies rush to fulfill orders [6] Market Outlook - The overall PVC market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with the supply side remaining robust despite poor operating conditions for producers [7] - The demand from the real estate market is unlikely to show significant improvement, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties by India may further impact export dynamics [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - V2601 oscillated with a bullish bias, closing at 5047 yuan/ton. This week, the restart of overhauled devices and the annual inspection of a 400,000 - ton device at Formosa Plastics Ningbo are expected to increase production and capacity utilization. There are many PVC production plans in August, increasing medium - to - long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping investigation in India increases export difficulties, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction and putting pressure on prices. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4900 and the pressure around 5100 [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5047 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the trading volume was 1,088,126 lots, up 395,393 lots; the open interest was 1,008,160 lots, up 26,929 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures was 853,070 lots, up 1,523 lots; the short position was 934,697 lots, up 19,110 lots; the net long position was - 81,627 lots, down 17,587 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4762.31 yuan/ton, down 10.77 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4985 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4857.5 yuan/ton, down 5.62 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 725 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 279 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2565 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan; in the Northwest, it was 2337 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 181 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.61%, down 2.72 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 76.81%, down 3.15 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.59%, down 1.67 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 508,000 tons, up 15,200 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 450,200 tons, up 15,000 tons; in the South China region, it was 57,800 tons, up 200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 281.0593 billion yuan, up 36.3043 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.7%, down 2.69 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 21.81%, down 0.22 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.22%, up 0.01 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.22%, unchanged [3] Industry News - On August 25, the market price of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou increased by 0 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, ranging from 4750 to 4830 yuan/ton. From August 16 to August 22, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.72%. As of August 21, the social inventory of PVC increased by 5.09% month - on - month to 852,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.50% [3]

Group 1 - The overall PVC market is experiencing a downward trend due to rapid upstream capacity growth and weak downstream demand, with approximately 50% of demand affected by the real estate sector, leading to an overall supply surplus [1][2] - Recent significant price declines in the PVC market are driven by two main factors: the commissioning of new production facilities increasing supply and the final ruling of anti-dumping duties on PVC from India, which negatively impacts China's PVC export demand [1][4] - The PVC market is expected to continue fluctuating downwards unless macroeconomic factors change, with potential strategies for achieving balance including reducing upstream production through price cuts or increasing exports [1][3] Group 2 - Three new PVC production facilities have been commissioned, adding a total of 1.1 million tons per year to the market, exacerbating the supply surplus [3] - From January to July, PVC exports from China increased significantly, totaling 2.29 million tons, a 57% year-on-year increase, which had previously alleviated domestic supply pressures [4] - The increase in anti-dumping duties imposed by India on Chinese PVC will significantly reduce the price competitiveness of Chinese exports to India, further contributing to the ongoing supply surplus [4]