投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪消退，盘面价格回落 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪消退，盘面价格回落 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，尚未有产能退出，供大于求格局短期难改，供给压力偏大。（2）PVC生产企业产能利用率在78.74%环比减少 | | | | 0.89%，同比减少3.29%；其中电石法在80.00%环比增加0.02%，同比减少1.71%，乙烯法在75.74%环比减少3.05%，同比减少7.15%。（3）本周PVC生产 | | | | 企业检修损失量在4.155万吨，较上期增加0.57万吨。本周常规检修略有增加，检修损失量环比上周增加15.90% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. The comprehensive corporate profit is at a relatively low - neutral level, but the supply reduction is small and the production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although there may be a short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1, there is significant medium - term export pressure. In the context of strong supply and weak demand in China, the domestic demand is poor and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. In the short term, electricity price expectations, export - rush, and strong commodity sentiment support PVC, but in the medium term, the idea of short - selling on rallies should be adopted before substantial industry production cuts [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan week - on - week; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,855 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan week - on - week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali has dropped to a low level again, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased, and the current valuation is relatively low - neutral [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. The utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 80%, unchanged from the previous period, and the utilization rate of ethylene - based production is 75.7%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period. Last week, the supply - side load declined, mainly due to the reduced loads of Fujian Wanhua, Shandong Hengtong, and Shaanxi Jintai. It is expected that the load will further decline next week. The overall load in January is still expected to be high, with a small reduction in production and large supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: Currently in the off - season for exports, but with the planned cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1, there is a short - term rush for exports. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable. The load of the pipe industry is 37%, a 1.6% increase from the previous period; the load of the film industry is 66.1%, a 0.4% decrease from the previous period; the load of the profile industry is 31.5%, a 1.6% increase from the previous period; the overall downstream load is 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 884,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from the previous period [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 308,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period; the social inventory was 1.178 million tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous period; the overall inventory was 1.486 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts has increased. Currently, the inventory has started to accumulate. In the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, domestic demand has entered the off - season. Short - term exports may surge due to the export rush, but there is significant medium - term export pressure and it is difficult to digest the high production volume [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple figures are presented, including PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, PVC spot basis, PVC 5 - 9 spread, PVC active contract positions and trading volume, and PVC total positions and trading volume, which reflect the price and trading conditions of the PVC futures and spot market [15][16][18][25][27] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Figures show the in - factory inventory of PVC (including calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based), social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, warehouse receipts, and the profits of different production methods (Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integrated comprehensive profit, PVC calcium carbide - based profit, PVC ethylene - based profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit) [32][34][40][41] 3.4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have rebounded. The prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide have increased week - on - week. The report also presents figures on calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, the market price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi, the self - pick - up price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, the market price of liquid chlorine in Shandong, and the CFR spot price of Northeast Asian ethylene, which comprehensively reflect the cost situation of the PVC industry [11][47][48] 3.5. Supply Side - The historical trend of PVC production capacity is presented, along with the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, including the details of each device (location, process, production capacity, and commissioning time). The operating rates of PVC (overall, calcium carbide - based, and ethylene - based) and weekly production volume are also shown, reflecting the supply situation of the PVC industry [59][63][68] 3.6. Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC (film, profile, and pipe) are stable. Currently in the export off - season, but there is a short - term export rush due to the upcoming cancellation of export tax rebates. Figures on PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area are presented, which comprehensively reflect the downstream demand situation of PVC [11][73][81]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to fluctuate within a range as the improvement in the supply - demand pattern is limited, downstream order cycles are shortened, and downstream product profits are shrinking. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new plastic production capacity and the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch films [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 23, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry of the main drawstring decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 42.04% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [1][4] - Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the recent inventory reduction was average. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, the US Energy Secretary called for more than doubling global oil production, US crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and gasoline inventories also continued to increase more than expected. Overall oil product inventories continued to rise, and crude oil prices fell [1] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of recent maintenance devices decreased slightly. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but as the Spring Festival holiday approached, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry continued to decline, and new orders were limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,584 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,687 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,656 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.48%. The position increased by 12,150 lots to 498,932 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions rose. The drawstring was reported at 6,250 - 6,730 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [4] - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry of the main drawstring decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 42.04% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: Petrochemical morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 500,000 tons week - on - week, 35,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the recent inventory reduction was average. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $15/ton to $800/ton week - on - week [4]

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing fluctuations due to various factors including changes in export tax policies, demand weakness, and production capacity dynamics, leading to a complex outlook for 2026. Group 1: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, the Chinese manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index rose to expansion territory, boosting macroeconomic sentiment and leading to a rebound in PVC futures prices to 5000 yuan/ton [1] - In 2025, the actual PVC production capacity increased by 2.08 million tons to a historical high of 29.62 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.55% [2] - The global PVC capacity expansion is slowing down, with only a few new projects expected in 2026, which may alleviate the pressure of overcapacity [2] Group 2: Demand and Inventory - The real estate sector remains in a slow recovery phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment and construction metrics, leading to weak demand for PVC [3] - As of mid-January, PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% week-on-week to 1.1441 million tons, indicating high inventory levels and significant destocking pressure [3] Group 3: Export Dynamics - In 2025, PVC exports reached 3.8232 million tons, a 46.09% year-on-year increase, with India being the largest export destination [4] - The cancellation of the export tax rebate for PVC, effective April 1, 2026, will increase export costs by approximately 520 yuan/ton, potentially reducing price competitiveness in Asian markets [4] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The overall profitability of PVC and caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure, with recent declines in caustic soda prices and increasing cost support for PVC [5] - The market fundamentals are weak, with seasonal demand decreasing before the Spring Festival and social inventory continuing to rise [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE is rated neutral, and PP is rated neutral [5] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals provide limited support, and in the short term, it follows the fluctuations of the cost side. The market has returned to fundamental trading, and it may be weak and volatile in the short term [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,640 yuan/ton (-27), and that of the PP main contract is 6,461 yuan/ton (-21). The spot price of LL in North China is 6,540 yuan/ton (-120), and in East China is 6,700 yuan/ton (-30). The spot price of PP in East China is 6,410 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is -100 yuan/ton (-93), in East China is 60 yuan/ton (-3), and that of PP in East China is -51 yuan/ton (+21) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 81.6% (-2.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 186.2 yuan/ton (-103.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -373.8 yuan/ton (-103.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -628.5 yuan/ton (-46.1) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 122.9 yuan/ton (-117.3), the PP import profit is -406.7 yuan/ton (-153.0), and the PP export profit is -57.9 US dollars/ton (+3.5) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (-1.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (-0.8%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [2] Market Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and international oil prices have entered a volatile phase after falling from high levels. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the market trades on the weak PE fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase steadily as there are few short - term planned maintenance of existing devices, some previously shut - down devices plan to resume production, and some full - density devices return to producing standard products. The demand shows off - season characteristics, with the overall downstream operating rate declining, and downstream factories may be less willing to replenish inventory at high prices. The inventory has been transferred from producers to middle - stream traders, but there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply [3] - **PP**: After the macro - sentiment is digested and due to the weak demand in the off - season, the market has corrected from high levels. The supply side has few new short - term maintenance, but the PDH is in deep loss, and some devices have maintenance expectations. The demand was boosted during the previous price increase as downstream enterprises replenished inventory, but now the downstream is in the off - season, and the resistance to high prices has increased, with limited new orders. The inventory of the upstream and middle - stream has decreased, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of oil - based production has decreased, while the PDH - based cost still provides support [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: LLDPE and PP are both rated neutral. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term [5] - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5] - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - PP production remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6461, with a daily decline of 0.32%. The trading volume was 358,242, and the open interest decreased by 4,253. The 05 contract basis was -131, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was -31 [1] - **Spot Price**: The prices of Beihua, Donghua, and South China remained stable at 6300 yuan/ton, 6330 yuan/ton, and 6450 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price declined, the upstream pre - sale pressure was not large, and traders mainly focused on overall sales. The basis was stable, and the trading atmosphere weakened significantly in the second half of last week. The year - end demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, and the sustainability of buying is questionable. The number of warehouse receipts remains high. The PP US dollar market price is stable, and the trading is difficult to improve [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost End**: Crude oil and propane prices are strong, and the internal valuation of olefins is differentiated. The valuation of PE in terms of internal and external and upstream profit is higher than that of PP [2] - **Supply End**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game of existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - **Demand End**: The follow - up of new orders from downstream industries has weakened, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is - 1 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish. In the short - term, PVC has no obvious driving factors and is expected to fluctuate mainly. In the long - term, with less global PVC production and capacity gradually exiting, it is bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro sentiment has subsided, and the futures price has declined. The PVC market is affected by supply, demand, inventory, cost, and other factors. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, there is an upward trend [3][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, the oversupply pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. The overall capacity utilization rate is 79.63%, a decrease of 0.04% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year. The maintenance loss this week is 3.585 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons from the previous period [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Downstream demand is in the off - season, with a decline in downstream start - up rates. The export volume in November 2025 was 27.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.78% and a year - on - year increase of 29.64% [3]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The social inventory increased by 2.70% month - on - month to 114.41 tons, and the production enterprise's factory inventory days decreased by 3.70% month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: Neutral. The basis has strengthened, currently at - 183 yuan/ton [3]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The profits of the two PVC production processes are different. The average profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 29 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the average profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 54 yuan/ton month - on - month [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The price is at a historical low, and the valuation is low [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. The macro sentiment has temporarily receded [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy on dips; no arbitrage strategy [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Price Trend**: The PVC powder market fluctuated strongly in the middle of the week and declined at the weekend. The futures price decreased. The supply pressure increased, and the demand continued to decline. There may be a rush to export due to tariff policy changes [6]. - **Price Spread**: The price spread has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9]. 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production in Main Production Areas**: After the maintenance ended, the production in the northwest was high [35]. - **Domestic Inventory**: Factory inventory increased, and social inventory decreased [43]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand is in the off - season, with a decline in the start - up rates of various downstream industries [64]. - **Export**: It is the seasonal off - season, and exports have slowed down. There may be a rush to export due to the cancellation of export subsidies in April. India's policies have made the export order - receiving situation good, and there is still great potential for export growth in the future [77][79][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Plastics and PP showed a pattern of rising and then falling this week. Plastics had a weekly gain for four consecutive weeks, while PP's weekly line turned negative. The market is currently facing a risk of correction in the short - term due to factors such as significant increases in warehouse receipts and the seasonal off - peak demand [3][8][14]. - For plastics, although the cost support has improved and the spot trading has picked up, and the upstream and mid - stream inventories have significantly decreased, the downstream is in the seasonal off - peak season, and the replenishment may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the changes in geopolitical conflicts, and if the market sentiment weakens, the market may return to the previous downward trend [4]. - For PP, although the cost of propylene has been relatively strong recently, the proportion of externally purchased propylene production capacity is only about 4%, and the cost support is not significant. The weighted gross profit is at a neutral level compared to the same period. The market is affected by factors such as low - level operation of production, seasonal off - peak demand, and significant increases in warehouse receipts on January 13th, and there is an opportunity to short the market [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Plastics**: Opened slightly lower at 6662 on Monday, dropped to the weekly low of 6607, then continued the upward trend of last week, reached the highest of 6888 on Thursday, and finally closed at 6695 yuan/ton on Friday, with an amplitude of 281 points in the whole week [3][14]. - **PP**: Opened slightly lower at 6662 on Monday, dropped to the weekly low of 6431, then continued the upward trend of last week, reached the highest of 6664 on Thursday, and finally closed at 6496 yuan/ton on Friday, with an amplitude of 233 points in the whole week [8][14]. - **Funds**: As of this Friday, the main positions of PE were 490,000 lots, showing a slight decrease, and the market rebounded with a reduction in positions [16]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Friday, the number of L and PP warehouse receipts was 10,627 and 17,508 lots respectively [27]. - **Spreads**: As of this Friday, the main spread of plastics was 65 yuan/ton, which was slightly higher than the neutral level in the same period; the main spread of PP was - 27 yuan/ton, which was at a low level in the same period. The L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 38 yuan/ton. The LP05 spread was 199 yuan/ton [21][24][30]. - **Valuation**: As of this Wednesday, the weighted gross profit of LLDPE was - 215 yuan/ton, with a significant recovery in the gross profit of MTO and ethylene; the weighted gross profit of PP was - 748 yuan/ton, and the PDH gross profit was still at a low level in the same period [32]. 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply** - **Plastics**: This week, the PE production was 670,000 tons, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a capacity utilization rate of 82%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 9.8%. The supply pressure was mainly concentrated in HD, and the cumulative production of LD was significantly lower than that of last year. Some plants are planned to restart in the next period, and the production is expected to increase. According to the balance sheet forecast, the year - on - year production at the end of January is expected to be 9.1% [43]. - **PP**: This week, the PP production was 780,000 tons, showing a decline for four consecutive weeks, with a capacity utilization rate of 76%, and the cumulative year - on - year production increase was 6.3%. The production is expected to increase slightly next week, as the profit of externally purchased propylene has improved and the enterprise's enthusiasm for starting production has increased. According to the balance sheet forecast, the cumulative year - on - year production at the end of January is expected to be 13.9%, and the cumulative year - on - year production from January to April is expected to be 9.6%. There are no production expansion plans in the first half of the year, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually ease [46]. - **Import and Export** - **PE**: From January to November 2025, the average monthly export volume was 90,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 31%), and the average monthly import volume was 1.1 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%). In November 2025, the import volume was 1.06 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%). By variety, the cumulative year - on - year changes of LL, LD, and HE were - 9.8%, 9.1%, and - 5.4% respectively [49][52]. - **PP**: From January to November 2025, the average monthly import volume was 280,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 9%), and the average monthly export volume was 260,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 28%). In November 2025, the PP import volume was 230 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%), and the export volume was 260,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 38%) [55][58]. - **Downstream Demand** - **PE**: This week, the downstream capacity utilization rate of PE was 41%, showing a seasonal decline. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the apparent consumption of PE was 11%. The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to November 2025 was 45.6 trillion yuan (a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0%), with a continuous decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate for five months. The downstream agricultural film operating rate has declined for eight consecutive weeks, and the operating rate of PE packaging film has significantly declined [60][62]. - **PP**: This week, the downstream operating rate of PP has declined for five consecutive weeks, among which the BOPP operating rate has increased and the PP non - woven fabric has weakened. From January to November 2025, the year - on - year increase in the apparent consumption of PP was 16.9%. In November 2025, the apparent consumption of PP was 3.51 million tons. This week, the plastic braiding operating rate has declined for six consecutive weeks, and the BOPP operating rate remains at a high level [64][67]. - **Plastic Products Export**: From January to November 2025, the average monthly export value of plastics and products was 11.6 billion US dollars (a year - on - year increase of 0.5%), and the proportion of the export value to the United States was 14%. In November 2025, the cumulative export value of plastics and products was 12 billion US dollars (a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month increase of 13%), and the proportion of the export value to the United States was 13% [69]. - **Inventory**: This week, the commercial inventory of PE was 860,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.12 million tons), and the commercial inventory of PP was 700,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons). As of this Thursday, the petrochemical inventory of polyolefins was 530,000 tons. This week, the enterprise inventory of PE was 350,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25,000 tons), and the enterprise inventory of PP was 430,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons). This week, the social inventory of PE was 480,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0 and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons), and the trader inventory of PP was 190,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons) [72][74][77][79]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheets of PE and PP from 2014 to 2026, the monthly supply - demand balance sheets of PE and PP in 2026, and the balance sheet forecasts of PE and PP contracts such as PE05, PE09, PE01, PP05, PP09, and PP01 [80][81][82][83]. 3. Strategies - **Plastics**: For single - sided trading, take a slightly bearish view with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 6,550 - 6,800 yuan/ton for L2605. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. For hedging, take a wait - and - see approach [5][7]. - **PP**: For single - sided trading, take a slightly bearish view with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 6,350 - 6,600 yuan/ton for PP2605. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. For hedging, as the market maintains a contango structure, industrial customers can sell short at high prices when the opportunity arises [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic PVC market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals. Although short - term electricity price expectations and the rush to export may support PVC prices, in the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies should be adopted before substantial industry production cuts [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2,400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has declined to a low level again, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased, with the current valuation being moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.6%, unchanged from the previous week. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 80%, up 0.3% from the previous week; the ethylene method is 78.8%, down 0.8% from the previous week. The supply - side load was flat last week, with the loads of Fujian Wanhua, Yibin Tianyuan, and Salt Lake Magnesium Industry decreasing. The load is expected to decline next week. The overall load in January is still expected to be high, with a small reduction in production and high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: It is currently the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, leading to a short - term rush to export. The operating rates of the three major downstream sectors remained stable. The pipe load is 35.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the film load is 66.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the profile load is 29.9%, down 0.3% from the previous week. The overall downstream load is 43.9%, down 0.1% from the previous week, and the overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 92.6 million tons, up 1.7 million tons from the previous week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 31.1 million tons, with a destocking of 1.7 million tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 114.4 million tons, with a stockpiling of 3 million tons from the previous week; the overall inventory was 145.5 million tons, with a stockpiling of 1.3 million tons from the previous week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Currently, inventory is turning to stockpiling. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, domestic demand has entered the off - season. Short - term exports may surge due to the rush to export, but there is significant medium - term export pressure, making it difficult to digest the high production volume [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The content mainly includes multiple charts such as PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, showing the historical trends of these data from 2022 to 2026 [15][19][24][26] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - The content presents various charts related to inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventories, and warehouse receipts, as well as charts related to profit, such as the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][39][41] 3.4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: Calcium carbide prices in Wuhai and Shandong are presented in the chart, along with the inventory and operating rate of calcium carbide, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The calcium carbide price is currently stable [47][48] - **Other Raw Materials**: The chart shows the price trends of Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price [55] 3.5. Supply Side - **Capacity**: The historical trend of PVC capacity and the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025 are presented, including information on specific production facilities, production processes, production capacities, and commissioning times, with a total capacity of 2.5 million tons/year in 2025 [59][63] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly PVC production volume, are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [68][69] 3.6. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of PVC downstream sectors such as pipes, films, and profiles are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season, with the pipe load at 35.4%, the film load at 66.4%, the profile load at 29.9%, and the overall downstream load at 43.9% [74][75] - **Export Demand**: The export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, and the pre - sales volume are presented, showing their historical trends. Currently, it is the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy cancellation on April 1st will lead to a short - term rush to export [77][82] - **Related Indicators**: The chart shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, which is related to PVC demand [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PE prices continue to rise due to factors such as increased cost support from rising oil prices, improved sentiment, and a slight improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals. However, the demand support is limited, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro guidance and the inventory reduction process [2]. - PP prices also rebound due to improved market sentiment, expected supply reduction, and cost support. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, but the demand is still in the off - season. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction pressure [3]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. The market is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to upstream maintenance dynamics [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6820 yuan/ton (+54), and the PP main contract is 6590 yuan/ton (+45). LL spot prices in North and East China are 6750 yuan/ton (+80) and 6880 yuan/ton (+130) respectively, and PP spot price in East China is 6420 yuan/ton (+170). LL basis in North China is - 70 yuan/ton (+26), LL basis in East China is 60 yuan/ton (+76), and PP basis in East China is - 170 yuan/ton (+125) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP operating rate is 75.5% (-1.3%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 84.0 yuan/ton (-20.8), PP oil - based production profit is - 656.0 yuan/ton (-20.8), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 815.3 yuan/ton (-93.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is 258.8 yuan/ton (+98.6), PP import profit is - 409.1 yuan/ton (-43.4), and PP export profit is - 36.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.0% (+0.6%), PP downstream woven operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.2% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Cost support increases with rising oil prices, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve slightly. Supply decreases due to more short - term maintenance of existing devices, and the production of standard products increases. Demand improves as downstream factories increase restocking, but the demand is still in the off - season. Inventory is transferred from upstream to middle - stream, but there is still pressure to reduce inventory [2]. - **PP**: The price rebounds due to improved sentiment, expected supply reduction, and cost support. Supply pressure eases in the short - term due to more temporary maintenance, and there are strong expectations for future PDH device maintenance. Demand improves as downstream restocking increases, but it is still in the off - season. Inventory is transferred from upstream to middle - stream, and the overall inventory level is still high [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. The market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to upstream maintenance dynamics [4]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [4].