编者按 今年上半年，A股共有5424家上市公司披露半年报。其中，石化行业588家上市公司合计实现营 业收入5.1077万亿元，同比下降4.93%；实现归母净利润0.27万亿元，同比下降10.28%，营收与利润呈 现"双降"态势。其中，油气板块和基础化工板块表现如何?它们交出了一份怎样的中期"答卷"?《石化化 工行业板块业绩分析》系列报道将分上下两篇，为广大读者进行解读。 今年上半年，国际油价环比回落。一季度WTI原油主力期货合约均价为71.5美元/桶，二季度降至68.5美 元/桶；同期布伦特原油均价从75美元/桶回落至71.5美元/桶。受此影响，涵盖油气开采、炼化、油服三 大子板块的油气板块整体业绩承压，但细分领域表现分化，油服板块凭借长期需求支撑实现稳步增长。 上半年，三大子板块合计实现营业收入37548.48亿元，同比下降7.93%；实现归母净利润1918.91亿元， 同比下降13.98%。利润降幅大于营收，反映出油价下行对行业盈利能力的直接冲击。 中国石化积极布局氢能、太阳能、风能、地热等业务，加快推动多能互补、融合发展，形成油、气、新 能源"三足鼎立"之势。目前，该公司已建成氢燃料电池供氢中心11个、 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The domestic key refining projects' price spread this week is 2516 CNY/ton, down by 19 CNY/ton (1% decrease) compared to the previous week, while the foreign key refining projects' price spread is 1181 CNY/ton, down by 12 CNY/ton (1% decrease) [2]. - In the polyester sector, the average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6704, 6936, and 7982 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -86, -143, and -39 CNY/ton. The weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 79, -33, and 64 CNY/ton respectively [2]. - The operating rate for polyester filament is 91.5%, which is a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [2]. - The downstream weaving machine operating rate is 62.2%, down by 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [2]. - The average price of PX this week is 831.9 USD/ton, down by 3.7 USD/ton, with a price spread compared to crude oil of 338.7 USD/ton, down by 11.6 USD/ton [2]. - The report highlights several listed companies in the refining and polyester sectors, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices for gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene have increased this week [2]. - The average price of Brent crude oil is 67.6 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [9]. 2. Polyester Sector - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6704, 6936, and 7982 CNY/ton respectively, with corresponding week-on-week changes [9]. - The inventory days for POY, FDY, and DTY are 20.6, 28.8, and 31.5 days respectively, with slight increases week-on-week [9]. - The operating rates for PX, PTA, and MEG are 85.3%, 75.5%, and 70.9% respectively [9]. 3. Chemical Sector - The report provides insights into the average prices and profit margins for various chemical products, including PX and PTA [9]. - The average price of PX is 831.9 USD/ton, with a decrease in the price spread compared to crude oil [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [146] Core Viewpoints - The EVA supply remains tight, leading to continued price and margin increases [2] - Brent crude oil average price for the week ending September 19, 2025, was $67.55 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.62% [2][3] - Domestic and international refined oil prices have seen slight increases, with domestic refined oil price margins narrowing and overseas margins widening [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Domestic key refining project price margin was 2380.87 CNY/ton, a decrease of 15.72 CNY/ton (-0.66%) week-on-week, while the international margin was 1176.66 CNY/ton, down 16.22 CNY/ton (-1.36%) [2][3] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices on September 19, 2025, were $66.68 and $62.68 per barrel, respectively, showing slight declines from the previous week [16] - Domestic diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene average prices were 6936.14 CNY/ton, 8019.29 CNY/ton, and 5976.50 CNY/ton, respectively, with corresponding price margins against crude oil [16] Chemical Sector - EVA prices continued to rise, with an average price of 11842.86 CNY/ton, and the EVA-crude oil price margin increased to 8338.71 CNY/ton [56] - Polypropylene prices showed a downward trend due to weak demand, with average prices for various types of polypropylene reported [72] - MMA prices increased significantly due to supply-side factors and pre-holiday stocking demand, with an average price of 9882.14 CNY/ton [72] Polyester & Nylon Sector - PX prices showed a slight decline, with the current average price at 5926.85 CNY/ton, and the PX-crude oil price margin at 2423.52 CNY/ton [87] - PTA prices decreased, with the average price at 4592.86 CNY/ton and the industry average profit margin remaining negative [96] - The average price for polyester filament yarns decreased due to weak demand, with average prices reported for different types of yarns [104]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the refining and petrochemical industry, specifically discussing the performance and trends of various products and companies within this sector [1][2][3][11][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Trends**: - In the first half of 2025, the refining sector experienced a mixed demand trend. Gasoline demand decreased by 5% year-on-year, while diesel demand fell by 7%. However, aviation kerosene saw a positive growth of approximately 5% [2][11]. - The demand growth for aromatics slowed, with PX and PTA increasing by 2% and 6%, respectively. The olefins chain maintained high growth rates, with ethylene, propylene, and butadiene increasing by 9%, 13%, and 22% respectively [2][11]. - **Price Performance**: - Overall, the prices of refining products in 2025 showed a downward trend, with most products experiencing month-on-month declines. Notable exceptions included by-products like sulfur, petroleum coke, and butanone, with butanone seeing a 21% increase in July [3][11]. - The price spread for PX improved gradually, while PTA faced challenges due to new capacity and weakened demand, leading to a decrease in processing fees [11][18]. - **Operational Rates**: - The operating rate of Shandong independent refineries declined from 70% in 2020 to around 50% in 2024, but has recently recovered to approximately 70% [5][11]. - The operating rates for the aromatics chain remained above 80%, while the olefins chain faced lower rates due to large-scale new production [6][11]. - **Inventory Levels**: - There was a clear divergence in inventory levels, with upstream raw material inventories remaining high, while downstream finished oil inventories were low. The olefins chain faced significant inventory pressure, whereas the aromatics chain appeared healthier [7][8][9]. - **Export Dynamics**: - The export price index for end products showed a declining trend from 2023, with an average annual decrease of 5%-7%. The textile and apparel sector experienced a cumulative decline of 14%-15% [10][11]. - Despite weak export growth in value, actual export volumes increased significantly, indicating a shift from import substitution to direct exports for domestic chemical products [10][11]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Changes**: - Recent policies have tightened approvals for new projects and optimized existing capacities, which may impact the future development pace of the petrochemical industry [19][20]. - **Future Capacity Growth**: - The period from 2019 to 2025 marked a peak in domestic petrochemical product investments, but growth rates are expected to slow down significantly post-2026 [20][21]. - **Sectoral Outlook**: - The industry is currently at a cyclical bottom, with gradual improvements in product prices and spreads. Key companies to watch include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Sinopec, which are positioned well for future growth [22].

Group 1 - The price spread for domestic key refining projects this week is 2579 CNY/ton, an increase of 97 CNY/ton (up 4% week-on-week) [1][2] - The price spread for foreign key refining projects this week is 1197 CNY/ton, an increase of 63 CNY/ton (up 6% week-on-week) [1][2] - The average price of PX this week is 835.6 USD/ton, a decrease of 7.0 USD/ton week-on-week, with a price spread compared to crude oil of 350.3 USD/ton, an increase of 1.7 USD/ton [3] Group 2 - In the polyester sector, the average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6789, 7079, and 8021 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -82, -68, and -29 CNY/ton [2] - The weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 108, 34, and 63 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -5, +5, and +31 CNY/ton [2] - The inventory days for POY, FDY, and DTY are 19.3, 27.6, and 31.1 days respectively, with week-on-week changes of +1.9, +1.2, and +1.4 days [2] Group 3 - The operating rate for PX is 85.9%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points week-on-week [3] - The operating rate for long filaments is 91.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The weaving machine operating rate is 62.4%, unchanged week-on-week [2] Group 4 - Key listed companies in the private refining and polyester filament sector include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the fluctuations in oil prices and refining margins, indicating a mixed outlook for the refining and chemical sectors due to various geopolitical and market factors [1][2]. Refining Sector - As of the week ending September 12, 2025, the domestic refining margin for key projects was 2407.08 CNY/ton, an increase of 45.76 CNY/ton (+1.94%) from the previous week, while the international refining margin was 1198.96 CNY/ton, up by 65.38 CNY/ton (+5.77%) [2]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week was 66.47 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.77% [2]. - OPEC+ has slowed its production increase, with several countries implementing compensatory production cuts, which, along with potential U.S. sanctions on Russia and ongoing geopolitical tensions, have supported a slight upward trend in international oil prices [2]. Chemical Sector - The petrochemical sector showed mixed price trends, with some olefin products experiencing strong demand and price increases, while polyethylene prices remained stable with slight declines [3]. - EVA prices continued to rise due to strong photovoltaic demand, while pure benzene prices saw a minor decrease [3]. - The polyester industry faced downward pressure on prices due to increased supply from a PX facility restart, with overall orders remaining low [3]. Stock Performance of Refining Companies - As of September 12, 2025, stock performance for six major private refining companies showed varied results, with New Fengming leading with a 7.09% increase over the week and 27.04% over the month [4]. - Other companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Dongfang Shenghong also showed positive monthly performance, indicating a generally favorable market sentiment despite some weekly declines [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly analysis of the large refining and chemical industry, highlighting that the cost - end support is weak, and filament prices are under pressure. It provides detailed data on various segments such as refining, polyester, and chemicals, as well as the performance of related listed companies [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **6 Major Private Refining Companies' Performance** - **Stock Price Changes**: As of September 12, 2025, the stock prices of private refining companies showed different trends. For example, New Fengming had a weekly increase of 7.1%, while Hengli Petrochemical had a weekly decrease of 1.4% [9]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The report provides the net profit forecasts of these companies from 2024 to 2027. For instance, the expected net profit of Rongsheng Petrochemical in 2025 is 2.616 billion yuan [9]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads** - **International Crude Oil**: The average price of Brent crude oil this week was 66.5 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.2 dollars/barrel (-1.8%) compared to last week, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6%. The average price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.5 dollars/barrel (-2.4%) compared to last week, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [9]. - **Refining Spreads**: The spread of domestic key large refining projects this week was 2,579.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 96.5 yuan/ton (+3.9%); the spread of foreign key large refining projects was 1,197.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 62.6 yuan/ton (+5.5%) [9]. - **Polyester Sector** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of POY, FDY, and DTY this week were 6,789.3 yuan/ton, 7,078.6 yuan/ton, and 8,021.4 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 82.1 yuan/ton, 67.9 yuan/ton, and 28.6 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits of POY, FDY, and DTY were 107.8 yuan/ton, 34.3 yuan/ton, and 62.8 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 4.5 yuan/ton, +5.0 yuan/ton, and +31.0 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of POY, FDY, and DTY were 19.3 days, 27.6 days, and 31.1 days respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.9 days, 1.2 days, and 1.4 days. The operating rate of filament was 91.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 pct [10]. - **Refining Sector** - **Domestic Refined Oil**: This week, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel decreased [3]. - **US Refined Oil**: This week, the prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel decreased [3]. - **Chemical Sector** - **PX**: The average price of PX this week was 835.6 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.0 dollars/ton. The spread between PX and crude oil was 350.3 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.7 dollars/ton. The operating rate of PX was 85.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2 pct [3]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends** - **Market Performance of Six Private Big Refining Companies**: The report presents the market performance trends of six private big refining companies from 2020 to 2025, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, etc. [16][17] - **Refining Spreads and Oil Prices**: It shows the historical trends of domestic and foreign big refining project spreads and Brent oil prices from 2020 to 2025 [20][22] - **Polyester Sector** - **Raw Material and Product Prices**: It presents the price trends of crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., as well as the price and profit trends of various polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [24][26][38] - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: It shows the operating rate trends of PX, PTA, MEG, filament, and polyester staple fiber from 2020 to 2025, as well as the inventory trends of PTA, filament, and polyester staple fiber [33][56][76] - **Sales and Production Rates**: It presents the sales and production rate trends of filament and polyester staple fiber in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region from 2020 to 2025 [49][72] - **Refining Sector** - **Domestic Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [85][94] - **US Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [99][107] - **European Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of European gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [112][121] - **Singapore Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [126][134] - **Chemical Sector** - **Chemical Product Prices**: It shows the price trends of various chemical products such as polyethylene LLDPE, homopolymerized polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, MMA, etc., and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [140][148]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [129]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong demand in the photovoltaic sector, leading to a continuous increase in EVA prices and price spreads [2]. - Domestic and international refining project price spreads have shown significant changes, with domestic spreads at 2407.08 CNY/ton (+1.94%) and international spreads at 1198.96 CNY/ton (+5.77%) as of September 12, 2025 [2][3]. - Brent crude oil prices have experienced fluctuations, with a weekly average of 66.47 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.77% [2][3]. Refining Sector Summary - OPEC+ has slowed its production increase, and several countries are implementing compensatory production cuts, contributing to a rise in international oil prices [2]. - As of September 12, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were 66.99 USD/barrel and 62.69 USD/barrel, respectively, marking increases of 1.49 USD and 0.82 USD from the previous week [2][14]. - Domestic refined oil prices have shown slight increases, with price spreads in Southeast Asia rising slightly while Europe and the US saw declines [2]. Chemical Sector Summary - The chemical products sector has shown mixed price trends, with some olefin products experiencing strong demand and price spreads widening [2]. - EVA prices have continued to rise due to strong photovoltaic demand, with an average price of 11592.86 CNY/ton and a price spread of 8146.18 CNY/ton [45]. - Polypropylene prices have weakened due to slow demand, with average prices for various types of polypropylene showing declines [56]. Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - The polyester industry is facing downward pressure on prices, with PX prices at 5931.36 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 51.52 CNY/ton [69]. - The demand for polyester filament remains weak, with average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY showing slight declines [89]. - Nylon fiber prices have remained stable, with slight improvements in price spreads [99]. Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of September 12, 2025, the stock price changes for six major refining companies were as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (0.00%), Hengli Petrochemical (-1.40%), Dongfang Shenghong (+3.93%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+4.40%), Tongkun Co. (0.00%), and Xin Fengming (+7.09%) [116]. - Over the past month, stock price changes were: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+4.45%), Hengli Petrochemical (+11.07%), Dongfang Shenghong (+12.56%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+10.67%), Tongkun Co. (+18.90%), and Xin Fengming (+27.04%) [116].

Core Viewpoint - The leading private refining companies in China, including Hengli Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to industry cyclicality, narrowing product price spreads, and intense competition [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - All four companies reported a decline in operating income, with a combined net profit of approximately 4.27 billion yuan, down nearly 40% year-on-year [2]. - Hengli Petrochemical led with a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, a decrease of over 24% year-on-year [2]. - Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Hengyi Petrochemical reported net profits of 602 million yuan, 386 million yuan, and 227 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -29.82%, +21.24%, and -47.32% [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The industry is experiencing a "involution" competition, leading to increased production and sales without corresponding profit increases, resulting in declining profit margins since 2021 [3]. - Major products from the four companies saw over half of their revenues decline in the first half of the year, with Rongsheng Petrochemical's revenue from refining and PTA products decreasing by 12.4% and 39.6%, respectively [3]. - Hengyi Petrochemical and Dongfang Shenghong also experienced around 20% year-on-year declines in refining product revenues [3]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Dongfang Shenghong benefited from the rapid development of the global photovoltaic industry, achieving profit growth through its focus on new energy materials, particularly photovoltaic-grade EVA products [4]. - Companies are adjusting their product structures to cope with market competition, with Rongsheng Petrochemical's "reduce oil and increase chemicals" strategy leading to a 5.46% increase in chemical product revenue [5]. - Hengyi Petrochemical is optimizing its polyester product structure, increasing the proportion of differentiated fibers to 27% and accelerating the development of high-end biodegradable fibers [5]. Group 4: International Market Impact - Companies with significant overseas business exposure faced substantial revenue declines, with Hengyi Petrochemical's overseas revenue dropping nearly 15% to 24.38 billion yuan [5]. - Rongsheng Petrochemical's overseas revenue fell over 33% to 14.97 billion yuan, nearly ten times the decline in domestic revenue [5]. - Hengli Petrochemical highlighted challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, which significantly compressed profit margins and disrupted global textile supply chains [5]. Group 5: Cost Management - Companies indicated that fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly crude oil, pose risks to operations, despite some cost relief in the first half of the year [6]. - Companies are focusing on refined cost control and dynamic analysis to manage procurement strategies effectively and mitigate the impact of raw material price volatility [6].

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is facing significant challenges, with major private refining companies reporting declines in both revenue and net profit due to market saturation and intense competition, leading to a "production increase without profit increase" scenario [4][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Four major private refining companies, Hengli Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, reported a combined net profit of approximately 4.27 billion yuan, a nearly 40% decline year-on-year [3]. - Hengli Petrochemical led with a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, down over 24% year-on-year, while Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Hengyi Petrochemical reported net profits of 602 million yuan, 386 million yuan, and 227 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -29.82%, +21.24%, and -47.32% [3][5]. - Dongfang Shenghong was the only company among the four to achieve net profit growth, benefiting from its investments in the renewable energy materials sector, particularly in photovoltaic-grade EVA products [5]. Group 2: Market Environment - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, characterized by narrowing product price differentials and ineffective cost transmission, compounded by fierce internal competition [3][4]. - The industry has seen a cumulative increase of over 50% in production capacity and output for various petrochemical products over the past five years, leading to oversupply in the market [4]. Group 3: Revenue Trends - Over half of the main products from the four major private refining companies saw revenue declines in the first half of the year, with Rongsheng Petrochemical's revenue from refining and PTA products decreasing by 12.4% and 39.6%, respectively [5]. - Hengyi Petrochemical and Dongfang Shenghong also experienced approximately 20% declines in revenue from refining products, while Hengyi's chemical, PTA, and polyester products saw revenue reductions of 15.2%, 21.3%, and 4.24% [5]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Companies are focusing on product structure adjustments to cope with market challenges, with Rongsheng Petrochemical's "reduce oil and increase chemicals" strategy yielding a 5.46% increase in chemical product revenue [6]. - Hengyi Petrochemical is optimizing its polyester product structure, increasing the proportion of differentiated fibers to 27%, and accelerating the development of high-end biodegradable fibers [6]. Group 5: International Business Impact - Companies with significant overseas business exposure, such as Hengyi Petrochemical, reported substantial revenue impacts, with overseas revenue declining nearly 15% to 24.38 billion yuan, exceeding the domestic revenue decline of 12.6% [6]. - The U.S. tariff policies have posed severe challenges for export-oriented companies, compressing profit margins and affecting global supply chain stability [6].