2025 年 6 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 数据来源：Wind, Bloomberg 行业研究 【基化】化工企业近期事故频发，建议关注尼龙及特种尼龙产业链——石化化工交运 行业日报第 76 期（20250611）(增持) 投资建议：（1）持续看好低估值、高股息、业绩好的"三桶油"及油服板块。建议 关注：中国石油、中国石化、中国海油、中海油服、海油工程、海油发展；（2）持 续看好国产替代趋势下的材料企业，国产半导体材料、面板材料有望受益，建议关注： 晶瑞电材、彤程新材、奥来德；（3）看好农药化肥及民营大炼化板块，建议关注： 万华化学、华鲁恒升、华锦股份；（4）看好维生素及蛋氨酸板块，建议关注：安迪 苏、浙江医药、新和成。 风险分析：原材料快速下跌和维持高位、下游需求不及预 期风险。 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3402.32 | 0.52 | | 沪深 300 | 3894.63 | 0.75 | | 深证成指 | 10246.02 | 0.83 | | 中小板指 | 6414.1 | 0.87 | | ...

Core Insights - The release of the "Industrial Internet and Petrochemical Industry Integration Application Reference Guide (2025)" provides a clear roadmap for the digital transformation of the petrochemical industry, emphasizing the shift from traditional manufacturing to intelligent driving through industrial internet [1][2] Group 1: Industry Challenges and Needs - The petrochemical industry has made progress in digital transformation, with an industrial cloud platform application rate of 56.5% and a key process numerical control rate of 80.6% in 2023 [2] - However, the industry still faces significant challenges, including communication protocol discrepancies among manufacturers, difficulties in retrofitting old equipment, and data silos that hinder data flow and utilization [2] - There is an urgent need for the integration of industrial internet applications to enhance production monitoring, supply chain security, resource allocation efficiency, and safety management [2] Group 2: Application Framework - The guide establishes a comprehensive application framework for the digital transformation of the petrochemical industry, featuring an "8+2" application model that covers 36 application areas and outlines 137 specific scenarios [3] - Intelligent production is highlighted as a core component of the model, encouraging the use of advanced control technologies and data analytics to ensure efficient and stable production processes [3] - The framework also emphasizes platform design, digital management, and collaborative networking to break down information barriers and enhance cooperation across the supply chain [3] Group 3: Safety and Sustainability - The guide specifically addresses "Industrial Internet + Safety Production" and "Industrial Internet + Green Low Carbon" applications, focusing on improving safety levels and promoting green development in the high-risk petrochemical sector [4] - The application of "5G + Industrial Internet" is concentrated on intelligent production, digital management, and real-time monitoring to support rapid data collection and precise control of production processes [4] Group 4: Implementation Support - To ensure the effective implementation of the "8+2" integration application model, the guide proposes a comprehensive deployment framework covering network infrastructure, platform construction, data systems, and security measures [5][6] - The guide suggests utilizing technologies like 5G and industrial PON to address equipment networking challenges and enhance data transmission capabilities [5] - A well-structured industrial internet platform and robust data and security systems are essential for the stable operation and value realization of industrial internet applications in the petrochemical industry [6]

【金工】TMT主题ETF资金显著流入，行业主题基金集体上涨——基金市场与ESG产品周报20250609 本周国内新基市场发行火热，合计发行310.13亿份。长期行业主题基金指数方面，各类行业主题基金集体上 涨，TMT主题基金表现强势、医药主题基金优势延续，分别上涨3.64%、2.24%。股票型ETF资金转为流出， 各类宽基ETF全面净流出，科创创业主题ETF资金净出规模相对较小，大盘宽基ETF资金净流出明显，信创 ETF等TMT主题ETF资金显著流入。 （祁嫣然）2025-06-09 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 COFs是一种新兴的结晶性多孔高分子材料，下游潜在的应用领域较为丰富。COFs的制备方法包括溶剂热 法合成、离子热合成、机械化学合成、微波 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a positive outlook for the consumption service industry, technology, and cyclical leaders, driven by macroeconomic expectations and microeconomic improvements. Key indicators show a slight recovery in manufacturing PMI and industrial output growth, suggesting potential for cost reductions in midstream manufacturing leaders and value in undervalued sectors like petrochemicals and new consumption [9][10][11] - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed financials, cyclicals, and consumer sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 1.1857 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity and risk appetite [12][20] - The report notes that 25 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification saw gains, with telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics leading the way, while household appliances and food and beverage sectors experienced declines [20][23] Group 2 - The report discusses the liquidity management strategy of the central bank, which is focused on maintaining stability by "shortening and lengthening" liquidity provisions. This includes net withdrawals through OMO and reverse repos, indicating a balanced approach to short and long-term liquidity [10][21][22] - It mentions that the yields on government bonds have slightly decreased due to ample liquidity, with 1-year and 10-year government bond yields at 1.41% and 1.65%, respectively, reflecting a stable interest rate environment [12][25] - The report also highlights the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, which are influenced by contrasting employment data, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.04% and 4.51%, respectively, indicating market sensitivity to economic indicators [28][29] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the performance of major commodities, noting that crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum prices have increased, driven by easing trade relations and OPEC+ production adjustments [12][13][32] - It highlights the significant rebound in crude oil prices, which reached $64.58 per barrel, and the increase in U.S. crude oil production to 13.41 million barrels per day, reflecting a robust energy sector [32][39] - The report also discusses the dynamics of the gold market, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, impacting gold prices amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [12][13][32]

Global Market Overview - Global stock markets rose overall, with Hong Kong and US stocks leading the gains[1] - Major commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum also saw price increases[1] - The US dollar index fell slightly, while the offshore RMB and euro appreciated, and the yen depreciated[1] Domestic Equity Market - As of June 6, the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 11,857 billion RMB, up from 10,699 billion RMB[2] - Among the 31 sectors tracked, 25 sectors rose, with telecommunications (+5.27%), non-ferrous metals (+3.74%), and electronics (+3.60%) leading the gains[2] - Conversely, household appliances (-1.79%), food and beverage (-1.06%), and transportation (-0.54%) saw declines[2] Interest Rates and Currency Exchange - The People's Bank of China adopted a "short-term collection and long-term release" liquidity management strategy, leading to a decrease in short-term liquidity demand[2] - The 1Y government bond yield fell by 4.5 basis points to 1.41%, while the 10Y yield decreased by 1.65 basis points to 1.6547%[1] - The offshore RMB appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar, closing at 7.1885[2] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, but rose by 0.5 percentage points in May[2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the profits of industrial enterprises increased by 3.0% year-on-year in April[2] - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 in April to 49.6 in May, indicating a contraction in manufacturing output globally[2] Commodity Trends - Crude oil prices rebounded significantly due to easing trade relations and OPEC+ moderate production increases[1] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 14.63% month-on-month to 62,300 units[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 15.2% week-on-week, indicating improved shipping demand[1]

Industry Overview and Transformation Needs - The petrochemical industry is a pillar of the national economy, characterized by a long industrial chain, complex processes, and high safety and environmental requirements. The industry faces challenges such as increasing resource and environmental constraints, high safety production pressure, and low efficiency of traditional production models. Digital transformation is key to improving total factor productivity. As of the end of 2023, the application rate of industrial cloud platforms in the petrochemical industry reached 56.5%, and the CNC rate of key processes was 80.6%, but issues like data silos and insufficient system collaboration remain. The industrial internet can optimize production processes, enhance safety control, and promote green and low-carbon initiatives, becoming the core driving force for industry transformation [1][2][3]. Integration Application Overall Architecture - The integration of the industrial internet and petrochemical industry is centered around "data + platform + model," forming a three-tier architecture: 1. Edge Layer: Collects data from production equipment and process parameters through sensors and smart instruments, achieving real-time connection between physical assets and virtual systems [2]. 2. Platform Layer: Builds an industrial internet platform that integrates data resources and develops industrial models for process optimization and predictive maintenance, forming general PaaS capabilities [3]. 3. Application Layer: Focuses on production, safety, and management scenarios, developing intelligent applications such as smart scheduling, supply chain collaboration, and environmental monitoring to achieve business loop optimization [4]. Core Application Scenarios - The guide proposes an "8+2" application model covering the entire design, production, and management chain: - Intelligent Production: Optimizes process parameters using advanced process control (APC) and digital twin technologies, enhancing production stability and efficiency [5]. - Safety Production: Establishes an "industrial internet + safety production" system, utilizing IoT and AI visual technologies to monitor hazards and manage emergency responses, reducing safety accident risks [5]. - Green and Low-Carbon: Uses energy management systems (EMS) and carbon emission monitoring to optimize energy allocation and promote applications like waste heat recovery and circular economy in chemical parks, supporting carbon neutrality goals [5]. - Supply Chain Collaboration: Integrates production, logistics, and sales data to achieve demand forecasting, inventory optimization, and cross-enterprise collaboration [5]. Implementation Path and Key Capability Building - Infrastructure Upgrade: - Promotes the deployment of 5G and industrial PON networks to achieve coordination between internal and external networks, addressing traditional network wiring complexity and high latency [6][7]. - Establishes an identification and resolution system to provide unique identification for equipment and products throughout their lifecycle, supporting data interoperability and supply chain traceability [7]. - Data System Construction: - Builds an industrial data lake to integrate multi-source heterogeneous data, enhancing data quality through governance to support data-driven decision-making in process optimization and energy consumption analysis [8]. - Security Assurance: - Constructs a security protection system covering equipment, networks, and data, strengthening industrial control security monitoring, data encryption, and access control to prevent cyberattacks and data breaches [9]. Typical Cases and Achievements - The guide includes several practical cases demonstrating the effectiveness of integration applications: - CNOOC's identification resolution secondary node: Achieved supply chain collaboration and product traceability, connecting 64 enterprises with over 370 million identification registrations, enhancing fertilizer anti-counterfeiting traceability efficiency, resulting in an annual economic benefit exceeding 4.7 million yuan [10]. - PetroChina's Longqing ethane-to-ethylene intelligent factory: Achieved a 100% stability rate in equipment operation and a 20% increase in labor productivity, saving 12,500 tons of standard coal annually [10]. - Maonan Petrochemical Industrial Park's safety risk prevention platform: Integrated environmental and safety data for real-time monitoring of pollutant emissions and emergency response, achieving a 97.34% hazard rectification rate, enhancing the park's inherent safety level [10]. Summary - The integration of the industrial internet and the petrochemical industry represents a resonance of technological innovation and industrial transformation. The industry is transitioning from "experience-driven" to "data-driven" through data-driven, intelligent decision-making, and ecological collaboration. Future efforts should focus on strengthening standard systems, cultivating cross-disciplinary talent, and empowering small and medium-sized enterprises to promote the scaling and intelligent evolution of integration applications, building a safe, efficient, and green modern petrochemical industry system [11].

Group 1 - The number of public REITs in China reached 66, with a total issuance scale of 174.39 billion yuan as of May 31, 2025 [4] - The weighted REITs index closed at 139.99 with a monthly return rate of 3.71%, outperforming A-shares, gold, pure bonds, and crude oil [4] - The return rates of major asset classes are ranked as follows: US stocks > convertible bonds > REITs > A-shares > gold > pure bonds > crude oil [4] Group 2 - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) policy in Europe is set to require a mandatory 2% addition, which is expected to drive price increases in related products [5] - Domestic channels for exporting bio-aviation fuel have been successfully established, indicating promising future development [5] Group 3 - The company Guming has expanded its presence to over 200 cities across 17 provinces in China, with a total of 9,914 stores, making it the largest mass-market fresh tea drink brand in the country [6] - Guming has achieved an average quarterly repurchase rate of 53% and a store operating profit margin of approximately 20%, both leading the industry [6] Group 4 - NIO reported a total revenue of 12.04 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38.9% [8] - The gross margin for NIO was 7.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.1 percentage points [8] - The Non-GAAP net loss for NIO expanded by 28.2% year-on-year to 6.28 billion yuan, although it narrowed by 4.2% quarter-on-quarter [8]

Core Viewpoint - The successful delivery of the Algeria MTBE project marks a significant milestone in Sino-Algerian cooperation in the petrochemical sector, showcasing KSB's advanced pump technology and project management capabilities [3][21]. Project Overview - The Algeria Sonatrach MTBE project, jointly constructed by CNTIC and LPEC, has entered a full implementation phase with the delivery of the first OH1 pump units [3]. - KSB, as the core equipment supplier, overcame challenges such as language barriers and strict certification requirements, injecting "Chinese manufacturing" momentum into the project [5]. Technical Breakthroughs - The project required international collaboration, with technical documentation needing to be prepared and delivered in both English and French, highlighting the high demands for cross-border cooperation efficiency [7]. - KSB achieved a 100% pass rate in meeting the stringent French ARH certification standards, which involved independent third-party audits at every stage from design to production [8]. Project Milestones - Key milestones include the initial quotation, establishment of the technical route, signing of equipment procurement contracts, delivery of the first products, and completion of all ARH certifications, with significant dates spanning from September 2023 to May 2025 [9]. Innovation and Management - KSB's Shanghai R&D team developed customized solutions for the MCPK pump model, which were successfully validated and applied in this project, setting a benchmark for similar pump technology upgrades [12]. - A cross-departmental special team was formed to ensure compliance with Sonatrach's "zero deviation" principle, enhancing design reliability and coordinating resources from 35 global production bases [13]. Global Network Support - KSB established five major spare parts warehouses across four continents to support Sinopec's overseas strategy, ensuring rapid response to urgent local project needs and reducing logistics costs through localized warehousing [14][16]. - The project represents a breakthrough in integrating KSB's MCPK pump with turbine units, providing a new path for the localization of equipment in Sinopec's overseas projects [18]. Industry Benchmark Effect - The project serves as a model for the integration of international brand technology with Chinese central enterprise collaboration, providing dual guarantees of technical compliance and cost competitiveness for "Chinese equipment" entering the high-end energy market in Africa [18].

Group 1 - Xiamen Huaxia International Power Development Co., Ltd. is advancing the construction of its 5th unit, a 660,000 kW ultra-supercritical reheat steam turbine generator, to replace aging coal-fired units 1 and 2, which will transition to emergency backup status [1] - The new unit is expected to reduce coal consumption by approximately 17%, saving about 139,000 tons of standard coal annually and decreasing carbon dioxide emissions by around 361,000 tons [1] - The project is supported by favorable financing conditions, significantly alleviating the financial burden of equipment upgrades for Huaxia Power [1] Group 2 - The China Development Bank (CDB) Xiamen Branch is actively utilizing the People's Bank of China's re-lending policy to provide preferential credit support for technology innovation and equipment upgrades, facilitating a smoother transition for enterprises [2] - Since the implementation of the large-scale equipment update policy in March 2022, CDB has issued over 50 billion yuan in special loans to support advanced equipment production and capacity construction [2] Group 3 - The CDB Tianjin Branch is supporting Sinopec's Tianjin Nangang 1.2 million tons/year ethylene project, which aims to achieve full localization of key equipment and enhance the production capacity of high-end new materials [3] - The project is expected to increase the ethylene production capacity at the Tianjin base to 2.5 million tons/year upon completion in November 2024, significantly benefiting the downstream industry [3] Group 4 - Nanjing Process Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is advancing the industrial application of high-end manufacturing equipment, focusing on upgrading rolling functional components essential for CNC machine tools [4] - The CDB Jiangsu Branch is providing financial support to enhance the intelligence and efficiency of production lines, with an expected capacity increase of over 100% [4] - CDB plans to continue strengthening financing support for technology upgrades and equipment renewal to promote high-end, intelligent, and green development in the industry [4]

Macro Analysis - In April 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure improved, with notable highlights including accelerated fiscal spending, particularly in infrastructure-related areas [2] - Fiscal revenue showed marginal improvement compared to Q1, with tax revenue recovering while non-tax revenue growth slowed [2] - The land market showed signs of improvement, supported by the issuance of new special bonds, leading to significant enhancements in government fund income and expenditure [2] Coal Industry - In 2024, coal companies are expected to see a decline in operating revenue and a decrease in operating cash flow, with significant net outflows in investment cash flow [3] - Financing cash flow continues to show net outflows, with high leverage levels and increasing debt, yet overall debt repayment capacity remains strong [3] - Profitability for coal companies in 2025 is anticipated to be constrained, but there is still support for overall profitability, with relatively ample operating cash flow [3] Bond Market - In April 2025, the total bond custody volume saw a slight increase month-on-month, with all types of bonds showing net increases [4] - Policy banks significantly reduced their bond custody volume, while other major institutions in the bond market increased their holdings [4] - The balance of repurchase bonds decreased seasonally, leading to a decline in the bond market leverage ratio [4] Restaurant Industry - The restaurant industry is expected to recover, with a gradual increase in market activity observed in Q1 2025 compared to the entire year of 2024 [5] - The number of restaurant outlets has increased, particularly in first-tier cities, driven by policy stimuli that are likely to enhance demand [5] - There is a notable trend towards affordable dining options, with high opening rates for essential and low-cost categories, indicating a continued focus on supply chain-related stocks [5] Power AI Industry - Vertiv plans to launch an 800 VDC power product series in the second half of 2026, supporting NVIDIA's computing platform [6] - This announcement aligns with market trends regarding AI data center power solutions, further validating the HVDC industry trajectory [6] - Recommended stocks to watch include Zhongheng Electric, Hewei Electric, Shenghong Co., Sifang Co., Magmi Tech, Kehua Data, and Keda [6] Transportation Industry - Recent easing of trade tensions between the US and China is expected to sustain the recovery in container shipping demand [9] - The average freight rates for US West and East Coast routes have increased significantly, with rates reaching 3091 and 4069 USD/FEU, respectively, reflecting a rise of 31.7% and 22.0% [9] Real Estate Company - Huafa Co. maintains stable dividend payouts while being cautious in investment and construction, with a notable decline in settlement resources [10] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 820 million, 960 million, and 1.12 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 15, and 12 times [10] - As a local leading state-owned enterprise, Huafa Co. has a solid financial position and focuses on quality land reserves in core cities, maintaining an "increase" rating [10]