交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年2月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能 利用率为26.1266%，环比减少1.20个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.16万吨，环比减少1.32%,样本企业产量为43.6万 吨，环比减少4.38%,样本企业装置检修量预估为103万吨，环比增加0.78%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或 将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为24.5%，环比减少0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%，环比持 平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为4.6163%，环比减 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in international oil prices due to geopolitical developments and supply dynamics, with a recent rebound in prices following a period of decline [1][2]. Group 2 - As of February 6, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $68.05 per barrel, down $1.27 (-1.83%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.55 per barrel, down $1.66 (-2.55%) [2]. - The global number of offshore self-elevating drilling rigs decreased by 6 to 370, with reductions in Southeast Asia, North America, and other regions [3]. - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.215 million barrels per day, a decrease of 481,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3]. - U.S. total crude oil inventory stood at 836 million barrels, a decrease of 3.241 million barrels (-0.39%) from the previous week [4]. - The price of biodiesel and biojet fuel remained stable, with the FOB price for ester-based biodiesel at $1,150 per ton [5]. Group 3 - Related companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the future week, asphalt prices will mainly fluctuate with the cost - end crude oil. The main factor influencing crude oil is geopolitics, but small - scale geopolitical frictions cannot reverse the weak fundamentals and oversupply situation of crude oil. [1] - Due to the continuous slump in domestic diesel prices and the large inventory pressure of refined oil in some Shandong refineries, the suppression of asphalt by full - storage may lead to a smooth decline in prices when the rigid demand after the Spring Festival fails to meet expectations. [1] - As the holiday approaches, the trading enthusiasm of asphalt may gradually fade, and investors need to pay attention to position risk control before the festival. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As the holiday approaches, the spot - end has "celebrated the New Year in advance", and the demand has dropped to zero. The previous continuous premium increase in the futures market has not been fully followed by the spot market. [1] - The increase in the discount quotation of Ma Rui crude oil has led some Shandong refineries to switch to other heavy - oil resources. The so - called raw material shortage is not the key factor restricting the refinery's operating rate, but it does have a certain impact on the long - term cost valuation. [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The update of the basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations is suspended due to compliance requirements. The update of the recent strategy review is also suspended. [10] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the coming month is 2800 - 3150 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.63% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.76%. [10] - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short asphalt futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce capital costs. [10] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy asphalt futures to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell put options to collect premiums. [10] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East have increased the upward elasticity of crude oil prices, and the discount quotation of Ma Rui crude oil has risen. [11][13] - **Negative Information**: No specific negative information was provided in the text. - **Spot Transaction Information**: This week, asphalt prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the futures market were favorable, and there was some rush - work demand in the south. However, in the north, the rigid demand stagnated, and the overall sales volume decreased. [15][16] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Geopolitical situation changes, including the latest shipping and arrival logistics of Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil, the export and shipment of Russian crude oil, the possibility of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the changes in floating storage inventory at sea. [17][22] - The progress and results of the subsequent US - Iran negotiations. [22] - The end of the asphalt consumption peak season, with demand under pressure. [17] - The US may cause the geopolitical premium of crude oil to decline by urging Ukraine to resolve the battlefield issue. [17] - The US may issue more threats of imposing tariffs under the pretext of national security. [17] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the asphalt futures price showed a volatile trend, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short - position of key asphalt seats has decreased, indicating that some institutions are more optimistic about the future market. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. [18] - **Basis Structure**: This week, the asphalt basis structure weakened, with the futures market at a premium. Frequent geopolitical disturbances supported market activity through low - price contract resources despite weak demand. [21] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The absolute price of asphalt jumped due to geopolitical factors, but the calendar spread structure remained in a weak C - structure, which is in line with the characteristics of the approaching off - season. [39] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - **Coking Material Market**: As of February 5th (compared with January 29th), the price of Shandong coking materials increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3650 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the refined oil market was positive, and the replenishment enthusiasm of middle - and lower - stream users was high, leading to a slight rebound in coking material prices. [43] - **Asphalt Market**: The mainstream transaction price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3220 - 3280 yuan/ton. Although the previous strong crude oil price supported the asphalt futures market, the weak demand led to few spot transactions. In the short term, the off - season demand and the planned resumption of production of some refineries may lead to a further decline in asphalt prices. [43] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: The CIF price of South Korean asphalt in East China is 395 - 405 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3180 - 3260 yuan/ton. Although the price of South Korean asphalt in February increased compared with January, it still has a price advantage, and the import volume in January and February remained high. [52] - **Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand Markets**: The CIF price of Singaporean asphalt in South China is 490 - 510 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3870 - 4030 yuan/ton; the CIF price of Thai asphalt in South China is 465 - 475 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3680 - 3760 yuan/ton. The price increase in the Singapore market was driven by crude oil and fuel oil, but the trading atmosphere has cooled down due to the decrease in rush - work demand. [52] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic Production**: In 2025, China's asphalt production was 28.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Among them, the production of PetroChina refineries increased by 33% year - on - year, Sinopec's decreased by 12% year - on - year, CNOOC's increased by 13% year - on - year, and local refineries' increased by 19% year - on - year. [55] - **Import**: The import volume of South Korean and other regions' asphalt remained at a relatively high level, and the price of some brands' March shipments continued to rise. [52] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - Most regions' demand has decreased due to temperature and the approaching holiday, and the operating rate of modified asphalt plants has continued to decline. [80] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side and Deduction - Some social warehouses in the Northeast, Northwest, and North China continued to store winter - storage resources; the inventory in the South China and Southwest regions decreased steadily due to some rush - work demand; the inventory in the Yangtze River Delta and Central China regions fluctuated little. [97] 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet from January to December 2025, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes. [119] 3.5.5 Weather Outlook In the next 10 days (February 8 - 17th), most of the regions in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, southern China, and the eastern part of the southwestern region will experience precipitation, which is higher than the same period in previous years. [120]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry [1]. Core Insights - The IEA and OPEC have revised down their global crude oil inventory expectations for 2026, indicating a more cautious outlook for supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][2]. - Predictions for global crude oil supply in 2026 are set at 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, showing an increase compared to 2025 [2][30]. - Global crude oil demand forecasts for 2026 are 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, reflecting a modest increase from 2025 [2][30]. - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude at 66.30 USD/barrel, WTI at 62.14 USD/barrel, and a notable increase in prices over the past month [3][9]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Overview - As of February 2, 2026, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals prices are 66.30, 62.14, 52.90, and 65.49 USD/barrel respectively, with Brent and WTI showing increases of 9.14% and 8.41% over the past month [9]. Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes for 2026 at +372.24, +282.58, and -56.86 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +199.32 thousand barrels per day [2][24]. Global Crude Oil Supply - The forecast for global crude oil supply in 2026 is 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC, with respective increases of +251.53, +138.75, and +122.43 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025 [2][30]. Global Crude Oil Demand - The demand forecast for 2026 is 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, with increases of +93.22, +113.81, and +136.34 thousand barrels per day from 2025 [2][30]. Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical developments, including the potential resumption of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, which initially eased risks but later saw a resurgence following military incidents [2][9]. - As of February 6, 2026, Brent and WTI oil prices were reported at $68.05 and $63.55 per barrel, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 1.83% and 2.55% from the previous week [2][25]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $68.05 per barrel, down $1.27 (-1.83%), while WTI futures were at $63.55, down $1.66 (-2.55%) [2][25]. - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, and ESPO crude fell to $54.91, down $0.55 (-0.99%) [2][25]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 370, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, while floating drilling rigs totaled 132, down by 2 [28]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.215 million barrels per day, a decrease of 481,000 barrels from the previous week [35]. - The active rig count in the U.S. increased by 1 to 412 rigs as of February 6, 2026 [35]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.029 million barrels per day, down by 180,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 90.50%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points [43]. U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 836 million barrels, a decrease of 3.241 million barrels (-0.39%) from the previous week [52]. - Strategic oil inventories increased slightly to 415 million barrels, while commercial inventories decreased to 420 million barrels [52]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3].

Group 1 - The stock price of International Industry (000159) closed at 6.95 yuan on February 6, 2026, down 1.14% from 7.03 yuan the previous week, with a market cap of 3.341 billion yuan, ranking 63rd in the photovoltaic equipment sector and 4479th in the A-share market [1] - As of January 30, 2026, the number of shareholders increased to 43,700, a growth of 1.69%, with an average shareholding of 11,000 shares per shareholder, translating to an average market value of 77,400 yuan [1][3] - The second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders was held on February 4, 2026, with 270 participants representing 116,957,177 shares, accounting for 24.33% of the total share capital, and approved proposals for comprehensive credit limits and guarantee limits for 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - Beijing Guofeng Law Firm confirmed the legality of the procedures and results of the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders, which approved the proposals for applying for comprehensive credit limits and guarantee limits for 2026 [1][2]

跟随成本，短期观望 沥青月报 2026/02/06 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 相关指标 03 供应端 07 产业链结构图 04 库存 01 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：沥青主力合约近月走势（￥/吨） 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 3,200.0 3,400.0 3,600.0 3,800.0 4,000.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月6日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至24.5%，较去年同期高了0.1个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨， 减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。本周，临近春节，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌， 其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至9%。本周，山东地区在价格上涨后终端需求疲软，其出货量 减少较多，全国出货量环比减少1.33%至21.16万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小幅下 降，处于近年来同期的最低位。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生 产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴 水13美元/桶大幅缩小，印度石油公司高管表示，委内瑞拉石油以每桶较迪拜原油贴水4-5美元的折 扣报价，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计还是较美国介入前大幅下降，关注国内 炼厂原料短缺情况。下周齐鲁石化、岚桥石化等炼厂复产沥青，沥青开工低位小幅增加。临 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of asphalt is decreasing, with the start - up rate at a low level and expected production in February 2026 decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream demand is weak, with most downstream industries' start - up rates falling, and the overall market is affected by factors such as raw material supply and geopolitical situation. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate in the short term, and the strategy of reverse arbitrage is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to be produced 193.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4 million tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5 million tons (6.5%). Shandong refineries' production and shipments decreased. This week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, keeping the asphalt start - up at a low level [1] - Demand side: The start - up rates of most downstream industries of asphalt fell last week. Road asphalt start - up remained flat at 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. Northern rigid demand is basically stagnant, but there is inventory - arbitrage demand, and southern projects are gradually coming to an end [1] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - Raw materials: Venezuelan heavy crude oil supply to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be much lower than before the US intervention [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis has been repaired but is still at a low level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the rebound of crude oil prices, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 1.69% to 3361 yuan/ton today, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3311 yuan/ton, the highest was 3384 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 11,833 to 98,945 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 111 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The start - up rate of asphalt decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transport decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [4] - Downstream start - up: As of the week of January 30, most downstream industries' start - up rates of asphalt fell, and the road asphalt start - up remained flat at 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather [1][4] - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.2 percentage points compared with that from January to November [4] - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to rising international oil price fluctuations, effective from February 3 at 24:00 [1] Group 1: Price Changes - Domestic gasoline price will increase by 205 yuan per ton, while diesel price will rise by 195 yuan per ton [1] Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The National Development and Reform Commission has instructed major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, to ensure stable supply and compliance with national pricing policies [1] - Local authorities are required to enhance market supervision and strictly investigate any violations of national pricing policies to maintain normal market order [1] - Consumers are encouraged to report price violations through the 12315 platform [1]