低硫供应缺口短期内仍存 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 俄罗斯离线炼厂产能减少同时大型出口港口Tuapse和 Novorossiysk陆续受袭影响出口，俄罗斯近端高硫出口较前两个月下行，预期 一定程度上缓解近端燃料油供应充裕压力。墨西哥及中东出口环比稳定。需求端，26年新一批原油配额预期于11月提前下发，燃油进 料需求预期环比减弱。 低硫供应缺口短期内仍存。中东Al-Zour装置延期回归，12月前预期不再有低硫出口供应。泛新加坡地区低硫过剩供应预期随着RFCC 装置开 ...

天眼查工商信息显示，近日，中海石油炼化有限责任公司发生工商变更，注册资本由约189.95亿人民币 增至约512.94亿人民币，增幅约170%，佘浩滨卸任该公司法定代表人，由刘建忠接任，同时部分主要 人员发生变更。中海石油炼化有限责任公司成立于2005年11月，经营范围含成品油批发、成品油仓储、 石油制品制造、化工产品生产等。股东信息显示，该公司由中国海洋石油集团有限公司全资持股。 ...

Core Insights - The "Two Countries, Twin Parks" initiative between Malaysia and China is enhancing cross-border collaboration and driving economic growth in both nations [1][5] - The project has led to the establishment of a robust cross-border industrial and supply chain system, significantly improving regional economic cooperation [1][3] Group 1: Project Development - The Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park and the China-Malaysia Qinzhou Industrial Park are expanding their cooperation, focusing on port connectivity and industrial collaboration [1] - New projects in the Kuantan Industrial Park cover sectors such as food, metallurgy, and silicon materials, with plans to introduce AI and green industries [1][3] - The Kuantan Port has established direct shipping routes to Guangxi, significantly reducing transportation times for Southeast Asian tropical fruits and enhancing customs efficiency [2] Group 2: Economic Impact - The cargo throughput between Beibu Gulf Port and Kuantan Port increased by 136% year-on-year, with a focus on chemical products, metal ores, and agricultural products [2] - The Qinzhou Industrial Park has attracted 23 companies, with 13 obtaining qualifications for importing raw bird's nests, showcasing the park's role in the full industrial chain [3] - The completion of the integrated refining and chemical project at Qinzhou Port is expected to enhance the green chemical new materials industry cluster, benefiting downstream industries [3] Group 3: Future Prospects - The "Two Countries, Twin Parks" model is evolving from point-to-point cooperation to chain-to-chain collaboration, expanding its industrial reach and operational capabilities [4] - Recent investment agreements signed during the China-ASEAN Expo cover various sectors, including AI, food processing, logistics, and new energy materials, injecting new momentum into the initiative [3][4]

位于伏尔加河沿岸的卢克石油公司炼油厂，依旧冒着遮天蔽日的浓烟。这座年处理1570万吨原油的炼油 厂，占据了全俄炼油总量的5.6%，是俄罗斯能源供应的重要节点，然而它在乌克兰的精确打击下轰然 倒塌。冲天的火焰将夜空染成了血红色，这一击犹如重拳直击俄罗斯的经济要害。虽然前线的钢铁洪流 可能还未意识到，但它们的燃料补给线已经被彻底撕裂，伤口鲜血淋漓。更北方的科斯特罗马州，3700 兆瓦的福尔戈列琴斯克发电站也在昨晚的爆炸声中轰然倒塌。这个电力巨头的倒塌，不仅让城市陷入了 黑暗，还像是一盆冷水泼灭了俄罗斯民众对寒冬的期盼。当普京还在电视上吹嘘能源安全时，乌克兰的 导弹已经揭开了这个帝国最脆弱的软肋。 话已被无人机撕得粉碎。当莫斯科的精英们看到科斯特罗马上空的火光，当普通民众在断电的寒夜中颤 抖时，那层被宣传美化的外衣也开始剥落。俄罗斯的经济正承受着越来越沉重的压力——石油管道如同 被掐住的血管，炼油设备如同坏死的器官，而军费开支的"怪兽"仍在吞噬着国库的最后一滴血。 最致命的寒冬或许尚未到来。等到供暖管道变成冰冷的铁管，电视屏幕变得永远漆黑，那些曾被宣传麻 醉的民众终将觉醒——原来特别军事行动的账单，是要用自己孩子的 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential turning point in the refining industry as it experiences improved profitability and the impact of "anti-involution" policies on the sector [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Four major private refining companies in A-shares—Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Hengyi Petrochemical—saw stock price increases of 7.26%, 11.92%, 9.40%, and 8.06% respectively as of November 11 [1]. - Rongsheng Petrochemical reported a net profit of 286 million yuan for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 1427%, while Hengli Petrochemical achieved a net profit of 1.972 billion yuan, with an 81% growth rate, making it the top performer among the four [1][3]. - Hengyi Petrochemical turned a profit in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 204 million yuan, while Dongfang Shenghong's net profit improved significantly, reducing its loss by nearly 1.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The refining industry had been stagnant for several years due to global economic downturns affecting oil prices and resulting in low processing fees, limiting profit margins [2][4]. - The introduction of energy consumption limits in Q3 has accelerated the exit of outdated capacities, leading to a rapid improvement in refining companies' profits [2][5]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to stabilized crude oil prices, improved refining margins for PX and finished oil, and enhanced collaboration with strategic investors like Saudi Aramco [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Impact - A series of policies aimed at curbing low-price competition have been implemented, including mandatory energy consumption limits for refining products, which are expected to phase out inefficient capacities [5][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan for 2025-2026 emphasizes controlling new refining capacities and improving the entry threshold for leading refining companies [6][7]. Group 4: Demand Outlook - Despite global demand pressures, China's chemical product demand remains resilient, with growth rates of 5%-10% or higher, driven by emerging applications in new energy and electronics [7]. - The expectation of a recovery in industrial product demand in the next 2-3 years, alongside stabilization in domestic demand, suggests a gradual improvement in chemical product demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - The refining industry in China is experiencing a significant turnaround, driven by improved profitability among major private refining companies and supportive government policies aimed at reducing low-cost competition and enhancing industry standards [1][5][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Four major private refining companies in A-shares—Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Hengyi Petrochemical—saw stock price increases of 7.26%, 11.92%, 9.40%, and 8.06% respectively as of November 11 [1]. - Rongsheng Petrochemical reported a net profit of 286 million yuan for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 1427% [3]. - Hengli Petrochemical achieved a net profit of 1.972 billion yuan in Q3, with an 81% year-on-year growth, marking it as the top performer among the four companies [1][3]. - Hengyi Petrochemical turned a profit in Q3, with a net profit increase of approximately 204 million yuan, while Dongfang Shenghong's losses narrowed significantly, with a Q3 net profit improvement of nearly 1.5 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The refining industry has faced several years of challenges due to global economic downturns and low processing fees, but recent government policies have begun to clear out outdated capacities and improve profit margins [2][4]. - The introduction of energy consumption limits in Q3 has accelerated the exit of inefficient production capacities, leading to a rapid improvement in refining profits [2][5]. - The refining sector is expected to see a turnaround in 2025, supported by ongoing "anti-involution" policies aimed at stabilizing prices and enhancing industry standards [2][5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The refining industry has historically struggled with low profitability, particularly in the "chemical" segment, but recent increases in domestic PX production have shifted the market from a supply shortage to a more balanced supply situation [4]. - New policies aimed at curbing low-cost competition and promoting the exit of inefficient capacities are expected to strengthen the market position of leading refining companies [5][6]. - Despite global demand pressures, China's chemical product demand remains resilient, with growth rates of 5%-10% or higher in certain sectors, driven by emerging applications in new energy and electronics [7].

Summary of the Conference Call for Rongsheng Petrochemical Company Overview - **Company**: Rongsheng Petrochemical - **Industry**: Petrochemical Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Rongsheng Petrochemical achieved a revenue of **792 billion CNY** and a net profit attributable to shareholders of **2.86 billion CNY**, showing improvements both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3][6][5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached **227.8 billion CNY** with a net profit of **8.88 billion CNY** [6][5] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities increased by **20%** year-on-year, amounting to **236 billion CNY** [6][5] Shareholder Returns - The company completed a share repurchase of **1.998 billion CNY** in July 2025 and the controlling shareholder initiated a buyback plan totaling nearly **3 billion CNY** [3][4] - These actions reflect the management's confidence in the company's long-term value [3][4] Industry Dynamics - The petrochemical industry is currently in a cyclical downturn, but there are signs of recovery due to policy support and market adjustments [3][4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan in September to stabilize growth in the petrochemical sector, focusing on technological innovation and investment optimization [4][3] Operational Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end materials and international cooperation to enhance global competitiveness [4][3] - Plans to optimize capital expenditure by concentrating on differentiated and high-return new materials [4][3] Market Conditions - International oil prices fluctuated between **65-70 USD** per barrel in Q3, with OPEC+ canceling voluntary production cuts [7][6] - The company exported **235,000 tons** of refined oil, with a total refined oil production of **12 million tons** in the first three quarters [10][7] PTA and Polyester Segment - PTA processing fees are at historical lows, averaging less than **200 CNY** per ton in Q3, down from **300 CNY** in Q2 [18][19] - The company has reduced PTA production loads in response to market conditions, collaborating with other leading firms to stabilize the market [21][22] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in the petrochemical sector, with potential improvements in profitability as the industry adjusts to reduced capacity and market demands [42][43] - Upcoming projects include high-performance materials and new energy materials, with expected production starting in **2026** [49][50] Risk Management - The company has a diversified and compliant global procurement strategy, focusing on stable sources like Saudi Arabia to mitigate geopolitical risks [14][15] - The impact of international sanctions on the industry is acknowledged, but the company maintains a strong position due to its resource integration capabilities [16][14] Conclusion - Rongsheng Petrochemical is navigating a challenging market environment with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and shareholder value. The focus on high-end materials and international collaboration positions the company well for future growth as the industry recovers from cyclical lows [3][4][42][43]

Core Insights - India's electronic product exports have surged from $15.6 billion to $22.2 billion, marking a 42% year-on-year increase, potentially making it the second-largest export category after engineering products in the coming years [1] - The growth of electronic exports is attributed to the government's Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, transforming India from a net importer to a net exporter of smartphones [1] - In FY2022, electronic products ranked as India's seventh-largest export category, surpassing jewelry, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and garments in recent years [1] Group 1 - The export of electronic products has increased by 63% over the past three years, with projections indicating a potential doubling of exports from FY2023 to FY2026 [1] - In September, smartphone exports were estimated to exceed $1.8 billion, reflecting a growth of over 95% compared to the previous year [1][2] - Nearly half of the electronic export value comes from Apple iPhone shipments, with iPhone exports valued at approximately $10 billion, accounting for about 45% of total electronic exports [2] Group 2 - The decline of oil products as a major export category is noted, with oil exports expected to drop from $97.4 billion in FY2023 to $63.3 billion in FY2025 [2] - The decrease in oil exports is attributed to the loss of cost advantages due to U.S. sanctions affecting low-cost Russian oil supplies [2] - Despite significant progress in the electronic manufacturing sector, challenges remain, including a reliance on imports for over 80% of electronic components, which raises production costs by 10%-20% compared to countries like China and Vietnam [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jingmen Petrochemical has successfully passed the aviation fuel certification and is now approved to produce civil jet fuel type 3, aligning with the clean energy development strategy and focusing on technological innovation [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Jingmen Petrochemical has accelerated the transformation and upgrading of its traditional refining and chemical business through systematic technological renovations of two existing production units [1] - The company has successfully converted its production from diesel components to civil aviation kerosene components, enhancing its production capacity [1] - After rigorous quality verification processes, the technical renovation project completed the validation of three batches of products on September 26 [1] Group 2: Production Capacity - The newly added aviation fuel production facility is expected to increase the monthly output of aviation kerosene by over 3,000 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ) is a global leader in the energy and chemical industry, with a fully integrated vertical supply chain and a strong focus on new energy and new materials [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company operates in multiple sectors, including petroleum refining, new energy and new materials, and polyester fibers [1] - Dongfang Shenghong has an EVA production capacity of 900,000 tons per year and a POE production capacity of 100,000 tons per year [1] Group 2: Product Applications - The company's products are utilized in downstream applications such as photovoltaic encapsulation materials [1] - The production and sales of these products are reported to be smooth [1]