南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月17日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 35.2% | 0.00% | 96.3% | -0.2% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 45.45% | 2.06% | 85.07% | 3.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 为 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | 导 向 | | | | | | | 库 | | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来锁定利 润 ...

主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：中信建投、持仓17906、增仓3711，东吴期货、持仓4712、增仓2673，中信期货、 持仓11368、增仓2039；空头减仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓2543、减仓-465，招商期货、持仓3570、减仓-360，申银万国、 持仓2463、减仓-202。 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年7月17日多晶硅主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | J | 中信期货 | 112,607 | 16.207 | 国泰君安期货 | 23,606 | 5.499 | 中信建投 17,906 | | 3,711 | | 2 | 国泰君安期货 | 89,388 | 15.112 | 浙商期货 | 19,398 | 1.748 | 中信期货 | 11,368 | 2,039 | | 3 | 中信建投 | 5 ...

南华贵金属日报: 美CPI削弱9月降息预期 贵金属承压调整 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月16日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场呈现调整，美指和10Y美债收益率大幅走高对其形成利空压力，周边美股和比特币下跌， 原油震荡，南华有色金属震荡。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3330.5美元/盎司，-0.85%；美白银2509合 约收报于37.985美元/盎司，-1.95%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约780.4元/克，+1.06%；SHFE白银2510合约 收9225元/千克，+0.52%。近期美国贸易关税交易重回焦点。美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，为2月以来最高纪 录，预期2.6%，前值2.4%；环比0.3%，符合预期，前值0.1%，涨幅扩大主要受能源价格上涨影响。核心CPI 同比上涨2.9%，符合预期，前值2.8%；环比涨幅0.2%，高于前值0.1%，但低于预期0.3%，为连续第五个月 低于预期。数据整体反映关税对美通胀影响仍处于初步阶段。数据后贵金属承压调整，降息预期整体略有降 温。美联储26年票委洛根表示，基准预期是货币政策需 ...

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service called "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7100-7400 | 12.32% | 21.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | 析 | 口 | | | 向 | | 区间 | | | 产成品 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空塑料 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7250-73 | | | 库存偏 | | 期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | 00 | | 库存管 | 高，担 | 多 | | | | | | | 理 | 心 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Iron Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 20.20%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 54.1% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 13.67%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 18.9% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 15% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 6200 - 6250, SM 6400 - 6500 [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 5100 - 5200, SM 5300 - 5400 [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Market Trend - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloys maintained a slow upward trend. With profit recovery, the operating rate increased, and production was above the seasonal level. Production slightly increased, but downstream demand didn't change significantly. Silicon iron showed a stockpiling trend, and the de - stocking speed of silicon manganese slowed down. Considering factors such as the reduction of manganese ore quotes in August, the resumption of Australian ore shipments, and the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferroalloys are expected to remain weak. After the market recovery, there is a high possibility of increased production due to profit repair, and supply pressure may gradually increase. Silicon iron is under pressure at 5600 - 5700, and silicon manganese at 5800 - 5900. However, the overall price center of the black sector has moved up, and coal prices are strengthening, so the downside space of ferroalloys is limited. Ferroalloys may maintain a volatile trend [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia production area profit: - 261.5 yuan/ton (+70); Ningxia production area profit: - 98 yuan/ton (+50). With profit repair, there is a possibility of increased production. The weekly operating rate of silicon iron producers is 31.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75%, and the weekly output is 9.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [3] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32). The enterprise inventory is 22.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67%; the warehouse receipts are 42.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1%; the total inventory is 64.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.96% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Iron - This week, the enterprise inventory is 7.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.78%. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical level after re - registration following the June cancellation rule. The expected decline in hot metal production weakens the support for ferroalloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and the decline of the black sector make the market skeptical about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese producers is 40.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, and the weekly output is 18.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Iron - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 66, the 01 - 05 spread is - 60, the 05 - 09 spread is 134, the 09 - 01 spread is - 74. The spot prices in different regions and the prices of related raw materials and warehouse receipts are also provided [8] Silicon Manganese - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 168, the 01 - 05 spread is - 34, the 05 - 09 spread is 74, the 09 - 01 spread is - 40, the double - silicon spread is - 298. The spot prices in different regions, the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials, and warehouse receipts are also provided [9][10] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - The report provides seasonal charts of silicon iron market price, basis, futures spreads, and total inventory, as well as silicon manganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand support is expected to strengthen, but inventory remains at a historical high. Overall, the price will show a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of placing long orders for industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, the expected reduction in electricity prices and increased profits may boost production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory pressure persists. If effective industry integration or coordinated production reduction measures are implemented, it may reverse the current situation. It is recommended to focus on the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 - PS2511 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon **Futures Data** - The industrial silicon futures main contract shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.5%, a daily decline of 0.19%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 96.3%. The main contract's closing price was 8785 yuan/ton, with a 1.04% increase; trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, down 3.87%; and open interest was 396,653 lots, down 1.55% [2][12]. - The SI09 - 11 spread was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SI11 - 12 spread was - 290 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [14]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions have increased, such as the East China 553 at 9150 yuan/ton, up 1.67%, and the East China 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, up 2.15%. The East China 553 basis was 365 yuan/ton, up 19.67%, and the East China 421 basis was 715 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The East China 421 - 553 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [16]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts were 50,258 lots, up 29.69%. Warehouse receipts in various delivery warehouses showed different changes, such as a 6.59% increase in the Tianjin delivery warehouse to 10.1 million tons [22][23]. Polysilicon **Futures Data** - The polysilicon futures main contract also shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.05%, a daily decline of 0.94%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 82.57%. The main contract's closing price was 42,470 yuan/ton, with a 1.69% increase; trading volume was 565,746 lots, up 20.29%; and open interest was 69,821 lots, down 10.86% [2][25]. - The PS08 - 09 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 9.38%; the PS08 - 11 spread was 1530 yuan/ton, down 5.56%; the PS09 - 11 spread was 1180 yuan/ton, down 9.23%; the PS11 - 12 spread was - 2270 yuan/ton, down 5.34% [27]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of polysilicon showed little change. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index remained at 43.45 yuan/kg, and the particle silicon price decreased by 1.15% to 43 yuan/kg [32]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data** - The polysilicon main contract basis was 980 yuan/ton, down 41.84%; the PS2509 contract basis was 1330 yuan/ton, down 33.7%; the PS2511 contract basis was 2510 yuan/ton, down 24.05%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remained unchanged [39][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Continue to hold [1] Core Viewpoints - The bearish factors in the bond market have basically been exhausted today. The central bank's press conference on Monday and the outright repo have alleviated market concerns about regulatory and capital tightening. The June economic data has further highlighted the supply - demand contradiction, and the market's judgment on the fundamentals has been verified again. The Central Urban Work Conference in the afternoon focused on modernization, innovation, livability, and smart cities, and the expectation of shantytown renovation has also been dashed. The market sentiment has reversed, and the market may continue to rise in the short term, but after the sentiment is digested, the market may return to a volatile pattern [3] Content Summary by Related Catalogs Disk Review - Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher, quickly rose after the release of economic data during the session, and strengthened throughout the day, closing higher across the board. In the open market, 69 billion yuan matured today, and the central bank conducted 342.5 billion yuan of 7 - day pledged repurchase, with a net investment of 273.5 billion yuan [1] Intraday News - On the 15th, Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a press conference that relevant departments are formulating measures to regulate market order, which is conducive to promoting the improvement of market supply - demand relations, price recovery, corporate profits, and economic structure adjustment [2] Market Judgment - The bearish factors in the bond market have basically been exhausted. The central bank's press conference and the outright repo have eased market concerns; the economic data has verified the market's judgment on fundamentals; the Central Urban Work Conference disappointed the market in terms of shantytown renovation expectations. The market sentiment has reversed, and it may continue to rise in the short term, but will return to a volatile pattern after the sentiment is digested [3] Data Overview - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On July 15, 2025, compared with July 14, 2025, TS2509 rose 0.036 to 102.414, TF2509 rose 0.13 to 106.015, T2509 rose 0.19 to 108.885, and TL2509 rose 0.57 to 120.77 [4] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 324 to 124,685 hands, TF contract positions decreased by 2,605 to 206,300 hands, T contract positions decreased by 2,210 to 236,332 hands, and TL contract positions decreased by 276 to 152,088 hands [4] - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) rose 0.0193 to 0.0192, TF basis (CTD) rose 0.0223 to 0.0428, T basis (CTD) fell 0.0301 to - 0.0004, and TL basis (CTD) fell 0.007 to 0.3404 [4] - **Transaction Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 767 to 32,348 hands, TF main contract trading volume decreased by 14,377 to 48,707 hands, T main contract trading volume decreased by 1,759 to 67,445 hands, and TL main contract trading volume decreased by 820 to 91,330 hands [4] - **Funding Rates and Changes**: DR001 rose 0.0813 to 1.424, DR007 rose 0.0642 to 1.536, and DR014 rose 0.0249 to 1.5609. DR001 trading volume decreased by 380.50451 billion yuan to 2,336.61307 billion yuan, DR007 trading volume increased by 78.7651 billion yuan to 1,063.5984 billion yuan, and DR014 trading volume increased by 2.2952 billion yuan to 110.983 billion yuan [4]

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service called "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年7月14日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.98% | 40.88% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上 ...