来源：千图网 国际黄金和白银价格2日大幅下跌，其中黄金期货价格一度回落至每盎司4500美元下方。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格当天一度跌至每盎司4429.2美元，白银期货价格一度跌至每盎司72.35美元。 国际黄金和白银价格近期刷新历史高点后出现剧烈波动。与1月29日创下的历史最高点相比，2日白银价格盘中低点的累计跌幅已达40%，金价累 计跌幅约20%。 多家银行机构、上海黄金交易所等近期提醒投资者警惕市场波动风险，理性投资。 有分析称，近期国际贵金属价格剧烈波动的原因包括美联储主席提名打破市场鸽派预期、短期获利了结与杠杆资金踩踏和白银投机属性强烈放大 波动。 南华期货分析师夏莹莹指出，本轮贵金属价格的剧烈波动已明显超出基本面能够解释的范围，情绪因素成为主导力量。"前期看涨仓位过度拥 挤，在突发消息冲击下，负向反馈机制被迅速激活，技术性抛压集中释放，最终形成踩踏式下跌。" 中信证券指出，2026年全球主要经济体将延续流动性宽松态势，贵金属价屡创新高激发了投资者对商品的交易热潮，白银、铜、锡、碳酸锂等品 种或受益于活跃交易实现价格超预期上涨。该机构认为，在经历2025年的行情大涨后，有色金属价格和股票行情的上涨动 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 调查：金价过山车！暴涨暴跌后你敢加仓吗？ 上周五夜盘，沪银全合约跌停，海外白银价格一度跌超30%。周一开盘后，沪银继续封死跌停，外盘银 价继续下挫。从传导因素来看，特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任主席，市场普遍将其视为相 对"鹰派"的人选，此举迅速扭转了市场对美联储未来维持超宽松货币政策的预期，导致美元指数反弹， 对以美元计价的贵金属形成直接打压。但内在原因在于贵金属市场极端拥挤的多头持仓与技术性抛压， 触发连锁的"多头踩踏式出逃"。此外，芝商所上调金银期货保证金比例、主要商品指数因金银权重超标 而进行的强制性再平衡抛售，均放大了技术性卖压。 后续来看，当前国内市场白银供需紧张矛盾仍存，但白银价格大跌或使得投资需求大幅减少，现货紧缺 的矛盾有望缓解。至于价格何时止跌，需关注何时盘面逻辑向之前的弱美元交易、避险交易转换。本周 五美国劳工部将发布1月非农就业数据，随着美联储主席提名人选尘埃落定，预计市场的关注点将重新 回到美国经济数据上来。目前市场预测1月新增非农就业人数增加6.8万人（前值+5万）；预测1月失业 率为4.4%，持平前值，即市 ...

期货策略周报 I 2026 年 02 月 02 日 下一个风口在哪里？ 本周主要观点： 综合各个板块的节奏，随着有色和贵金属板块的大幅、集中 式的下跌调整，以充分释放风险，其他板块的行情可能也随之而 来，资金需要寻找新的主题行情，反内卷主题的相关品种较多， 估值也较低，具有一定安全边际，体量也足够容纳来自有色和贵 金属溢出的资金量。可以重点关注。国家政策决心深入整治内卷 式竞争，调节供给侧的动态调整能力，我们认为 2026 年的主题行 情，反内卷或不可避免。 风险点：宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、政策不及预期； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 南华研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 市场具有太多的不确定性，依靠频繁地预测，难以走出困局。我们要摒弃对行 情的预测，而依赖于策略。追风1号和追风2号咨询产品，每日推送报告，推荐交易 品种和离场规则。可以在【南华期货app—研报精选—策略研选】的路径下订阅， 两款 ...

Group 1: Oilseeds and Oils - Domestic oilseeds and oils showed strong performance in January, with oil prices rising more than protein meal prices. Palm oil and rapeseed oil outperformed soybean oil [3][13] - The increase in prices is driven by a general rise in commodity prices, higher crude oil prices, and the destocking of oilseeds and oils [3][13] - Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, with the largest state, Mato Grosso, advancing quickly. However, overall harvest progress is slower than in previous years, leading to delayed selling by farmers due to low prices and currency appreciation [3][13] - The upcoming weather conditions in South America, particularly in early February, will be crucial for soybean yield realization, which could lead to a decline in global soybean prices if no significant issues arise [3][13] - Domestic feed consumption is expected to remain stable compared to last year, with high soybean meal supply maintaining a balance in supply and demand [3][13] Group 2: Eggs - After the New Year, egg prices rebounded due to increased demand, but supply remains ample, leading to a cautious market outlook for future egg production [15][16] - As of January 30, the main egg futures contract saw a weekly decline of 1.44% but a monthly increase of 1.73% [15][16] - The increase in egg prices has improved farming profits, with a reported profit of 0.66 yuan per jin as of January 29, up 0.89 yuan from the previous month [16] Group 3: Corn - The USDA report in January was bearish for U.S. corn, leading to a significant price drop, with production estimates raised to a record 17.021 billion bushels [17][18] - Domestic corn prices showed fluctuations, with a weekly average of 2332 yuan per ton as of January 29, while sales in production areas increased ahead of the Lunar New Year [18] - The market is currently experiencing a balance in supply and demand, with traders building inventories and executing previous orders [18] Group 4: Pork - In January, live hog prices initially rose but then fell, with the national average price at 12.14 yuan per kilogram, down 0.66 yuan from the previous month [19][20] - The number of breeding sows decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a potential impact on future supply [20][21] - As of January 30, the operating rate of slaughterhouses was 41.59%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week but a decrease from the previous month [22]

南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 胡剑铭 周内（1月26日至1月30日），大宗商品市场分化加剧。基本金属板块涨跌不一，贵金属板块冲高回 落。 具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨6.70%、原油上涨6.54%；黑色系板块，焦煤周下跌0.13%、 焦炭下跌0.03%、铁矿石下跌0.44%；基本金属板块，碳酸锂周下跌18.36%、沪锌上涨5.08%、沪镍下跌 5.63%；贵金属板块，沪金周上涨4.10%、沪银上涨11.92%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周下跌1.44%、生猪下跌 2.98%。 交易行情热点 热点一：投机情绪降温，黄金冲高后大幅回落 本周黄金期货市场经历剧烈波动，前期受地缘避险情绪推动创下历史新高后，因美联储政策预期生 变大幅回调。截至1月30日，沪金主力2604合约报1161.42元/克，周涨4.10%；伦敦金收于4880美元/盎 司，周跌2.07%，日内最大跌幅达9.29%，创40年来最大单日跌幅。 供给上，全球黄金供应保持稳定，矿山产量与回收量稳步释放，未出现明显缺口。2025年全球黄金 总需求达5002吨创历史新高，但供应端未出现大幅波动，供需格局相对均衡。央行售金规模有限，新兴 国家央行延续购金态势，进一 ...

第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 南华期货白糖产业周报 ——盘面减仓上涨，警惕回落风险 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月1日 1月以来3-5价差持续震荡，上周价差小幅回升平水，因03合约受空头大幅减仓拉升，涨幅大于05。备货 行情结束后，3-5价差或迎来回落，因03合约处于国产糖库存的高峰期，且今年春节备货成交一般，后续库存 压力偏大，因此03压力会比05更大。关注后续3-5价差收缩的交易机会。 . 白糖期货月差（03-05）季节性 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 2303-2305 2403-2405 2503-2505 2603-2605 07/01 09/01 11/01 01/01 -100 -50 0 50 100 白糖工业库存季节性 source： 中糖协,南华研究 万吨 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 200 400 600 ∗ 远端交易逻辑 SR2605合约贴水广西现货， ...

"见证历史""惊掉下巴""这也跌太多了吧"，一夜醒来，朋友圈被黄金白银暴跌的感慨刷屏了， 有投资者感叹"一下吞掉了五天的涨幅"。 记者丨 唐婧 实习生 曹莹博 编辑丨方海平 视频丨许婷婷 关于沃什真正的货币政策立场，市场也有颇多不同声音。公开信息显示，沃什曾公开批评量化 宽松政策的副作用，认为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作。在美联储任职期 间，沃什一直对通胀保持警惕，并经常支持加息。然而，2025年他却赞同特朗普的观点，认为 利率可以大幅降低，也因此被市场质疑或向政治妥协。 资料图 国联民生证券研究所宏观首席分析师林彦指出，在本次美联储主席提名竞选中，沃什明确表示 支持降息，并直言当前利率水平"应当更低"。这一表态正好符合特朗普政府的政策诉求，也在 一定程度上缓解了特朗普团队对其"鹰派"立场的担忧。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹告诉记者，相较于另两位热门人选贝莱德公司高管 里德以及白宫经济顾问哈塞特， 沃什的立场相对偏鹰派，且更倾向于维护美联储的独立性， 这一预期弱化了市场对美联储宽松货币政策的预期，对金银价格形成了一定压制。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，1月30日晚间，国际黄金、白银又 ...

新华财经上海1月29日电（葛佳明） 1月29日早间，现货黄金快速突破5500美元，最高逼近5600美元，再度刷新纪录。过去4个交易日，现货金价已连破每 盎司5000美元、5100美元、5200美元、5300美元、5400美元、5500美元这6道整百关口。 国际金价的上涨传导至国内市场，29日早间，国内部分主流金饰品牌报价刷新至1700元／克，创下历史新高，单日上涨百元左右。 地缘政治紧张、"去美元化"交易升温与贸易政策不确定性持续构成风险，推动贵金属市场走势。但随着交易所连续提保扩板抑制投机，机构也普遍警示短 期回调风险，而贵金属价格的持续高位高波动，也使得风险防控成为当前市场关注的核心议题。 金价加速上行 从价格走势来看，黄金市场近期呈现出加速上行的态势。数据显示，1月26日早盘，现货黄金率先突破每盎司5000美元整数关口，午后再度攀升至5100美 元；1月28日黄金持续拉涨，早盘突破5200美元，午后冲上5300美元，尾盘则升至5400美元，单日连破三道关口；1月29日早盘金价涨势不止，一举突破 5500美元并一度逼近5600美元，4天内完成6道整百美元关口的突破，创下全球黄金市场短期上涨速度的新纪录。 ...

Core Insights - The futures industry in China has shown robust growth in 2025, with total net profit reaching 11 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's 9.47 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [1][2] - The increase in net profit outpaced revenue growth, reflecting improved operational effectiveness within the industry [2] - The market environment has shifted, leading to increased demand for risk management from real economy enterprises, which has positively impacted the futures market [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In December 2025, the total revenue of 150 futures companies reached 4.918 billion yuan, with a net profit of 684 million yuan, both showing month-on-month growth [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the cumulative revenue was 42.015 billion yuan, surpassing 41.293 billion yuan in 2024, while cumulative net profit was 11 billion yuan, up from 9.471 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The cumulative trading volume and trading value in the futures market increased by 17.4% and 23.74% year-on-year, respectively, providing a solid foundation for business development [2] Group 2: Business Structure and Strategy - The futures industry is transitioning from a reliance on traditional brokerage services to a model that emphasizes diversified business collaboration and comprehensive service empowerment [1][2] - Internal business structure optimization has become a key driver for net profit growth, with risk management, asset management, proprietary investment, and international business emerging as new profit sources [2][3] - The growth of over-the-counter derivatives and the increase in asset management scale and actively managed products indicate strong development potential within the industry [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to provide broader development opportunities for the futures industry, particularly in supporting national strategies and enhancing market functions [3] - Continuous product launches and deepening international openness are anticipated to expand market depth and increase international influence, potentially attracting new capital [3] - Companies are advised to focus on cost control and operational efficiency while investing in financial technology and risk management to prepare for the industry's transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has received approval from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) for the sale of its 100% stake in Yingda Futures Co., Ltd. to China National Petroleum Corporation Capital Co., Ltd. for a price of RMB 1,129.2862 million [1][2]. Group 1 - The company plans to sell its entire stake in Yingda Futures for RMB 1,129.2862 million [1]. - The board of directors approved the sale during the ninth board meeting on December 26, 2025, and the announcement was disclosed on December 27, 2025 [1]. - The transaction is subject to approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), introducing uncertainty regarding the final implementation of the sale [2]. Group 2 - The approval from SASAC was documented in the official notice (Document No. 国资产权〔2026〕22号) [2]. - The company emphasizes the importance of cautious decision-making for investors due to the uncertainties surrounding the transaction [2]. - The announcement was officially made by the company's board on January 28, 2026 [3].