纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/9/23 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 2、9月新增浙石化两套60万吨苯乙烯装置检修，9月苯乙烯供应继续收紧。本周多次传出有苯乙烯装置降负或 提前检修的消息，有待核实。 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5600-6200 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7400 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - New - season supply pressure leads to a decline in futures prices, and many deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have lowered the purchase price of new grain; the overall demand for corn is stable, and the import pressure is limited; the supply - demand structure is turning loose, and the main task in the fourth quarter is to digest the pressure of new grain [1] - There are both positive and negative factors in the corn market. Positive factors include a slight rebound in spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai, low - volume imports in August, and successful corn procurement by the Chengdu branch of Sinograin. Negative factors are the new - season harvest causing supply pressure and weakened market sentiment due to price cuts by deep - processing enterprises [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Corn & Starch Futures Price Changes - From September 19 to September 22, 2025, most corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price declines. For example, corn 11 dropped from 2168 to 2158 (-0.46%), and corn starch 11 dropped from 2463 to 2447 (-0.65%). The wheat average price rose slightly by 0.04% [2] Positive Factors - Corn spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai have slightly rebounded [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, with less substitution pressure [3] - On the 22nd, the Chengdu branch of Sinograin conducted a corn bidding procurement of 4100 tons, all of which were successfully transacted, and there were no sales sessions [3] Negative Factors - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary supply surplus exerts pressure on prices [3] - Many deep - processing enterprises have lowered the purchase price of new grain, further weakening market sentiment [3] Spot Prices and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions (such as Jinzhou Port, Shekou Port, and Harbin) remained unchanged on the day, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract increased by 21. Corn starch spot prices in different regions (such as Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) also remained unchanged, and the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract increased by 42 [11] US Corn Prices and Import Profits - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract dropped by 0.59% to 421.75. The import profit of US Gulf is 306.56 yuan/ton, and that of US West is 448.76 yuan/ton [24]

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] Key Price and Inventory Data Coal Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1503.00, with a weekly increase of 102.00 and an annual increase of 7.36% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 1020.00, with a daily increase of 11.00, a weekly increase of 70.00, a monthly increase of 72.00, and an annual decrease of 10.53% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1350.00, with a monthly decrease of 30.00 and an annual decrease of 18.18% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1500.00, with a weekly increase of 80.00, a monthly increase of 30.00, and an annual decrease of 10.71% [2] Future Prices - The latest price of Futures 05 is 1323.00, with a daily increase of 10.50, a monthly increase of 79.00, and an annual increase of 4.46% [2] - The latest price of Futures 09 is 1389.50, with a daily increase of 9.00, a weekly increase of 18.00, a monthly increase of 326.50, and an annual increase of 6.23% [2] - The latest price of Futures 01 is 1229.00, with a daily increase of 13.00, a monthly increase of 30.50, and an annual decrease of 2.54% [2] Inventory Data - The total inventory is 3372.99, with a weekly increase of 56.61, a monthly decrease of 100.63, and an annual decrease of 10.92% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 232.79, with a weekly decrease of 21.73, a monthly decrease of 42.85, and an annual decrease of 15.02% [2] - The port inventory is 271.11, with a weekly decrease of 4.38, a monthly increase of 15.62, and an annual decrease of 34.53% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 793.73, with a weekly decrease of 2.03, a monthly decrease of 12.07, and an annual increase of 10.49% [2] - The coking coking coal inventory is 883.54, with a weekly decrease of 36.51, a monthly decrease of 93.34, and an annual increase of 4.31% [2] Other Data - The coking capacity utilization rate is 75.87, with a monthly increase of 1.45 and an annual increase of 9.88% [2] - The coking coke inventory is 86.03, with a monthly decrease of 0.14 and an annual decrease of 0.06% [2] - The 05 basis is -23.34, with a daily increase of 5.59, a weekly increase of 92.95, and an annual decrease of 217.42 [2] - The 09 basis is -89.84, with a daily increase of 7.09, a weekly increase of 73.95, and an annual decrease of 1.59 [2] - The 01 basis is 70.66, with a daily increase of 3.09, a weekly increase of 91.45, and an annual decrease of 0.65 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -66.50, with a daily increase of 1.50, a weekly decrease of 19.00, a monthly decrease of 247.50, and an annual increase of 0.60 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is 160.50, with a daily decrease of 4.00, a weekly increase of 17.50, a monthly increase of 296.00, and an annual increase of 2.41 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is -94.00, with a daily increase of 2.50, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 48.50, and an annual increase of 16.09 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures is applying for the issuance of overseas listed shares (H-shares) and plans to list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The company has received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding the filing for overseas issuance and listing [1] - The filing notice includes plans to issue no more than 124 million overseas listed ordinary shares [1] - The company must complete the overseas issuance and listing within 12 months, or it will need to update its filing materials [1] Group 2: Regulatory Information - The filing notice only confirms the filing information and does not guarantee investment value or returns [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the previous judgment that coking coal and coke should not be short - allocated among the black series. Although the market participants' expectations for the future have gradually improved and the willingness to hold goods has increased compared to the first half of the year, the high total supply pressure of steel and high inventory need time to digest, which will suppress the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices. A substantial favorable policy or an unexpected decline in coal mine开工率 is required to break through the previous high. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - allocation variety in the black series. The coke futures price is at a premium of 1 - 2 rounds compared to the dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt, and the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities under low basis, while arbitrageurs can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range forecast is 1200 - 1350, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 44.01%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 84.70% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range forecast is 1650 - 1850, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 33.04%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 71.11% [3]. 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Hedging for Coke**: When coke production recovers rapidly, the spot supply and demand tend to be loose, and coke enterprises are worried about the decline in future sales prices, they can short the J2601 contract of coke. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1780, 1830), 50% at (1830 - 1880), and 25% at (1200, 1250) [3]. - **Procurement Management for Coking Coal**: Due to the repeated macro - sentiment, the seasonal low开工率 of coking coal mines, and factors such as over - production inspection and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter disturbing the coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1150, 1200) and 50% at (1200, 1250) [3]. 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Inventory Changes**: On September 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 6931 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 7721 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 100 hands, coke remained unchanged, ferrosilicon decreased by 129 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 320 pieces. Compared with the previous week, the inventory of rebar increased by 9904 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 22213 tons, iron ore decreased by 200 hands, coking coal decreased by 400 hands, coke increased by 30 hands, ferrosilicon increased by 1163 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 764 pieces [4]. 3.4 Analysis of Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Downstream seasonal restocking before the National Day has alleviated the inventory pressure of coking coal mines, and the pithead has a strong price - support sentiment. The difficulty of the third - round price cut for coke has increased, and some coke enterprises have attempted to raise prices. After the second - round price cut was implemented, the spot profit of steel improved, and the high pig iron output provided rigid support for the short - term demand of coking coal and coke. "Anti - cut - throat competition" is the focus of market trading in the second half of the year, and the macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the trend of coking coal and coke futures. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year, which supports the overall valuation of commodities [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The social inventory pressure of finished steel products is still large, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected, which limits the rebound space of coking coal and coke. The average daily customs clearance at the port this week exceeded 1250 vehicles, and the coal shipment volume remained at a high level, resulting in a strong supply of imported coal [7]. 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The report provides detailed data on the coking coal and coke futures prices, including the cost of warehouse receipts, basis, inter - month spreads, coking profit, and various ratios (such as the ratio of coking coal to power coal, the ratio of iron ore to coke, etc.) on September 19, 2025, as well as their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The report presents the spot prices of coking coal and coke on September 19, 2025, including the ex - factory prices of domestic coking coal, the self - pick - up prices at ports, the CFR prices of imported coking coal, the ex - factory prices and export prices of coke, and the corresponding profit data (such as coking profit, import profit of coking coal, and export profit of coke), along with their daily and weekly changes [9][10].

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Group 1 - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector showed a downward trend, with the main contract for paraxylene (PX) opening at 6698.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of approximately 2.63% [1] - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to a tight supply-demand balance, with recent domestic maintenance units gradually restarting, leading to weaker market sentiment and lack of driving force from crude oil [1] - The supply side remains stable with no significant changes in domestic and international facilities, while the demand side shows a slight increase in PTA processing fees, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [2] Group 2 - Domestic PX production for the week was reported at 770.98 million tons, with a utilization rate of 84.63%, remaining unchanged from the previous week [2] - PTA production increased to 138.8 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.77 million tons, with a utilization rate of 74.95%, up by 4.30% [2] - Short-term PX prices are anticipated to follow fluctuations in crude oil prices, with resistance around 6850 CNY and support near 6500 CNY [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for rapeseed meal futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2530.00 yuan, with a current price of 2525.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.27% [1] - Domestic supply pressure is reduced due to a decrease in the arrival of rapeseed, while seasonal demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing [2][4] - The implementation of temporary anti-dumping measures on rapeseed by China further weakens long-term supply expectations [2] Group 2 - Short-term trends for rapeseed meal are expected to follow soybean meal prices, with limited arrivals of rapeseed impacting inventory levels [3][4] - The current low inventory levels at major domestic ports are attributed to a decrease in the arrival of Canadian rapeseed, although year-on-year levels remain high [4] - The ongoing negotiations between China and Canada regarding tariffs on rapeseed may influence future market conditions, but the impact is considered limited [4]

玉米&淀粉产业链日报 2025/09/19 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z002181） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾 】 玉米中短期供需结构转向宽松，短期新季逐步上市带来的供应放量压制价格表现，但在进口压力继续缺位 下，价格下跌空间或较为有限； 玉米需求端仍有韧性，替代压力有限； CBOT玉米低位震荡，消化丰产压力，在我国进口谷物锐减背景下，国际谷物价格对国内传导度有望下降； 连盘玉米期货短期消化新季上市压力，弱势震荡运行； 淀粉期货跟随玉米回落，后期成本下降预期及消费旺季到来下，价格或区间运行为主； 【利多解读】 【利空解读】 玉米&淀粉期货盘面价格 | | 2025-09-17 | 2025-09-18 | 今日涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米11 | 2161 | 2177 | 16 | 0.74% | | 玉米01 | 2155 | 2164 | 9 | 0.42% | | 玉米03 | 2166 | 2174 | 8 | 0.37% | | 玉米05 | 2224 | ...

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