Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious and industrial metal markets, particularly gold and silver, has led to increased interest in copper investments, despite concerns about the legitimacy and risks associated with copper bars as investment products [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have reached new highs, while domestic copper prices have surpassed 100,000 yuan per ton, leading to heightened investor interest in copper [2]. - In Shenzhen, the largest gold and jewelry distribution center in China, merchants have begun offering pure copper 999.9 investment bars, primarily in 1000-gram specifications, priced around 200 yuan each [2]. Group 2: Investment Risks - Analysts warn that the current "copper bar craze" is more of a speculative trend rather than a legitimate investment opportunity, with concerns about the lack of standardized recovery channels for copper bars [2][4]. - The comparison of copper bars to gold and silver investments is misleading, as copper is an industrial metal with different pricing dynamics, making the assumption of significant returns unrealistic [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Alternatives - Investors are advised to consider alternative methods for investing in copper, such as copper ETFs, stocks of leading copper mining companies, or direct investments in copper futures and options, which may offer more reliable returns [5]. - The investment landscape for copper is evolving, with personal investors encouraged to explore various avenues that align with their risk tolerance and investment goals [5]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Market sentiment regarding copper prices is mixed, with some analysts predicting short-term price corrections due to macroeconomic factors, while others anticipate long-term upward trends driven by demand from sectors like electric power and renewable energy [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026, citing structural tensions in the market, while also warning of potential price corrections in the latter half of the year as U.S. tariff policies become clearer [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. Affected by the improvement of China-Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation overall [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, the improvement of China-Canada trade relations has increased the long - term supply pressure, causing rapeseed oil to decline in oscillation and increasing short - term volatility [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 8902 yuan/ton, down 161 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was -21 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was -66 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract was 253,596 lots, down 16,032 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract was 1,013,517 lots, up 95,878 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were -20,757 lots, down 14,342 lots; for rapeseed meal were -272,749 lots, down 31,903 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,942 sheets, down 200 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 637.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,280 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,956.25 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,636.99 yuan/ton, up 46.97 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 4.04, up 0.09 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 787 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 820 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast for the year was 13.446 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - The total import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the total import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.24% (17.23% previously), down 0.6%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.23% (17.21% previously), down 0.6% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 16.38%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 13.06%, up 0.24% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 18.03%, up 2.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 14.77%, up 1.07% [2]. Industry News - On Friday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.8%, hitting a six - week high, due to a new trade agreement between Canada and China including a reduction in rapeseed tariffs [2]. - The USDA monthly supply - demand report showed that the U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season was 4.262 billion bushels, higher than last month's forecast and market expectations. The USDA also raised Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts, which was bearish for the market [2]. - The NOPA monthly crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest on record, which was positive for U.S. soybeans [2].

国债期货日报 2026/1/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.040 | -0.02% T主力成交量 | 52248 | -16762↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.785 | -0.02% TF主力成交量 | 43774 | -19513↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.400 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 23651 | -10268↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 110.920 | -0.22% TL主力成交量 | 78148 | -15821↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | +0.02↑ T03-TL03价差 | -2.88 | 0.22↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.06 | +0.01↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.26 | 0.00↑ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | -0.03 | +0.00↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.6 ...

中信建投期货18日研报称，本周（1月12日-1月18日）贵金属高位运行，各品种表现仍然分化，黄金稳 步上行，白银强势突破92美元后小幅回落，铂金波动显著整周收涨，钯金表现较弱震荡收跌，主要由于 前期各品种涨幅不同，各品种受消息面影响具有一定差异。 策略上，中信建投期货分析，特朗普宣称对欧洲八国加征关税，格陵兰岛争端加剧，地缘紧张或继续推 动贵金属行情宽幅波动。美联储新主席人选与鲍威尔调查等事件驱动"贬值交易"，刺激黄金货币属性， 其上升趋势较为稳定。但银铂钯的纽约现货集中情形已缓和，紧缺对行情驱动力削弱，贵金属分化局面 或持续，投资者仍需关注短期风险。 操作上，中信建投期货认为，黄金长线多单可继续持有，银铂钯暂观望。沪金2604参考区间1010-1060 元/克，沪银2604参考区间19000-23000元/千克，广铂2606参考区间570-630元/克，广钯2606参考区间 440-490元/克。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中新经纬 现货黄金站上4690美元/盎司，现货白银站上94美元/盎司，双双创历史新高。Wind显示，今年以来现货 白银价格已上涨约3 ...

21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 看点一：自营与资管业务如何隔离？交易单元特权时代是否终结？ 1月16日，中国证监会就《衍生品交易监督管理办法（试行）（征求意见稿）》面向社会公开征求意见。 新规直指衍生品业务的核心风险点，对经营机构的内部治理提出了更为细致的要求。 此次修订在2023年初版草案基础上，充分吸纳了行业反馈，旨在为快速发展的衍生品市场构建一套更为完善、可操作的监管规 则体系。 修订内容直指市场关切的核心领域，不仅明确了业务隔离、穿透监管等关键风险防控要求，也对产品创新与服务实体经济的边 界作出了更清晰的界定。 对于证券公司、期货公司、实体企业及各类专业投资者而言，这份新规意味着其日常的业务运营、风险管理和套期保值策略都 将迎来明确而具体的合规指引，一个更加规范、透明的衍生品市场发展新阶段即将开启。 新规实施后，这种"分仓"操作将暴露在统一的监控之下。监管层能够识别出一个交易群体背后的真实风险总量，从而更有效地 防范市场操纵和过度投机。这要求相关交易者必须重新评估其多市场组合的合规性，风控模型也需要相应升级，将场内外衍生 品头寸进行一体化管理。 看点三：严控"复杂衍生品"，企业套保如何合规避险？ 新规 ...

期权工具具有成本相对较低、策略灵活的特点，为产业企业提供了更加多样的避险选择。多家参与首日 交易的企业对此表示认可。 中铝国际贸易集团有限公司作为贸易型企业，此前已在焦煤期货上积累一定经验，并已经以期货价格为 基础与上游焦煤生产企业签订采购合同。该公司副总经理赵鹏飞表示，焦煤期权上市首日，公司即开展 了焦煤期权交易，以对冲现货价格波动风险。"作为拥有大商所焦煤期货集团交割库的大型贸易商，我 们后续计划利用'交割库+期权保价'的方式开展焦煤现货采购，服务下游焦化厂及钢厂进行风险管理， 助力期货、期权成为连接金融与实体的纽带。" 物产中大集团有限公司是我国焦煤行业的重要服务商。该公司在首日交易中采取了卖出不同行权价格看 涨与看跌期权的"双卖策略"。公司相关业务负责人彭书科认为，焦煤期权的上市为企业提供了更多时间 价值保值与结构化风险管理机会。近年来焦煤价格波动较大，企业可借助宽跨式期权策略锁定采购成 本，通过双卖策略提前锁定远期售价并降低现货库存成本。 彭书科进一步表示"焦煤期权为持有期货或现货的企业提供了多维度的风险管理方案，尤其是在市场方 向不明、波动加剧时更具优势。期权的非线性损益特征可支持更精准、多元的对 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周五，有色金属普遍调整，铜日内最大跌幅近2%。宏观角度来看，截至1月10日当周美国首申失业金人 数降至19.8万人，显著低于市场预期21.5万人和前值20.8万人，表明劳动力市场韧性依然突出。美国堪 萨斯城联储主席表示目前并没有降息的理由，如果降息，可能会损害抑制通胀的进展，而且还对劳动力 市场无益。目前美联储1月降息概率下调至5%附近，降息预期走弱一定程度上抑制了铜的强势格局。此 外，特朗普表示暂时不对铜等关键矿产征收关税，此前铜价中的风险溢价被部分挤出，短期价格上行驱 动减弱。 基本面来看，美伊局势以及贵金属高位波动风险有所外溢，铜价高位展现出不稳定性，从国内来看沪铜 和国际铜仓单不断注册，也显示出国内套保资金的压力，佐证当前淡季下国内基本面转弱迹象。若供给 端无新增减量，铜在目前高位存在调整预期。不过，铜精矿方面，国内TC报价仍处在历史低位，维系 着铜精矿紧张情绪，成为基本面强支撑因素，消息面智利Mantoverde铜矿事件谈判无果，罢工将持续， 加剧市场对供应紧张担忧情绪。长期供应紧张问题持续存在，需审慎对待近期行情波动。 从业资格：F ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in nickel prices due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, with the main contract for nickel futures reported at 144,410.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.42% increase [1] Group 2 - On the macro level, the article notes a significant trend of de-globalization and frequent geopolitical conflicts, leading to a general increase in "strategic reserve" metals [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry specifics, Indonesia has drastically reduced its nickel ore production target for 2026 by approximately 34%, and 50 nickel mines are facing potential fines for illegal land use [1] Group 4 - Regarding demand, the announcement from two departments to gradually lower and eliminate the VAT refund for battery product exports is expected to positively impact nickel demand in the new energy sector [1] Group 5 - Looking ahead, the article indicates that strong policy expectations from Indonesia are driving prices upward, with a projected quota of 260 million tons for 2026 against an estimated demand of over 320 million tons, suggesting a strong expectation of overall nickel supply shortage [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance for the asphalt industry. It recommends going long on the BU main contract on dips, and taking long positions on the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium in the crude oil market is strengthening, providing solid support to the cost side of asphalt. Although the rigid demand for asphalt is weak, supply is also restricted, leading to tight local asphalt spot circulation. The BU futures price has shifted to a sideways trend after pricing in the expected tightening of Venezuelan oil supply. With the escalation of the situation in South America and rising benchmark oil prices due to the Iran situation, the cost - side support for asphalt remains [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On January 14, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,168 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.37% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 203,327 lots, down 4,581 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 199,146 lots, down 81,301 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,040 - 3,240 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,180 - 3,230 yuan/ton in East China. Spot prices in North China and Shandong have increased, while those in other regions have remained stable [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish. Go long on the BU main contract on dips, and early bottom - fishing long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [2]. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided [2]. - **Futures - spot**: No strategy provided [2]. - **Options**: No strategy provided [2].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals like gold and silver continue to perform well into 2026, reaching new highs, prompting the CME to adjust margin requirements to curb speculative trading [2][4][12]. Margin Adjustments - CME has changed the margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from fixed amounts to a percentage of the contract's nominal value, effective January 13 [2][12]. - For gold, the initial margin requirement is now set at 5%, resulting in a margin of $23,000 for a standard contract, slightly lower than the previous fixed amount of $24,000 [2][12]. - For silver, the margin requirement has increased to 9%, leading to an initial margin of $38,700 for a standard contract, significantly higher than the previous fixed amount of $32,500 [4][14]. Market Reactions - Despite the margin adjustments, silver prices have surpassed $88, and gold remains above $4,600, indicating strong market demand [4][14]. - Historical trends suggest that frequent margin adjustments by exchanges may signal the nearing end of a bullish phase in the market [4][14]. Bitcoin Developments - Bitcoin has surpassed $95,000, marking a two-month high, with significant purchases by Strategy, which acquired 13,627 bitcoins valued at approximately $1.25 billion [4][14]. - This acquisition has led to a rise in the company's total bitcoin holdings, estimated to exceed $60 billion, positively impacting its stock price [4][14]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. December CPI remained stable at 2.7%, with core CPI at 2.6%, aligning with expectations and limiting the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts [5][15]. - Market expectations indicate a 97% probability that the Fed will maintain current rates in January, supporting the dollar's strength [5][15].