研究员：樊俊豪/石狄/刘思奇 机构：华泰证券 风险提示：宏观消费需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧，新业务发展不及预期。 近期泡泡玛特市场预期受短期高频追踪数据影响明显，并导致对IP 热度、业绩成长持续性的担忧有所 升温。我们追踪的数据显示，公司Q4 国内、海外业绩环比趋势呈现高韧性，在度过Labubu 3.0 销售高 峰后，IP 矩阵的力量对销售增长形成坚实支撑。我们梳理了市场观点的三个潜在预期差：高频数据的 综合判断、新锐IP 成长性、内容等IP 生态布局的潜力。公司1 月19 日以2.51 亿港元回购140 万股股 份，每股回购价177.7-181.2 港元，彰显对成长前景的信心。我们认为公司业绩增长的可持续性以及中 长期空间受低估，在当前市场分歧阶段估值具备吸引力，维持"买入"评级，继续重点推荐。 维度一：Q4 海外市场表现或好于市场悲观预期 Q4 市场追踪部分三方数据及二手价格，导致对海外尤其北美表现担忧。我们预计Q4 海外环比表现好于 市场悲观预期。1）北美：我们跟踪Tik Tok Q4销售额环降约10%。但Q3 因门店缺货，线上占比或高达 60-70%，Q4 门店货品充足，线下收入预计明显好于Q3，全渠 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant investment activities of the gaming giant miHoYo, highlighting its strategic investments in various sectors, particularly in AI and technology, as a means to diversify and secure future growth amidst uncertainties in its core gaming business [4][16]. Investment Strategy - miHoYo has made over 30 disclosed investments across various fields, including AI, embodied intelligence, and commercial aerospace, indicating a broad interest in future technologies [4][6]. - The company has invested in projects like MiniMax, Suplay, and Soul, which are either approaching IPO or have already gone public, showcasing its commitment to nurturing potential high-growth ventures [4][6][16]. Investment Portfolio - miHoYo's investment portfolio includes significant stakes in Suplay (11.86%) and Soul (5.47%), both of which are in the gaming and social media sectors [6][8]. - The company has also invested in cutting-edge fields such as controlled nuclear fusion and brain-computer interfaces, reflecting its ambition to be at the forefront of technological advancements [7][14]. Market Trends and Insights - The article notes that miHoYo's investments are driven by the growing demand for virtual companionship and identity recognition among younger generations, suggesting a strategic alignment with market trends [13][14]. - The decline in revenue from its flagship game "Genshin Impact" has prompted miHoYo to seek new revenue streams through investments, indicating a proactive approach to mitigate risks associated with its core business [17][18]. Future Outlook - miHoYo's aggressive investment strategy is seen as both a proactive and reactive measure to address uncertainties in its gaming revenue, with the potential for these investments to yield significant returns in the future [16][18]. - The company’s focus on technology investments is expected to enhance its operational efficiency and expand its existing ecosystem, thereby creating new revenue opportunities [15][18].

潮玩是2025年外贸出口新亮点。为保护潮玩产业健康发展，厦门海关组织开展"潮玩产业知识产权保护 专项行动"，打造集中智能审图平台，建立玩偶等侵权高风险商品机检图像库，共查获侵权潮玩产品67 批次，扣留侵权嫌疑货物19.5万件。 厦门海关还进一步释放知识产权备案、预确认、"白名单"等制度红利，帮助企业稳订单、拓市场。2025 年新增备案知识产权1270项。 林丽红表示，2026年厦门海关将在进出口环节继续保持打击侵权违法行为的高压态势，全面提升口岸打 击侵权效能。同时，积极营造更优更好口岸营商环境，全力服务中国品牌走出国门。(完) 中新社厦门1月22日电 (林永传 沈瑀彤)厦门海关22日消息，2025年，厦门海关查获涉嫌侵权货物1180批 次、扣留侵权嫌疑货物949万件，扣留侵权货物数量再创历史新高。 厦门海关综合处知识产权科科长林丽红介绍，2025年厦门海关针对侵权多发、易发领域，开展"跨境电 商知识产权保护专项行动"，有效整治"蚂蚁搬家"式侵权行为，跨境电商渠道查获进出境侵权商品1011 批次。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Pop Mart (09992) maintains a "buy" rating due to its long-term IP creation and operation mechanism being a core competitive advantage, with the company entering a layout period [1] - The company has a well-established domestic IP tier system and brand recognition, with expected continued growth overseas driven by store openings; expanding product categories, IPs, and business formats remain key growth drivers [1] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 134 billion, 170 billion, and 212 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 294%, 27%, and 25%, with corresponding current P/E ratios of 17.7, 14.0, and 11.2X [1] Group 2 - The domestic market is expected to continue outperforming expectations, driven by brand awareness, healthy IP structure, and a well-developed membership system; the core plush products remain in short supply since the large restock in Q4 2025 [2] - The sales on Douyin have maintained a high growth rate of 239% year-on-year, with the plush toy "Little Horse" becoming the top seller, indicating strong platform capabilities and successful new product launches [2] - New business formats such as jewelry, desserts, and amusement parks are expected to contribute additional growth, solidifying the basic market in China [2] Group 3 - In North America, despite weak consumer spending and a period of adjustment, Q4 performance exceeded previous expectations; new markets in the Middle East and South America are anticipated to follow suit with accelerated store openings [3] - The rapid expansion of new market stores is expected in 2026, supported by a large population base, consumer purchasing power, and potential for store openings, continuing the trend seen in China and Southeast Asia [3]

Group 1 - The core competitive advantage of the company lies in its long-term IP creation and operation mechanism, which has entered a layout phase [1] - The company has a well-established domestic IP tier system and brand recognition, with expected growth in overseas markets driven by store openings [1] - The company is projected to expand its product categories, IPs, and business formats as key growth drivers in the medium term [1] Group 2 - The Chinese market is expected to continue outperforming expectations, supported by brand awareness, a healthy IP structure, and a well-developed membership system [2] - The retail performance of large stores is steadily improving, with core plush products experiencing stock shortages since Q4 2025 [2] - New business formats such as jewelry, desserts, and amusement parks are anticipated to contribute additional growth in the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - North America is showing better-than-expected performance despite weaker consumer spending and a period of product gaps [3] - Emerging markets in the Middle East and South America are expected to exceed expectations, with rapid expansion of new stores planned for 2026 [3] - The large population base and consumer spending potential in these regions are likely to sustain growth trends similar to those seen in China and Southeast Asia [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising popularity of small and aesthetically pleasing accessories, referred to as "bag hangers," among consumers in Weifang [1] - Various types of bag hangers, including IP toys and cultural creative pendants, are prominently displayed in shopping malls, supermarkets, and cultural venues, indicating a trend towards colorful and diverse designs [1] - Sales of bag hangers are thriving not primarily due to practicality but are more closely associated with the "self-pleasing" consumerism, enhancing the vibrancy of the market with these small "joy factors" [7] Group 2 - A specific store in Weifang reported high customer traffic, especially on weekends, with a new "star person" bag hanger generating significant interest even before its official release [5] - A plush bag hanger inspired by the Weifang elephant has become a favorite among young consumers, with one customer expressing enthusiasm for its quality and design, leading to multiple purchases [5] - The trend reflects a shift in consumer behavior where decorative items are valued for their aesthetic appeal and emotional connection rather than just their functional use [7]

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）近年来，中式麻辣火锅、潮玩产品，在泰国掀起消费热潮。从舌尖上的 麻辣鲜香，到潮玩衍生出的情绪共鸣，中国消费文化正凭借多元载体，赢得了越来越多泰国年轻消费者 的青睐。 泰国经济学家 朱章海：中国美食"软实力"日益强大，推动了一种情感化消费的新现象。这种趋势尤其 体现在帮助年轻人在日常生活中找到快乐与情感慰藉。 中式麻辣火锅从2023年开始在泰国迎来爆发式增长，根据行业平台发布的数据，包括麻辣火锅在内的麻 辣食品、外卖订单量近两年的年增长率都超过40%。泰国当地媒体评价说，中式麻辣火锅凭借浓郁的红 油汤底和热闹的用餐氛围，迅速吸引了大量食客。 泰国某中式火锅连锁店负责人 闻智：现在在泰国，"麻辣"已经成为泰国民众对中式火锅的代名词。我 们新建门店的开店数量逐年往上递增，从一开始每年销售一两千万泰铢（约合220万到440万元人民 币），到现在每年十几亿泰铢（约合两亿多元人民币）的规模。 随着多家中国连锁火锅品牌相继进入泰国市场，中式火锅文化持续升温，尤其受到追求新鲜口味和消费 体验的年轻群体青睐。 不仅是中式火锅，时下流行的潮玩产品也强势进军泰国市场，并迅速走红。2024年的相关报告显示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends, particularly focusing on the volatility of stocks related to AI applications and the implications for investors. It emphasizes the importance of cautious investment strategies amidst market fluctuations. Group 1: Market Trends - The stock "Leo Holdings" experienced a significant surge, with its price increasing over 100% in just ten trading days, and a single-day trading volume exceeding 250 billion, which is nearly half of its total market capitalization of around 548 billion [2][4]. - Following a three-day suspension, Leo Holdings resumed trading and immediately hit the daily limit down, with sell orders exceeding 100 billion, indicating a strong reaction from investors who had previously bought in during the price surge [4]. - Another stock, "Guosheng Technology," saw a cumulative increase of over 650% since last September but has faced five consecutive limit downs recently, highlighting the risks associated with speculative trading in the current market environment [4][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio and avoid chasing hot stocks, as the likelihood of incurring losses increases significantly in a volatile market [7]. - The article stresses the importance of understanding investments and suggests that most market participants will ultimately earn returns that align with their level of knowledge [7]. - It is recommended to focus on quality equity investments for the long term while remaining cautious and avoiding frequent trading to minimize costs [7]. Group 3: Financing and ETF Trends - There has been a notable net sell-off in margin financing, exceeding 100 billion over two consecutive days, indicating a shift in market sentiment [9]. - Broad-based ETFs have also seen significant selling, with over 650 billion sold recently, reflecting a broader trend of investors pulling back from the market [11]. - The article highlights the increased trading volumes in certain ETFs, particularly those representing mid-cap stocks, suggesting a potential shift in investor focus [11]. Group 4: Commodity Trends - Gold prices continue to reach historical highs, with a recent increase of over 2% in a single day, driven by geopolitical tensions and a decline in risk assets [13][14]. - The performance of gold-related stocks has been strong, with a notable ETF rising over 5.7%, indicating a growing interest in safe-haven assets amidst market uncertainty [16]. - The article provides specific data on the performance of gold and copper prices, showing significant increases of 138% and 50%, respectively, since early 2024 [16].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) announced a share buyback plan totaling HKD 96.49 million to repurchase 500,000 shares at a price range of HKD 191.1 to 194.9 per share [1] Group 1 - On January 19, Pop Mart previously announced a buyback plan of HKD 251 million to repurchase 1.4 million shares, which led to a more than 10% increase in stock price the following day [1] - This week, Pop Mart's total buyback amount has reached nearly HKD 350 million [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has announced a share buyback plan, spending HKD 251 million to repurchase 1.4 million shares at a price range of HKD 177.7 to 181.2 per share [1] - The domestic market is experiencing upward momentum, with a large and sticky user base, and a diversified IP matrix maintaining its popularity [2] - The company is actively adjusting its supply and production to stabilize the second-hand market prices, which is beneficial for long-term brand value and user base expansion [2] - The overseas market presents significant potential, with many global markets still in the early stages of development and a strong certainty for future channel expansion [2] - The company is focusing on resolving supply chain and logistics issues before prioritizing IP product layout for better long-term overseas development [2] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be CNY 135.1 billion, CNY 179.0 billion, and CNY 216.1 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.0X, 13.6X, and 11.3X [3] - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow significantly, with expected revenues of CNY 38.891 billion in 2025, CNY 50.835 billion in 2026, and CNY 61.142 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 198%, 31%, and 20% respectively [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from CNY 10.07 in 2025 to CNY 16.11 in 2027 [5] Key Financial Metrics - The company's operating income is expected to reach CNY 13,038 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 107% [5] - The gross margin is projected to be 66.79% in 2024, increasing to 78.24% by 2027 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 29.26% in 2024, decreasing to 41.85% by 2027 [8]