Group 1: A-Share Market Overview - A-share earnings show marginal improvement with accelerated revenue growth in Q3 2025 [4] - DuPont analysis indicates that profitability, operational efficiency, and financial leverage are all under pressure [4] - The inventory cycle is stabilizing at the bottom, with weakened capacity utilization and low expansion indicators [4] - Overall cash flow is recovering, although operational performance is weakening, investment is declining, and financing is increasing [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The coal industry showed a 9.5% increase in January and a 15.2% increase in March, with a 2.4% increase over the year [2] - The banking sector experienced a 5.9% increase in January but a 4.1% decrease in March, with a 13.7% increase over the year [2] - The steel industry had a 3.7% increase in January, a 9.1% increase in March, and a significant 23.7% increase over the year [2] - The automotive sector saw a decline of 3.6% in January, but a 24.3% increase over the year [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Rongtai Co., Ltd. focuses on the automotive aluminum die-casting sector and is expanding into robotics, with major clients including Bosch and Thyssenkrupp [9][10] - The company aims for a revenue growth of over 20% year-on-year or a net profit growth of over 15% by 2025 [9] - SanKe Tree reported a 2.69% year-on-year revenue increase to 93.92 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant 81.22% increase in net profit [15][16] - TSMC's Q3 2025 revenue reached $33.1 billion, a 40.8% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 59.5% [18][19] - Zhongji Xuchuang achieved a 56.8% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, with a net profit growth of 125% [21][22] - Muyuan Foods reported a 27% increase in pig sales in the first three quarters of 2025, with a steady decline in production costs [23] - Yaxiang Integrated reported a 40% increase in Q3 2025 performance, driven by improved gross margins and overseas orders [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Considering planned出栏量, large pigs, piglets, and the inventory of breeding sows, pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly until June next year and decline slightly in July. Year-on-year growth in pig出栏量 started in May this year and will continue until July next year. In November, the出栏量 of the breeding side may continue to increase, and the出栏 weight will increase seasonally. The concentrated entry of secondary fattening in October, combined with the release of production capacity, may create dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival [10]. - Demand side: In November, as the weather cools, the demand for curing and enema will increase slightly, and consumer demand will continue to rise. However, the overall increase will be limited. The demand for secondary fattening may decline, weakening the support for prices [10]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate as supply and demand both increase. Futures prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, mainly due to the potential dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival, but the impact of curing and enema on demand needs to be monitored [10]. - Strategies: Futures investors are advised to hold short positions or short on rallies with stop-loss. Breeding enterprises are advised to hold hedging short positions [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - Spot market: In October, the average national pig price first declined and then rose, showing a "V" shape, with the monthly average price moving downward. The出栏量 increased, and secondary fattening effectively buffered the supply pressure. The average national pig出栏 price in October was 11.6 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 1.7 yuan/kg or 12.78%. The expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising decreased, and the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [12]. - Futures market: In October, the main futures contract 2601 fluctuated downward, closing at 11,815 yuan/ton on the 31st, a month - on - month decrease of 540 yuan/ton or 4.37%, with a basis of 235 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Long - term Supply: Breeding Sow Inventory - Price: In October, the average market price of 50KG binary sows was 1551 yuan/head, a slight decrease of 42 yuan/head from the previous month [19]. - Inventory: According to official data, as of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 4.035 billion heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. According to Yongyi data, as of September, the sample farm's breeding sow inventory was 1.1458 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% and a year - on - year increase of 4.71%. Theoretically, pig出栏量 is expected to show certain trends from this year to next year [20][21]. 3.2.2 Medium - term Supply: Piglet Inventory - Price: In October, the average market price of 15KG piglets was 267 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 29.33% [35]. - Inventory: As of September, the sample enterprise's piglet inventory was 2.4159 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.42% and a year - on - year increase of 11.36%. Theoretically, pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly from October this year to March next year [35]. 3.2.3 Short - term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening - Large pig inventory: As of September, the sample enterprise's large pig inventory was 1.343 million heads, with a month - on - month increase of 1.77%. Theoretically, pig出栏量 in October and November will increase month - on - month [36]. - Hogging and secondary fattening: In September, the proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased. In October, the proportion of secondary fattening sales increased, and the spread between fat and standard pigs widened, leading to increased reluctance to sell [37][38]. 3.2.4 Current Supply: Commercial Pig出栏量 and出栏 Weight -出栏量: In October 2025, the actual出栏量 of the sample was 27.56 million heads, with a completion rate of 105.7%. The planned出栏量 in November decreased by 3.27% compared to the actual出栏量 in October. From January to September 2025, the total pig出栏量 was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [42]. -出栏 weight: In October, the average出栏 weight was 128.1 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. In November, the出栏 weight is expected to rise. The proportion of small - weight pigs remained stable, and the proportion of large - weight pigs decreased [43]. 3.2.5 Import Supply: Pork Imports In September, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the total pork imports were 790,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.24% [49]. 3.2.6 Demand - Secondary fattening: In October, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening increased in the middle and late months. In November, the demand for secondary fattening may decline as the utilization rate of pens reaches a high level [52]. - Slaughter: As of the end of October, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 35.31%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.59 percentage points. In November, the operating rate is expected to increase slightly [56]. - Terminal demand: In October, consumer demand increased as the weather cooled. In November, consumer demand is expected to continue to rise slightly, but the overall increase will be limited [57]. 3.2.7 Supply - Demand Situation In October, the fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughter enterprises decreased slightly, and the frozen - meat storage rate increased. In November, supply and demand are expected to increase, and the fresh - meat sales rate may fluctuate steadily, while the frozen - meat storage rate will be adjusted narrowly [65][67]. 3.3 Later Outlook - Supply side: Pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly until June next year and decline slightly in July. In November, the出栏量 of the breeding side may increase, and the出栏 weight will increase seasonally. The concentrated entry of secondary fattening in October may create dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival [69]. - Demand side: In November, consumer demand is expected to increase slightly as the weather cools, but the overall increase will be limited. The demand for secondary fattening may decline, weakening the support for prices [69]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate, and futures prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, mainly due to the potential dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival, but the impact of curing and enema on demand needs to be monitored [69][70]. - Strategies: Futures investors are advised to hold short positions or short on rallies with stop - loss. Breeding enterprises are advised to hold hedging short positions [70].

Group 1: Market Overview - In October 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.10%[7] - The average return of the stock portfolio in October was 0.24%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which remained flat[7] - The A-share market saw significant style rotation, with large-cap value indices showing defensive characteristics[7] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Huaxin Cement (600801) closed at 21.58 CNY, with a monthly increase of 16.65%[8] - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) closed at 35.70 CNY, with a projected EPS of 1.47 CNY[16] - Muyuan Foods (002714) closed at 50.30 CNY, with a projected EPS of 3.65 CNY[20] - CATL (300750) closed at 388.77 CNY, with a projected EPS of 14.97 CNY[24] - Guodian NARI (600406) closed at 24.23 CNY, with a projected EPS of 1.05 CNY[28] - SANY Heavy Industry (600031) closed at 22.14 CNY, with a projected EPS of 1.02 CNY[32] - Inovance Technology (300124) closed at 77.01 CNY, with a projected EPS of 2.04 CNY[36] - Yutong Bus (600066) closed at 32.33 CNY, with a projected EPS of 2.17 CNY[40] - Changdian Technology (600584) closed at 40.02 CNY, with a projected EPS of 1.00 CNY[44] Group 3: Economic and Policy Insights - The U.S. PMI data indicates resilient growth momentum, while employment figures remain weak[7] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has been confirmed, but internal divisions within the FOMC raise questions about future easing paths[7] - The Chinese economy shows signs of resilience in production, with exports exceeding expectations despite a slowdown in demand[7]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for the third quarter dropped by over 55%, with a nearly 60% decline in net profit after excluding non-recurring items, while revenue only decreased by 1.89% [2] - The food segment's profit fell by 36% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to increased sales expenses from promotional efforts for high-margin products [2][3] Group 2: Raw Material and Inventory Management - Recent trends show that the procurement price of wheat has been fluctuating upwards; the company has adopted a strategy to maximize receivables during the summer harvest, ensuring current inventory meets production needs [3] - The company has reported an increase in inventory asset impairment losses, contributing to the decline in profits [3] Group 3: Investment and Market Expansion - The company is focusing on upstream and downstream industries closely related to its main business for potential investments [3] - Plans for market expansion in 2025 include targeting wholesale markets, catering, enterprises, and snack retail channels, in addition to strengthening existing advantageous channels [3] Group 4: Challenges and Strategic Responses - The main challenge faced by the food business is reversing the trend of declining sales amid decreasing market demand; the pig farming business is challenged by significant price fluctuations [3][4] - The company aims to enhance operational management and improve performance through various strategies, including cash dividends, share buybacks, and better investor relations management [4] Group 5: Cost Management in Pig Farming - The overall cost of pig farming is controlled below 13 CNY/kg, with top-performing farms achieving costs below 11 CNY/kg; measures to reduce costs include improving health management, optimizing feed formulas, and investing in research and development [4] - The company emphasizes a robust biosecurity system to mitigate risks associated with diseases like African swine fever, employing strict measures in farm management [4]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Wen's Foodstuffs Group in Q3 reflects significant challenges in the pig farming industry, with notable declines in both revenue and net profit, indicating ongoing pressures from market conditions and cyclical fluctuations [1][2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue for Wen's Foodstuffs Group was 25.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.76%, primarily due to falling pig prices [1][2]. - Net profit for Q3 was 1.781 billion yuan, down 65.02%, with the adjusted net profit at 1.633 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 68.07% [1][2]. - Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters was 75.788 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year, while cumulative net profit was 5.256 billion yuan, down 18.29% [1][2]. Industry Context - The pig farming industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, with Wen's Foodstuffs Group's financial results indicating that the company has not fully escaped the impacts of the "pig cycle" [2][3]. - Historical data shows a strong correlation between Wen's profitability and pig prices, with profits soaring during high price periods and declining during low price phases [3]. - Current data indicates that the breeding sow inventory remains high, suggesting continued ample supply of pigs and limited potential for significant price increases in the near future [3]. Market Conditions - National pig prices showed a fluctuating upward trend in Q3 but remained lower than the previous year, corroborating Wen's report of decreased meat pig sales prices [4]. - As of October 20, 2025, the price of external three yuan pigs was 11.18 yuan/kg, down 35.41% year-on-year, which has pressured many farming enterprises below their cost lines [4]. - Despite an increase in sales volume to 9.7358 million pigs in Q3, the significant drop in price led to a substantial compression of overall gross margins [4]. Strategic Developments - Wen's Foodstuffs Group is focusing on enhancing breeding efficiency, cost control, and disease prevention, which, while increasing short-term expenditures, are expected to strengthen the company's long-term resilience and sustainability [5]. - The company’s performance is representative of broader industry challenges, including sluggish revenue growth, narrowing profit margins, and increasing financial pressures faced by many listed pig farming companies [5]. - The industry is transitioning from a fragmented and small-scale model to a more concentrated and intensive one, with larger enterprises like Wen's Foodstuffs Group gaining market share and leading the direction of industry transformation [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the given documents. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, after a sharp decline, the pig price rebounded. However, farmers' reluctance to sell due to pressure on holding pigs still causes concerns before the Spring Festival. The group enterprises' volume reduction and price support, combined with the second - fattening support, have relieved the near - end pressure. But with a high basic inventory this year, there are still great concerns about the year - end pig price. [1][3] - The current open interest of the live hog index has reached a record high of 320,000 lots, with nearly 10 billion yuan of settled funds. The market is highly divided. The forward curve shows a contango structure, and the near - end futures price has a large discount to the spot price. The futures price reflects a certain pessimistic expectation of the year - end slaughter pressure. Given that the absolute price has fallen below the cash cost of some farmers, short - selling should be cautious. [3] - The reduction of live hog production capacity mainly occurs in two stages: first, reducing the slaughter weight, which was initially achieved in October this year mainly by reducing pressure on holding pigs and shortening the breeding time; second, reducing the capacity of breeding sows, which is driven by the passive elimination of breeding sows by farmers when the piglet slaughter incurs significant losses. [3] - Looking forward to the end of 2025, the feed sector lacks strong positive factors, and the continuously decreasing live hog breeding cost leads to a slow reduction of production capacity. The cyclical pressure of the sector is an important factor dragging down the pig price. The current industry is in the first stage of weight reduction, and there is still a long way to go before entering the second stage of reducing the inventory of breeding sows. [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 2025 October and November Review and Outlook - In the context of capacity reduction in October 2025, the industry as a whole started to reduce the slaughter weight. The hog - grain ratio has fallen below 5:1, and the piglet price has dropped to around 175 yuan per head. The rapid deterioration of breeding profits will drive the industry into the capacity reduction stage. [3][5] - The expected increase in feed imports after the smooth progress of the new round of Sino - US negotiations in October has limited impact on the near - end pig price. The current group enterprises still have room to reduce the breeding cost, but the average industry cost is still around 13 yuan per kilogram. [4] 2025 Fourth - Quarter Outlook - The futures and spot price trends are expected to remain at the bottom due to the lack of strong positive factors on the supply side. The 2601 contract is recommended to be observed, and it is advisable to buy the 2607 contract on dips below 12,000 points in the medium term. For options, a covered call strategy combination can be held. [5] 2025 October Live Hog Futures and Spot Price Review - In October 2025, the agricultural product index fell to a new low for the year, with the feed and breeding industry chain leading the decline. The live hog spot price broke through the support level and hit a new low for the same period in recent years, and the piglet price accelerated its decline. [8][15][18] - The feed price fluctuated and declined overall in October 2025. The low downstream frozen product inventory provided some support for the white - strip price, while the low meat - poultry price dragged down the pig price. [21][24][30] - From August to October in the third quarter of this year, the cumulative decline of the pig price exceeded 18%. [39] Live Hog Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The inventory of breeding sows is currently in the green and reasonable range, with a cumulative decline of about 1% compared to July 2025. The discount rate of culled sows increased in October, and the production efficiency per sow has improved. [44][45][46] - The slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, but the growth rate may not be large. [52] Listed Pig Enterprises - In the first half of 2025, the overall profitability of leading companies expanded, but some turned to losses in the third quarter. [58] Near - End Supply - Demand Fundamentals - In October, the slaughter volume increased significantly, and the slaughter weight decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level year - on - year. The slaughter weight in the fourth quarter is the main factor affecting the spot price. [62][64][67] - The current monthly average profitability is at the historical median. The profit of purchasing piglets returned to near the break - even point in July, and the fattening loss continued to widen from August to October. [75] October Live Hog Futures Price Situation - In October, the live hog futures price reached a record low with increasing open interest. The live hog index hit a new low, and the open interest increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. [77][78] - The futures - to - feed price ratio of live hogs on the market is close to the historical low level. The 2603 and 2605 contracts have fallen below the breeding cost. The near - month contracts lack confidence in the spot price, and the 2511 contract finally entered the delivery month with a large discount. [84][86][89]

Group 1: Market Strategy and Economic Outlook - The current market is transitioning from a "technology bull" to a "wealth bull," indicating a favorable time to invest in cyclical sectors [6][10] - The third quarter of 2025 shows a recovery in profitability, with A-share cumulative profit growth expected to reach 11% in 2026, marking a shift to an earnings-driven bull market [14] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a need for GDP growth of at least 4.1% annually, indicating a supportive environment for cyclical industries [7] Group 2: Industry Performance Insights - The computer industry experienced a revenue increase of 10.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit rising by 47.77% [19] - The materials and manufacturing sectors showed a significant improvement in free cash flow, with a year-on-year increase of 1,100 million yuan in the third quarter [16] - The TMT sector's capital expenditure (CAPEX) expansion is impacting cash flow, with a notable decrease in free cash flow by 928 million yuan in the third quarter [15] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Huada Jiutian reported a revenue of 8.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant decline in net profit due to reduced government subsidies [46][47] - Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 41.60 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 18.51%, driven by a stable CDMO business [50][51] - New Dairy's revenue for the first three quarters reached 84.34 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 31.48%, indicating strong operational performance [53][54]

Core Viewpoint - Tian Nong Group has submitted its prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the ninth listed company in Qingyuan, leveraging its strong position in the Qingyuan chicken market and a comprehensive industry chain [1][2]. Company Overview - Established in 2003, Tian Nong Group has evolved from a regional poultry farming enterprise to one of China's leading providers of high-quality meat and meat products [1]. - The company operates a vertically integrated industry chain covering breeding, ecological farming, feed production, slaughtering, food processing, and brand marketing [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company will have 4 feed mills, 16 chicken farms, 52 pig farms, and 1 slaughterhouse, indicating a well-established infrastructure [1]. Market Position - According to a Frost & Sullivan report, Tian Nong Group holds a 59.3% market share in the Qingyuan chicken market, surpassing all competitors combined, and ranks second among yellow feathered chicken providers in Guangdong Province [2]. - In the pig farming sector, the company is projected to rank eighth in revenue in Southwest China for 2024, with its per-head gross profit ranking second among large-scale breeding enterprises nationwide [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue figures for Tian Nong Group from 2022 to 2024 are as follows: 3.952 billion yuan in 2022, 3.596 billion yuan in 2023, and 4.776 billion yuan in 2024, with a revenue of 2.221 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year growth [2]. - The net profit trajectory shows a profit of 341 million yuan in 2022, a loss of 669 million yuan in 2023 due to industry cycle fluctuations, a rebound to a profit of 890 million yuan in 2024, and a net profit of 127 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit margin of 5.7% [2]. Social Responsibility and Business Model - The company's unique "family farm model" integrates social responsibility with business development, having paid over 1.466 billion yuan in contract farming fees to local farmers from 2022 to the first half of 2025, thereby increasing the income of thousands of farmers [2]. - This model is seen as a market-oriented practice of the rural revitalization strategy, achieving a shared benefit between the company and farmers [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, as the process of capacity optimization progresses, the market supply - demand relationship will gradually improve, and the far - month contracts are relatively supported due to the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction. In the medium - term, with high supply pressure, pig prices are likely to fall rather than rise. In the short - term, pig prices may fluctuate due to multiple factors. Currently, the supply pressure remains high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to fundamentally change in the short - term, so pig prices may continue to be under pressure, and the market may maintain range - bound fluctuations [7][117]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - In October 2025, the main contract of live hog futures switched from LH2511 to LH2601, which fluctuated widely after a gap - down opening and dropped significantly overall. By the end of October, the main contract LH2601 fell 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.88%, and closed at 11815 yuan/ton [6][13]. (2) Spot Price - As of October 23, 2025, the national average live hog price was 12.32 yuan/kg, down 0.95 yuan/kg from the previous month, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of October 31, the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of October 23, the average price of piglets was 25.13 yuan/kg, down 3.12 yuan/kg from the previous month. The prices of 20 - kg foreign - ternary piglets in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan also dropped significantly compared to the previous month [17][21][25]. 2. Supply - Demand Balance Situation (1) Global Live Hog Supply - Demand Balance - According to the USDA report, in 2024, the global live hog supply - demand gap was 36,816 thousand heads, an increase of 13,929 thousand heads year - on - year, and the global pork supply - demand gap was 1,350 thousand tons, an increase of 505 thousand tons year - on - year [32]. (2) China's Live Hog Supply - Demand Balance - According to the USDA report, in 2024, China's live hog supply - demand gap was 2,410 thousand heads, an increase of 11,781 thousand heads year - on - year, and China's pork supply - demand gap was - 1,209 thousand tons, an increase of 592 thousand tons year - on - year [39]. 3. Supply - Side Situation (1) Year - on - Year Live Hog Inventory - As of September 2025, the national live hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, and was at a relatively low historical level [45]. (2) Reproductive Sow Inventory - As of September 2025, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 30 thousand heads (0.07%) and a year - on - year decrease of 270 thousand heads (0.66%), and was at the lowest historical level [50]. (3) Live Hog Slaughter - In the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative live hog slaughter was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads (1.85%), and was at a relatively high level in the past five years [55]. (4) Pork Production - As of the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative pork production was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons (3.02%), and was at the highest level in the past five years [61]. (5) China's Pork Imports - In September 2025, China's monthly pork imports were 80 thousand tons, the same as the previous year and a month - on - month decrease of 20%, and were at the lowest level in the past five years [66]. 4. Demand - Side Situation (1) Slaughter Volume of Designated Live Hog Slaughtering Enterprises in China - In September 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises in China was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 million heads (6.99%), and was at the highest level in the past five years [73]. (2) Pork and Main Meat Production - As of September 30, 2025, the national cumulative main meat production was 731.2 million tons, of which the cumulative pork production was 436.8 million tons, accounting for 59.74% [77]. 5. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.46 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month, and the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.26 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of September 2025, the feed production was 31.287 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%, and was at the highest level in the past five years [80][86]. 6. Breeding Benefit Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 179.72 yuan/head, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog breeding profit was - 89.33 yuan/head, and the broiler chicken breeding profit was - 1.1 yuan/bird, all at relatively low historical levels [93][100][105]. 7. Pig - Grain Ratio - As of October 31, 2025, the pig - grain ratio in China was 5.54. According to the standard, the live hog price is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the national reserve operation frequency has increased recently [110]. 8. Recent Policies and Conferences in the Live Hog Industry (1) Live Hog Capacity Regulation Enterprise Symposium - On September 16, the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium, involving capacity control of reproductive sows, restriction of "secondary fattening", and weight reduction of live hog slaughter. The official proposed to reduce the reproductive sow inventory to 39.5 million heads, and many leading pig enterprises responded to the regulation [112][113]. (2) Video Conference on Live Hog Quarantine and Slaughter Work - On October 15, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to strengthen live hog quarantine and slaughter work, emphasizing the importance of quarantine and slaughter supervision, and requiring further optimization of related work to ensure pork product quality and safety [114]. 9. Fundamental Analysis - In October 2025, the national live hog spot price, binary sow price, and piglet price all declined. The supply pressure remains high, and the actual capacity reduction is slow. The inventory of frozen pork has increased due to the slowdown in sales. The demand has recovered to some extent with the drop in temperature, but the increase is limited. The breeding profit is in a loss state [115][116]. 10. Future Outlook - The same as the core viewpoints, in the long - term, the supply - demand relationship will improve; in the medium - term, pig prices are likely to fall; in the short - term, prices may fluctuate. The current supply pressure is high, and pig prices may continue to be under pressure [7][117]. 11. Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main live hog contract in November may maintain low - level range - bound fluctuations. For single - side trading, take a range - bound approach and gradually stop profiting on previous short positions; for arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see for the time being [8][118][119].

Core Viewpoint - The core challenge facing the industry is the pressure on profitability due to oversupply in the market [1] Industry Challenges - The industry is experiencing deep losses due to oversupply, which many participants find unsustainable [1] - There is a need to strictly control new production capacity to stabilize the overall supply [1] - Inefficient production capacity, especially in restricted areas and those failing to meet environmental standards, should be eliminated [1]