当地时间1月11日晚，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔通过美联储官网网站和官方社交账号发布视频声明，证实自己正面临联邦检察官的刑事调查。 鲍威尔直指此次调查是特朗普政府的政治施压手段，核心原因是美联储坚持基于经济数据制定利率政策，未顺从总统的降息要求，而非调查所宣称的国会 证词或办公楼翻新项目问题。 调查缘起：传票指向国会证词与翻新项目，鲍威尔称系"借口" 鲍威尔在声明中披露，1月9日（周五），美国司法部向美联储送达大陪审团传票，以其2025年6月在参议院银行委员会的证词为由威胁发起刑事起诉。该 证词部分涉及美联储一项为期多年的历史性办公楼翻新项目。 但鲍威尔明确驳斥这一调查理由："此次新的威胁与我去年6月的证词或美联储办公楼翻新无关，也与国会的监督职责无关——美联储已通过证词和公开披 露充分向国会通报项目进展，这些都只是借口。"他强调，调查的本质是"美联储能否继续基于证据和经济状况制定货币政策，还是会屈服于政治压力与恐 吓"。 据《纽约时报》援引知情官员消息，此次调查由哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室负责，该办公室负责人珍妮宁·皮罗曾担任纽约州检察官和福克斯新闻主 持人，由特朗普亲自任命。一名熟悉调查的人士向CNBC证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets, despite heightened volatility in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metal Price Movements - On January 11, gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange reached a historic high, surpassing $4,612 per ounce [1]. - In the first complete trading week of 2026, both gold and silver futures prices have shown significant increases, with gold rising by 3.96% and silver by 11.72% [3]. - Silver futures experienced extreme volatility, with a single-day increase of nearly 8%, a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14%, and a subsequent two-day drop of over 7% [5]. Group 2: Market Influences - Geopolitical events, such as the U.S. raid in Venezuela, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the increased allocation of precious metals by investors [3]. - Goldman Sachs noted that silver lacks the demand support from global central bank reserves, making its price more sensitive to market liquidity [8]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index underwent an annual rebalancing, significantly reducing the weight of precious metals, which may trigger passive liquidation of gold and silver positions [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite facing short-term downward pressure, multiple financial institutions anticipate that both precious and industrial metal prices will have room for growth this year [12]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that a normalization of monetary policy, particularly interest rate cuts driven by easing core inflation pressures, could support higher metal prices, especially for precious metals and copper [16]. Group 4: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices have also risen due to increased geopolitical risks and unexpected reductions in U.S. crude oil inventories, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising by 3.14% and Brent crude by 4.26% [18].

| COMEX黄金 GC00Y (2026-01-12 10:57:03) 交易所: CME全属期货 | | | | | 期货行情 外汇行情 货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4587.91 | 成交量: 6.122万 | 今开:4529.1 | 量高: 4612.7 | 滋肤幅: 1.93% | 外盘: 2.995万 | | 87.0 1.93% | 持仓量: 29.58万 | 昨德:4500.9 | 最低: 4520.8 | 涨跌额: 87.0 | 内盘: 3.127万 | 美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格东方财富网 另据央视新闻报道，2026年第一个完整交易周，在2025年表现强势的贵金属，继续牛市行情，黄金和白 银期货价格均累计上涨，但波动性明显加剧。 当地时间1月11日，美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格创历史新高，一度突破每盎司4612.7美元。截至 北京时间12日10时57分，报4587.9美元/盎司，日内涨幅达1.93%。 综合多家金融机构的分析来看，本周有两个因素加剧了贵金属价格的下行压力： 一是彭博大宗商品指数本周启动年度再平衡调整，贵金属权 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with only 50,000 new jobs added in December 2025, and a total of 584,000 jobs created throughout the year, marking a significant decline from the 2 million jobs added in 2024, the weakest performance since the early 2000s excluding recession years [1] - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi attributed part of the labor market stagnation to the tariff policies implemented by former President Trump, indicating that these tariffs have directly impacted employment in manufacturing, transportation, distribution, and agriculture sectors [1] - The uncertainty in hiring decisions among businesses is exacerbated by rising costs and squeezed profit margins due to tariffs, leading to a more cautious approach in recruitment and investment decisions [2] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector has lost approximately 70,000 jobs in recent months, with other trade-related industries such as mining, logging, and warehousing also experiencing significant job losses [2] - Healthcare and social services remain among the few sectors still hiring steadily, suggesting that without these industries, the employment data for 2025 would be even worse [2] - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariff policies is critical, as it may affect the legality of certain tariffs, but other tariffs imposed through different legal means may continue to pose a threat to the global trade system [3]

Core Views - The overseas market is influenced by geopolitical disturbances driving commodity prices up, while US stocks rise due to favorable technology catalysts and easing economic concerns. The MSCI global index increased by 1.49%, with most regional indices rising, led by South Korea. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 rose by 1.6%, 1.9%, 2.3%, and 4.6% respectively. The 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields changed by -1bp and 7bp to 4.18% and 3.54% respectively. The US dollar index rose by 0.69% to 99.14, while COMEX gold, silver, and ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.07%, 10.41%, and 3.65% respectively [2][19][22]. Macro Overview - The US PMI shows continued divergence, with no further deterioration in the labor market. The ISM manufacturing PMI for December recorded 47.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, indicating manufacturing contraction. The services PMI rose to 54.4%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by strong holiday demand. Non-farm payrolls for December added 50,000 jobs, below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% [2][3][4]. Policy Insights - The US is increasing control over Venezuelan oil, with Trump announcing that Venezuela will transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of sanctioned high-quality oil to the US, which will be sold at market prices. Trump also indicated he has decided on a new Federal Reserve chairperson, with an announcement expected soon. The Supreme Court has yet to release a ruling on Trump's tariffs, with the next key date being January 14 [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The US stock market is supported by the CES technology conference and improved employment data, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing significant gains. The S&P 500 index's PE ratio is at 29.75, above the historical average, indicating high valuation levels. The index's price-to-earnings ratio relative to the 10-year Treasury yield is 0.82, also above the historical average [23][28][29]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, all sectors except utilities saw gains, with consumer discretionary, materials, and industrials leading the way. Notable concept indices such as OLED, 3D printing, and lithium batteries performed well, with increases of 11.5%, 10.1%, and 8.8% respectively [33][29]. Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index declining by 0.4% and 0.9% respectively. The healthcare sector led gains due to favorable policies, while the overall market remains volatile amid changing expectations for interest rate cuts [38][43].

Core Insights - Nansha has become a significant strategic platform for national development, benefiting from accelerated policy dividends as it achieves the first phase of the "Nansha Plan" [1] Tax Incentives - In 2022, three regional tax incentive policies were introduced, including a reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% for eligible industries starting January 1, 2022 [1] - As of November 2025, 60 enterprises have benefited from the 15% corporate income tax incentive, with a total tax reduction exceeding 2.1 billion yuan [2] - The number of Hong Kong and Macau enterprises in the Nansha area has increased fivefold over three years, with over 210 registered and settled enterprises [1][2] Market Access and Innovation - In 2023, the "Nansha Opinions" were issued to relax market access and enhance regulatory reforms, particularly in the biomedicine and intelligent unmanned systems sectors [2] - Nansha has achieved national firsts in cell and gene therapy, including the first clinical applications for thalassemia and liver failure treatments [2][3] - The implementation of a comprehensive unmanned system management platform is underway, enhancing operational efficiency across various sectors [3] Financial Support and Open Economy - The "Nansha Financial 30 Measures" were introduced in May 2025 to support financial openness and innovation, positioning Nansha as a key international financial hub [3][4] - The Free Trade Account (FT Account) system has opened over 9,700 accounts, facilitating nearly 5 trillion yuan in cross-border settlements [4] - Nansha has pioneered climate financing standards and products, including the first "climate financing + rural revitalization" loans and "green climate loans" [5] Future Development - Nansha aims to create a high-quality development loop integrating industrial incentives, institutional innovation, and financial support, focusing on optimizing the business environment and enhancing cooperation with Hong Kong and Macau [5]

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices surged, reaching a high of $4612 per ounce, marking a new historical peak after two weeks [1][2] - COMEX silver prices also increased, reported at $83.9 per ounce, with a daily rise of 5.7% [3] - Domestic precious metal futures continued to rise, with Shanghai gold futures up approximately 3% at 1031 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures up 12% at 20614 yuan per kilogram [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals, while expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also increased following U.S. employment data [3] - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, currently holding 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons), which is expected to support gold prices [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan has raised its forecast to $5000 per ounce by Q4 2026, with a long-term outlook of $6000 per ounce [4] Group 3 - The global central banks are adjusting their reserve structures, reducing reliance on U.S. dollar assets and viewing gold as a core tool to hedge against sovereign currency credit risks [4] - The World Gold Council reports that gold is expected to perform well in 2025, with potential price increases of 15% to 30% in 2026 based on current levels [4] - Morgan Stanley maintains its average silver price forecast at $40.1 per ounce for 2026, while Bank of America has a more optimistic outlook, predicting silver prices could peak between $135 and $309 per ounce [5]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "black swan events," introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, refers to rare and unpredictable occurrences that can have significant impacts, such as financial crises, pandemics, and wars, leading to market volatility [1] Group 1 - Investors should enhance their risk resilience through diversification and maintaining liquidity rather than attempting to predict such events [1] - The Zhejiang Investor Education Base emphasizes the importance of investor relations and focuses on providing financial information services [1] - The organization explores an "Internet + Investor Education" model, combining online and offline methods to make investor education services more accessible [1]

【环球网财经综合报道】2026年第一个完整交易周，贵金属继续强势行情，黄金和白银期货价格均实现上 涨，但波动性明显加剧。有多家机构预计，即便面临短期下行压力，2026年贵金属和工业金属价格仍有上涨 空间。 半岛电视台近日发文称，在黄金价格表现最强劲的2025年之后，大规模投资者并未准备放弃对黄金的押注。 彭博社的一份报告和Investing.com平台的分析师表示，推动2025年黄金价格创纪录的因素仍然存在，虽然2026 年可能会更加谨慎，但自1980年以来一直坚挺的通胀数据，对贵金属依旧有支撑。 报道还提到，黄金在2025年飙升了约65%，为近半个世纪以来的最佳表现。对于这种异常表现，大多数基金经 理预计2026年不太可能重现这一行情，但他们也不会预期黄金价格出现大幅度回调。Fideliti International的托 管专员伊恩·萨姆森表示，预计2026年黄金将继续上涨，中央银行的购买、利率下降和财务赤字的增加.，仍然 是推动黄金价格上涨的基本因素。 此外，还投资者认为，主权货币的信心丧失已成为黄金坚挺表现的基石之一，摩根士丹利投资主管迈克·威尔 逊认为，黄金已"成为对抗纸币的更有效的赌注"，他还建议 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market is experiencing a significant transformation, moving from quantity to quality, driven by various factors including government policies and changing consumer preferences [1][4][6] Group 1: Consumer Activity - During the New Year holiday, 142 million domestic trips were made in China, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, indicating strong consumer activity [1] - Hainan's duty-free sales on January 1 reached 251 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.8%, showcasing the appeal of winter tourism and shopping [2] - The rise of "China Shopping" reflects a shift in purchasing trends, with consumers increasingly buying high-tech products and cultural items rather than traditional goods [2][3] Group 2: Policy Support - The Chinese government is implementing a series of policies aimed at stimulating consumption, including a more proactive fiscal policy and specific actions to boost consumer spending [4][5] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting consumption as a key driver for balanced economic growth, highlighting the importance of consumer spending in the overall economy [5][6] Group 3: Economic Resilience - China's consumer market is not only recovering but also showing signs of structural optimization and enhanced internal momentum, contributing to economic resilience [6] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating a steady expansion of market demand [6] Group 4: Global Opportunities - Global companies and investors are encouraged to adapt to the evolving Chinese market, particularly in retail and service sectors, to capitalize on the growing consumer base [7] - There is a notable shift in consumer preferences towards local products and experiences, presenting new opportunities for foreign brands to tailor their strategies to meet local demands [7]