Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: April 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: SP Main Contract Information - Closing Price on April 9, 2025: 5202.00 [2] - Closing Prices and Changes in Recent Days: - April 9: 5202.00, -4.41014% from the previous day [2] - April 8: 5442.00, 1.52985% [2] - April 7: 5360.00, -3.45821% [2] - April 3: 5552.00, -2.11566% [2] - April 2: 5672.00, 0.60305% [2] - Converted US Dollar Prices: - April 9: 617.92 [2] - April 8: 647.96 [2] - April 7: 639.98 [2] - April 3: 664.17 [2] - April 2: 681.74 [2] - Basis Information: - Shandong Yinxing Basis: April 9 - 1223; April 8 - 1008; April 7 - 1090; April 3 - 923; April 2 - 828 [2] - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing Basis: April 9 - 1248; April 8 - 1023; April 7 - 1105; April 3 - 938; April 2 - 853 [2] Group 3: Pulp Price and Profit Information - Pulp Prices and Import Profits: - Canada - Jinshi (CFR): Port US Dollar Price 840, Shandong RMB Price 6880, Import Profit -146.62 [2] - Canada - Xiongshi (CFR): Port US Dollar Price 820, Shandong RMB Price 6000, Import Profit -790.51 [2] - Chile - Yinxing (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit): Port US Dollar Price 825, Shandong RMB Price 6425, Import Profit -497.04 [2] Group 4: Pulp Average Price Information - National and Shandong Average Pulp Prices (April 2 - April 9): - National: Coniferous Pulp - 6073.75; Broad - leaf Pulp - 4810.75; Natural Pulp - 5415.00; Chemimechanical Pulp - 3686.25 [2] - Shandong: Coniferous Pulp - 6245.00; Broad - leaf Pulp - 4775.00; Natural Pulp - 5400.00; Chemimechanical Pulp - 3600.00 [2] - Price Changes: All 0.00 [2] Group 5: Paper Index and Profit Margin Information - Paper Index Information (April 3 - April 9): - Cultural Paper: Double - offset Index - 5725; Double - copper Index - 5670 [2] - Packaging Paper: White Card Index - 4350 [2] - Living Paper: Living Index - April 3 - 896, April 7 - 894, April 8 - 891, April 9 - 896 [2] - Paper Index Changes: All 0 [2] - Paper Profit Margin Estimation and Changes: - Double - offset Profit Margin: April 3 - 8.2110%, April 7 - 8.7982%, April 8 - 8.2130%, April 9 - 8.5981%, Change 0.3851 [2] - Double - copper Profit Margin: April 3 - 24.3804%, April 7 - 24.8370%, April 8 - 25.0326%, April 9 - 24.6776%, Change - 0.3550 [2] - White Card Profit Margin: April 3 - -11.7442%, April 7 - -11.3372%, April 8 - -11.1628%, April 9 - -10.8953%, Change 0.2675 [2] - Living Paper Profit Margin: April 3 - 7.0231%, April 7 - 6.2483%, April 8 - 7.2023%, April 9 - 7.9797%, Change 0.7774 [2] Group 6: Pulp Price Difference Information - Pulp Price Differences (April 2 - April 9): - Coniferous - Broad - leaf Price Difference: April 9 - 1875.00; April 8 - 1850; April 7 - 1800; April 3 - 1825; April 2 - 1850 [2] - Coniferous - Natural Price Difference: April 9 - 1025; April 8 - 1050; April 7 - 1050; April 3 - 1075; April 2 - 1100 [2] - Coniferous - Chemimechanical Price Difference: April 9 - 2550; April 8 - 2575; April 7 - 2575; April 3 - 2600; April 2 - 2625 [2] - Coniferous - Waste Paper Price Difference: April 9 - 4849; April 8 - 4874; April 7 - 4874; April 3 - 4899; April 2 - 4924 [2]

2024年以来，造纸行业承压运行，行业头部企业通过精益管理等举措实现了业绩增长。4月9日晚，纸业 龙头太阳纸业（002078）发布年报，2024年，实现营收407.27亿元，同比增长2.99%，净利润为31.01亿 元，同比增长0.50%。 目前，太阳纸业是国内重要的综合性纸、浆产品供应商之一，主要产品双胶纸、铜版纸、牛皮箱板纸、 生活用纸、食品用纸、溶解浆等产品在国内市场拥有较高的市场占有率。 太阳纸业表示，2025年公司将聚焦创新驱动发展战略，精益运营、深化高效协同，在市场攻坚、人才发 展、项目建设等方面聚焦发力。 该公司称，老挝基地的营林工程将作为公司未来战略发展的核心板块持续推进，在扩大营林面积的同 时，创新管理举措，确保苗壮树丰，从源头上提升公司的发展优势。 同时，充分发挥销售龙头作用，精心安排好新项目投产后的各项市场准备，打好文化用纸、生活用纸、 特种纸产品等的"出海倍增"攻坚战，构筑内贸+出口"双轮驱动"增长新引擎。 太阳纸业还提到，2025年是公司新上项目的投资大年，山东基地颜店厂区3.7万吨特种纸基新材料项 目，山东基地兖州厂区溶解浆生产线搬迁改造项目，广西基地南宁园区"林浆纸一体化项目"一 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [17]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the home furnishing sector is primarily driven by domestic demand, with improving fundamentals and low valuations. The report suggests that the industry is at a turning point, with many companies currently valued at historical lows, presenting a buying opportunity [2]. - In the consumer discretionary sector, companies with low exposure to foreign markets are expected to benefit from industry recovery and consumption promotion policies. Specific companies are highlighted for their growth potential [3]. - The paper industry is anticipated to see cost increases due to tariffs on imported wood pulp, which may benefit domestic high-end corrugated paper manufacturers. The report suggests that domestic companies can adjust their supply chains to mitigate cost impacts [4]. - The metal packaging sector is primarily focused on domestic demand, with companies actively exploring Southeast Asian markets. The report predicts that as domestic demand recovers, the industry's profitability is likely to improve [4]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Domestic sales are the main focus, with companies like 欧派家居 (13x PE), 索菲亚 (11x), and 志邦家居 (9x) highlighted for their low valuations and potential for growth. The report notes that the domestic market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the second-hand housing sector [2]. Consumer Discretionary - Companies such as 晨光股份 (16x), 登康口腔 (31x), and 稳健医疗 (22x) are recommended due to their low foreign sales exposure and strong growth prospects driven by domestic consumption and strategic initiatives [3]. Paper Industry - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on imported wood pulp, suggesting that domestic high-end corrugated paper manufacturers like 山鹰国际 (16x) and 太阳纸业 (11x) may benefit from a potential demand gap created by these tariffs [4]. Metal Packaging - The report highlights that companies like 奥瑞金 (12x) and 昇兴股份 (10x) are primarily focused on domestic sales, with limited foreign exposure. The expectation is that as domestic demand improves, the industry's profitability will also recover [4].

Core Viewpoint - Morning Paper Industry reported a significant loss in 2024, with revenue of 22.729 billion yuan and a net loss of 7.411 billion yuan, while net assets stood at 9.156 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [1] Company Summary - The company is implementing a dual strategy of "stopping the bleeding and generating blood" to address financial difficulties, supported by government and financial institutions [2][4] - Morning Paper Industry is focusing on strategic adjustments and operational improvements, including production resumption plans, cost control, market expansion, and asset disposal [2][3] - Internal management is being restructured to achieve a flatter organization, optimize personnel allocation, and enhance operational efficiency [3] - The company has established a provincial-level creditor committee with financial creditors to facilitate debt restructuring and maintain stable credit lines [4] Industry Summary - The paper industry is facing challenges such as environmental regulations, changing market demand, and increased competition, leading to price pressures and declining profit margins [2][8] - There is a recent trend of recovery in the global paper industry, with expectations of price increases for cultural and packaging paper [6][7] - The cost of raw materials, particularly wood pulp, has stabilized and begun to rise, which may help mitigate some cost pressures for companies like Morning Paper Industry [7] - Government policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to improve market demand for paper products, contributing to a potential recovery in the industry [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index decreased by 1.47% this week, outperforming the broader market by 0.82 percentage points; the paper sub-sector fell by 0.50%, outperforming the market by 1.79 percentage points [2][12] - Cultural paper prices remained stable while packaging paper prices declined [4][19] - The report highlights a potential price recovery for cultural paper and white cardboard due to cost support from rising pulp prices [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index fell by 1.47%, while the paper sub-sector decreased by 0.50%, ranking 19th among 28 first-level industries [2][12] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing, ranked by decline, are paper, packaging printing, furniture, and entertainment products, with declines of 0.50%, 0.69%, 1.87%, and 3.52% respectively [2][12] Industry Chain Data Tracking - Raw materials: Domestic waste paper prices fell by 19 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices increased by 5-15 USD/ton [23] - Finished paper: Double-sided paper prices remained stable at 5450 CNY/ton, while white cardboard prices decreased by 10 CNY/ton to 4300 CNY/ton [35] - Profitability: There is a divergence in profitability for cultural paper, with large paper companies seeing a decrease of 3 CNY/ton, while small companies increased by 15 CNY/ton [39] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Sun Paper Industry (002078, Buy), Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733, Buy), Huawang Technology (605377, Buy), and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007, Hold) [4] - For waste paper products, the report suggests Jiu Long Paper (02689, Buy) and Shanying International (600567, Hold) due to expected improvements in supply and demand dynamics [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The government has set a positive tone for policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to benefit the light industry manufacturing sector [5][64]. - The report highlights a trend of recovery in real estate sales, with significant year-on-year increases in sales figures for major cities, indicating a potential positive impact on related industries [5][64]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector that are well-managed and undervalued, such as Gujia Home (603816.SH) and Oppein Home (603833.SH) [5]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The light industry index closed at 2054.63 points with a weekly increase of 1.34%, ranking 16th among 31 sectors [10]. - Sub-sectors such as entertainment products, home goods, packaging, and paper all experienced positive growth, with increases of 3.02%, 1.24%, 0.99%, and 0.95% respectively [10]. Key Industry Data Tracking - In February 2025, the top 10 and top 100 real estate companies saw monthly sales increase by 16.5% and 8.2% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - The report notes significant increases in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, with Beijing up 114.95% and Shanghai up approximately 120% year-on-year [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong brand presence and channel strength, including high-end mattress leader Mousse (001323.SZ) and home furnishing leader Juran Home (000785.SZ) [5]. - It emphasizes the importance of companies that are enhancing their supply chain efficiency and organizational management, such as Smole International (6969.HK) [5]. Key Company Announcements - The report includes various company announcements, such as investment projects and share buybacks, indicating ongoing strategic initiatives within the sector [60]. Industry News - Recent government initiatives in Guangzhou to provide subsidies for home renovations are expected to stimulate demand in the home goods sector [63]. - The introduction of AI technology in 3D modeling for home design is seen as a significant innovation that could enhance efficiency in the industry [63].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The A-share market experienced increased trading activity with an average daily turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan, but overall market sentiment was bearish, leading to a decline in major indices [1][14] - The report highlights a shift in market focus towards value stocks and high-dividend sectors due to rising risk aversion amid escalating trade tensions and profit-taking behavior [2][15] - The manufacturing PMI improved from 49.1% to 50.2%, indicating a recovery in economic activity, while the service sector showed signs of decline post-Spring Festival [3][10] - The report notes a cyclical recovery in various industries, including steel, chemicals, and automotive, with property sales also showing a seasonal uptick [4][14] Summary by Sections Macro Economy and Policy Dynamics - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2%, reflecting stronger recovery compared to the previous year, driven by robust resumption of work and strong export demand [3][10] - The U.S. PCE inflation showed a slight decrease, with personal income rising by 0.9% while personal spending declined by 0.2%, indicating cautious consumer behavior [3][12] Industry Monitoring - The report indicates a cyclical recovery in the steel, chemical, and automotive sectors, with property sales showing a seasonal increase [4][14] - The average wholesale price of pork increased to 21.21 yuan/kg, while vegetable prices fell to 4.89 yuan/kg, reflecting mixed trends in commodity prices [4][16] Funding Trends - The report notes a net injection of 137 billion yuan in the open market, with a decrease in IPO and private placement fundraising compared to the previous month [5][18] - The total turnover rate for A-shares was recorded at 1.26%, indicating a slight increase in trading activity [5][18] Industry Performance - Among the 30 sectors, steel, construction materials, and real estate showed positive returns, while sectors like telecommunications and media faced significant declines [16][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the technology, manufacturing, consumption, and pharmaceutical sectors for long-term investment opportunities [2][15] Consumer Trends - The report discusses the evolving consumer preferences towards snacks over traditional meals, highlighting a shift in purchasing behavior due to inflation [26][27] - The white liquor industry is experiencing supply adjustments to stabilize prices, with major brands implementing supply controls [25][27] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the upcoming Two Sessions may provide clarity on economic policies and growth targets, which could influence market sentiment [31][33] - The report anticipates a continued focus on AI and cloud computing investments, particularly from major players like Alibaba, indicating growth potential in these sectors [29][30]

造纸轻工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 3 月智利纸浆外盘报价继续提涨 ——造纸产业链数据每周速递（2025/03/01） 核心观点 ⚫ 本周轻工制造行业指数上涨 0.19%，跑赢大盘 2.41pct；造纸子板块下跌 0.12%， 跑赢大盘 2.11pct。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，轻工制造(申万)指数上涨 0.19%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.41pct，在 28 个申万一级行业中位列第 7 位；二级行 业中，造纸子板块下跌 0.12%，跑赢大盘 2.11pct。本周轻工四大子板块按涨幅由大 到小分别为家具、文娱用品、造纸以及包装印刷板块，其中家具板块上涨 0.89%， 文娱用品、造纸以及包装印刷板块分别下跌 0.07%、0.12%、0.41%。 产业链数据跟踪 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 近期 Suzano 宣布 2025 年 3 月阔叶浆报价环比提涨 20 美元/吨、国内现货价格亦开 始触底回升，成本支撑下文化纸、白卡纸有望延续价格修复态势，推荐林浆纸一体 化行业龙头太阳纸业(002078，买入)。同时回溯历史来看，特种纸企业在浆价上行 之后的半年内通常会呈现出盈利扩张，推荐特种纸领军企业仙鹤 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The Guangdong carbon market has achieved a near balance between carbon emission allowances issued and actual emissions, although it remains slightly loose. The total carbon emissions from key industries such as steel, cement, paper, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and electricity are approximately 355-396 million tons, with average allowances issued around 425-451 million tons [1][2] - By 2025, significant changes are expected in the industries under the Guangdong carbon market, with steel and cement likely exiting the market to comply with national regulations, while the textile industry is anticipated to be included with a control scale of approximately 1.5-4 million tons [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Background and Mechanism of Guangdong Carbon Market - The Guangdong carbon market was established to address climate change, with a goal to reduce carbon emissions by 40%-45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. The market began operations in 2013, covering key industries [11][12] - The total carbon emission allowances represent 75%-90% of Guangdong's total emissions (excluding Shenzhen), with the power generation sector being the largest contributor [12][13] Section 2: Key Issues in the Guangdong Carbon Market - The report analyzes the carbon emissions and theoretical allowances for each regulated industry, noting that the overall emissions are directly related to production capacity and utilization rates [38] - The carbon market has seen a gradual expansion in the number of regulated industries, with the threshold for inclusion being lowered over time [17][18] - The distribution of allowances combines free and paid methods, with a significant portion of allowances being issued for free to encourage compliance and reduce costs for industries [19][22]

证券代码： 000488 200488 证券简称：ST 晨鸣 ST 晨鸣 B 公告编号：2025-007 山东晨鸣纸业集团股份有限公司 关于公司股价异动的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、股票交易异常波动的情况 山东晨鸣纸业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）A 股股票（股票代码：000488， 股票简称：ST 晨鸣）、B 股股票（股票代码：200488，股票简称：ST 晨鸣 B）交易价 格于 2025 年 2 月 21 日、2025 年 2 月 24 日、2025 年 2 月 25 日连续三个交易日收盘价 格跌幅偏离值累计超过 12%，根据《深圳证券交易所股票交易规则》的有关规定，属于 股票交易异常波动的情况。 二、公司关注并核实情况的说明 1、公司前期披露的信息不存在需要更正、补充之处。 2、公司未发现近期公共传媒报道了可能或已经对公司股票交易价格产生较大影响 的未公开重大信息。 3、根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》相关规定，公司 A 股、B 股股票自 2025 年 2 月 21 日开市起被实施其他风险警示，详情请参阅公司于 20 ...