丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 企业利润"开门红"在望 ——12 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 总的来看，年末外需走强带动下，工业企业利润增长动能不弱。2026 年 1 月，在春节错位下， 出口的量仍有望维持较好增长，领先出口数据的 Vizion 订舱量同比增速明显回升。外需承托下， 企业利润增长并无近忧，但 2 月出口面临高基数后，增长动能仍待察。内需方面，政策发力推 动投资止跌回稳的信号在逐步释放，在服务消费支持政策尚未有明确框架的前提下，增量政策 更多集中在企业投资领域，短期思路或优先推动投资止跌回稳。在内需和外需双重发力下，一 季度有望实现企业利润的"开门红"。 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 企业利润"开门红 2] "在望 《眼前的税收，远方的通胀 • ——宏观周脉"博"系列 2》2026-01-18 ——12 月工业企业利润点评 [Table_Sum ...

（原标题：从"三驾马车"看2025中国经济高质量收官的内生逻辑与外部意义） 一、消费向"主引擎"回归：从规模扩容到结构升级的内需逻辑 敦志刚/文 回望2025年的"年报答卷"，值得关注的不是单一指标的亮眼，而是增长结构与发展逻辑的改善：全年最 终消费支出、资本形成总额、货物和服务净出口对经济增长的贡献率分别为52.0%、15.3%、32.7%。 其中，消费贡献超过五成，服务消费与数字消费加速扩容；投资在房地产调整中"去旧立新"，设备更新 与高技术投资抬升资本质量；外贸在不确定性中稳住规模并优化结构，高技术出口与市场多元化增强韧 性；价格、预期、利润等关键变量边际改善，为2026年开局提供更顺畅的宏观环境。 由此可见，中国经济的优势正在从规模体量的"静态优势"，转化为制度协同、产业升级、市场整合带来 的"动态优势"。 资后，固定资产投资仅下降0.5%，显示投资下行主要来自房地产调整的拖累而非实体经济全面收缩。 分领域看，基础设施投资下降2.2%，制造业投资增长0.6%，房地产开发投资下降17.2%；新建商品房销 售面积88101万平方米，下降8.7%，销售额83937亿元，下降12.6%，表明房地产仍在出清与重 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 739.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [1] Summary by Sections Profit Distribution by Ownership Type - State-controlled enterprises reported a total profit of 205.61 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year - Shareholding enterprises achieved a profit of 55,408.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw profits rise by 4.2% to 17,447.4 billion yuan - Private enterprises maintained profits at 22,810.6 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous year [1] Profit Distribution by Industry - The mining industry experienced a significant profit decline of 26.2%, totaling 83.45 billion yuan - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 5.0%, amounting to 569.16 billion yuan - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry reported a profit growth of 9.4%, reaching 87.21 billion yuan [1] Monthly Performance - In December, profits for industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year [4] Financial Indicators - Total operating revenue for industrial enterprises was 139.20 trillion yuan, up 1.1% from the previous year - Operating costs amounted to 118.75 trillion yuan, increasing by 1.3% - The operating profit margin was 5.31%, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points from the previous year [2] Asset and Liability Overview - By the end of 2025, total assets of industrial enterprises reached 188.41 trillion yuan, growing by 4.3% - Total liabilities were 108.58 trillion yuan, up 4.2% - Total equity stood at 79.82 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.5% - The asset-liability ratio was 57.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [3] Accounts Receivable and Inventory - Accounts receivable totaled 27.43 trillion yuan, increasing by 4.7% - Finished goods inventory reached 6.73 trillion yuan, up 3.9% [3] Efficiency Metrics - The cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 85.31 yuan, an increase of 0.16 yuan - The average collection period for accounts receivable was 67.9 days, an increase of 3.6 days from the previous year [3]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 1 月 27 日 风险提示：海外衰退风险；地缘关系的不确定性。 相关研究报告 2025 年工企利润数据点评 期待 2026 年初投资"实物工作量" 价格端对工业企业利润的拖累仍存。制造业对工业企业盈利的整体带动作用 延续凸显。期待 2026 年初投资"实物工作量"。 国家统计局网站 1 月 27 日信息显示，2025 年 1-12 月（下文简称"1-12 月"）全国规模以上工业企业（以下简称为"工业企业"）实现利润总 额 73982.0 亿元，同比增长 0.6%，增速较 1-11 月加快 0.5 个百分点； 2025 年 12 月（下文简称"12 月"），工业企业利润同比增长 5.3%，增 速较 11 月明显加快 18.4 个百分点。 营业收入、成本方面，1-12 月工业企业营业收入同比增长 1.1%，增幅较 1-11 月收窄 0.5 个百分点，每百元资产实现营业收入 75.9 元，较 1-11 月 增加 1.5 元。1-12 月工业企业营业成本同比增长 1.3%，增幅较 1-11 月收 窄 0.5 个百分点。盈利能力方面，1-12 月规模以上工业企业营 ...

21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 北京报道 1月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年全国规模以上工业企业利润增长0.6%，扭转了连续三年下降态势。三大 门类中，制造业实现利润总额56915.7亿元，增长5.0%，增速较2024年大幅回升8.9个百分点。装备制造业、高技术制造业等新动能支撑作用明显。其中， 2025年，规模以上装备制造业利润较上年增长7.7%，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点，是对规模以上工业企业利润增长拉动作用最强的板 块。 从2025年全年走势来看，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，全年利润增速波动较大，但中长期向好趋势未变，企业盈利基础仍在 稳步修复。 对于全年工业企业利润扭转连续三年下降态势，远东资信研究院副院长张林对21世纪经济报道记者表示，2025年工业企业利润的止跌回升，意味着内需与外 需的恢复效应开始显现。 展望2026年，温彬表示，工业企业利润有望延续修复态势。需求端，国内消费平稳增长，投资逐步止跌回稳，出口有望量稳质升，总体需求稳中向好；物价 端，反"内卷"政策作用下，物价降幅收窄，企业成本压力有所缓解，进一步支撑利润改善。此外，随着新型工 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China increased by 0.6%, reversing a three-year decline, with manufacturing profits rising significantly due to new growth drivers [1][5]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Industry Performance - The total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 73,982 billion yuan in 2025, with manufacturing profits totaling 56,915.7 billion yuan, marking a 5.0% increase, a significant rebound of 8.9 percentage points from 2024 [4][6]. - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises, making it the strongest driving force [1][7]. - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 13.3%, outperforming the overall industrial profit growth by 12.7 percentage points, indicating a strong momentum for high-quality industrial development [8]. Group 2: Monthly and Yearly Trends - In December 2025, profits for large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.3%, recovering from a 13.1% decline in November, reflecting a significant turnaround [4]. - The profit margin for industrial enterprises improved from 4.53% in early 2025 to 5.31% by December, indicating reduced competitive pressure and improved industrial product prices [5][6]. Group 3: Sectoral Insights - Among the three major sectors, mining profits fell by 26.2%, while electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industries saw a profit increase of 9.4% [6]. - In the manufacturing sector, profits from upstream raw materials grew rapidly, while downstream consumer goods manufacturing saw a decline in profits [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, industrial profits are expected to continue their recovery, supported by stable domestic consumption, investment stabilization, and improved export quality [2][9]. - The ongoing implementation of anti-"involution" policies is anticipated to alleviate cost pressures on enterprises, further supporting profit improvements [2][8].

Core Insights - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 73,982 billion yuan, marking a 0.6% increase from the previous year, reversing a three-year decline [1] - December 2025 saw a monthly profit increase of 5.3%, recovering from a 13.1% decline in November, representing an 18.4 percentage point rebound [1] Industry Performance - The mining industry reported a total profit of 8,345.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.2% year-on-year [3] - The manufacturing sector achieved a total profit of 56,915.7 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.0% [3] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry recorded a profit of 8,721.2 billion yuan, with a growth of 9.4% [3] Sector-Specific Profit Growth - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry saw profits increase by 3.0 times year-on-year [4] - The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 22.6% [4] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry experienced a profit increase of 19.5% [4] - The power and heat production and supply industry grew by 13.9% [4] - The specialized equipment manufacturing industry saw a profit increase of 5.7% [4] - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 4.9% [4] - The general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 4.2% [4] - The agricultural and sideline food processing industry grew by 3.2% [4] - The automotive manufacturing industry saw a slight profit increase of 0.6% [4] - The petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry reduced losses compared to the previous year [4] - The non-metallic mineral products industry declined by 1.7% [4] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 7.3% [4] - The textile industry saw a decline of 12.0% [4] - The oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 18.7% [4] - The coal mining and washing industry experienced a significant decline of 41.8% [4] Emerging Industry Trends - In 2025, the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [4] - The equipment manufacturing sector accounted for 39.8% of total industrial profits, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous year [4] - The high-tech manufacturing sector's profits grew by 13.3%, surpassing the overall industrial profit growth by 12.7 percentage points [4] Traditional Industry Developments - Traditional industries showed significant profit growth, with the biochemical pesticide and microbial pesticide manufacturing industries growing by 20.7% and 15.2%, respectively, exceeding the average profit growth in the chemical industry [5] - In the chemical fiber and power industries, the bio-based chemical fiber manufacturing and biomass power generation industries saw profits increase by 88.6% and 47.9%, respectively, significantly above their respective industry averages [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The chief statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that overall profit growth in industrial enterprises is evident, supported by new industrial dynamics, while acknowledging challenges from external environmental changes and the need for continued technological and industrial innovation [5]

1月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额73982.0亿元，比上年增长0.6%，扭转了连续三年下降态势。 单月来看，2025年12月份，规模以上工业企业当月利润由11月份下降13.1%转为增长5.3%，回升18.4个百分点。 需要注意的是，2025年，装备制造业、高技术制造业等新动能支撑作用明显。 其中，2025年，规模以上装备制造业利润较上年增长7.7%，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点，是对规模以上工业企业利润增长拉动作用最 强的板块。规模以上装备制造业利润占全部工业企业利润的比重达39.8%，较上年提高2.6个百分点，工业企业利润结构进一步优化。 各月累计营业收入与利润总额同比增速。（国家统计局/图） 2025年，规模以上高技术制造业利润较上年增长13.3%，高于全部规模以上工业12.7个百分点。 分三大门类看，2025年，采矿业实现利润总额8345.1亿元，比上年下降26.2%；制造业实现利润总额56915.7亿元，增长5.0%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和 供应业实现利润总额8721.2亿元，增长9.4%。 另外，2025年，传统产业新质生产力发展 ...

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in China for January to October 2025 reached 408.914 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 1.7% on a comparable basis [1] - Private fixed asset investment decreased by 4.5% year-on-year [1] Investment by Industry - Investment in the primary industry was 80.75 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Investment in the secondary industry totaled 1,484.11 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.8% [1] - Investment in the tertiary industry fell by 5.3%, amounting to 2,524.29 billion yuan [1] - Within the secondary industry, industrial investment grew by 4.9%, with mining investment increasing by 3.8%, manufacturing investment rising by 2.7%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply surging by 12.5% [1] - In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) saw a slight decline of 0.1% [1] - Notable growth in infrastructure investment included pipeline transportation (up 13.8%), water transportation (up 9.4%), and railway transportation (up 3.0%) [1] Regional Investment Trends - Eastern region investment decreased by 5.4% year-on-year [1] - Central region investment declined by 0.5% [1] - Western region investment increased by 0.4% [1] - Northeastern region investment experienced a significant drop of 11.7% [1] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprise fixed asset investment fell by 1.7% year-on-year [1] - Investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises decreased by 1.8% [1] - Foreign enterprise fixed asset investment saw a notable decline of 12.1% [1]

Group 1 - A significant financial operation involving U.S. Treasury bonds has drawn global attention, with Danish and Swedish pension funds selling approximately $8.1 billion in U.S. debt within a few days [1] - The sell-off is perceived as a response to geopolitical tensions, with Trump's threats of major retaliation against large-scale asset sales indicating a new battleground in U.S.-Europe relations [3] - The Danish pension fund's decision to divest from U.S. bonds was attributed to concerns over U.S. fiscal instability, while Sweden's largest pension fund cited unpredictable U.S. policies as the reason for its reduction in holdings [7][8] Group 2 - Trump's aggressive rhetoric at the Davos Forum highlighted the seriousness of the U.S. response to European asset sales, suggesting that U.S. Treasury bonds are not to be taken lightly [8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary attempted to downplay the impact of Denmark's bond sell-off, indicating a desire to control the narrative and prevent other European nations from following suit [8] - The European financial landscape is characterized by a significant reliance on U.S. debt, making large-scale sell-offs risky and potentially destabilizing for the market [13] Group 3 - European countries are cautious in their financial maneuvers due to their heavy debt burdens and economic vulnerabilities, which limit their ability to respond aggressively to U.S. actions [14] - The recent bond sell-offs by private institutions in Europe are seen as tentative moves rather than declarations of financial war, aimed at gauging U.S. reactions [14] - In light of the U.S.-Europe tensions, European nations are seeking to strengthen ties with China, indicating a strategic pivot to diversify their economic partnerships [16]