Core Viewpoint - The sugar market is experiencing a delicate balance due to mixed factors, with concerns over Brazilian sugarcane quality providing support while a weaker dollar has injected upward momentum into prices [3][5]. Price Movements - As of Friday, October futures for New York raw sugar closed at 16.48 cents per pound, up 0.13 cents (0.79%), with a weekly increase of 0.24%. March contracts reached 17.15 cents per pound, up 0.41%, while May contracts slightly rose to 16.85 cents per pound [3]. - London white sugar futures also increased, with the October contract rising by $4.10 to $486.70 per ton, reflecting a 0.85% increase and a weekly rise of 1.14% [3]. Key Factors Analysis - Concerns over Brazilian sugarcane quality are the primary support for the market. The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica) reported a year-on-year decline in the ATR (total recoverable sugar) levels in the second half of July, which is a fundamental reason for the anticipated drop in production [3]. - Analysts from Safras & Mercado noted that the peak harvesting period for Brazilian sugarcane has passed in July, leading to a gradual decrease in crushing volumes, which will tighten market supply and support prices, particularly in the domestic market [4]. Demand Signals - Positive signals in global demand have emerged, with China's sugar imports in July surging 76% year-on-year to 740,000 tons, and Pakistan recently tendering for 200,000 tons of refined sugar, indicating robust global sugar demand [5]. Market Outlook - The ICE raw sugar market is expected to continue a pattern of technical consolidation alongside favorable fundamentals in the short term, with Brazilian sugarcane quality and subsequent crushing data remaining focal points [6]. - As long as the supply issues in Brazil are not substantively resolved, the logic for rising sugar prices will persist. Technical indicators suggest that the market is not in extreme overbought or oversold conditions, indicating potential for continued price fluctuations around the mid-band of Bollinger Bands [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market: With Brazil reaching its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter a cumulative phase. Although the sugar production ratio in Brazil is high, the actual sugar production remains low due to low cane crushing volume and sugar content. There is a deviation between market expectations and reality, so the final output is still uncertain. The sugar price is currently low with limited downward space, and the external sugar trend is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the progress of sugar production in Brazil [3]. - Domestic market: The production and sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and the sugar inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. The domestic white sugar price is greatly affected by the international sugar price, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of external sugar [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading strategies: - Unilateral: In the short term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is greatly affected by the international market and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 5700 [4]. - Arbitrage: Hold off for now [4]. - Options: Hold off for now [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - International supply - demand pattern changes: - The 24/25 sugar season in the Northern Hemisphere had lower - than - expected production increases. - The 25/26 sugar season in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to have a restorative increase in production. Attention should be paid to the sugar - pressing situation in Brazil [6]. - Brazil situation: - In the second half of July, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the cane crushing volume was 50.217 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.373 million tons (2.66%); the cane ATR was 139.62 kg/ton, a decrease of 7.67 kg/ton compared to the same period last year; the sugar - making ratio was 54.1%, an increase of 3.78% compared to the same period last year; sugar production was 3.614 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29,000 tons (0.8%) [8]. - As of the second half of July in the 2025/26 sugar season, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the cumulative cane crushing volume was 306.237 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.71 million tons (8.57%); the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 52.06%, an increase of 2.93% compared to the same period last year; the cumulative sugar production was 19.268 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.621 million tons (7.76%). The year - on - year decline in cumulative sugar production continued to narrow (from 9.22% to 7.76%) [17]. - Brazil's sugar exports have increased, and the inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period [18]. - Other countries' situations: - Thailand is expected to have a slight increase in production in the new sugar season. In the 24/25 sugar season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and from January to June 2025, exports were 3.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 820,000 tons [19]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of India's ethanol volume on sugar supply and demand. India's sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season may have a restorative increase. As of July 15, 2025, India's cumulative sugar production was about 26.103 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6% [23][25]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Domestic situation: - In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is in an increasing cycle and is expected to have a restorative increase to about 11 million tons (subject to weather changes) [27]. - The rising import profit has led to a strong import expectation [30]. - Customs data shows that in July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 318,200 tons. From January to July 2025, China imported 1.7778 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 53,900 tons (3.12%). As of July in the 2024/25 sugar season, China imported 3.2395 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 344,300 tons (9.61%) [42].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment for expected production increases in India and Thailand's 25/26 sugar seasons is high, suppressing sugar prices. Brazil's overall sugarcane pressing situation is poor due to low precipitation, leading to a lower ATR value and an increased sugar - ethanol ratio. China's out - of - quota sugar import window has been fluctuating, resulting in a significant increase in July's import volume and an expected high volume in August [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market. Positive factors include strong domestic sugar sales in some regions, sufficient end - of - season sugar inventory in India for domestic consumption, suspension of imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder, poor production in Brazil's 25/26 season, and potential increased demand from the return of sugar - containing beverages in the US. Negative factors include increased sugar production in some regions, expected production growth in Brazil and Thailand, early monsoons in India, large import volumes in July and expected high volumes in August, and poor sales in some regions in July [5][8]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for sugar is predicted to be between 5600 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5800 - 5850 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell call options (SR511C5800) at 30 - 40 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5650 - 5700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SR511P5500) at 20 - 30 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Market expectations of increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 seasons suppress sugar prices. Brazil's poor pressing situation due to low precipitation leads to low ATR values, and China's fluctuating import window causes large import volumes [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - As of the end of July, sugar sales in Guangxi and Yunnan increased year - on - year, with higher sales rates and lower industrial inventory in some cases. India's 2024/25 end - of - season sugar inventory is sufficient for domestic consumption from October to November 2025. China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder. Brazil's 25/26 season production is poor, and there are potential demand increases from the return of sugar - containing beverages in the US [5][6][8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production increased in some regions. Analysts expect production growth in Brazil's 25/26 season and Thailand's 24/25 season. India's early monsoons may lead to a production recovery. July's import volume is large, and sales in some regions in July were poor [8][9]. 3.5 Price Data - **Base Price Changes**: On August 21, 2025, the base prices of sugar in different regions and contracts showed various daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of sugar futures contracts had different daily and weekly changes, and there were also changes in the spreads between different contracts [11]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On August 22, 2025, sugar spot prices in different regions and the regional price spreads had specific daily and weekly changes [12]. - **Sugar Import Price Changes**: On August 22, 2025, the quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar had daily and weekly changes, as well as the price spreads compared to domestic prices [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.11%. The international raw sugar market maintained a low - level oscillating trend, while the domestic market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign markets. Although the inventory pressure of domestic sugar is not large and the double - festival stocking expectation provides support for sugar prices, factors such as a significant increase in imports, upcoming sugar mill openings in the north, and high expected output in the new season will limit the upside space of prices. The report suggests short - selling at high prices with light positions and controlling risks. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and the global supply is expected to be loose. However, there are concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows signs of improvement. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade. The demand is expected to increase due to double - festival stocking. The inventory pressure is not large, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new season's output is expected to be at a high level in the past four years [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - sell at high prices with light positions and control risks [6]. - **Future Concerns**: Consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US sugar declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 0.67%. As of August 12, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 1.41% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net positions increased by 10.99% month - on - month. The net positions of the top 20 holders of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 14,220 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 15,555 lots [9][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 15, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.94 cents per pound, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. As of August 22, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan per ton. As of August 18, 2025, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,706 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%; the in - quota price was 4,491 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,729 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%; the in - quota price was 4,509 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. As of August 18, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,364 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%; the out - of - quota profit was 149 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 16.41%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,346 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the out - of - quota profit was 126 yuan per ton [12][22][25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. In July, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [34][38][42]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.66%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [46][51]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week was presented, but no specific data was given [52]. - **Stock Market**: Information on the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but no specific data was given [57].

Group 1 - The core engine of the agricultural sugar and livestock fertilizer circular economy project in Beinan City, Heilongjiang Province, is the sugar processing project by Saibei Sugar Industry, which is advancing rapidly with a total investment of 596 million yuan [2] - The project will have a processing capacity of 600,000 tons of sugar beets annually, producing 85,000 tons of high-quality white sugar and 25,000 tons of molasses, with an expected annual output value exceeding 626 million yuan [2] - The project is a benchmark for implementing new productive forces and plays a crucial role in the "2+1" leading industries of Beinan, promoting the coordinated development of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [2] Group 2 - The steady progress of the Saibei Sugar Industry project will strengthen the processing transformation hub of the "agriculture-sugar-livestock-fertilizer" circular industry chain, injecting sustainable new momentum into the high-quality development of the local economy [3] - A modern agricultural industrial cluster based on resource endowment, innovation-driven, and green circular economy is rapidly emerging in Beinan [3]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 8 月 21 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 马来西亚进口 0.13 万吨;同期 21069062 项下进口预混粉 26.51 万吨，绝大部分 26.14 万吨从泰 国进口。 3、沐甜 21 日讯：广西:南宁中间商站台报价 6010 元/吨，报价上调 10 元，成交一般;南 宁仓库报价 5970 元/吨，报价不变，成交一般。柳州中间商站台报价 6030 元/吨，仓库报价 5980-6000 元/吨，报价不变，成交一般。广东:广州中间商湛江糖报价 6080 元/吨，报价不变， 成交一般。湛江中间商仓库报价暂无。 | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar inventory is expected to enter a stocking phase due to the supply peak in Brazil, leading to a recent decline in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is influenced by international prices, and Zhengzhou sugar futures prices are expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [11]. - In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile, and short - term traders can consider shorting at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,727 with a gain of 11 (0.19%), SR01 at 5,676 with a gain of 15 (0.26%), and SR05 at 5,633 with a gain of 14 (0.25%). The trading volume of SR09 decreased by 11,626 to 7,025, SR01 decreased by 17,130 to 153,382, and SR05 increased by 22 to 5,472. The open interest of SR09 decreased by 3,907 to 25,928, SR01 increased by 5,283 to 343,739, and SR05 increased by 171 to 26,617 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed some fluctuations. In places like Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, etc., prices changed, with Liuzhou at 6030 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Kunming at 5905 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. The basis for different regions ranged from 178 to 643 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 43 (down 1), SR09 - SR5 spread was 94 (down 3), and SR09 - SR01 spread was 51 (down 4) [5]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price was 4435 yuan/ton, the quota - out price was 5648 yuan/ton, with a spread of 382 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou prices and 402 yuan/ton compared to Rizhao prices. For Thai imports, the quota - in price was 4453 yuan/ton, the quota - out price was 5671 yuan/ton, with spreads of 359 yuan/ton and 379 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important Information**: From January to July 2025, China imported 179 million tons of sugar, including 168,400 tons of white sugar and 1.6125 billion tons of raw sugar. In July, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. From January to July 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 622,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 557,600 tons [7][8][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, due to the supply peak in Brazil, the global sugar inventory is expected to increase, and raw sugar prices have declined. Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are fast, and the inventory is low, but a large amount of imported sugar is entering the market, and domestic sugar prices are expected to follow the international trend [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, for unilateral trading, consider shorting at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [12][13][14].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report presents the latest fundamental data, macro and industry news of the sugar market, and provides production, consumption and import forecasts for the domestic and international sugar markets in the 24/25 and 25/26 sugar - crushing seasons. The trend strength of sugar is rated as neutral. 3) Summary by Directory **Fundamental Tracking** - The price of raw sugar is 16.3 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.06; the mainstream spot price is 5990 yuan per ton, with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5661 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 11 [1]. - The 91 spread is 55 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 9; the 15 spread is 42 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 4; the mainstream spot basis is 329 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 11 [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and the monsoon precipitation in India has weakened stage - by - stage. The sugar - crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil accelerated in the first half of July. Brazil exported 336 million tons of sugar in June, a year - on - year increase of 5%. China imported 74 million tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 million tons compared with the previous period [1]. **Domestic Market** - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to be 1.116 billion tons, consumption to be 1.58 billion tons, and imports to be 500 million tons. For the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production is expected to be 1.12 billion tons, consumption 1.59 billion tons, and imports 500 million tons [2]. - As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 1.116 billion tons, an increase of 120 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2]. - As of the end of July in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 324 million tons, a decrease of 34 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market expects a decline in the sugar - extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2]. **International Market** - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously 488 million tons) [3]. - As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.566 billion tons, a decrease of 159 million tons, and the cumulative MIX51.02% increased by 2.69 percentage points year - on - year [3]. - ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India to be 3.49 billion tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, compared with 2.95 billion tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, an increase of 540 million tons [3]. - OCSB data shows that the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.008 billion tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3]. **Trend Strength** The trend strength of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of COFCO Sugar Holdings Co., Ltd. experienced abnormal trading fluctuations, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days in August 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Trading Abnormalities - The company's stock price increased significantly on August 15, 18, and 19, 2025, leading to a classification of abnormal trading behavior as per the Shanghai Stock Exchange regulations [2][3]. - The company confirmed that there are no undisclosed significant information affecting the stock's trading fluctuations, based on self-inspection and consultation with its controlling shareholder, COFCO Group [4][5]. Group 2: Operational and Financial Status - The company reported that its production and operational activities are normal, with no significant changes in its main business despite a more complex external operating environment [4]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, estimating a range of 42.384 million to 49.076 million yuan, which represents a decrease of 37.174 million to 43.866 million yuan compared to the same period last year, equating to a year-on-year decline of 43.10% to 50.86% [2][8]. Group 3: Management and Disclosure - The company and its controlling shareholder have confirmed that there are no undisclosed major matters related to the company [5]. - During the period of stock price fluctuations, there were no transactions involving the company's stock by its controlling shareholders, directors, supervisors, or senior management [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - International market: With Brazil reaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to start accumulating. Recent reports show high sugar production and a record - high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, leading to a likely higher - than - expected sugar output and a decline in raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress [11]. - Domestic market: The sales of domestic sugar are fast, and inventories are low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. Domestic sugar prices are affected by international prices, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [11]. - Trading strategies: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile. In the short - term, consider short - selling at high prices. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. Sell out - of - the - money call options [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures market**: SR09 closed at 5,716 with a decline of 20 (-0.35%), SR01 at 5,661 (-11, -0.19%), and SR05 at 5,619 (-7, -0.12%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [5]. - **Spot market**: Today's sugar prices in different regions are as follows: 6040 in Liuzhou, 5905 in Kunming, 6220 in Wuhan, 5980 in Nanning, 6175 in Bayuquan, 6050 in Rizhao, and 6370 in Xi'an. The price in Wuhan decreased by 10, while others remained unchanged. The basis and monthly spreads are also provided [5]. - **Import profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - free price is 4435, and the out - of - quota price is 5648. For Thai imports, the quota - free price is 4453, and the out - of - quota price is 5671 [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important information**: - Brazil exported 188.32 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of August 2025, with a daily average of 17.12 million tons. In August 2024, the export volume was 392.08 million tons, with a daily average of 17.82 million tons [7]. - In July 2025, the sugarcane yield per hectare in central - southern Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and the recoverable sugar decreased by 4.8% [7]. - In July 2025, China's beverage output was 1796.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 11101.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [7]. - In July 2025, China's refined sugar output was 41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 982.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [8][10]. - In Yunnan, the average number of effective sugarcane stems per mu this year is 4200, an increase of 80 compared to last year. As of July, the average height of sugarcane is 127.2 cm, an increase of 3 cm compared to last year [10]. - **Logical analysis**: International sugar prices are affected by Brazil's high - peak supply. Domestic sugar prices are influenced by international prices due to the entry of imported sugar [11]. - **Trading strategies**: - **Single - side trading**: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile. Consider short - selling at high prices [12]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. - **Options trading**: Sell out - of - the - money call options [14]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments The report includes multiple charts, such as those showing monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales rates of domestic sugar, basis, and price spreads [15][20][24][26][28][29].