在关税政策愈发不明朗的背景下，周四，消费品巨头宝洁公司大幅下调全年销售和利润预期，并报告第三季度净销售额出现超预期下滑。 24日，宝洁公布2025全年业绩预估： 作为消费品行业的晴雨表，宝洁公司目前预计2025财年总净销售额将与上一财年大致持平，远低于此前2%至4%的增长目标。 宝洁从海外进口原材料、包装材料和部分成品到美国，而其在美国生产并出口到加拿大的商品也可能受到关税打击。 不过，发言人强调，宝洁在美国销售的产品中约90%是在国内生产的。尽管如此，宝洁此前已表示可能不得不提高价格以抵消关税影响。 宝洁并非唯一一家在当前经济环境中挣扎的消费品巨头。竞争对手Reckitt周三报告称，其在欧洲和北美的销售量有所下降。清洁纸巾制造商 Kimberly-Clark本周早些时候也下调了年度利润预期，并表示今年将因贸易关税而产生约3亿美元的成本。 然而，行业内部也出现了明显分化。雀巢和联合利华的季度销售额均超过市场预期，前者受益于包装食品业务的较高价格，后者则依靠多芬香皂 和凡士林等顶级品牌的强劲表现。 预计核心每股收益增幅+2％至+4％，此前预计+5％至+7％； 预计内生性收入大约+2％，此前预计+3％至+5％； ...

Core Insights - China's economic performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year, and a record high in import and export scale [3][5][10] - The 137th Canton Fair and the 5th China International Consumer Products Expo showcased strong international interest, with significant participation from global buyers [2][3][9] Group 1: Economic Performance - China's GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2023 was higher than anticipated, indicating robust economic recovery [3][5] - The import and export scale reached a historical high, exceeding 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters [3][6] Group 2: Trade Events - The 137th Canton Fair attracted 148,585 overseas buyers from 216 countries, marking a 20.2% increase compared to the previous session [2][3] - The 5th Consumer Products Expo featured over 1,700 companies and 4,200 brands, with participation from 70+ countries, setting a record for scale [3][9] Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - China is recognized as a stabilizing force in global trade amidst rising uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs [6][8][10] - The ASEAN region remains China's largest trading partner, with a 7.1% year-on-year growth in trade [6][10] Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - China is committed to expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, which is expected to create greater opportunities for global businesses [7][10] - The country aims to enhance its role in the global trade system by continuing to open up and share development opportunities [10]

Core Viewpoint - The UK businesses are optimistic about the Chinese consumer market, viewing it as a significant opportunity despite global trade challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Market Potential - The Chinese market presents vast opportunities, with a strong trust in UK brands and products among Chinese consumers [2]. - The Chinese government has been actively promoting consumption-driven economic growth through various policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [2]. - Over the past 20 years, Chinese consumers have matured in their purchasing habits, increasingly valuing brand stories and emotional connections, which benefits UK brands [2]. Group 2: Event Highlights - The fifth China International Consumer Products Expo features 27 UK brands, with the UK as the guest country, showcasing a large exhibition area [2]. - The theme for the UK pavilion is "British Craftsmanship in Hainan," blending traditional and innovative elements to provide an engaging experience for attendees [2]. - The expo, co-hosted by the Ministry of Commerce and the Hainan Provincial Government, is the largest consumer goods exhibition in the Asia-Pacific region, with over 1,700 companies and more than 4,100 brands participating from over 70 countries and regions [2].

Economic Data Release - The National Bureau of Statistics will release Q1 GDP and various economic data on April 16, including March industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales of consumer goods [1] - Zhejiang Merchants Securities predicts that the industrial production in March will remain stable, with an expected year-on-year growth rate of 5.5% for March and 5.7% for Q1 [1] Consumer Expo and Conferences - The 5th China International Consumer Products Expo will be held from April 13 to 18 in Hainan, featuring over 1,700 consumer enterprises and more than 4,100 brands from 71 countries and regions [2] - New exhibition areas for consumer technology will showcase products like smart connected vehicles and smart home technologies [2] - Other significant events include the World Internet Conference Asia-Pacific Summit in Hong Kong and the 137th Canton Fair in Guangzhou, which will have over 30,000 participating enterprises [2] Oil Price Adjustment - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open on April 17 at 24:00, with a projected decrease of 430 yuan per ton based on a reference crude oil price of $64.99 per barrel and a change rate of -8.79% [3] Stock Unlocking - A total of 32 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked from April 14 to 18, amounting to 711 million shares and a total market value of 12.676 billion yuan [4] - The peak unlocking day is April 14, with 11 companies unlocking shares worth 5.427 billion yuan, accounting for 42.83% of the total unlocking scale [4] - The companies with the highest unlocking values include Zhuozhao Point Glue (1.799 billion yuan), Weijie Chuangxin (1.753 billion yuan), and Knight Dairy (1.289 billion yuan) [4] New Stock Issuance - Three new stocks will be issued from April 14 to 18, with a total of approximately 85.4 million shares and expected fundraising of 4.274 billion yuan [7] - The specific stocks include Tianyouwei on April 14, and Zhongjie Automobile and Jiangshun Technology on April 15 [7]

2025.04. 11 作者 | 第一财经 下午市场零距离 第一财经《市场零距离》节目与中泰证券首席策略分析师徐驰就A股市场现状、板块投资机遇及出口 企业挑战进行了深入讨论。 在当下复杂的全球经济形势下，特朗普关税政策引发的市场动荡备受瞩目，A股市场的走向成为各方 关注焦点。为此，第一财经《市场零距离》节目就相关市场问题，与中泰证券首席策略分析师徐驰在 4月7日当天展开了深度对话，全面剖析A股市场现状、板块投资机遇以及出口企业面临的挑战与前 景。 徐驰指出，当前市场波动显著，从全球范围来看，A股市场展现出了一定韧性。尽管今日盘面呈现大 幅低开且整体走势较弱的态势，但对比全球主要市场，A股部分指数表现相对突出。例如，近期纳斯 本文字数：1484，阅读时长大约3分钟 达克连续三天大幅下跌，累计跌幅近15%，若从今年年初至今计算，在特朗普关税政策实施前就已有 近20%的跌幅，整体跌幅超30%。而A股指数的下跌幅度在全球市场中处于相对较好的水平。 综合来看，受全球经济形势的影响，A股市场目前处于调整阶段。特朗普关税政策不仅引发了全球流 动性风险，导致包括黄金在内的避险资产价格下跌，还对过去40年的全球贸易秩序造成冲击 ...

惠誉：预计2025年零售销售（不包括汽车和燃气）以及消费品收入将保持平稳或略微下降。 ...

美股仓位对基金经理的负贡献，或导致QDII产品加速切换国别仓位。券商中国记者注意到，以美国为核心仓 位的QDII基金目前处于业绩垫底状态，而近期关税引发的美股暴跌则进一步加剧了业绩压力，这使得国别资 产配置策略成为QDII基金业绩强弱的关键，考虑到许多QDII在基金合同上并未强制捆绑美股，甚至未设置美 股仓位的最低限度，这意味着QDII基金加速国别仓位切换或成为二季度基金经理的操作趋势，尤其是部分在 港股和A股处于严重低配的QDII基金。 更为关键的是，中国反制来了。4月4日，国务院关税税则委员会、商务部、海关总署接连发布多项对美反制 措施。其中，4月10日12时01分起，国务院关税税则委员会对原产于美国的进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基 础上加征34%关税。 相关人士判断，关税冲突可能吸引更多未上车的资金在市场波动中，择机南下购入港股。诺安基金国际部人士 认为，港股市场短期内仍将面临一定波动。不过，中长期来看，港股市场配置价值依旧较高。在国内扩内需、 稳消费等政策刺激下，消费行业业绩有望改善，促进消费股上涨，科技政策支持与产业趋势共振，科技板块有 望持续上涨 。 美股暴跌重创QDII净值 在极端恐慌情绪下，美 ...

Market News - US stock indices collectively declined, with the Nasdaq down 0.53%, Dow down 0.37%, and S&P 500 down 0.33% [1] - GameStop fell over 22%, while major tech stocks showed mixed results; Nvidia down over 2%, Google and Meta down over 1%, and Apple up over 1% [1] - Gold prices rose 1.21% to $3055.52 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures up 1.54% to $3069.1 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [1] - International oil prices saw slight increases, with WTI crude up 0.37% to $69.91 per barrel and Brent crude up 0.41% to $73.36 per barrel [1] Industry Insights - US robotics companies, including Tesla and Boston Dynamics, urged Congress to initiate a national robotics strategy to enhance global competitiveness in the robotics sector [2] - The market for embodied intelligence, which integrates AI into physical robots, is expected to grow significantly, potentially exceeding $1 trillion by 2026 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, released a digital transformation plan for the light industry, aiming for 90% adoption of digital design tools by 2027 [3] - The approval of TROP2 ADC drug for lung cancer marks a significant achievement for China's innovative pharmaceutical sector, which is increasingly recognized for its advancements [4] - The price of strontium carbonate has surged, reaching a peak of 15,500 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions from major international producers [5][6] Company Updates - Joyoung Co., Ltd. reported a 7.94% decline in revenue for 2024, totaling 8.849 billion yuan, with a net profit drop of 68.55% [7] - Air China announced a revenue increase of 18.14% for 2024, reaching 166.699 billion yuan, but reported a net loss of 237 million yuan [7] - Tigermed Consulting Co., Ltd. experienced a 10.58% decrease in revenue for 2024, totaling 6.603 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 79.99% [7] - Lier Chemical Co., Ltd. reported a 6.87% drop in revenue for 2024, amounting to 7.311 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 64.34% [7] - Xinghuo Technology announced a shareholder's plan to reduce holdings by up to 49.8442 million shares, representing 3% of the total share capital [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a "wish economy" driven by Lei Jun, where entrepreneurs are responding to consumer demands expressed in his social media comments, particularly in the context of product development and market opportunities [3][8][31]. Group 1: Lei Jun's Influence and the Wish Economy - Lei Jun has transformed his social media comment section into a "wish pool," where users express desires for various products, leading to entrepreneurial responses from others [3][9][31]. - The concept of the "wish economy" has led to the development of products like the dual-zone washing machine, which was created in response to user requests [5][6][24]. - Entrepreneurs like Chen Nian and Yu Minhong are capitalizing on this trend by launching products such as sanitary napkins, which were previously deemed unfeasible for Xiaomi to produce [11][12][15]. Group 2: Market Opportunities and Consumer Trust - The sanitary napkin market has seen increased attention due to quality concerns raised during events like the 315 Consumer Rights Day, creating a demand for trustworthy products [10][15][18]. - The rise in female consumer engagement, as indicated by a 65% year-on-year increase in orders on Douyin, highlights a significant market opportunity for products targeting women [15][17]. - The trust in Lei Jun's brand and his ability to deliver quality products has led to a perception of him as a "savior" figure in the consumer market, further driving the wish economy [23][25][31]. Group 3: Entrepreneurial Responses and Market Dynamics - Chen Nian's and Yu Minhong's ventures into the sanitary napkin market are strategic moves to capture a growing segment of female consumers and rebuild brand trust after previous product failures [16][18]. - The competitive landscape is shifting as companies leverage Lei Jun's influence to gain market traction, with a focus on quality and affordability [24][31]. - The success of Xiaomi's ecosystem, which includes investments in over 430 companies, provides a robust supply chain that supports the development of new products in response to consumer wishes [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight rating on the MSCI China Index, indicating a positive outlook for the Chinese market driven by advancements in AI technology [55]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the AI ASIC market is projected to grow from $12 billion in 2024 to $30 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 34% [55]. - The report notes that the recent performance of Hong Kong stocks has been strong, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has risen by 23.68% year-to-date, outperforming other major global indices [29][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of dynamic asset allocation during the valuation recovery of Chinese assets, suggesting a barbell strategy of "technology + dividends" to capture market opportunities while mitigating risks [29][28]. Economic Data Summary - In January, the U.S. CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 2.9%, while the PPI rose by 3.5%, also exceeding the forecast of 3.2% [5][8]. - The report indicates that U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in January, marking the largest decline since March 2023, attributed to adverse weather conditions and persistent inflation affecting consumer confidence [8]. - In China, the CPI rose by 0.5% year-on-year in January, with a significant increase in service and food prices due to the Spring Festival [13][14]. The PPI, however, decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting seasonal factors and supply conditions [14]. Fund Performance - The report details that the Ruiyuan China Stock Fund has achieved a one-year return of 56.26%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which returned 37.38% during the same period [32][28]. - The fund's holdings are concentrated in consumer discretionary and internet sectors, with top positions including Tencent Holdings and Pop Mart [34][32].