港口到港压力仍存，价格震荡偏弱 甲醇观点 甲醇日报 | 2025-07-09 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润670元/吨（-20）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1965元/吨（-20），内蒙北线基差192元/吨（-1），内蒙南线2020元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2280元/吨（-15），鲁 南基差107元/吨（+4）；河南2175元/吨（+0），河南基差2元/吨（+19）；河北2185元/吨（+0），河北基差72元/吨（+19）。 隆众内地工厂库存352280吨（+10730），西北工厂库存223500吨（+18000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单233250吨（-7450）， 西北工厂待发订单110400吨（-9100）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2402元/吨（-23），太仓基差29元/吨（-4），CFR中国280美元/吨（-2），华东进口价差-32元/吨 （-23），常州甲醇2400元/吨；广东甲醇2415元/吨（-20），广东基差42元/吨（-1）。隆众港口总库存673660吨（+3160）， 江苏港口库存333000吨（-23500），浙江港口库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The Iranian methanol plants are further resuming production, leading to an increase in overseas supply. The port basis is weak, and there is still a large pressure of arrivals in July. There are intentions to conduct maintenance on externally - purchased MTO units in late July, and the port is currently in an inventory - building cycle. However, there are expectations of winter maintenance of overseas natural gas - based methanol plants and the commissioning of externally - purchased methanol MTO units in the fourth quarter, presenting a situation of weak current conditions but strong future expectations. In the inland area, the operation rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, but the traditional downstream shows sufficient resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol plants is under no pressure [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - Includes multiple figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China, and import spreads (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [26][27][28] 3. Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - Relevant figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the operation rate of MTO/P (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland plants, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated units) [34][35][37] 4. Regional Price Spreads - Figures illustrate regional price spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [39][46][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [50][58] Market Data Inland Area - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 690 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton). Inland methanol prices: Inner Mongolia North Line is 1985 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), with a basis of 193 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan/ton); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2020 yuan/ton (unchanged); Linyi in Shandong is 2295 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton), with a basis of 103 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton); Henan is 2175 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 17 yuan/ton (down 23 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2185 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 53 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton). The inventory of inland plants is 352,280 tons (up 10,730 tons), and the inventory of plants in the Northwest is 223,500 tons (up 18,000 tons). The pending orders of inland plants are 233,250 tons (down 7,450 tons), and those of plants in the Northwest are 110,400 tons (down 9,100 tons) [1] Port Area - Methanol in Taicang is 2425 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), with a basis of 33 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton); CFR China is 282 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton), and the import spread in East China is - 9 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). Methanol in Changzhou is 2420 yuan/ton; methanol in Guangdong is 2435 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), with a basis of 43 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan/ton). The total port inventory is 673,660 tons (up 3,160 tons), the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 333,000 tons (down 23,500 tons), the inventory in Zhejiang ports is 176,500 tons (up 37,000 tons), and the inventory in Guangdong ports is 120,500 tons (down 13,500 tons). The operation rate of downstream MTO is 84.60% (down 2.19%) [2] Regional Price Spreads - The spread of Lubei - Northwest - 280 is - 25 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread of Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 110 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan/ton); the spread of Taicang - Lunan - 250 is - 120 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton); the spread of Lunan - Taicang - 100 is - 230 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton); the spread of Guangdong - East China - 180 is - 170 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton); the spread of East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 is - 55 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [2] Strategy - For the 9 - 1 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high [3]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周一尿素现货市场走势分化，主流地区价格波动幅度在-20～20元/吨，目 山东、 | 看涨 | | | 河南地区市场价格分别在1820元/吨、1810元/吨，日环比分别上涨10 元/吨、持平。 | | | | 基本面来看，尿素供应 平小幅回升，昨日行业日产量19.94万吨，日环比增0.35万 | | | | 吨。需求端跟进情绪有所放缓，农业需求 部有所跟进，工业下游 合 行业开始 | | | | 预收 季 款项，但目 行业开工 平仍偏 ，对尿素需求力度有限。昨日主流地 | | | | 区现货产销率分化明 ，行业平均产销率仅为38%。整体来看，尿素期货市场 时缺 | | | | 有效驱动，短期震荡思路对 。后续印标价格结 、出口政策及国内商品市场整 | | | | 体走势扰动仍存，关注出口及国 市场消息面影响。 | | | 业 纯碱 | 周一纯碱现货报价稳定，贸易商环节报价跟随盘面情绪有所波动。昨日沙河及周边 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the financing and progress of the Yulin Chemical 1,500 million tons/year coal-to-chemical project, emphasizing its significance in China's energy development strategy and its record-breaking financing achievements [1][3]. Financing and Project Details - The financing for the second phase of the project has surpassed 100 billion yuan, supported by 11 financial institutions including the China Development Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [2]. - The project has completed the procurement of all long-cycle equipment within 180 days, with 15 out of 16 process packages delivered and 25 out of 27 basic designs approved [3]. - The project is recognized as the largest coal chemical project in China and is a key initiative in the national energy development plan, focusing on high-end, diversified, and low-carbon coal chemical industry development [3]. Record Achievements - The financing approval for the project exceeded 100 billion yuan, with the largest single approval reaching 24 billion yuan, setting a new record for similar projects [3]. - The project has achieved a milestone by realizing unsecured credit financing, establishing a new benchmark for cooperation between banks and enterprises [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of financial institutions, particularly SPD Bank's Zhengzhou branch, in supporting the high-quality development of the manufacturing sector in Henan Province through targeted financial services and products [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Support for Manufacturing - SPD Bank Zhengzhou branch has provided over 14.8 billion yuan in loans to manufacturing enterprises in Henan Province this year, aligning with the provincial government's "Three-Year Action Plan for Building a Strong Manufacturing Province" [1]. - The bank has tailored comprehensive financial service solutions for leading companies like Xinyuan Chemical, providing over 2.1 billion yuan in credit support, including project loans and trade financing [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Empowerment - SPD Bank Zhengzhou branch has supported the food industry, particularly White Elephant Food Co., with over 1.6 billion yuan in supply chain financial support since 2025, enhancing the resilience and efficiency of the entire supply chain [3]. - The bank's financial services cover various aspects of the supply chain, including raw material processing and logistics, significantly boosting the competitiveness of the industry [3]. Group 3: Green Finance Initiatives - The bank has developed a comprehensive green finance service system, with a green credit balance of 26.7 billion yuan and 5.6 billion yuan disbursed since 2025, focusing on clean energy and environmental protection [4]. - SPD Bank Zhengzhou branch has financed a major photovoltaic component company with 144 million yuan, promoting advancements in the renewable energy sector [4]. Group 4: Digital and Intelligent Solutions - SPD Bank Zhengzhou branch has introduced flexible financing solutions for downstream users of Yutong Bus, addressing their financing challenges through innovative products like "Hui Chain Loan" [5][6]. - The bank has successfully provided 170 million yuan in loans under the "Yutong Equipment Loan" program, supporting over 360 end-users and enhancing both business scale and asset quality [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a weekly data briefing on the basic chemical industry, covering price and profit changes in various sectors such as polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical industries, as well as the performance of related listed companies [2][8][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance** - The basic chemical index had a weekly increase of 0.8%, a monthly increase of 3.3%, a quarterly increase of 3.1%, and an annual increase of 15.9% as of July 4, 2025. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical had a weekly increase of 1.3%, Baofeng Energy had a weekly decrease of 1.5%, Satellite Chemical had a weekly increase of 4.0%, and Huarun Hengsheng had a weekly increase of 1.0% [8] - In terms of profitability, Wanhua Chemical's estimated归母净利润 in 2025 is 13966 million yuan, Baofeng Energy's is 12360 million yuan, Satellite Chemical's is 7004 million yuan, and Huarun Hengsheng's is 4265 million yuan [8] - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - The average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI this week were 16940, 15220, and 12000 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 100, - 430, and + 775 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 3718, 3061, and 897 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of + 162, - 116, and + 1177 yuan/ton [2][8] - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - Raw material prices: The average prices of ethane, propane,动力煤, and naphtha this week were 1198, 4071, 470, and 4108 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 25, - 118, + 0, and - 114 yuan/ton [2][8] - Product prices and profits: The average price of polyethylene was 7946 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1365, 2091, and 189 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 50, - 19, and + 94 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 7120 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were 56, 1742, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 94, - 11, and + 101 yuan/ton [2] - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2242, 1797, 4020, and 2349 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 28, - 5, + 60, and - 32 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 352, 144, - 186, and 6 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of + 16, - 12, + 28, and + 2 yuan/ton [2][10] 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trend** - No detailed content provided in the given text - **2.2 Polyurethane Plate** - Analyzes the price and profit trends of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI [2][8] - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Plate** - Discusses the price trends of raw materials such as ethane, propane,动力煤, and naphtha, as well as the profit situations of different production processes for polyethylene and polypropylene [2][8] - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Plate** - Covers the price and profit trends of coal - chemical products such as synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid [2][10]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission is accelerating the implementation of policies to address "involution" competition, focusing on six major industries including refining, steel, and coal chemical [2] - Specific measures for different industries will be introduced to resolve structural contradictions, with traditional overcapacity industries like refining and steel focusing on eliminating outdated capacity for optimization [2] - New energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries will emphasize self-regulation to guide rational investment and avoid vicious competition, ensuring orderly development despite their promising prospects [2] Group 2 - Shandong Province has introduced a plan with 20 high-value measures to stabilize foreign investment, aligning with national strategies while incorporating local characteristics [4] - The plan aims to expand autonomous opening in sectors like film production and telecommunications, encouraging foreign investment in biopharmaceuticals and clinical trials [4][5] - Shandong will enhance investment promotion through major events and targeted招商, while also establishing a mechanism for tracking significant foreign investment projects [5] Group 3 - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has been authorized to act as the RMB clearing bank in Turkey, facilitating the use of RMB for local settlements and transactions [6] - This development is expected to enhance bilateral trade and financial connectivity between China and Turkey, supporting initiatives like the Belt and Road [7] - The establishment of the clearing bank is a significant step for the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which is the largest Chinese commercial bank in Turkey [8]

Report industry investment rating - The report gives a neutral investment rating for the methanol industry [4] Core view of the report - Iranian methanol plants are gradually resuming production, and the port inventory accumulation rate has slowed down. After the paper cargo delivery in late June, the port basis has been weakening. There is still pressure on future arrivals, and MTO plants plan to conduct maintenance in July, so the port is still in a short - term inventory accumulation cycle. In the inland area, the operation rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, but the traditional downstream shows strong resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol plants is under no pressure. The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting on July 1 mentioned promoting the "orderly exit of backward production capacity", but there is no specific document yet, which requires close attention [3] Summary according to relevant catalogs I. Methanol basis & inter - period structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [7][11][23] II. Methanol production profit, MTO profit, import profit - Figures are provided for Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [27][28][32] III. Methanol operation and inventory - Information includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated plants) [35][36][38] IV. Regional price differences - Regional price differences are shown in figures such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan and Chongqing - 200 [40][46][49] V. Traditional downstream profit - Figures display the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][56][58]

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee emphasizes the deepening of the construction of a unified national market, with a focus on the basic requirements of "Five Unifications and One Opening" [1][2]. Group 1: Five Unifications and One Opening - The basic requirements of "Five Unifications and One Opening" include unifying market basic systems, infrastructure, government behavior standards, market supervision and law enforcement, and resource markets, while continuously expanding domestic and international openness [2][5]. - The shift from "Five Unifications and One Breaking" to "Five Unifications and One Opening" reflects a strategic upgrade, indicating a transition from breaking down barriers to enabling openness and collaboration [3][4]. Group 2: Focus Areas and Implementation - The meeting highlights the need to focus on key challenges such as regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, enhancing product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [6][11]. - The establishment of foundational systems for the unified national market is underway, including the introduction of the "Fair Competition Review Regulations" to ensure equal participation in market competition [4][5]. Group 3: International Trade and Market Integration - The emphasis on expanding domestic and international openness is crucial for the construction of a unified national market, with a focus on integrating domestic and foreign trade to facilitate the flow of goods and resources [8][9]. - The meeting stresses the importance of promoting high-level openness and the integration of domestic and international markets as a pathway to enhance economic resilience [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company is accelerating its digital transformation by exploring innovative driving forces, technological empowerment, and ecological collaboration, centered around a "1+6+N" digital architecture to support its transition [1] Group 1: Innovation-Driven Smart Applications - Innovation is identified as the core driving force for digital transformation, with the company actively constructing benchmark smart application scenarios in both production and marketing [2] - In production, the company utilizes an intelligent manufacturing platform that integrates 5G, IoT, and big data technologies for deep interconnection and dynamic control, enhancing production efficiency and product quality [2] - In marketing, the company promotes digital agriculture through a comprehensive data platform that allows farmers to manage their operations remotely, achieving a yield increase of approximately 10%-15% compared to traditional fertilization methods [2] Group 2: Technological Empowerment for Green Development - The company prioritizes green development as a core goal of its digital transformation, employing advanced sensors and IoT technologies for real-time monitoring and data collection in production [3] - A big data analysis platform is used for intelligent diagnostics and optimization of production processes, which also helps in preemptively warning about equipment failures [3] - The company leverages digital tools for R&D, utilizing virtual simulation technology to model product performance and market trends, thereby accelerating new product development [3] Group 3: Ecological Collaboration for Industry Digital Transformation - As a "chain master" enterprise, the company enhances operational efficiency across the supply chain through business collaboration and the co-construction of digital platforms [4] - A procurement platform has been established to integrate supplier resources, resulting in a 40% reduction in procurement cycles and a 30% increase in inventory turnover [4] - The company has developed a smart logistics platform that allows downstream customers to place orders via mobile, facilitating real-time tracking and management of transportation [4] Group 4: Overall Efficiency Improvements - The overall logistics dispatch efficiency of the company has improved by 38.7%, while transportation costs have decreased by 26.2%, further enhancing the efficiency of the entire industry chain [5] - The company plans to focus on "lighthouse factories" and AI large models, aiming to strengthen data processing and analysis capabilities in the chemical sector [5]