Core Viewpoint - Guo Bochun, chairman of Yaqi International and Tianyu Digital Science, has been criminally detained for suspected embezzlement and abuse of power, which has raised concerns regarding the governance of both companies [2][4][6]. Group 1: Company Announcements - Both Yaqi International and Tianyu Digital Science announced that the legal issues concerning Guo Bochun are personal matters and do not affect the companies [8]. - Following Guo's detention, Yaqi International appointed Liu Bingyan to temporarily assume the roles of chairman and legal representative [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yaqi International expects its net profit for the first half of 2025 to be between 730 million and 930 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 170% to 244% [8][9]. - Tianyu Digital Science anticipates a net profit of 18 million to 26 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 369.52% to 489.30% [8][11]. Group 3: Company Background - Yaqi International is engaged in potassium salt mining and fertilizer production, being one of the first Chinese companies to develop overseas potassium salt resources [8]. - Tianyu Digital Science has developed multiple enterprise-level AI models and established three major business platforms: AI marketing SaaS, mobile application distribution PaaS, and spatial intelligence MaaS [9].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Yaqi International, Guo Baichun, has been criminally detained for suspected embezzlement and abuse of power, but the company asserts that this matter is personal and unrelated to the company's operations [2][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - Yaqi International announced that Guo Baichun was detained on July 18, following an investigation by the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Supervisory Committee [2]. - The company confirmed that its production and operations are normal, with the management team continuing to oversee daily operations [4]. - The board of directors is functioning normally, and the company is making steady progress in production and construction [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yaqi International expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a range of 730 million to 930 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 170% to 244% [4]. - The growth in performance is attributed to stable production of potash fertilizer, increased output compared to the same period last year, and a flexible sales strategy that targets both domestic and international markets [6]. - The company also noted that the rise in potash fertilizer prices, both internationally and domestically, contributed to an increase in sales prices and gross profit margins for the first half of the year [6]. Group 3: Shareholder Changes - China Agricultural Production Materials Group Co., Ltd., a shareholder with over 5% stake, plans to transfer 46.2026 million shares (5% of total shares) to Huineng Holdings Group Co., Ltd., which will become the largest shareholder of Yaqi International if the transaction is completed [6][7].

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 25 million and 30 million yuan, compared to a loss of 22.34 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 30 million and 35 million yuan, compared to a loss of 27.35 million yuan in the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share are estimated to be between -0.0407 yuan and -0.0488 yuan, compared to -0.0364 yuan per share last year [1] Reasons for Performance Changes - Sales revenue increased year-on-year, driven by the successful launch of the Le You series and Xiang Liang You series, which showed excellent performance in yield and disease resistance, leading to higher average prices [1] - Corn seed sales revenue declined due to oversupply in the domestic corn seed market, increased inventory pressure, and intensified market competition [1] - The market performance of the transgenic variety Tie 391K was below expectations, resulting in increased return volumes [1] - The company reduced sales of low-margin products and decreased production of raw materials and intermediates to improve safety and environmental standards, impacting sales revenue [1] - Overall market conditions for raw materials declined, leading to price decreases for some products year-on-year [1] - Increased depreciation from construction projects being put into use and higher environmental expenditures also contributed to the performance changes [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Urea domestic demand is weak, and exports support the upward movement of the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the market is waiting for new drivers. Attention should be paid to news - related disturbances [1][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and moved high today, with a slight decline in the afternoon and a small gain. Upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers replenished at low prices, resulting in good market transactions. This week's urea production declined, but next week, most factories will resume production, and production will increase month - on - month. Northern agricultural demand is near the end, with sporadic purchases. After compound fertilizer factories started autumn fertilizer production, the operating load increased slightly. Currently, compound fertilizer factories have taken 30% of nitrogen fertilizer, and there is still an expectation of further purchases. However, due to the dominance of advance payments, the finished - product inventory in factories has increased, and the demand for urea has strong elasticity and limited support. Inventory continued to decline this period, mainly due to regional agricultural demand and export orders, but the decline rate has slowed down [1][11] Futures Market - The main 2509 contract of urea opened at 1750 yuan/ton, fluctuated strongly during the day, and finally closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. The trading volume was 188,727 lots, a decrease of 9,285 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 3,019 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,273 lots. Qisheng Futures' net long positions increased by 1,437 lots, and Zheshang Futures' net long positions decreased by 519 lots. CITIC Futures' net short positions increased by 1,642 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' net short positions increased by 3,271 lots. On July 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,523, a decrease of 107 from the previous trading day, all from Anhui Zhongneng [2] Spot Market - After downstream buyers purchased at low prices and factories lowered prices to attract orders, the order - receiving situation was fair. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1730 - 1770 yuan/ton, with a few factories quoting slightly higher [3] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of basis, today's mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. On July 18, 2025, the national daily urea production was 197,400 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 84.03% [7][10]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the investment value of lithium batteries and fertilizers, highlighting that the company is a leader in both sectors in China [1] - The company has a high import dependency of 67% for its main products, indicating potential risks and opportunities in sourcing [1] - The company plans to acquire overseas mineral assets, which could enhance its supply chain and reduce import reliance [1] Group 2 - The gross profit margin for fertilizer products remains above 50%, showcasing strong profitability in this segment [1] - Over the past four years, the production capacity and sales of lithium battery materials have grown at an annual rate exceeding 30%, indicating robust market demand [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the stabilization and recovery of prices for both lithium battery materials and fertilizers [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints Urea - The main logic for the stabilization of the urea futures market is the improved demand - side expectations, but the high - supply pressure still limits the rebound height. Future demand improvement expectations, along with partial device overhauls, support the futures price [5]. Polyolefin - For PP and PE, there is a lack of strong driving forces. The static situation shows a double - decline in supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and weak apparent demand. However, there are expectations of demand improvement for PE in late July. Suggested strategies include range - bound operations for both PP and PE, and taking profit when the LP spread reaches around 250 [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different outlooks. PX may be boosted in the short - term, PTA is expected to be supported in the short - term, MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, short - fiber has limited driving forces, and bottle - chip has expectations of supply - demand improvement [48]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to expectations of marginal supply contraction and supply uncertainties caused by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band - trading strategy [52]. Methanol - The inland methanol market is expected to see an increase in production in late July. The port market faces pressure from expected arrivals and planned MTO overhauls, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, there is limited supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals, but high profits stimulate high production. It is recommended that previous long - position holders temporarily exit and wait and see. For PVC, the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in July, but its own driving force is limited. For styrene, the supply - demand is marginally repaired, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak. Short - term price support may come from the overall positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market [86]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On July 17, the 01 contract closed at 1718 yuan/ton (up 0.47% from July 16), the 05 contract at 1730 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), the 09 contract at 1743 yuan/ton (up 0.58%), and the methanol - main contract at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%) [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton on July 17 (up 29.41% from July 16), the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was - 13 yuan/ton (down 116.67%), and the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was 25 yuan/ton (up 8.70%) [2]. - **Main Positions**: On July 17, the long - position of the top 20 was 110750 (down 1.28% from July 16), the short - position of the top 20 was 123632 (up 1.78%), and the long - to - short ratio was 0.90 (down 3.00%) [3]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, with only slight changes in a few items such as动力煤港口(秦皇岛) (up 0.32%) and合成氨(山东) (down 0.33%) [4]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed minor fluctuations, with some prices decreasing slightly [4]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production decreased slightly on July 18 compared to July 17. Weekly data showed a decrease in domestic urea production, an increase in device overhaul losses, a decrease in factory inventory, and an increase in port inventory [5]. Polyolefin - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 17, L2601 closed at 7235 yuan/ton (up 0.14% from July 16), L2509 at 7215 yuan/ton (up 0.01%), PP2601 at 7016 yuan/ton (up 0.11%), and PP2509 at 7020 yuan/ton (up 0.10%). Some spot prices remained unchanged [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories increased, and the operating rates of some devices and downstream industries decreased [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased slightly. Downstream polyester product prices and cash - flows showed various changes, with some prices rising and some cash - flows changing significantly [48]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different segments in the polyester industry chain showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [48]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, Brent crude oil was at 69.52 US dollars/barrel (up 1.46% from July 17), WTI at 67.55 US dollars/barrel (up 0.01%), and there were also changes in various price spreads [52]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Logic**: Supply decreased due to factors such as a decline in US crude oil inventories and production cuts in the Iraqi Kurdish region. Market focus has shifted to supply - side risks [52]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, MA2601 closed at 2438 yuan/ton (up 0.16% from July 16), MA2509 at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%), and there were changes in various regional price spreads [73]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased slightly, while port and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries also changed [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: For PVC and caustic soda, futures and spot prices showed minor changes, and there were also changes in price spreads [76]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and its downstream industries changed, and inventory levels also showed different trends [79][80][81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, the price of pure benzene and styrene and their related price spreads changed. For example, the price of benzene - ethylene in the East China spot market decreased [85]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates showed different trends, with some operating rates decreasing [85][86].

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 18 日星期五 | | | --- | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四尿素主力合约 2509 期价上涨 9 元至 1743 元/吨，华中主流地 ...

Group 1: Company Strategy and Industry Positioning - The company focuses on a "resource + industrial chain" development strategy, emphasizing the integration of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer production to build sustainable competitive advantages [2][3] - The nitrogen fertilizer chain is based on salt mine resources, creating a complete "salt-alkali-fertilizer" industrial chain, with projects in Hubei and Guangxi aimed at achieving self-sufficiency in nitrogen resources [3][4] - The phosphorus fertilizer chain utilizes phosphate rock resources, with plans to extend into high-value areas such as new energy materials, enhancing growth potential [3][5] Group 2: Production Base and Competitive Advantages - The company has established production bases across China, including Hubei, Sichuan, and Northeast regions, ensuring stable raw material supply and cost advantages [3][4] - New bases are being developed in Guangxi and Xinjiang to serve the South China and Southeast Asia markets, with an existing base in Malaysia for regional supply stability [3][5] Group 3: Project Developments and Impact - The 700,000-ton ammonia project in Hubei is progressing, with construction completed and equipment installation underway, expected to enhance product profitability and market competitiveness [4][5] - The company owns three phosphate mines in Sichuan, with ongoing projects to optimize resource utilization and increase production capacity [5][6] Group 4: Market Demand and Sales Performance - The demand for compound fertilizers remains strong due to national food security policies, with the company reporting steady growth in sales during Q1 2025 [5][6] - Future growth in compound fertilizer sales is anticipated through enhanced supply chain advantages, product upgrades, and improved marketing strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The decision of Europe to abandon Russian natural gas has negatively impacted European industry, according to President Putin [1] Group 1: Impact on European Industry - President Putin highlighted that the abandonment of Russian natural gas has led to a series of negative consequences for European industry [1] - The refusal to use Russian fertilizers is seen as contrary to European agricultural interests and is described as a foolish decision that could lead to rising food prices in Europe [1]

Group 1: Report Introduction - Report title: Urea 2507 Contract Delivery Analysis [1] - Release date: July 17, 2025 [1] - Research institution: Haizheng Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Delivery Information Summary - Urea 07 contract has undergone 6 deliveries since listing, with the contract in Henan and Hebei mainly at a discount to the spot [2][7] - UR2507 contract delivery settlement price is 1748 yuan/ton, with a Henan spot premium of 92 yuan/ton and a Hebei spot premium of 42 yuan/ton, and the basis is within a reasonable range [2][7] - UR2507 delivery pairing is about 1310 lots, with a nominal delivery volume of about 26,200 tons, an increase of about 791 lots compared to the 2506 contract and 1096 lots compared to last year's 07 contract [2][13] Group 3: Warehouse Receipt and Seat Distribution Overview - This year's warehouse receipt volume is significantly higher than the same period in previous years, but it has gradually declined in recent months, and the enterprise selling pressure has eased [3][16] - As of the last trading day in July, the urea warehouse receipt volume is about 2630, a decrease of 3292 compared to the 2506 contract and an increase of 1562 compared to the 2407 contract [3][16] - UR2507 contract warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in factories such as Yuntu Holdings and Zhongnong Holdings, with Yuntu Holdings accounting for the highest proportion at about 36.5% [3][19] - In terms of provincial distribution, Sichuan has the largest warehouse receipt volume, accounting for about 37%, followed by Hebei and Anhui [3][19] - Warehouse receipts are mainly concentrated in factories, accounting for about 96% of the total [3][19] - Sellers' seats are relatively concentrated, with Changjiang Futures accounting for the highest proportion at about 43%, followed by Yide Futures at about 34% [21] - Buyers' seats are more dispersed, with Guotai Junan accounting for the largest proportion at about 23%, followed by Guotou Futures and Yong'an Futures at about 15% [21] Group 4: Later Assessment - The UR2507&2509 spread mainly shows a narrowing trend, with limited arbitrage space [4] - The UR2509&2601 spread is mainly based on the reverse arbitrage logic in the short term, and the space for further narrowing is also limited [4] Group 5: Historical Data Analysis - The delivery volume of the main contracts is large and stable, while that of non - main contracts is relatively low [10] - This year's delivery volume of each contract is higher than the same period in history, and the delivery volume in the first and second quarters has increased significantly [10] - It is estimated that the delivery volume in the second half of the year is expected to further increase [10] Group 6: Basis and Arbitrage Analysis - This year's basis in Henan for the urea 07 contract is weaker than the same period last year, and there was basis discount in some periods [24] - The estimated one - month fixed delivery cost of urea is about 30 - 50 yuan/ton, with limited risk - free arbitrage opportunities [25] - In the medium and long term, as the urea market remains loose, enterprises' willingness to participate in delivery may increase [25]