Core Viewpoint - Urea futures prices have shown a downward trend in early September, with a weak spot market and a bearish sentiment prevailing due to a lack of significant positive drivers [1][2]. Supply Summary - Despite some maintenance leading to a temporary drop in daily production to 190,000 tons, overall domestic urea supply remains relatively high [2]. - The capacity utilization rate is at 79.34%, up 1.24 percentage points from the previous period, with expectations for further increases as maintenance decreases [2]. - Domestic urea companies' total inventory stands at 1.1327 million tons, a 50% year-on-year increase, indicating significant inventory pressure [2]. - Production profits for urea have declined significantly, with new gas flow bed production profits around 300 CNY/ton, traditional fixed bed profits at 50 CNY/ton, and natural gas process profits at 150 CNY/ton [2]. Demand Summary - Urea apparent demand from January to July was 41 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons or 8% year-on-year [3]. - Agricultural demand is currently in a seasonal lull, with compound fertilizer companies holding high finished goods inventory and low operating rates [3]. - Industrial demand, particularly from plywood and melamine sectors, remains weak due to sluggishness in the real estate industry, leading to lower operating rates in plywood factories [3]. - Urea futures prices have dropped below 1,700 CNY/ton, with expectations for continued weak fluctuations in prices due to the prevailing supply-demand imbalance [3].

Group 1: Fertilizer Import Overview - Ethiopia is the largest fertilizer importer in Africa, expected to purchase approximately 1.97 million tons of nitrogen-phosphorus compound fertilizers and urea in 2024, with over 90% of imports managed by the Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) [1] - Kenya, as the largest economy in East Africa, will import 834,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium (NPK) accounting for 25.17%, diammonium phosphate (DAP) 20.91%, and urea 15.44% [1] - Zambia is projected to import 797,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with urea making up the highest share at 36% [2] - Nigeria, the largest economy in West Africa, is expected to import 738,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with ammonium sulfate comprising 62.23% of imports [2] - Côte d'Ivoire will import 576,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with urea accounting for 31.29% and potassium chloride 23.66% [3] Group 2: Fertilizer Export and Processing - Kenya is expected to export 117,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, representing 14% of its total imports [1] - Zambia will re-export 109,000 tons of fertilizers, which is 13.7% of its total imports [2] - Côte d'Ivoire's fertilizer re-exports are projected to total 212,000 tons, with most imports processed into compound fertilizers for domestic use or export to neighboring countries [3] Group 3: Key Companies Involved - In Ethiopia, the EABC is the primary entity responsible for fertilizer procurement and distribution [1] - Major companies involved in Kenya's fertilizer import and processing include CFAO Agriculture, MEA, ETG Export Trading Company, and Fertiplant East Africa [1] - In Zambia, key players include the Zambia National Commercial Company (NCZ), FSG Zambia, Zambian Fertilizers, and United Capital Fertilizers [2] - Nigeria's fertilizer industry is dominated by Notore, Indorama, and Dangote [2] - Côte d'Ivoire's fertilizer mixing companies include Agro West Africa, Seap-CI, Sea Invest, Solevo, and Yara [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Potash Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the potash fertilizer industry, focusing on the supply and pricing dynamics influenced by geopolitical events and market conditions [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Supply Status**: - China's potash supply remains stable in the short term, with approximately 110,000 tons of potassium chloride shipped via the China-Europe Railway in September, marking the highest volume in three months despite being slightly below average levels [1][5]. - The closure of the Poland-Belarus border has not significantly impacted potash deliveries yet, but it may lead to reduced shipping volumes in the future [2][17]. 2. **Price Trends**: - Port prices for potassium chloride have slightly decreased by about 200 RMB per ton, reflecting weak market demand and the impact of state reserve releases [1][7]. - The current guidance price for 62% potassium chloride is 3,150 RMB per ton at ports, providing a market support level [8]. 3. **Demand Dynamics**: - There is a notable differentiation in demand for various fertilizers; urea demand remains relatively strong, while potash and phosphate fertilizers face pressure [1][9]. - The agricultural planting guidance influences fertilizer demand, with low-priced fertilizers seeing increased demand, particularly for high-value crops that require more potash [11]. 4. **Future Cost Projections**: - Import costs for potash are expected to rise in Q4 and into 2026, with anticipated contract prices ranging from 340 to 350 USD per ton [3][5]. - The average monthly import volume is expected to stabilize around 150,000 to 200,000 tons, with September's volume being below this average [6]. 5. **Market Challenges**: - Domestic urea production is facing oversupply issues, leading to prices that are lower than international levels, creating a vicious cycle of price reductions among local manufacturers [10]. - The nitrogen fertilizer association is actively discussing solutions, but significant improvements are not expected in the short term due to strong policy influences [10]. 6. **Impact of New Projects**: - The expansion of the Laos project by Asia Potash International to 5 million tons will significantly impact the Asia-Pacific market, although it is not expected to drastically affect global prices in the short term [3][16]. 7. **Long-term Price Stability**: - Future price fluctuations for potash are anticipated to increase in frequency but with reduced amplitude, leading to a more stable price environment compared to previous years [14][18]. 8. **Key Factors to Monitor**: - Attention should be focused on the outcomes of major contract negotiations and actual port delivery volumes, as these will significantly influence market trends [20]. Additional Important Insights - The agricultural policy adjustments post-pandemic have led to a decrease in overall fertilizer usage, impacting demand across various types of fertilizers [11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their effects on supply chains remain a critical area for monitoring, particularly regarding the Belarus and Russia potash supply dynamics [2][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market opened flat and trended lower today, with weak intraday oscillations. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures showed weak rebound. The market sentiment was poor. The high - level supply and high inventory situation restricted the upward movement of urea prices. Although there was a chance of rebound later, the loose market pattern had not reversed, and the market lacked driving forces [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened flat and trended lower, with weak intraday oscillations. The spot price continued to fall, and the futures rebounded weakly. The market sentiment was poor. The daily urea production was expected to remain at a high level, suppressing the urea price. The demand side saw an increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories, but the growth rate slowed down. The terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was high. The inventory continued to increase, which restricted the upward movement of urea prices. There was a chance of rebound later, with attention paid to the pressure around 1730 yuan/ton, but the loose pattern had not reversed [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1681 yuan/ton, closed at 1670 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.65%. The trading volume was 286,823 lots (+5,335 lots). Among the top 20 institutional positions, long positions increased by 3,015 lots, and short positions increased by 2,691 lots. On September 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,188, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Spot**: The spot price continued to decline. The ex - factory transaction price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton. Some factories in Hebei quoted 1670 - 1680 yuan/ton, but these high - priced factories mainly fulfilled export orders [1][4]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 20 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [8]. - **Supply Data**: On September 18, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,000 tons, an increase of 5,400 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.82% [9]. - **Downstream Data**: From September 12 to September 18, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous week [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Asia Potash International, is making significant progress on its second and third 1 million tons/year potash fertilizer projects, with both projects entering the later stages of mining construction [1] Group 1: Project Progress - The second 1 million tons/year potash fertilizer project has completed the main inclined shaft (3) and is currently reinforcing the shaft and installing the belt transportation system [1] - The third 1 million tons/year potash fertilizer project is advancing in the electromechanical installation phase, as well as tunnel reinforcement and preparation for the mining area, following the completion of the inclined roadway, main inclined shaft, and two ventilation shafts [1] - The company aims to achieve production as soon as possible for both projects [1]

尿素日报 | 2025-09-18 内需偏弱，厂内库存继续累积 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-17，尿素主力收盘1681元/吨（-5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1660 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1650元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1650元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-31 元/吨（+5）；河南基差：-21元/吨（+5）；江苏基差：-31元/吨（+5）；尿素生产利润120元/吨（+0），出口利润1163 元/吨（-4）。 供应端：截至2025-09-17，企业产能利用率79.34%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为54.94 万吨（-7.15）。 需求端：截至2025-09-17，复合肥产能利用率37.82%（+4.74%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.38%（-3.60%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，山东河南价格跌至1580元/吨后成交好转，厂家上调报价后成交一般。目前部分 地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥厂拿货积极性不高，逢低采购 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of September 17, 2025, Yara International (000893) closed at 37.14 yuan, down 3.91%, with a trading volume of 172,200 hands and a transaction amount of 644 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Yara International's main revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.522 billion yuan, an increase of 48.54% year-on-year [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 855 million yuan, up 216.64% year-on-year [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a single-quarter main revenue of 1.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.0% [5] - The gross profit margin was 57.5%, ranking first in the fertilizer industry [5] Group 2: Market Activity - On September 17, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 23.7854 million yuan, accounting for 3.7% of the total transaction amount [1][2] - Retail investors had a net inflow of 1.4126 million yuan, representing 0.22% of the total transaction amount [1][2] - Over the past five days, the stock experienced fluctuations, with a peak closing price of 38.65 yuan on September 16, 2025, and a subsequent decline [2] Group 3: Financing and Margin Trading - On September 17, 2025, the financing balance was 628 million yuan, with a net financing purchase of 23.037 million yuan [3] - The margin trading balance stood at 634 million yuan, with a margin balance of 6.0464 million yuan [3] - The stock had a total of 162,800 shares in margin trading, with no shares sold short on that day [3] Group 4: Industry Comparison - Yara International's total market value is 34.319 billion yuan, significantly higher than the industry average of 18.672 billion yuan [5] - The company ranks 4th in total market value and 5th in net profit within the fertilizer industry [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 20.07, which is lower than the industry average of 41.22, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed resilience with all three major indices rebounding after a dip, indicating a potential for new investment opportunities amidst market fluctuations [1][2] - Various sectors performed differently, with multi-financial, optical electronics, photovoltaic equipment, and batteries showing strong performance, while precious metals, commercial retail, fertilizers, and tourism faced declines [1][2] - The inflow of global funds into the A-share market is supported by a shift of household savings towards capital markets, creating a continuous source of incremental funds [1] Group 2 - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with a focus on policy, funding, and external market changes [1] - The current valuation of A-shares remains attractive in the medium to long term, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition and stimulating demand being crucial for market performance [1] - The performance of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index suggests an acceleration along the five-day moving average, indicating a potential upward trend [2]

成文日期：20250912 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 载 Hour 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250912）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下跌，收盘价为 1663 元/吨，最高达 1676 元/吨，最低为 1661 元/吨,成交量 12.5 万 手，较上日持平，持仓量 30.1 万手，较上日增加 0.8 万手。 表 1：尿素期货当日行情表 20250912 1：尿素主力合约分时图 | 合约名称 最新 涨跌 涨幅8 持仓量 目增仓 成交量 开盘 最高 最低 | | --- | | 尿素2509 ----------------- 1336 - 1583 - 1568 - 1578 | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2601 M | 图 2：尿素主力合约日线级别图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 图片来源：国金期货 wh ...

持续弱势 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 17 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内偏弱震荡，现货收单热情不及昨日，价格小涨后成交不 畅，行情稳定为主。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂成交价格范围多 在 1600-1630 元/吨，河北部分工厂报价 1680-1690 元/吨，但高报价工厂主要执 行出口集港订单。尿素日产维持在 19 万吨左右进行，一方面山西尿素装置技改， 另一方面阅兵检修减产，前期产量有下滑，但随着装置复产及产能的投放，日产 依然预计偏高位运行，压制尿素价格。需求端，价格跌至低位后，下游拿货情绪 转好。复合肥工厂开工率偏低主要一方面终端需求疲软，前期备货已近 78 成， 另一方面厂内成品库存高企。虽然目前工厂利润尚且可观，但企业依然以库存去 化为重点，后续高位开工的几率不大。本期库存依然表现为增加，且目前库存高 企，大幅高于往年同期，制约尿素价格上行。整体来说，盘面筑底中，后续有反 弹机会，上方关注 1730 元/吨附近压力，但宽松格局尚未逆转，市场缺乏驱动。 【期现行情】 【冠通研究】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1685 元/吨开盘，低开低走，日内偏弱震荡， 最终收于 16 ...