美国对伊朗三处核设施发动袭击后，6月22日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，美国袭击伊朗核设施"令人发 指"，将会产生"持久后果"，同日，伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡。本轮伊以冲突爆发进入第11天， 局势持续升级，而在资本市场上，6月23日，A股军工股再度活跃，航运股集体走高，截至午盘沪指报 3365.07点，涨0.15%，深成指报9988.66点，跌0.16%，创业板指数报2003.26点，跌0.33%。 高盛集团表示，美国打击伊朗之后， 石油和天然气价格可能上涨，但基线情境预测取决于该地区供应 是否受到严重干扰。分析师在报告指出，如果通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输量在一个月内下降一半，并 在接下来的11个月保持低10%的状态，布伦特油价将短暂飙升至每桶110美元。如果伊朗石油供应量减 少175万桶每日，布伦特将最高触及90美元。 6月22日，美国对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施发动袭击后，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委 员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委 员会手中。 战火延烧引市场担忧 预计油价将大幅上行 霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼和伊朗之间，连接了东部的阿曼湾和西部 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that oil and gas prices may rise following the U.S. attack on Iran, although the bank's base forecast depends on whether there will be significant disruptions in supply in the region [1] - Analysts, including Daan Struyven, indicate that if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz decreases by half within a month and maintains a 10% reduction over the next 11 months, Brent crude prices could spike to $110 per barrel [1] - If Iranian supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day, Brent oil prices could peak at $90 [1] Group 2 - The global oil market is assessing potential price movements as the Middle East crisis escalates, with current crude futures near $79 per barrel [1] - Following the U.S. attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities, Asian trading saw a significant price increase, although Brent crude later retraced some gains as the market refocused on the fact that actual oil transport remains unaffected [1] - Analysts note that major stakeholders, including the U.S. and China, have strong economic incentives to prevent large-scale disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Group 3 - The natural gas market is also viewed as risky, with analysts suggesting that European benchmark futures (TTF) could rise to €74 per megawatt hour (approximately $25 per million British thermal units), a level that previously suppressed demand during the 2022 European energy crisis [1] - In the event of a large-scale and sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, natural gas prices could potentially rise to €100 per megawatt hour [2]

智通财经APP获悉，国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃警告称，美国对伊朗发动 空袭打击后，全球经济面临的不确定性加剧，该事件带来的影响可能不仅仅限于霍尔木兹海峡封锁预期 所带来的原油、液化天然气(LNG)等能源领域价格大涨，IMF正在持续监控能源价格以外的更广泛经济 增长风险。国际货币基金组织正密切关注能源价格受到的影响程度，以及对大型经济体增长前景的潜在 二次和三次级别影响。 "我们把这视为在全球经济高度不确定环境中的又一个不确定来源，"格奥尔基耶娃周一在接受媒体采访 时表示。她还表示，迄今为止最大的冲击体现为能源价格，IMF正紧密追踪这一动向，但"可能会出现 潜在的二次、三次级别的对于经济增长的影响"。 "假如进一步地缘政治动荡打击到全球一些大型经济体的增长前景，那么全球经济增速预期就会触发下 调机制，进而引起一系列负面连锁反应。"格奥尔基耶娃表示。 全球原油基准——布伦特原油期货价格在周一亚洲早盘一度飙升5.7%，至每桶 81.40 美元，随后在大量 成交中回吐大部分涨幅。 据了解，IMF此前已经在4月下调今年全球增速预期，并当时警告称，由美国主导的世界贸易格局"重 启"将拖累全球 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.13%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index remained flat [1] - The oil and gas sector and semiconductors led the gains, with Shandong Molong (002490) rising over 6% and Huahong Semiconductor increasing over 7% [1] - Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) experienced a decline of over 2% on its first day of trading in Hong Kong [1]

A股三大指数早盘涨跌不一，截至午盘，沪指涨0.15%，深成指跌0.16%，创业板指跌0.33%，北证50指 数涨0.51%。全市场半日成交额6838亿元，较上日缩量24亿元。全市场超3600只个股上涨。板块题材 上，石油天然气、港口航运、核污染防治、军工、跨境支付板块涨幅居前。白酒、游戏、猪肉、减肥药 概念股跌幅居前。盘面上，中东局势持续紧张，石油天然气、港口航运板块大涨，泰山石油 （000554）、神开股份（002278）、宁波海运（600798）等股涨停。跨境支付板块早盘拉升，吉大正元 （003029）涨停。银行板块盘中探底回升，工商银行、建设银行、农业银行多股续创历史新高。白酒股 早盘表现落后，迎驾贡酒、山西汾酒（600809）、古井贡酒（000596）跌幅居前。猪肉食品股走低，海 大集团（002311）、双汇发展（000895）、巨星农牧（603477）等股下挫。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The IEA and EIA have lowered their global crude oil demand forecasts for 2025 due to weak demand from the US and China, while geopolitical risks continue to support oil prices [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Outlook - IEA predicts a loose supply-demand balance in 2025, but geopolitical risks are prominent [1] - OPEC+ increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, which is below planned levels, indicating limited actual production capacity [1] - China's "three oil giants" maintain high capital expenditures, with a planned oil and gas production growth of 1.3% to 5.9% by 2025, reinforcing energy security [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Market Impact - The escalation of the US's involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict has intensified the situation, leading to fluctuations in Brent and WTI crude oil prices [1] - The risk of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has increased, with a potential closure impacting 34% of global maritime oil exports, resulting in a 72% weekly increase in BDTI shipping rates [1] - The valuation of oil shipping is expected to rise due to these geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3: Industry Performance and Investment Opportunities - The medium to long-term outlook for crude oil supply and demand remains positive, with recovering chemical demand and capacity clearing benefiting leading refining and coal chemical companies' profitability [1] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the oil and gas sector [1] - The index focuses on the oil and natural gas industry, exhibiting high industry concentration and cyclical characteristics, effectively representing the overall market trends of the oil and gas industry chain [1]

【主编观市】 陆家嘴论坛未有期待的利好加上中东冲突持续对港股产生负面冲击，上周恒指继续调整。 美国终于出手，特朗普21日在社交媒体上说，美军已"成功打击"伊朗三处核设施。包括用6枚钻地弹攻 击那个深达90米的福尔多基地。特朗普称，伊朗关键的铀浓缩核设施已被彻底摧毁。 作为回应，伊朗有可能会对美国在中东的基地进行打击，周边阿拉伯国家可能会面临更高的安全风险， 地区局势在短期和中期内将会出现严重升级。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称，22日早上，在对以色列的袭击中，伊朗发射了40枚导弹，包括"霍拉姆沙赫尔 4"导弹。胡塞武装表示如果美国对伊朗发动攻击，组织将袭击红海海域的美国军舰和船只。 过去一周国际平均运费上涨12%，部分高风险航线，如波斯湾至欧洲航线，以及经过红海的亚洲至欧洲 航线，运费涨幅高达2.5倍。航运股预计持续受到追捧。 无疑本周市场都在高度关注后续伊朗的应对举措，从好的方面看，大家都找个台阶，伊朗和美国重新举 行和谈；从最坏的方面看，伊朗打击美国在中东驻军，引发美国更大干预；中性情况是维持现状，不出 现升级。港股则根据事态发展而变化。 其他因素会有间接影响，本周鲍威尔将向参众两院提交半年度货币政策报告并作证， ...

港股三桶油集体高开，中国海洋石油(00883.HK)开涨1.68%，中国石油股份(00857.HK)开涨1.64%，中国 石油化工股份(00386.HK)开涨0.74%，消息面上美国宣布轰炸伊朗核设施，中东局势进一步紧张。 ...

Group 1: Macro Events - The U.S. launched attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a temporary spike in WTI crude oil prices by nearly 6% [1] - The Iranian parliament approved a proposal to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, although the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council of Iran [1] - Citigroup indicated that any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could result in a significant surge in oil prices [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The National Medical Products Administration of China is implementing measures to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of innovative medical products [2] - The Central Cyberspace Administration of China has initiated a campaign to address the misuse of AI technologies, resulting in the disposal of over 3,500 non-compliant AI products and the removal of over 960,000 pieces of illegal information [3] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed a 50% tariff on various steel-derived household appliances, creating uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies amid ongoing negotiations with the EU [4] Group 3: Market Trends - The Chinese GLP-1 weight loss drug market is projected to exceed 15 billion by 2025, with a penetration rate expected to rise from under 5% in 2023 to 18%-20% [10] - The global cross-border payment transaction volume is anticipated to reach 194.6 trillion by 2024, with a projected CAGR of 6.4% to 320 trillion by 2032 [11] - The development of brain-machine interfaces is accelerating, with commercial prospects for non-invasive products already emerging, while invasive options are expected to have significant future potential [12]

美国对伊朗三大主要核设施的打击正值全球经济的脆弱时刻，其前景现在取决于伊朗的报复力度。 世界银行、经济合作与发展组织和国际货币基金组织最近几个月都下调了全球经济增长预测。 石油或天然气价格的任何大幅上涨，或冲突进一步升级造成的贸易动荡，都将成为世界经济的又一掣 肘。 这在很大程度上取决于近期发生的事件。伊朗外交部长阿拉格奇说，美国的袭击"令人愤慨，并将造成 永久的后果"。他援引《联合国宪章》中关于自卫的规定，称伊朗保留捍卫其主权、利益和人民的所有 选择。 彭博经济公司认为伊朗有三种应对方案： 袭击美国在该地区的人员和资产； 以区域能源基础设施为目标； 使用水雷或骚扰通过的船只关闭霍尔木兹海峡海上咽喉要道 Ziad Daoud、Tom Orlik和Jennifer Welch认为，在霍尔木兹海峡关闭的极端情况下，原油可能会飙升至每 桶130美元以上。这可能使美国夏季的CPI接近4%，从而促使美联储和其他央行推迟未来降息的时间。 全世界每天约有五分之一的石油供应要通过霍尔木兹海峡，该海峡位于伊朗和沙特阿拉伯等海湾阿拉伯 邻国之间。 包括Ziad Daoud在内的彭博经济公司分析师在一份报告中写道："我们将拭目以待 ...