影响走势的关键事件主要集中在三个方面：一是美联储的政策动向，任何关于降息节奏的言论或数据 （如即将公布的PCE物价指数）都会引起市场剧烈波动；二是地缘政治风险，如北约与俄罗斯关系的紧 张升级，持续为市场注入避险需求；三是全球央行的购金行为，例如中国人民银行持续的黄金储备增 持，为金价提供了结构性的需求基础。因此，操作上需在短期技术调整与中长期宏观利好之间寻找平衡 点，并密切关注上述事件的进展。 今日的操作思路应以高位震荡对待。由于金价在连续上涨后处于技术性超买状态，且美元指数出现短线 反弹迹象，直接追多风险较大。建议上方重点关注3750-3760美元区间的阻力效果，若能在此区域承 压，可考虑轻仓尝试短线空单，目标看向3700美元整数关口附近，止损设于3760美元上方。反之，若金 价回落至3700美元附近获得支撑，或是有效跌破3680-3650美元这一更强支撑带，则是为中长期布局多 单的较好机会，因为整体的看涨逻辑并未改变。 展望黄金后期走势，短期可能面临获利了结带来的回调压力，但中长期前景依然偏向乐观。推动金价的 核心动力来自于全球主要央行，尤其是美联储的降息预期。目前市场普遍预测美联储将在年内继续降 息，这 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight increases amid high volatility, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut not leading to significant gains in silver prices. The dollar index rose approximately 0.65%, reaching a near two-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing demand [1] - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note also increased, enhancing the attractiveness of the dollar. Additionally, geopolitical developments, including Trump's peace proposal for Gaza and discussions between U.S. and Russian foreign ministers regarding the Ukraine crisis, have reduced market risk aversion [1] Federal Reserve Policy Signals - The cautious tone from the Federal Reserve, particularly from Chairman Powell, has heightened market caution. Powell emphasized the need to balance persistent inflation risks with a slowing job market, without providing new clues on future interest rate directions, interpreted as a conservative stance on further easing [3] - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 77% chance in December. However, there are notable internal divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding aggressive rate cuts, with some warning against premature easing based on temporary inflation assumptions [3] Upcoming Economic Data and Market Expectations - The market is focused on two key U.S. economic data releases that will provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction and directly impact gold prices. The weekly initial jobless claims data is expected to reveal the latest employment market dynamics, with strong data potentially reinforcing a hawkish Fed stance [4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will be released on Friday. Higher-than-expected PCE data could validate Powell's cautious approach, while lower inflation could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [4] Market Trends and Strategies - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation trend, suggesting strategies for support and resistance trading. The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend [7] - Technical indicators for silver suggest that prices are near the lower boundary of the trading range, with support at 43.53. Caution is advised in trading due to reduced market activity [7] Global Financial Market Dynamics - The precious metals market continues to present investment opportunities, with investors encouraged to utilize trading platforms for real-time market updates and to seize profit opportunities [8]

根据香港黄金交易所高级行员（简称：香港第一金PPLI平台）现货黄金最新走势，国际现货伦敦金价格又暴涨了，再次刷新了历史新高现报3790美元/盎 司，距离3800美元/盎司大关仅差一步之遥。之前香港第一金市场部负责人陈生就说过黄金看似在山顶，其实只是在半山腰，黄金会涨到你心服口服，这句 话至今还适用。看到这篇文章的读者们，你是不是也觉得最近这个金价涨得太猛了，难道仅仅是因为美联储要降息就能涨这么多吗？现在国际现货黄金已经 来到3800美元/盎司大关，未来的时间里面或者国庆节假期黄金还会不会继续涨，今天，第一金陈生就用一篇文章给大家分析分析。 所以读者们，估计看到这里你们应该跟第一金陈生想法差不多，再这么发展下去，没有了纸质货币的信任度，早晚国际贸易也得回到传统货币金银本位。现 在美元在全球央行储备的份额一直在持续的下降，创下了26年来新低，好多国家也在背地里悄悄的抛售美国国债，现在的实物黄金已经成为全球央行第一大 储备资产了。现在很多国家做生意都优先不考虑美元结算，比如说俄罗斯卖石油给印度，就用卢比和卢布直接换，中国跟俄罗斯买天然气也开始用人民币和 卢布结算。这里告诉大家一个好消息，咱们中国的人民币已经跟全球4 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On September 23, the prices of precious metals continued to rise strongly. The price of London gold broke through the $3,700 per ounce mark, and the main contract of Shanghai gold futures broke through the 85 yuan per gram mark, both hitting new all - time highs. Silver prices also rose, but the short - term upward momentum slowed down [4][5]. - In the short term, precious metal prices will remain high and strong. It is recommended to hold long positions, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices due to potential increased volatility during the National Day holiday [5]. - In the long term, factors such as the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, the unsustainable US debt, and the intensification of great - power competition will increase the risk of the US dollar's credit, and the central banks' gold purchases will continue. Therefore, the long - term price center of gold is likely to move upward [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On September 23, compared with September 22, London gold spot rose 1.0% to $3,752.14 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.1% to $43.74 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 1.0% to $3,786.20 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.3% to $44.11 per ounce, AU2510 rose 1.1% to 851.92 yuan per gram, AG2510 rose 0.2% to 10,306 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 1.1% to 849.90 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) rose 0.3% to 10,279 yuan per kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From September 22 to September 23, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed from - 2.5 yuan per gram to - 2.02 yuan per gram, a change of - 19.2%; the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed from - 31 yuan per kilogram to - 27 yuan per kilogram, a change of - 12.9%; the gold's internal - external spread (TD - London) changed from - 8.56 yuan per gram to - 7.29 yuan per gram, a change of - 14.9%; the silver's internal - external spread (TD - London) changed from - 914 yuan per kilogram to - 895 yuan per kilogram, a change of - 2.0%; the SHFE gold - silver ratio rose 0.8% to 82.66; the COMEX gold - silver ratio rose 0.7% to 85.85; the spread between AU2512 - 2510 rose 0.6% to 3.52 yuan per gram; the spread between AG2512 - 2510 rose 26.5% to 43 yuan per kilogram [3]. Position Data - **Non - commercial Positions in COMEX**: As of September 16 (weekly data), compared with September 19, the non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold increased 0.59% to 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased 4.38% to 60,368 contracts, and the net long positions increased 1.78% to 266,410 contracts; the non - commercial long positions in COMEX silver decreased 1.14% to 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased 8.49% to 20,085 contracts, and the net long positions decreased 4.45% to 51,538 contracts [3]. - **ETF Positions**: From September 19 to September 22, the gold ETF - SPDR position increased 0.60% to 1,000.57 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position increased 1.08% to 15,368.89554 tons [3]. Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: From September 22 to September 23, the SHFE gold inventory increased 2.76% to 59,013 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory increased 0.04% to 1,149,043 kilograms [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: From September 19 to September 22, the COMEX gold inventory increased 0.56% to 39,682,786 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased 0.06% to 524,378,224 troy ounces [3]. Market Review and Analysis - **Market Review**: On September 23, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.99% to 85.44 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.78% to 10,349 yuan per kilogram [4]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the market continued to bet on two more rate cuts this year. The potential government "shutdown" and the cryptocurrency market turmoil increased market risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a strong rise in precious metal prices. Silver's short - term upward momentum slowed down. In the short term, precious metal prices will remain high, but investors should be cautious about increased volatility. In the long term, gold's price center is likely to move upward [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Gold Exchange announced that electronic trading will continue as usual despite the issuance of a No. 10 hurricane signal by the Hong Kong Observatory, which is expected to remain in effect for some time [1] Trading Arrangements - The electronic trading platform of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange will operate normally [1] - If a No. 8 (or higher) hurricane signal remains in effect during the day, the public bidding market for Hong Kong gold will suspend trading in both the morning and afternoon sessions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent news highlights the sudden disappearance of Shenzhen's Yuebao Xin Precious Metals Co., which has left many victims in financial distress due to alleged fraudulent activities [1]. Group 1: Company Operations - Yuebao Xin Precious Metals Co. was a well-known trading venue for gold materials in the region, typically attracting around 2,000 visitors daily [3]. - On September 13, the company unexpectedly closed its doors, with its name removed and a white seal placed on the entrance, which was unusual for a business that had been operating normally just the night before [5]. - Reports indicate that on September 12, employees were seen organizing goods inside the store, leading to confusion among nearby businesses when the company failed to open the next day [7]. Group 2: Victim Impact - Victims began to realize they had been defrauded when they could not contact the company's management, leading to a rapid formation of a group chat with over 400 members, including both local and out-of-town merchants [9][11]. - Some victims reported losses of nearly 4 million yuan, with many individuals losing tens of thousands [11]. - One victim mentioned transferring 1.5 million yuan to the company just days before its closure, expecting to pick up goods shortly thereafter [13]. Group 3: Allegations and Legal Actions - Allegations against Yuebao Xin include "swallowing gold," with some victims claiming they had sent gold worth 1.2 million yuan to the company, which was confirmed as received but later became unreachable [15][17]. - The incident has gained significant attention online, prompting local associations to investigate, while law enforcement has also become involved, advising victims to pursue legal recourse [19].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will be closed from October 1 to October 8 for the National Day holiday, with trading resuming on October 9 [1] - To mitigate risks associated with potential fluctuations in international gold and silver prices during the holiday, the Exchange is adjusting margin levels and price limits for gold and silver deferred contracts [1] - Starting from the close of trading on September 26, the margin ratio for various gold contracts will increase from 14% to 16%, and the price limit will change from 13% to 15%. For silver contracts, the margin will rise from 17% to 19%, and the price limit will adjust from 16% to 18% [1] Group 2 - Members are advised to enhance risk awareness and develop detailed emergency response plans to ensure market stability and healthy operation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced adjustments to margin levels and price fluctuation limits for gold and silver contracts in preparation for the National Day holiday in 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Operations - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will be closed from October 1 to October 8, 2025, and will resume normal operations on October 9, 2025 [1] - There will be no night trading on September 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Margin and Price Limits Adjustments - Starting from the close on September 26, 2025, the margin ratio for various gold contracts, including Au(T+D), mAu(T+D), Au(T+N1), Au(T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12, will increase from 14% to 16% [1] - The price fluctuation limit for these gold contracts will change from 13% to 15% starting the next trading day [1] - The margin ratio for the Ag(T+D) contract will rise from 17% to 19%, with the price fluctuation limit increasing from 16% to 18% on the following trading day [1]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3663.15 with no change [2] - London Silver's latest price is 42.24 with no change [2] - London Platinum's latest price is 1393.00, down 1.00 [2] - London Palladium's latest price is 1151.00, down 6.00 [2] - WTI Crude's latest price is 62.68 with no change [2] - LME Copper's latest price is 9998.50, up 36.00 [2] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 97.65 with no change [2] - Euro to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.17 with no change [2] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.35 with no change [2] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest exchange rate is 147.97 with no change [2] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.75 with no change [2] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 16299.57 with no change [3] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1148.62, down 10.82 [3] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1000.57, up 6.01 [3] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15368.90, up 163.76 [3] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1248.26 with no change [3] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1, down 1.00 [3] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting compliant gold trading platforms to mitigate risks associated with regulatory deficiencies and fund management [1][6][7] Group 1: Market Trends - According to the World Gold Council's report, international gold prices are expected to exceed $3000 per ounce, with a monthly volatility of 5.2% [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's gold ETF inflow reached 16.7 billion RMB, marking a historical high, with 72% of new investors prioritizing "compliance qualifications" when choosing platforms [1] Group 2: Regulatory Compliance - The core difference between legitimate and illegitimate precious metal trading platforms lies in regulatory qualifications, which act as a "safety lock" for investments [3] - The AA class membership license from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange has become the industry compliance benchmark, requiring a paid-up registered capital of over 50 million HKD, a latency of less than 0.3 seconds, and customer funds to be bank-isolated [3] Group 3: Fund Security - Fund security is crucial for precious metal investments, with compliant platforms ensuring complete segregation of customer and operational funds, stored in licensed bank accounts [4] - The withdrawal efficiency of compliant platforms is guaranteed, typically processing within 1-2 working days, with some leading platforms achieving 2-hour rapid withdrawals [4] Group 4: Trading Efficiency - During extreme market fluctuations, such as the significant $55 daily volatility in London gold, compliant platforms demonstrated superior order execution speeds of 0.01 seconds, while non-compliant channels faced system issues [5] - The article highlights the importance of trading software usability, recommending platforms that support MT4/MT5 systems for risk management [5] Group 5: Selection Criteria for New Investors - New investors should focus on two core criteria when selecting gold trading platforms: regulatory qualifications and fund security, ensuring third-party fund custody and traceable transaction codes [6] - The article warns against "high rebate traps," emphasizing that compliant platforms have fixed and transparent fee structures [6]