Report Title - Bio - diesel Policy Favorable, US Soybean Oil Leads the Rise of Oils and Fats - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: Internationally, the probability of abnormal weather for US soybeans is decreasing, and policy may be the key factor affecting the market. US soybeans may run within the range of 950 - 1100 cents. Domestically, the inventory of soybean meal is accelerating, and the Dalian soybean meal market will face the game between cost increase and supply easing, with short - term low - level fluctuations. [136] - The oils and fats market: Internationally, the MPOB report is expected to be favorable, and the US soybean oil market has positive policies for biodiesel. Domestically, the market follows the international trend, with short - term volatile strength, and it is advisable to adopt interval band operations or double - selling option strategies. [136] Section Summaries 1. Protein Meal Market Analysis 1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans rebounded from a low level this week. The near - month contracts were pressured by the higher - than - expected quarterly inventory report at the end of June, while the far - month contracts were supported by the slightly lower - than - expected planting area report. The US Senate's new tax bill and Trump's speech also affected the market. The main contract of US soybeans fluctuated between 950 - 1100 cents. Dalian soybean meal oscillated higher at a low level, with a weaker increase than US soybeans. [6] 1.2 US Soybean Export - The US soybean export inspection volume increased by 11% from the previous week but decreased by 30% year - on - year. As of June 26, 2025, the export inspection volume was 224,787 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 45,851,787 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and 91.1% of the revised export target has been achieved. [12] 1.3 North American Weather - In the US, there were active weather conditions in many areas, with heavy rainfall in some parts and drought in others. There were also wildfires in the west. In Canada, the rainfall in the prairies was generally low, and some areas in Saskatchewan experienced drought. [24][30] 1.4 Global Oilseed Market - The US soybean inventory as of June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, a 4% year - on - year increase. The 2025 US soybean planting area was adjusted down to 83.38 million acres. Argentina restored the original tax rates for soybeans and other crops. The EU's rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to increase, while sunflower seed production is expected to decrease. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is estimated to reach a record high of 168.75 million tons. [35][36][37] 1.5 Trade Pattern Changes - Italy will increase imports of US soybeans. Trump is rumored to reveal the progress of the trade agreement with China, and the US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. [39] 1.6 Domestic Soybean Situation - The domestic spot and futures crushing margins of soybeans have declined. As of the end of this week, the inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 5.988 million tons, and it is expected to be 5.04 million tons next weekend. The cost of imported soybeans from the US Gulf for September shipment is 4,620 yuan/ton, and that from Brazil is 3,917 yuan/ton. [45][48] 1.7 Soybean Meal Situation - As of the end of the 26th week (June 28), the average soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills was 67.05%, a decrease of 4.44% from the previous week. The inventory of soybean meal was 751,000 tons, an increase of 217,000 tons from the previous week. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 26th week was 1.7513 million tons, a decrease from the previous week. [53][57] 1.8 Rapeseed Meal Situation - As of the end of the 26th week (June 28), the weekly opening rate of domestic imported rapeseed processing enterprises was 13.82%, a 0.73% increase from the previous week. The inventory of imported crushed rapeseed meal was 9,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week. [63] 2. Oils and Fats Market Analysis 2.1 Market Trends - International oils and fats oscillated higher this week, with US soybean oil rising significantly due to the favorable policy for biodiesel. Malaysian palm oil also rose, and domestic oils and fats followed the trend. Dalian palm oil led the rise, Zhengzhou rapeseed oil oscillated strongly, and Dalian soybean oil rose and then fell. [70] 2.2 International Oils and Fats Information - Malaysian palm oil exports increased in June, with different performance for different varieties. Indonesia raised the reference price of palm oil in July. Indian importers cancelled some palm oil import orders. The US Senate's new tax bill is favorable for US soybeans and corn growers. The production of South Malaysian palm oil decreased in June. [74][75][76][77][78] 2.3 Domestic Oils and Fats Situation - As of the end of the 26th week in 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.4565 million tons, a weekly increase of 188,100 tons. The inventory of soybean oil was 1.0609 million tons, an increase of 75,000 tons; the inventory of edible palm oil was 511,500 tons, an increase of 113,400 tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil was 884,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. [93] 2.4 Arbitrage Relationships - This week, the oil - meal ratio of beans and rapeseeds decreased slightly, and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal continued to decline, and the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil decreased significantly, while the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil fluctuated narrowly. [113][117][119] 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term indicators are entangled, medium - term indicators are bearish, and long - term indicators are entangled. For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all entangled. For soybean oil, short - term indicators are entangled, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled. For palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all bullish. For rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled. [135] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein meal: Internationally, the probability of weather speculation for US soybeans is decreasing, and policy is the key factor. Domestically, the inventory of soybean meal is accelerating, and the market will face the game between cost increase and supply easing. - Oils and fats: Internationally, the MPOB report is expected to be favorable, and the US soybean oil market has positive policies. Domestically, the market follows the international trend, with short - term volatile strength, and it is advisable to adopt interval band operations or double - selling option strategies. [136]

Core Insights - The USDA drought report indicates a continued decrease in the area affected by drought for U.S. soybeans, currently at historically low levels, which may impact soybean prices [1] Group 1 - The area of U.S. soybeans affected by drought is decreasing [1] - Current drought-affected areas are at historically low levels for this time of year [1] - Potential implications for soybean prices due to these drought conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The fresh corn harvesting season in Dou Dian Village, Fangshan District, Beijing, has begun, showcasing a successful agricultural transformation that integrates production, packaging, and sales, leading to increased income for local farmers [1][4][5]. Group 1: Agricultural Practices - Dou Dian Village has adopted ecological principles in fresh corn cultivation, utilizing biological pest control and organic fertilizers instead of chemical fertilizers [5]. - The corn variety "Nongke Guo 336," recognized as one of the top ten sweet and glutinous corn varieties in China, is a key product for the village [4][5]. - Expert guidance from agricultural scientists has improved planting techniques, resulting in an expected increase of nearly 500 ears of corn per acre compared to the previous year [5]. Group 2: Sales and Distribution - The village has developed a complete fresh corn industry chain, allowing for online and offline sales across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and beyond [5]. - Fresh corn is harvested and delivered to consumers within half a day, ensuring maximum freshness [4][5]. - The brand "Fresh Corn Dou" has been established, enhancing the economic value of the corn and doubling sales revenue compared to previous years [5]. Group 3: Community Impact - The fresh corn industry has created job opportunities for local residents, with half of the workers in the second farm being from Dou Dian Village [5]. - The successful branding and sales of fresh corn have garnered consumer recognition and positive feedback, contributing to the village's economic development [5][6].

Core Insights - Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase, but the yield per hectare has been revised downwards, raising questions about the adequacy of global soybean supply pricing [1] Group 1: Production and Yield - Brazil's soybean production is projected to rise, indicating a potential increase in global supply [1] - However, the yield per hectare has been adjusted downward, suggesting that the increase in total production may not be as significant as initially anticipated [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The potential oversupply of soybeans globally raises concerns about whether the current pricing adequately reflects this surplus [1]

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - The actual sown area of U.S. cotton in the new year is higher than expected, and the supply may not show positive signs. The domestic cotton market has a tight supply-demand situation in the later stage of this year, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off-season [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,187 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The new-year actual sown area of U.S. cotton was 10.12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the supply-side positive factors may not appear, and attention should be paid to the weather and new cotton growth in major producing countries. Domestically, the supply-demand situation is tight in the later stage, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The macro uncertainty still exists, and the continuous upward space of cotton prices is restricted [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply increase expectation in the Brazilian 25/26 sugar season has not changed, and the new-season production in India and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the ICE raw sugar price. However, the downside space of raw sugar is limited [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the first half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil decreased by 21.49% year-on-year, and the sugar production decreased by 22.12% year-on-year [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply pressure has been largely reflected, and the downside space of raw sugar is limited. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar and the substitute import policy [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy, focusing on the Brazilian sugar production estimate and the domestic import rhythm [6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,026 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian needles was 5,085 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The 09 contract is mainly priced by Russian needles and Uzbek needles, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9]

Group 1 - The Jinan municipal government is actively promoting agricultural and rural consumption through various initiatives, including the "Action to Promote Agricultural and Rural Consumption" [1] - Jinan has planned and implemented 309 key agricultural projects with an annual investment of 13.86 billion yuan, focusing on stabilizing the production of staple food and enhancing supply capacity [1] - In the first quarter, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Jinan reached 9.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1] Group 2 - Jinan is enhancing its agricultural brand system, creating a "1+15+N" agricultural brand matrix, and has authorized 140 enterprises and 420 products under the "Spring Water Family" public brand [2] - The city has organized 29 sales matching activities, involving over 530 agricultural operators, to facilitate local consumers' access to quality agricultural products [2] - Jinan is expanding its rural consumption scenarios by developing new rural tourism routes and organizing various cultural and agricultural events [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Jinan municipal government is actively promoting agricultural and rural consumption through a series of initiatives aimed at enhancing the supply of quality agricultural products and improving market connectivity [1][2] Group 1: Agricultural Product Supply and Quality Enhancement - Jinan will focus on six key areas: grain, fruits and vegetables, livestock and poultry, seed industry, urban leisure agriculture, and agricultural services, aiming to develop 10 signature agricultural industrial chains and 43 key product lines [1] - The city plans to cultivate and enhance agricultural product quality, branding, and standardized production, with a target of certifying over 50 green and organic products within the year [1] Group 2: Market Connectivity and Promotion Activities - Jinan will expand market outreach by hosting over 50 promotional events for the "泉水人家" brand and organizing agricultural enterprises to participate in 15 major trade exhibitions [2] - The city aims to strengthen the construction of agricultural product circulation facilities, including the establishment and upgrading of three professional wholesale markets [2] Group 3: Rural Consumption Scene Development - Jinan will leverage local resources to create diverse rural consumption scenarios, promoting leisure agriculture, boutique homestays, and e-commerce live streaming to enhance rural tourism consumption potential [2] - The city plans to organize various festive activities and competitions to stimulate consumption during key agricultural seasons, including the celebration of the Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival [2]

Core Insights - The failure rate of agricultural investments exceeds 90%, highlighting the challenges in the sector [1] - Four critical pain points hinder the success of agricultural projects: production dispersion, lack of standardization, disconnection between production and sales, and insufficient brand power [3][4][7][9] Group 1: Agricultural Project Challenges - Production dispersion leads to high costs and lack of competitive pricing due to the fragmented nature of Chinese agriculture [3] - The absence of standardization across production and sales processes remains a significant issue, even with advancements in smart and digital agriculture [4] - The disconnection between production and sales results in unsold products and poor consumer access to quality goods [7] - Weak brand recognition and product homogeneity limit pricing power, forcing producers to accept market prices [9] Group 2: Successful Agricultural Project Characteristics - Successful agricultural projects exhibit a "iron triangle model" consisting of significant pricing power, replicability, and innovative profit structures [11][16][20] - Brand premium is crucial for success, as effective branding can significantly increase product value [12][13] - Technological advancements and unique techniques can enhance project success and profitability [14] - Projects should focus on niche markets and personalized offerings to maximize pricing power [15] Group 3: Keys to Agricultural Project Success - Building a founder's brand is essential, as consumers trust visible leaders [22] - Precise market positioning is critical; projects should avoid broad targeting and focus on specific consumer segments [24] - Diversifying revenue streams is necessary to mitigate risks associated with single-product dependency [25] - Unique sales channels, such as high-end community group buying and live streaming, can enhance product visibility and sales [28] - Deep differentiation in products is vital for attracting consumer attention and establishing a competitive edge [30] Conclusion - The complexity of agricultural success lies in restructuring production relationships and industry chain logic, emphasizing the need for a complete value chain from production to sales [33]

2025 年 07 月 02 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收平，连粕或反弹震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面或震荡 【宏观及行业新闻】 7 月 1 日 CBOT 大豆日评：大豆稳中微涨，因豆油上涨抵消作物良好的影响。北京德润林 2025 年 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4127 | -20（-0.48%） 4126 -3（-0.07%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2961 | +3（+0.10%） 2953 -8（-0.27%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1027.5 | +0.0（+0.00%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 287.5 | n a -2.0（-0.69%） | | | | | 豆粕 （43 ...

蛋白粕丨月报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 期货从业资格证号： F03113318 周度数据，新作大豆优良率较高，截至 6 月 29 日，大豆出苗率 94%，上期值 90%，去年同期 94%，五年均值 95%。开花率 17%，上期 值 8%，去年同期 18%，五年均值 16%。结荚率 3%，去年同期 3%，五年 均值 2%。优良率 66%，上期值 66%，去年同期 67%。 期货投资咨询证书： 阿根廷大豆收获完毕，农户们"抢售"赶在 7 月 1 日关税优惠到 期前甩卖大豆类产品。6 月 26 日国内多家大型贸易商采购阿根廷共 3 万吨豆粕，带动内外盘下跌。这是自 2019 年中阿协议签署后首次。 Z0018777 2025 年 7 月 1 日 美豆种植面积未作调整，关注产区天气与后续发船 近期国内外蛋白粕期货行情回顾及分析： （一）豆粕：6 月最后一周，内外盘粕类油脂，走势显著分化 最新要点：USDA 种植面积报告与季末库存报告；油粕驱动分化 6 月底 USDA 发布两份季度报告，预计 2025 年大豆播种面积 8340 万英亩，符合预期，相比 6 月 WASDE 报调整很 ...