Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The refinery's recent production schedule has increased, raising supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, crude oil prices are rising, and cost support has strengthened in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3445 - 3487 [7]. - Bullish factor: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [9]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint - **Supply side**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 312600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The sample enterprise output was 701000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.49%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 601000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.02%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand side**: The construction start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of road - modified asphalt was 31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of waterproofing membranes was 35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 659.68 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices are rising, and it is expected that cost support will strengthen in the short term [7]. - **Basis**: On September 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 34 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.105 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. Factory inventory was 658000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 15000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5%. Social inventory continued to decline, factory inventory continued to accumulate, and port inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Main positions**: The net long position of the main players increased, showing a bullish situation [7]. 2. Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and other data of various asphalt contracts, including 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on inventory, production, start - up rate, etc. For example, the price of the 01 - contract increased by 0.18% compared with the previous value; the weekly start - up rate of Shandong local refineries increased by 41.64% compared with the previous value [14]. 3. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [16][17]. 4. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - contract spread**: It shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [19][20]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [22][23]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the cracking spread trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [25][26][27]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, fuel oil price ratio trend**: It shows the price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relative price relationships among these products [29][31]. 5. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Prices in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [32][33]. 6. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [34][35]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profit from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profit differences between coking and asphalt production [37][38][39]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the sales situation of asphalt [41][42]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It shows the historical inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the supply situation of raw materials [43][44]. - **Production volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply of asphalt [46][47]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It shows the historical price trends of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [50][52]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - **Start - up rate**: It shows the historical weekly start - up rate trends of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the production activity of the asphalt industry [56][57]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: It shows the historical estimated trends of asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [58][59]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is important for understanding the overall inventory situation [61][62][63]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory structure [65][66]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management efficiency of factories [68][69]. - **Import - export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [71][72]. - **South Korean asphalt import spread trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the cost advantage of imported asphalt [74][75][76]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for petroleum - related products [77][78]. - **Apparent consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall market demand [80][81]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction**: It shows the historical investment trends in highway construction from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the infrastructure - related demand for asphalt [83][84]. - **New local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: It shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt start - up rate**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt [92][93]. - **Asphalt start - up rate by use**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [95][96]. - **Downstream start - up situation**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproof - membrane modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in different downstream applications [98][99][101]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of asphalt from January 2024 - September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the market supply - demand relationship [103][104].

īs ​ 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | HIST. LA HOLO FARS ALAA | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 8/29 | 9/19 | 9/25 | 9/26 | 9/29 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | | BU主力合约 | 3507 | 3421 | 3440 | 3450 | 3466 | 16 | 45 | | | BU10 | 3507 | 3420 | 3460 | 3469 | | 16 | ર | | | | | | | | 3485 | | | | | BU11 | 3489 | 3421 | 3440 | 3450 | 3466 | 16 | 45 | | | BU12 | 3433 | 3374 | 3382 | 3412 | 3418 | 6 | 44 | | 播 | BU01 | 3399 | 3353 | 3360 | 3396 | 3402 | 6 | 49 | | | | | | | | | 7 | | | | BU03 | 3408 | 336 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views - Supply side: High asphalt losses, raw material shortages, and limited improvement in terminal demand are expected to keep the asphalt operating rate low in Q4. With the widening discount of diluted asphalt, attention should be paid to the potential increase in Venezuelan heavy oil flowing to China. Import growth in Q4 2025 is expected to be very limited. [4][78] - Demand side: Asphalt demand is mainly concentrated in road infrastructure and real estate, with road infrastructure accounting for 70%. As 2025 is the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", many road construction projects are in the delivery phase, which will drive asphalt demand. However, due to financial constraints on local governments and the lack of improvement in the real estate market, asphalt demand is unlikely to improve significantly in Q4 and will still lag behind previous years. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the capital side and the pace of forming asphalt physical volume. Low asphalt inventory strongly supports asphalt futures prices. [4][78] - Overall trend: With weak supply and demand, asphalt is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations in Q4, with its overall center of gravity moving down. The high asphalt basis suggests that northern spot traders can short the basis. Also, the 01 - 06 spread of asphalt is expected to weaken seasonally, so it is recommended to short the 01 - 06 spread. [4][78] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price走势 - The asphalt/crude oil ratio increased in the first three quarters of 2025. Due to geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Venezuela, the ratio is expected to remain high in Q4. [9] - After the implementation of the diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy, refineries suffered heavy losses in processing diluted asphalt, leading to a significant reduction in imports and low port inventories. [11] - In the South China region, the increase in refinery operating rates has given asphalt spot prices a significant advantage. [20] - Since 2025, the asphalt basis first declined and then rebounded to a relatively high level. Recently, it has dropped to a slightly high - neutral position. [29] 2. Asphalt Production and Consumption - In August 2025, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.74%, and the Shandong region's operating rate decreased by 6.61 percentage points to 33.74%, both at relatively low levels. [34] - In August 2025, asphalt production increased by 0.75% month - on - month to 2.5267 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 22.63%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production increased by 9.28% year - on - year to 18.8156 million tons. [39] - In July 2025, the apparent consumption of asphalt increased by 2.79% month - on - month to 2.833 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 21.21%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption increased by 4.98% year - on - year to 18.0629 million tons. As of September 26, the national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 0.32% week - on - week to 312,600 tons. [44] - As of September 26, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 5.7 percentage points to 40.1%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating rate was mostly low, and the profit of Shandong asphalt spot was significantly in the red, with a loss of over 600 yuan/ton. [47] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative net import of asphalt was 1.9591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.73%. In August, the net import reached the lowest level in recent years. [49] 3. Asphalt Downstream - Asphalt downstream demand is mainly in road construction and maintenance (about 70%), building waterproofing (about 20%), and ship fuel and coking (about 10%). [52] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 3.3%, continuing to decline. The cumulative sales volume of pavers was 1,120 units, a year - on - year increase of 36.58%. [57] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset infrastructure investment was 5.42%. The growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding electricity dropped from 3.2% in January - July 2025 to 2.0% in January - August 2025. [59] - From January to July 2025, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. The issuance progress of new local bonds is higher than that in 2024 but lower than that in 2023. It is expected that the special bonds will increase significantly from September to October. [62] - In Q3, the downstream main - road modified asphalt strengthened seasonally but not as much as in previous years. As of September 26, the operating rates of most downstream industries increased, but they were still at relatively low levels compared to previous years. [66] 4. Asphalt Inventory - As of September 26, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 14.7%, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. [71] - As of September 26, the asphalt social inventory decreased by 3.50% week - on - week to 1.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.14%. The factory inventory increased by 1.16% week - on - week to 698,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.74%. The overall inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level compared to previous years. [76]

Group 1 - The controlling shareholder, Hengli Group, and its concerted parties hold a total of 5.311 billion shares, accounting for 75.45% of the total shares [1] - A total of 1.790 billion shares have been pledged, representing 33.71% of their holdings and 25.43% of the total share capital [1] - Hengneng Investment holds 1.498 billion shares, which is 21.29% of the total, with 0.622 billion shares pledged [1] Group 2 - On September 25, Hengneng Investment pledged 53 million shares to CITIC Bank Suzhou Branch for liquidity purposes [1] - On September 26, 68 million shares were released from pledge [1] - Hengneng Investment has a good credit rating, and the risks associated with this pledge are controllable, with no substantial impact on the company [1]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [3] 2. Core Data Summary Futures Contracts - **Prices**: For BU10, the price on August 28 was 3517, and on September 26 it was 3450, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 23. Similar data is provided for other contracts like BU11, BU12, etc. [4] - **Volume and Open Interest**: On September 26, the trading volume was 348,568, an increase of 72,570 from the previous day and 137,960 from the previous week. The open interest was 366,558, a decrease of 28,019 from the previous day and 42,198 from the previous week [4]. Spot Prices - **Regional Market Prices**: The Shandong market price remained at 3500 from September 24 - 26, with no daily change and a -20 change from the previous week. The East China market price was stable at 3560 during the same period, with no daily change and a -30 change from the previous week. Other regions like South China, North China, and Northeast China also had their respective price data [4]. - **Warehouse Prices**: The Zhenjiang warehouse price increased from 3420 on September 24 to 3490 on September 26, a daily increase of 70 and a weekly increase of 20. The Foshan warehouse price remained at 3450 during the same period, with no daily change and a -20 change from the previous week [4]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The Shandong basis (+80) decreased from 168 on September 24 to 100 on September 26, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 43. The East China basis increased from -20 on September 25 to 40 on September 26, a daily increase of 60 and a -3 change from the previous week [4]. - **Spread**: The 10 - 11 spread decreased from 20 on September 25 to 19 on September 26, a daily decrease of 1 and a 10 change from the previous week. Other spreads like 10 - 12, 11 - 12, etc., also had their respective changes [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - **Crack Spread**: The asphalt Brent crack spread decreased from -109 on September 25 to -116 on September 26, a daily decrease of 7 and a -174 change from the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The asphalt Ma Rui profit decreased from -166 on September 25 to -172 on September 26, a daily decrease of 6 and a -157 change from the previous week. Other profit indicators like the general refinery comprehensive profit, Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit, etc., also had their respective changes [4]. Other Related Prices - **Crude Oil Price**: The Brent crude oil price increased from 69.3 on September 25 to 69.4 on September 26, a daily increase of 0.1 and a 2.7 increase from the previous week [4]. - **Refined Product Prices**: The Shandong market price of gasoline decreased from 7517 on September 25 to 7513 on September 26, a daily decrease of 4 and a 2 change from the previous week. The Shandong market price of diesel decreased from 6467 on September 25 to 6466 on September 26, a daily decrease of 1 and a 37 change from the previous week [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for major companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [4]. Core Views - The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has led to increased oil prices due to attacks on Russian oil facilities, impacting supply chains and causing fuel shortages in Russia [1][8]. - Iraq's oil production and export flexibility are expected to improve, which may enhance compliance with OPEC+ production quotas in the short term [1]. - The report anticipates that oil prices will remain volatile in the short term due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+'s concentrated pricing power [1][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" recommendation for key players in the oil and gas sector, highlighting their stable performance and high dividend yields [4]. Market Overview - As of September 26, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.13 per barrel, up 5.17% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $65.72 per barrel, up 4.85% [9][36]. - The U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.5 million barrels per day, with refinery throughput rising to 16.48 million barrels per day [9][10]. Company Performance - The report highlights the performance of various companies, with China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation being recommended for their strong fundamentals and dividend policies [4][12]. Oil Supply and Demand - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, with commercial crude oil stocks at 41.475 million barrels, down 61,000 barrels week-on-week [10]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions will continue to influence oil supply and demand dynamics [1][8]. Natural Gas Market - The NYMEX natural gas futures price closed at $2.86 per million British thermal units, down 1.99% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia's LNG price was $11.21 per million British thermal units, down 3.25% [9][44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions, including Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and potential restrictions on fuel exports from Russia, alongside a decrease in US crude oil inventories [2][9] - As of September 26, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $69.22 and $65.72 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 4.82% and 5.32% from the previous week [2][27] - The report highlights the performance of the oil and petrochemical sector, noting a slight decline of 0.12% in the sector compared to a 1.07% increase in the broader market [10][13] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $69.22 per barrel, up $3.18 (+4.82%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $65.72 per barrel, an increase of $3.32 (+5.32%) [2][27] - Russian Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while Russian ESPO crude increased by $1.67 (+2.65%) to $64.63 per barrel [2][27] Offshore Drilling Services - As of September 22, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 371, an increase of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms decreased to 130 [31] US Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production reached 13.501 million barrels per day, an increase of 19,000 barrels from the previous week [52] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US rose to 424, with an increase of 6 rigs [52] US Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude processing averaged 16.476 million barrels per day, up by 52,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.00%, down 0.3 percentage points [63] US Crude Oil Inventory - Total US crude oil inventory was 821 million barrels, a decrease of 377,000 barrels (-0.05%) from the previous week [72] - Strategic crude oil inventory increased by 230,000 barrels (+0.06%) to 406 million barrels, while commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels (-0.15%) to 415 million barrels [72] Finished Oil Products - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $98.74 (+0.47), $83.94 (-0.58), and $85.97 (-1.87) per barrel, respectively [91]

Meeting Details - The meeting was held on September 26, 2025, at 14:30, with network voting available from 9:15 to 15:00 on the same day [4][5]. - The location of the meeting was the company's office building in Longfeng District, Daqing City [6]. - The meeting was conducted through a combination of on-site and online voting [7]. - The meeting was convened by the company's board of directors [8]. Attendance - A total of 38 shareholders attended the meeting, representing 82,552,800 shares, which is 63.6787% of the total voting shares [10]. - Among them, 2 shareholders attended in person, representing 82,320,600 shares (63.4996%), while 36 shareholders participated via online voting, representing 232,200 shares (0.1791%) [10][11]. - The attendance of minority shareholders was 36, representing 232,200 shares (0.1791%), all of which were through online voting [12]. Proposal Voting - The meeting adopted a combination of on-site and online voting for the proposals, with a special resolution requiring more than two-thirds approval from the attending shareholders [14]. - The legal opinion provided by the law firm confirmed that the meeting's procedures, attendance, and voting methods complied with relevant laws and regulations, making the resolutions valid [13]. Documentation - The resolutions from the shareholders' meeting were signed and stamped by the attending directors and the recorder [14]. - A legal opinion letter from Heilongjiang Siyang Law Firm regarding the meeting was also included in the documentation [14].

Group 1 - Company Compton plans to reduce its repurchased shares by up to approximately 2.56 million shares, accounting for 1% of the total share capital, within three months after the announcement [1] - The reduction will be executed through centralized bidding trading, and any changes in share capital due to stock dividends or capital reserve transfers will lead to an adjustment in the reduction quantity [1] - For the year 2024, Compton's revenue composition is entirely from oil processing, with a 100% share [1] Group 2 - As of the report, Compton's market capitalization stands at 4.4 billion yuan [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low prices [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures rose 1.3% to 2,887 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.56% to 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices fluctuated strongly this week, with mixed long and short factors in the market. The short - term trend is still unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the previous supply pressure has eased. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has significantly declined, but there is still room for growth in the future. The upward driving force of the high - sulfur fuel oil market may be limited, and it is currently in a relatively balanced state [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply has increased significantly recently, but the overall supply pressure is limited. The trend of substitution of low - sulfur marine fuel demand share has not reversed, and there is still significant resistance above the market [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.3% at 2,887 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.56% at 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices showed a fluctuating upward trend this week, with mixed long and short factors in the market. The short - term trend is still unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU [1] - The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the previous supply pressure has eased. The net export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East in September is expected to be 1.21 million tons, a decrease of 1.21 million tons compared with August. However, there is still room for supply growth in the Middle East in the future, and the upward driving force of the high - sulfur fuel oil market may be limited [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply has increased significantly due to the shutdown of the RFCC unit of the Nigerian Dangote refinery. However, the overall supply pressure is limited, and the resistance above the market is still large [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low prices [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the spot prices, swap near - month contracts, and month - to - month spreads of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, as well as the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of SHFE fuel oil and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts [3] Researcher Information - The researchers are Pan Xiang and Kang Yuanning, with practice qualification numbers F3023104 and F3049404 respectively, and investment consulting numbers Z0013188 and Z0015842 respectively [37]