Core Insights - China's grain production is projected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, marking a significant milestone in food security and quality improvement since the founding of the People's Republic of China [1][2] - The government emphasizes the importance of food security as a strategic issue, with a focus on self-sufficiency and domestic production [2][3] - The country has maintained a grain output of over 1.3 trillion jin for the past decade, with per capita grain availability significantly above the international safety line [2] Group 1: Food Security Strategy - The Chinese government prioritizes food security as a top governance issue, with a strategic focus on self-reliance and domestic production capabilities [2][3] - The national food security strategy includes ensuring basic grain self-sufficiency and absolute safety in staple food supplies [2][4] - The government has set a target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin for grain production in its development goals, signaling a strong commitment to food production [1][3] Group 2: Agricultural Development and Technology - Technological innovation in agriculture is crucial for increasing grain production and efficiency, with a contribution rate exceeding 63% [5][6] - The use of advanced agricultural technologies, such as drones and precision farming equipment, is enhancing productivity [5][6] - There is a need for breakthroughs in key agricultural technologies, particularly in crop breeding and smart equipment [5][6] Group 3: Land and Resource Management - Protecting arable land is fundamental to ensuring food security, with strict regulations in place to maintain the 1.8 billion mu red line for cultivated land [4][5] - The government is focused on improving the quality and ecological sustainability of farmland, with over 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland already established [4][5] - Efforts are being made to address issues of land misuse and non-agricultural encroachment on farmland [4][5] Group 4: Waste Reduction and Food Conservation - Approximately 35 million tons of food are wasted annually in China, accounting for about 6% of total grain production [7] - The government has implemented laws and initiatives to promote food conservation and reduce waste across the supply chain [7][8] - A comprehensive approach is being adopted to enhance public awareness and participation in food-saving initiatives [7][8]

Core Insights - Japan's rice prices have risen for the 17th consecutive week, reaching a record average of 4,233 yen (approximately 30 USD) per 5 kilograms, more than double the price from a year ago [1] - The government’s release of stockpiled rice has had limited effectiveness in stabilizing supply, indicating ongoing supply constraints [1] - Prime Minister Kishida instructed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to develop measures to mitigate the negative impacts of soaring rice prices [1] Price Trends - As of the week ending April 27, the average price of rice sold in supermarkets increased by 13 yen per 5 kilograms, marking the highest increase since data collection began in March 2022 [1] - The recent price surge is attributed to tight rice supply, driven by last summer's high temperatures and increased demand from a surge in inbound tourism [1] Government Actions - To facilitate market circulation, the government has decided to release 312,000 tons of stockpiled rice into the market [1]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.51%. The North Exchange 50 Index fell by 0.46% [1] - The total market turnover reached 150.51 billion yuan, an increase of 140.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,200 stocks in the market experienced gains [1] Sector Performance - The military industry, grain planting, chemical industry, real estate, and brain-computer interface sectors saw significant gains [1] - The military sector experienced a surge, with stocks like Jinming Precision Machinery, Chenxi Aviation, and Aerospace Changfeng hitting the daily limit [1] - Chemical stocks also rose in the afternoon, with companies such as Hubei Yihua, Yangmei Chemical, and Hongbaoli reaching the daily limit [1] - The grain planting sector continued to rise in the afternoon, with stocks like Qiule Seed Industry and Kangnong Seed Industry leading the gains [1] Underperforming Sectors - The film and theater sector lagged behind, with stocks like Shanghai Film, Aofei Entertainment, and Happiness Blue Sea declining [1] - The innovative drug sector also saw adjustments, with Baiji Shenzhou dropping over 9% during the day, followed by declines in Rongchang Bio, Yifang Bio, and Yipinhong [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's imposition of tariffs on U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and wheat is a necessary countermeasure to the U.S. "tariff stick," aimed at safeguarding national interests and enhancing food security [1] Group 1: Agricultural Import Dynamics - The import volume of grains from the U.S. has significantly decreased, which will not undermine domestic food supply stability but will accelerate the diversification of grain imports [1] - Historically, China relied on the U.S. for over 90% of its soybean and corn imports, highlighting the risks of a single supply channel [1] - Brazil has become the largest source of soybean and corn imports for China, while Australia has taken the lead in wheat imports, reducing dependency on the U.S. [1] Group 2: Domestic Production and Self-Sufficiency - China has implemented the strictest arable land protection policies and strategies to enhance comprehensive grain production capacity, achieving a grain production milestone of 1.4 trillion jin [2] - The country has maintained soybean production above 20 million tons for three consecutive years, improving self-sufficiency and bargaining power in international grain trade [2] - Efforts are being made to stabilize rice and wheat production while developing alternative crops to ensure food security and economic stability [2] Group 3: Grain Reserve and Management - China has established a combined grain reserve system of government and social reserves, ensuring sufficient stock and optimized structure [2] - The government is enhancing grain reserve management and monitoring to ensure the safety and stability of grain supplies [2] - A comprehensive monitoring and early warning system for grain and important agricultural products is being developed to maintain price stability [2] Group 4: Reducing Food Waste and Import Dependency - Initiatives to reduce food loss across various stages of the supply chain are being implemented, effectively increasing food availability and reducing import reliance [3] - The promotion of deep processing of grains and the use of by-products aims to enhance domestic oil self-sufficiency and decrease oilseed imports [3] - Strategies to reduce soybean meal usage through alternative feed ingredients are being adopted to further lower soybean import levels [3] Group 5: Strategic Policy Implementation - A combination of policies is being utilized to enhance food security, focusing on import diversification, capacity enhancement, reserve management, and waste reduction [3]

4月30日，农业农村部党组书记、部长韩俊主持召开部党组会议，强化政策谋划实施，抓实抓细农业农 村各项工作，牢牢稳住"三农"基本盘，为促进经济持续回升向好提供基础支撑。会议强调，要着力稳定 粮食等重要农产品生产供应，紧盯不放抓好夏粮生产，进一步强化旱情灾情第一时间响应机制，及时派 出工作组和科技小分队指导抗旱救灾工作，努力减轻旱情影响，围绕三夏重要关口及早落实稳产增产措 施，奋力夺取夏粮丰收。要持续抓好奶牛肉牛产业纾困，合理调控生猪产能，深挖农业农村领域消费潜 力，加快实施农业农村领域"人工智能+"行动。要防范化解农业农村领域风险隐患，加强渔船渔港、农 机等重点领域安全风险排查整治，坚决遏制重特大事故发生。(人民财讯) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the Sino - US tariff game, China has implemented tariff counter - measures, which highlights the importance of food security. The self - controllability of seed sources has become crucial, and the seed industry may receive strong policy support [1][2]. - The Chinese government has issued a plan to accelerate the construction of an agricultural powerhouse, with clear goals for different time points to ensure food supply and promote rural development [3][33]. - The Guozheng Grain Industry Index has investment value. It is more focused on the seed and grain planting fields after revision, with reasonable valuation and better performance than some major indices [4]. - The Penghua Guozheng Grain ETF and its linked funds are good investment vehicles for tracking the Guozheng Grain Industry Index [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Tariff Game Background and New Opportunities for the Grain Industry 3.1.1 China's Tariff Counter - measures in Response to Sino - US Tariff Shocks - On April 2, 2025 (Eastern Time), the US government announced a "reciprocal tariff" policy. China issued a statement on April 5, strongly condemning and opposing it. On April 4, China announced a 34% tariff increase on US - originated goods and took other counter - measures [1][10][11]. 3.1.2 The Significance of Food Security under Tariff Counter - measures - China is a major food importer, and the US is an important source of its agricultural imports. In 2024, China imported 3179 tons of grain from the US, accounting for 20.2% of its total imports, a 1.3 - percentage - point decrease from 2023. The import cost of agricultural products will rise, and domestic seed industry upgrading is expected [2][11][13]. - As of April 11, 2025, there were significant price fluctuations in bulk agricultural products [17]. 3.1.3 Government Support for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse - The Chinese government issued the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024 - 2035)", with clear goals for 2027, 2035, and the middle of this century, and detailed plans for ensuring food security [3][31][33]. 3.2 Investment Value Analysis of the Guozheng Grain Industry Index 3.2.1 Introduction - The Guozheng Grain Industry Index aims to reflect the stock price changes of grain - related listed companies. After revision, it focuses more on the seed and grain planting fields, with semi - annual sample adjustments [36]. 3.2.2 Market Value Distribution and Liquidity - As of April 15, 2025, the index has a diversified market - value distribution. In terms of liquidity, 78.36% of the component stocks' weights are in the top three groups of the past - year average daily trading volume [39][40][42]. 3.2.3 Industry Distribution - As of April 15, 2025, the index is highly concentrated in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and basic chemical industries at the Shenwan primary level, and mainly in the seed, livestock and poultry feed, and grain planting industries at the Shenwan tertiary level [44]. 3.2.4 Top Ten Weighted Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks of the index have a total weight of 52.74%, with a moderate concentration. They are mainly in the core sectors of the grain industry, and have a good profitability level [47]. 3.2.5 Reasonable Valuation - As of April 15, 2025, the index's P/E ratio is 24.17 times and the P/B ratio is 2.02 times, both at relatively low historical levels. The valuation center may rise as the grain industry opportunities approach [49]. 3.2.6 Performance - From November 4, 2009, to April 15, 2025, the total return of the index is 151.08%, with an annualized return of 6.33%. Its performance is better than that of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [51]. 3.3 Fund Products - The Penghua Guozheng Grain Industry ETF, listed on August 18, 2023, is the largest and most liquid ETF product tracking the Guozheng Grain Industry Index. It has three linked funds [5][57].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the Japanese government's release of over 300,000 tons of reserve rice, rice prices continue to rise, with the average retail price for a 5-kilogram bag reaching 4,220 yen, more than double the price from the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The average retail price of 5-kilogram rice has reached 4,220 yen (approximately 214.12 RMB), marking a record high and an increase of 92.1% year-on-year [2][11]. - The price of 2-kilogram rice ranges from 2,080 to 2,480 yen, equivalent to approximately 26.94 to 32.11 RMB per kilogram, indicating a continuous upward trend in rice prices [3]. Group 2: Supply Issues - Many supermarkets have implemented purchase limits due to rice shortages, with some stores displaying nearly empty rice shelves [1][2]. - The government has released 210,000 tons of reserve rice since March, but the circulation of this rice has been minimal, with only 426 tons reaching retailers by the end of March [7]. Group 3: Government Response - The Japanese government plans to release an additional 100,000 tons of reserve rice and will continue monthly releases until July, but the effectiveness of these measures remains in question [6][9]. - Criticism has arisen regarding the timing and scale of the reserve rice releases, with many consumers feeling that the government's actions have been too slow [6][8]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Increasingly, Japanese consumers are turning to imports from countries like South Korea, India, and Thailand, with reports of individuals bringing back rice during travels [4][5]. - The high rice prices are affecting consumer spending habits, leading to a more cautious approach to expenditures [11]. Group 5: Economic Impact - The rise in rice prices is contributing to overall inflation, with the core consumer price index rising by 3.2% in March, driven largely by food prices [11][12]. - Analysts suggest that the persistent inflation and rising food costs may complicate the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, potentially limiting future interest rate hikes [12].

证券研究报告 心中的「涨」声② ——玉米 2025年4月24日 行业评级：看好 | 分析师 | 钟凯锋 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | Zhongkaifeng@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230524050002 | | 分析师 | 张心怡 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | Zhangxinyi@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230524020002 | 摘要 ➢ 1、市场背景 美国、中国、巴西、阿根廷是全球玉米总产量最高的4个国家，其中美国是全球第一大玉米产国，占比32%，也是 全球第一大出口国。近年来，我国玉米生产总体呈稳定增长态势。进口量先增后减，2024年进口依赖度降至1.6%。 玉米消费需求主要包括饲用、工业用、食用、种用及其它。其中，饲料消费是玉米最大的消费去向，近年来一直 呈刚性增长。 ➢ 2、供需由宽松走向紧张 2025年，全球玉米供需收紧，国内供应压力同比或将减轻；养殖存栏量预期增加，或带动饲料消费刚性增长；内 需政策将促进玉米深加工行业消费，国内玉米供需将呈偏紧趋势，价格重心有望抬升。 ➢ 3、风险提示： 极端天 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the global corn supply - demand situation will tighten, and the domestic supply pressure may ease year - on - year. The expected increase in livestock inventory may drive the rigid growth of feed consumption, and domestic demand policies will boost the consumption of the corn deep - processing industry. The domestic corn supply - demand will be in a tight trend, and the price center is expected to rise [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Background - The United States, China, Brazil, and Argentina are the top four corn - producing countries in the world, with the US accounting for 32% of global production and being the largest exporter. China's corn production has shown a stable growth trend. In 2024, the import dependence dropped to 1.6%. Corn consumption mainly includes feed, industrial, food, seed, and other uses, with feed consumption being the largest and showing rigid growth [4] - China's corn industry chain includes planting, processing, circulation, and consumption. Feed and starch processing are at the core of the industry chain [13] - Global corn supply is concentrated in a few countries. The US and China are the top two producers, accounting for 32% and 23% respectively. The top four exporters are the US, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, with their combined exports accounting for nearly 70% of the global total in 2023/24 [16] - Global corn is concentrated in supply every six months. The growth cycles of China and the US in the Northern Hemisphere are similar, while Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere has two planting seasons [23] - The US and China are the largest corn consumers, with a combined consumption of over half of the global total in 2023/24. China's average annual growth rate of corn demand in the past decade was 4.3%, higher than the US's 0.6% [29] - Feed consumption is the largest use of corn, with a global consumption of 780 million tons in 2024, accounting for 63% of the total. The US is the largest in industrial consumption [34] - In China, corn planting is concentrated in the Northeast, North, and Southwest regions, with different planting patterns and acreage proportions in different areas [35][37] - China's corn production has been growing steadily. The planting area increased from 620 million mu to 670 million mu from 2020 - 2024, and the output increased from 261 million tons to 295 million tons. The import volume first increased and then decreased, with the import dependence dropping to 1.6% in 2024 [42] 3.2 Supply Decrease and Demand Increase - **Domestic Old - crop Corn**: The supply pressure has been reduced. The output increased slightly by 2.1% to 295 million tons in 2024/25. The import decreased by 49% to 1.377 million tons. The inventory is expected to drop by 87% to 230,000 tons, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased by 5 pct to 0.8% [49] - **Global Old - crop Corn**: The stock - to - use ratio decreased year - on - year. The estimated output (excluding China) in 2024/25 was adjusted up by 930,000 tons to 920 million tons, a 2.2% decrease. The ending inventory decreased by 16.1% to 86.47 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio dropped by 0.2 pct to 9.3%. The US corn export volume was adjusted up by 3 million tons to 65 million tons [55] - **Domestic New - crop Corn**: The supply growth has slowed down. The planting enthusiasm may be affected due to weak prices and reduced profits in 2024. The import volume is expected to decrease, with the predicted import volume in 2024/2025 being adjusted down by 2 million tons to 7 million tons [58][61] - **Demand**: Feed demand is expected to be supported by the increase in the number of sows and good pig - raising profits. Deep - processing demand is currently mainly for rigid needs, and domestic demand expansion policies are expected to boost it [66]

新华社北京4月23日电 题：凝心聚力打好农业开局仗 新华社记者胡璐、刘阳 谷雨时节种谷天，当前春耕生产已进入大忙时节。关键农时不容丝毫懈怠，各地务必把"持续增强 粮食等重要农产品供给保障能力"挺在前面，严格落实粮食安全党政同责，在精细上下功夫，环环紧扣 抓好春管春耕，千方百计实现农业生产良好开局。 粮食安全是"国之大者"，在当前国际环境变乱交织的背景下，怎么强调都不为过。粮食生产爬坡 难、滑坡易，上来慢、下去快。越是粮食产量历史性迈上新台阶，越要居安思危，不可麻痹松懈。春播 是全年粮食生产的大头，夏粮是全年粮食生产的第一季，抓好春季农业生产，对实现全年粮食目标任务 至关重要。 民非谷不食，谷非地不生。要实现农业生产良好开局，必须抓住耕地这个命根子，着力稳住春播粮 食种植面积，高质量推进高标准农田建设，提高建设标准和质量。与此同时，还应进一步健全粮食生产 支持政策体系，综合施策推动粮食等重要农产品价格保持在合理水平，维护好农民利益，调动农民种粮 积极性。 实现农业生产良好开局的要点，还在于因地制宜发展农业新质生产力。加快发展农业新质生产力是 我国从农业大国迈向农业强国的必由之路。要围绕粮食生产关键领域和薄弱环节 ...