本文节选自《2025中国银行业竞争力研究报告》。 21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 2025年，全球经济增长呈现"碎片化"特征，主要央行政策分化加剧外部不确 定性；国内经济总体保持平稳，但有效需求不足仍是主要挑战。在此背景下，中国银行业展现出较强韧 性：三季度上市银行净息差出现企稳迹象，中收修复提速，资产质量总体可控，信贷结构持续向新质生 产力领域优化。同时，金融监管体系在"防风险、强监管、促发展"的主线下加速完善，一系列重磅政策 的出台为银行业的稳健运行与高质量发展构筑了坚实的制度基础。展望未来，在宏观政策协同呵护与监 管持续引导下，银行业有望在平衡风险与发展的道路上稳步前行。 一、外部宏观环境分析：碎片化复苏与政策分化并存 2025 年前三季度全球经济呈现 "弱修复" 特征。IMF 在秋季《世界经济展望》中将全球增长预期从 3.0% 上调至 3.2%，但这一修正并非源于增长动能增强，而是风险冲击的"边际缓和"。一是美国关税政策冲 击"弱于初始评估"，私营部门通过供应链重构实现了适应性调整；二是人工智能技术扩散带动的生产力 提升，尤其在美欧科技产业表现显著。 经济增长的"碎片化"特征显著。发达经济体中，美国增速预 ...

会上，包头市人民政府分别与人民银行内蒙古自治区分行、内蒙古金融监管局、内蒙古证监局签订 战略合作备忘录。 与会人员一致认为，包头市作为老工业基地，当前正处于转型发展的关键时刻，离不开金融的全面 参与和有力支撑。希望以此次恳谈会为契机，推动各类金融政策与工具加快落地，引导银行、保险、证 券等各类金融资源向包头集聚。包头市将全力为各金融机构打造良好发展环境，努力实现扩大金融供 给、增强企业活力、有效防控风险的多赢。 11月20日，以"聚焦转型发展 凝聚金融力量"为主题的包头市政金恳谈会在呼和浩特召开。自治区 有关部门，中央、自治区、包头市各级金融部门、金融机构齐聚一堂，共谋金融支持包头老工业基地绿 色转型创新发展的路径措施。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares collectively declined on Thursday, with over 3,000 stocks falling and trading volume dropping to recent lows, indicating poor market profitability [1] - The banking sector showed resilience, with several state-owned banks rising over 3% [1] - As the year-end approaches, market participants are exhibiting a cautious trading attitude, leading to a significant reduction in A-share trading volume [1] Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience fluctuations around the 4000-point level, which may prepare for a potential upward movement [1] - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to see an improvement in supply and demand by 2026, which could lead to a notable recovery in the earnings growth of A-share listed companies [1] - Key focus areas for November include the impact of the 14th Five-Year Plan on industries, event-driven dynamics in the technology sector, and price recovery driven by anti-involution trends [1] Sector Highlights - The technology sector remains a focal point in November, with opportunities for rebound in underperforming areas such as robotics, military, and smart vehicles [2] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its trend towards domestic production, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military sector is projected to see a recovery in orders by 2025, with signs of bottoming out in the performance of various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth observed since Q3 2024 [2] - The banking sector has begun to see a rebound in mid-year performance growth following the impact of loan rate re-pricing, making it attractive to long-term institutional investors due to its dividend yield [2]

作为价值投资者的"圣经"，格雷厄姆先生在《证券分析》一书中，就对价值投资的回报写下了定义：赚取一个资产长期 现金流的回报。格雷厄姆先生认为，这个资产到底上市还是不上市，是债券还是股票，都不重要的。重要的是，投资回 报的关键在于现金流。最终股东赚取的是分红的钱，还是现金流再投资的回报，也不重要。 在形成了价值投资的定义后，格雷厄姆和其最好的学生巴菲特，又对投资者和投机者做了区分。投资者关注的所有事 情，都是围绕企业如何产生现金流来的。所以，巴菲特会强调好生意还是坏生意（不同生意赚现金流的难度不同），强 调对护城河的研究（护城河越强，现金流越稳定），强调优秀的管理层（好的管理层会善待股东）。 许多人会把价值投资和成长投资对立起来。事实上，价值投资者的对立面是投机。无论是低估值还是高成长，只要是从 获取现金流角度出发的投资，就是价值投资。这也是为什么，DCF估值模型能够经久不衰，成为衡量企业价值的重要工 具。 导读：爱因斯坦曾说"宇宙中最强大的力量不是原子弹，而是复利加时间。"复利效应的原理是，充分利用时间杠杆。时 间越长，得到的回报就越惊人。复利思维，也逐渐在大众理财中开始普及。 当上证指数时隔10年后重新回到4 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline on November 20, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.4% to 3931.05 points, and overall market sentiment remaining low [2][4]. Stock Market Analysis - The stock indices mostly declined, with the Shenzhen Component down by 0.76%, the ChiNext Index down by 1.12%, and the CSI 500 down by 0.67%. The total trading volume was 1.72 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous day's 1.74 trillion yuan [2][4]. - The market opened higher due to Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings, alleviating some concerns about the AI bubble, but overall sentiment remained weak due to unchanged LPR and limited expectations for market easing [4]. - Real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market were introduced, including measures from Foshan to promote healthy development in the real estate sector [4]. Bond Market Analysis - The bond market showed overall fluctuations, with the 30-year treasury futures down by 0.21% to 115.870 yuan. The 10-year and 5-year contracts saw slight increases [6][7]. - The People's Bank of China maintained a net injection of liquidity, conducting a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 110 billion yuan for the day [6][7]. - The LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, which aligns with market expectations [7]. Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market saw most prices decline, with energy products leading the drop. However, lithium carbonate prices surged, breaking through 100,000 yuan due to strong demand in the battery sector and tight supply [8][10]. - The price of lithium carbonate increased significantly, with a year-on-year consumption growth of approximately 44.5% in September [8]. Trading Hotspots - Recent popular sectors include dividends, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and domestic chips, with a focus on capital expenditure and technological advancements [11]. - The market is advised to balance investments in dividend stocks, micro-trading, and industry trends while monitoring policy drivers and international commodity prices [12].

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇11月21日｜澳新银行研究团队在报告中指出，尽管美国9月非农就业人数超预期增长，但失业率 仍在攀升，这凸显了劳动力市场存潜在脆弱性。美联储内部对于这一放缓是否足以支撑进一步降息，仍 存在明显分歧。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比在非农数据公布后表示，他对12月再次降息仍持谨慎态度。现 货现跌逾0.3%，报4061美元/盎司。 ...

本文字数：439，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财 阿驴 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数集体低开 上证指数跌0.87%，深成指跌1.76%，创业板指跌2.07%。全市场下跌个股超4800只。 2025.11. 21 没错，你们催了八百遍的「实体周边」 它！终！于！来！了！ 你不是一个人在奋斗，阿驴都懂。 | 全A | 涨 356 | | 平 224 | | 跌 4868 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 2000 | 3896.66c | -34.39 | -0.87% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 12752.72c | -228.10 | -1.76% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 2979.37 c | -62.97 | -2.07% | 盘面上，银行、煤炭、农业等板块涨幅居前；锂矿、存储器、CPO、冰雪旅游、半导体、水产等板 块跌幅居前。 09:21 港股开盘丨恒生指数低开1.45% 恒生指数低开1.45%，恒生科技指数跌2 ...

日本金融市场正上演一场"股债汇三杀"的风暴。德银发出警告称，当前日本市场的动荡比近期美国股市的波动更令人担忧，让人联想到2022年几 乎摧毁英国债市的危机，一场潜在的资本外逃风险正在积聚。 市场动荡在周四加剧。日经225指数低开低走，跌幅一度接近3%。个股方面，软银股价大跌11%，创下近期新低；铠侠股价盘中一度重挫16%。 与此同时，日元汇率跌至今年1月以来的最低水平，逼近可能引发日本央行干预的警戒线。 法国兴业银行全球策略师Albert Edwards也表达了类似的担忧，他将日本长期债券收益率的攀升形容为"极少被投资者重视的重大警示信号"。分 析师们警告，如果投资者对日本政府和央行维持低通胀的承诺失去信心，抛售日本资产的理由将变得充分，可能引发更具破坏性的资本外流。 债券市场同样承压，30年期日本国债收益率已升至数十年来的高位。 这一系列连锁反应的核心，源于市场对日本新政府财政政策的深切忧虑。据报道，日本政府计划推出自疫情以来最大规模的财政支出方案。德银 货币研究全球主管George Saravelos表示，这项庞大的刺激计划，叠加日本央行持续的鸽派立场，正引发市场对日本财政状况恶化的担忧，并动摇 投资者对 ...

09:21 港股开盘丨恒生指数低开1.45% 恒生指数低开1.45%，恒生科技指数跌2.21%。科网股全线回调，百度集团、腾讯音乐、哔哩哔哩跌逾 4%。半导体概念表现不振，中芯国际、华虹半导体跌超3%。 | HSTECH | 恒生科技 | m | 5451.51 c | -123.08 | -2.21% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | મટા | 恒生指数 | W | 25460.42c | -375.15 | -1.45% | 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数集体低开 上证指数跌0.87%，深成指跌1.76%，创业板指跌2.07%。全市场下跌个股超4800只。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 20 | 3896.66c | -34.39 | -0.87% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 5 | 12752.72c | -228.10 | -1.76% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | ma | 29 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Construction Bank (Shenzhen Bank) showcases its commitment to supporting the real economy and addressing public concerns through comprehensive financial services at the 19th Shenzhen International Financial Expo, focusing on five key areas of development [2][12]. Group 1: Technology-Driven Financial Services - Shenzhen Bank has established a digital financing platform for small and micro technology enterprises, providing tailored financial products and services, with a technology loan balance exceeding 2.44 trillion yuan, adding over 48 billion yuan in the first ten months of the year [3][5]. - The bank has developed a "circle-chain" service model for leading technology enterprises, offering customized digital industrial chain platforms and serving over 9,000 enterprises nationwide [5]. Group 2: Green Finance Initiatives - Shenzhen Bank has accelerated the innovation of green financial products, achieving a green loan growth rate exceeding 25% this year, significantly higher than the overall loan growth rate [6]. - The bank has actively supported emerging green industries, providing loans to nearly 1,000 enterprises and launching the first batch of "water-saving loans" in collaboration with local associations [6]. Group 3: Inclusive Finance - The bank has focused on enhancing financial services for small and micro enterprises, with a total inclusive loan balance of 364 billion yuan and serving over 106,000 clients as of October 2025 [7][8]. - Shenzhen Bank has implemented a digital and platform-based approach to improve the efficiency of financial services, successfully providing 3.88 million yuan in emergency financing to a small jewelry company [7][8]. Group 4: Elderly Care Financial Services - In response to the aging population, Shenzhen Bank has developed a comprehensive pension financial service system, integrating various products and services to meet the diverse needs of elderly clients [9]. - The bank has established specialized financial service outlets and teams to provide tailored investment and financial education services for seniors [9]. Group 5: Digital Currency Applications - As a pilot institution for digital RMB, Shenzhen Bank has launched the "Digital RMB Smart Payment Worry-Free Platform" to address consumer pain points in the prepaid sector, covering 1,569 merchants and providing services to 960,000 consumers [11]. - The bank plans to expand the application of digital RMB in various prepaid scenarios, including elderly care and sports services [11].