Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector, indicating expected performance above the market index [3][41]. Core Views - The overall consumption growth remains stable, with retail sales in August 2025 reaching CNY 3.97 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The growth in commodity retail sales was 3.6%, while catering revenue grew by 2.1% [1][14]. - The report highlights that individual stock performance will be more significant than overall industry trends in the current market environment, emphasizing the importance of stock selection [1][11]. Summary by Sections Beauty and Personal Care - The third quarter is typically a slow season for the cosmetics industry, but marketing efforts have been advanced in preparation for Q4 promotions. Despite a supportive year-on-year growth forecast, rising online channel costs and a lack of product innovation are expected to increase expense ratios, leading to continued stock differentiation within the sector [1][12]. Gold and Jewelry - In August 2025, the gold and jewelry sector saw a retail sales increase of 16.8% year-on-year. The sector is expected to perform well due to low base effects and rising gold prices. Products that appeal to younger consumers, such as fixed-price gold items, are anticipated to see growth above the industry average [1][12]. Supermarkets and Department Stores - From January to August 2025, department store retail sales slightly increased by 1.2%, while supermarket sales grew by 4.9%. The sector is undergoing a transformation, and companies are expected to stabilize their performance in the second half of the year, setting the stage for a potential rebound in 2026 [2][12]. Cross-Border E-commerce - Major companies in the cross-border e-commerce sector are expected to benefit from steady overseas demand and domestic product innovation. However, profit margins may vary due to external environmental disruptions. Leading domestic platforms are seen as resilient against risks due to their strong product capabilities and flexible tariff strategies [2][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including: - Beauty and Personal Care: Upgrading products and refining channel operations are expected to enhance market share for domestic leaders like Shiseido, Aokang Technology, and others [3][41]. - Gold and Jewelry: Companies focusing on differentiated designs and fixed-price products, such as Chow Tai Fook and Man Ka Long, are expected to benefit from current market conditions [3][41]. - Offline Retail: Companies like Miniso and Yonghui Supermarket are highlighted for their potential to improve performance amid a stable domestic demand environment [3][41]. - Cross-Border E-commerce: Companies with strong risk resilience, such as Small Commodity City and Focus Technology, are recommended for investment during market dips [3][41].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the emergence of "hard gold" as a new category in the Chinese gold jewelry industry, showcasing its unique appeal and potential for global expansion through the "New Silk Road Innovation Gold Jewelry Export Plan" initiated by the World Gold Council [2][19]. Group 1: Definition and Market Position - Hard gold is defined as high-purity gold (gold content ≥ 99.9%) that utilizes "electroforming" and "lost-wax casting" techniques to enhance hardness and wear resistance, making it popular among younger consumers [3][6]. - As of 2024, hard gold is projected to account for over 20% of China's gold jewelry retail sales, indicating its rapid rise in the market [3][8]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - Hard gold achieves a hardness of over 60 Vickers without altering the purity of traditional gold, allowing for complex designs and structures that were previously unfeasible [6][12]. - The use of advanced technologies such as 3D printing and ultrasonic techniques in the production of hard gold enhances its design possibilities and market appeal [12][16]. Group 3: Cultural and Design Aspects - The integration of traditional Eastern cultural elements and non-heritage craftsmanship into hard gold designs has broadened its international market appeal, particularly in regions like the Middle East and Southeast Asia [12][13]. - The recent establishment of the "Hard Gold Jewelry" industry standard (QB/T5793-2024) aims to standardize the category, ensuring quality and safety in production [8][19]. Group 4: Global Expansion Strategy - The "New Silk Road Innovation Gold Jewelry Export Plan" aims to connect the Chinese gold jewelry industry with global markets, promoting hard gold as a competitive product on the international stage [19][20]. - Challenges such as tax policies, local market understanding, and establishing partnerships with local distributors are acknowledged as critical for successful international expansion [17][19]. Group 5: Market Opportunities - The article emphasizes the significant market opportunities for hard gold, particularly among younger consumers who seek stylish and unique jewelry options [6][13]. - The shift from traditional gold to hard gold represents a structural transformation in the gold jewelry industry, positioning China as a trendsetter rather than a follower in the global market [20].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.19% closing at 3889.50 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.93% at 13231.47 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.11% at 3078.76 points. The STAR 50 Index, however, increased by 1.40% to 1473.02 points. Overall, there were 1682 stocks that rose while 3628 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 23547 billion yuan, a decrease of 1609 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, only a few sectors such as non-ferrous metals, environmental protection, steel, national defense and military industry, banking, and computing saw gains, with respective increases of 3.35%, 1.65%, 1.49%, 0.86%, 0.74%, and 0.22%. Conversely, the automotive, home appliances, beauty care, media, and pharmaceutical industries experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 2.33%, 1.74%, 1.58%, 1.54%, and 1.47% respectively [1][2]. Concept Sectors - The leading concept sectors in terms of gains today included rare earths, rare earth permanent magnets, photoresists, semiconductor silicon wafers, rare metals, SMIC, lithium battery electrolytes, wafer industry, small metals, operating systems, semiconductor materials, gold and jewelry, continuous boards, pre-increase, and cobalt mines [2][11].

Group 1: Recruitment and Qualifications - The recruitment for China Gold Group emphasizes adherence to party policies, political discipline, and the company's values, requiring candidates to demonstrate a strong sense of responsibility and integrity [2] - Candidates must be around 50 years old, with a minimum of six years until retirement age, and have at least five years of party membership [2] - Individuals with certain disqualifying conditions, such as criminal convictions or expulsion from the Communist Party, are not eligible to apply [2] Group 2: Company Overview - China Gold Group is the only central enterprise in China's gold industry, owning four listed companies, including "Zhongjin Gold," the first gold company listed on the A-share market [4] - The company was established in 2006 and officially listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in February 2021, focusing on gold jewelry production and sales [4] - It operates a multi-brand matrix under the "China Gold" brand, with over 3,600 specialty stores and 30 brand service centers across the country [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, China Gold's revenue was 31.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 46.3% to 319 million yuan [5] - The decline in sales was attributed to a significant drop in gold product sales, which reduced total gross profit and subsequently impacted overall profit and net profit [5] Group 4: Stock Performance - As of October 13, the stock price of China Gold (600916.SH) increased by 1.06%, reaching 8.59 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 14.431 billion yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Industry Association has issued a warning regarding illegal activities in the gold trading sector, specifically highlighting the involvement of three companies in online gambling disguised as gold trading [2]. Group 1: Industry Issues - Three gold jewelry companies in Shenzhen's Shui Bei area have been investigated for allegedly engaging in illegal gambling activities under the guise of gold trading, leading to criminal charges against their executives [2]. - The warning letter indicates that these companies were involved in "non-physical gold betting" through online platforms, which deviates from normal business operations in the gold jewelry industry and disrupts market order [2]. - Reports have emerged of over ten gold traders in the Shui Bei area facing operational difficulties, with some having already vacated their premises, raising concerns about the sustainability of certain trading models [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The international gold price has shown strong performance, with the price per gram of gold jewelry in Shui Bei surpassing 900 yuan, indicating a shift in consumer behavior in the gold jewelry market [3]. - The prevalence of borrowing, consignment, and sale behaviors in the gold jewelry industry has led to disputes, highlighting the risks associated with existing trading models such as private betting and illegal off-market circulation [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The Secretary-General of the Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Industry Association has encouraged merchants to utilize legitimate hedging tools to mitigate price volatility risks and is advocating for enhanced industry self-regulation and transaction model optimization [3]. - The association is exploring the introduction of third-party regulatory mechanisms to improve oversight in the gold trading sector [3].

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Association issued a warning regarding three gold jewelry companies in the Shui Bei area, which were found to be involved in illegal gambling activities disguised as gold trading [1] - The companies were conducting "non-physical gold betting" through online platforms, leading to serious legal consequences for their executives and staff [1] - The warning highlights the risks posed by certain companies that exploit the gold trading facade to lure customers into high-leverage betting transactions, disrupting market order and damaging the industry's reputation [1] Industry Developments - Recent strong performance in international gold prices has seen the price per gram of Shui Bei gold jewelry exceed 900 yuan [2] - The high gold prices have led to changes in consumer behavior, with increased disputes arising from borrowing, selling, and consignment practices within the gold jewelry sector [2] - The association's secretary general, Zhang Wenyang, encourages merchants to use legitimate hedging tools to mitigate price volatility risks and is advocating for enhanced industry self-regulation and transaction model optimization [2] - The association also emphasizes the inherent risks in precious metal investments and advises investors to make informed and prudent decisions based on reliable information [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a historical high, influenced by international gold prices, leading to an increase in domestic gold jewelry prices [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - International gold prices have led to a surge in domestic gold jewelry prices, with the price per gram exceeding 1190 yuan [1] - Chow Tai Fook increased its gold price from 1180 yuan/gram to 1190 yuan/gram [1] - Chow Sang Sang raised its gold price from 1176 yuan/gram to 1188 yuan/gram [1] - Lao Miao Gold adjusted its gold price from 1183 yuan/gram to 1189 yuan/gram [1]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月13日 商贸零售行业 10 月投资策略暨三季报前瞻 优于大市 消费整体平稳增长，把握细分板块配置机遇 4）跨境电商：三季度主要企业预计收入端仍受益于海外需求稳步增长和国 内优质产品创新助推，但利润端受外部环境扰动预计分化明显。当前外部关 贸环境虽仍有变数，但国内优质头部平台型企业通过灵活的关税应对措施， 以及坚实的产品力壁垒，长期来看已经具备了强抗风险韧性。 投资建议：维持板块"优于大市"评级。在大盘水位走高下消费板块滞涨已 久，Q4 在海内外旺季及大促的基本面带动下，存在板块轮动下的补涨机会。 1）美容护理：存量市场下，产品积极迭代升级，渠道精细化运营的国货龙 头有望持续提升市占率，推荐：上美股份、青木科技、毛戈平、上海家化、 登康口腔、若羽臣等。2）黄金珠宝：在当前金价持续高位以及工艺进步下 为黄金品类赋予了悦己和保值两大新消费特质，积极通过差异化设计布局一 口价产品的企业，有望持续受益，推荐：潮宏基、周大福、曼卡龙等。3） 线下零售：板块整体偏内需为主，受外部环境扰动影响较小，短期可关注兼 具改善主线和低估值低位置标的：名创优品、重庆百货、永辉超市等。4） 跨境电商：外 ...

"哎，你最近看黄金价格了吗？这几天咋又掉下来了？"早上喝豆浆的时候，隔壁桌的大姐一边刷手机一边感叹，"昨天我去商场看了一圈，金价都开始松动 了，老凤祥那金条都比上个月便宜了好几十块。"这话一出，旁边几个也开始凑热闹，毕竟黄金这玩意，谁家不多少关注点。 为什么金价最近又掉了？其实金价下跌的背后，原因挺复杂。最近国际黄金市场波动比较大，一方面是美元走强，另一方面全球经济数据有变化，投资者信 心波动，就导致金价回调。 说白了，黄金一直被看作"避险资产"。经济形势紧张时它涨，市场稳定或美元强势时它跌。最近国际市场气氛稍缓，加上投资资金流出黄金市场，自然价格 就掉了。 有朋友打趣说："我这金项链刚买完，它就掉价了。"这确实挺常见的事儿。黄金属于商品，也有市场起伏，买首饰更多是图个喜庆和保值，真要赚价差，得 看时机。 对比一下品牌金店，这价格差了将近200多元一克。有人说，水贝那买金就像去源头拿货，确实便宜，但也得懂门道，毕竟工费、纯度、证书这些都得看清 楚。 这么一对比，差价最高能拉到七八十块一克。同样买100克，那可差七八千块钱。这价格要是放在买首饰、买金条上，绝对值得多跑几家。 水贝市场的黄金价让人心动再看深圳水贝 ...

Core Insights - Shenzhen's gold and jewelry industry is facing legal scrutiny as three companies in the Shui Bei area have been implicated in illegal gambling activities disguised as gold trading [1] - The industry association has issued a warning highlighting the risks associated with non-physical gold betting practices that deviate from legitimate gold trading [1][2] Group 1: Legal Issues - Three gold jewelry companies in Shenzhen Shui Bei have been investigated for allegedly operating illegal gambling activities under the guise of gold trading [1] - The companies were found to be engaging in "non-physical gold betting" through online platforms, which constitutes a violation of gambling laws [1] - Company executives and key personnel have been subjected to criminal enforcement measures, indicating serious legal repercussions for those involved [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The international gold price has shown strong performance, with the price per gram of gold in Shui Bei surpassing 900 yuan [2] - The high gold prices have led to changes in consumer behavior, with increased disputes arising from borrowing, selling, and consignment practices in the jewelry sector [2] - Long-standing trading practices in the Shui Bei market, such as private betting and illegal off-market transactions, are now considered high-risk [2] Group 3: Industry Response - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Industry Association is encouraging merchants to utilize legitimate hedging tools to mitigate price volatility risks [2] - The association is also promoting self-regulation within the industry and exploring the introduction of third-party oversight mechanisms [2] - Investors are advised to make informed and prudent decisions based on reliable information, acknowledging the inherent risks in precious metal investments [2]