Core Viewpoint - The meeting highlighted that China's industrial economy has maintained stable operation in 2023, showcasing resilience and vitality, with continuous optimization of industrial structure and significant achievements in high-quality development [1] Group 1: Industrial Performance - In the first half of the year, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with manufacturing added value growing by 7% [2] - The added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 10.2% and 9.5% respectively, while the total volume of telecommunications business grew by 9.3% and revenue from software and information technology services rose by 11.9% [2] - By the end of June, there were 4.55 million 5G base stations and 10.43 million operational computing standard racks [2] Group 2: Key Focus Areas for the Second Half - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) emphasized eight key areas for the second half of the year, including implementing strategies to expand domestic demand and promoting high-quality development of key industrial chains [2] - There will be a focus on enhancing technological innovation and the integration of industry and technology, as well as deepening the application of digital technology [2] - The MIIT plans to promote green development and improve industrial energy efficiency, while also enhancing the quality of the information and communication industry [2] Group 3: Industry Governance and Structural Adjustments - The MIIT will soon release a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, focusing on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and the elimination of outdated production capacity [3] - The ministry will initiate actions to cultivate new momentum in emerging industrial sectors, including humanoid robots and the Internet of Things [3] - Policies will be developed to support the digital transformation of industries and enhance the quality of industrial software [3] Group 4: Anti-Competition Measures - The MIIT confirmed its commitment to consolidating the results of "anti-involution" measures in the new energy vehicle sector and strengthening governance in key industries like photovoltaics [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved into a coordinated policy system that benefits industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, agriculture, and cyclical goods [5][6] - The ongoing strengthening of "anti-involution" policies is expected to become a sustained investment theme, although comprehensive implementation of related policies is still pending [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience and vitality of China's industrial economy in 2023, highlighting the continuous optimization of industrial structure and the achievement of high-quality development. Group 1: Industrial Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with manufacturing added value growing by 7% [1] - The added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 10.2% and 9.5% respectively [1] - The total volume of telecommunications business grew by 9.3%, while revenue from software and information technology services rose by 11.9% [1] - By the end of June, there were 4.55 million 5G base stations and 10.43 million computing standard racks in use [1] Group 2: Key Focus Areas for the Second Half - The government will focus on eight key areas, including expanding domestic demand, promoting high-quality development of key industrial chains, and enhancing technological innovation [1] - There will be a push for deeper integration of digital technology and industrialization, as well as a commitment to green development and improving industrial energy efficiency [1] - The government aims to strengthen the cultivation system for quality enterprises and deepen reforms to enhance industry governance [1] Group 3: Specific Actions and Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of ten key industry growth actions to enhance consumption and adapt supply and demand [2] - There will be a focus on promoting structural adjustments and eliminating backward production capacity in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials [3] - Policies will be developed to support the growth of emerging industries and enhance the integration of culture and industry [3] Group 4: "Anti-Competition" Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has stated its commitment to consolidating the results of "anti-competition" measures in the new energy vehicle sector and improving governance in key industries like photovoltaics [4] - Analysts suggest that the "anti-competition" policy has evolved into a comprehensive policy system that will benefit industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, agriculture, and cyclical products [4][5]

周观点0727：反内卷持续发酵， 雅下水电催动行情 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 2025-07-28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 | 分析师 邬博华 | 分析师 曹海花 | 分析师 司鸿历 | 分析师 叶之楠 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080002 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 | | SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 | | SFC执业证书编号：BVD284 | | | 分析师 袁澎 | 分析师 王耀 | 分析师 任佳惠 | 分析师 周圣钧 | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524010001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120006 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524070005 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120003 | %% %% 图：本周电新板块行 ...

Group 1 - The non-public economy in China is a crucial foundation for economic stability, a significant source of national tax revenue, a key player in technological innovation, and an important force for sustainable economic development [1][2] - Since the 18th National Congress, the Chinese government has emphasized the healthy development of the non-public economy and the growth of non-public economic individuals, providing strong motivation for high-quality development [1][2] - The number of private enterprises accounts for over 92% of the total number of enterprises in China, with more than 420,000 high-tech private enterprises, highlighting the importance of the private economy in promoting modernization and high-quality development [2] Group 2 - Technological innovation is reshaping industry dynamics, with leaders like Wang Jian pioneering distributed cloud computing architectures and enhancing China's global standing in cloud computing [3] - Companies like Changchun Xuyang Industrial Group and LONGi Green Energy are transitioning from traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing and achieving record efficiencies in solar technology through innovation [4] - The commitment to innovation and high-quality development is evident in the efforts of various leaders who are enhancing core competitiveness and integrating into new development paradigms [4] Group 3 - Leaders in the private sector, such as Wang Yu of Spring Airlines, are driven by a vision to make air travel accessible, achieving significant growth in fleet size and expanding services to underserved regions [5] - Zhang Shirong of Wisdom Palace International Cultural Communication Group emphasizes the importance of cultural exchange, establishing Chinese language programs in multiple Arab countries and reaching over 1 million learners [6] - The dedication of non-public economic individuals to national development is reflected in their efforts to align personal growth with the broader goals of the country [6] Group 4 - The 2024 report by the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce highlights exemplary cases of social responsibility among private enterprises, including initiatives in rural revitalization and green development [7] - Companies like Chongqing Huasen Pharmaceutical are leveraging their expertise to support rural communities through standardized cultivation of traditional Chinese medicine [7] - Ningbo Fubon Holding Group integrates ecological development with business growth, establishing a resource recovery network that has recycled over 500,000 tons of resources in five years [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in futures prices related to "anti-involution" has drawn significant attention, with major contracts experiencing sharp declines after previous gains driven by policy expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On July 28, key contracts such as coking coal, glass, soda ash, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and coke hit their daily limit down, while alumina fell over 6% and polysilicon nearly 6% [2]. - The "anti-involution" policies initiated by the Central Financial Committee aimed at regulating low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which initially led to price increases in related sectors [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The market's reaction to the "anti-involution" policies has been largely speculative, with actual market conditions not reflecting the same intensity as the futures market [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding the implementation of actual production restrictions or capacity reduction policies remains a critical variable influencing the rebound potential of commodity prices [2]. Group 3: Impacts on Stakeholders - For futures investors, the rapid price increases present potential profit opportunities but also significant risks, as irrational price surges could lead to a bubble that may burst if policy expectations are not met [3]. - Related industry companies may see improved market expectations due to rising futures prices, but they also face challenges such as inventory buildup if price increases do not effectively transmit downstream [3]. - Companies are encouraged to focus on long-term development through innovation and cost control rather than relying solely on price increases to enhance their operational conditions [3].

Group 1 - The industrial and information technology sector will implement a new round of ten key industry stabilization actions to consolidate the industrial economy [1] - There will be a focus on accelerating the development and application of technologies such as artificial intelligence terminals, ultra-high-definition video, smart wearables, and drones [1] - The sector aims to enhance the self-controllability of key industrial chains and strengthen the guarantee of strategic mineral resources [1] Group 2 - Efforts will be made to improve industrial energy efficiency and promote green development, particularly in the management of recycling lithium batteries from electric vehicles and bicycles [2] - The promotion of 5G and gigabit optical networks will be prioritized, along with the orderly advancement of computing power center construction [2] - A system for cultivating high-quality enterprises will be established, and policies will be introduced to support the development of specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises [2]

Group 1 - The commodity futures market experienced a significant decline on July 28, with major contracts such as coking coal, glass, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, coke, and soda ash either closing at limit down prices or continuously falling during the session [1] - From June 24 to July 25, various commodities saw substantial price increases, with hot-rolled coil and rebar rising over 12%, iron ore, alumina, and manganese silicon around 15%, soda ash and coke approximately 25%, and glass, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon exceeding 30%. Notably, polysilicon and coking coal surged over 50% [1] - The recent price surge was partly due to technical factors, as some commodities had been in a long-term downtrend and were accumulating rebound momentum. For instance, lithium carbonate fell from a high of 273,700 yuan/ton to below 60,000 yuan/ton, a cumulative drop of over 78% [2] Group 2 - The market's expectation shift is crucial for a reversal in trends, with the narrative of addressing "involution" competition being a key factor. Industries like photovoltaics and coal have already taken substantial actions against involution, which could lead to a strong rebound if a consensus is reached [2] - The supply-demand dynamics of bulk commodities are unlikely to change significantly in the short term without sudden supply shocks, with short-term volatility driven more by irrational factors [2] - Addressing "involution" competition is a long-term challenge, requiring systematic planning and sustained efforts across various industries. For example, in the photovoltaic sector, merely controlling supply is insufficient to resolve the industry's overall loss situation [3] Group 3 - The futures market's primary function is price discovery, and short-term volatility can hinder this function. For instance, a sudden price surge may lead companies to mistakenly believe the market is improving, prompting them to increase production, which could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances if prices subsequently drop [3] - The development of the futures market relies on actual commercial activities, and greater participation from real enterprises can help futures prices better reflect supply and demand relationships, providing effective price references and risk management tools for production [3]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated investigations into multiple listed companies for violations related to financial data misrepresentation and information disclosure, reflecting a "zero tolerance" approach towards financial fraud and a commitment to stricter regulation in the securities market [1][3][6]. Group 1: Investigated Companies - *ST Muban (603398) is under investigation for suspected false disclosures in its annual reports and other periodic financial statements, having previously received warnings from regulatory authorities [1][3]. - Taiyuan Heavy Industry (600169) and Ruibeka (600439) are also being investigated for information disclosure violations, with both companies having received prior warnings from regulators [1][6]. - *ST Muban has shifted its business focus from educational toys to solar energy after acquiring Inner Mongolia Haoan Energy Technology Co., Ltd., but reported a net loss of 1.16 billion yuan for 2024 due to oversupply and fierce competition in the solar industry [3][4]. Group 2: Specific Violations - *ST Muban has been found to have committed four major violations, including incorrect financial information disclosures, improper use of raised funds, and multiple errors in its annual report [3][4]. - Taiyuan Heavy Industry has experienced significant fluctuations in its net profit from 2022 to 2024, with figures of 88.92 million yuan, -16.64 million yuan, and 28.02 million yuan respectively, and has been cited for failing to disclose major lawsuits and related party transactions in a timely manner [6]. - Ruibeka reported a net loss of 118 million yuan in 2024, marking its first loss since going public, and has been cited for multiple disclosure failures, including non-disclosure of non-operating fund transactions with related parties [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - The Jiangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau has mandated corrective actions for *ST Muban and its executives, including warnings and recording violations in their integrity files [4]. - The Henan Securities Regulatory Bureau has also imposed administrative measures on Ruibeka, requiring corrective actions and issuing warnings to responsible individuals [7]. - *ST Wanfang, primarily engaged in agriculture and military industries, has faced trading risk warnings due to its financial performance, with a reported net profit of 10.65 million yuan and a negative net profit of -460.13 million yuan after excluding non-recurring gains [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a bull phase, with significant losses reported among short sellers in commodity and stock index futures. The article suggests that the most certain investment opportunities in a bull market are either in leading sectors or in severely undervalued stocks [2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes that low-priced stocks tend to be driven up to reasonable levels during a bull market, indicating that underperforming sectors may see substantial gains due to ongoing liquidity and policy support [2]. - The upcoming major meetings are expected to enhance expectations for "stabilizing growth," which may provide considerable policy space for undervalued industries [2]. Group 2: ETF Analysis - The article utilizes the net value percentile calculation method to assess which sectors are currently in a state of severe undervaluation [3]. - A table is provided showing various ETFs, their net value percentiles since 2023 and 2024, and their performance in 2025, highlighting sectors like photovoltaic, alcohol, and real estate [7]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic sector is identified as particularly undervalued, with ETFs like the photovoltaic ETF (515790.SH) and new energy ETF (516160.SH) showing significant declines. The sector's performance is closely tied to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [9][10]. - The alcohol sector, particularly the alcohol ETF (512690.SH), is also noted for being in a state of decline, with a lack of clear catalysts for recovery until consumer data improves [20][21]. - The real estate sector shows signs of divergence, with the real estate ETF (159707.SZ) experiencing intermittent policy-driven rallies but ultimately returning to lower levels [25][26]. Group 4: Medical and Pharmaceutical Sector - The medical and pharmaceutical sectors are highlighted as being collectively undervalued, with various ETFs like the biopharmaceutical ETF (159859.SZ) showing potential for recovery due to recent policy shifts regarding procurement practices [33][35]. - The medical ETF (512170.SH) is also mentioned as being in a relatively low valuation position, with a modest performance outlook [39]. Group 5: Commodity and Chemical Sectors - The coal sector has seen a significant price drop but is experiencing a rebound due to rising prices in coking coal and coke futures, with the coal ETF (515220.SH) reflecting this trend [43][45]. - The chemical sector is noted for its broad product range and recent price increases in lithium carbonate, with the chemical ETF (159870.SZ) positioned as relatively undervalued [49][54]. Conclusion - The article concludes that sectors such as chemicals, biopharmaceuticals, medical, alcohol, and photovoltaic are currently in a state of severe undervaluation, presenting potential investment opportunities for discerning investors [56].

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800.HK) announced a significant reduction in shareholding by major shareholder Zhu Gongshan, raising concerns due to unusual language in the announcement, indicating that this is not a typical share reduction [1][2] Group 1: Shareholding Changes - Zhu Gongshan's shareholding decreased from 6.405 billion shares to 5.295 billion shares, representing approximately 18.59% of the company's total issued shares [1] - The announcement mentioned that Zhu Gongshan has engaged legal counsel and is taking appropriate actions to comply with the Securities and Futures Ordinance [2] - The company indicated that past announcements may need updates, suggesting potential discrepancies in previous disclosures [2] Group 2: Company Performance and Industry Context - GCL-Poly is a leading enterprise in the photovoltaic upstream materials sector, with a projected production capacity of 260,000 tons by 2024, despite facing a loss of 4.75 billion yuan in 2024 due to industry-wide downturns [3] - The company is part of the GCL Group, which has a total asset scale of nearly 200 billion yuan and ranks among the Global 500 for several consecutive years [3] - The photovoltaic industry is showing signs of recovery, with significant price increases in polysilicon products, indicating a potential positive shift in market conditions [6] Group 3: Financial Strategies and Innovations - GCL-Poly is exploring diversification by engaging in stablecoin business, collaborating with Taibao Investment Hong Kong to develop infrastructure for asset tokenization [7] - This initiative aims to broaden financing channels and promote the transparency and standardization of green low-carbon assets [7]