Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trajectory of China's alumina industry, projecting a production increase and emphasizing the importance of market insights for investment decisions [1] Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's alumina production is expected to reach 8.01 million tons by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [1] - The cumulative alumina production in China for 2025 is projected to be 92.446 million tons, with an overall growth of 8% [1] Companies Involved - Listed companies in the alumina sector include China Aluminum (601600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Shenhuo Co. (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Hongchuang Holdings (002379), Minfa Aluminum (002578), and Ningbo Fubang (600768) [1] Research and Consulting - Zhiyan Consulting is identified as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions through professional insights and quality services [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index experienced a pullback after an initial rise, while the ChiNext Index opened high but fell, dropping over 1% at one point. The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,600 stocks in the market declined [1] Sector Performance - Resource stocks led the market, with precious metals, oil and gas, and electrolytic aluminum sectors showing significant gains. Notable performances included China Gold with four consecutive trading limits, Hunan Gold with three consecutive limits, and China Aluminum hitting a 16-year high. The dispersed dye concept also saw collective gains, with Zhejiang Longsheng and others reaching trading limits. In contrast, the pharmaceutical and photovoltaic sectors faced declines, with stocks like Baipusais and Bibete dropping over 10% [1] Analyst Insights - Tianfeng Securities suggests that gold still has considerable upside potential, driven by inflation expectations, real interest rates, and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to economic and policy uncertainties. Central bank purchases are also expected to support gold prices [2] - According to招商证券, the spring market rally is likely to continue, with an average duration of about 70 days historically, and a median increase of approximately 13.7% for the Shanghai Composite Index. The current spring rally began on December 17, 2025, and is expected to last longer due to the late timing of the Chinese New Year and the current slow bull market environment. Recommended sectors include electronics, media, machinery, power equipment, basic chemicals, and social services [3] - 中金公司 indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts from January to May, with potential cuts of 1-2 times after the new chair takes office in mid-May. The upcoming appointment of the new chair and issues related to the Fed's independence are expected to be market focal points [4]

长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：油价走强及低库存支撑，隔夜伦铝收涨 1.59%创四年新高；市场投机性上涨 行情持续主导铝价走强，淡季叠加高铝价压制消费，然成本及 AI 高需为铝价提供支撑，今现铝或大 涨。 【铝期货市场】：油价走强及低库存支撑，隔夜伦铝走势强劲，最新收盘报价3264美元/吨，收涨51美 元，涨幅1.59%创下四年新高，成交量47447手增加24242手，持仓量698668手增加2711手。晚间沪铝高 开走强，盘中涨势居前，主力月2603合约最新收盘价报25330元/吨，涨465元，涨幅1.87%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月28日伦铝最新库存量报499975公吨，较上个交易日减少2275吨，跌幅 0.45%。 长江铝业网讯：1月28日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报24260元/吨，涨390元；广东现货A00铝锭价 报24240元/吨，涨380元。 宏观层面，当地时间 1 月 28 日，美联储 FOMC 货币政策会议纪要显示，其决定维持联邦基金利率目标 区间在 3.5%至 3.75%之间，符合市场预期，不过市场对此反应冷淡。本轮铝价大涨，主要得益于市场 投机性行情的持续，以及高盛集团将上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight decline observed on January 29, 2023, after reaching a high of $3,294 per ton [1] Group 1: LME Aluminum Futures Performance - On January 29, 2023, LME aluminum futures opened at $3,285 per ton and were reported at $3,262 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.05% [1] - The highest price during the trading session was $3,294 per ton, while the lowest was $3,251 per ton [1] - On January 28, 2023, the LME aluminum futures had an opening price of $3,220 per ton, a highest price of $3,314 per ton, a lowest price of $3,219 per ton, and a closing price of $3,263.5 per ton, marking a 1.59% increase [1] Group 2: Market Updates and Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved the registration of "QY" brand aluminum ingots produced by Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum Co., with a registered capacity of 800,000 tons, which will be eligible for delivery under aluminum futures contracts [1] - As of January 28, 2023, the spot price ratio of electrolytic aluminum between Shanghai and London was 7.68, with an import loss of -1,953.93 yuan per ton, improving from -2,240.15 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - The LME reported aluminum registered warrants of 474,400 tons, with 25,575 tons canceled and an increase of 2,825 tons, leading to a total aluminum inventory of 499,975 tons, which decreased by 2,275 tons [1]

由于美国约七成的初级铝进口高度依赖加拿大，且两国未能达成免税豁免协议，每吨铝的关税成本已飙升至1425美元以上。这种结构性成本位移迫使现货供 应商通过提高溢价来覆盖税收负担。 同时，市场供应端极度紧缺加剧了价格波动，贸易政策不确定性导致进口商补货意愿降低，美国国内现货库存处于历史低位。交易员普遍反映，尽管LME 国际铝价相对平稳，但在美国本土采购实物金属的溢价部分已占到总采购成本的近40%。 根据Fastmarkets最新数据，美国中西部铝溢价周三飙升至每磅1.005美元，刷新历史高位。这一涨幅延续了自6月初以来的强势表现——当时特朗普政府对铝 进口加征50%关税政策生效，推动该溢价首度突破64美分纪录。自6月以来，该溢价持续突破前期高点，累计涨幅已超过100%，形成罕见的持续上行通道。 由于关税，过去一年大部分时间里，美国铝价上涨速度一直快于国际铝价。这种极端定价环境还对美国实体经济产生负面影响，下游汽车制造、航空航天及 建筑包装等行业面临盈利挑战。 随着铝材总价突破每吨5200美元，许多依赖长期合约采购的企业发现实际支付成本远超预算，部分工厂因原材料短缺或成本倒挂而被迫减产。 美国铝业市场迎来历史性时刻， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various industries including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products, providing insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price outlooks for each sector. It also offers trading strategies and risk considerations for different products [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market showed a high - level breakthrough. The price increase was due to a combination of macro factors, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. However, the domestic fundamentals are under pressure, with supply growing and demand being suppressed. In the long - term, aluminum prices are expected to be strong, but there is a risk of a short - term correction [2]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is oscillating strongly due to geopolitical factors, but the high production restricts the upward space, and the subsequent demand has a downward pressure [3]. - **Iron Ore**: As steel mills' restocking is nearing completion, the iron ore price is under pressure. It is expected to face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may be short - sold around 800 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: As the end of the month approaches, the market focuses on inventory changes. If the inventory decline is less than expected, the Malaysian palm oil may stop rising and fall. The domestic palm oil futures are oscillating, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand firm above 9300 [4]. - **Gold**: The weakening of the US dollar drives the gold price to a new high. In the long - term, the gold price has an upward space, but in the short - term, it is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [5][6]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market was oscillating narrowly. The four major stock index futures contracts were also oscillating. The market has obvious trading differences, and it is recommended to control portfolio risks and reduce futures positions [7][8][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly. The long - term bonds are likely to remain in a box - shaped oscillation. It is recommended to operate within the range and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [10][11]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market is strengthening. The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and geopolitical risks support the price. Gold is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices, and silver and platinum - palladium also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [12][15][16]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price was oscillating. The high copper price suppresses downstream consumption, and the global visible inventory has increased. The CL premium affects the copper price trend, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [18][21][22]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is affected by market sentiment and supply expectations, but the high inventory pressure restricts the price. It is expected to oscillate widely around the cash cost line [22][24][25]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price reached a new high, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. However, the domestic fundamentals are weak, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed. It is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term [25][26][28]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy price followed the aluminum price but lacked financial attributes. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and shorting AL03 is recommended [29][30][31]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose. The supply is under pressure, and the demand has improved. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the long - term [32][34][35]. - **Tin**: The tin price was oscillating at a high level. The supply has increased, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and maintain a low - buying strategy in the long - term [36][38][39]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price was oscillating. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate in a strong range [39][40][42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price was oscillating narrowly. The cost is rising, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 14000 - 15000 [43][44][45]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price was oscillating at a high level. The supply is expected to decline, and the demand is resilient. It is recommended to operate cautiously in the short - term [47][48][49]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is improving. It is recommended to wait and see [50][51][52]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [53][54]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price was stable, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widened. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [54][55][56]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was under pressure. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short around 800 [57][58]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate with a downward bias, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and shorting coke is recommended [60][63]. - **Coke**: The coke price rebounded. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is improving. It is expected to oscillate with a downward bias, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and shorting coke is recommended [64][66]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron price has a clear bottom support. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the cost has an upward expectation. It is expected to oscillate widely [67][68]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon price was oscillating. The supply and demand are both weak, and the high inventory restricts the price. It is expected to oscillate widely [70][71]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The soybean meal has strong bottom support. The domestic supply is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the cost and arrival of goods [72][73]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is oscillating weakly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within a bottom - level range [74]. - **Corn**: The corn price is oscillating within a range. The supply and demand are in a balanced state, and the price has support at the bottom and pressure at the top [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is oscillating, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is oscillating at a low level, and the domestic cotton price is expected to oscillate strongly [79][80]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with some increases. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is normal. It is expected to oscillate within a range [82]. - **Oils**: The oil price is affected by external factors. The palm oil should pay attention to inventory changes, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil are also affected by different factors [83][84][85]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is oscillating at a low level. The consumption is weak, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival sales and inventory [86][87]. - **Apples**: The apple price is oscillating at a high level. The demand has improved, but the inventory pressure is still large. Attention should be paid to post - festival inventory [89][90]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The PX price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak in the short - term but strong in the long - term [91][92]. - **PTA**: The PTA price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply and demand are weakening, and it is recommended to operate within a range and conduct a positive spread arbitrage [93][94]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price follows the raw material. The supply is high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to operate with the same strategy as PTA and adjust the processing fee [95]. - **Bottle Chips**: The bottle chip price is expected to follow the cost. The supply is expected to decrease, and the processing fee is supported [96][98]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol supply and demand are in a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern. It is recommended to conduct a positive spread arbitrage and hold the seller's position of put options [99]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene supply and demand are improving, but the high inventory restricts the price. It is recommended to wait and see and narrow the spread between EB and BZ [100]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price is fluctuating at a high level. The supply and demand are temporarily tight, but the expectation is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see and narrow the spread between EB and BZ [101][102]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market is trading lightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stop taking profits on previous long positions and wait and see [103]. - **PP**: The PP supply and demand are both weak. The inventory pressure is relieved, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [104]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is oscillating strongly due to geopolitical factors. The supply and demand are weak, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions when the geopolitical situation eases [104][105][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price is moving down. The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [106][107]. - **PVC**: The PVC price is falling. The demand support is weak, and it is expected to oscillate and correct [108][109]. - **Urea**: The urea price is rising steadily. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is improving. It is expected to fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival [110][111]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price is stable, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [112][115]. - **Glass**: The glass price is stable, and the supply and demand are both weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to production lines and inventory changes [112][116]. - **Natural Rubber**: The natural rubber price is rising. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but there is pressure at 16500 [116][118]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The synthetic rubber price is oscillating widely. The cost support is strong, but the buying sentiment is cooling down. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 12500 [119][122].

行业 铝日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 29 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 铝价经过短期调整后 28 日资金增仓拉涨，沪铝主力 2603 拉升 5.75%最高至 25680 元/吨，再次刷新上市高点，总持仓大幅增加 9.3 万手至 81 万手，伦铝最 高至 3314 美元/吨。铝价上涨带动产业链品种全面上涨，氧化铝期价上涨 3.27% 至 2811，铝合金上涨 3.35%报 23785。市场情绪主要受到美国和伊朗冲突升级引 发海外物流供应担忧所点燃，叠加隔夜美元指数暴挫超 1%导致贵金属继续拉涨， 资 ...

Group 1 - The aluminum sector experienced a significant increase, with the main contract for Shanghai aluminum (2603) opening at 24,305 CNY/ton and closing at 25,640 CNY/ton, marking a rise of 5.75% [2][7] - The main contract for aluminum alloy (2603) opened at 23,120 CNY/ton and closed at 23,785 CNY/ton, reflecting a gain of 3.35% [2][7] - The main contract for alumina (2605) opened at 2,741 CNY/ton and closed at 2,811 CNY/ton, showing an increase of 3.27% [2][7] Group 2 - Tensions in the Middle East, particularly Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, have raised concerns about logistics and supply, with the region's annual alumina supply around 4.5 million tons and electrolytic aluminum supply approximately 7 million tons [8] - The electrolytic aluminum production accounts for nearly 10% of global supply, with most aluminum products being exported, leading to supply-side concerns due to the potential closure of the strait [8] - Following the Davos Forum, the US dollar index has significantly declined, which is favorable for non-ferrous commodities [3][8] Group 3 - Despite the rise in aluminum prices, actual downstream consumption has entered a low season, resulting in insufficient purchasing enthusiasm [3][8] - Aluminum alloy prices have followed aluminum prices but are relatively weak [3][8] - Long-term macroeconomic factors suggest a bullish outlook for aluminum prices, but short-term seasonal inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival may exceed previous years, necessitating caution regarding industry contradictions [3][8] Group 4 - In terms of alumina, the Middle East has a net import demand, and disruptions in the strait could negatively impact overseas market demand, which is relatively bearish for alumina [3][8] - Although there are around 4.5 million tons of alumina undergoing maintenance in China, this does not change the overall surplus situation, and most maintenance periods are around 10 days, with no large-scale proactive production cuts observed [3][8] - The spot market for alumina remains weak, with the price spread between contracts 2603 and 2605 further widening [3][8]

1月28日晚，焦作万方（000612）发布2025年度业绩预告，公司预计2025年归母净利润10亿元至11.5亿 元，同比增长69.87%-95.35%；扣非净利润预计10.11亿元至11.61亿元，同比增长63.63%-87.9% 对于业绩变动原因，焦作万方表示，公司坚持效益优先，着力提升管理水平等相关工作，2025年业绩增 长主要系电解铝业务销售价格上涨及成本下降影响。(王珞) ...

瑞银CIO办公室分析，全球地缘政治不确定性加剧，叠加美联储议息会议落地前的观望情绪，低风险资产成为资金首选，推动黄金突破5200美元/盎司、白 银突破110美元/盎司历史高位。 | 纽约金主连 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GCOW | | | | | | | | 5303.3 振幅 2.14% 高 5298.6 | | | | | 미래 82358 | | | 5193.6 (HE | | 昨结 | | 5120.6 | 持仓 30.52万 | | | 178.0 3.48% 开 5218.6 | | | 今结 | l | 日増 +21946 | | | 相关 ETF 2 | | | | | T+0 金ETF嘉实 3.05% ● > | | | 分时 園K | 日K | 月K | | 五日 | 更多。 | | | 均价: 5249.4 最新: 5298.6 178.0 3.5% | | | | | | | | 5303.3- | | | 3.57% | | 免费领实时行情> | | | | | | | | 卖1 529 ...