在外部不确定性显著增加的背景下，中国经济与贸易总量保持合理增长，主要得益于经济发展质量的有 效提升。一是工业生产转型升级加快。2025年规模以上装备制造业、高技术制造业增加值同比分别增长 9.2%、9.4%，均高于全部规上工业增加值增速5.9%，占全部规上工业增加值比重分别较上年提高2.2 个、0.8个百分点。 二是出口多元化程度提升，出口商品竞争力增强。2025年，中国对美国出口规模同比减少20%，但对非 洲、东盟和欧盟出口分别增长25.8%、13.4%和8.4%，对整体出口增速的拉动作用分别为1.3个、2.2个和 1.2个百分点。同期，机电和音像设备、车辆等运输设备、光学医疗设备等高级工业品出口对整体出口 增速的拉动作用由上年4.2个百分点提升至4.8个百分点，是出口增长韧性的重要来源。 四是数字渗透力明显增强，绿色引领力全面彰显。2025年，规上数字产品制造业增加值比上年增长 9.3%，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加值增长11.1%；规上工业水电、核电、风电、太阳能等清 洁能源发电量比上年增长8.8%，非化石能源占能源消费总量的比重较上年提高约2个百分点；规上建 材、钢铁、有色等主要耗能行业单位增加 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 法国制造业 PMI 升至近四年新高——海外 周报第 124 期 ❖ 核心观点： 1、重要数据回顾：①美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 回升，第三季度实际 GDP 环比折年率终值为 4.4%，ADP 周度新增就业人数下滑。②日本 12 月出口增 速不及预期。③欧元区 1 月 ZEW 经济景气指数回升，1 月制造业 PMI 初值 回升，法国制造业 PMI 升至近四年新高的 51。 2、美国基本面高频：①景气上行的有：地产（房贷申请数量继续回升）、物价 （大宗价格回升、美国汽油零售价回升）、就业（续请失业金回落）。②景气下 行的有：WEI 指数（经济景气下行）、消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回落）、 就业（初请失业金人数回升）。 3、美国流动性高频：①美国和欧元区金融条件收紧。②离岸美元流动性：日 元兑美元流动性改善，欧元兑美元流动性恶化。 ❖ 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 美国经济活动指数回落。1 月 17 日当周，美国 WEI 指数升至 2.34%，上周为 2.4 。 上周为-0.03%。 ❖ 三、需求 1、美国红皮书商业零售同比增速边际回落。1 月 16 日当周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new upward cycle since October 2024, with the current phase described as "summer," indicating active trading and sector rotation, but not yet reaching a peak or bubble stage [1][2]. Market Characteristics - The market is currently characterized by high trading volume and broad participation, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, signaling the end of debates over bull and bear market transitions [2]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 is approximately 14 times, significantly lower than the S&P 500 (about 29 times) and NASDAQ (about 42 times), indicating that the current market rebound is more of a "catch-up" rather than a bubble [2]. Product Cycle Observation - The representative products of the company have only seen a 16%-17% increase since reaching historical highs in June 2025, suggesting that there is still significant upward potential [3]. Economic Comparison - The current fundamental conditions in China are considered stronger than those in Japan during its economic transition, with a more stable financial system and lower policy learning costs [5][6]. - China's manufacturing sector remains globally competitive, with a record trade surplus in 2025, and new economic sectors like renewable energy and digital economy are driving growth [6][7]. Investment Focus for 2026 - The core investment themes for 2026 are shifting from heavy assets to hard assets, with sectors like rare earths, energy metals, and chemical materials gaining importance due to their pricing power in a concentrated global supply environment [8]. - The company emphasizes five structural investment directions: 1. Technological innovation, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace [9] 2. Biopharmaceuticals, with validated global competitiveness [10] 3. Gold and hard assets, which hold value amid global monetary expansion [11] 4. Revaluation of Chinese manufacturing leaders as key supports in a slow bull market [12] 5. High-dividend assets serving as defensive positions [13] Market Dynamics - The current market rally is driven by a combination of policy, valuation, and sentiment bottoms, alongside the early stages of industrial cycles in AI, energy transition, and biotechnology [14].

Economic Outlook - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes a recovery in prices and a stable GDP growth rate of around 5% for 2026, aligning with expectations. Inflation indicators are expected to gradually improve, leading to better corporate profits and household incomes. Overall, a trend of oscillating recovery is anticipated, with a key turning point expected in the second to third quarter when the comprehensive price level is projected to turn positive from negative [1][8]. GDP and Economic Growth - In 2025, China's GDP is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5%, with a similar outlook for 2026. Notably, the relationship between nominal GDP and real GDP is changing, with both showing a gradual recovery. A significant turning point is anticipated in the second to third quarter, where nominal GDP is expected to surpass real GDP, indicating a positive growth in overall inflation indicators [3]. Consumer Market - The "trade-in" policy for consumer goods has played a crucial role in supporting consumption. In 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods are projected to grow by approximately 3.7%, with categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as communication equipment and home appliances, showing rapid growth. The policy's effects are expected to continue into 2026, with an expansion of coverage to include smart products and AI glasses [4]. Manufacturing Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining a stable proportion of manufacturing in the economy. China's manufacturing sector is leading among major industrial countries, with improvements in quality and efficiency reflected in rising labor productivity. Emerging industries, including AI, big data, and biomedicine, are expected to drive future growth [4]. Real Estate Market - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the focus in the real estate sector will be on inventory reduction. Although the inventory of unsold commercial housing has decreased, there remains a need for further de-stocking. Various policy tools have been prepared to support this, including central bank loans for affordable housing and special bonds for inventory reduction [5]. Infrastructure Investment - Debt reduction is crucial for infrastructure investment. The article categorizes provinces into "debt reduction" and "economic powerhouse" regions, noting that investment growth has been higher in economic powerhouse provinces. As debt reduction efforts progress, investment space in relevant provinces is expected to be released. New policy financial tools introduced recently are anticipated to positively impact infrastructure investment [6]. Export Performance - China's export growth has been unexpectedly strong, with a projected 5% increase in 2025 and a trade surplus of approximately $1 trillion. The resilience in exports is attributed to diversification and structural upgrades in the industry. The share of exports to the U.S. has decreased from nearly 20% to 11%, while exports to ASEAN countries have risen to 17% [7]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 is described as very proactive, with a deficit rate of about 4% and an increase in special bond quotas. For 2026, fiscal policy is expected to remain expansive, focusing on structural optimization and potentially easing local financing restrictions [12]. Capital Market Trends - The domestic A-share market has shown an upward trend, particularly in the technology sector. The global capital markets have also experienced varying degrees of growth, with emerging markets performing notably well. The article suggests that these trends are likely to continue into 2026, driven by a weak dollar environment [14]. Currency and Gold Market - Since November 2025, the RMB has strengthened significantly, supported by a large trade surplus and increased demand for the currency. The article anticipates a continued moderate appreciation of the RMB in 2026. Additionally, gold prices have been rising, reflecting both its monetary and credit attributes, suggesting that gold will maintain its investment value in 2026 [15][16].

Group 1 - The "Binqi Chuang Shijie" initiative has been actively supported by various departments, creating a strong atmosphere for enterprises to expand internationally [1][2] - A city-wide meeting emphasized the importance of project initiation and investment attraction, focusing on agricultural and industrial production, as well as consumption enhancement [2] - The city’s Business Bureau recommended 13 quality enterprises for AEO certification to improve their international competitiveness [2][3] Group 2 - The Business Bureau organized funding applications for trade friction research to help local companies respond to anti-dumping investigations [3] - A training and exhibition promotion event was held by the Trade Promotion Council, attracting over 100 business leaders to discuss compliance and international expansion [4] - The United Front Work Department is preparing the "Bin-Hong Financial Cooperation Innovation Center" to facilitate financial services for local enterprises [5] Group 3 - The Business Bureau coordinated participation in the "Export China - SCO Selection" procurement meeting to enhance trade relations with SCO countries [6] - The Publicity Department is promoting successful international cooperation cases of local enterprises through various media channels, increasing visibility and engagement [7] - The Trade Promotion Council has issued 297 certificates of origin to support companies in their international trade efforts [9] Group 4 - The Foreign Affairs Office is connecting local industries with overseas resources, facilitating cross-border cooperation, and enhancing international market access [9]

Macroeconomic Data Review - The GDP for 2025 reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with a fourth-quarter growth of 4.5% [1][4] - The overall economic performance in 2025 showed a trend of high growth at the beginning of the year followed by a decline, with external demand outpacing internal demand [4][6] - The fixed asset investment for the year decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in investment [4][5] - The industrial added value for December increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing maintaining robust growth [4][32] - The service sector production index grew by 5.0% year-on-year in December, reflecting an improving overall economic climate [4][38] Consumption Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods in December grew by 0.9% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4][19] - The performance of service retail was better than that of goods retail, with significant increases in categories such as cosmetics and sports entertainment [4][21] - The consumption growth rate for basic living goods showed a decline, while the "two new" products experienced a narrowing of the year-on-year decline [4][21] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment saw a further decline, with December showing a continued decrease across all three major investment categories [4][5] - The construction and installation projects remained weak, while equipment and tool purchases continued to drive investment growth [4][24] Industrial Performance - The industrial sector showed stable growth, with the added value of industries above designated size increasing by 5.2% year-on-year in December [4][32] - High-tech manufacturing industries led the growth, with a year-on-year increase of 11% in December [4][32] Real Estate Market - The real estate sector continued to show weakness, with new construction, construction area, completion area, and sales area all declining [5][38] - The price index for new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 3.0% year-on-year in December, indicating a widening decline [5][44] Outlook for 2026 - Several factors are expected to support a strong start for the economy in 2026, including proactive macro policies and the potential for significant project traction [6][11] - The upcoming local government elections may also contribute to improved economic performance, as historically, such years have seen better growth [6][11]

Economic Overview - The total GDP of Shanxi Province reached 25,495.7 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 4.0% increase from the previous year [1] - The primary industry added value was 1,410.5 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%; the secondary industry added value was 10,305.0 billion yuan, increasing by 3.1%; and the tertiary industry added value was 13,780.2 billion yuan, also growing by 4.5% [1] Agricultural Sector - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector achieved an added value of 1,502.0 billion yuan, a 4.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The total grain production reached 29.74 billion jin, a historical high, with a 1.2% increase from the previous year [2] - Livestock production showed positive trends, with the year-end pig stock at 9.216 million heads, up 5.8% [2] Industrial Sector - The added value of large-scale industries in Shanxi grew by 4.9% year-on-year [3] - The mining industry increased by 6.3%, while manufacturing and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries grew by 2.6% and 1.7%, respectively [3] - New emerging industries saw significant growth, with the computer and office equipment manufacturing sector increasing by 121.6% [3] Service Sector - The service sector's added value grew by 4.5%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first three quarters [4] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a 9.8% increase in added value [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shanxi decreased by 0.4% year-on-year [5] - Investment in new energy vehicle manufacturing surged by 57.0%, while new energy power generation investment grew by 18.8% [6] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 8,030.9 billion yuan, a 4.7% increase from the previous year [8] - The tourism market thrived, with monitored scenic spots receiving 124.55 million visitors, a 14.8% increase [8] Financial Sector - By the end of December, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 64,600.4 billion yuan, a 5.7% increase year-on-year [9] - The balance of loans increased by 7.4% to 48,963.9 billion yuan [9] Employment and Income - The urban employment situation remained stable, with 473,000 new jobs created, achieving 105.0% of the annual target [10] - The per capita disposable income in Shanxi reached 33,923 yuan, a 4.6% increase from the previous year [9]

Group 1 - The article outlines the steps for individuals to file their income tax returns through the Natural Person Electronic Tax Bureau, emphasizing the importance of accurate data entry and submission [2][3][4][6] - It details the process of collecting and submitting taxpayer information, including income totals, costs, and tax adjustments, which are crucial for the annual tax return [2][5][6] - The article highlights the necessity of confirming the accuracy of tax information before submission and provides guidance on how to check the status of the tax return after submission [3][4] Group 2 - The article introduces the 7th announcement from the tax authority, effective from September 1, 2025, which allows eligible VAT taxpayers to apply for refunds of end-of-period tax credits [16][18] - It specifies the conditions under which taxpayers can apply for tax refunds, including credit rating requirements and previous compliance history [18][19] - The article outlines the calculation methods for determining the refundable amounts based on the increase in end-of-period tax credits over specified periods [24][30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of Announcement No. 7 by the State Administration of Taxation, effective from September 1, 2025, which allows eligible VAT general taxpayers to apply for refunds of the ending retained tax credits under specific conditions [10]. Group 1: Eligibility Conditions - Taxpayers must have a credit rating of A or B [12]. - No instances of fraudulent tax refund claims or issuance of false VAT invoices in the past 36 months [12]. - No more than one tax evasion penalty from tax authorities in the past 36 months [12]. - Taxpayers must not have enjoyed VAT immediate refund or deferred refund policies since April 1, 2019, unless specified otherwise by Announcement No. 7 [12]. Group 2: Specific Industry Taxpayers - For manufacturing and three other industries, taxpayers must have over 50% of their VAT sales from these sectors based on the previous 12 months [15]. - Taxpayers in real estate development must have over 50% of their VAT sales and prepayments from real estate activities based on the previous 12 months [19]. - Other industry taxpayers must meet specific criteria regarding their retained tax credits to apply for refunds [23]. Group 3: Policy Highlights - Taxpayers can apply monthly to the tax authority for refunds of ending retained tax credits [17]. - For real estate developers, if the new retained tax credits in the sixth month exceed 500,000 yuan, they can apply for a refund of 60% of the new increase [20]. - Other taxpayers can receive a 60% refund on new retained tax credits up to 100 million yuan, and 30% on amounts exceeding that [24][26].

据"乐在网"1月22日报道，根据加纳统计局（GSS）发布的数据，2025年12月，全国商品与服务生 产者价格指数（PPI）同比上涨1.9%，较2025年11月的同比涨幅（1.3%）上升0.6个百分点，但较2024年 12月的同比涨幅（26.1%）大幅回落24.2个百分点。 从环比看，2025年12月生产者价格较11月下降0.8%，意味着生产端价格在当月呈现小幅回落。从 行业来看，采矿与采石业（权重占比43.7%）生产者通胀率从2025年11月的2.3%升至12月的3.3%，上升 1.0个百分点；制造业（权重占比35.0%）通胀率从11月的0.5%降至12月的0.1%，回落0.4个百分点；运 输与仓储业通胀率继续下行，从11月的-10.2%收窄至12月的-3.7%。 （原标题：加纳2025年12月生产者价格指数同比上涨1.9%） 加纳统计局针对不同经济主体提出具体建议：对家庭与消费者，倡导基于价值和价格意识的消费方 式，建议参考PPI趋势调整购买决策，并增加对价格相对稳定的商品与服务的消费以保护实际收入；对 企业，建议在行业价格压力分化的背景下着力提升成本效率与生产率以维持运营，同时将制造业等领域 因投入成本下 ...