Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market showed mixed performance during the week of January 12 to January 16, with the base metals sector leading gains while the black metals sector declined [1] - Energy and chemical sectors saw slight increases, with fuel rising by 0.32% and crude oil by 1.22% [1] - The black metals sector experienced declines, with coking coal down 2.05%, coke down 1.77%, and iron ore down 0.31% [1] - The base metals sector saw lithium carbonate increase by 1.94%, zinc up 3.06%, and nickel up 1.62% [1] - Precious metals also gained, with gold up 2.57% and silver up 20.03% [1] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, with eggs up 1.05% and live pigs up 1.78%, while soybean meal fell by 2.12% [1] Lithium Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate futures experienced volatility, initially rising by 17% before a significant drop, closing the week at 146,200 yuan/ton after hitting a limit down [2][3] - Supply remained slightly increased, with domestic lithium carbonate production at 22,605 tons for the week, a 0.3% increase [2] - Demand remained strong despite seasonal trends, with December sales of new energy vehicles reaching 1.71 million units, a 28% year-on-year increase [2] Pig Market Trends - The pig futures market showed a strong upward trend ahead of the Spring Festival, with the main contract rising by 1.78% to 11,950 yuan/ton [4] - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.31 yuan/kg, reflecting a synchronized rise in both futures and spot markets [4] - Supply remained low, with stable breeding sow inventory at 39.9 million heads, indicating a normal holding level [4] Export Growth Insights - December exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, reaching 357.78 billion USD, supported by strong performance in non-US markets and high-end manufacturing [6] - The growth was driven by significant increases in automotive exports, which rose by 71.7% due to tariff adjustments and demand recovery in consumer electronics [6][7] - The overall export structure is shifting towards a focus on high-tech and machinery products, with labor-intensive products continuing to decline [7][8] Financial Data and Corporate Financing - In December, new social financing totaled 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, indicating a recovery in corporate financing [9][10] - The increase in corporate loans was notable, with 1.07 trillion yuan added, reflecting strong financing demand from enterprises [10][11] - The People's Bank of China introduced structural monetary policy tools to support targeted sectors, indicating a shift towards more focused financial support rather than broad monetary easing [12]

Core Viewpoint - London base metals experienced a broad decline on January 16, with significant drops in copper, nickel, and lead prices, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Group 1: Price Movements - LME copper fell by 2.16% to $12,822.5 per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.35% [1] - LME zinc decreased by 3.18% to $3,209 per ton, but recorded a weekly increase of 1.76% [1] - LME nickel dropped by 4.01% to $17,825 per ton, with a weekly rise of 0.69% [1] - LME aluminum declined by 1.17% to $3,130.5 per ton, showing a slight weekly decrease of 0.18% [1] - LME tin saw a significant drop of 8.2% to $47,765 per ton, despite a weekly increase of 4.84% [1] - LME lead fell by 2.93% to $2,038 per ton, with a weekly decline of 0.56% [1]

Oil Market - Oil prices ended a volatile week with a slight increase, as traders assessed tensions in Iran and broader market sentiment [2][12] - WTI futures for February delivery rose by 0.4% to settle at $59.44 per barrel, recovering from a 4.6% drop earlier in the week, the largest decline since June [2][12] - Brent futures for March delivery increased by 0.6%, settling at $64.13 per barrel [2][13] - President Trump's comments regarding Iran's decision to cancel the execution of protesters reduced market expectations for immediate U.S. intervention [13][14] - The U.S. is increasing its military presence in the Middle East, with at least one aircraft carrier deployed and more military assets expected in the coming days [13][14] - Traders typically hedge bearish bets before weekends during periods of heightened geopolitical risk [14] Precious Metals - Gold prices declined as President Trump expressed reservations about Kevin Hassett's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, adding uncertainty to the selection process [4][16] - Following Trump's remarks, the dollar narrowed its losses, and U.S. Treasury yields rose, leading to a 1.7% drop in gold prices [5][17] - Gold spot prices fell by 0.66% to $4,585.61 per ounce, while silver spot prices decreased by 3.25% to $89.4164 per ounce [17] Base Metals - Base metal prices on the London market experienced significant declines at the end of a dramatic week [18][19] - Benchmark futures for copper, tin, zinc, and aluminum all fell, with LME copper down 2.3% to $12,803 per ton and LME tin down 7.8% to $47,982 per ton [20] - The sell-off in the Shanghai market contributed to the speed and characteristics of the market movements, with traders likely closing long positions rather than driven by new demand or macro signals [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities have diverse market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies. For example, in the gold market, prices are expected to rise, while in the basic metal market, opportunities for stable buying are awaited. In the black industry and energy - chemical sectors, the market is complex and requires different strategies such as holding short positions, waiting and seeing, or taking short - term and medium - term actions according to specific situations. In the agricultural product market, prices generally show a trend of shock, and corresponding trading strategies are formulated based on supply - demand relationships [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The price of London gold remained at $4,600 per ounce, and the price of London silver remained at $93 per ounce [1] - **Fundamentals**: In November, the total scale of US Treasury bonds held by countries and regions outside the US increased by $112.8 billion to $9.36 trillion. China's mainland holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased by $6.1 billion to $682.6 billion. Many Fed officials supported Powell, and the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals such as silver and platinum. Domestic gold ETFs continued to have a small inflow of 0.8 tons [1] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on gold, and wait and see on silver [1] Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The copper price fluctuated weakly yesterday [2] - **Fundamentals**: The Trump administration did not impose tariffs on key minerals, the US dollar index strengthened, and the US Congress proposed a $2.5 - billion key mineral strategic reserve plan. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the downstream point - price increased after the price decline [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a clearer opportunity to buy on stabilization [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.89% to 24,375 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 295 yuan/ton. The LME price was $3,162 per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The electrolytic aluminum price had a small correction. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term, and focus on the movement of the main funds [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.39% to 2,789 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 119 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of alumina is gradually recovering, the inventory is continuously accumulating, and it is expected to continue the weak shock in the short term [3] Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 25,090 yuan/ton and 17,550 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan and 165 yuan respectively from the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 40 yuan/ton and - 100 yuan/ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 14.32 dollars/ton and - 43.33 dollars/ton respectively [3] - **Fundamentals**: The zinc market was obviously driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamental support was insufficient. The lead market showed a weak reality, with weak consumption, increasing inventory, and expanding spot discounts [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards zinc, and operate in the range or be bearish on lead [3] Other Metals (Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Polysilicon, etc.) - **Market Performance and Fundamentals**: Each metal has its own characteristics. For example, the silicon market has supply reduction and demand - side anti - involution; the lithium carbonate market has price fluctuations affected by supply and demand; the polysilicon market has production reduction and inventory changes [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The silicon market can consider short - selling on rallies; the lithium carbonate market is expected to have price support; the polysilicon market is expected to have a weak shock in the low position [3] Tin - **Market Performance**: The tin price rose first and then fell yesterday [4] - **Fundamentals**: The Trump administration did not impose tariffs on key minerals, the US dollar index strengthened, and the US Congress proposed a key mineral strategic reserve plan. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports needed time [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for an opportunity to buy on stabilization [4] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,161 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The building material apparent demand increased by 150,000 tons to 1.9 million tons, and the output decreased by 10,000 tons to 1.9 million tons. The steel supply and demand were weak, and the structural differentiation was significant [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract, with a reference range of 3,130 - 3,180 [5] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 815 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.8 million tons to 1.66 billion tons. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure, and the valuation was slightly high [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, with a reference range of 805 - 835 [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,180 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, and the steel mill profit deteriorated. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The supply - side inventory was differentiated, and the overall inventory level was low. The futures valuation was high [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract, with a reference range of 1,155 - 1,200 [5] Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rose overnight, driven by the strengthening of US soybean oil [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply was loose in the near term, and there was a large - supply expectation in South America in the long term. The US soybean crushing was strong, but the export was weak [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The US soybean was supported by the bullish expectation of US biodiesel, but it was still in the process of finding a bottom in the medium term. The domestic far - month contract was suppressed by the large - supply expectation in South America, and the near - month contract depended on the game between the reserve release volume and customs clearance [7] Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price was strong, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress was slower than the same period last year, and farmers were reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory increased, and the procurement enthusiasm would decline. The supply - demand contradiction was not large [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [7] Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose overnight, driven by the strengthening of US soybean oil [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply was in a weak seasonal decline, and the export improved month - on - month. The overall pattern was loose in the near term and in a weak seasonal decline in the long term [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The oils and fats were strong, trading on the bullish expectation of US biodiesel. Pay attention to the production and biodiesel policy in the medium term [7] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the international crude oil price dropped significantly [7] - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton export sales increased significantly. India's cotton production was expected to increase. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price began to fluctuate narrowly, and the medium - term upward trend was still valid [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, with a price range reference of 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton [7] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg futures price continued to rise, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the capacity reduction slowed down. The Spring Festival stocking boosted demand, and the inventory decreased [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be strong in shock [7] Pigs - **Market Performance**: The pig futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The January slaughter volume was expected to be low first and then high, and the demand was stable in the short term. The supply pressure was not large in the short term, and the high - end - of - year demand supported the price [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be strong in shock [7] Energy Chemical LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China was 6,700 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis was stable. The overseas market price was stable, and the import window was closed [9] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure slowed down, and the demand in the downstream agricultural film market weakened month - on - month, while the demand in other fields was stable [9] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium term, it is recommended to go long on dips [9] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract closed at 4,870, down 0.3% [9] - **Fundamentals**: The PVC was at the bottom and waiting for macro - guidance. The supply was at a high level, and the demand weakened seasonally. The social inventory was at a high level [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude due to the increasing supply and weakening demand [9] PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR China price was $882 per ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5,047 yuan/ton. The spot basis was - 65 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: The PX supply was at a high level, and the PTA supply was also high. The polyester factory load decreased slightly, and the downstream entered the off - season [9] - **Trading Strategy**: The PX has strong expectations to support the price, and there may be a correction pressure in the short term. The PTA has a seasonal inventory increase in the off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 - contract processing margin [9] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Iran, the methanol futures price rose first and then continued to adjust in shock. As of January 15, the methanol 05 contract closed at 2,273 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: The export tax - refund cancellation of photovoltaic products had little impact on methanol. The domestic methanol production was at a high level, and the port inventory was expected to remain at a high level. The Iranian methanol loading volume in January was expected to be low [9] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to rise in shock in the near future [9] Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg01 contract closed at 1,087, down 0.5% [10] - **Fundamentals**: The glass production reduction increased significantly. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased from a high level. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the price was at the bottom [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude due to the decreasing supply and weakening demand [10] PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6,450 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was stable. The overseas market price was stable, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased month - on - month [10] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [10] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The oil price dropped significantly yesterday. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation, the risk premium was difficult to fully withdraw, and it may remain in shock in the short term [10] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure was large, and the demand was in the off - season. The OECD oil product inventory was higher than the five - year average [10] - **Trading Strategy**: It is not recommended to chase the high price. Wait for an opportunity to go short on rallies, or buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [10] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 7,160 yuan/ton, and the overseas market price was stable. The import window was closed [10] - **Fundamentals**: The pure - benzene inventory was at a normal - to - high level, and the short - term supply - demand of styrene weakened. The downstream start - up rate increased month - on - month [10] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to go long on styrene or pure - benzene spreads on dips in the second quarter [10] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa05 contract closed at 1,194, down 2% [11] - **Fundamentals**: The soda - ash price was at the bottom, the expectation improved, and the inventory was at a high level. The supply was large, and the downstream demand was weak [11] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on glass and short on soda ash [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe-haven sentiment rebounds [2]. - Silver: Reaches a new high [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [2]. - Zinc: Pay attention to the upper pressure [2]. - Lead: The reduction in overseas inventories supports the price [2]. - Tin: Strong upward trend [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillates with a slight upward bias [2]. - Alumina: Ranges within a certain interval [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Oscillates and adjusts [2]. - Palladium: Follows with a slight retracement [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range oscillatory operation [2]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,027.18 with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session closing price was 1031.00 with a night - session increase of 0.14%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21030 with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the night - session closing price was 21943.00 with a night - session increase of 4.14% [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 630 kg, and the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 2,255,181 troy ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The minimum margin ratio for margin trading on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was raised from 80% to 100. The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case again, and the Nasdaq maintained a 1% decline. The US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened, the PPI rebounded year - on - year, and the December existing - home sales were the strongest since 2023 [4][6][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,870 with a daily increase of 1.54%, and the night - session closing price was 103660 with a night - session decrease of 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 22,824 [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME copper inventory increased by 75 tons, and the LME copper premium strengthened, with an increase of 25.92 compared to the previous day [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, also including that global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040 driven by AI and defense. The 2026 copper premium proposed by Pan - Pacific Copper to Japanese domestic customers reached a record high of $330 per ton [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24475 with a daily increase of 0.80%, and the trading volume increased by 54828 [11]. - **Premium and Inventory**: The LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 21.55, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons [11]. - **News**: The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case, and the US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17385 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the trading volume increased by 6891 [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME lead inventory decreased by 3725 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased by 0.18 [14]. - **News**: Similar to the above, including US economic data and Fed officials' stances [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 413,170 with a daily increase of 8.92%, and the night - session closing price was 436,540 with a night - session increase of 9.18% [18]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 862 tons, and the LME tin (spot/three - month) premium increased by 22 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will suspend visas for 75 countries, the US November retail sales exceeded expectations, the yen reached an 18 - month low, and other news [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24595, and the trading volume decreased by 47846. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2800, and the trading volume decreased by 273575. For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 23380, and the trading volume decreased by 8122 [21]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the LME aluminum premium was 22.09 [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: Fed officials' stances on interest rates, and other news [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum has a trend intensity of 0, and palladium has a trend intensity of 0 [25]. - **Related News**: US economic data, Iran situation, US Supreme Court's non - ruling on Trump tariffs, Trump's chip tariff policy, and other news [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 140,940, and the trading volume decreased by 206,996. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,925, and the trading volume decreased by 71,570 [28]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses, China implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and other news [28][29][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in most base metals in London on January 14, with significant increases in prices for tin, nickel, zinc, lead, and copper, while aluminum experienced a slight decline [1] Group 2 - LME tin rose by 9.03% to $54,000.0 per ton [1] - LME nickel increased by 6.24% to $18,785.0 per ton [1] - LME zinc saw a rise of 2.76% to $3,290.0 per ton [1] - LME lead climbed by 1.16% to $2,085.5 per ton [1] - LME copper went up by 1.03% to $13,300.0 per ton [1] - LME aluminum decreased by 0.25% to $3,189.5 per ton [1]

Group 1 - The global precious metals market is at a turning point, with gold expected to rise to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $100 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026 [1][2] - Key drivers of this bullish trend include heightened geopolitical risks, supply shortages in the physical market, and renewed doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which have collectively increased the premium on safe-haven assets [1][2] - Silver is anticipated to outperform gold due to the tightening conditions in the physical market, supported by the uncertainty surrounding the "Section 232" tariff rulings on critical minerals [3] Group 2 - Basic metals may gradually replace precious metals as the main players in the commodity market cycle, with aluminum and copper expected to show resilience in the second half of 2026 due to strong industrial demand [2][3] - Tactical selling may occur due to policy fluctuations, but each dip should be viewed as a buying opportunity within the overall bullish trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2][4]. - Copper: A significant increase in LME cancelled warrants supports the price [2][7]. - Zinc: Volatility at high levels has increased [2][10]. - Lead: A decrease in overseas inventories supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [2][17]. - Aluminum: Operating strongly [2][21]. - Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out [2][21]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: Trading within a range [2][25]. - Palladium: Trading in a narrow range [2][25]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range fluctuations [2][29]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel has raised the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][30]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Gold - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,027.18 with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session closing price was 1031.00 with a 0.14% increase. Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4594.40 with a - 0.31% decrease [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 197,421, a decrease of 40,906 from the previous day, and the position was 103,633, a decrease of 12,817 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 98,283 kg, an increase of 630 kg from the previous day [4]. - **News**: US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. The University of Michigan's January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Trump threatened Iran and was reported to have ordered a plan to "invade" Greenland [4][6]. Silver - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21030 with a 0.39% increase, and the night - session closing price was 21943.00 with a 4.14% increase [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 136,532, a decrease of 29,618 from the previous day, and the position was 72,853, a decrease of 7,320 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 630,066 kg, a decrease of 19577 kg from the previous day [4]. Copper - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,290 with a - 1.45% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 103540 with a 1.22% increase. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,157 with a - 0.12% decrease [7]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 668,804, an increase of 105,862 from the previous day, and the position was 690,536, a decrease of 4,076 [7]. - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrants**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 122,127, an increase of 5,505 from the previous day. The LME Copper inventory was 141,550, an increase of 4,325, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 36.61%, an increase of 20.53% [7]. - **News**: US December core CPI was only 2.6% year - on - year, at a four - year low. The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, driven by the AI and defense sectors [7][9]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24280 with a 0.43% increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3213.5 with a 2.05% increase [10]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 188273, an increase of 90333 from the previous day, and the position was 111306, an increase of 9828 [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 33613 tons, a decrease of 1728 tons from the previous day, and the LME Zinc inventory was 106900 tons, an increase of 100 tons [10]. - **News**: US core inflation slowed down in December, and the market has low expectations for a rate cut this month [10][11]. Lead - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17360 with a - 0.66% decrease, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2053 with a 0.32% increase [14]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 41289, an increase of 5747 from the previous day, and the position was 64233, an increase of 698 [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 21013 tons, an increase of 4524 tons from the previous day, and the LME Lead inventory was 218925 tons, a decrease of 2525 tons [14]. - **News**: US December core CPI was at a four - year low, and Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials [14][15]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 379,330 with a 0.64% increase, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 49,145 with a 1.96% increase [18]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 470,223, an increase of 187,240 from the previous day, and the position was 42,853, a decrease of 7,782 [18]. - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrants**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,245, a decrease of 88 from the previous day, and the LME Tin inventory was 5,930, an increase of 25. The cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [18]. - **News**: Global central banks are drafting a statement to support Fed Chairman Powell. Baichuan Intelligence plans to launch an IPO in 2027 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24375, a decrease of 275 from the previous day, and the LME Aluminum 3M closed at 299 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 825553, an increase of 170542 from the previous day, and the position was 370981, a decrease of 8100 [21]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 14.90 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.40 million tons [21]. - **Alumina** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2780, a decrease of 144 from the previous day [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 964869, an increase of 97851 from the previous day, and the position was 553364, an increase of 123459 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Price**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23165, a decrease of 175 from the previous day [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 27925, an increase of 10659 from the previous day, and the position was 22099, an increase of 109 [21]. - **News**: After Powell was sued, the New York Fed President warned against undermining the central bank's independence. CME changed the margin setting method for precious metals contracts [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum** - **Price**: The closing price of the platinum futures 2606 was 605.05 with a - 2.85% decrease [25]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 32,647 kg, a decrease of 7,907 from the previous day, and the position was 38.440 kg, a decrease of 861 [25]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory was 624,345 ounces, a decrease of 409 from the previous day [25]. - **Palladium** - **Price**: The closing price of the palladium futures 2606 was 483.25 with a - 4.33% decrease [25]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 22,262 kg, a decrease of 1,916 from the previous day, and the position was 15.204 kg, a decrease of 59 [25]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory was 210,908 ounces, a decrease of 398 from the previous day [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 138,450, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous day [30]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,277,690, an increase of 194,488 from the previous day [30]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 981, an increase of 9 from the previous day [30]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Price**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,790, a decrease of 65 from the previous day [30]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 347,554, a decrease of 9,430 from the previous day [30]. - **News**: The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses, and plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities [30][31].

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月13日，伦敦基本金属涨跌参半，LME期锡涨2.46%报49145.0美元/吨，LME期 铝涨0.36%报3196.0美元/吨，LME期铅涨0.34%报2060.0美元/吨，LME期铜跌0.40%报13156.5美元/吨， LME期锌跌0.44%报3202.0美元/吨，LME期镍跌1.61%报17600.0美元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, and provides corresponding market analysis, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each market [1][2][5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Monday, precious metal prices continued to rise, with London gold reaching $4,600 per ounce. The fundamentals are affected by geopolitical factors and inventory changes. It is recommended to go long on gold [1] - **Silver**: The silver price reached $85 per ounce. The speculation sentiment is strong, and the overall volatility increases. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price continued to strengthen. The supply of copper mines remains tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum rose by 1.01% to 24,575 yuan per ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly rising. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [2] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose by 0.81% to 2,866 yuan per ton. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected to be in a weak shock [2] - **Zinc and Lead**: The zinc price is driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamentals are not strong. The lead market shows a weak reality, and it is recommended to wait and see for zinc and operate in a range or be bearish on lead [3] - **Silicon**: The silicon price fluctuates. The supply is affected by production reduction, and the demand in some industries is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 9,200 yuan per ton, and it is advisable to go short lightly on rallies [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand in some industries is decreasing. It is expected that the price will be supported and is likely to rise rather than fall [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon price fell. The market is affected by regulatory factors, and the supply is expected to decrease. The demand in some downstream industries is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [3] - **Tin**: The tin price continued to strengthen. The supply of tin mines remains tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar price rose slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand relationship is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 2605 contract [5] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fell slightly. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [5] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship is weak, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the 2605 contract [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The global soybean supply is expected to be loose. The US soybean is weak, and the domestic far - month contract is under pressure. The near - month contract depends on the game between the throwing volume and customs clearance [7] - **Corn**: The corn futures price is strong, and the spot price rose slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil price rose. The supply is in a seasonal decline, and the demand is increasing. The inventory has risen. The oils and fats market is expected to be in a strong shock, and the long - term weak seasonal decline cycle can be traded [7] - **Sugar**: The sugar price fell. The international sugar price is under pressure from Indian production. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [7] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose slightly. The international cotton supply and demand are changing, and the domestic cotton price is rising. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 14,600 - 15,000 yuan per ton [7] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price fell, and the spot price is stable. The supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Hogs**: The hog futures price fell, and the spot price rose in some areas. The supply pressure is not significant in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8] - **Apples**: The apple price fell. The total output is low, and the inventory is low, but the sales pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [8] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is slowing down, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a strong shock in the short term and advisable to buy on dips in the medium term [8] - **PVC**: The PVC price fell and then rebounded. The supply is high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread of short - selling the 05 contract and long - buying the 09 contract [8] - **PTA**: The PX and PTA supply are high, and the demand is weak. The PX price is expected to be strong in the medium term, and it is advisable to look for opportunities to buy the 05 contract for processing fees [9] - **Rubber**: The rubber price rose. The raw material price is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to hold short - term short positions cautiously [9] - **Glass**: The glass price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct a long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [9] - **PP**: The PP price rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is rising. It is expected to be in a strong shock in the short term and advisable to go short on rallies in the medium term [9] - **MEG**: The MEG supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10] - **Crude Oil**: The oil price rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short the oil as a bearish allocation and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [10] - **Styrene**: The styrene price rebounded slightly. The supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, and the styrene supply and demand are weakening. It is expected to be in a shock in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on styrene or conduct a pure benzene reverse spread in the second quarter [10] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [10]