王维芒 资格编号：Z0000148 邮箱：Wangwm@zhqh.com.cn 中辉期货 时间：2025.04.30 摘要 【宏观总结】大类资产，市场消化特朗普的反复无常，黄金冲高回落，基本金属等走高， 国内过剩产能品种弱势运行。海外经济，海外数据分化，美国消费回落，主要国家货币政 策整体保持流动性宽松，后续美国通胀风险较大。关税谈判方面，部分国家有所妥协。中 国经济，4月制造业PMI明显回落，工业企业利润数据好转，其他基建和制造业数据有所回 升，企业负债率、应收账款等数据不尽如人意。地产高频数据复苏缓慢，央行释放流动性 呵护。中央政治局会议政策有定力，为未来贸易全面脱钩留下余地。 宏观金银宏观月报： 对等关税扰动全球，海内外经济隐忧多，金价大幅波动 【关注】贸易脱钩扩大，国内复苏不及预期，美元流动性危机（投资有风险 入市需谨慎） 2 1 资产价格逻辑分化 2 海外关税谈判反复，货币预期宽松 3 国内PMI数据回落，政策有定力 4 部分避险情绪退却，金价大幅调整 目录 资本市场 01 【金银逻辑】尽管短期可能出现技术性回调，但黄金长期上涨的核心逻辑（美元信用弱 化、央行持续购金、地缘风险及通胀预期）依然稳固。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: Risk preference is rising [2] - Silver: Stabilizing and rebounding [2] - Copper: Decreasing inventory supports prices [2] - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Alumina: Significantly declining [2] - Zinc: Strong current situation but weak expectations, short - term sideways movement [2] - Lead: Weak demand, facing upward pressure [2] - Nickel: The upside and downside spaces are converging, nickel prices may fluctuate in a narrow range [2] - Stainless steel: Spot prices are falling to correct the basis, with cost and negative feedback on the disk in a game [2] - Tin: Slightly recovering [2] - Industrial silicon: The disk is weakly oscillating [2] - Polysilicon: Registered warehouse receipts are slightly increasing [2] - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts are continuously increasing, and the disk is under pressure [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 785.14 with a daily increase of 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 785.02 with a decrease of 0.29%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 8215 with a daily increase of 0.57%, and the night - session closing price was 8226.00 with an increase of 0.12%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of Comex gold decreased by 86,169 ounces, while the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 161,950 ounces [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,600 with a daily increase of 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 77740 with an increase of 0.18%. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 2,842 tons, and the inventory of LME copper decreased by 300 tons. The LME copper cash - 3M spread and some spot spreads changed [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: India may be among the first to sign a trade agreement with the US. US economic data is poor. China's March 2025 scrap copper imports decreased. Peru's Antamina mine stopped work due to an accident. The output of Chile's Codelco increased slightly in Q1. The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. 3.3 Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 19930, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2766. The trading volume, positions, inventory, and spreads of aluminum and alumina contracts changed. The processing fees of aluminum rods in some regions changed slightly [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both aluminum and alumina have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. 3.4 Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22550 with a daily increase of 0.13%. The inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 427 tons, and the inventory of LME zinc decreased by 1775 tons. Some spreads and premiums changed [15]. - **News**: US economic data is poor, the US dollar index rebounded [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. 3.5 Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16895 with a decrease of 0.65%. The inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 427 tons, and the inventory of LME lead decreased by 3750 tons. Some spreads and premiums changed [18]. - **News**: The US trade agreement hope boosted the US stock market [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [19]. 3.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 124,180, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,720. The trading volume, positions, and spreads of nickel and stainless - steel contracts changed. The production capacity of an Indonesian nickel - iron project is recovering, and Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates of nickel products [21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]. 3.7 Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 261,560 with a daily increase of 0.38%. The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 116 tons, and the inventory of LME tin decreased by 180 tons. Some spot prices and spreads changed [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Si2506 was 8,540, and the closing price of PS2506 was 37,320. The trading volume, positions, inventory, and spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts changed. The prices and profits of related products in the industrial chain changed [29]. - **News**: Longi Green Energy's 12GW high - efficiency BC battery project in Xi'an is progressing [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [31]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of 2507 and 2509 contracts of lithium carbonate decreased. Warehouse receipts increased. The prices of raw materials and lithium salts decreased. Some spreads and premiums changed [33]. - **News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Some listed battery companies announced their Q1 results [33][35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [35]

| 黄金：风险偏好回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：企稳反弹 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：寻底继续 | 6 | | 锌：区间整理 | 8 | | 铅：窄幅震荡 | 9 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价或窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修基差，成本与负反馈盘面博弈 | 10 | | 锡：小幅修复 | 12 | | 工业硅：需求疲软，盘面弱势震荡 | 14 | | 多晶硅：消息面发酵，盘面亦偏弱 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：成本支撑趋弱，关注高基差下采买需求 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年04月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 黄金：风险偏好回升 白银：企稳反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z ...

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-04-28 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4641.0 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-04 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 近期研究报告 《看好黄金调整后再上行，铜价到达 压力位》 - ...

周内(4月21日至4月25日)，大宗商品涨跌不一，基本金属、黑色系板块领涨，航运板块领跌。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨1.51%、原油上涨1.10%，碳酸锂下跌2.85%；黑 色系板块，铁矿石周上涨1.43%、焦煤上涨0.37%；基本金属板块，沪镍周上涨0.05%、沪锌上涨 3.17%、沪铜上涨1.71%；农产品板块，棕榈油周上涨3.00%、豆粕上涨0.33%、生猪下跌2.18%。航运板 块，集运欧线周下跌10.95%。交易行情热点 热点一：美联储独立性受影响，黄金收出高位十字星 黄金本周盘中价格创出新高，COMEX黄金一度突破3500美元盎司关口，随后快速回落，COMEX黄金 和伦敦金周线均收出十字星。具体来看，COMEX黄金下跌0.33%，报3330.2美元/盎司；伦敦金下跌 0.17%，报3318.62美元/盎司。 据南华期货（603093）统计：长线基金持仓看，上周SPDR黄金ETF持仓周减6吨至946.3；iShares白银 ETF持仓周减164.1吨至13956吨。短线基金持仓看，根据截至4月22日的CFTC持仓报告，黄金非商业净 多头寸周减26832张至175378张，其中 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 4 月 17 日星期四 | | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 | 贵金属 | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 【市场回顾】 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，因贸易紧张局势升级，伦敦金延续创记录涨势，将历史新高刷 | | | 新至 3350 美元，日内暴涨超 100 美元，最终收涨 3.06%，报 3350.03 美元/盎司；今晨 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 高开后则将历史新高刷至 3357.92 美元。伦敦银收涨 1.34%，报 32.83 美元/盎司。受外 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 2.62%，报 792.56 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 1.14%，报 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021675 | 8273 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数再度下行，并一度跌至 99 美元附近，最终收跌 0.83%，报 | | 研究员：陈婧 FRM | 99.38。 | ...

2025年04月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：试探前高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：企稳反弹 | 2 | | 铜：库存增加，价格回升受限 | 4 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 氧化铝：价格承压 | 6 | | 锌：短期承压 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 镍：基本面短线支撑，镍价坚挺运行 | 10 | | 不锈钢：成本或底部支撑，负反馈预期施压 | 10 | | 锡：小幅修复 | 12 | | 工业硅：盘面考验成本支撑 | 14 | | 多晶硅：交割资源或受限，关注市场情绪变化 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：月差走强，震荡走势延续 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2504 | 781.60 | 2.24% | 792.56 | 2.62% | | | 黄金T+D | 78 ...

2025年04月10日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属价格反弹；消息面，美联储会议纪要显示大多数官员担心关税对通胀影响持续更久， 一些人表示若通胀持续存在，增长和就业前景却减弱，可能面临"艰难取舍"；几乎全体支持上月会议的放慢 缩表决定，但多人认为此次会议没有信服的放慢理由；特朗普表示暂缓对中国以外国家的关税 90 天；经济数 据方面，欧央行表示贸易战可能拖累欧盟 GDP 约 0.25%，全年增速仅 1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进 口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 64 吨至 1060 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 37 吨 1768 吨。伦 敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨，主要流向美国。近期国内白银价格走低，点价盘涌现，出现库存去化。 操作上，贸易战反复，建议白银空单控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：贸易战反复 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行，但凌晨一点之后特朗普宣布对除了中国外的大部分国家关税下调到 10% 且暂缓 90 天增税，外盘铜价大幅上行。精废价差 1500 元左右。交易策略：建议逢 ...

[Table_Main] USGS 2024 年数据洞察：产量、储量 分化，聚焦关键矿产 事件描述 近日，USGS（美国地质调查局）发布 2024 年全球有色金属产量、储量统计 数据。 事件点评 全球基本金属产量分化，中国资源储采比挑战凸显，重点关注铜、铝、锡。根 据 USGS 数据，2024 年全球基本金属产量呈现分化态势。铜同比增长 1.77%， 刚果（金）和印尼贡献主要增量；电解铝产量同比增长 2.86%，中国占比 59.72%；铅矿产量同比下滑 1.60%；锌矿产量因矿端扰动延续下滑趋势，同 比下滑 0.83%；镍/锡产量分别同比下滑 1.33%/1.64%。中国虽在基本金属生 产方面占据重要地位，然而在资源接续上仍有较大的挑战，铜、铝、铅、锌储 采比均显著低于全球均值，如全球铜矿静态储采比约 42.61 年，中国仅有 22.78 年，铝土矿全球静态储采比约 64.44 年，中国为 7.31 年。 全球黄金、白银及铂族金属产量与供应格局呈现显著差异。黄金产量连续两 年稳步增长，同比增长 1.54%，中国、俄罗斯等国家是主要生产国。全球黄 金储量约 6.4 万吨，储采比 19.4 年，中国储量 3100 ...