Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities predicts significant price increases for various metals by 2026, driven by factors such as monetary attributes, safe-haven demand, supply constraints, and structural low inventories [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to benefit from the continued resonance of monetary attributes and safe-haven sentiment, with gold projected to reach $6,000 per ounce by 2026 [1] - Silver is anticipated to experience strong price elasticity due to extreme shortages and trading enthusiasm, with a price target of $120 per ounce by 2026 [1] Group 2: Base Metals - Supply constraints, resilient demand, and structural low inventories are expected to support strong price performance for copper and aluminum, with average prices projected at $12,000 per ton for copper and 23,000 yuan per ton for aluminum by 2026 [1] Group 3: Battery Metals - Lithium prices are expected to rise to a range of 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton by 2026, driven by strong demand from energy storage batteries [1] - Cobalt prices are projected to be in the range of 400,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton due to quota reductions [1] - Nickel prices are expected to rebound to $22,000 per ton, influenced by quota reductions in Indonesia [1] Group 4: Other Metals - Other metals such as rare earths, tungsten, tin, and natural uranium are expected to continue benefiting from supply-demand tightness and strategic metal premiums, with price targets of 600,000 to 800,000 yuan per ton for rare earths, 450,000 to 550,000 yuan per ton for tungsten, 450,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton for tin, and $100 per pound for natural uranium by 2026 [1]

Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a dramatic drop, with prices plunging nearly $500 from a peak of $5,596 to around $5,100 before rebounding above $5,300, indicating extreme volatility and investor anxiety [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates was expected, but Chairman Powell's comments sparked a significant market reaction, with gold prices surpassing $5,500 and silver reaching $119, reflecting a disconnect between market sentiment and Fed communication [3][4] - Geopolitical risks have amplified gold's safe-haven appeal, contributing to a 25% increase in gold prices and over 55% for silver in the past year, indicating a shift beyond typical commodity bull markets [6] Investment Sentiment - Investors are increasingly focused on potential changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership by May 2026, with expectations that a more dovish successor could drive further investment in precious metals [4] - Current market conditions suggest that gold is becoming a key asset in portfolios, potentially replacing traditional bonds as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with projections indicating that a rise in gold allocation could push prices to $8,000-$8,500 [7] Price Predictions - Major financial institutions like UBS have raised their gold price targets for 2026 to $6,200, with bullish scenarios suggesting prices could reach $7,200, further fueling market optimism [9] - However, analysts warn of market instability, citing extreme price fluctuations and the potential for a significant correction due to overcrowded positions among momentum traders [9][11] Technical Observations - The recent flash crash highlighted the market's fragility, as trading platforms experienced outages due to overwhelming order volumes during price swings, underscoring the concentrated nature of market participation [11] - The copper market shows contrasting dynamics, with strong demand driven by energy transition and electric vehicle adoption, yet high inventories challenge the bullish narrative [12] - In the aluminum market, supply constraints from China's production limits and shifting demand towards green technologies suggest a positive medium-term outlook, although short-term price sustainability remains debated [13] Overall Market Sentiment - The current market environment is characterized by significant divergence, with bullish forecasts from major banks juxtaposed against warnings of excessive positioning and volatility risks [13] - The Federal Reserve's efforts to maintain policy credibility have not fully reassured the market, and any new geopolitical developments could trigger rapid price movements [13]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices fluctuating sharply due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership. Recent comments from former President Trump advocating for lower interest rates have positively impacted precious metals [3][6][29] - The report highlights a strong demand for gold driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, with expectations for continued price increases in the long term due to global monetary and debt concerns [7][21] - Silver has shown a dramatic price drop recently, attributed to profit-taking and market reactions to Federal Reserve announcements, but the underlying supply-demand dynamics remain supportive of future price increases [8][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices fell by 1.52% to $4,907.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver dropped by 17.44% to $85.25 per ounce. In contrast, SHFE gold rose by 4.10% to ¥1,161.42 per gram, and SHFE silver increased by 11.92% to ¥27,941.00 per kilogram [1][33] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 19.29% to 57.57, indicating a shift in market dynamics [34] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions involving Iran, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, leading to increased volatility in their prices [3][6][29] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices decreased by 0.44% to $13,070.50 per ton, while aluminum fell by 1.20% to $3,135.50 per ton. Zinc, however, saw a rise of 3.09% to $3,370.00 per ton [9] - The SHFE market showed copper prices increasing by 2.31% to ¥103,680.00 per ton, with aluminum and zinc also experiencing gains [9] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines and structural demand from emerging industries are expected to support copper prices in the long term, despite current demand weakness in China [10][24] Small Metals - Magnesium prices rose by 1.45% to ¥18,240 per ton, driven by increased demand ahead of the Chinese New Year and stable supply from major production areas [19] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, supported by tight supply and steady demand from steel manufacturers [20]

格隆汇1月31日｜周五金银的暴跌始于特朗普将提名沃什为美联储新任主席的报道。SLC管理公司董事 总经理德克·马拉基表示，沃什的履历带有鹰派色彩，这降低了美元全面贬值的风险。市场正在回归有 序的货币政策轨道。此外分析师们还提到，月末快速获利了结的交易员，或为防范突然下跌影响而进行 对冲操作的银行，也可能助推了这次贵金属抛售。BullionVault研究主管阿德里安·阿什表示，他已经参 与贵金属市场20年了，从没见过像现在这样的情况。但他淡化了散户投资者突然在周五撤出资金的可能 性，并指出了铜等基本金属市场的类似异常走势，例如铜期货周五下跌了4.5%。阿什还表示，只看金 银，很容易说这是散户的狂热，但基本金属市场没有散户参与。 ...

黄金股票ETF（517400）、有色60ETF（159881）、矿业ETF（561330）、黄金ETF国泰（518800）大 跌点评 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | 5日涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 517400 黄金股票ETF | | -10.01% | 7.63% | 37.93% | | 159881 有色60ETF | | -9.86% | 1.89% | 21.95% | | 561330 矿业ETF | | -9.83% | 2.88% | 24.44% | | 518800 黄金ETF国泰 T+0 | | -7.33% | 3.82% | 18.56% | 数据来源：Wind，截至2026/1/30 【下跌原因分析】宏观情绪退潮，黄金白银等价格巨震 昨夜全球宏观情绪退潮，今天有色板块大跌。现货黄金日内振幅近500美元，亚盘再度逼近5600美元， 但仍未能站上整数点位，并在美盘急转直下；随后又上演V形反转，收复超200美元，最终收跌0.85%， 报5377.16美元/盎司；现货白银也同步剧烈波动。 | | | | | | | ...

今日早盘，小编刚发了刚刚，金、银价格急跌后反弹，油价大涨！数十万人爆仓！特朗普称俄对乌部分地区停火一周 结果，市场直接来了个"大嘴巴子"，全球金融市场集体杀跌，再现剧烈波动！ 金属板块昨日巨震后，今日急转直下 截至发稿，伦敦金跌4.45%，伦敦银跌7.05%，伦铝跌1.52%，伦铜跌2.86%，纽约铂跌8.07%，纽约钯跌7.83%。 国内商品期货市场收盘，主力合约多数下跌。跌幅方面，碳酸锂跌停，跌幅10.99%，钯跌近12%，铂跌超11%，沪锡跌超8%，多晶硅、沪银跌超6%，沪 金、铸造铝跌超4%，沪镍跌近4%，沪铝跌超3%，国际铜、沪铜跌近3%，不锈钢跌超2%，玻璃、氧化铝跌近2%，欧线集运、棉花、沪铅、鸡蛋、纸浆等 跌超1%；涨幅方面，PVC涨超3%，原木涨超2%，焦煤、丁二烯胶、焦炭涨超1%。 一德期货贵金属分析师张晨表示，2026年以来，贵金属市场大幅上涨，其中金、银、铂价格不断创历史新高，白银市场更是出现单月价格涨超60%的史诗 级暴涨，市场看涨情绪浓厚。如今，金属市场冲高后回落且下跌斜率陡峭，原因是前期行情火热下的部分潜在利空因素开始兑现： 一是资金减仓离场。比如，世界最大的白银SLV-ETF在 ...

上证指数午盘跌1.19%，创业板指涨0.8%。沪深京三市半日成交额19514亿元，较上日缩量836亿 元。全市场超3800只个股下跌。 贵金属、基本金属板块深度回调，个股现跌停潮；钢铁、地产、白 酒、化工行业跌幅靠前；商业航天、光伏、AI应用题材走弱；CPO概念股盘中拉升，农业股逆势走强。 ETF方面，华泰柏瑞基金中韩半导体ETF涨3%。AI硬件走强，CPO概念股盘中拉升，通信ETF广 发、通信ETF嘉实分别涨2.9%和2.57%。农业板块走强，粮食ETF广发、鹏华基金粮食ETF分别涨2.32% 和2.19%。 （责任编辑：刘静 HZ010） 金属板块深度回调，黄金股票ETF、黄金股ETF、黄金股票ETF跌停。稀有金属同步下跌，稀有金 属ETF跌8%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.96%. The ChiNext Index rose by 0.8%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index dropped by 0.54% [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.93 trillion yuan, a decrease of 83.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,800 stocks declining [6] Sector Performance - Precious metals and base metals sectors experienced significant pullbacks, with many stocks hitting the daily limit down. The steel, real estate, liquor, and chemical industries also saw notable declines [5][11] - The commercial aerospace, photovoltaic, and AI application sectors weakened, while agricultural stocks showed resilience, with CPO concept stocks leading the gains [5][6] Notable Stocks - In the CPO concept stocks, Lian Te Technology surged over 10%, Tianfu Communication rose over 8%, and several other stocks increased by more than 6% [6] - The coal sector performed well, with Panjiang Coal and Electricity achieving a limit-up, and other coal stocks also rising [9] Commodity Prices - Spot gold fell below $5,200 per ounce, with a daily decline of 3.27% [7] - Base metals faced a significant downturn, with nearly 30 stocks hitting the daily limit down, including Nanshan Aluminum and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [8] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 477.5 billion yuan for 7-day terms at an interest rate of 1.40% [12]

2026.01. 30 本文字数：438，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财 阿驴 09:27 黄金概念股多数低开，白银有色、兴业银锡、豫光金铅、中金黄金、盛达资源等多股跌停价开 盘。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数集体低开 上证指数低开0.63%，深证成指低开0.6%，创业板指低开0.09%。科创综指低开0.39%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | how | 4131.99 | -25.99 | -0.63% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | ิ | 14214.14 | -85.94 | -0.60% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | N | 3301.54 | -2.97 | -0.09% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | | 1823.88 | -7.22 | -0.39% | 盘面上，黄金、基本金属板块大跌，个股现跌停潮。半导体、光伏、AI应用题材走弱。 09:22 港股开盘丨恒生指数低开0.65% 恒生指数低开0.65%，恒生科技指 ...

盘面上，黄金、基本金属板块大跌，个股现跌停潮。 09:27 黄金概念股多数低开，白银有色、兴业银锡、豫光金铅、中金黄金、盛达资源等多股跌停价开盘。 09:21 央行公开市场开展4775亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。今日1250亿元逆回购到期。 09:16 现货黄金日内跌超1%，现报5313美元/盎司。现货白银失守114美元/盎司，日内跌1.2%。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数集体低开 09:15 人民币对美元中间价报6.9678，调升93个基点。前一交易日中间价报6.9771。 上证指数低开0.63%，深证成指低开0.6%，创业板指低开0.09%。科创综指低开0.39%。 盘面上，黄金、基本金属板块大跌，个股现跌停潮。半导体、光伏、AI应用题材走弱。 09:22 港股开盘丨恒生指数低开0.65% 恒生指数低开0.65%，恒生科技指数跌0.88%。紫金矿业、中国宏桥跌逾3%。科网股多数走低，快手、阿里巴巴跌幅靠前。 | મટા | 恒生指数 | NVW | 27785.98c | -182.11 | -0.65% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...