中美新一轮博弈的演绎及对市场将带来哪些影响？ 20251012 特朗普希望改变原来的贸易协议主要有两个原因。一方面，他认为给中国的条 件过于优厚，尤其是在 7 月份之后美国陆续与越南、欧盟等国家达成贸易协议 本轮贸易摩擦中，美国政治经济压力小于 4 月份，市场调整幅度有限， 资金动能转负但长线资金托举，科创板、半导体、电商等科技主线流入 明显。 中美博弈期间，科技（自主可控方向如国产软件、军工、半导体、有色 稀土、黄金）和金融股受益明显，新消费领域因基本面向上也将受到关 注。 摘要 中国稀土管制措施公开化，但未对美国企业产生实质影响，中美博弈中， 美国增加要价，中国寻求应对之策，但中国官方对特朗普关税威胁反应 滞后，显示冲击超出预期。 特朗普希望改变贸易协议，认为对华条件优厚，通过第三方加税、限制 生物制药和家具等间接施压，并试图在 APEC 前迫使中国在 TikTok、农 产品和稀土等方面让步。 中国对特朗普新要求采取谨慎回应，寻求对价，如收购美国科技企业或 降低分太离关系，并宣布系统相关产品需授权，以抗衡美国施压，但引 发美国加征关税。 中美博弈可能持续僵持，通过小动作互相施压，寻求谈判筹码，导致中 美关 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light manufacturing industry, emphasizing the potential for recovery and growth in various segments [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall export value for furniture, entertainment products, paper, and packaging printing from January to August was 898.9 billion, 2132.4 billion, 524.5 billion, and 401.2 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.9%, -1.2%, +2.2%, and -1.4% [6]. - Domestic industry performance from January to August showed a year-on-year increase in value added for furniture at -5.1%, entertainment products at +0.9%, paper at +3.2%, and packaging printing at +1.3% [6]. Group 2: Market Trends - The report highlights that the information technology sector is enhancing global production efficiency, leading to ongoing supply innovation and product upgrades [6]. - The report suggests that the pet and personal care sectors are still in a favorable economic cycle, while the furniture sector is in a bottoming process [6]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies related to pets, personal care, and the export chain, as these areas are expected to benefit from ongoing trends in supply chain innovation and product upgrades [6]. - Specific companies are highlighted with projected revenues and profit margins for Q3 2025, indicating a range of expected growth rates [7].

新闻发布会现场（刘健 摄） 国务院新闻办公室10月13日上午10时举行新闻发布会，请海关总署副署长王军，海关总署新闻发言人、 统计分析司司长吕大良介绍2025年前三季度进出口情况，并答记者问。 王军 （徐想 摄） 海关总署副署长 王军: 谢谢主持人。各位记者朋友，上午好！很高兴和大家见面。下面，首先由我向大家通报今年前三季度我 国货物贸易进出口情况，之后由我和我的同事一起回答大家关心的问题。 今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得了新 成效。我国外贸在复杂的外部环境下顶压前行，延续了稳中向好的发展势头。据海关统计，今年前三季 度，我国货物贸易进出口33.61万亿元人民币，同比增长4%。其中，出口19.95万亿元，增长7.1%；进口 13.66万亿元，下降0.2%。9月当月，进出口4.04万亿元，增长8%。具体来看，主要有以下五个方面特 点： 一是进出口增速逐季加快。今年一、二季度我国进出口分别增长1.3%和4.5%，三季度增长6%，已连续8 个季度实现同比增长。 二是市场多元化持续推进。前三季度，我国对共建"一带一路"国家进出口17.37万亿元，增长6.2%，占 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 进口方面，我国大宗商品进口量中，来自共建国家的占64.6%，比重较去年同期提升1.1个百分点。今年 以来，海关总署与共建国家对口部门共签署了100余份合作文件，其中农食产品准入文件70余份。我国 农产品进口值中，来自共建国家的占到了69.1%，比重较去年同期提升了3.1个百分点。 出口方面，对共建国家出口电子信息产品增长16.6%、高端装备增长37%、风力发电机组增长58%，出 口纺织服装、食品、家具、汽车等"衣食住行"商品均实现了增长。 新华财经北京10月13日电海关总署副署长王军13日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，前三季度，我国 对共建国家进出口17.37万亿元，同比增长了6.2%，高出同期我国整体进出口增速2.2个百分点。 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，永清县鑫润户外用品有限公司成立，法定代表人为王彦妹，注册资本10万人民 币，经营范围为一般项目：体育用品及器材制造;家具零配件生产;家具制造;产业用纺织制成品制造;体 育用品及器材批发;体育用品及器材零售;家具销售;针纺织品及原料销售;渔具销售;户外用品销售;服装服 饰批发;服装服饰零售;鞋帽零售;鞋帽批发;箱包销售;日用杂品销售;五金产品批发;五金产品零售;塑料制 品销售;橡胶制品销售;家用电器销售;电子产品销售;日用品销售;日用品批发;个人互联网直播服务;互联网 销售（除销售需要许可的商品）（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

President Donald Trump announced Friday that the U.S. could impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports from China by Nov. 1, marking an escalation in the U.S.–China trade conflict and raising uncertainty across global supply chains. In a Truth Social post Friday, Trump said the tariffs were retaliation for China’s new export controls announced a day earlier on rare earth minerals and related technologies. Many U.S. companies that rely on Chinese manufacturing could face soaring costs and shipment delays as ...

Core Insights - The establishment of the "Zhejiang University Shanghai Advanced Research Institute - Xilinmen Furniture Co., Ltd. Health Joint Research Center" marks a significant collaboration aimed at exploring sleep and health solutions, integrating resources from both parties to develop advanced medical-grade sleep solutions for global consumers [1][3]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - The signing ceremony took place in Shanghai, with key representatives from both Xilinmen and Zhejiang University present, highlighting the importance of this partnership in the health industry [1]. - The collaboration aims to focus on three main areas: developing intelligent health monitoring systems for spinal health, creating a sleep health research platform, and integrating traditional Chinese medicine with modern technology to innovate health products and standards [3][5]. Group 2: Focus on Spinal Health - The partnership specifically targets spinal health, utilizing Xilinmen's unique air spring patent technology to develop new functional mattresses and integrated spinal treatment products, with applications in hospitals, wellness centers, and civilian use [5][6]. - The joint research center will leverage clinical expertise from top medical institutions to establish new standards and paradigms for spinal and joint rehabilitation, promoting a comprehensive health application model [5]. Group 3: Research and Development Commitment - Xilinmen has demonstrated a commitment to research and development, having invested over 1.2 billion in recent years and holding over a thousand domestic and international patents, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [6]. - The company aims to transform academic research into practical products that benefit users, continuing its mission to enhance sleep technology and striving to become a global leader in the mattress industry [6].

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has implemented policies to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, resulting in significant sales growth in related sectors [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The NDRC, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, has effectively executed the "two new" policy, leading to the distribution of long-term special government bond funds to support consumer goods replacement [1] - A total of 3.3 billion people have applied for subsidies under the consumer goods replacement program from January to August this year [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The sales revenue from related goods has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating a strong market response to the policy [1] - Retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment have seen year-on-year growth rates of 28.4%, 22.3%, 22.0%, and 21.1% respectively, contributing to a 4.6% increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [1] Group 3: Financial Allocation - The NDRC and the Ministry of Finance have allocated a total of 690 billion yuan in the fourth batch of special government bonds to support the consumer goods replacement initiative, completing the annual allocation of 300 billion yuan [1] - Future efforts will focus on optimizing the use of funds, ensuring balanced and orderly expenditure of subsidies, and enhancing product quality and price supervision [1]

Market Performance - During the National Day holiday (October 1-7, 2025), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.57%, 0.39%, and 0.44% respectively[3] - The Nasdaq China Technology Index rose by 1.59%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.38% during the same period[3] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields primarily decreased, with the 10-year yield falling by 2 basis points to 4.14% as of October 7, 2025[4] - The yield curve steepened, with all maturities except for the 30-year remaining unchanged or decreasing during the holiday[4] Currency Trends - The U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.78%, with the dollar appreciating against the Euro, Pound, and Yen by 0.65%, 0.17%, and 2.70% respectively[5] - The offshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar, rising to 7.1458, a 0.24% increase[5] Gold Market - Gold prices surged, with London spot gold rising by 4.02% to $3979.00 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures increasing by 3.40% to the same price[6] - A rebound in domestic gold prices is anticipated post-holiday due to the significant rise in international prices[6] Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, 2025, due to budget disagreements, which may lead to increased unemployment and reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting GDP growth[7] - The delay in non-farm payroll data release adds to economic uncertainty, affecting market predictions[8] Political Developments - Japan's political landscape may shift with the election of the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party, which could escalate geopolitical tensions in East Asia due to her conservative stance[9] Monetary Policy - The central bank plans to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo on October 9, 2025, to maintain liquidity, despite a net withdrawal in October due to maturing repos[10] Consumer Spending - The fourth batch of 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumer goods has been allocated, expected to boost retail sales in the fourth quarter[10] Investment Strategy - The market may present structural investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, energy storage, and gold, while the bond market remains attractive despite short-term risks[11]

1.我国科研人员解决全固态金属锂电池界面接触难题 记者从中国科学院物理研究所获悉，由该所研究员黄学杰团队联合华中科技大学、中国科学院宁波材料技 术与工程研究所等组成的研究团队开发出一种阴离子调控技术，解决了全固态金属锂电池中电解质和锂电 极之间难以紧密接触的难题，为其走向实用化提供了关键技术支撑。相关研究成果已于7日发表在国际学术 期刊《自然-可持续发展》上。 点评：我国科研突破固态电池技术瓶颈，产业前景广阔。 2.世贸组织上调2025年全球货物贸易增长预期至2.4% 世界贸易组织（WTO）10月7日发布《全球贸易展望与统计》最新报告指出，受人工智能（AI）相关产品需 求增长、北美在关税上调前的进口激增及新兴经济体间贸易活跃推动，2025年上半年全球货物贸易超出预 期。WTO据此将2025年全球货物贸易增长预测上调至2.4%，高于8月时的0.9%；但2026年预测下调至 0.5%。 3.政府停摆致人手紧张，美多个城市航班大面积延误 当地时间10月7日，由于美国政府停摆造成航空管制人员短缺，美国联邦航空管理局（FAA）当天晚间发布 通告称，芝加哥、达拉斯和纳什维尔等主要城市的航班出现大面积延误。数据显示，飞往芝 ...