Industry Overview - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that capacity reductions in the mainland automotive industry are driving industry consolidation, with luxury car dealers expected to benefit first [1] - The report anticipates a significant acceleration in dealership closures from 2025 to 2026, as the overall profit margin for new cars fell below 1% in the first half of this year, making it unattractive for smaller dealers [1] - Car manufacturers plan to reduce their dealership networks in mainland China by 10% to 30% by the end of 2026, which will favor financially stable dealers [1] Company Insights - Zhongsheng Holdings is expected to experience a turning point after four years of decline, with a projected 67% year-on-year rebound in profits to 4 billion yuan by 2026, driven by a recovery in new car profit margins and increased market share in the unexpected repair sector [1] - The decrease in capital expenditure requirements suggests that the expected dividend yield of 5% in 2026 has room for growth; the target price has been raised from 15 HKD to 21 HKD, with a rating of "Overweight" [1] - Tuhu has also been given an "Overweight" rating, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 25% in profits from 2025 to 2027, based on user growth from its app and expansion of franchise stores; the target price has been increased from 20 HKD to 23 HKD [1]

Group 1: Industry Overview - Morgan Stanley reports that capacity reductions in the mainland automotive industry are driving industry consolidation, with luxury car dealers expected to benefit first [1] - It is anticipated that from 2025 to 2026, there will be an acceleration in dealership closures, as the overall profit margin for new cars fell below 1% in the first half of this year, making it unattractive for small dealers [1] - Automakers plan to reduce their dealership networks in mainland China by 10% to 30% by the end of 2026, which will favor financially stable dealers [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) is expected to continue dominating the automotive accident repair business, while independent repair shops like Tuhu-W (09690) will capture market share in maintenance and minor repairs [1] - Excluding the pandemic impact from 2020 to 2021, Zhongsheng Holdings' repair service gross profit has a compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2017 to 2024, which is expected to support core profitability in the future [1] - After four years of a downward cycle, Zhongsheng Holdings is believed to be at a turning point, with a projected 67% year-on-year rebound in profit to 4 billion RMB by 2026, driven by the recovery of new car profit margins and increased market share in accident repair [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The decline in capital expenditure needs suggests that the expected dividend yield of 5% in 2026 still has upside potential; the target price for Zhongsheng Holdings has been raised from 15 HKD to 21 HKD with an upgrade to "overweight" rating [1] - Tuhu is also rated "overweight," with an expected compound annual growth rate of 25% in earnings from 2025 to 2027, based on user growth in its app and expansion of franchise stores; the target price has been increased from 20 HKD to 23 HKD [2] - For Meidong Automotive (01268), the target price has been lowered from 2.2 HKD to 2.1 HKD, maintaining a "market perform" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price range of HKD 3.28 to HKD 4.11, corresponding to a market capitalization range of HKD 49.93 billion to HKD 62.57 billion [6]. Core Views - The company is a leading luxury and ultra-luxury car dealer in China, with a strategic shift towards new energy vehicles (NEVs) in partnership with BYD, aiming to expand its market presence in Hong Kong and overseas [6][12]. - The company has successfully established 100 BYD stores in Hong Kong and overseas within two years, leveraging its strong dealership capabilities and operational experience [6][48]. - The company's revenue from Hong Kong and overseas markets has increased significantly, with a fivefold growth in the first half of 2025, driven by the sales of BYD vehicles [19][22]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The company focuses on luxury and ultra-luxury car sales, providing a full lifecycle service including new car sales, financing, insurance, and after-sales services [8][12]. - In 2024, the company ranked 26th among the top 100 automotive dealers in China, with a total revenue of CNY 17.067 billion and total vehicle sales of 48,000 units [12][17]. Partnership with BYD - The collaboration with BYD began in 2023, aiming to accelerate the expansion of sales channels in Asia and Europe, transitioning towards NEVs and export markets [6][12]. - The partnership has evolved from a business collaboration to a capital cooperation, with BYD acquiring a 10% stake in the company's overseas operations [6][9]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 28.103 billion, CNY 38.488 billion, and CNY 44.961 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of CNY 0.61 billion, CNY 2.43 billion, and CNY 4.16 billion [2][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be CNY 0.04, CNY 0.16, and CNY 0.27 for the same period [2][6]. Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 9.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, with significant contributions from Hong Kong and overseas markets [19][22]. - The gross margin improved to 5.8%, with new car sales margins turning positive for the first time [24][32]. Operational Efficiency - The company has maintained a stable inventory turnover rate of 4.64 times, while the accounts receivable turnover rate decreased due to longer payment cycles in overseas markets [38][41]. - As of the first half of 2025, the company's debt ratio was 55.8%, indicating a healthy financial position with sufficient cash reserves [41][42].

Core Insights - The China Automobile Dealers Association released the inventory survey results for August 2025, indicating a comprehensive inventory coefficient of 1.31, which represents a month-on-month decrease of 3.0% and a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [1] - The current inventory level is below the warning line but above the reasonable range, suggesting a cautious but improving market condition [1] - The automotive market in August performed better than expected, with forecasts indicating a steady month-on-month growth in retail sales of passenger cars for September, suggesting a positive market outlook compared to August [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic automotive circulation industry in China is facing intensified market competition and uneven consumer recovery in the first half of 2025, leading to significant challenges for dealers and a notable decline in performance across major groups [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - Only 30.3% of dealers achieved their sales targets in the first half of 2025, with a loss ratio rising to 52.6% [1] - 74.4% of dealers experienced varying degrees of price inversion, resulting in a situation where sales volume increased but revenue and profits did not [1] - Major listed dealer groups are experiencing exacerbated losses, with performance significantly diverging, highlighting the importance of the new energy vehicle (NEV) business as a key variable [1] Group 2: Financial Results of Major Dealers - Zhongsheng Holdings (00881.HK) reported a revenue of 77.322 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and a net profit of 1.011 billion yuan, down 36% [2] - New car sales revenue for Zhongsheng was 57.931 billion yuan, down 4.7%, with new car sales volume at 228,600 units, a decrease of 1.7% [2] - Yongda Automotive (03669.HK) saw a revenue of 27.072 billion yuan, down 12.8%, and a net loss of 3.33 billion yuan, compared to a net profit of 110 million yuan last year [3] - Yongda's new car sales volume was 72,501 units, down 13.4%, with new car sales and related services revenue at 20.532 billion yuan, a decline of 14.4% [3] - Meidong Automotive (01268.HK) reported a revenue of 10.135 billion yuan, down 4.9%, and a net loss of approximately 815 million yuan, a nearly 30-fold increase from the previous year [3] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Opportunities - Dealers are actively adjusting their structures and shifting focus towards new energy vehicles, which have become a significant growth engine [4] - Zhongsheng noted that the AITO brand contributed to sales with 11,000 units sold, partially offsetting declines in other brands [4] - Yongda's independent NEV brand sales reached 10,312 units, a substantial increase of 49%, with nearly 6,000 orders retained for future growth [4] - The after-sales service remains a stable profit source, with Yongda's after-sales service revenue at 4.784 billion yuan, and NEV repair income rising by 75.8% [5] - Both Zhongsheng and Yongda anticipate ongoing competition but also see structural opportunities in the electric transformation of the industry and the growing after-sales market [5]

Core Insights - The automotive dealership industry is currently facing three major issues: rebate fulfillment, price inversion, and inventory levels [1][2] - Over half of the surveyed brands have a rebate fulfillment period of 30 days or less, but some brands exceed 60 days, leading to dissatisfaction among dealers regarding the clarity of rebate timelines [1] - A significant portion of dealers, 53.19%, report inventory levels exceeding 1.5, with 29.36% indicating levels above 2.0 [1] - Among the surveyed brands, 32 brands experience price inversion, with an average inversion rate of approximately 16.18% [1] Recommendations from the Automotive Dealers Association - Optimize rebate policies by simplifying the structure and reducing the fulfillment period to no more than 30 days, especially for brands with longer periods [2] - Implement strict cost accounting and market-based pricing to address price inversion issues [2] - Avoid forcing dealers to take vehicles through rebate policies, and encourage manufacturers to reduce high inventory levels [2] - Local government departments should enhance market competition management and address unfair competition and subsidy discrepancies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Harmony Auto (03836) reported a revenue of RMB 9.637 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.07% [1] - The company narrowed its loss to RMB 10.592 million, a reduction of 85.82% compared to the previous year [1] - The basic loss per share was RMB 0.008 [1] Group Performance - Despite a significant downturn in the Chinese automotive dealership industry, the company achieved a total sales volume of 30,666 vehicles, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 60.6%, which outpaced the overall market growth rate [1] - Sales in Hong Kong and overseas markets were a major growth driver, with 15,725 vehicles sold, accounting for 51.3% of total sales [1] - Domestic market sales remained stable at 14,941 vehicles, representing 48.7% of total sales [1] Financial Adjustments - Excluding non-recurring losses related to store closures amounting to RMB 32.5 million, the adjusted net profit for the group would be RMB 20.7 million, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 76.3 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of approximately RMB 97 million [1]

Core Insights - Harmony Auto (03836) reported a revenue of RMB 9.637 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.07% [1] - The company recorded a loss of RMB 10.592 million, which is an 85.82% reduction compared to the previous year [1] - Basic loss per share was RMB 0.008 [1] Company Performance - Despite a significant downturn in the Chinese automotive dealership industry, the company achieved a total sales volume of 30,666 vehicles in the first half of 2025, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 60.6% [1] - The sales growth rate notably exceeded the overall market growth rate, indicating the successful implementation of the company's strategic initiatives [1] Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong and overseas markets emerged as the primary growth drivers, with sales reaching 15,725 vehicles, accounting for 51.3% of total sales [1] - Domestic market sales remained stable, totaling 14,941 vehicles, which represents 48.7% of total sales [1] Financial Adjustments - Excluding non-recurring losses related to store closures amounting to RMB 32.5 million, the adjusted net profit for the company would be RMB 20.7 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 76.3 million in the same period of 2024, reflecting an increase of approximately RMB 97 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guoji Automobile announced a share buyback plan with a total amount between 25 million and 50 million yuan, with a maximum buyback price of 9.82 yuan per share, which is 54.40% higher than the current price of 6.36 yuan [1]. Company Overview - Guoji Automobile, established on March 26, 1999, and listed on March 5, 2001, is located in Haidian District, Beijing. The company primarily engages in automotive trade services and has expanded into automotive engineering contracting and related services [1]. - The revenue composition includes 65.89% from automotive import and domestic circulation, 29.76% from automotive engineering, 1.73% from automotive and parts export, 1.50% from automotive leasing, and 1.12% from other sources [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Guoji Automobile reported a revenue of 16.829 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 213 million yuan, down 14.32% year-on-year [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 1.575 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 284 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 15.29% to 38,700, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 18.06% to 38,654 shares [2]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 3.4342 million shares, and new entrants like GF Multi-Factor Mixed Fund [3].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is experiencing intensified competition, ongoing price wars, and significant penetration of new energy vehicles, leading to a shift in focus from volume to quality for dealers like Yongda Auto [2][9]. Group 1: Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's passenger car sales increased by 10.8% year-on-year to 10.902 million units, but the oversupply situation has intensified, leading to a price drop of 11.4% on average for new cars [2]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50.2%, with a single month exceeding 53.3%, impacting traditional fuel vehicle market share and shifting competition towards technology and service [2]. Group 2: Yongda Auto's Performance - Yongda Auto reported revenue of 27.072 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, maintaining profitability after asset impairment adjustments [3]. - The company improved operational quality, with inventory turnover days reduced to 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.4 days year-on-year, and net cash from operating activities increased by 66.9% to 1.167 billion yuan [3]. - The net debt ratio at the end of the period was 9.8%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating ongoing financial structure optimization [3]. Group 3: Operational Strategies - Yongda Auto implemented proactive inventory control and dynamic adjustments, reducing inventory balance to 4.986 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.8% from the end of 2024 [4]. - The company closed 19 non-core stores while opening 7 new stores focused on key brands, enhancing operational efficiency and brand concentration [4][5]. Group 4: New Energy and Aftermarket Growth - Yongda Auto's independent new energy brand sales reached 10,312 units, a 49% increase year-on-year, with direct sales mode growing by 123.1% [6]. - The average selling price of new energy vehicles was 267,300 yuan, with a gross margin exceeding 4%, significantly higher than traditional fuel vehicles [6]. - Aftermarket services for new energy vehicles generated 216 million yuan in revenue, a 75.8% increase, with a customer base of 72,300, reflecting a shift to a full-cycle operation model [7]. Group 5: Sustainable Development Logic - Yongda Auto's strategy of "controlling inventory, stabilizing cash flow, and enhancing services" aligns with the industry's transition from incremental to stock market competition [9][10]. - The company’s high after-sales absorption rate of 84.2% indicates that over 80% of fixed operating costs are covered by after-sales services, allowing new car sales to contribute minimally to overall profitability [10]. - The focus on quality over quantity positions Yongda Auto favorably in a market where service attributes are becoming more critical than sales attributes [10][11].