行 业 研 2025 年 09 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -34% 0% 34% 67% 101% 134% 168% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《OCS 或加速发展，光通信、液冷迎 新机遇—行业点评报告》-2025.9.8 《博通上调四季度指引，新增大客户 XPU 需求旺盛，全球 AI 景气度持续上 行—行业周报》-2025.9.7 《英伟达 Rubin 开启生产，阿里财报 亮眼，重视国产算力、液冷、光通信 投资机会—行业周报》-2025.8.31 Rubin CPX 或大幅提升光模块和液冷需求 ——行业点评报告 | 蒋颖（分析师） | 雷星宇（联系人） | | --- | --- | | jiangying@kysec.cn | leixingyu@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523120003 | 证书编号：S0790124040002 | leixingyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124040002 Rubin CPX 亮相，强化推理性能，有望带来更多互联需求 2025 年 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 355.41 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.37% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.73 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.41% [2] - Operating costs increased by 20.64% year-on-year, driven by business scale expansion [6] - Sales expenses rose by 20.42% due to increased sales personnel compensation and market expansion efforts [6] - Management expenses increased by 26.66%, primarily due to higher salaries for new market management personnel and increased service fees [6] - Financial expenses surged by 247.56%, mainly due to reduced interest income and increased interest expenses [6] Group 2: Strategic Focus and Future Plans - The company plans to enhance technology research and market expansion, particularly in liquid cooling technology and new markets like Thailand and Vietnam [3] - Efforts will be made to optimize production efficiency and reduce fixed costs through better production scheduling and coordination [3] - The company aims to deepen refined management and improve resource allocation to enhance input-output efficiency [3] - Future growth will focus on expanding market share in the server cooling product sector and increasing customer acquisition [5] Group 3: Market and Product Development - The company provides functional structural components for Apple products, with expected order increases following the launch of new devices [4] - Liquid cooling products are focused on the network communication and server sectors, with partnerships established with major domestic and international clients [4][7] - The company has obtained sample qualification from major North American clients and is actively working on product integration [7] - New customer acquisitions include partnerships with major firms like Pegatron, Murata Group, Foxconn, Meta, and Amazon [5] Group 4: Operational Challenges - Profit decline is attributed to multiple factors, including market fluctuations and increased resource investments during strategic expansions [3] - The company is currently in a traditional peak season for consumer electronics, with saturated order levels expected to improve operational metrics [6] - The company is committed to addressing rising costs and optimizing its operational structure to enhance profitability [3][5]

Core Insights - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on the liquid cooling sector, driven by the recent financial reports from major internet companies, indicating a significant rise in capital expenditures related to AI infrastructure [1][2][3] - The liquid cooling technology is seen as a critical upgrade for AI computing facilities, with a growing demand expected as companies invest heavily in this area [2][4] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Liquid cooling has emerged as the highest yielding sector for fund managers, with companies like Inspur Information, Invec, Feilong Co., and others becoming popular among funds [2][3] - Recent performance data shows that top-performing funds have achieved returns of up to 49.65% in the last month, largely due to heavy investments in the liquid cooling sector [2] - The capital expenditures of major companies like Alibaba and Tencent have significantly increased, with Alibaba reporting a 219.8% year-on-year growth in capital expenditures to 38.68 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Technological Upgrades - The shift from traditional air cooling to liquid cooling is driven by the increasing power density of AI chips, necessitating more efficient cooling solutions [4][5] - Liquid cooling is becoming a technical necessity as the demand for cooling solutions surpasses the limits of traditional air cooling methods, marking a pivotal year for the industry [4][5] - The long-term economic benefits of liquid cooling, including lower lifecycle costs, are making it an essential technology in the industry [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The liquid cooling market is expected to see a significant increase in penetration rates, with projections indicating a potential doubling of market share in the coming year [9] - Fund managers emphasize the importance of companies having established relationships with major overseas clients, particularly in the AI sector, as a key factor for investment decisions [6][7] - The liquid cooling sector is anticipated to transition from a phase of speculative trading to one driven by fundamental performance, as companies work to convert technological advancements into tangible results [9]

Core Insights - The recent financial reports from major internet companies have highlighted the lucrative potential of the liquid cooling sector, attracting increasing institutional investment [1][2] - Fund managers have identified liquid cooling as a high-performance investment avenue, with several stocks in this sector outperforming others in the market [2][3] Investment Opportunities - Liquid cooling technology is gaining traction due to its critical role in AI infrastructure, with significant capital expenditure increases reported by major companies like Alibaba and Tencent [2][3] - The capital expenditure of Alibaba reached 38.68 billion yuan, up 219.8% year-on-year, while Tencent's capital expenditure grew by 119% to 19.107 billion yuan [3] - Major North American tech companies collectively reported capital expenditures of $87.4 billion, a 69% increase year-on-year, indicating strong industry demand [3] Technological Advancements - The shift from traditional air cooling to liquid cooling is driven by the increasing power density of chips, necessitating more efficient cooling solutions [4][5] - Liquid cooling is becoming a technical necessity as AI-generated content drives rapid increases in power density, surpassing traditional cooling limits [4][6] - The industry is expected to see a significant increase in liquid cooling penetration, projected to reach 30%-50% in AI servers by 2026 [9][10] Market Trends - The liquid cooling sector is anticipated to experience a sustained market trend similar to that of optical modules and PCBs, with potential for price and volume increases [7][8] - Fund managers believe that the liquid cooling market is transitioning from speculative trading to being driven by fundamental changes in the industry [8][10] - The demand for liquid cooling solutions is expected to grow significantly, with the market for NVIDIA GPUs and ASIC chips projected to reach approximately 100 billion yuan by 2026 [9][10] Stock Selection Criteria - Fund managers emphasize the importance of selecting companies with established overseas client relationships, particularly those in the NVIDIA supply chain, as they tend to have higher profit margins [9][11] - Companies that can demonstrate technical capabilities and have a strong position in the supply chain are viewed as having significant growth potential [10][11] - The ability to secure large clients, especially in the overseas AI sector, is considered a critical factor in stock selection within the liquid cooling space [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is expected to be a significant year for the penetration of liquid cooling in NVIDIA's AI chip market, driven by increased power consumption per chip and the maturation of the liquid cooling supply chain [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The market size for liquid cooling is anticipated to grow significantly due to the rising power consumption of individual chips [1] - The adoption of liquid cooling solutions in ASIC cabinet configurations is expected to accelerate, enhancing market penetration [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Domestic manufacturers are introducing ultra-node solutions that will further boost the adoption of liquid cooling technologies [1] - The overall maturity of the liquid cooling industry is projected to facilitate rapid penetration in both the ASIC market and the domestic market, expanding market opportunities [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a sustained upward trend in demand, with leading companies showing significant profit growth in H1 2025. The production quotas for second-generation fluorinated refrigerants will be further reduced, and third-generation refrigerants will be subject to production quotas, tightening supply. This, combined with a steady recovery in downstream demand, is optimizing the supply-demand dynamics in the refrigerant market [1][2] - The price of refrigerants has been rising, leading to substantial increases in profitability for major companies. For instance, in H1 2025, the net profits of major domestic refrigerant companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., and Dongyue Group increased by 146.97%, 159.22%, 140.80%, and 153.28% respectively [1] - The price differences for third-generation refrigerants have significantly increased, with R32 prices rising by 15.24% since early July 2025 and 40.70% since the beginning of the year. The price difference for R32 reached 42,761 yuan/ton, reflecting a 19.68% increase since early July and a 66.79% increase since the beginning of the year [2] - Leading refrigerant companies are accelerating their entry into the liquid cooling sector, driven by tightening environmental regulations and increasing demand for AI computing power. Companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. are investing in high-value-added liquid cooling technologies, which are expected to benefit from the growing AI computing needs and domestic substitution opportunities [3][4] - The liquid cooling technology market is projected to grow significantly, with global market sizes expected to reach 4.5 billion USD in 2025 and 19.4 billion USD by 2032, representing a CAGR of 23% from 2025 to 2032 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry is in a high prosperity cycle, with major companies reporting strong performance due to supply constraints and rising prices [1][5] - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in downstream demand, which is expected to further support price increases in the refrigerant market [2] Price Trends - The report tracks significant price increases for key refrigerants, with R32, R125, and R134a showing notable price growth in 2025 [2][18] - The price of R32 reached 60,500 yuan/ton, marking a 40.70% increase since the beginning of 2025 [2] Company Developments - Major companies are expanding their operations into the liquid cooling market, with Juhua Co. planning to produce 5,000 tons/year of cooling liquid and Sanmei Co. launching a 19,000 tons/year electronic-grade fluorinated liquid project [3][4] - The transition to liquid cooling technologies is seen as a strategic move to capture growth opportunities in the AI sector and to leverage existing technological advantages [3][4]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight recovery, increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, indicating a modest improvement in market demand [1] - The production and new orders indices were reported at 50.8% and 49.5%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a warming in manufacturing market demand [1] - The company observes structural opportunities in AI infrastructure and new consumption, with expectations for improved profitability in downstream manufacturing by the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Excavator sales, both domestic and international, saw significant year-on-year growth of 17% and 32% respectively, indicating a positive outlook for external sales and improving profit margins for manufacturers [2] - Companies such as XCMG, Liugong, and Zoomlion are recommended for investment due to their potential in the improving market [2] Group 3 - Leading companies in lithium battery equipment, such as Sieng and Hanke Technology, have shown a turning point in revenue, profit, and cash flow, confirming the timely release of downstream demand [3] - An investment of approximately 6 billion yuan is expected for solid-state battery research, with potential short-term catalysts anticipated from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's project acceptance [3] - Long-term trends indicate increasing battery penetration rates in Europe and the U.S., with recommendations for companies like Sieng, Hanke Technology, Lianying Laser, and Keda Li [3] Group 4 - The PCB equipment and materials sector is entering a new innovation and expansion cycle, with capital expenditure expected to accelerate from the fourth quarter of 2024 [4] - The PCB industry's capital expenditure is projected to increase monthly, with potential for upward revisions in industry orders [4] - In the liquid cooling segment, demand is expected to rise due to overseas capital expenditure expansion, with recommendations for companies like Invec and Tsugami Machine Tool [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly in technology sectors such as AI chips, PCB, optical modules, and liquid cooling, driven by profit-taking from a structural bull market that began in April [1][3] Market Environment - Despite structural pressures, there is no systemic risk in the current market environment, with liquidity support from coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [4] - The market's short-term adjustments are seen as normal profit-taking rather than a trend reversal, with expectations for continued upward movement after the current fluctuations [4] Sector Performance - The technology sector is outperforming traditional industries, with new industries and consumption showing significant growth [5][6] - The share of traditional industries in GDP is declining, while high-tech industries are expanding rapidly, with the "three new" sectors expected to account for 18.01% of GDP by 2024 [6][8] - Earnings reports indicate strong performance in the electronics and computer sectors, with revenue and profit growth significantly outpacing traditional sectors [10] Policy Support - The Chinese government continues to emphasize technology innovation as a core directive, with upcoming policies expected to further support the technology sector [13] - The focus on "AI+" initiatives and the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan discussions suggest ongoing policy backing for technological advancements [13] Investment Recommendations - In the medium to long term, sectors such as AI and robotics are expected to remain core investment themes, despite current market overheating [14] - High-growth sectors with reasonable valuations, such as non-ferrous metals and innovative pharmaceuticals, are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [14][15] - The pet economy and smart home appliances within the new consumption sector are also identified as having significant growth potential [16] - Additionally, undervalued sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries are recommended for investment due to improving supply-demand dynamics and favorable valuations [17]

Company and Industry Summary Industry Overview - The company operates in the liquid cooling industry, focusing on products such as heat sinks and liquid cooling plates, which are utilized in servers, aerospace, 5G communication, data centers, and energy storage batteries [2][3][5]. Company Profile - Established in 2009, the company has experienced a sales growth rate of 20%-50% from 2013 to 2022, increasing revenue from 170 million to 650 million RMB [2][5]. - The company is expanding its production lines to enter new markets, including electric vehicles, energy storage batteries, and renewable energy sectors [2][5]. Key Clients and Partnerships - Major clients include Huawei, ZTE, DJI, Dell, and BYD, with long-term collaborations with Hikvision and Dahua [2][4]. - The company has become a core supplier for Huawei, with several products exempt from inspection [5][12]. Product and Technology Advantages - The company has its own mold manufacturing and R&D centers, along with multiple production bases equipped for metal processing [3][5]. - It offers advanced thermal management solutions, including stamped lead welding and diffusion black cooling plates [3]. - The company is expected to achieve sales of 900-1,000 million RMB by the end of 2025, with a gross margin of 15%-20% and a profit margin above 5% [3][9]. Market Challenges - Entering the data center liquid cooling market poses significant challenges due to high technical requirements and stringent quality standards set by major clients like Huawei [7][8]. - The company faces competition from established suppliers such as Inke and Dongchuang, which currently dominate the market [8]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that NVIDIA orders will contribute 300-500 million RMB to its revenue in 2026, representing 20%-30% of total sales [11]. - The company is also exploring further development in liquid cooling technology and products to meet market demands [14][15]. Product Customization - Liquid cooling plates are customized for different clients, ensuring unique design solutions rather than standardized modules [17]. Cost and Profitability - The cost of a single liquid cooling plate accounts for approximately 5% of the total cost in intelligent computing centers, indicating a significant investment in cooling technology [18]. - The company aims for a profit margin of at least 20% on its liquid cooling products, reflecting its focus on high-value offerings [19]. Market Trends - There is an increasing demand for dual-sided cooling plates, which can enhance cooling efficiency by 30%-50%, making them more favorable among users [19][20]. - The second half of the year has seen accelerated data center construction and equipment procurement, indicating a robust market demand [21].

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