Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Since the listing of propylene on July 22, its price has been oscillating downward, affected by the "Anti-Involution" policy and device maintenance. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include the industrial chain's commissioning progress, the impact of PDH profit on operation, the PP market's performance, the influence of the "Anti-Involution" policy, and potential delivery issues [1]. - The Q4 price range of propylene is estimated to be between 6,000 - 6,700 yuan/ton. Recommended strategies are range trading for the single - side, backwardation for the inter - month, and range trading for the PP - PL spread. Also, consider buying MA and shorting PL based on Iran's gas restrictions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - Since July 22, the main contract price of propylene has oscillated downward from a high of 6,694 yuan/ton to a low of 6,354 yuan/ton, influenced by the "Anti - Involution" policy and device fluctuations [2]. - The "Anti - Involution" policy, which involves assessing old petrochemical devices, mainly affects market expectations and sentiment, increasing price volatility [3]. - Device fluctuations in the Shandong market, such as Zhenhua's device malfunctions and adjustments by Jineng and Yulong based on the propylene - polypropylene spread, can cause significant price changes [3]. - The propylene basis has been expanding. The spot market is more sensitive to supply - demand changes, while the 01 contract is under pressure due to potential delivery issues and the influence of the PP market [5]. - The 01 - 02 month spread of propylene has been oscillating in the range of - 100 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, with a tendency towards backwardation due to the 01 contract being a mandatory delivery month [7]. - The propylene - polypropylene spread showed a V - shaped pattern in Q3, currently at a yearly low [9]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Focus on the Industrial Chain Commissioning Rhythm - From January to September, 808 million tons of propylene and 565 million tons of polypropylene (415 million tons of pellets and 150 million tons of powder) were commissioned, mostly as supporting capacities. The impact on the supply - demand gap by the end of the year depends on different commissioning scenarios [11]. - In the Shandong market, the supply - demand situation is more important. As of now, it is looser than in 2024. By the end of the year, different commissioning plans will lead to different supply - demand gaps [11]. 3.2 PDH Profit Remains Crucial - PDH and refinery catalytic cracking have a significant impact on the propylene trading market. In Q4, profit will remain a key factor. With propane in the seasonal peak, PDH is currently at a loss, and some factories plan maintenance. PP overcapacity also adds pressure [15][17]. 3.3 PP Operation Still Needs Key Attention - The price of the propylene main contract is highly correlated with the PP futures price. PP accounts for about 70% of propylene demand. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include supply - side profit - related operation fluctuations, demand - side performance during the peak season, the PP - propylene spread, and the impact of macro - policies [19]. 3.4 Continuous Tracking of the "Anti - Involution" Policy - The "Anti - Involution" policy has increased market volatility since June, and its impact will be greater in Q4. The assessment of old devices is more for technological improvement, with a relatively small impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The coal market may affect market sentiment. The reduction of South Korea's cracking capacity will reduce imports to China, but domestic production can make up for it [24]. 3.5 Potential Delivery Issues - Propylene has high storage and transportation requirements. The current exchange settings have designated delivery areas and depots, with a 100 - yuan/ton discount for South China's depots. There may be delivery problems in South China, and the discount may not cover the friction costs [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.1 Valuation Feedback - PDH cost provides support. In Q4, propane prices are relatively strong, and the 01 PDH cost is about 6,400 yuan/ton, with a neutral valuation [27]. - The PP - PL spread is oscillating at a low level. Historically, the spread is mostly between 400 - 800 yuan/ton, currently around 500 yuan/ton, with a neutral short - term outlook [31]. - The olefin/methanol ratio is expected to decline in Q4 due to potential gas restrictions in Iran affecting methanol supply [33]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - From January to August, domestic propylene production was 394.4 million tons, a 13.21% year - on - year increase. In Q4, production is expected to remain high under high commissioning, and PDH profit is crucial for external supply [35][36]. - PP is expected to maintain high production in Q4, supporting propylene demand but with limited upward price space. Other downstream industries are also affected by profit and need continuous profit tracking [41]. - The Shandong market is more important for supply - demand balance. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include supply - side PDH profit and propylene - polypropylene spread, and demand - side new project commissioning and the operation of main downstream industries [42][43].

南华期货PX-TA产业周报 ——"反内卷"情绪复苏，估值低位反弹 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 ） 周嘉伟（期货从业资格证号：F03133676） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 PX-TA近期在"化工反内卷"情绪复苏与需求边际好转带动下价格低位反弹，但后续来看，聚酯旺季高度难 言期待，预计主要以季节性阶段性走强为主，聚酯开工上长丝短纤已提至高位，继续提负空间有限，聚酯负 荷高点仍依赖瓶片开工表现。供应端来看，近期PTA检修计划公布较多，若后续兑现，PX-TA结构性矛盾近端 12月之前将得到缓解，因此PTA加工费近期走扩。但格局上PTA偏过剩格局预期压制PTA加工费修复力度，结 构性矛盾仍需PTA工厂的额外检修量来缓解，加工费扩张幅度有限。总体而言，近期在商品情绪不振压制下 PX-TA产业链绝对价格承压严重，继续压缩空间较为有限，后续进入十月终端需求与情绪预计延续边际好 转，同时宏观预期影响力度或大于基本面悲观预期的压制力度；在操作上，可考虑谨慎试多，或通过做扩TA- SC价差表达；加工费方面，TA01盘面加工 ...

Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the PMI data for September on September 30, with August's manufacturing PMI at 49.4%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from July; the non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points; and the composite PMI output index at 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating continued economic expansion in China [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) held a monetary policy committee meeting, signaling a shift towards enhancing the foresight, targeting, and effectiveness of monetary policy, while maintaining policy continuity and stability [2] - The PBOC, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly announced that foreign institutional investors can participate in bond repurchase transactions in China's bond market, aligning trading methods with international standards [2][3] Industry Growth Plans - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments issued a growth plan for the petrochemical industry, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% in value-added from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on technological innovation and environmental sustainability [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight departments released a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added and a 1.5% increase in the production of ten non-ferrous metals from 2025 to 2026 [4] Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the classification results for securities firms in 2025, with 53 classified as A, 43 as B, and 11 as C, indicating a stable distribution among categories [6] - Wanda Group's chairman Wang Jianlin faced high consumption restrictions due to economic disputes involving subsidiary projects, with the company clarifying that negotiations were ongoing [7] IPO and Stock Market Activity - Moore Threads' IPO application has been approved, with plans to raise 8 billion yuan, positioning it as a potential leader in the domestic GPU market [7] - Zhongji Xuchuang announced plans to reduce its stake by up to 0.49% through block trading, with no impact on company control or governance structure [8] Regulatory Actions - Fuhuang Steel Structure is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations, while the company continues normal operations and will cooperate with the investigation [9][10]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is facing challenges such as intensified competition in the basic organic raw materials market, insufficient supply of high-end fine chemicals, slowing domestic demand growth, and increasing external uncertainties. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments have released a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry for 2025-2026, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in added value [1] - The plan emphasizes the need to strictly control new refining capacity and rationally determine the scale and pace of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity, while preventing overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol industry. It supports the transformation of old petrochemical facilities and the industrialization of new technologies [1][3] - The industry is undergoing a market reshuffle, with refining capacities below 2 million tons/year being phased out. Major projects such as the 20 million tons/year integrated refining and chemical project by Yulong Petrochemical and the 6 million tons/year expansion project by Daxie Petrochemical are coming online, further accelerating the market reshuffle [3] Group 2 - The chemical industry is experiencing severe homogenization issues, with a significant increase in production capacity leading to limited profit margins. The capacity utilization rate in the chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing sector has declined from 80% in Q2 2021 to 72% in the same period this year [5] - The petrochemical industry has seen a rapid development over the past decade, with new integrated refining and chemical facilities being continuously put into operation. However, this has led to "involution" competition, where production increases do not translate into profit growth. Major petrochemical products have seen capacity and output increases of over 50% in the past five years, resulting in declining profitability for companies [5] - The growth stabilization plan suggests focusing on high value-added areas to enhance high-end supply, targeting key industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, and medical equipment. Companies with early layouts in high value-added fields are expected to benefit [6]

新闻聚焦 ◐ 国家能源局：截至8月底全国累计发电装机容量36.9亿千瓦，同比增长1 8. 0%。 9月2 6日，国家能源局发布1—8月份全国电力 工业统计数据。截至8月底，全国累计发电装机容量36 .9亿千瓦，同比增长1 8. 0%。其中，太阳能发电装机容量11. 2亿千瓦，同 比增长48. 5%；风电装机容量5. 8亿千瓦，同比增长22 . 1%。1 - 8月份，全国发电设备累计平均利用21 05小时，比上年同期降低 2 2 3小时。 【更多详情】 国内新闻 ◐ 《电力安全事故应急处置和调查处理条例》征求意见稿发布。 9月26日，国家能源局发布《电力安全事故应急处置和调查处 理条例》（征求意见稿）。其中指出，事故发生后，电力企业、电力用户及其他并入电网运行的主体等有关单位和个人应当按照 规定及时、准确报告事故情况，开展应急处置工作，防止事故扩大，减轻事故损害。电力企业及其他并入电网运行的主体等应当 尽快恢复电力生产、电网运行和电力正常供应。 【更多详情】 ◐ 《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（202 5—202 6年）》发布。 9月25日，工业和信息化部等7部门发布的《石化化工行业稳增 长工作方案（2 02 5 ...

9.26【★★ ★ ★★】 券商新规 来了！券商交易结算系统，将迎新规>> 近日，记者获悉，中证协正就新起草的《证券公司交易结算系统压力测试指引》（下称《测试指引》） 征求意见。 中证协表示，证券市场交易量快速放大，证券公司交易系统性能不足的问题频发。在此背景下，证券行 业亟需切实提升性能容量管理能力，以有效应对市场波动带来的冲击。为加强行业压力测试体系建设， 协会组织起草了《测试指引》。 9.26【★★★★★】 香港市场 香港金管局公布人民币流动资金安排优化措施，将于10月9日生效>> 为更好地满足离岸人民币业务增长所带来的潜在流动性需求，香港金融管理局（以下简称香港金管局） 于9月26日宣布，将推出人民币流动资金安排优化措施（以下简称优化措施），于2025年10月9日生效。 据香港金管局总裁余伟文介绍，从今年10月9日起，香港金管局推出"人民币业务资金安排"，取代现有 的"人民币贸易融资流动资金安排"，并实施多项优化措施及扩展合资格资金用途。优化措施包括两方 面： 一是重新分配日间和即日隔夜人民币资金额度。香港金管局现时通过人民币流动资金安排提供各200亿 元的日间和隔夜人民币资金额度。自生效日起，维持4 ...

继多个行业稳增长方案出台后，石化化工行业纲领文件终于落地。 9月26日，工业和信息化部等7部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025－2026年）》（以下 简称《工作方案》）。《工作方案》提出，2025—2026年，石化化工行业增加值年均增长5%以上。 《工作方案》锚定清晰系列目标：严格控制新增炼油等产能；支持电子化学品、高端聚烯烃等关键产品 攻关；培育新能源、低空经济等新兴领域应用场景；加强精细化工、绿色低碳、人工智能等领域交流合 作。 "严控新增产能投放节奏，是避免行业陷入大幅过剩、产品价格快速恶化的关键。对于已经过剩的行 业，更需通过老旧装置改造、控产能、环保整改等组合措施，优化产品供需格局。"东吴证券研究所能 源化工行业首席分析师陈淑娴对上海证券报记者表示。 严控新增炼油产能 优化高端精细化学品供给 多年来，我国连续位居世界第二石化大国、第一化工大国。当前，石化化工行业仍面临基础有机原料市 场竞争加剧、高端精细化学品供给不足、国内需求增速放缓、外部不确定性增加等挑战，行业转型升级 压力凸显。针对这一供需现状，《工作方案》从"控增量、补短板"两方面提出具体举措。 在产能调控上，文件明确要求严控新 ...

Macro Economy - The Ministry of Education and five other departments issued the "County High School Revitalization Action Plan," focusing on high-quality development in county-level high school education, proposing eight major actions including resource expansion and improvement of school conditions [2] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting on the economic operation of state-owned enterprises, emphasizing stable electricity and coal prices, preventing "involution" competition, and promoting high-quality investment for value growth [2] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security reported that the basic pension insurance fund's investment operation scale reached 2.6 trillion, doubling since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual investment return rate of 5.15% over the past eight years [2] Investment News - On September 26, A-shares experienced a downturn, with the ChiNext index falling below 3200 points, driven by a decline in technology stocks, while copper and wind power stocks showed strength [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.35%, with technology and pharmaceutical stocks generally declining, while some Chinese banks and insurance stocks rose [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission updated several administrative penalty decisions, targeting four securities practitioners for illegal stock trading, with penalties totaling 159 million yuan and a five-year market ban for one individual [5] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a meeting focusing on the implementation of the "1+6" policy measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to enhance market attractiveness and inclusivity [5] - The current stock private equity position index has reached the highest level of the year, with significant increases in positions among large private equity firms, indicating a spreading optimistic sentiment [5] Company Movements - Wahaha's family inheritance dispute has seen new developments, with the Hong Kong High Court rejecting an appeal from the defendants but allowing a temporary suspension of the disclosure order [6] - Yonghui Supermarket received a warning from the Sichuan Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to timely disclose changes in equity due to a reduction in its stake in Hongqi Chain [7] - Yushun Technology's CEO announced several iterations of their robot algorithm this year, with expectations to release a 1.8-meter humanoid robot in the second half of the year, as the domestic robot industry sees growth rates between 50% and 100% [7] - Moer Thread's initial public offering application has successfully passed the review by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aiming to raise 8 billion yuan for the development of a new generation of AI training and inference chips [7] International Dynamics - On September 26, U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.65%, driven by gains in Boeing and Travelers Group, while Chinese concept stocks mostly declined [10] - U.S. President Trump announced new high tariffs on imports of heavy trucks, building materials, furniture, and pharmaceuticals starting October 1 [10] - The White House clarified that the latest tariff measures on pharmaceuticals do not apply to countries with existing trade agreements with the U.S., maintaining a 15% tariff cap for partners like the EU and Japan [10]

近日，工业和信息化部等7部门联合印发的《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》（下称 《方案》）提出，2025年至2026年，石化化工行业增加值年均增长5%以上。 当前，基础有机原料市场竞争加剧、高端精细化学品供给不足，国内需求增速放缓、外部不确定性增 加，是制约石化化工行业发展质量和效益提升的主要矛盾。期货日报记者发现，《方案》聚焦石化化工 行业发展面临的新形势、新挑战，旨在统筹推进稳增长和促转型，坚持培育行业增长新动能和更新旧动 能相结合、供给质量提升与内外需求拓展相结合、市场主导与政府引导相结合，着力实现石化化工行业 质的有效提升和量的合理增长，夯实行业高质量发展基础。 "《方案》向石化化工行业传递出政策重心转向精细化调控的清晰信号。"广发期货能化分析师苗扬表 示，《方案》对石化化工行业提出了一系列新要求：必须从规模扩张转向质量效益提升；重点发展电子 化学品、高性能材料等高端产品；加快全流程自动化改造和减污降碳技术应用；投资导向体现"有扶有 控"；严格限制炼油等结构性错配产能；重点支持技术改造、安全升级以及与新能源等新兴领域对接的 项目。 苗扬认为，《方案》对石化行业稳增长的影响是结构性的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments, aiming for an annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value during this period, with a focus on innovation, efficiency, demand expansion, and collaboration [2]. Group 1: Strengthening Technological Innovation - Enhance high-end supply by focusing on key industrial chains such as integrated circuits and new energy, supporting the development of electronic chemicals and high-performance materials through collaborative innovation [3]. - Ensure stable supply of fertilizers by optimizing production plans and establishing long-term contracts between raw material suppliers and fertilizer producers [3]. - Optimize pilot project management to enhance innovation development momentum by streamlining approval processes and reducing environmental assessment burdens for pilot projects [4]. Group 2: Expanding Effective Investment - Control major project construction scientifically, limiting new refining capacity and supporting the transformation of outdated facilities [5]. - Implement safety upgrades for aging facilities, establishing a standard system for evaluation and renovation, and ensuring the relocation of hazardous chemical production enterprises by the end of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Accelerating Digital and Green Transformation - Promote digital transformation in the petrochemical industry by establishing benchmarks and typical scenarios, and supporting enterprises in energy-saving and pollution reduction efforts [6]. - Develop standards for pollution reduction and carbon reduction, including guidelines for green hydrogen and digital transformation maturity assessments [7]. Group 4: Expanding Market Demand - Facilitate supply-demand matching by organizing product connection activities and promoting stable cooperation between production enterprises and downstream users [8]. - Explore new applications in emerging industries such as new energy and low-altitude economy, and promote the use of green products [8]. Group 5: Developing High-Quality Growth Engines - Build high-quality chemical parks and industrial clusters, focusing on safety and competitiveness evaluations, and enhancing collaboration with national economic development zones [9]. Group 6: Deepening Open Cooperation - Expand international cooperation by addressing changes in the international trade environment and leveraging free trade agreements to enhance the export of petrochemical products [10].