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中航沈飞:净利率水平创历史新高;歼击机龙头持续高质量发展-20250403
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-03 13:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit margin, with a significant increase in profitability driven by improved product gross margins and enhanced cost control measures [1][3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for national defense equipment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by its leading position in the aviation manufacturing sector and ongoing reforms [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue of 428.4 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 7.4%, while net profit reached 33.9 billion, up 12.9% year-over-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company experienced a substantial revenue increase of 51% year-over-year, with net profit soaring by 145% [1]. - The gross margin for the year was 12.5%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-over-year, while the net margin improved to 8.0%, up 1.46 percentage points [1][3]. Cost Management - The company achieved its lowest expense ratio in five years at 3.2%, reflecting strong lean management capabilities [2]. - The breakdown of expenses includes a sales expense ratio of 0.01%, a management expense ratio of 2.2%, and a research and development expense ratio of 1.7% [2]. Product and Subsidiary Performance - The aviation manufacturing segment generated revenue of 425.5 billion, with a gross margin of 12.5% [3]. - The subsidiary, Jihang Company, reported a revenue increase of 56.8% year-over-year, significantly contributing to the company's integrated industry layout [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 492.84 billion, 571.94 billion, and 662.02 billion, respectively, with net profit projections of 38.27 billion, 45.60 billion, and 53.83 billion [3][5]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 30.92, 25.95, and 21.98 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3][5].
中航沈飞(600760):净利率水平创历史新高,歼击机龙头持续高质量发展
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-03 10:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit margin, with a total revenue of 42.84 billion and a year-over-year decrease of 7.4%. However, the net profit increased by 12.9% to 3.39 billion, driven by improved product gross margins and enhanced cost control [1][3]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a significant revenue increase of 51% year-over-year, with a net profit surge of 145%. The gross margin for the quarter was 12.4%, up by 1.20 percentage points, and the net margin was 9.2%, up by 3.37 percentage points [1][2]. - The company has successfully implemented two phases of equity incentives, reflecting its commitment to high-quality development and investor returns. The aviation manufacturing segment generated 42.55 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 12.5%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points [3][5]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 46,247.78 million in 2023, with a projected revenue of 42,837.24 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of -7.37%. The net profit for 2023 was 3,007.15 million, expected to rise to 3,393.97 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.86% [5][11]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected at 5,289.04 million, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 34.86 [5][11]. - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 55,466.44 million in 2023 to 61,589.83 million in 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 69.07% [12]. Operational Efficiency - The company achieved its lowest expense ratio in five years at 3.2%, down by 0.45 percentage points year-over-year. The selling expense ratio was 0.01%, while the management expense ratio increased slightly to 2.2% [2][3]. - The company has made significant progress in digital transformation and key projects, contributing to its overall operational efficiency and cost management [1][3]. Market Position - As a leading player in the aviation manufacturing sector, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for national defense equipment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" periods. The company is also actively expanding its overseas military trade market [3][5].
航发动力(600893):短期业绩承压,看好公司中长期军、民机业务发展
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-03 10:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 47.88 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 860 million yuan, down 39.5% year-on-year, primarily due to increased R&D and financial expenses, as well as reduced investment income [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term development of military and civil aviation businesses, despite short-term performance pressures [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company recorded its highest quarterly revenue of 21.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, but the net profit dropped by 65.7% to 130 million yuan [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 10.1%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 2.1%, down 1.42 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The revenue from the main product line, aviation engines and related products, was 44.99 billion yuan, up 10.0% year-on-year, while the gross margin for this segment was 9.5%, down 0.48 percentage points [3]. Business Development Insights - The company is deeply involved in the development of domestic commercial engines and is a key supplier of core components, which positions it to benefit from the growth of the domestic large aircraft industry [3]. - The company has signed a significant procurement contract for 1,500 general aviation power products, valued at over 10 billion yuan, indicating strong market demand [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 47.69 billion yuan, 53.32 billion yuan, and 58.97 billion yuan respectively, with net profit forecasts of 690 million yuan, 888 million yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan [4][5]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 126.21x, 98.12x, and 74.46x respectively, reflecting the company's valuation outlook [4][5].
中航沈飞(600760):2024年报点评:歼-35A惊艳亮相,看好我国战斗机龙头长期发展
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-01 07:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 42.837 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.37%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.394 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.86% [2] - The revenue decline was primarily due to fluctuations in military procurement cycles and delays in order deliveries, but the net profit growth was driven by improved gross margins and reduced expense ratios [2][3] - The company made significant technological advancements in the aerospace defense sector, including breakthroughs in lightweight design and domestic upgrades of avionics systems [3] - The implementation of a second phase of the stock incentive plan aimed at binding high-end talent further supports the company's growth strategy [4] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 46.248 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 47.787 billion yuan for 2025, and 56.693 billion yuan for 2026, indicating a recovery trend [1][11] - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 is 3.539 billion yuan and 4.383 billion yuan respectively, with an expected net profit of 5.051 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.23 yuan, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecasted from 34.33 in 2024 to 23.07 in 2027 [1][4]
中航重机(600765):短期业绩承压,长期拓展大军工市场发展动力强劲
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-01 01:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [7][18]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.36 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, and a net profit of 640 million, down 52.2% year-on-year, primarily due to price adjustments by key model customers [1]. - The company is focusing on high-value areas in aviation, with commercial aviation revenue exceeding 1 billion, a 71% increase year-on-year, and a growing market share in key aviation models [2]. - The company is actively expanding into new fields such as civil aviation, commercial engines, aerospace, and deep-sea markets, with a long-term goal of achieving stable growth [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the comprehensive gross margin was 23.7%, down 7.59 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 7.4%, down 5.84 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 is 11.51 billion, representing an 11% year-on-year growth, with net profit expected to reach 1.26 billion, a 97.57% increase [5][6]. - The company’s operating cash flow was negative 80 million in 2024, a significant decline from 700 million in the previous year, primarily due to difficulties in sales collections [3]. Business Segmentation - The forging and casting business generated 8.27 billion in revenue, down 11.5% year-on-year, while the hydraulic and environmental control business achieved 1.84 billion, down 7.3% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s focus on research and development is evident, with a R&D expense ratio of 6.5%, supporting technological innovation and industry upgrades [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a revenue of 11.5 billion in 2025, with a profit target of 1.3 billion, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][5]. - The company is building a comprehensive material research and regeneration system, which is expected to enhance long-term profitability by potentially reducing material costs [4].