国金证券近日发布基础化工行业研究：2025年8月，我国新能源汽车销量为139.5万辆， 同比增长26.82%，渗透率为48.8%。2025年1-8月，新能源汽车销量为962万辆，同比增长 36.7%，渗透率为45.5%。随着各大厂家加速向新能源转型，我们对2025年新能源车市场的 发展保持积极乐观的态度。 基本面角度来看，行业整体需求虽然相对稳定，但结构上来看半钢替换市场支撑力度更 强，拥有海外基地产能增量的龙头企业收入有望继续向好。盈利方面随着关税影响逐渐被消 化叠加原料价格回落，预计企业盈利也将得到一定程度的修复。贸易风险角度来看，美国关 税长期预计基本可通过终端涨价实现传导；欧盟正式对进口自中国的新乘用车及轻卡充气橡 胶轮胎启动反倾销调查，拥有多个海外基地的轮胎企业可通过灵活调配订单来规避风险，若 裁定税率较高，考虑到短期供应紧缺且海外产能扩建周期相对较长，预计未来2-3年海外产 能出口欧盟订单将会具备较好的涨价弹性和盈利空间。虽然行业仍然存在竞争加剧、双反关 税、原料价格抬升等风险，但从产业趋势角度来看，一方面需求端在消费降级背景下高性价 比的轮胎市场仍然具备增长潜力，远期国产轮胎能抢占的市场空间天花 ...

Tire Industry Research Summary Industry Overview - The tire industry is expected to see improvements in fundamentals in the second half of 2025, with confidence in orders and profitability. Leading companies show stronger performance resilience, particularly those with a higher proportion of all-steel tires, while semi-steel tires are more affected by tax increases [1][3]. - The U.S. market's trade risks have largely passed, while the EU market is expected to be favorable for the industry in the medium term, aiding in the optimization of industry structure. Attention is recommended for leading companies that have successfully expanded overseas [1][5]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Overall tire demand is projected to grow in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in the semi-steel replacement market and strong support from the all-steel replacement market, although the original equipment market is expected to slow down [1][2][6]. - The export of passenger car tires is expected to remain flat, while truck and bus tire exports are projected to increase by 2%. Despite trade policy restrictions, truck and bus tire exports have reached record highs, primarily to Asia, Africa, and South America [1][8][9]. Import and Export Trends - The U.S. market shows a strong dependency on imported tires, with a slight increase in passenger car tire imports and a more than 10% increase in truck and bus tire imports in the first half of 2025. Major import sources include Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia [11][12][13]. - The EU's anti-dumping policies are anticipated to impact passenger car tire exports to Europe, with a projected decline following the May 2025 anti-dumping application [10]. Financial Performance and Profitability - Raw material prices are expected to rebound in the third quarter of 2025, with companies having low-cost inventory from the second quarter, which may lead to profit recovery. However, the first half of 2025 saw a decline in profitability due to high raw material prices and tariffs [4][14]. - The tire sector's revenue grew by 10% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 30% due to high raw material costs and unexpected tariff events [15][21]. Company Performance Insights - Leading companies like Sailun, Zhongce, and Linglong have shown strong sales performance, with Sailun achieving a record high in quarterly sales, growing by 10% year-on-year [17][21]. - Despite the overall industry pressure on profit margins, some companies like Guirun have demonstrated better-than-expected operational management [19][20]. Globalization and Market Positioning - Leading tire companies have significant advantages in global layout, with established operations in Southeast Asia and plans for expansion into regions like Mexico, Morocco, and Brazil [22][25]. - The importance of overseas business is highlighted by Sailun's overseas revenue growth of 19% in the first half of 2025, indicating a robust international presence [23]. Future Outlook - The tire industry, while facing challenges, is expected to continue growing due to its large market size and strong demand support. Leading companies are likely to enhance their market share through globalization and operational efficiency improvements [27][28]. - The third quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a peak season for the replacement market, with demand support expected to strengthen [28]. Recommendations - Focus on leading companies such as Sailun and Zhongce, as well as others like Senking, Linglong, and General, for potential performance recovery opportunities in the face of international trade policy changes [31][32][33].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable overall demand in the tire industry, with a stronger support in the semi-steel replacement market, and suggests that leading companies with overseas production capacity are likely to see continued revenue growth [4]. Core Viewpoints - The global tire market demand is expected to grow by 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 918 million units, with semi-steel tires growing by 2% to 812 million units and full steel tires increasing by 1% to 106 million units [1][12]. - China's tire export growth is slowing, with passenger car tire exports remaining flat at 172 million units and truck tire exports increasing by 2% to 63 million units in the first half of 2025 [1][27]. - The U.S. market shows strong import demand, with passenger car tire imports increasing by 3% to 84.91 million units and truck tire imports rising by 12% to 32.65 million units in the first half of 2025 [1][45]. Summary by Sections Industry Review: Demand Support and Slowing Export Growth - Global tire demand is slightly increasing, with the semi-steel replacement market showing stronger support [12]. - China's passenger car tire exports are stable, while truck tire exports are growing [27]. - The U.S. continues to rely heavily on tire imports, with significant contributions from Southeast Asian countries [45]. Sector Analysis: Revenue Growth and Profitability Decline - The tire sector achieved total revenue of 55.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year, but net profit fell by 30% to 4 billion yuan [2][61]. - The overall sales gross margin decreased by 5.2 percentage points to 18.4%, and the net profit margin declined by 4.1 percentage points to 7.5% [2][65]. Company Performance: Notable Divergence in Results - Leading domestic tire companies are expected to continue increasing their market share, with SaiLun Tire's revenue growing by 16% to 17.6 billion yuan, despite a 14.9% decline in net profit [3]. - Companies with overseas production bases are showing stronger operational resilience, while many foreign tire companies are announcing factory closures and production cuts [3][4]. Globalization of Leading Tire Companies - Leading tire companies are expanding their global presence, with new production bases in Indonesia and Mexico, and ongoing projects in Egypt and Serbia [3][4]. - The report highlights that domestic tire companies are seizing opportunities to capture global market share amid the closure of foreign competitors [4]. Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability as tariff impacts are gradually absorbed and raw material prices decline [4]. - The potential for price increases in the EU market due to anti-dumping investigations is noted, which could benefit companies with flexible order management [4].

Core Insights - The strategic partnership between Jiushi Intelligent and General Motors has been officially established, focusing on the delivery of autonomous logistics vehicles [1] - The E6 autonomous logistics vehicle is designed to address industry pain points such as emergency replenishment at night and safe delivery in adverse weather conditions, enhancing service response speed and customer satisfaction [1] - The introduction of the E6 vehicle will further digitize the entire supply chain from production to delivery, strengthening the dual competitiveness of "product + service" [1]

Group 1 - The company announced the convening of the fourth board meeting and the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 to review and approve the proposal for changing its business scope and amending governance documents [2] - The company has completed the industrial and commercial change registration and the filing of the Articles of Association, and has obtained a new business license issued by the Qingdao Market Supervision Administration [2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining core investment themes while exploring new platforms in the A-share market for the fourth quarter of 2025 [2][4] - Key recommended sectors include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, military industry, financial IT, power equipment, and agricultural products [3] - The report anticipates a more abundant liquidity environment due to expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, which may enhance market expectations [4][10] Group 2 - Economic growth is projected to steadily decline, with GDP growth expected at 5.0% for 2025, and 4.6% for Q4 2025 [10][11] - Consumer retail sales are forecasted to grow by 3.8% for the year, with a significant slowdown in investment across various sectors, particularly in real estate, which is expected to decline by 14.3% [10][11] - The report highlights that while exports are expected to maintain a high level of activity, a slight decline in growth is anticipated in Q4 due to high base effects from the previous year [19][24] Group 3 - The report discusses the anticipated recovery of the RMB exchange rate, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may attract foreign capital inflows [42][61] - It notes that the central bank has a clear intention to guide the RMB towards appreciation, which is crucial for maintaining market liquidity [47][61] - The report also indicates that the RMB's appreciation could lead to increased foreign investment in domestic stocks, enhancing overall market liquidity [61][62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The tire production and sales have seen significant growth, but profitability is under short-term pressure due to rising raw material costs and tariffs [5][9] - The company reported a total revenue of 11.812 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.80%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.66% [4][5] - The company is actively expanding its global footprint with the construction of a new factory in Brazil, which will enhance its ability to manage tariff risks [5][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company achieved a tire production of 45.89 million units and sales of 44.39 million units in the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 5.77% and 11.23% respectively [5] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 6.115 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.63% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.34% [4] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 514 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.11% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 50.89% [4] Cost and Cash Flow - The gross margin was pressured due to a 14.63% increase in the average price of natural rubber and additional costs from U.S. tariff policies [5] - Operating cash flow decreased significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 41 million yuan, down 95.05% year-on-year [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its new retail channels, partnering with JD.com for a "trade-in" promotion, and has significantly increased its offline service network [7][8] - The number of service stations for passenger vehicles exceeded 1,000, and for commercial vehicles, it surpassed 1,300, with over 340,000 registered users on the app [8] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.877 billion yuan, 2.298 billion yuan, and 2.732 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.3, 10.0, and 8.4 [9][11]

Group 1 - The event titled "Micromeritics BET Analyzer Carbon Black and Tire Industry Application Seminar and LianKe Technology Silica Carbon Black BET Testing Demonstration Center Inauguration" was held on September 10-11, 2025, in collaboration with Micromeritics/ Malvern Panalytical, Shandong LianKe Technology Co., Ltd., and Qingdao FJ Technology Co., Ltd. [2] - The rapid growth of the Chinese automotive industry presents significant opportunities for the tire industry, with a focus on improving tire quality and lifespan becoming a core issue for related companies [2] - Carbon black, as a key raw material, directly influences the lifespan and performance of tires through its specific surface area and particle size distribution [2] Group 2 - Engineers at the seminar shared technical insights on BET and t-plot theory, characterization techniques for carbon black materials, and analysis of low specific surface materials [2] - The seminar included detailed explanations of data analysis and software operation for the BET analyzer, as well as daily maintenance of the Tristar Plus 3030 [2] - LianKe Technology aims to enhance its R&D innovation capabilities and optimize the performance of its silica and carbon black products, leveraging technology and quality to accelerate market expansion and deepen collaboration and innovation among customers [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company's main products are in a state of supply shortage, further solidifying its leading position in the market [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 21.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.02%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.56% to 2.322 billion yuan [2]. - The company has successfully navigated challenges such as high raw material prices and increased competition, leveraging its comprehensive product range and global manufacturing capabilities [2][4]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in Indonesia and Thailand, which is expected to significantly boost overseas revenue [8]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 12.39 million yuan, a significant decrease of 99.13% year-on-year due to increased cash outflows for goods and services [3]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.55 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 2.207 billion yuan [4]. - The average selling price of tire products increased by 4.50% year-on-year, while the average selling price of car tire products rose by 9.52% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is the largest tire manufacturer in China, with its "Chaoyang" brand being one of the most recognized in the country [8]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the global tire industry's increasing trade friction, thanks to its international layout and operational experience [7]. - The report forecasts the company's operating revenue for 2025-2027 to be 44.545 billion, 51.178 billion, and 55.074 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 4.191 billion, 5.449 billion, and 6.164 billion yuan [9][10].

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 10, cup rubber is priced at 52.55 THB/kg, down by 0.40 THB, while latex is at 56.00 THB/kg, unchanged [1] - In Yunnan, the purchase price for rubber water is 14,500 CNY/ton, while in Hainan, the private sector price is 15,900 CNY/ton, down by 400 CNY [1] - In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, the price for Thai standard rubber is 1,860 USD/ton, and Thai mixed rubber is at 15,000 CNY/ton, both unchanged [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.92%, down by 4.05 percentage points month-on-month and down by 12.98 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for Chinese all-steel tire sample enterprises is 60.74%, down by 4.15 percentage points month-on-month and down by 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Shandong, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.85 days, down by 0.29 days month-on-month and up by 10.04 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 38.88 days, down by 0.34 days month-on-month and down by 3.99 days year-on-year [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Côte d'Ivoire's rubber export volume reached 1.05 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, a 14.4% increase from 0.92 million tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - The export volume in August alone increased by 14.8% year-on-year but decreased by 8.9% month-on-month [2] - The overall supply situation is supported by a slight decline in overseas raw material prices, while inventory continues to decrease [2] - As enterprises resume operations, production capacity utilization is expected to improve, although some companies are still facing production constraints [2] Price Outlook - The price range for natural rubber contracts is expected to be between 15,000 and 16,500 CNY, with attention on the main production areas and potential impacts from La Niña on supply [2]