Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, ongoing supply disruptions, and structural demand differentiation in the market [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 54.5, exceeding expectations and indicating the fastest expansion since 2022, which has strengthened the US dollar and put pressure on commodity prices [1] - The imposition of tariffs by the US has increased market uncertainty, leading to a decline in major US stock indices and a cautious trading environment [1] Supply Side Analysis - Global tin supply is heavily concentrated in countries like Myanmar and Indonesia, with production dynamics in these countries directly impacting market supply [1] - Myanmar's production recovery is hindered by slow infrastructure repairs and labor shortages, resulting in lower-than-expected output [1] - Indonesia's refined tin export quotas are subject to domestic policy changes, adding to supply uncertainty [1] - The overall quality of global tin resources is declining, leading to increased mining costs and the exit of smaller mines due to financial and technical constraints [2] Demand Side Analysis - Traditional demand from the electronics sector is weakening due to slower product iterations, particularly in smartphones and tablets, leading to reduced solder demand [1] - Conversely, emerging sectors such as electric vehicle battery manufacturing and photovoltaic component soldering are experiencing rapid growth in tin demand, particularly driven by global clean energy policies [1] Industry Chain Dynamics - Upstream tin mining companies face dual pressures from rising costs and resource depletion, necessitating increased investment in technology [2] - Midstream smelting companies are experiencing fluctuating operating rates due to unstable supply, leading to reduced processing fees and profit margins [2] - Downstream manufacturing companies are compelled to control costs and explore alternative materials, although the short-term irreplaceability of tin in key applications remains significant [2] Short-term Outlook - Tin prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by the recovery progress in major producing countries and the stability of Indonesia's export policies, alongside the unexpected growth in demand from new energy and photovoltaic sectors [3] - If supply disruptions ease and emerging demand continues to grow, tin prices may find support; conversely, if supply increases unexpectedly while demand growth slows, prices could face downward pressure [3]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：000711 证券简称：*ST京蓝 公告编号：2025-064 京蓝科技股份有限公司第十一届 表决结果：6票同意，0票反对，0票弃权，0票回避。 董事会第十七次临时会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 1.京蓝科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第十一届董事会第十七次临时会议于2025年8月13日在公 司会议室以通讯表决的方式召开。 2.本次会议应到董事6位，实到董事6位，以通讯表决方式出席董事6位。 3.本次会议由董事长马黎阳先生主持，公司部分高级管理人员列席。 4.本次会议的召开符合《中华人民共和国公司法》和《京蓝科技股份有限公司章程》的规定。 二、董事会会议审议情况 经与会董事认真审议并以记名投票方式表决，形成以下决议： （一）审议通过《关于向全资子公司提供供应链融资担保的议案》 具体内容详见公司于2025年8月15日在指定信息披露媒体巨潮资讯网、《中国证券报》《上海证券报》 《证券时报》披露的《关于向全资子公司提供供应链融资担保的公告》（公告编号 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with prices fluctuating due to macroeconomic sentiments. The main contract rose by 0.84% to 270,200 yuan/ton, but the overall market remains subdued due to low demand and tight supply conditions [1][2]. - Tin ore supply has not yet recovered, maintaining a tight domestic supply situation. Although there are expectations for supply recovery as Myanmar's tin mines resume production, actual output is delayed until the fourth quarter due to various factors [1][2]. - The downstream consumption is entering a low season, leading to weak demand performance. Orders in the home appliance sector are insufficient, and there is a significant decline in photovoltaic orders compared to the previous month, contributing to the overall weak demand [1][2]. Group 2 - The commentary from Jinrui Futures highlights that the raw material supply at domestic smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi is tight, with low operating rates. The demand side remains sluggish, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, and the overall terminal demand is weak [2]. - The current fundamental changes are limited, with a slight surplus in supply-demand balance observed in August. However, the magnitude is small, and uncertainties in the supply side, along with strong overseas demand, provide some support, suggesting a continuation of the oscillating market pattern in the short term [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach for tin investment, with an expected price range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for shock adjustment [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 267,940 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,230 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars [3] - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai tin is - 440 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 24,776 lots, up 57 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures is 128 lots, down 65 lots; the LME tin total inventory is 1,755 tons, down 120 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 365 tons, down 120 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin warrants are 7,332 tons, down 26 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 267,200 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,190 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan [3] - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 740 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 73 US dollars/ton, down 31 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan [3] - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Modi plans to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit [3] - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, exempting companies like Apple and TSMC that build or promise to build factories in the US [3] - The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on existing tariffs [3] - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might signal a turning point in the US economy [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. In July, the increase in production was due to factors like enterprise复产 and intermediate product clearance, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates [3] - After the PV industry's rush to install ended, some producers' operating rates declined; the electronics industry is in a slow season, and the US plan to impose tariffs on semiconductors adds to the pressure. Downstream enterprises are in a traditional consumption slow season with few orders [3] - The current high prices suppress downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment sentiment. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has slightly increased [3] - Technically, with low open interest, both bulls and bears are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound adjustment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved the registration of three products, allowing them to be used for futures contract delivery starting from the date of the announcement [1] Group 1: Product Registrations - Jiangsu Binxin Steel Group Co., Ltd. has received approval for the registration of its "Xinyong Special Steel" brand wire rod products [1] - Henan Jinli Jinxin Co., Ltd. has been granted registration for its "Jijin" brand zinc ingots, with a registered production capacity of 100,000 tons, adhering to standard pricing [1] - Yunnan Xinyu Nonferrous Electrolytic Co., Ltd. has had its "Yunxiang" brand tin ingots registered, with a registered production capacity of 6,000 tons, also following standard pricing [1]

沪锡横盘整理，主力合约收涨0.19%，报267870元/吨。矿端供应仍旧偏紧，国内即期冶炼原料仍面临压 力，缅甸佤邦政府重开复产会议，通过部分采矿证申请，提升市场对于四季度锡矿复产预期，供应端维 持强现实弱预期格局，短期基本面驱动有限，锡价跟随宏观情绪波动。 据SMM，上周云南与江西两省精炼锡冶炼企业合计开工率升至55.51%，本次开工率回升属阶段性修复 而非趋势反转。部分冶炼厂因停产检修，清理部分冶炼环节中间品，支撑开工率小幅反弹。但考虑到中 间品量级较小且无法保持生产连续性，后续云南地区冶炼企业开工率将小幅下滑无法保持当前开工水 平。江西部分冶炼厂结束检修，逐步恢复生产，但受废锡回收量不足限制，产能恢复缓慢。 近期锡价波动收窄，冶炼厂多持挺价情绪，实际鲜有成交；贸易商方面积极入市报价，多反馈当前锡价 仍处高位，下游补货情绪不佳，多以消耗库存为主，成交多以刚需为主，市场整体交投表现一般。锡市 7月维持供需双弱态势，贸易商出货随盘面价格波动影响其销售水平，下游订单水平下滑幅度较大，且 三季度为下游消费水平淡季，锡相关消费较往年皆有下滑。家电排产订单不足，随着531抢装机的结束 后，光伏订单环比下滑严重，整体需 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a downturn due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with prices falling by 2.03% to 263,520 yuan/ton [1] - Tin ore supply remains tight, with smelter operating rates at low levels, and downstream demand entering a seasonal lull, leading to cautious procurement by enterprises and a sluggish spot market [1] - Domestic social inventory continues to rise, putting pressure on tin prices, while the operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly increased to 53.97% [1] Group 2 - Downstream demand is weak, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, with a decline in orders and production rates in East China and South China [2] - The high tin prices are suppressing downstream purchasing, with companies primarily maintaining just-in-time procurement [2] - Despite the weak demand, there is no significant pressure on the supply side, as tin ore supply shortages persist and smelter production is declining, leading to a potential high-level fluctuation in tin prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]

Summary of Conference Call on Tin Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the tin industry, focusing on supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and the impact of tariffs on the market [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Tin Price Performance - In Q1, tin prices were strong due to supply contraction expectations from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Wa State, but supply pressures eased as production resumed [1][2]. - Domestic tin inventory continues to decrease, and LME (London Metal Exchange) inventories are also declining, indicating a strong near-term market outlook [1][3]. - The current backwardation structure in the market suggests a strong fundamental outlook for near-term contracts, while long-term price expectations remain pessimistic [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The anticipated recovery of production in DRC and Wa State could lead to an increase in supply by approximately 6,000 to 7,000 metric tons for the year [2][15]. - If the U.S. reinstates a 24% tariff, it could negatively impact demand by about 20% [5]. - The photovoltaic (PV) sector's demand for tin is expected to be around 26,000 to 27,000 tons in 2025, but the demand from the electronics sector, particularly for solder, remains robust [6][9]. Tariff Impact - The current tariff situation is complex, with a temporary exemption in place. If tariffs are reinstated, the demand for tin could face significant pressure [5][7]. - Downstream companies are adapting by rerouting trade through Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts, maintaining smooth logistics for electronic exports [7][8]. Sector-Specific Insights - The automotive sector is projected to grow by 20%, while the home appliance sector is expected to grow by 5-6% [9]. - Despite a decline in semiconductor and consumer electronics growth rates, overall solder demand remains positive, with a projected increase of 3,000 to 4,000 tons for the year [9][10]. Price Forecasts - Tin prices are expected to stabilize around 230,000 CNY per ton in the short term, with potential declines to 200,000 CNY if supply increases significantly and demand does not keep pace [4][20]. - The long-term outlook suggests a gradual increase in the price center due to growth in AI and semiconductor applications, with supply growth expected from new projects in the coming years [21][22]. Inventory and Market Sentiment - Downstream producers currently have sufficient inventory levels, having replenished stock after price drops in April [18][19]. - The market sentiment indicates a preference for stable prices, with a psychological support level at 230,000 CNY [18][20]. Future Demand Drivers - The AI industry is expected to drive future demand growth, although quantifying this impact remains challenging [22]. - The overall demand for tin is projected to grow slightly year-on-year, despite fluctuations in specific sectors [13]. Additional Important Insights - The recovery of production in DRC and Wa State is crucial for balancing supply and demand, with potential impacts on global tin prices [14][15]. - The overall supply-demand balance for 2025 is expected to shift towards a tight balance in the first half, with potential oversupply in the second half of the year [31]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the tin market, highlighting the interplay between supply, demand, pricing, and external factors such as tariffs.