Core Viewpoint - Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has secured a significant order from Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) to construct a linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE)/high-density polyethylene (HDPE) production facility in Madhya Pradesh, India, which will become the largest of its kind in the country [1] Group 1: Project Details - The facility will consist of two production lines, each with an annual capacity of 575,000 tons [1] - The project will be executed under a total contracting model, covering the entire process from design, procurement, construction to commissioning [1] - This project is a core component of BPCL's expansion plan for its Bina refinery, aiming to increase refining capacity from 7.8 million tons per year to approximately 11 million tons per year [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The project aligns with the Indian government's strategy to promote domestic manufacturing and achieve self-sufficiency in polymers [1] - L&T's onshore business is a leading engineering contractor in India with extensive experience in executing large-scale projects in the upstream and downstream oil and gas sectors [1] - This collaboration will further strengthen L&T's market position in the petrochemical infrastructure development sector in India [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral strategy, suggesting to wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - side long position on dips [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 30th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2602 in the afternoon session was 3,038 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 118,184 lots, down 23,149 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 243,652 lots, up 6,073 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton, Shandong 2,870 - 3,190 yuan/ton, East China 3,000 - 3,120 yuan/ton, and South China 2,900 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot prices in North China and South China increased, while those in other regions remained stable [1][2] - Although the overall rigid demand for asphalt is poor, the supply side is supported by tight local asphalt spot circulation. The pricing of the futures market has shifted to the southern region. With the reduction of supply from some refineries, market sentiment has improved compared to last week, showing a rebound expectation. However, the potential risk of supply interruption of Venezuelan crude oil is an upward risk. The market is intertwined with long and short factors, and a bottom - up rebound needs a clearer signal [1] Group 3: Chart Information Summary - The report includes charts on the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the month - to - month spreads of near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, the weekly asphalt production in China and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), and the consumption and inventory of asphalt [3]

Group 1 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's petrochemical industry has entered a low growth phase after a concentrated release of basic product capacity, with a focus on policy support for sustainable development by 2026 [1] - The central economic work conference emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote domestic demand and build a large domestic market [1] - Multiple institutions, including Guosen Securities and Everbright Securities, predict that the petrochemical industry will see a cyclical turning point in 2026, with gradual recovery in industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The domestic policy continues to guide structural optimization in the industry, including strict control of new refining capacity and promoting the elimination of outdated refining capacity [1] - On the international front, the Federal Reserve is expected to restart its interest rate cut cycle in 2025, while OPEC+ continues to adjust its production plans, reflecting a cautious attitude towards short-term energy demand [1] - The petrochemical sector is expected to benefit from a stable oil price environment in 2026, with core domestic petrochemical companies likely to see improved profit elasticity [2] Group 3 - China National Petroleum Corporation is expected to benefit from natural gas market reforms, leading to stable performance improvements [2] - Sinopec is focusing on domestic refining and chemical sectors, enhancing cost control and market share [2] - CNOOC is advancing its reserve and production increase while reducing costs and improving efficiency [2] Group 4 - The chemical industry is anticipated to experience profit restructuring opportunities in 2026, with specific sectors like fluorochemicals and potash fertilizers expected to see improved market conditions [2] - The implementation of the "one certificate, one product" policy in the pesticide sector is expected to reshape market competition [2] - Breakthroughs in catalyst technology and biobased chemical production are crucial for enhancing competitiveness in high-end materials [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious bearish outlook on crude oil, natural gas [2][7] - Short - term bearish rebound expected in LPG, L, PP, PVC, asphalt, glass, soda ash [2][7] - Suggests callback buying opportunities for PTA, methanol, urea [31][37][41] - Recommends rebound short - selling for MEG [34] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices will oscillate in a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus [2] - LPG prices will strengthen in the short - term due to cost - side support but trend downwards in the long - term [2] - PTA offers callback buying opportunities as its short - term supply - demand balance is tight [31] - MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, and investors should look for rebound short - selling opportunities [34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.22%, Brent down 0.26%, and SC up 0.69% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in South America may boost prices in the short - term, but supply surplus in the off - season exerts downward pressure [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers, and demand in Japan increased in November. US inventories rose in the week ending December 19 [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the SC range of [430 - 440] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's CP contract price increase boosts prices in the short - term, and supply and demand show certain resilience [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: It follows market sentiment in the short - term, with weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the L range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 6321 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Cost strengthens in January, and the industry chain faces high inventory - reduction pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the PP range of [6250 - 6400] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4810 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [28] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthens, but high inventory restricts the rebound space [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profit on long positions, wait for inventory reduction for long - term long positions, and conduct hedging for industrial customers. Focus on the V range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5280 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for TA05 in the range of [5080 - 5190] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 3686 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production capacity increases, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is expected to accumulate [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and look for rebound short - selling opportunities for EG05 in the range of [3780 - 3880] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure exists, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for MA05 in the range of [2210 - 2250] [40] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets remains open [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for UR05 in the range of [1725 - 1755] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 29, the NG main contract closed at 4.687 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 7.35% [46] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, and supply is relatively abundant [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [3.727 - 4.160] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the BU main contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 1.00% [49] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and supply and demand are relatively loose [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Focus on the BU range of [3000 - 3100] [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.4% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations support prices, and supply and demand are weak [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long in the short - term and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [55] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 closed at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.7% [57] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following glass prices, with stable supply and weak demand [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the SA range of [1200 - 1240] [59]

Report Summary 1. New Policies and Their Impacts - The 2026 national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement is released, with 62.5 billion yuan in initial funds. The subsidy scope for home appliances is narrowed to 6 categories, and new smart products are added while home decoration and electric bicycles are removed. New car purchase subsidies remain at previous limits with 12% or 10% of the car price [2]. - Starting from 2026, the VAT rate for selling homes bought less than 2 years ago is reduced from 5% to 3%, and those bought 2 years or more are tax - free. This policy is expected to boost second - hand housing transactions but may increase supply and put pressure on housing prices [2]. 2. Market Performance A - share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed flat, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 21423.26 billion yuan, an increase of 29.88 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 1.01% [3]. - The total A - share market capitalization is 108.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.96 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. The cumulative trading volume this year is 418.14 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 17278.49 billion yuan [17]. Global Markets - European stocks and Hong Kong stocks led the gains. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.74%, the FTSE MIB in Italy rose 1.14%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.86%. US, Japanese, South Korean, and Saudi Arabian stock indices led the decline, with the Saudi All - Share Index falling 1.03% [3]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield is 1.8537%, a change of - 0.8 BP. The average daily prices of R001 and R007 in the inter - bank market are 1.3782% and 2.062% respectively [3]. - The US dollar index closed at 98.2181, up 0.23%. The US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9923, with the offshore RMB appreciating 57 basis points [3][4]. 3. Sector Performance - The top - performing sectors are petrochemicals, automobiles, non - ferrous metals, and machinery, with gains of 2.63%, 1.35%, 1.31%, and 1.29% respectively. The under - performing sectors are commerce and retail, real estate, public utilities, and social services, with losses of 1.56%, 1.22%, 1.14%, and 1.13% respectively [3]. - The top three sectors in terms of daily net inflow of funds are household appliances, automobiles, and machinery. The top three sectors with net inflow of funds at the end of the day are national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and non - banking finance [25]. - The top - performing themes are Yushu Robotics, reducers, and humanoid robots [25].

摘要：【图】2025年8月广东省石脑油产量数据 2025年8月石脑油产量统计： 石脑油产量：104.4 万吨 同比增长：-2.8% 增速较上一年同期变化：高1.5个百分点 据统计，2025年8月广东省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量与上年同期相比下降了2.8%，达104.4万吨，增 速较上一年同期高1.5个百分点，增速较同期全国低0.6个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业石脑油产 量661.5万吨的比重为15.8%。 详见下图： 2025年1-8月石脑油产量统计： 石脑油产量：817.8 万吨 同比增长：4.9% 增速较上一年同期变化：高5.4个百分点 据统计，2025年1－8月，广东省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量与上年同期相比增长了4.9%，达817.8万 吨，增速较上一年同期高5.4个百分点，增速较同期全国高5.4个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业石 脑油产量5283.7万吨的比重为15.5%。详见下图： 图2：广东省石脑油产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：广东省石脑油产量分月（当月值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2][10] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3][11] - Report Date: December 31, 2025 [3][11] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content; it mainly provides data on asphalt - related indicators. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The Shandong basis (+80) (non - Jingbo) was - 68 on December 30, with no daily change and a weekly change of - 12; the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was - 118, with no daily change and a weekly change of - 2; the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was - 138, with a daily change of 40 and a weekly change of 28 [4][12]. - **Month - to - month spreads**: The 01 - 03 spread was - 43 on December 30, with a daily change of - 8 and a weekly change of - 9; the 02 - 03 spread was - 7, with a daily change of - 3 and a weekly change of 3; the 03 - 06 spread was - 24, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4 [4][12]. 3.2 BU Main Contract (02) - **Price**: It was 3038 on December 30, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 42 [4][12]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume on December 30 was 465,494, with a daily increase of 79,321 and a weekly increase of 170,851 [4][12]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest on December 30 was 440,255, with a daily decrease of 2,448 and a weekly decrease of 31,865 [4][12]. - **Combination**: It was 8,260 on December 30, with a daily and weekly increase of 4,080 [4][12]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Brent Crude Oil**: It was 61.9 on December 30, with a daily increase of 1.3 and a weekly decrease of 0.4 [4][12]. - **Jingbo**: The price was 2,980 on December 30, with a daily and weekly increase of 40 [4][12]. - **Shandong (non - Jingbo)**: The price was 2,890 on December 30, with a daily and weekly increase of 30 [4][12]. - **Zhenjiang Warehouse**: The price was 2,920 on December 30, with a daily and weekly increase of 30 [4][12]. - **Foshan Warehouse**: The price was 2,900 on December 30, with a daily increase of 70 and a weekly increase of 100 [4][12]. 3.4 Profit - **Asphalt - Marrow Profit**: It was 385 on December 30, with a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly increase of 45 [4][12].

Market Situation - A-shares opened lower on Tuesday but rallied in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.0% at 3965.12 points. The Shenzhen Component rose by 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% [1] - Among individual stocks, 1840 rose (66 hitting the daily limit), while 3481 fell (19 hitting the lower limit). Notable gainers included Shuangxin Environmental Protection (+187.30%), N Qiangyi (+165.61%), and Yufan Technology (+124.36%). Major losers were *ST Dongtong (-59.27%), Guangdao Tui (-29.49%), and *ST Tianlong (-19.96%) [1] - The energy sector performed well, with oil and gas, automotive parts, and petrochemicals rising by 3.07%, 2.44%, and 1.96% respectively. Conversely, high-dividend sectors saw a collective decline, with power generation equipment, retail, and education down by 2.02%, 1.85%, and 1.75% respectively [1] Futures Market - The four major index futures contracts mostly rose, with IF2603 and IC2603 increasing by 0.36% and 0.59% respectively, while IH2603 fell by 0.03% and IM2603 rose by 0.24%. The basis for these contracts showed some recovery [2] News - The 2026 national subsidy plan was officially released, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announcing a first batch of 625 billion yuan to support the replacement of old consumer goods. New products eligible for subsidies include smart glasses and smart home devices, while categories like home decoration and electric bicycles were removed [3] - For new car purchases, subsidies will be 12% or 10% of the car price, with a cap of 20,000 yuan or 15,000 yuan continuing from 2025 standards. The scope of household appliance subsidies has been narrowed to six categories, with the subsidy rate for first-level energy-efficient appliances reduced from 20% to 15% and the maximum subsidy per appliance decreased from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan [3] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the need for interest rate cuts, although there were significant disagreements among officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate adjustments [3] Capital Market - On December 30, the A-share market maintained stable trading volume with a total turnover of 2.14 trillion yuan. Northbound capital transactions amounted to 2380.18 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a 3125 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with 593 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2532 billion yuan for the day [4] Operational Suggestions - With short-term negative factors dissipating, indices have rebounded consecutively, and broad-based ETFs have shown significant inflows. The current volatility is on the rise, and the renminbi exchange rate has notably increased, suggesting core assets may trend upward. However, there may be short-term fluctuations due to potential capital withdrawals before the holiday, recommending the continued holding of bull spread combinations and a small amount of selling near-month out-of-the-money call options for hedging [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 2026 national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement is released, with changes in subsidy targets and amounts [2][13]. - Multiple factors are driving copper prices to new highs, and the price is expected to continue rising in 2026 [5]. - The Fed agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials have significant differences. Further rate cuts may be appropriate if inflation declines as expected [3][15]. - The real - estate market has new policies, such as a reduction in the VAT rate for short - term housing sales, which will impact the market [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP grew at a 4.8% year - on - year rate, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI business activity in November 2025 was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The 2026 national subsidy plan for equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement is announced, including subsidy details for new cars and home appliances [2][13][14]. - The list of state - owned trading enterprises for tungsten, antimony, and silver exports from 2026 - 2027 is released [2]. - On December 30, 2025, there were 31 positive - basis and 37 negative - basis domestic commodity varieties [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On December 30, 2025, COMEX gold futures rose 0.20% to $4352.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.88% to $76.02 per ounce [4]. - Indonesia plans to cut nickel production in 2026 to balance supply and demand [5]. - Multiple factors are driving copper prices to new highs, and it's expected to continue rising in 2026 [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - December 2025, the price of coke (quasi - first - class metallurgical coke) decreased 2.79% month - on - month, hitting a new low since late October [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On December 30, 2025, WTI crude oil futures fell 0.22% to $57.95 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 0.24% to $61.34 per barrel [9]. - OPEC+ is expected to maintain the suspension of production increases [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Since 2025, domestic pig prices have declined, and it's expected to recover in the second half of 2026 [10]. - In 2025, the national grain purchase volume reached 830 billion jin, remaining stable for three years [10]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 30, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 312.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - The 2026 national subsidy plan for consumer goods replacement is released [2][13]. - The VAT rate for short - term housing sales is reduced from 5% to 3% starting in 2026 [14]. - The Fed agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials have differences [3][15]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - The sentiment of ultra - long bonds has recovered slightly, while other maturities are still weak. Bond futures show differentiation [20]. - Currency market interest rates mostly rose, with some short - term rates hitting new highs or lows [22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9901 on December 30, 2025, up 197 points [25]. - The US dollar index rose 0.22% to 98.22 in New York trading [25]. 3.3.5 Research Reports - Huatai Fixed - income believes that the bond market will remain volatile and slightly weak in Q1 2026 [26]. - CICC Fixed - income believes that the overall credit risk of central and state - owned real - estate enterprises is controllable in 2026 [26]. - CITIC Securities expects a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [27]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market had a narrow - range adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.86% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.74% [30]. - In 2025, the Hong Kong IPO scale ranked first globally. It's predicted that about 160 new stocks will be listed in 2026 [31].

| 安期货 | | --- | | IGAN FUTURES | 燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/31 新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 | 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSFO | 380基差 | 高硫内外价差 | 低硫内外价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/24 | 343.65 | 417.55 | -1.60 | 5.3 | 9.8 | | 2025/12/25 | - | - | - | - | - | | 2025/12/26 | 343.32 | 417.34 | -1.60 | - | - | | 2025/12/29 | 339.01 | 412.83 | -1.00 | 7.7 | 11.5 | | 2025/12/30 | 340.87 | 413.16 | -1.45 | 8.0 | 9.0 | | 变化 | 1.86 | 0.33 | -0.45 | 0.3 | -2.5 | | 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...