Report Title - "Domestic 'Anti-Involution' Drives Market Sentiment Upward - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.21" [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views Copper - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [3]. - Fundamental: Although LME copper inventories have increased slightly, they remain at historical lows. Demand has weakened significantly as prices rebounded, showing a phased supply - demand weakness due to the traditional off - season [3]. - Overall: The impact of tariff shocks on copper prices is gradually digested. After prices stabilize, a bullish approach is recommended [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [5]. - Fundamental: With the release of supply increments and the suppression of the consumption off - season, the expectation of inventory accumulation is still strong [5]. - Overall: The improvement of domestic macro expectations significantly boosts industrial products. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [5]. Alumina - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [7]. - Fundamental: In the week of July 17, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 500,000 tons/year to 89.07 million tons/year, and the weekly inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants increased by about 25,800 tons, putting some pressure on spot prices [7]. - Overall: The expectation of supply - side reform and the decline of warehouse receipts to a low level. Alumina breaks through the low - level oscillation range upwards, and a bullish approach is recommended [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Price Changes**: Provided the weekly cumulative price change statistics of various metals from July 14 - 18 [14]. - **Weekly News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of ten key industries, including non-ferrous metals. In the first half of the year, the non-ferrous metal industry had positive growth in production, revenue, and profit, and its green - low - carbon level improved significantly. Chile will discuss the impact of US copper tariffs. LME's 8 Hong Kong approved warehousing facilities started operation. Kazakhstan plans to restrict the export of certain key products and cancel the export tariff on gallium [15]. 2. Macro Analysis - **Domestic**: In Q2 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year. From January to June, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Exports supported industrial production, but real estate investment declined further [19]. - **Overseas**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. After the CPI release, the US dollar index and Treasury yields rose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly [22]. 3. Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC remained weak [28]. - **Futures Market**: COMEX's net long positions increased [31]. - **Overseas Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [35]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories decreased by 4,300 tons to 143,300 tons compared to Monday, and were 231,800 tons lower than the same period last year [41]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot premium widened [44]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [48]. - **Inventory**: The report provided data on electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories, as well as LME and SHFE aluminum inventories [50]. - **Downstream开工**: As of July 17, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8%. Different sectors had different trends, and SMM expected the weekly operating rate to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week [52]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 17, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 20,000 yuan/ton. The industry faced cost and demand challenges, and prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report analyzed the relationship between the price of electrolytic aluminum and the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and thermal coal [60]. 5. Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Spot prices remained stable [63]. - **Futures Market**: Inventory futures continued to decline [65]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply changed little, with some areas having tight supply due to maintenance. Demand increased as some electrolytic aluminum enterprises resumed production or transferred capacity [70]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of July 17, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,995.43 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 193.15 yuan/ton [71].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation, the non-US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand." The spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, the price of the main aluminum contract is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, ranging between 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The price of the main alumina contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton in the coming week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging between 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions established at previous high levels [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong, with the main contract price ranging between 65,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. However, there is still a downward risk in the medium term [16]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.82% to 78,660 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose by 70 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.3005 million tons, an increase of 18.74% month-on-month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.63% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum rose by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% month-on-month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% month-on-month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 35 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.615 million tons, an increase of 1.49% month-on-month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 0.255 million tons, a decrease of 2.30% month-on-month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.95% to 22,320 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, an increase of 6.50% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.0361 million tons, an increase of 34.97% month-on-month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.87% to 121,500 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2509 - 2510 contracts increased by 30 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% month-on-month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% month-on-month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1.37% to 265,500 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts increased by 120 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% month-on-month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% month-on-month [11]. Stainless Steel - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 12,800 yuan/ton. The basis between futures and spot increased by 28.95% to 245 yuan/ton [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2509 - 2510 contracts remained unchanged at -40 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.1095 million tons, a decrease of 12.48% month-on-month [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.62% to 66,650 yuan/ton. The basis (based on SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate) decreased by 3.86% to -3,230 yuan/ton [16]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 180 yuan/ton to -80 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% month-on-month; the demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% month-on-month [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend due to political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and ongoing global geo - economic risks [3]. - Copper prices may continue to be strong in the coming week, influenced by positive US retail data, tariff expectations, and favorable tariff policies between the US, Indonesia, and Japan [14]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, supported by positive macro factors and low inventories [30]. - Alumina is expected to show a strong trend in the short term, driven by a significant decline in warrants and macro policies [31]. - Zinc prices will be mainly influenced by macro data and market sentiment in the short term, with supply - side disruptions also being a point of concern [60]. - The nickel industry chain may face some disturbances. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - Tin prices will likely continue to fluctuate, with the view that the upward pressure is greater than the downward support in the short term [91]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate will be strong in the market, and the operating rate is expected to increase in the long term [106]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while the polysilicon market needs to be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fundamentals are dominated by Fed policy expectations. Political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and global geo - economic risks support the upward trend of gold prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, but various price - related data such as SHFE and SGX silver futures and spot price differences are presented [6]. Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17 but were boosted by positive US retail data and tariff expectations. They are expected to be slightly stronger in the coming week [14]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory changes [15][19][23]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macro data is positive, and low inventories support prices. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [30]. - **Alumina**: The current production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is tight. Warrants have decreased significantly, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is supported by high scrap - aluminum prices, but demand is weak in the off - season [31]. Zinc - **Price and Market**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term prices are mainly affected by macro data and market sentiment [60]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on zinc futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [61][66][69]. Nickel - **Industry Chain Situation**: The nickel industry chain is affected by factors such as export restrictions, tariffs, and rainfall in the Philippines. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories [74][76]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. In the short term, the upward pressure is greater than the downward support due to the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand [91]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [92][96][99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: In the short term, the market is strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long term, the operating rate is expected to increase as prices rise [106]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on lithium carbonate futures prices, spreads, and inventory changes [107][113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: With positive macro - sentiment, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [115]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations have led to market speculation. Attention should be paid to the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on industrial silicon spot and futures prices, as well as prices of related products in the silicon industry chain [116][119].

Group 1: Market Overview - The infrastructure concept has strengthened significantly, with sectors such as engineering machinery, civil explosives, and cement leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72%, marking a four-day winning streak and reaching a new high for the year; the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.87% [2] - The total market turnover was approximately 1.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 133.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,000 stocks rising [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - Northern Rare Earth (600111) reached a peak price of 35.75 yuan per share, setting a historical high, and closed at 35.05 yuan with a trading volume of 146.64 billion yuan, ranking first in A-share trading volume [4][7] - Other notable stocks with trading volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan include Dongfang Caifu, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Xinyi Sheng [4] - Several high-priced stocks experienced adjustments, with Forest Packaging hitting the daily limit down, Sifang Jingchuang down nearly 8%, and Zhongdian Port down over 7% [5] Group 3: Northern Rare Earth Insights - Northern Rare Earth's stock price surged due to multiple favorable news factors, including a tight supply of mainstream rare earths and stable domestic demand, with international orders recovering [9] - The company is accelerating capacity construction and technological upgrades, including a 5,000-ton/year rare earth permanent magnet industrialization project and a 3,000-ton/year high-performance NdFeB magnetic material project [9][10] - Future strategies include mergers and acquisitions to enhance the supply chain, improve production capacity and technology levels, and strengthen resource security for rare earth metals [10] Group 4: Aluminum Sector Performance - The aluminum sector saw significant gains, with companies like Tianshan Aluminum, Jiaozuo Wanfang, and Shenhuo Co. leading the rise [11][12] - The price of alumina futures increased by 8.39% by the end of the trading day [12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of growth stabilization measures for the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on high-quality development and resource efficiency [14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation, the non-US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand"; the negotiation process of tariffs will also affect copper prices, with the main contract price expected to range between 77,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short - term, the main contract price of alumina is expected to fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,400, and it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium - term; the short - term price of aluminum is expected to face pressure at high levels, with the main contract price ranging between 20,200 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract price ranging between 19,400 - 20,200 [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 22,000 - 23,500 [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 118,000 - 126,000 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, but there may be a significant increase in tin prices driven by market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions from previous highs [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 12,500 - 13,000 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong, with the main contract price ranging between 65,000 - 72,000; there is a risk of a decline in the medium - term [16]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,660 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 144 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,700 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,248 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,391 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121,500 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,446 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 265,500 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 15,544.01 yuan/ton [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 66,650 yuan/ton, up 2.62% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is not provided [16]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month; imports were 0.3005 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.615 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.255 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. - **Zinc**: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month; imports were 0.0361 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [9]. - **Tin**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 0.1095 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; demand was 93,815 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month [16]. Market Analysis - **Copper**: Macro factors such as US tariffs and inflation, as well as the supply - demand relationship and inventory levels in the copper market, will affect copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Macro factors, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels in the aluminum market, as well as the impact of Guinea's policies on the bauxite supply, will affect aluminum prices [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum alloy market, especially the weak demand in the terminal automotive industry, will affect aluminum alloy prices [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand relationship in the zinc market, especially the high smelting plant operating rate and the differentiated demand in the primary processing industry, will affect zinc prices [7]. - **Nickel**: Macro factors such as US inflation and tariffs, as well as the supply - demand relationship and inventory levels in the nickel market, will affect nickel prices [9]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand relationship in the tin market, especially the supply recovery of tin ore in Myanmar and the weakening demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries, will affect tin prices [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macro factors, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels in the stainless steel market, as well as the price fluctuations of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferronickel, will affect stainless steel prices [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market, especially the continuous increase in production and the limited increase in demand, as well as the impact of news and capital sentiment, will affect lithium carbonate prices [16].

铝周报 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 7 月 21 日 消息主导 铝价偏强运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 一、交易数据 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 上周美国CPI数据略有上行，但核心通胀水平依然温 和，市场对美联储降息预期谨慎，但仍保留了两次降 息预期次数。其后美国首申及零售数据保持韧性，令 美指周内连续反弹。国内工信部周末称对有色、钢铁 等重要十大行业优化产业结构，淘汰落后产能。基本 面，供应端贵州电解铝产能继续复产， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke**: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - **Corn**: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - **Sugar**: Trades in a range [2][5]. - **Cotton**: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - **Log**: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy focus in the second half of this year is clear, aiming to repair the supply - demand mismatch pressure through "anti - involution" and "anti - deflation", improve the sluggish nominal growth rate, and address industrial homogenization competition and local protection issues for high - quality development. In the early stage of policy implementation, expectations outweigh reality, and the market may follow a similar logic to stock market valuation expansion. Later, expectations will give way to reality, and price performance will fluctuate according to actual situations [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities of gold and silver are both 1 [11][17][21] - **Copper**: Market sentiment is positive, supporting copper prices. The trend intensity is 0 [11][22][24] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [11][25][27] - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are gradually emerging, and lead prices are strengthening. The trend intensity is 1 [11][28][29] - **Tin**: Tin prices are weakening. The trend intensity is - 1 [11][32][35] - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina has capital inflows, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy are 0, 1, and 0 respectively [11][36][38] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Macro - sentiment boosts nickel expectations, but reality limits its upward space. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and macro - factors. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [11][39][43] Energy - related - **Carbonate Lithium**: Attention should be paid to lithium mining industry policies, and carbonate lithium is expected to run strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [11][44][46] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is de - stocking in supply and demand, and the market is resistant to decline. Polysilicon has an upward - driving force due to sentiment fermentation. The trend intensities of industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0 and 1 respectively [11][47][50] - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, iron ore is in a strong - oscillating state. The trend intensity is 1 [11][51][52] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains high, and both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [11][56][59] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend intensities of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are both 0 [11][60][62] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed a round of price increases and is oscillating strongly. Coking coal is also oscillating strongly. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are 0 and 1 respectively [11][64][67] - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and steam coal is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend intensity is 0 [11][69][72] Others - **Log**: Log is in a wide - range oscillation [11][73]

Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide investment ratings for the industries discussed. Core Insights - The copper market shows a mixed outlook with a slight increase in LME copper prices by 1.36% to $9,794.50 per ton, while domestic prices slightly decreased. The supply side indicates a decrease in copper inventory, but downstream demand remains cautious due to price fluctuations [2][15]. - The aluminum market is experiencing seasonal weakness, with LME aluminum prices up by 1.38% to $2,638.00 per ton, but overall demand remains low, and inventory levels are fluctuating [3][16]. - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold prices slightly increasing by 0.01% to $3,355.50 per ounce, reflecting a growing short-term safe-haven appeal [4][17]. - The rare earth sector is seeing price recovery due to tightening supply expectations and increasing demand, particularly with significant investments from companies like MP Materials [5][39]. - The antimony market is stabilizing, with prices holding steady as domestic smelting operations face reductions, and new regulations may boost demand [5][40]. - The molybdenum market is showing upward momentum with low inventory levels and increasing demand from the steel sector, indicating a positive outlook for prices [6][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices increased slightly, but downstream demand is cautious due to price volatility. The operating rate for copper rod enterprises rose to 77.22% [2][15]. - Aluminum prices increased, but the overall demand remains weak, with a notable decrease in operating rates in the aluminum processing industry [3][16]. - Gold prices are influenced by international trade tensions, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][17]. 2. Rare Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - The rare earth market is experiencing upward price trends due to supply tightening and increasing demand, with significant investments from major companies [5][39]. - Antimony prices are stabilizing, with expectations of recovery in exports and new regulations potentially boosting demand [5][40]. - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise due to low inventory levels and increasing demand from the steel industry [6][41]. 3. Small Metals and Rare Earth Fundamentals Update - The rare earth sector is projected to benefit from supply constraints and increasing demand, with a favorable regulatory environment [5][39]. - The antimony market is stabilizing, with potential for price recovery due to reduced domestic production and regulatory changes [5][40]. - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise as demand from the steel sector increases and inventory levels remain low [6][41].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The gold futures market shows a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The gold price remains in a high - level oscillation [3]. - Trump's tariff on copper has both explicit and implicit purposes. In the short term, copper prices may continue to oscillate [14]. - Aluminum prices are affected by macro factors. They may adjust in the short term and are expected to be weak in the long term. Alumina may maintain a high - level oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy has limited upward space [33][34]. - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - Nickel prices may be boosted by factors such as nickel - iron price adjustments and potential formula revisions in Indonesia. Stainless steel and nickel salt have certain trends [75]. - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak [107]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space [116]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold - The fundamentals of SHFE gold futures present a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The market is short - term focused on US consumer confidence and inflation expectation data [3]. - Various data charts show the trends of SHFE and COMEX gold prices, gold - dollar index, gold - US Treasury real interest rate, etc. [4][8] Copper - Trump's tariff on copper has explicit and implicit purposes. The short - term copper price may oscillate. The closing price last week can be used as a short - term reference [14]. - The latest prices of SHFE copper futures show different changes. The spot prices of different copper sources also have various fluctuations, and the import profit and loss, processing fees, etc. are also presented [15][22][26] Aluminum - Aluminum supply is approaching the industry limit, demand is in the off - season, and macro - level tariff policies and Fed policy uncertainties affect prices. In the short term, it may adjust, and in the long term, it is expected to be weak [33]. - Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and it may maintain a high - level oscillation. Casting aluminum alloy has cost support but weak demand [34]. - The latest prices of SHFE aluminum futures and related spreads are provided, along with spot prices and basis data [35][42][45] Zinc - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. The market is short - term focused on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - The latest prices of SHFE zinc futures and LME zinc, along with spot prices and spreads, are presented [63][68] Nickel - The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in July decreased slightly. Nickel - iron prices rose slightly, and factors such as Indonesian policy adjustments may boost nickel prices [75]. - The latest prices of SHFE nickel futures and related data on stainless steel futures are provided, along with information on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profits [76][82][86] Tin - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The latest prices of SHFE tin futures and spot prices are presented, along with inventory data [93][97][100] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [107]. - The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices of various lithium products are provided, along with inventory data [108][111][114] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt changes [116]. - The latest spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and futures prices are provided, along with data on related products in the silicon industry chain [117][120][128]