1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. The short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are unlikely to show a trend reversal and are likely to remain range - bound and weak. Attention should be paid to high - frequency indicators such as construction site resumption rates and daily consumption of cement and building materials [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3088 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.422%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,646 tons, a net increase of 7,318 tons. The main contract position was 1.7987 million lots, a decrease of 38,543 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Shanghai it was 3,190 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.654%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 472,215 tons, unchanged, and the main contract position was 1.3988 million lots, a decrease of 31,275 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai it was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Strategy View**: The overall price of finished steel continued to be volatile. Macro - policies will support infrastructure and manufacturing investment and underpin steel demand in the medium term. Real - estate policies focus on stabilizing the market and defusing risks, with limited incremental impact on steel demand. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined this week, and inventory continued to accumulate. For rebar, supply and demand both increased, but the inventory accumulation rate was too fast. Before peak - season demand is confirmed, prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 772.00 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.71% (+13.00), with a position change of - 10,515 lots to 488,300 lots. The weighted position was 888,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 38.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.80% [4]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas ore shipments fluctuated slightly at a high level. Australian shipments declined, while Brazilian shipments increased. Near - term arrivals continued to fall. The latest daily hot - metal output decreased by 56,900 tons to 2.2759 million tons. Steel - mill profitability declined. Port inventory was basically unchanged, and steel - mill inventory continued to decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On March 6, the main manganese - silicon contract (SM605) closed up 0.62% at 6,130 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) closed up 0.69% at 5,868 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 332 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon price rebounded and remained volatile at a high level, and the ferrosilicon price continued to rebound [7]. - **Strategy View**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has shifted the overall sentiment of commodities towards the bullish side. In the short term, short - selling may not be appropriate. Manganese silicon has an unfavorable supply - demand pattern, while ferrosilicon has a good fundamental situation. Future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black - metal sector, cost increases from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contractions for ferrosilicon [8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On March 6, the main coking - coal contract (JM2605) closed up 1.58% at 1,123.0 yuan/ton. The main coke contract (J2605) closed up 1.13% at 1,695.5 yuan/ton. The coking - coal price rebounded slightly in March, and the coke price also rebounded slightly [11][12][13]. - **Strategy View**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation and the "Two Sessions" had a slightly positive impact on coking coal, driving up prices. However, downstream de - stocking and increased coal production in March will restrict short - term demand. Although the market sentiment has changed, there is not enough support for a sharp price rebound in the short term. In the long term, the coking - coal price is expected to rise from June to October [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The main industrial - silicon futures contract (SI2605) closed at 8,690 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.46% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 7,727 lots to 385,766 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 410 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial - silicon price fluctuated. Supply is expected to increase in March, and demand from the polysilicon and organic - silicon sectors is also likely to rise. The market may see a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but inventory reduction will be difficult. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to unexpected disturbances [18]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The main polysilicon futures contract (PS2605) closed at 41,115 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.76% (-1,165). The weighted contract position decreased by 757 lots to 57,752 lots [19]. - **Strategy View**: Supply and demand in the polysilicon market are expected to increase in March, but inventory reduction may be limited. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is also expected to continue to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to new order transactions [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: The main glass contract closed at 1,055 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.64% (+17). The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises on March 5 was 79.637 million boxes, up 3.629 million boxes (4.77%) [21]. - **Strategy View**: Market demand has slightly improved, and glass manufacturers have raised prices. However, distributors' willingness to purchase is not strong. The government's real - estate policy continues to be "supportive but not over - stimulating", and there is potential for incremental policies. The reference range for the main contract is 1,070 - 1,130 yuan/ton [22]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The main soda - ash contract closed at 1,225 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.83% (+22). The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises on March 5 was 1.9472 million tons, up 52,800 tons (4.77%) [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the actual procurement demand of downstream industries has not been effectively released. The cost of soda ash has increased due to the rise in domestic oil prices. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector in March. The reference range for the main contract is 1,230 - 1,315 yuan/ton [24].

2026年03月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：运输成本抬升，矿价小幅反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：多空双方博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空双方博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：一轮提降落地，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：能源属性持续发酵，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋宽，煤价回调 | 9 | | 原木：需求季节性回升，价差正套运行 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 9 日 （2）2026 年政府工作报告重在稳定预期，着力调结构、防风险、促改革。一方面，GDP 增速从"5%左 右"下调至"4.5%-5.0%"，经济增长目标更加务实；另一方面，提高政策性金融工具规模。 （3）247 家钢铁企业日均铁水产量为 227.59 万吨，环比下降 5.69 万吨。（我的钢铁） 铁矿石：运输成本抬升，矿价小幅反弹 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers trend strength ratings for individual commodities, which are classified into five levels: weak,偏弱, neutral,偏强, and strong, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trend strengths of various commodities, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost changes. The overall market is influenced by the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has led to supply disruptions, cost increases, and price fluctuations in many commodities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the price is affected by factors such as the Middle East situation and changes in the US economy. Trend strength: -1 [7][8] - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction. Trend strength: -1 [8] - **Platinum**: Follows the fluctuations of gold and silver. Trend strength: 0 [27][29] - **Palladium**: High - frequency data is pessimistic, indicating price weakness. Trend strength: -1 [28][29] Base Metals - **Copper**: The real - world situation is weak, and prices are under pressure. Trend strength: 0 [11] - **Zinc**: Ranges in a sideways pattern. Trend strength: 0 [14] - **Lead**: The inclusion of recycled lead in delivery puts pressure on prices. Trend strength: 0 [17] - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment. Trend strength: 0 [20] - **Aluminum**: Overseas supply is substantially tight. Trend strength: 1 [24] - **Alumina**: The market sentiment on the futures board has a significant impact. Trend strength: 0 [24] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Trend strength: 1 [24] - **Nickel**: Tight supply at the ore end supports the current situation, while inventory accumulation in smelting limits price elasticity. Trend strength: 0 [33] - **Stainless Steel**: Subject to macro - risk preference disturbances, the actual cost center has shifted upward. Trend strength: 0 [33] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The Middle East conflict has led to supply concerns, affecting the prices of related products such as PX, PTA, and MEG, which are expected to show a strong upward trend. Trend strength: 2 [67][74] - **Rubber**: Shows a moderately strong sideways movement. Trend strength: 1 [77] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by cost increases, the price center has shifted upward. Trend strength: 1 [82] - **LLDPE**: The expected contraction of cracking supply continues, and short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical factors. Trend strength: 2 [86] - **PP**: Supply of multiple raw materials is restricted, and upstream production has contracted. Trend strength: 2 [86] - **Caustic Soda**: Shows a moderately strong sideways movement, but attention should be paid to the premium on the futures board. Trend strength: 1 [89] - **Paper Pulp**: Shows a moderately strong sideways movement. Trend strength: 1 [93] - **Glass**: The price of raw sheets is stable. Trend strength: 1 [100] - **Methanol**: Runs strongly. Trend strength: 1 [103] - **Urea**: Shows support during sideways movement. Trend strength: 0 [109] - **Styrene**: Runs strongly. Trend strength: 2 [113] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. Trend strength: 1 [115] - **LPG**: Subject to strong short - term geopolitical disturbances. Trend strength: 2 [120] - **Propylene**: Subject to geopolitical disturbances at the cost end, the fundamentals remain tight. Trend strength: 2 [120] - **PVC**: Shows short - term strength, and attention should be paid to overseas supply. Trend strength: 1 [128] - **Fuel Oil**: Continues to rise sharply at night, and the price is approaching the historical high. Trend strength: 2 [132] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rises strongly, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has rebounded. Trend strength: 2 [132] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The spill - over effect of the energy market may lead to the price breaking through 10,000. Trend strength: 2 [159] - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it shows short - term strength. Trend strength: 1 [159] - **Soybean Meal**: The futures price is strong, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East. Trend strength: 1 [165] - **Soybeans**: The futures price is strong, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment. Trend strength: 1 [165] - **Corn**: Shows a moderately strong sideways movement. Trend strength: 0 [168] - **Sugar**: Linked to crude oil through ethanol, the market sentiment is bullish. Trend strength: 1 [172] - **Cotton**: Waiting for new driving factors. Trend strength: 1 [177] - **Eggs**: Remains in a sideways movement. Trend strength: 0 [182] - **Hogs**: The inventory pressure is difficult to resolve, and the weakness continues. Trend strength: -1 [185] - **Peanuts**: Runs in a sideways pattern. Trend strength: 0 [190] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Dominated by geopolitical sentiment, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. Trend strength: 1 [134] Building Materials - **Logs**: The demand shows seasonal recovery, and the price difference is in a positive arbitrage operation. Trend strength: 0 [63] Iron and Steel - **Iron Ore**: The transportation cost has increased, and the ore price has rebounded slightly. Trend strength: 1 [47] - **Rebar**: Runs in a sideways and volatile pattern. Trend strength: 0 [50] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Runs in a sideways and volatile pattern. Trend strength: 0 [50] - **Silicon Iron**: There is a game between long and short positions, and it runs in a wide - range sideways pattern. Trend strength: 0 [54] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is a game between long and short positions, and it runs in a wide - range sideways pattern. Trend strength: 0 [54] - **Coke**: After the first round of price cuts, it runs moderately strongly. Trend strength: 0 [58] - **Coking Coal**: The energy attribute continues to ferment, and it runs moderately strongly. Trend strength: 0 [58] - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand situation has become looser, and the coal price has回调. Trend strength: -1 [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that finished products and iron ore will fluctuate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation. For trading, it is advisable to cautiously arrange long positions for rebar and hot - rolled coils, set stop - losses. For arbitrage, enter long hot - rolled coil and short rebar arbitrage orders opportunistically, and continue to hold existing positions with a suggested stop - loss of 110 and a take - profit of over 200 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - On Friday, rebar, iron ore, and hot - rolled coils all closed up, and they continued to close up during the night session [1]. 3.2. Important Information - Fujian aims to reach an annual manufacturing capacity of 50 electric ships by 2028 [1]. - In late February 2026, key steel enterprises produced 1622 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 202.7 million tons (a 0.1% daily output decrease month - on - month); 1518 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 189.7 million tons (a 2.9% daily output increase month - on - month); and 1689 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 211.1 million tons (an 11.0% daily output increase month - on - month) [1]. - In late February 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1734 million tons, a decrease of 78 million tons (4.3%) from the previous ten - day period, an increase of 320 million tons (22.6%) from the beginning of the year, an increase of 263 million tons (17.9%) from the same ten - day period of the previous month, an increase of 103 million tons (6.3%) from the same ten - day period of last year, and a decrease of 68 million tons (3.8%) from the same ten - day period of the year before last [1]. - The C50 Wind Direction Index survey shows that new credit and social financing in February may increase less year - on - year, and the M2 growth rate may decline slightly [1]. - The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping market has heated up sharply recently. The daily rent of LNG transport ships has soared from about $40,000 last week to about $300,000 currently, a rise of about 6.5 times. Due to the escalating situation in the Middle East, traders are scrambling to charter ships [1]. - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 20.71%, a 13.36 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 31.38 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year; the average operating rate was 24.71%, a 14.57 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 42.22 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [1]. 3.3. Market Logic - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 7.9724 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 million tons. The output structure of steel products has differentiated, with the output of rebar and wire rod increasing and the output of hot - rolled products decreasing. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 19.52 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0589 billion tons (a 5.7% increase). The total inventory of the five major products has rebounded, and both building materials and plates are in a state of inventory accumulation. Building materials inventory increased by 0.8976 billion tons, and plate inventory increased by 0.1613 billion tons. In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of the five major products was 6.9135 billion tons, with the consumption of building materials increasing by 113.9% month - on - month and the consumption of plates increasing by 8.6% month - on - month. The consumption structure of building materials and plates in the five major products remains the same. From the industrial perspective, there is still room for further production increase of the five major steel products, the inflection point of finished product inventory destocking will be postponed, and the supply - demand contradiction in the black market is accumulating [1]. - Mysteel statistics show that the daily output of refined powder of 186 national mining enterprises is 453,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31,500 tons. The inventory of refined powder in mines is 950,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 137,000 tons [1]. - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows that the blast furnace operating rate is 77.71%, a 2.51 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 1.80 - percentage - point decrease from last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 85.32%, a 2.13 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 1.22 - percentage - point decrease from last year; the steel mill profitability rate is 38.1%, a 1.73 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 15.15 - percentage - point decrease from last year; the daily molten iron output is 2.2759 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 29,200 tons [1][2]. - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 national ports is 178.9483 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,300 tons; the daily port clearance volume is 3.2698 million tons, an increase of 134,500 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore is 82.8149 million tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore is 58.0740 million tons, a decrease of 407,000 tons; the inventory of traded ore is 117.8021 million tons, an increase of 685,600 tons; the inventory of coarse powder is 138.6641 million tons, a decrease of 763,300 tons; the inventory of lump ore is 20.0406 million tons, an increase of 244,900 tons; the inventory of refined powder is 16.4641 million tons, an increase of 551,500 tons; the inventory of pellets is 3.7795 million tons, an increase of 2,200 tons. The number of ships in port is 115, an increase of 4. Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 national ports is 171.1786 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 259,000 tons; the daily port clearance volume is 3.1108 million tons, an increase of 126,000 tons; the number of ships in port is 112, an increase of 5 [2]. - The daily consumption of imported ore of 247 national sample steel mills has decreased by 78,600 tons to 2.8085 million tons, reaching a new low this year. Steel mills purchase on demand, and the inventory of imported ore in the factory has decreased by 735,200 tons to 90.1157 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.86%, reaching a new low in the same period in recent years. However, the inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased by 0.62 days to 32.09 days. Later, steel mills may have a demand for iron ore replenishment, but the high port inventory still suppresses the market trend [2]. 3.4. Trading Strategy - It is expected that finished products and iron ore will fluctuate with a bullish bias. The support level for rebar is 3000, and the pressure level is 3120. The support level for hot - rolled coils is 3180, and the pressure level is 3300. The support level for iron ore is 730, and the pressure level is 800 [2]. - Unilateral trading: Cautiously arrange long positions for rebar and hot - rolled coils and set stop - losses. - Arbitrage: Enter long hot - rolled coil and short rebar arbitrage orders opportunistically, continue to hold existing positions, with a suggested stop - loss of 110 and a take - profit of over 200 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected performance above the market average [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the industry, while also noting a seasonal recovery in demand [1]. - It emphasizes the tightening supply of copper concentrate, with a significant drop in treatment charges (TC) to -56.0 USD per dry ton, reflecting a supply shortage [4]. - The report discusses the potential for gold prices to rise due to fluctuations in non-farm employment data, with current prices at 1140.8 CNY per gram and 5168.0 USD per ounce [4]. - It notes a recovery in aluminum demand post-Spring Festival, with LME aluminum prices increasing by 7.2% week-on-week [4]. - The report also mentions the positive signals from the "Two Sessions" in China, suggesting an improvement in supply and demand dynamics for the steel industry [5]. Summary by Sections Copper - The report indicates a significant tightening in copper concentrate supply, with TC dropping sharply, suggesting a focus on companies with rich copper resources such as Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum [4][8]. Precious Metals - The report anticipates a potential increase in gold prices due to employment data volatility, recommending companies like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold for investment [4][8]. Aluminum - The report highlights the ongoing impact of Middle Eastern supply issues and a seasonal demand recovery, suggesting investment in companies like China Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum [4][8]. Minor Metals - The report discusses the geopolitical situation affecting minor metals, recommending investments in rare earth companies and tungsten producers due to rising demand [4][8]. Steel - The report notes positive developments from China's "Two Sessions," indicating a potential recovery in domestic demand for steel, recommending companies like Baosteel and Shougang [5][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose by 2.33%. The iron ore port inventory is high, and the fundamental supply and demand are relatively loose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict on the macro - front, the sharp rise in energy prices has led to strong market expectations of inflation, and the increase in shipping prices may support iron ore in the medium and long term. Overall, the loose fundamentals limit the upside space of iron ore, while inflation expectations limit the downside space. Iron ore will generally fluctuate, and the price center may rise slightly [4][5][30] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Disk Analysis - **Futures Price**: No specific content provided in the text - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PB powder 61.5% at Tianjin Port is mentioned, but no specific price data is given [11] - **Position Analysis**: Futures seat net position analysis is mentioned, but no specific content is provided [12] 3.2 Important Market Information - Last week, due to the Middle East conflict, in the commodity futures market, crude oil and natural gas rose significantly. WTI crude oil rose by 36.18%, and natural gas rose by 11.30%. Most non - ferrous and precious metal prices fell. In the global stock market, Chinese and European and American stock markets all declined, with half of the countries' stock markets falling by more than 5%. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index closed at 98.86, up 1.24%. In February, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. 95% of coal - fired power generation capacity, 90% of steel production capacity, 3.6 billion tons of coking capacity, and 4.7 billion tons of cement clinker capacity have completed ultra - low emission transformation. In late February, key steel enterprises produced 16.22 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.027 million tons, a 0.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 15.18 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.897 million tons, a 2.9% increase in daily output month - on - month; and 16.89 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.111 million tons, an 11.0% increase in daily output month - on - month [15] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of January 2026, Australia's iron ore shipments were 61.112 million tons, a decrease of 10.281 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipments were 18.891 million tons, a decrease of 8.744 million tons from the first half of the month [20] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - The text mentions 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal output and Shanghai's terminal wire and screw procurement volume, but no specific data analysis is provided [24][25] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country is 171.1786 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 259,000 tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.1108 million tons, an increase of 126,000 tons; the number of ships at the port is 112, an increase of 5. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country is 178.9483 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,300 tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.2698 million tons, an increase of 134,500 tons. Mysteel's survey shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 77.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 85.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.13%; the steel mill profitability rate is 38.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.15%; the average daily hot metal output is 2.2759 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 56,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 29,200 tons [29] 3.6 Market Outlook - The iron ore port inventory is high, and the fundamental supply and demand are relatively loose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict on the macro - front, the sharp rise in energy prices has led to strong market expectations of inflation, and the increase in shipping prices may support iron ore in the medium and long term. Overall, the loose fundamentals limit the upside space of iron ore, while inflation expectations limit the downside space. Iron ore will generally fluctuate, and the price center may rise slightly [30] 3.7 Operation Strategies - **Unilateral**: Treat it with a mid - term view of being long on dips and with a bias towards a bullish trend in the range - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see - **Options**: Wait and see [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black - series commodities will return to the fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "high - inventory reality" and the "peak - season demand expectation". In the short term, whether the demand recovery intensity can match the supply recovery speed will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot and Basis - For rebar, the spot price and basis information are provided, with a basis of 102, indicating a bullish signal. For hot - rolled coil, the spot price is 3230 yuan/ton and the basis is 0, showing a neutral signal [1][2] Profit and Cost - For rebar, the supply is continuously recovering, the inventory of steel mills and society is accumulating, the spot price is under pressure, and the disk profit is further declining, showing a bearish signal [1] Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, showing a bearish signal. Hot - rolled coil: The social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, and the inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, showing a bearish signal [1][2] Rebar Demand and Downstream - No specific content provided in the report Hot - Rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The downstream consumption volume has increased, but the intensity is still insufficient to digest the high - level inventory, showing a bearish signal [2] Macro - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black - series commodities will return to the fundamental logic, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [1][2]

Industrial Sector - After the Spring Festival, industrial production continues to recover, with industrial product price index rising rapidly, driven by international oil prices[2] - Steel and construction material production increased, with cement clinker capacity utilization rate and float glass operating rate rising month-on-month[2] - Daily average pig iron production decreased month-on-month, while polyester operating rate in textiles rebounded[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 21.7% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 54.5 percentage points compared to the previous week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.69% month-on-month as of February 23[2] Domestic Demand - Domestic flight execution increased by 19.9% year-on-year, with the Baidu migration index up by 54.6%[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, a drop of 19.2 percentage points compared to the previous value[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.4% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 10.9%[2] - Vietnam's export value grew by 18.3% year-on-year, and South Korea's exports increased by 31.4%[2] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index rose by 8.4%, with the Nanhua Petrochemical Index increasing by 16.2%[2] - The agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 1.5% month-on-month, indicating seasonal decline[2]

Market Overview - In February, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed a divergence, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap growth and Hong Kong tech stocks experiencing significant adjustments[4] - The geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, have led to a rise in international gold and oil prices, impacting the cyclical sectors in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks[4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on strategic resources and cyclical recovery sectors, particularly industrial metals like copper, precious metals, and energy metals due to supply constraints and geopolitical tensions[4] - Emphasis on technology self-reliance and new productivity sectors, particularly AI computing and military industries, is recommended as the market anticipates policy support[4] Key Stock Recommendations - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is projected to have an EPS of 3.37 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 32.66 in 2024 to 11.70 in 2026, indicating strong growth potential[6] - New Fengming (603225.SH) is expected to benefit from seasonal demand, with an EPS forecast of 0.99 yuan in 2026 and a PE ratio of 21.44[21] - Baosteel (600019.SH) is highlighted for its significant market share in high-end products, with an EPS of 0.55 yuan in 2026 and a PE ratio of 13.29[30] Financial Projections - The projected revenue for Zijin Mining is expected to grow from 303.64 billion yuan in 2024 to 423.24 billion yuan in 2026, with a net profit increase from 32.05 billion yuan to 89.51 billion yuan during the same period[19] - New Fengming's revenue is projected to increase from 67.09 billion yuan in 2024 to 73.29 billion yuan in 2026, with a net profit growth from 11 billion yuan to 15.16 billion yuan[28] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes, underperformance in commercialization, and geopolitical uncertainties affecting market stability[4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The most significant changes in market sentiment this week were observed in the oil and petrochemical, and transportation sectors, with the oil and petrochemical sector showing a positive change rate of 154.9% [27] - The overall market valuation for major indices is high, with the rolling 5-year historical percentiles for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 at 93%, 99%, and 99% respectively [41] - The report highlights that several primary and secondary industries are currently above the 80% historical percentile, indicating potential overvaluation, including power equipment, electronics, and steel [43][44] Market Sentiment Monitoring - The weekly heat change rates for major indices showed that the CSI 300 increased by 10.5%, while the CSI 2000 decreased by 3.52% [16] - The top five primary industries with positive heat change rates were oil and petrochemical, transportation, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing, and steel [27] - The top five secondary industries with the highest positive heat change rates included refining and trading, gas II, oil service engineering, shipping ports, and agricultural chemical products [27] Market Valuation Monitoring - The report indicates that the current valuation of several primary industries is above the 80% historical percentile, including power equipment, electronics, and steel [43] - Conversely, industries such as food and beverage, and non-bank financials are below the 20% historical percentile, suggesting potential undervaluation [43] Weekly Event Tracking - A total of 12 stock incentive events were tracked this week, indicating ongoing corporate governance activities [45] - There were 26 significant shareholder changes, with 22 reductions and 4 increases, reflecting shifts in investor sentiment [48] - The report also tracked 10 private placement events, highlighting capital-raising activities within the market [50] Summary - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and valuation metrics to identify potential investment opportunities and risks within the industry [6][39]