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螺矿产业链年报:钢价震荡筑底,关注政策对供给端的影响过剩进一步兑现,但矿价下行料将曲折
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 12:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, steel prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies on the supply side. Demand is unlikely to improve significantly, but with the continuous implementation of policies such as anti - involution and a warm macro - environment, steel prices may form a bottom, with a possible fluctuation range of (2800, 3500), showing a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half [83][85]. - In 2026, the oversupply of iron ore will become more prominent, but the decline in ore prices is expected to be tortuous. The supply is expected to increase significantly, demand may decline slightly, and inventory is likely to accumulate at a high level. The price fluctuation range may be (600, 850), with high prices in the first quarter, a decline in the second quarter, and more downward pressure in the second half of the year [86][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Steel - In 2025, steel prices showed a pattern of decline - rise - decline again. From January to June, prices dropped due to factors such as overseas trade frictions, weak domestic demand, and falling raw material costs. In July, prices rose driven by anti - involution policies. From August to December, prices oscillated downward due to weak demand and inventory accumulation. For example, rebar mostly traded in the range of 3000 - 3200 [5][8]. 3.1.2. Iron Ore - In 2025, iron ore prices first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated. From January to June, prices fell due to factors like overseas recession expectations and rumors of crude steel production restrictions. In July, prices rebounded due to anti - involution policies and strong demand. From August to December, prices oscillated at a high level but with gradually lower peaks [9][12]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1. US Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% in December 2025, the third cut this year. It also plans to start a monthly short - term Treasury purchase program of about $40 billion. The dot - plot predicts one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026 and 2027 each [13]. 3.2.2. US Economic Indicators - The US employment market is weak. In November, non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. Inflation in November was significantly lower than expected, with CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and core CPI rising 2.6% year - on - year [17][18]. 3.2.3. China - US Relations - China - US relations are currently in a relatively stable period. After rounds of negotiations, some tariffs have been cancelled or suspended. However, there are still uncertainties, and strategic competition between the two countries persists [23]. 3.2.4. Domestic Credit and Economy - In November, new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, with corporate net financing being the main support. New RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, with weak demand from residents and enterprises. Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 set a tone for more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, aiming to expand domestic demand [25][29]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1. Terminal Demand - Real estate is still at the bottom, dragging down building material demand. In 2025, real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market, but the effect was limited [30][31]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to be stable in 2026. In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment turned negative, affected by factors such as fiscal front - loading and project reserves [33][34]. - Manufacturing investment may maintain some resilience but with industry differentiation. In 2025, it was supported by exports and policies, with a growth rate of 1.9% from January to November [36][38]. - The automobile industry had a good performance in 2025, with production and sales reaching new highs. In 2026, it may face some challenges due to policy changes. The home appliance industry maintained low - growth [39][42]. - The construction machinery industry is expected to maintain growth in 2026, and the shipbuilding industry continued to be prosperous in 2025 [43][45]. - Steel exports were an important support for demand in 2025. In 2026, exports may be restricted by policies in the short term [46][47]. 3.3.2. Steel Supply - In 2025, China's crude steel and pig iron production decreased year - on - year. In 2026, steel production is expected to be further adjusted according to demand and profit, with capacity likely to shrink [54]. 3.3.3. Steel Profit - In 2025, steel mill profits were high in the first half and low in the second half. In 2026, mills are expected to maintain a thin - profit state, affected by factors such as demand and cost [57]. 3.3.4. Steel Production - In 2025, rebar production was at a low level, while hot - rolled coil production was high. In 2026, this differentiation pattern is expected to continue [60]. 3.3.5. Steel Inventory - In 2025, steel inventory pressure emerged in the second half. Rebar inventory was relatively neutral, while hot - rolled coil inventory pressure was large. In 2026, attention should be paid to the supply pressure of plates [63]. 3.3.6. Steel Price Spread - In 2025, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar prices first widened and then narrowed, reflecting changes in the supply - demand structure [64]. 3.3.7. Iron Ore Supply - In 2025, global iron ore shipments increased slightly. In 2026, global iron ore supply is expected to grow significantly, with about 2000 tons of incremental supply from major mines and strong incremental expectations from non - mainstream mines [68][88]. 3.3.8. Iron Ore Demand - In 2025, iron ore demand was resilient, but in 2026, it is expected to decline slightly due to the implementation of crude steel production control policies [79]. 3.3.9. Iron Ore Inventory - In 2025, port inventory of iron ore was high, and steel mill inventory was low. In 2026, port inventory is expected to remain high, and steel mills will continue to purchase on - demand [82]. 3.4. Market Outlook 3.4.1. Steel - In 2026, steel demand is expected to be weak, but steel prices may oscillate and bottom out due to policies and a warm macro - environment. The price may fluctuate between 2800 and 3500, with a possible pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half [85]. 3.4.2. Iron Ore - In 2026, the iron ore market will face an oversupply situation, but the decline in ore prices will be tortuous. The price may fluctuate between 600 and 850, with high prices in the first quarter, a decline in the second quarter, and more downward pressure in the second half of the year [88].
福州大学发布《福建省上市公司智力资本信息披露评价报告(2025)》
该报告通过构建智力资本信息披露指数,对福建省上市公司的智力资本信息披露水平进行测度评价,指 出2022—2024年,福建省A股上市公司的总体智力资本以及人力资本、结构资本的信息披露水平有所提 高,但不同公司间的披露水平差异呈扩大趋势。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 转自:新华财经 2025年12月25日上午,《福建省上市公司智力资本信息披露评价报告(2025)》发布会在福州大学召 开。来自福建省上市公司协会,以及省内高校、券商、基金公司、上市公司的代表参加了本次发布会。 《福建省上市公司智力资本信息披露评价报告(2025)》是福州大学智力资本蓝皮书课题的重要研究成 果,由福州大学智力资本课题组完成,科学出版社出版,是国内外第一本智力资本蓝皮书。 该报告根据上市公司智力资本信息披露指数得分对上市公司进行评级,其中,2024年入围智力资本信息 披露指数评级榜的上市公司共123家,获评A+级、A级、B+级、B级、C+级与C级的上市公司分别有9 家、9家、19家、15家、33家、38家。获得A+级的公司为三钢闽光、恺英网络、昇兴股份、吉宏股份、 青松股份、宁德时代、片仔癀、龙高股份、特宝生物。此外 ...
钢铁“瘦身”:减量之后,如何新生?
21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 钢铁产业正在打响一场"控产能"之战。 近日,冶金工业规划研究院预测,到2026年钢材需求量约为8亿吨,同比下降1.0%。这一预测降幅超出 此前市场预期,如何促进行业供需平衡?在此之前,我国已针对钢铁产业进行了多轮产能调整,但供需 矛盾至今仍未彻底解决,问题出在哪里? 有受访专家指出,其核心原因可以归结为"政策-市场-结构"三重错位:一是政策执行被"稀释";二是需 求萎缩速度超过产能压缩速度;三是行业结构"小、散、低"固化。 据21世纪经济报道记者不完全统计,已有10个省份在"十五五"规划建议中对钢铁产业的发展进行了部 署,其中,产业"升级"是一大高频词。从钢铁第一大省河北来看,其在"十五五"规划建议中提到,推动 重点产业转型升级,加快实现钢铁从原料级向材料级转变,提高河北钢铁在全球产业分工中的竞争力。 展望钢铁产业的"十五五",冶金工业规划研究院党委书记、院长肖邦国对21世纪经济报道记者表示,钢 铁行业目前大的产能布局已基本结束,国家政策也对新布局钢铁产能项目设置有一定门槛。下一步,政 府部门可能会考虑用差别化政策推动一批落后低效产能退出,几乎所有政策都是差别化、分等分级的, 从而 ...
2025年终经济观察|笃“实”夯基 现代化产业体系建设持续推进
新华社北京12月26日电 题:笃"实"夯基 现代化产业体系建设持续推进 新华社记者周圆、王悦阳 现代化产业体系是中国式现代化的物质技术基础。 工业、农业、服务业和基础设施发展迈上新台阶,科技创新和产业创新融合发展走深向实,产业协同发 展持续加深……一年来,我国产业规模优势、体系优势和部分领域领先优势进一步巩固。 日前召开的中央经济工作会议指出,2025年我国"现代化产业体系建设持续推进",并提出"坚持创新驱 动,加紧培育壮大新动能"。 记者调研时感受到,当前各地以科技创新引领新质生产力发展,加快构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化 产业体系,不断巩固壮大实体经济,为我国在未来发展和国际竞争中赢得战略主动。 以"实"为基,筑牢产业发展底盘 走进山东中航泰达复合材料有限公司生产车间,一台台热压罐将发货区排得满满当当。 "我们一直深耕复合材料高端装备领域,不断加大研发投入,今年成功研制出超大型热压罐。"公司总经 理张利新说,目前公司在全国热压罐市场占有率超30%,明年的订单已全线排满。 今年以来,国内外环境复杂多变、产业链供应链承压波动。建设现代化产业体系,必须把发展经济的着 力点放在实体经济上。 国务院办公厅发布关于做 ...
13个重点领域294项国家标准发布 “两新”标准提升行动圆满收官
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-12-26 11:42
新华社北京12月26日电 题:13个重点领域294项国家标准发布 "两新"标准提升行动圆满收官 新华社记者赵文君 围绕废旧产品回收、拆解、再生利用等关键环节,组织制修订家电、家具、电子产品、光伏、风 电、动力电池等66项资源回收利用国家标准,引导产品设计时就考虑易回收、易再生,规范产品回收时 要科学拆解再利用,打通全链条循环畅通的堵点卡点。 例如,出台电子产品信息清除强制性国家标准,明确技术要求和各方责任,保障二手产品流通安全 与隐私保护。发布12项动力电池回收利用国家标准,构建涵盖拆解、余能检测、再生利用等环节的国家 标准体系,促进镍、钴、锂等战略资源高效回收利用。 中国轻工业联合会副会长刘江毅表示,在国家稳增长、促消费系列政策的协同支持下,标准的发布 实施,不仅为消费品以旧换新政策落地见效提供了坚实支撑,更有效驱动轻工行业实现转型升级。 刘江毅介绍,家用电器性能品质、创新品类等标准,有效支撑以旧换新政策落地。今年1至11月, 我国家电以旧换新超1.28亿台,带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元。家用电器回收服务等标准,规范回收 处置流程,提升废旧家电的回收效率和资源利用率。今年1至10月,我国规范拆解电视机、 ...
2025年终经济观察丨笃“实”夯基 现代化产业体系建设持续推进
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-12-26 10:58
新华社北京12月26日电 题:笃"实"夯基 现代化产业体系建设持续推进 新华社记者周圆、王悦阳 现代化产业体系是中国式现代化的物质技术基础。 工业、农业、服务业和基础设施发展迈上新台阶,科技创新和产业创新融合发展走深向实,产业协 同发展持续加深……一年来,我国产业规模优势、体系优势和部分领域领先优势进一步巩固。 日前召开的中央经济工作会议指出,2025年我国"现代化产业体系建设持续推进",并提出"坚持创 新驱动,加紧培育壮大新动能"。 克服干旱、洪涝等自然灾害影响,全国粮食实现丰收,稳定在1.4万亿斤以上,农业基础地位不断 巩固; 加强重点行业产能治理,改善供求关系,11月份41个工业大类行业中有30个行业增加值同比增长, 工业经济稳中有进; 增加优质服务供给,加快培育服务业经济新增长点,前三季度服务业增加值拉动国内生产总值增长 3.1个百分点,服务业质量效益持续提升; 以"两重"项目为重点,交通、水利、城市更新等基础设施建设深入推进…… 记者调研时感受到,当前各地以科技创新引领新质生产力发展,加快构建以先进制造业为骨干的现 代化产业体系,不断巩固壮大实体经济,为我国在未来发展和国际竞争中赢得战略主动。 以" ...
中国信保山西分公司:发挥出口信用保险作用,推动山西绿色能源国际合作
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-26 10:51
Core Insights - The China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation's Shanxi branch has provided risk protection for Shanxi's $28.9 billion foreign economic and trade activities, with support for foreign trade amounting to $24.62 billion in 2023 [1] - The company is focusing on supporting the new energy sector, particularly in solar and wind power, while also aiding the transformation of traditional energy and chemical industries [1][2] - In 2024, under the support of export credit insurance, Shanxi's exports of "new three products" (solar cells, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles) are expected to achieve a remarkable growth of 199% year-on-year [1] Industry Support and Initiatives - The company actively supports the national green low-carbon development strategy by assisting key local enterprises in participating in global supply chain restructuring [2] - Projects include investments in wind power in Bangladesh and low-carbon steel production in Malaysia, showcasing the company's commitment to sustainable development [2] - The company has been insuring multiple overseas solar and wind projects, demonstrating significant results and leading roles in Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [2] Notable Projects - The 119 MW solar power project in Singapore, constructed by China Energy Engineering Group Shanxi Institute, marks a significant achievement for Chinese enterprises in the region [3] - The Oman Manah No. 2 solar power project is notable for achieving a 90% commercial risk compensation ratio, becoming a model case for policy insurance supporting green energy initiatives [3]
【26日资金路线图】有色金属板块净流入逾183亿元居首 龙虎榜机构抢筹多股
证券时报· 2025-12-26 10:48
Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on December 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3963.68 points, up 0.1%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13603.89 points, up 0.54% [1] - Total market turnover reached 21812.64 billion, an increase of 2372.04 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The main capital in the A-share market experienced a net outflow of 242.43 billion, with an opening net outflow of 96.61 billion and a closing net outflow of 6.56 billion [2] - The CSI 300 index saw a net outflow of 54.39 billion, while the ChiNext index had a net outflow of 133.96 billion and the STAR Market a net outflow of 20.89 billion [4] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led with a net inflow of 183.35 billion, showing a rise of 2.35% [6][7] - Other sectors with net inflows included non-bank financials (40.67 billion) and electric power equipment (16.91 billion) [7] - The electronics sector faced the largest net outflow at -173.32 billion, followed by machinery equipment at -86.84 billion and pharmaceuticals at -39.51 billion [7] Notable Stocks - Yangguang Electric Power saw the highest net inflow of 23.72 billion [8] - Institutional buying was noted in several stocks, including Aerospace Development with a net purchase of 481.76 million [11][12]
新兴铸管:子公司12.44亿元完成收购华润制钢100%股权
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-26 10:28
新兴铸管公告称,2025年12月9 - 10日公司第十届董事会第十六次会议同意子公司芜湖新兴以12.44亿元 收购华润制钢100%股权。收购不构成关联交易和重大资产重组。交易各方签署协议,完成国资委产权 登记、工商变更登记,芜湖新兴支付转让款,华润制钢更名为江阴新兴特钢。上海泰臣投资支付5500万 元托管费,偿还11.41亿元债务,解除股权质押。至此交易完成,芜湖新兴持有江阴新兴100%股权,其 纳入公司合并报表范围。 ...
酒钢宏兴(600307.SH):拟2000万元设立西藏销售全资子公司 强化西藏区域销售渠道建设
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-26 10:24
本次投资设立西藏销售全资子公司,旨在强化西藏区域销售渠道建设,有助于在激烈的区域竞争中占据 有利地位,巩固和扩大区域市场份额,对公司的长远发展和企业效益将产生积极影响。 格隆汇12月26日丨酒钢宏兴(600307.SH)公布,为精准把握西部大开发政策红利,深度融入西藏地区经 济发展进程,巩固和扩大区域市场份额,持续增强酒钢品牌的综合竞争力,公司拟使用自有货币资金 2000万元,在西藏自治区林芝市设立西藏销售全资子公司。 ...