1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher, with a daily increase of 1.30%. The supply and demand of rebar have both increased, but the industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and the fundamentals are still weak. Supported by cost and positive commodity sentiment, rebar prices are expected to continue to stabilize in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil also fluctuated higher, with a daily increase of 1.58%. Currently, hot-rolled coil production has declined, but inventory remains high, and supply pressure persists. Demand resilience is weakening, industrial contradictions are accumulating, and prices continue to face pressure. Positive commodity sentiment is expected to keep hot-rolled coil prices in a volatile range. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore rose strongly, with a daily increase of 2.28%. Driven by short-term factors such as rising transportation costs and structural contradictions in varieties, iron ore prices have trended higher. However, iron ore demand has weakened again, and supply is increasing. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward momentum is limited. A cautious and optimistic outlook for future trends is recommended, with attention on steel performance [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the national CPI increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.8% year-on-year. The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing continuously [7]. - In February, China's shipbuilding industry led the global market with an 80% market share in new ship orders. Global new ship orders totaled 163 vessels (5.21 million CGT), a 15% increase year-on-year. Chinese shipyards received orders for 131 vessels (4.15 million CGT), ranking first globally, and achieving the highest market share since August 2024 [8]. - As of March 6, 38 steel enterprises have passed the acceptance of the ultimate energy efficiency benchmark, including Hanbao Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. of Handan Iron and Steel Group and Yongfeng Lingang Co., Ltd. of Shandong Iron and Steel Group [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190, 3,150, and 3,324 respectively, with daily changes of 30, 30, and 24 [10]. - Hot-rolled coil: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,260, 3,180, and 3,287 respectively, with daily changes of 30, 40, and 22 [10]. - Tangshan billet: The spot price was 2,930, with no daily change [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price was 2,160, with no daily change [10]. - Iron ore: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 770, with a daily increase of 5. The price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767, with a daily increase of 5. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 10.30 and 25.65 respectively, with daily changes of -0.73 and -0.41. The SGX swap price (current month) was 102.20, with a daily increase of 1.19. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 102.65, with a daily increase of 1.30 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,119, with a daily increase of 1.30%. The trading volume was 1,576,431, with an increase of 872,128. The open interest was 1,740,832, with a decrease of 57,900 [14]. - Hot-rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,270, with a daily increase of 1.58%. The trading volume was 784,875, with an increase of 444,546. The open interest was 1,292,623, with a decrease of 106,185 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 784.5, with a daily increase of 2.28%. The trading volume was 411,614, with an increase of 146,950. The open interest was 473,257, with a decrease of 14,997 [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social warehouses [16][17][19]. - Iron ore inventory: The report includes charts on the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as the seasonal inventory of 45 ports [24][25][28]. - Steel mill production: The report shows charts on the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills [32][34][39]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand have both increased. The production of short-process steel mills has resumed, leading to an increase in production. However, demand is still at a relatively low level, and the policy has not exceeded expectations. The fundamentals remain weak, and prices continue to face pressure. Supported by cost and positive commodity sentiment, rebar prices are expected to continue to stabilize in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - Hot-rolled coil: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has decreased, but inventory remains high, and supply pressure persists. Demand has also weakened, and the resilience of demand is expected to decline. The industrial contradictions are accumulating, and prices continue to face pressure. Positive commodity sentiment is expected to keep hot-rolled coil prices in a volatile range. Attention should be paid to demand changes [40]. - Iron ore: Demand has weakened again due to environmental restrictions and poor profitability of steel mills. Supply is increasing, with a significant increase in domestic port arrivals and a recovery in domestic mine production. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward momentum is limited. A cautious and optimistic outlook for future trends is recommended, with attention on steel performance [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the spot and futures prices of ferromanganese silicon (FeMnSi) oscillated at a low level under the dominance of the real - world logic as industry contradictions accumulated near the holiday [3]. - Before the holiday, steel mills actively replenished stocks, but the inventory pressure on FeMnSi production enterprises was not alleviated. Their inventory levels continued to rise, mainly concentrated in the main production areas, and gradually converted into exchange warehouse receipts. The high overall inventory continued to suppress the price trend of FeMnSi [3]. - During the holiday, FeMnSi enterprises maintained stable production. The output contraction trend did not continue, and with high in - plant inventory and the gradual launch of new production capacity, the supply pressure needed to be alleviated. The relatively positive factor was that raw material prices rose steadily, the cost - support effect gradually emerged, and production enterprises' losses increased, limiting production enthusiasm and making a significant increase in production less likely, which supported the FeMnSi price. Attention should be paid to changes in the ore end [3]. - Affected by the holiday, steel mills' production weakened in February, and the demand for FeMnSi was under pressure. After the holiday, steel mills would gradually resume production, and the demand for FeMnSi would improve marginally. However, the contradictions in the steel market were not resolved, and production - restriction policies still existed, so the improvement in demand was limited, and the boosting effect was not strong. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of short - process steel mills [3]. - In general, under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of FeMnSi were weak. Coupled with high inventory pressure, the FeMnSi price was still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor was that as major meetings approached, domestic policy expectations increased, and the weight of macro trading would rise. It was expected that the market operation logic would switch between weak reality and strong expectation, and the FeMnSi trend would maintain an oscillating state. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the production situation of FeMnSi enterprises [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2 - Month FeMnSi Oscillated at a Low Level - Since December last year, the spot and futures prices of FeMnSi had oscillated upwards, and the price of the main contract exceeded the 6,000 yuan/ton mark. However, at the beginning of the new year, the market operation logic returned to the industrial end, and near the holiday, industry contradictions accumulated, causing the FeMnSi price to decline under pressure, giving back most of the previous gains [8]. - By February 25, the closing price of the main FeMnSi contract was 5,752 yuan/ton, a 2.04% decrease from the end - of - last - month value. The spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, and Ningxia also decreased compared with the end - of - last - month values [8]. - The spot and futures trends of FeMnSi were similar. Near the holiday, spot trading tended to stagnate, and the fluctuation range was lower than that of futures. The basis continued to rise from a low level [8]. 3.2 FeMnSi Inventory Rose to a High Level - As of the week of February 20, the total in - plant inventory of FeMnSi production enterprises was 394,800 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the end - of - last - month value, hitting a new high. The inventory was significantly higher than the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 266,300 tons and a growth rate of 207% [17]. - By region, inventories in all regions increased in February. The largest increase was in Ningxia, with a new inventory of 311,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the end - of - last - month value. Inner Mongolia's inventory also increased, and other regions had a slight increase in inventory [17]. - Before the holiday, steel mills actively replenished stocks, and the inventory available days continued to increase. The inventory available days of steel mills in February were 18.57 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.09 days. Most regions' inventory available days continued to rise, and the inventory levels in all regions were significantly higher than the same period last year [25]. - As of February 25, the number of FeMnSi warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 46,044, and the effective forecast volume was 2,365, with month - on - month increases of 8,131 and 571 respectively. The converted FeMnSi weight was 242,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,500 tons [26]. 3.3 FeMnSi Supply Ran Steadily - In January, FeMnSi production increased. The output was 854,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons and a growth rate of 1.24%. The largest increase was in Inner Mongolia, and the output in Guangxi and Guizhou also increased, while that in Ningxia decreased [28][31]. - In 2025, the FeMnSi output showed a V - shaped change. The annual cumulative output was 10,126,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22,100 tons and a decline rate of 0.22%. The monthly output was lowest in May and highest in October. The annual average monthly operating rate was 42.27%, a decrease of 6.45% compared with last year, but the output did not decline significantly due to new production capacity. The average monthly in - production capacity in 2025 was 1,905,100 tons, a significant increase of 15.05% compared with the same period last year. The FeMnSi production capacity to be put into production in 2026 was as high as 3,086,500 tons [31]. - As of the week of February 20, the operating rate of 187 independent FeMnSi enterprises was 35.84%, and the daily average output was 27,695 tons, showing a stable operation. The daily average output was slightly higher than the same period last year. The output in Inner Mongolia increased, while that in Ningxia decreased. Other regions' production was stable [35]. - The cost of FeMnSi production increased. As of February 25, the spot production costs in the northern and southern regions were 5,962 yuan/ton and 6,222 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases of 74.8 yuan and 7.8 yuan. Enterprises' losses increased, and the probability of a significant increase in production was not high, but attention should be paid to the pressure brought by new production capacity in the main production areas [44]. - The cost - support effect emerged, but its sustainability needed to be tracked. The supply - demand pattern of manganese ore did not change significantly, and the port inventory was stable. After the holiday, FeMnSi production enterprises had replenishment demand, but the positive effect was limited. Attention should be paid to changes in port ore - handling volume, South African manganese ore export policies, and the weak supply - demand situation of coke [46]. 3.4 FeMnSi Demand Improved Marginally - Affected by the holiday, steel mills' production weakened, and the demand for FeMnSi was under pressure. The production of long - process steel mills was stable, while that of short - process steel mills was significantly weakened. The steel output decreased, and the weekly demand for FeMnSi converted from the output of the five major steel products was 111,700 tons, a 4.73% decrease from the end - of - last - month value [54]. - After the holiday, steel mills would gradually resume production, especially short - process steel mills, and the demand for FeMnSi would experience seasonal recovery. However, the improvement in demand needed to be tracked. The downstream resumption of construction steel had a time lag, and steel mills' profitability did not improve significantly. During major meetings, environmental protection production - restriction policies would affect raw material demand [55]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - Near the holiday, FeMnSi industry contradictions accumulated, and in February, the spot and futures prices oscillated at a low level. Before the holiday, steel mills' inventory replenishment did not relieve the inventory pressure on FeMnSi production enterprises. The inventory was high and concentrated in the main production areas, and was gradually converted into exchange warehouse receipts, which continued to suppress the FeMnSi price [63]. - During the holiday, FeMnSi enterprises' production was stable, the output contraction trend did not continue, and with high in - plant inventory and new production capacity, the supply pressure needed to be alleviated. The cost - support effect emerged, and the probability of a significant increase in production was not high, which supported the FeMnSi price. Attention should be paid to changes in the ore end [63]. - Affected by the holiday, steel mills' production weakened in February, and the demand for FeMnSi was under pressure. After the holiday, the demand would improve marginally, but the improvement was limited due to unresolved steel - market contradictions and production - restriction policies. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of short - process steel mills [63]. - In general, the FeMnSi fundamentals were weak under stable supply and weak demand, and the price was still prone to pressure. As major meetings approached, domestic policy expectations increased, and the market operation logic would switch between weak reality and strong expectation. The FeMnSi trend would maintain an oscillating state. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the production situation of FeMnSi enterprises [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The weak real - estate data has suppressed the rebound height of glass, but with the approaching of the traditional glass consumption season, attention should be paid to the potential for a phased consumption increase and continuous inventory reduction. For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand remains relatively loose [1]. - After the holiday, with the resumption of production in downstream steel mills, the demand for ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is expected to improve. However, factors such as inventory pressure, cost support, and power price policies will affect their prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The futures market showed a strong - oscillating trend and recovered at the end of the session. In the spot market, the shipment of factories in the Shahe area was good, while the trading in the East China market was average, and the prices in other regions were generally stable. The spot price of float glass was 1269 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Soda Ash: The futures market also showed a strong - oscillating trend and recovered at the end. The domestic soda ash market was weak, with prices declining slightly. The inventory reduction rate slowed down and gradually shifted to inventory accumulation. The latest soda ash operating rate was 83.83%, and the device operation was normal [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The weak real - estate data has limited the rebound of glass. As it enters the traditional consumption season, attention should be paid to consumption and inventory changes. Currently, it is in the stage of near - month capital game [1]. - Soda Ash: The demand for float glass is weak due to real - estate data. After the spring maintenance, there is pressure for further inventory increase, and the long - term supply - demand is relatively loose [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - Ferromanganese: After the holiday, the ferromanganese futures market oscillated and adjusted, with a single - day increase in positions of 41,065. The market was in a wait - and - see state. The price in the northern market was 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market declined slightly after the holiday, with a single - day increase in positions of 15,984. The spot market was stable, waiting for the recovery of steel mills' rigid demand. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Ferromanganese: The fundamental contradiction has not further expanded, but the inventory pressure is still large. With the resumption of production in steel mills after the holiday, the demand is expected to improve. The firm price of manganese ore may increase the cost of ferromanganese [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply pressure has decreased as enterprises maintain low - load production. The resumption of production in steel mills will boost the rigid demand. However, the expected decline in domestic electricity prices and the relatively loose overall production capacity will suppress the price [3]. - **Strategy** - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1][2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating bearish [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [6] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel industry is facing accumulated contradictions and weakening cost support, with steel prices under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory and weak demand [1] - Iron ore has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, high - level inventory for a long time, and faces downward pressure in the short - term [3] - Coking coal and coke futures and spot prices are running weakly, and the future trend depends on factors such as downstream production resumption and cost [6] - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of thermal coal are gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating, with a long - term pattern of loose supply [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market weakened yesterday, with the rebar futures main contract closing at 3027 yuan/ton, down 0.92%, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closing at 3195 yuan/ton, down 0.84%. The spot market was stable, with few quotes due to the lack of obvious construction starts in downstream areas [1] - **Supply - Demand Logic**: The steel industry is in a situation of stable supply and weak demand, with continuous accumulation of contradictions, a significant increase in inventory, and steel prices under pressure. The supply pressure of plates remains, and demand continues to weaken seasonally. The inventory of the five major steel products is still increasing, and steel prices will follow the cost in the short - term [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore price oscillated slightly downward yesterday. On February 24, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port decreased slightly compared with the previous working day. The trading volume in the spot market was cold, with a cumulative transaction of 40.5 tons on February 24, and the average daily transaction this month was 55.7 tons, a 40.62% decrease from the previous period [2] - **Supply - Demand Logic**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 23.5% this period, with Australia's shipment volume increasing by 36.7% and Brazil's by 9%. The arrival volume at 45 domestic ports was 2152 tons, a 11% decrease, and at 47 ports was 2321.1 tons, a 7% decrease. The arrival volume of imported iron ore is still at a historical high. Before the Spring Festival, the molten iron output increased slightly, and after the steel mills completed restocking, the speculative demand declined. The port inventory decreased, while the steel mill inventory increased significantly. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been at a high level for a long time [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating bearish, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4][5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the coke main contract closed at 1634.5 yuan/ton, down 38.5 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decrease; the coking coal main contract closed at 1101.5 yuan/ton, down 18.5 yuan/ton, a 1.65% decrease. Coke spot prices are stable to weak. During the Spring Festival, coke enterprises produced normally, but due to poor logistics and sufficient downstream inventory, the shipment was slow, and the factory inventory accumulated while the raw coal inventory decreased. The market still has a downward expectation after the festival. Coking coal supply decreased during the Spring Festival, and the speculative demand weakened. After the festival, the supply and demand increased month - on - month, and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines determines the supply - demand pattern [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In terms of spot and futures, the coal prices in the main production areas are oscillating. Recently, some coal mines have gradually resumed production and sales, and the supply has slowly increased. The terminal procurement is small, and the overall demand has not been significantly boosted. At the port, the market continues to be strong, with low inventory. The import market is stable to strong, and the future import volume is expected to decrease [7] - **Supply - Demand Logic**: After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply pattern is loose [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views - **螺纹钢**: The main contract price fluctuated and recorded a daily increase of 0.13%. The pre - holiday situation of weak supply and demand remained unchanged. The fundamental contradictions of rebar continued to accumulate, inventory increased significantly, and steel prices continued to be under pressure. The positive factors were policy expectations and cost support. It was expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the resumption rhythm of short - process steel mills after the holiday [5]. - **热轧卷板**: The main contract price fluctuated and recorded a daily decline of 0%. The supply pressure of hot - rolled coils did not subside, while demand continued to weaken seasonally. The fundamentals were weak, and prices continued to be under pressure. The positive factor was the post - holiday policy expectation. It was expected to continue the weak and volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the demand recovery after the holiday [5]. - **铁矿石**: The main contract price declined weakly, recording a daily decline of 2.36%. Currently, iron ore demand improved, while supply contracted in the short term. The fundamentals of ore changed, but the sustainability of the improvement was questionable. Under the weak reality, ore prices continued to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of finished products during the holiday and the shipping situation of mines [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In January, the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was 0.3%, the same as last month; the decline in second - tier cities was 0.3%, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points; the decline in third - tier cities was 0.4%, the same as last month. The month - on - month decline in second - hand residential sales prices in first - tier cities was 0.5%, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points; the declines in second - and third - tier cities were 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, narrowing by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points [7]. - **Shipbuilding**: Hengli Shipbuilding (Dalian) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co., Ltd., signed contracts for 17 ships, with a contract value of approximately 1.6 - 1.8 billion US dollars (about 11.041 - 12.421 billion RMB) [8]. - **Steel**: Fujian Province announced the list of restricted smelting equipment of steel enterprises subject to differential electricity prices in 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coils (4.75mm) were 3,304 yuan and 3,279 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billets was 2,900 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 50 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,030 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 746 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767 yuan. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 8.81 yuan and 23.39 yuan respectively. The SGX swap price was 100.05, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 99.60 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,055 | 0.13 | 555,957 | 1,942,442 | | Hot - Rolled Coils | 3,222 | 0.00 | 277,887 | 1,482,223 | | Iron Ore | 746.0 | - 2.36 | 239,453 | 494,550 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report presented the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils [14][15][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: It showed the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including inventory and its seasonal changes and month - on - month changes [24][25][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: The report included the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [29][31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **螺纹钢**: Supply and demand continued to weaken, inventory increased significantly, and short - process steel mills significantly reduced production. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 22.52 tons. Demand was also weak, and the high - frequency demand index was at the lowest level in the same lunar calendar period in recent years. It was expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [37]. - **热轧卷板**: Supply and demand continued to weaken seasonally, inventory increased, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.40 tons. Demand continued to weaken, and the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 9.35 tons. It was expected to continue the weak and volatile operation [38]. - **铁矿石**: The supply - demand pattern changed. Steel mills resumed production before the holiday, and ore terminal consumption continued to rise. However, steel mill profitability was poor, and the increase in ore demand was limited. Overseas supply contracted in the short term, but the sustainability was weak. Ore prices continued to decline under pressure [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the spot and futures prices of ferrosilicon manganese oscillated and declined under the dominance of industrial logic. Although the prices once rose due to the warming of the commodity market sentiment and the increase in the cost side, the supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese did not improve substantially, leading to the price decline again. - As the Spring Festival approached, steel mills replenished their stocks as expected, but it did not relieve the inventory pressure of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises. The inventory remained high, mainly concentrated in the main production areas, which may suppress the futures price. - The high inventory in the ferrosilicon manganese market, the narrowing of enterprise losses, and the continuous release of new production capacity mean that the supply pressure has not subsided, which will significantly inhibit the upward movement of ferrosilicon manganese prices. - At the beginning of the new year, steel mill production stabilized. The increased production enthusiasm of construction steel mills brought marginal improvement in ferrosilicon manganese demand. However, the limited improvement in steel mill profitability and the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the off - season steel market led to weak production enthusiasm, and the demand for ferrosilicon manganese continued to operate weakly and stably. - Looking ahead, the operating logic of the ferrosilicon manganese market will switch between industrial logic and optimistic sentiment. During the Spring Festival, industrial contradictions are difficult to ease, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes of manganese ore [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Ferrosilicon Manganese Oscillated and Declined in January - At the beginning of the new year, the market operating logic returned to the industrial side, and the ferrosilicon manganese price was under pressure again and fell back, giving up most of the previous gains. - The previous rise in ferrosilicon manganese prices was driven by the warm sentiment in the commodity market and the significant increase in upstream costs. However, the supply - demand pattern did not improve substantially, with high enterprise inventory and slow destocking. - As of January 28, the futures price of the main ferrosilicon manganese contract closed at 5,832 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase to 6,074 yuan/ton during the period, a 1.49% decline from the end - of - last - month value. The spot price showed a similar trend, with a smaller fluctuation range than the futures price. The latest tender price of mainstream steel mills in January increased slightly [8]. 2. Ferrosilicon Manganese Inventory Remained High - As of January 23, the total inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises was 373,000 tons, a slight decrease of 13,000 tons from the end - of - last - month value, still at an absolute high level, 148% higher than the same period last year. - The inventory in different regions increased or decreased in January. The inventory in the main production area of Ningxia continued to rise, reaching a new high, with a year - on - year increase of 305%. There is a risk of the inventory being converted into exchange warehouse receipts. - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills replenished their stocks as expected, and the inventory available days increased significantly. However, it did not effectively reduce the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises, indicating obvious industrial contradictions. - As of January 27, the exchange warehouse receipts of ferrosilicon manganese increased. If the price difference is appropriate, enterprises may actively hedge on the futures market, which may put pressure on the futures price [18][26][29]. 3. Limited Supply Contraction of Ferrosilicon Manganese - In December, the production of ferrosilicon manganese enterprises was weak and stable, with little change in output. In 2025, the cumulative output of domestic ferrosilicon manganese was 10.1264 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.22%. The monthly output reached a maximum of 915,700 tons in October. - The production enterprise's operating rate decreased significantly in 2025, but the output did not decrease significantly due to the release of new production capacity. In 2026, the to - be - put - into - production capacity of ferrosilicon manganese is as high as 3.0865 million tons. - As of January 23, the operating rate and daily output of ferrosilicon manganese enterprises rebounded, with a narrowing decline compared to the end - of - last - month value. The daily output was slightly lower than last year. - The previous rise in ferrosilicon manganese prices was driven by cost increases, mainly due to the rise in manganese ore prices. However, the cost support effect needs to be tracked, as the supply - demand pattern of manganese ore has not improved substantially, and the sustainability of cost increases is questionable [31][34][37]. 4. Weak and Stable Demand for Ferrosilicon Manganese - Since 2026, the resumption of work and production in domestic steel mills has continued to advance, and the demand for ferrosilicon manganese has improved marginally. The production of short - process steel mills has been active, driving an increase in domestic steel output. - The improvement in downstream steel production has led to an increase in the demand for ferrosilicon manganese. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon manganese converted from five major steel products has increased to 116,900 tons, slightly higher than the same period last year, but still at a low level. - There are concerns about the future growth space of ferrosilicon manganese demand. The profitability of steel mills has limited recovery, and the steel market is in the traditional off - season, with accumulating supply - demand contradictions. The demand is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably [56]. 5. Outlook for the Future - The ferrosilicon manganese market will switch between industrial logic and optimistic sentiment. During the Spring Festival, industrial contradictions are difficult to ease, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes of manganese ore [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.18%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Although the demand for rebar has improved, its sustainability is questionable. The supply is weakly stable, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season and will continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.97%, showing a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are running smoothly under the situation of high supply and demand, but there are concerns about demand. Once the demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and the price will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore was running weakly, with a daily decline of 1.00%, showing a contraction in volume and open interest. At present, although the supply of iron ore has decreased, the inventory is high, and the demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak. Coupled with the disturbance of a steel mill production accident over the weekend, the weight of the industrial logic has begun to increase. The iron ore price is under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the newly - added government debt scale was 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared with the previous year. The fiscal deficit rate was about 4%, an increase of one percentage point compared with the previous year, exceeding the average level of previous years [7]. - In 2025, the air - conditioning market showed a trend of falling prices and rising sales volume, with the retail rhythm advancing, and the annual trend was high in the front and low in the back. In 2026, due to the new national subsidy policy and the Spring Festival holiday in mid - February, the industry's production scheduling was seasonally misaligned. The production scheduling plan in February decreased by double - digits year - on - year. The domestic sales production scheduling was 603,000 units, a year - on - year decline of 13.8%, and the export production scheduling was 751,000 units, a year - on - year decline of 12.7% [8]. - Australia postponed the release of the basic fact report and final arbitration recommendation for the sunset review of anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on precision steel pipes imported from China [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,250 yuan, 3,170 yuan, and 3,329 yuan respectively, with a decrease of 10 yuan, 10 yuan, and 7 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,180 yuan, and 3,300 yuan respectively, with a decrease of 10 yuan, 10 yuan, and 8 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,950 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,110 yuan. The volume - screw price difference was 20 yuan, and the screw - scrap price difference was 1,140 yuan, with a decrease of 10 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 794 yuan, a decrease of 8 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 773 yuan, with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 7.47 yuan, an increase of 0.24 yuan; the sea freight from Brazil was 19.61 yuan, an increase of 0.20 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.09 yuan, a decrease of 0.83 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 104.45 yuan, a decrease of 1.70 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,111 yuan, with a decline of 1.18%. The highest price was 3,147 yuan, the lowest price was 3,110 yuan, the trading volume was 936,583 lots, a decrease of 119,659 lots, and the open interest was 1,741,235 lots, an increase of 13,280 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,276 yuan, with a decline of 0.97%. The highest price was 3,307 yuan, the lowest price was 3,275 yuan, the trading volume was 471,822 lots, a decrease of 14,947 lots, and the open interest was 1,486,145 lots, a decrease of 15,864 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 789.5 yuan, with a decline of 1.00%. The highest price was 798.0 yuan, the lowest price was 778.0 yuan, the trading volume was 362,703 lots, a decrease of 33,598 lots, and the open interest was 586,412 lots, a decrease of 29,929 lots [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report presents the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including historical data from multiple years [14][15][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: It shows the inventory of 45 ports in the country, including the inventory volume, inventory change, and seasonal inventory. It also presents the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills and the iron concentrate powder inventory of domestic mines [22][23][26]. - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: It includes the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profit - making steel mill ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][32][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand of rebar have changed. The production of construction steel mills is weakly stable, and the weekly output of rebar has decreased slightly. However, the profit per ton of the variety is acceptable, and there is still a possibility of increasing production in the future. The supply is unlikely to continue to shrink, and the positive effect of low supply is not strong. The demand for rebar has improved, with a weekly increase of 153,800 tons, but the high - frequency daily trading volume is sluggish, and its sustainability is questionable. The demand will continue the seasonal weakness and continue to drag down the steel price. In the short term, it will continue the weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil is stable, and the inventory reduction has expanded. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has decreased by 21,500 tons. The supply has shrunk again but is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is significantly higher than in previous years, with large supply pressure. The demand for hot - rolled coil has good resilience, with a weekly increase of 10,400 tons in apparent demand. However, the contradictions in cold - rolled products are accumulating, and the export performance is average, so there are concerns about the demand. Once the demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and the price will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory has increased significantly. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has weakened. The daily average molten iron output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly last week. The profit situation of steel mills has improved limitedly, and the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating. The ore demand will remain weak, and the relatively positive factor is that steel mills will restock before the festival. The arrival at ports has declined from a high level, and the shipments of miners have decreased again. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will decline. The domestic ore supply is increasing, and the ore supply continues the seasonal contraction. The short - term iron ore price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rose and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.44%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Supported by the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the rebar price rebounded from a low level. However, supply continued to increase while demand was weak, leading to the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. The price of rebar in the off - season remained under pressure, with cost support being a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.48%, also showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Currently, the commodity sentiment is positive, and combined with the strong trend of raw materials, the hot - rolled coil price rebounded from a low level. But the supply - increase and demand - weak situation has not improved the fundamentals, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain a fluctuating state, and beware of the trading logic returning to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fell from a high level, with a daily decrease of 0.37%, and both volume and open interest decreased. At present, the market sentiment is positive, and the iron ore price remains at a high level. However, the supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the upward driving force needs to be tracked. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and beware of the trading logic returning to the industrial side [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the average annual operating rate of excavators in China was 56.9%. The average working hours of major construction machinery products were 926 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 6.15%. The operating rate of major construction machinery products was 55.4%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.77 percentage points [7]. - In 2025, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 30 cities reached 214 million square meters, a new high in the past five years, mainly driven by price - for - volume factors. The average transaction price of second - hand housing in 30 cities retreated by about 39% from the previous high, and the median price decline of popular second - hand housing communities was about 26.07%. In Shanghai, 693 high - end second - hand residential properties worth over 30 million yuan were sold in 2025, accounting for 43% of the national market in this segment [8]. - A Brazilian court has ruled to resume the environmental permit process for the expansion project of Samarco's iron ore mine in Minas Gerais. The project was previously halted due to environmental permit disputes. Samarco's current annual production capacity is about 15 million tons, and the expansion plan aims to achieve medium - and long - term production capacity recovery [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290, 3,210, and 3,352 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290, 3,220, and 3,321 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,090. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 0, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 [10]. - The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 815, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 787. The sea freight from Australia was 8.18, and from Brazil was 22.06. The SGX swap price (current month) was 108.85, and the Platts index (CFR) was 109.25 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,168, with a daily increase of 0.44%. The trading volume was 1,350,602, a decrease of 586,620, and the open interest was 1,781,802, an increase of 40,419 [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,317, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The trading volume was 696,880, a decrease of 246,626, and the open interest was 1,440,895, an increase of 63,008 [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 813.0, with a daily decrease of 0.37%. The trading volume was 442,605, a decrease of 48,010, and the open interest was 636,674, a decrease of 29,907 [12]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, national 45 - port iron ore inventories (including inventory and its seasonal changes, and inventory month - on - month changes), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [14][19]. - It also shows charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. The inventory has increased significantly, and construction steel mills have continued to resume production. The weekly output of rebar increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month, and the supply continued to rise with room for further increase. The demand for rebar continued to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. Although the high - frequency transactions increased due to holiday factors, both the apparent demand and high - frequency transactions were at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remained unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern changed little. Plate steel mills' production stabilized. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month, and the supply continued to rise and remained at a relatively high level. With a high inventory level, the supply pressure was not relieved, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. The demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month. The high - frequency daily transactions were at a low level. Although the high - level production of downstream cold - rolled products provided some support for hot - rolled coil demand, industrial contradictions were accumulating, and export performance was average, so there were concerns about demand. It is expected that the trend will maintain a fluctuating state [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken, and the inventory reached a high level. Steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore began to rise. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increased slightly last week. However, the improvement in steel mills' profitability was limited, and the steel market entered the off - season, making it difficult to support a large - scale resumption of production by steel mills. The improvement in iron ore demand was limited, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by steel mills was a relative positive factor. At the same time, the port arrivals rebounded again, and the shipments from overseas miners declined as expected. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals are expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Even though domestic mine production was seasonally weak, the overall supply remained at a high level. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.40%. Currently, rebar supply has declined, but demand has also decreased. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate and find the bottom. Pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.22%. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil has declined from a high level, but demand is also poor. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, and hot - rolled coil prices continue to be under pressure. Given the cost support, the subsequent trend will show a pattern of fluctuating and finding the bottom, and the trend will be weaker than that of building materials. Breaking the deadlock depends on steel mills increasing production cuts [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.65%. Currently, iron ore supply remains high, while demand continues to decline. In the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, industrial contradictions in the ore industry lead to accelerated inventory accumulation, and ore prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the short - term market recovery. The subsequent trend will continue to be weakly fluctuating. Pay attention to the performance of steel products [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In October 2025, the average monthly working hours of major construction machinery products in China was 80.9 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03% and a month - on - month increase of 3.62%. The monthly average working hours of excavators was 68.6 hours. The monthly start - up rate of major construction machinery products was 55%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The start - up rate of excavators was 55.1% [7]. - In October 2025, the total bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.9%. Affected by the low base in the same period last year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises increased significantly. From the perspective of financing structure, the credit bond financing of the real estate industry was 32.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 50.7%, accounting for 63.8%; overseas bond financing was 2.85 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6%; ABS financing was 15.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 115.8%, accounting for 30.6%. The average bond financing interest rate was 2.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points. In the first 10 months of this year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises was 488.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [8]. - In the third quarter of 2025, the iron ore production of Canadian mining company IOC was 4.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The year - on - year significant increase was mainly due to the impact of a 11 - day shutdown after forest fires in the third quarter of 2024. The salable iron ore production (concentrate + pellets) was 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 6% [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,220 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,318 yuan respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,170 yuan; the coil - rebar price difference was 110 yuan; the rebar - scrap price difference was 990 yuan [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 785 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 803 yuan; the sea freight from Australia was 9.63 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.15 yuan; the SGX swap (current month) was 104.33 yuan; the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.90 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,037 | 0.40 | 3,042 | 3,017 | 884,740 | - 264,825 | 2,020,353 | - 11,428 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,256 | 0.22 | 3,271 | 3,241 | 462,037 | 14,203 | 1,365,348 | - 7,743 | | Iron Ore | - | 777.5 | 0.65 | 779.5 | 771.0 | 259,605 | - 22,010 | 537,495 | - 7,164 | [14] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17][23]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mills [22][25]. - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: There are charts showing the blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace start - up rate, profitability of steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [31][32][35]. 3.5后市研判（Translated as Future Market Judgment） - **Rebar**: Both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 40,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk again but is still at a relatively high level this year, with high inventory levels and supply pressure not relieved. At the same time, rebar demand has weakened as expected, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 136,600 tons month - on - month. Speculative demand is weak due to weak steel prices. Both are at low levels in recent years, and downstream conditions have not improved. As the off - season approaches, demand is likely to continue to weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate and find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. Affected by production restrictions, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 54,000 tons month - on - month, with a limited decline, and it is still at a relatively high level this year. High inventory levels and unrelieved supply pressure continue to suppress hot - rolled coil prices. At the same time, hot - rolled coil demand has begun to weaken, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 175,900 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions remaining sluggish. The production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has continued to decline, and industrial contradictions have not been alleviated, continuing to drag down hot - rolled coils. In addition, the improvement in external demand is limited, and the resilience of hot - rolled coil demand is weakening. It is expected that the subsequent trend will show a pattern of fluctuating and finding the bottom, and the trend will be weaker than that of building materials. Breaking the deadlock depends on steel mills increasing production cuts [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Affected by production restrictions, the terminal demand for ore has continued to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, and the decline continued to expand, indicating an obvious trend of weakening demand. Considering that the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, coupled with frequent seasonal production - restriction disturbances, ore demand is expected to continue to decline, and weak demand is likely to drag down ore prices. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has rebounded as expected, while the shipments of overseas miners have declined. Both are at relatively high levels, and domestic ore supply has increased, increasing the supply pressure of ore. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to be weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [40].