投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 锰硅月报 产业矛盾待解，锰硅低位震荡 核心观点 假期临近锰硅产业矛盾累积，现实逻辑主导下 2 月锰硅期现价格低 位震荡运行。 节前钢厂补库积极，厂内库存持续回升，但并未缓解锰硅生产企业 库存压力，其库存水平高位攀升，且多集中在主产区，且逐步转换成交 易所仓单，整体库存居高不下，继续抑制锰硅价格走势。 假期锰硅企业生产平稳，产量收缩态势未延续，且厂内库存高企， 叠加新增产能陆续投放，供应压力有待缓解。相对利好则是原料价格稳 中有升，成本支 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-02-25 产业矛盾累积，成本支撑减弱 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾仍存，纯碱偏弱运行 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场分析 风险 玻璃方面：昨日期货盘面偏强震荡，尾盘有所回收。现货方面，沙河地区工厂出货较好，华东市场交投一般，华 中市场价格暂稳，华南市场除个别企业针对个别基地存满量优惠外，多数价格暂稳，东北市场价格暂时稳定。昨 日浮法玻璃现货价格1269元/吨，环比上一交易日持平。供需与逻辑：本轮偏弱的地产数据压制了玻璃反弹高度， 但即将步入玻璃传统消费旺季，关注后续是否能形成阶段性的消费回升和库存的持续去化，目前处于近月资金博 弈阶段，谨慎对待当前的价格。 纯碱方面：昨日期货盘面偏强震荡，尾盘有所回收。现货方面，国内纯碱市场走势弱，价格阴跌，窄幅调整，企 业库存去库幅度放缓，逐步转向累库。最新纯碱开工率83.83%，装置开工正常，暂无波动。供需与逻辑：需求端 来看，浮法玻璃受地产数据影响，表现薄弱。随着春季检修结束，纯碱库存有进一步增加压力，长期来看，纯碱 供需仍偏宽松。 策略 硅锰方面：：昨日锰硅期货节后开市震荡调整，单日增仓41065。假期结束开市第一天 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-02-25 产业矛盾累积，成本支撑减弱 钢材：产业矛盾累积，成本支撑减弱 市场分析 昨日盘面整体走弱，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3027元/吨，下跌0.92%；热卷主力合约收于3195元/吨，下跌0.84%。 现货方面，昨日国内钢材市场持稳运行，下游各地基本未有明显开工，报价稀少，价格多数地区持稳。 供需逻辑： 目前，钢材在供稳需弱局面下产业矛盾持续累积，库存大幅增加，钢价继续承压运行。板材供应压力未退，而需 求延续季节性走弱，基本面延续弱势运行，价格继续承压。总体来说，五大材库存维持累库，在需求尚未启动的 情况下，累库现象仍将维持，原料价格走弱，短期内钢价上涨动力不足，钢价短期跟随成本运行，需重点关注累 库情况以及节后需求恢复情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 策略 期权：无 风险 地缘政治、库存变化、需求复苏、成本支撑等 铁矿：全球发运稳增，矿价偏弱运行 市场分析 昨日铁矿石价格小幅震荡下行。现货方面，2月24日唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格较前一工作日小幅下跌。贸易 商报价积极性一般，钢厂询盘较少，目前现货市场成交冷清。2月24日全国主港铁矿累计成交40.5万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views - **螺纹钢**: The main contract price fluctuated and recorded a daily increase of 0.13%. The pre - holiday situation of weak supply and demand remained unchanged. The fundamental contradictions of rebar continued to accumulate, inventory increased significantly, and steel prices continued to be under pressure. The positive factors were policy expectations and cost support. It was expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the resumption rhythm of short - process steel mills after the holiday [5]. - **热轧卷板**: The main contract price fluctuated and recorded a daily decline of 0%. The supply pressure of hot - rolled coils did not subside, while demand continued to weaken seasonally. The fundamentals were weak, and prices continued to be under pressure. The positive factor was the post - holiday policy expectation. It was expected to continue the weak and volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the demand recovery after the holiday [5]. - **铁矿石**: The main contract price declined weakly, recording a daily decline of 2.36%. Currently, iron ore demand improved, while supply contracted in the short term. The fundamentals of ore changed, but the sustainability of the improvement was questionable. Under the weak reality, ore prices continued to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of finished products during the holiday and the shipping situation of mines [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In January, the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was 0.3%, the same as last month; the decline in second - tier cities was 0.3%, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points; the decline in third - tier cities was 0.4%, the same as last month. The month - on - month decline in second - hand residential sales prices in first - tier cities was 0.5%, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points; the declines in second - and third - tier cities were 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, narrowing by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points [7]. - **Shipbuilding**: Hengli Shipbuilding (Dalian) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co., Ltd., signed contracts for 17 ships, with a contract value of approximately 1.6 - 1.8 billion US dollars (about 11.041 - 12.421 billion RMB) [8]. - **Steel**: Fujian Province announced the list of restricted smelting equipment of steel enterprises subject to differential electricity prices in 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coils (4.75mm) were 3,304 yuan and 3,279 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billets was 2,900 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 50 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,030 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 746 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767 yuan. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 8.81 yuan and 23.39 yuan respectively. The SGX swap price was 100.05, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 99.60 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,055 | 0.13 | 555,957 | 1,942,442 | | Hot - Rolled Coils | 3,222 | 0.00 | 277,887 | 1,482,223 | | Iron Ore | 746.0 | - 2.36 | 239,453 | 494,550 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report presented the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils [14][15][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: It showed the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including inventory and its seasonal changes and month - on - month changes [24][25][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: The report included the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [29][31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **螺纹钢**: Supply and demand continued to weaken, inventory increased significantly, and short - process steel mills significantly reduced production. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 22.52 tons. Demand was also weak, and the high - frequency demand index was at the lowest level in the same lunar calendar period in recent years. It was expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [37]. - **热轧卷板**: Supply and demand continued to weaken seasonally, inventory increased, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.40 tons. Demand continued to weaken, and the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 9.35 tons. It was expected to continue the weak and volatile operation [38]. - **铁矿石**: The supply - demand pattern changed. Steel mills resumed production before the holiday, and ore terminal consumption continued to rise. However, steel mill profitability was poor, and the increase in ore demand was limited. Overseas supply contracted in the short term, but the sustainability was weak. Ore prices continued to decline under pressure [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the spot and futures prices of ferrosilicon manganese oscillated and declined under the dominance of industrial logic. Although the prices once rose due to the warming of the commodity market sentiment and the increase in the cost side, the supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese did not improve substantially, leading to the price decline again. - As the Spring Festival approached, steel mills replenished their stocks as expected, but it did not relieve the inventory pressure of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises. The inventory remained high, mainly concentrated in the main production areas, which may suppress the futures price. - The high inventory in the ferrosilicon manganese market, the narrowing of enterprise losses, and the continuous release of new production capacity mean that the supply pressure has not subsided, which will significantly inhibit the upward movement of ferrosilicon manganese prices. - At the beginning of the new year, steel mill production stabilized. The increased production enthusiasm of construction steel mills brought marginal improvement in ferrosilicon manganese demand. However, the limited improvement in steel mill profitability and the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the off - season steel market led to weak production enthusiasm, and the demand for ferrosilicon manganese continued to operate weakly and stably. - Looking ahead, the operating logic of the ferrosilicon manganese market will switch between industrial logic and optimistic sentiment. During the Spring Festival, industrial contradictions are difficult to ease, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes of manganese ore [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Ferrosilicon Manganese Oscillated and Declined in January - At the beginning of the new year, the market operating logic returned to the industrial side, and the ferrosilicon manganese price was under pressure again and fell back, giving up most of the previous gains. - The previous rise in ferrosilicon manganese prices was driven by the warm sentiment in the commodity market and the significant increase in upstream costs. However, the supply - demand pattern did not improve substantially, with high enterprise inventory and slow destocking. - As of January 28, the futures price of the main ferrosilicon manganese contract closed at 5,832 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase to 6,074 yuan/ton during the period, a 1.49% decline from the end - of - last - month value. The spot price showed a similar trend, with a smaller fluctuation range than the futures price. The latest tender price of mainstream steel mills in January increased slightly [8]. 2. Ferrosilicon Manganese Inventory Remained High - As of January 23, the total inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises was 373,000 tons, a slight decrease of 13,000 tons from the end - of - last - month value, still at an absolute high level, 148% higher than the same period last year. - The inventory in different regions increased or decreased in January. The inventory in the main production area of Ningxia continued to rise, reaching a new high, with a year - on - year increase of 305%. There is a risk of the inventory being converted into exchange warehouse receipts. - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills replenished their stocks as expected, and the inventory available days increased significantly. However, it did not effectively reduce the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises, indicating obvious industrial contradictions. - As of January 27, the exchange warehouse receipts of ferrosilicon manganese increased. If the price difference is appropriate, enterprises may actively hedge on the futures market, which may put pressure on the futures price [18][26][29]. 3. Limited Supply Contraction of Ferrosilicon Manganese - In December, the production of ferrosilicon manganese enterprises was weak and stable, with little change in output. In 2025, the cumulative output of domestic ferrosilicon manganese was 10.1264 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.22%. The monthly output reached a maximum of 915,700 tons in October. - The production enterprise's operating rate decreased significantly in 2025, but the output did not decrease significantly due to the release of new production capacity. In 2026, the to - be - put - into - production capacity of ferrosilicon manganese is as high as 3.0865 million tons. - As of January 23, the operating rate and daily output of ferrosilicon manganese enterprises rebounded, with a narrowing decline compared to the end - of - last - month value. The daily output was slightly lower than last year. - The previous rise in ferrosilicon manganese prices was driven by cost increases, mainly due to the rise in manganese ore prices. However, the cost support effect needs to be tracked, as the supply - demand pattern of manganese ore has not improved substantially, and the sustainability of cost increases is questionable [31][34][37]. 4. Weak and Stable Demand for Ferrosilicon Manganese - Since 2026, the resumption of work and production in domestic steel mills has continued to advance, and the demand for ferrosilicon manganese has improved marginally. The production of short - process steel mills has been active, driving an increase in domestic steel output. - The improvement in downstream steel production has led to an increase in the demand for ferrosilicon manganese. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon manganese converted from five major steel products has increased to 116,900 tons, slightly higher than the same period last year, but still at a low level. - There are concerns about the future growth space of ferrosilicon manganese demand. The profitability of steel mills has limited recovery, and the steel market is in the traditional off - season, with accumulating supply - demand contradictions. The demand is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably [56]. 5. Outlook for the Future - The ferrosilicon manganese market will switch between industrial logic and optimistic sentiment. During the Spring Festival, industrial contradictions are difficult to ease, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes of manganese ore [64].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 1.18%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹需求虽有所改善，但持续性存疑，而供应弱稳运行，基本面延续季 节性弱势，淡季钢价承压运行，短期延续震荡偏弱运行态势，关注钢厂 生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走弱，录得 0.97%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，供需双高局面下热卷基本面平稳运行，但需求存有隐忧，一旦其转 弱则产业矛盾易积累，届时价格将承压走弱，重点关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rose and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.44%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Supported by the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the rebar price rebounded from a low level. However, supply continued to increase while demand was weak, leading to the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. The price of rebar in the off - season remained under pressure, with cost support being a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.48%, also showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Currently, the commodity sentiment is positive, and combined with the strong trend of raw materials, the hot - rolled coil price rebounded from a low level. But the supply - increase and demand - weak situation has not improved the fundamentals, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain a fluctuating state, and beware of the trading logic returning to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fell from a high level, with a daily decrease of 0.37%, and both volume and open interest decreased. At present, the market sentiment is positive, and the iron ore price remains at a high level. However, the supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the upward driving force needs to be tracked. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and beware of the trading logic returning to the industrial side [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the average annual operating rate of excavators in China was 56.9%. The average working hours of major construction machinery products were 926 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 6.15%. The operating rate of major construction machinery products was 55.4%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.77 percentage points [7]. - In 2025, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 30 cities reached 214 million square meters, a new high in the past five years, mainly driven by price - for - volume factors. The average transaction price of second - hand housing in 30 cities retreated by about 39% from the previous high, and the median price decline of popular second - hand housing communities was about 26.07%. In Shanghai, 693 high - end second - hand residential properties worth over 30 million yuan were sold in 2025, accounting for 43% of the national market in this segment [8]. - A Brazilian court has ruled to resume the environmental permit process for the expansion project of Samarco's iron ore mine in Minas Gerais. The project was previously halted due to environmental permit disputes. Samarco's current annual production capacity is about 15 million tons, and the expansion plan aims to achieve medium - and long - term production capacity recovery [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290, 3,210, and 3,352 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290, 3,220, and 3,321 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,090. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 0, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 [10]. - The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 815, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 787. The sea freight from Australia was 8.18, and from Brazil was 22.06. The SGX swap price (current month) was 108.85, and the Platts index (CFR) was 109.25 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,168, with a daily increase of 0.44%. The trading volume was 1,350,602, a decrease of 586,620, and the open interest was 1,781,802, an increase of 40,419 [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,317, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The trading volume was 696,880, a decrease of 246,626, and the open interest was 1,440,895, an increase of 63,008 [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 813.0, with a daily decrease of 0.37%. The trading volume was 442,605, a decrease of 48,010, and the open interest was 636,674, a decrease of 29,907 [12]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, national 45 - port iron ore inventories (including inventory and its seasonal changes, and inventory month - on - month changes), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [14][19]. - It also shows charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. The inventory has increased significantly, and construction steel mills have continued to resume production. The weekly output of rebar increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month, and the supply continued to rise with room for further increase. The demand for rebar continued to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. Although the high - frequency transactions increased due to holiday factors, both the apparent demand and high - frequency transactions were at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remained unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern changed little. Plate steel mills' production stabilized. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month, and the supply continued to rise and remained at a relatively high level. With a high inventory level, the supply pressure was not relieved, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. The demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month. The high - frequency daily transactions were at a low level. Although the high - level production of downstream cold - rolled products provided some support for hot - rolled coil demand, industrial contradictions were accumulating, and export performance was average, so there were concerns about demand. It is expected that the trend will maintain a fluctuating state [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken, and the inventory reached a high level. Steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore began to rise. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increased slightly last week. However, the improvement in steel mills' profitability was limited, and the steel market entered the off - season, making it difficult to support a large - scale resumption of production by steel mills. The improvement in iron ore demand was limited, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by steel mills was a relative positive factor. At the same time, the port arrivals rebounded again, and the shipments from overseas miners declined as expected. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals are expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Even though domestic mine production was seasonally weak, the overall supply remained at a high level. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.40%. Currently, rebar supply has declined, but demand has also decreased. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate and find the bottom. Pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.22%. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil has declined from a high level, but demand is also poor. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, and hot - rolled coil prices continue to be under pressure. Given the cost support, the subsequent trend will show a pattern of fluctuating and finding the bottom, and the trend will be weaker than that of building materials. Breaking the deadlock depends on steel mills increasing production cuts [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.65%. Currently, iron ore supply remains high, while demand continues to decline. In the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, industrial contradictions in the ore industry lead to accelerated inventory accumulation, and ore prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the short - term market recovery. The subsequent trend will continue to be weakly fluctuating. Pay attention to the performance of steel products [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In October 2025, the average monthly working hours of major construction machinery products in China was 80.9 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03% and a month - on - month increase of 3.62%. The monthly average working hours of excavators was 68.6 hours. The monthly start - up rate of major construction machinery products was 55%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The start - up rate of excavators was 55.1% [7]. - In October 2025, the total bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.9%. Affected by the low base in the same period last year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises increased significantly. From the perspective of financing structure, the credit bond financing of the real estate industry was 32.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 50.7%, accounting for 63.8%; overseas bond financing was 2.85 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6%; ABS financing was 15.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 115.8%, accounting for 30.6%. The average bond financing interest rate was 2.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points. In the first 10 months of this year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises was 488.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [8]. - In the third quarter of 2025, the iron ore production of Canadian mining company IOC was 4.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The year - on - year significant increase was mainly due to the impact of a 11 - day shutdown after forest fires in the third quarter of 2024. The salable iron ore production (concentrate + pellets) was 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 6% [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,220 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,318 yuan respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,170 yuan; the coil - rebar price difference was 110 yuan; the rebar - scrap price difference was 990 yuan [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 785 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 803 yuan; the sea freight from Australia was 9.63 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.15 yuan; the SGX swap (current month) was 104.33 yuan; the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.90 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,037 | 0.40 | 3,042 | 3,017 | 884,740 | - 264,825 | 2,020,353 | - 11,428 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,256 | 0.22 | 3,271 | 3,241 | 462,037 | 14,203 | 1,365,348 | - 7,743 | | Iron Ore | - | 777.5 | 0.65 | 779.5 | 771.0 | 259,605 | - 22,010 | 537,495 | - 7,164 | [14] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17][23]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mills [22][25]. - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: There are charts showing the blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace start - up rate, profitability of steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [31][32][35]. 3.5后市研判（Translated as Future Market Judgment） - **Rebar**: Both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 40,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk again but is still at a relatively high level this year, with high inventory levels and supply pressure not relieved. At the same time, rebar demand has weakened as expected, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 136,600 tons month - on - month. Speculative demand is weak due to weak steel prices. Both are at low levels in recent years, and downstream conditions have not improved. As the off - season approaches, demand is likely to continue to weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate and find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. Affected by production restrictions, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 54,000 tons month - on - month, with a limited decline, and it is still at a relatively high level this year. High inventory levels and unrelieved supply pressure continue to suppress hot - rolled coil prices. At the same time, hot - rolled coil demand has begun to weaken, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 175,900 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions remaining sluggish. The production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has continued to decline, and industrial contradictions have not been alleviated, continuing to drag down hot - rolled coils. In addition, the improvement in external demand is limited, and the resilience of hot - rolled coil demand is weakening. It is expected that the subsequent trend will show a pattern of fluctuating and finding the bottom, and the trend will be weaker than that of building materials. Breaking the deadlock depends on steel mills increasing production cuts [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Affected by production restrictions, the terminal demand for ore has continued to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, and the decline continued to expand, indicating an obvious trend of weakening demand. Considering that the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, coupled with frequent seasonal production - restriction disturbances, ore demand is expected to continue to decline, and weak demand is likely to drag down ore prices. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has rebounded as expected, while the shipments of overseas miners have declined. Both are at relatively high levels, and domestic ore supply has increased, increasing the supply pressure of ore. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to be weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.85%. The fundamentals are weak, with industrial contradictions accumulating, high inventory de - stocking pressure under weak demand, and steel prices under pressure. Cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate and find the bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][35]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.86%. Currently, supply is high, demand has potential risks, industrial contradictions are accumulating, inventory de - stocking pressure is large, and prices are under pressure. There is a need to guard against the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][35]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore trended weakly, with a daily decline of 1.46%. Supply pressure remains, market sentiment has weakened, and high - valued ore prices have declined under pressure. However, high - level rigid demand for ore provides support, and there is resistance to downward movement. Before steel mills reduce production, ore prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **CPI and PPI in September**: The core CPI's year - on - year increase continued to expand, and the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow. In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. The PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [6]. - **Heavy - truck sales in September**: In September 2025, China's truck market sold 312,000 vehicles, a 15% month - on - month increase and a 29% year - on - year increase. The heavy - truck market sold 105,600 vehicles, a 15% month - on - month increase and an 83% year - on - year increase, with the year - on - year increase expanding by 36 percentage points compared to August [7]. - **Brazil terminates anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tire steel cord**: On October 14, 2025, Brazil's Department of Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services announced the termination of the anti - dumping investigation on tire steel cord originating from China at the request of the applicant [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average decreased by 20, 20, and 8 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average decreased by 10, 20, and 6 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports decreased by 2, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates increased by 0.12 and 0.32 respectively, the SGX swap (current month) decreased by 1.81, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) decreased by 3.00 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,034, a decline of 0.85%. The trading volume was 1,018,136 with a decrease of 139,971, and the open interest was 2,051,545 with an increase of 60,083 [11]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,212, a decline of 0.86%. The trading volume was 501,197 with a decrease of 31,727, and the open interest was 1,469,405 with an increase of 17,676 [11]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 776.5, a decline of 1.46%. The trading volume was 305,761 with a decrease of 219,731, and the open interest was 508,365 with an increase of 8,566 [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [14][16][24] - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 45 ports' seasonal inventory, 247 steel mills' inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [21][22][26] - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 independent arc - furnace steel mills for building materials [28][30][34] 3.5 Future Market Outlook - **Rebar**: After the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. Supply decreased but the space for further reduction during the peak season is questionable, and inventory is high. Demand is weak, and it is expected that prices will continue to oscillate and find the bottom, with attention paid to demand performance [35] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Supply is at a high level and inventory is high, while demand has potential risks. The price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35] - **Iron ore**: Supply and demand have changed. Demand is still okay, but the positive effect may weaken. Supply pressure has increased. Before steel mills reduce production, ore prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with attention paid to steel performance [36]