投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 11 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿承压回落 核心观点 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.03%日跌幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供应重回高位，而需求表现强劲，基本面表现平稳，支撑价格 相对偏强运行，但需求改善力度有待跟踪，高供应下一旦需求走弱则产 业矛盾仍易累积，届时价格再度承压下行，重点关注需求变化情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡走弱，录得 0.81%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，铁矿石需求韧性尚可，且供应短期收缩，基本面表现平稳，继续支 撑矿价高位偏强震荡运行，但估值相对偏高，上行空间谨慎乐观，关注 钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.51%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 供需双弱局面下螺纹钢基本面表现偏弱，产业矛盾持续累积，钢价易承 压运行，相对利好则是成本 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated upwards with a daily increase of 1.06%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar have weakened, the fundamentals have not improved, inventory has been increasing, and steel prices are under pressure. With the relatively favorable peak - season expectation and rising costs, steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated higher with a daily increase of 1.03%, and trading volume and open interest expanded. At present, production has decreased due to production restrictions but can recover quickly. In contrast, demand resilience is weakening, the supply - demand imbalance in the hot - rolled coil industry continues to accumulate, inventory growth has widened, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively favorable factors are peak - season expectation and cost situation, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.77%, and trading volume and open interest shrank. Currently, iron ore demand is declining while supply is rising, the fundamentals of iron ore are likely to weaken, and high - valued ore prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively favorable factors are peak - season expectation and the intervention of arbitrage funds. The short - term ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5 with a term of 3 months to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [6]. - The expected tariff increase in the US led to a significant expansion of the US trade deficit in July. The trade deficit in July expanded to $78.3 billion, significantly higher than that in June. The import in July was $358.8 billion, a month - on - month increase of 5.9%; the export was $280.5 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The total trade deficit of goods and services increased by 32.5% month - on - month [7]. - In late August 2025, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 1.947 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% compared to the previous period; the average daily output of pig iron was 1.827 million tons, a decrease of 5.1%; the average daily output of steel products was 2.138 million tons, an increase of 4.4% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Rebar**: The spot prices in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,283 yuan [9]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The spot prices in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,380 yuan and 3,320 yuan respectively, and the national average price was 3,431 yuan [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 782 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 792 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | 3,143 | 1.06 | 1,385,167 | 1,737,894 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,340 | 1.03 | 534,944 | 1,300,035 | | Iron ore | 789.5 | 0.77 | 289,453 | 501,397 | [11] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: The report provides charts of weekly changes in rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) [14][16][22]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts of national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory are included [20][24][30]. - **Steel mill production situation**: Charts of 247 - steel - mill blast furnace开工率 and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace开工率, and 75 - building - material independent electric - arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation are provided [25][29][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed much. Production of construction steel mills has weakened, and rebar weekly output decreased by 18,800 tons. Demand is weak, and both weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions are at low levels. Steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom [32]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened. During the parade, production was restricted, and weekly output decreased by 105,000 tons. Demand continues to be weak, and the demand resilience is weakening. Steel prices will continue to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [33]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. Due to production restrictions, terminal consumption of iron ore has decreased significantly, and supply has increased. Ore prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - The main contract price of rebar oscillated, recording a daily decline of 0.16%. With both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, inventory has continued to increase, and steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly, recording a daily decline of 0.36%. The demand for hot - rolled coil has some resilience, but the fundamentals have not substantially improved, and the market sentiment is poor. It is expected to continue the oscillating and weakening trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, recording a daily increase of 0.06%. The demand for iron ore has weakened, while the supply has increased steadily. The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected that the ore price will be under pressure and oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - As of the end of August, the total amount of proposed use of special bonds to acquire idle stock land in 26 provinces and cities exceeded 610 billion yuan, and the actual issuance of special bonds was about 175.2 billion yuan. The bond - issuing progress accelerated in the third quarter [6]. - In the first half of 2025, nine major construction central enterprises all achieved profitability. The total revenue was 3,331.929 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.39%; the total net profit was 77.727 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.52% [7]. - In August 2025, 14 steel projects started or were put into production, including projects of Jinding Steel and Anhui Liugang starting, and projects of Quzhou Yuanli Metal, Hongyi New Materials, and Zhongnan Co., Ltd. being put into production [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products are presented, along with their price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,290 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) was 3,424 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures are provided. For example, the closing price of rebar futures was 3,117 yuan, a decrease of 0.16% [11]. 4. Related Charts - Include charts of steel inventory (rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory), and steel mill production (247 - sample steel mill blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization rate, etc.) [13][18][26]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply has increased to a high level this year, and demand has improved slightly but remains at a low level in recent years. The fundamentals have not improved, inventory has increased, and steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [34]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply has slightly shrunk, and demand is weakly stable. There is some demand resilience, but the fundamentals have not substantially improved. It is expected to continue the oscillating and weakening trend [34]. - Iron ore: Demand has weakened, and supply has increased steadily. The fundamentals have weakened, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected that the ore price will be under pressure and oscillate weakly [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.03%. Demand improved but its sustainability is questionable, while supply pressure is increasing. Inventory continues to rise and the increase is expanding. Steel prices in the off - season are under pressure. With the dual influence of production restriction expectations and strong coking coal, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price declined with a daily decrease of 0.35%. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continue to weaken, and inventory increases. Although there are continuous production restriction disturbances, the price is expected to continue to run in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily decrease of 0.25%. Ore demand has good resilience, supporting high - level operation of ore prices. However, ore supply is recovering, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation and consolidation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - China's total goods trade import and export value in the first 7 months of 2025 was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, up 7.3%, and imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, down 1.6%. In July, the total import and export value was 3.91 trillion yuan, up 6.7% [6]. - Shanghai will launch the overall renovation project of urban villages in 2026, and complete the renovation of small - beam and thin - plate houses in 2027. It will also continue to carry out the renovation of old residential areas [7]. - In July 2025, China exported 983600 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative steel export was 6.7983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China imported 45200 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the cumulative steel import was 347600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and some other products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the national average price of rebar decreased by 2 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | 3231 | 0.03 | 1648650 | 1628167 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3440 | - 0.35 | 640048 | 1428587 | | Iron ore | 793.0 | - 0.25 | 199704 | 335365 | [11] Related Charts - Include charts of steel and iron ore inventory, steel mill production status, etc., such as steel inventory, iron ore inventory in 45 ports, 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operation rate and capacity utilization rate, etc. [13][18][27] 后市研判 - **Rebar**: Supply pressure increases, demand improvement lacks sustainability, inventory rises, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [36]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both weak, inventory increases, and prices are under pressure. However, due to production restriction disturbances, prices are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [35]. - **Iron ore**: Demand has resilience, but supply is increasing, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Ore prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [37].