2025 年 12 月 29 日 宏观经济 开局之年，周期向何处去 ——2026 年宏观经济展望 宏观深度研究 主要观点： 外部环境： 预计 2026 年美国经济短周期仍处于扩张阶段，再通胀概率较大。受减 税、加大投资、关税干扰减弱、降息等因素影响，经济增速 2.5%左右，高 于潜在增速，产出缺口继续扩张，美联储至多降息一次，不排除出现加息 预期。 通胀是美国选民最关注的议题之一，中期选举之前中美经贸关系将暂 时保持稳定。但是，美国可能采取多项措施打击转口贸易，同时中国和欧 盟等经济体的经贸冲突风险可能增加。 风险提示：财政、货币政策低于预期；"两重""两新"边际效应递减，效 果低于预期；房地产市场止跌回稳难度较大；美国通胀存在大幅上升风险； 地缘政治波动加剧。 邢曙光（分析师） xingshuguang@cctgsc.com.cn 登记编号：S0280520050003 钟 山（分析师） zhongshan01@cctgsc.com.cn 登记编号：S0280525060002 相关报告 中国政策： 宏观政策强调提质增效，托底经济的同时，不搞大水漫灌、大规模刺 激，为应对未来风险留有余地，确保政策可持续。预 ...

近日，中房集团公司原董事长、原国家房改课题组组长孟晓苏在社交平台上表示，对与房地产的信心缺 失，导致了中国房价房价走低。 孟晓苏表示，中国房地产市场有两个有效需求，一是，城镇化浪潮带来数亿新增市民，他们有居所需 求；二是，现有城镇居民要改善自己生活条件，这样的（改善）需求。 孟晓苏认为，现在房价为什么往下走，是因为一些地方抛售造成了需求的萎缩。他认为，这种萎缩是人 为造成的的，是因为预期不良导致需求被压抑了。 ...

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a new digital RMB framework and the continuation of proactive fiscal policies in 2026, aimed at enhancing financial support for economic growth [9][5]. Group 1: Digital RMB Framework - The new digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecosystem will officially be implemented on January 1, 2026 [9]. - The People's Bank of China has validated the feasibility and reliability of the digital RMB through over six years of research and four years of pilot programs, establishing a dual-layer operational structure involving the central bank and commercial financial institutions [10]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance announced that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue in 2026, focusing on expanding the fiscal expenditure envelope to ensure necessary spending [5][12]. - Key measures include optimizing the government bond tool mix, enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payment funds, and improving the structure of expenditures to support key areas [12]. Group 3: Cross-Border Financing - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notification to facilitate domestic enterprises in raising funds efficiently in overseas financial markets, including unifying foreign currency fund management policies and simplifying management procedures [10][11]. - The notification aims to reduce cross-border financing costs and enhance financial flexibility for enterprises, promoting the internationalization of the RMB [11]. Group 4: Real Estate Policy - Beijing has adjusted its real estate policies to relax purchasing restrictions for non-local residents and families with multiple children, allowing them to buy additional properties under certain conditions [15]. - This policy aligns with the central government's economic directives and aims to stimulate real estate market activity [15]. Group 5: Market Measures - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, with an estimated total reduction exceeding 1.9 billion yuan, aimed at lowering costs for listed companies and investors [16]. - These measures are intended to enhance market liquidity and support the real economy by reducing transaction costs [16][17]. Group 6: Currency Exchange Rate - The offshore RMB briefly surpassed the 7 yuan mark against the US dollar, reflecting a combination of external pressures easing and internal economic resilience [18]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a shift in market expectations regarding the US dollar, particularly in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [18].

2025年1至6月份，模塑科技的营业收入构成为：汽车产业占比92.83%，医疗产业占比3.48%，铸件占比 2.58%，房地产产业占比1.11%。 每经AI快讯，模塑科技（SZ 000700，收盘价：12.63元）12月29日晚间发布公告称，本次利润分配方案 以公司总股本约9.18亿股为基数，向全体股东每10股派发现金3.268元（含税），现金分红总额约3亿 元，本次分配不实施资本公积转增股本、不分红股，剩余未分配利润留待后续分配。股权登记日为2026 年1月7日。除权除息日为2026年1月8日。 截至发稿，模塑科技市值为116亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——绕开光刻机"卡脖子"，中国新型芯片问世！专访北大孙仲：支撑AI训练和 具身智能，可在28纳米及以上成熟工艺量产 （记者 王晓波） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rational thinking and professional discourse in the financial sector, highlighting the achievements of the "Yi Cai Hao" platform and the insights gathered from experts regarding the economic outlook for 2026 [2][3][4]. Group 1: Achievements of "Yi Cai Hao" - Over the past five years, the "Yi Cai Hao" platform has gathered more than 1,000 outstanding authors, contributing significantly to the discourse on economic issues [3]. - In 2025, the platform published over 700 in-depth articles and produced more than 1,500 videos, achieving over 60 million views [3]. - The "Annual Financial Thinker Ceremony" attracted 7.41 million participants, with a total dissemination flow of 40 million, indicating a strong public interest in rational economic discussions [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook for 2026 - A survey of 180 economists and researchers indicated that over 60% expect China's GDP growth target for 2026 to be between 4.5% and 5.0%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic stability and progress [4]. - 88.2% of experts believe that significant advancements in 2026 will occur in "technological innovation and industrial upgrading," with a focus on artificial intelligence, robotics, and semiconductor localization [5]. - New consumption engines are emerging, particularly in health care, cultural entertainment, and experiential consumption, which are seen as having about 70% potential recognition [5]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - Experts predict that the Federal Reserve will gradually enter a rate-cutting phase in 2026, contributing to a stable global liquidity environment [5]. - The anticipated stability of the U.S. dollar index will provide a crucial reference for understanding domestic policy space and market fluctuations [5]. Group 4: Values of Financial Thinkers - The selection criteria for the "Annual Financial Thinkers" emphasize genuine issues, true value, and accountability, highlighting the importance of independent thought and scientific rigor [6]. - The thinkers represent diverse fields, showcasing a blend of local insights and global perspectives, and are committed to addressing challenges while maintaining hope [6]. Group 5: Future Aspirations - The article concludes with a call for continued courage in thinking, sincerity in dialogue, and determination in action, suggesting that these qualities will help navigate uncertainties and uncover opportunities [7].

房地产终究回归本位了！ 网上曾爆出，当代年轻人面临的四座高成本大山：高房价耗光积蓄，高医疗不敢生病，高教育拼尽全力，高彩礼望而却步。 房价曾一度让多少中产望而却步，甚至赔上一生的幸福去还房贷。 近几年，房地产行业头部公司不断陷入泥沼，房价明显下滑，但是房地产行业仍旧是经济增长支柱。 而如今，"十五五"的战略规划部署给了大众明确答案。 未来5年，推动房地产高质量发展，成为人人翘首以盼的好消息。 这也意味着，未来5年，人人都可以买得起房，住得起房，全国房价猛涨的时代彻底结束了。 其次，商品房市场会更平稳，房价不会再大起大落，普通人买房更有底气。 中央提出，要建立"人、房、地、钱"的联动机制。 简单说就是根据人口变化来确定住房需求，再合理安排土地供应和金融资源，避免房子建多了浪费，也避免供不应求导致涨价。 同时还，还会清理住房消费里的不合理限制措施，让大家的购房需求能正常释放。 过去的二十多年中，中国房价一度达到顶峰。 有些打工者，为了能够购得一套房子，甚至得背负三代人的积蓄，即便如此，都不一定能够买得到称心的房源。 而之前房价之所以让人喘不过气，核心是行业走偏了方向，把房子当成了投资炒作的工具，而不是用来住的。 ...

傅育宁董事长深度解析：学术背景、管理智慧与行业洞察 一、傅育宁董事长简介：从学术精英到商界领袖的跨越 傅育宁，1957年3月出生于中国，拥有大连理工大学学士学位及英国布鲁诺尔大学海洋工程力学博士学位，兼具学术深度与国际化视野。其职业生涯始于招 商局集团，历任深圳赤湾石油基地常务副总经理、中国南山开发集团总经理、招商局集团副总裁等职，主导了集团在航运、金融、地产等领域的战略布局。 2010年，他接任招商局集团董事长，带领集团实现总资产与净利润的跨越式增长，被媒体誉为"用两个三年完成两次再造招商局"的改革者。 2014年，傅育宁临危受命，空降华润集团担任董事长。面对原董事长宋林违纪事件后的复杂局面，他以"稳中求进"为基调，推动企业文化重塑与业务重组。 上任首年即通过"傅博士观察"专栏传递管理理念，强调合规与价值观建设；随后剥离非核心资产，聚焦啤酒、医药、微电子等高潜力板块，并推动华润医 药、华润微电子等企业上市。至2019年，华润集团营收从4055亿元增至6550亿元，世界500强排名跃升107位至第80位。2020年，傅育宁因年龄原因卸任，但 其"学者型商人"的治理风格与战略眼光仍为业界称道。 二、傅育宁擅长领 ...

冠通期货-宏观2026年报 --美国中期选举，中国十五五开局 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 回顾2025年，全球经济在动荡中前行，海外特朗普上任，关税贸易大棒震惊全球，美联储重启降息催生出流动性牛市；国内，信心的重塑驱动 中国资产之重估，反内卷点燃新一轮供给侧改革，共同构成了影响全球经济走向的两大主线。当下，国际上特朗普交易的余威犹存，但其边际影响 逐步减弱，市场关注点逐步转向美国财政的可持续性与中期选举后政策路径的再校准。国内的宏观政策持续发力，以中央加杠杆为核心，托底经济、 化解风险，并在"十五五"开局之年，将绿色转型与产业升级作为推动高质量发展的核心抓手。 展望2026年，全球政治周期与科技周期的共振料将支撑风险资产，能源转型与AI投资两大浪潮则将重塑大宗商品格局。 美国视角，中期选举成 ...

Group 1 - Market sentiment score has stabilized at 1.1 as of December 26, indicating a neutral outlook, with signs of improvement in trading activity [7][11][14] - The overall trading volume for the week increased by 11.63% compared to the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of 19,651.66 billion RMB, peaking at 21,811.04 billion RMB on December 26 [14][16] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high, indicating an increase in leveraged funds and a recovery in risk appetite [25][27] Group 2 - The short-term scores for industries such as computers, real estate, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery have shown upward trends, with non-ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, and communications having the highest short-term scores of 88.14 [35][36] - The industry trading volatility has decreased, indicating a slowdown in capital switching between sectors, with liquidity marginally tightening [20][22] - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price changes is positive at 0.16, suggesting that sectors with high congestion, like defense and construction materials, have seen significant gains [39][41] Group 3 - The RSI indicator has shown significant improvement, indicating a reduction in selling pressure and a recovery in upward momentum [28][30] - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI continuing to rise, suggesting potential strengthening of these signals [44][45] - The model's findings highlight that high congestion in sectors can lead to strong price movements but also increases the risk of rapid corrections if market expectations change [38][39]

宏观 增长动能巩固，名义增速修复 ——2026 年宏观经济形势展望 投资要点： 分析师： 2026 年我国经济仍有望保持 5%的合理增速。首先，经济增长风险总体 降低。关税不确定性缓和及全球经济增长支撑出口韧性；2025 年下半年房地 产投资跌幅扩大有望促进地产层面积极政策出台，商品房销售端有望率先企 稳，地产投资跌幅随后收窄，对经济拖累缓和。其次，增长动能主要在消费、 基建投资及制造业提质升级，这几方面增速都有望高于 2025 年。消费方面 政策红利延续，商品消费支持方向扩容，服务消费、新型消费进一步形成新 的增长点。设备更新改造需求仍支撑制造业投资，科技创新及新技术投资加 快贡献增量。基建投资增速有望企稳回升，新型基建、公共服务领域投资及 安全领域投资成为核心拉动。再次，政策延续"积极有为"，更强调协同性、 灵活性。加大逆周期调节力度和强调跨周期调节两者时间维度以及解决的问 题不同，并不冲突。逆周期更侧重短期维度，有利于保障"十五五"开局之 年经济处于合理增速。 与 2025 年相比，2026 年经济增速波动幅度将显著缩小，经济运行的稳 定性将进一步提升。2025 年四季度推出的接续性政策有望在 2026 ...