Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9]. Core Insights - The real estate market continues to experience downward pressure on both volume and price, with significant year-on-year sales declines expected in Q4 due to high base effects. All 70 major cities have seen their second-hand housing price indices fall below last year's levels, indicating substantial pressure to stabilize prices. The necessity for incremental policy measures has increased, with conventional policies still having room for adjustment and extraordinary measures also being viable, albeit with timing uncertainties [2][12]. - The report suggests prioritizing high-quality real estate companies with low inventory pressure and strong product capabilities. It also recommends considering companies undergoing marginal improvements or debt restructuring. In the context of low interest rates and asset shortages, leading firms in commercial real estate, property management, and brokerage with stable cash flows and potential high dividends present medium to long-term investment opportunities [2][12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In September, the real estate market showed continued adjustment trends, with cumulative sales volume and value down 7.9% and 5.5% year-on-year, respectively. The sales value for Q1, Q2, and Q3 saw declines of 2.1%, 8.3%, and 13.1%, with September's sales value and area down 11.8% and 10.5% year-on-year. The price indices for new and second-hand homes in September fell by 0.4% and 0.6% month-on-month, respectively, with first-tier cities experiencing declines of 0.3% and 1.0% [12][13]. Construction and Investment Trends - New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, with September's decline narrowing to 14.4%. The completion area also saw a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%, but September recorded a 1.5% increase, indicating potential short-term fluctuations. The report anticipates continued double-digit declines in both construction and investment for 2025, with sales performance heavily reliant on future policy effectiveness [12][13]. Financial Position of Developers - Funding for real estate developers remains under pressure, with total funds received down 8.4% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025. Domestic loans and self-raised funds saw declines of 14.6% and 12.1% in September, respectively. Real estate development investment also fell by 13.9% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 21.3% in September, indicating a tightening of expenditure and potential impacts on construction and land acquisition costs [12][13].

10月21日晚间，免税行业龙头公司珠免集团公告称，公司拟将公司持有的珠海格力房产有限公司100% 股权转让至珠海投捷控股有限公司。本次交易拟采用现金方式，不涉及发行股份。根据初步研究和测 算，本次交易预计构成重大资产重组，不会导致公司控股股东和实际控制人发生变更。 | | | 图片来源：公司公告 数据显示，10月21日，珠免集团股价收报6.25元/股，涨幅为2.29%，最新市值为118亿元。 聚焦免税业务等大消费主业 珠免集团2025年半年报显示，公司业务主要涵盖免税及大消费产业和房地产业。公司战略发展定位聚焦 于"免税+商管+商贸"，全力打造以免税业务为亮点、围绕大消费产业链布局的国内领先的消费运营、 商业和商贸的大型企业集团。免税业务作为公司的核心业务板块，已形成覆盖口岸免税、跨境商务、商 业综合体及线上渠道的全产业链布局。 上半年，珠免集团营业收入约为17.4亿元，同比减少45.62%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润约为亏损 2.74亿元，上年同期为亏损5.54亿元，同比减亏。 免税业务方面，上半年，公司免税业务板块实现营业收入11.31亿元，净利润3.91亿元，经营活动产生的 现金流净额4.56亿元，有效 ...

- The provided content does not include any specific quantitative models or factors, their construction methodology, detailed construction process, evaluations, or backtesting results[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38]

Group 1 - The Guangzhou Municipal Government has released a plan to boost consumption, focusing on housing demand and urban renewal projects [1] - The plan includes the renovation of over 150 old residential communities by 2025 and an investment of 100 billion yuan in urban village transformations [1] - It aims to optimize housing fund policies to support homebuyers and improve rental withdrawal policies [1] Group 2 - The initiative promotes the replacement of old consumer goods, particularly in the appliance and automotive sectors, through subsidies and group purchasing activities [2] - It supports the development of the second-hand car market and aims to enhance the recycling system for scrapped vehicles [2] - The plan emphasizes increasing property income channels and improving the management of state-owned listed companies to stabilize investor returns [2]

第 42 周成交回升，外部波动下政策释放仍有预期 [Table_Industry] 房地产 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.21 2025-10-21 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 本报告导读： 上周地产成交回升。近期政策面继续保持平静，国庆节假期后房地产成交逐步恢复 正常，外部因素波动下后续政策释放仍有预期。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 报 告 [Table_subIndustry] [Table_Report] [table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 上周大中城市成交回升。近期政策面继续保持平静，国庆节假期后房 地产成交逐步恢复正常，行业"止跌回稳"趋势不变，外部因素波动下后 续政策释放仍有预期。 上周大中城市新房成交环比回升：2025 年第 42 周 30 大中城市新房成 交面积为 214 万平，环比前一周 281.1%，同比 2024 年-20.96%。其中 一线城市销售面积 54 万平，环比前一周 235.9%，同比 2024 年-33%。 二线城市销售面积 103 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Duty-Free Group plans to transfer 100% equity of Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd. to Zhuhai Toujie Holdings Co., Ltd., which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring as per regulations [1] Group 1: Major Asset Restructuring - The transaction is anticipated to be a significant asset restructuring that will not change the company's controlling shareholder or actual controller [1] - The company has completed a major asset swap, acquiring 51% equity of Zhuhai Duty-Free Enterprise Group and disposing of 100% equity of five real estate subsidiaries outside Zhuhai [3] - The company aims to focus on the duty-free business and the broader consumer sector, planning to exit the real estate business entirely within five years [3] Group 2: Strategic Focus and Development - The company intends to accelerate the completion of its commitment to divest from real estate, thereby concentrating on its core duty-free business [3] - Future strategy will target the consumer sector, aiming to establish a large consumer industry group based in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and expanding nationally and internationally [3] - The transaction is expected to lower the company's asset-liability ratio, optimize asset structure, and enhance operational efficiency [3] Group 3: Transaction Status - The transaction is still in the planning stage and requires further verification and negotiation, along with necessary internal and external decision-making and approval processes [4] - No intention agreement has been signed with the counterparty or related parties regarding the transaction [4] - The company will properly resolve any outstanding payments with Gree Real Estate before the transaction is completed [4] Group 4: Market Reaction - As of the latest closing, Zhuhai Duty-Free Group's stock rose by 2.29%, reaching a price of 6.25 yuan, with a market capitalization of 11.8 billion yuan [5]

10月21日，珠免集团公告，公司拟将公司持有的珠海格力房产有限公司（简称"格力房产"）100%股权转让至珠海投捷控股有限公司（简称"投捷控 股"）。 珠免集团表示， 本次交易预计构成《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》规定的重大资产重组，不会导致公司控股股东和实际控制人发生变更。 | 证券代码:600185 | 股票简称:珠免集团 编号:临 2025-053 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码:250772 | 债券商称:23 格地 01 | 珠免集团表示，本次交易前，公司主营业务为以免税业务为核心的大消费业务及房地产业务等。通过本次交易，公司将加快完成全面去地产化，更加聚 焦于免税业务等大消费主业业务。未来，公司将锚定大消费战略主航道，全力打造立足粤港澳、辐射全国、面向国际的大消费产业集团，迈入高质量发 展新阶段。本次交易为重大资产出售，拟采用现金的支付方式，不影响公司的股权结构。本次交易如能顺利完成，预计将降低公司资产负债率，优化资 产结构，提升经营效益。 本次交易尚处于筹划阶段，交易方案仍需进一步论证和沟通协商，尚需履行必要的内外部相关决策、审批程序。公司尚未与交易对方及相关方就本次交 易签署意向 ...

Market Performance - Developed markets experienced a general rebound, with MSCI Global up by 1.0%, MSCI Developed up by 1.2%, and MSCI Emerging down by 0.4% [6][10] - In the developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 3.8%, while the German DAX had the weakest performance with a decline of 1.7% [6][10] - In the emerging markets, the Mexican MXX index performed best with a rise of 1.9%, while the ChiNext Index was the worst performer, down by 5.7% [6][10] Trading Sentiment - The VIX index remained at a high level, indicating elevated market volatility [23] - Trading volumes varied across global markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index seeing increases, while the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 experienced declines [23][25] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong was at a historical low, while North American sentiment was at a historical high [23] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for the technology and financial sectors in Europe and the U.S. were revised upward [68] - The 2025 EPS forecast for the Hang Seng Index was downgraded from 2060 to 2055, while the S&P 500's EPS forecast was upgraded from 268 to 269 [68][71] - The Eurozone STOXX50 index maintained its 2025 EPS forecast at 332, with the technology sector seeing the largest upward revision [68][71] Economic Expectations - Economic expectations in Central Europe improved, with the European economic surprise index rising [6] - The U.S. economic surprise index declined due to ongoing government shutdowns and regional banking issues, while the Chinese economic surprise index also fell [6] Fund Flows - The market is pricing in two potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with expectations rising from the previous week [54][59] - Recent fund flows indicated significant inflows into the Hong Kong stock market, totaling 78 billion HKD, with notable contributions from the Stock Connect program [65][67] Valuation Metrics - Developed markets' PE and PB ratios were reported at 24x and 3.9x, respectively, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical norms [32] - Emerging markets showed a decline in valuation metrics, with PE and PB ratios at 16.6x and 2.1x, respectively [36] - Sector valuations in the Hong Kong market showed healthcare and technology sectors with the highest PE ratios, while energy and financial sectors had the lowest [45]

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai免税集团 plans to transfer 100% equity of Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd. to Zhuhai Toujie Holdings Co., Ltd. through a cash transaction, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring without changing the controlling shareholder or actual controller of the company [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction will be conducted in cash and will not involve the issuance of shares [1] - This major asset sale is part of the company's strategy to accelerate its complete divestment from real estate and focus more on its core duty-free and large consumption business [1] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The company aims to establish itself as a large consumption industry group based in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, radiating nationwide and targeting international markets [1] - The transaction is expected to lower the company's asset-liability ratio, optimize its asset structure, and enhance operational efficiency [1]

Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, China's GDP growth rate declined to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2's 5.2%, but the cumulative growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, indicating that achieving the annual target of 5.0% is still feasible [1][2] - Fixed asset investment has been a major drag on growth, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% in September 2025, marking the first negative growth since 2021 [1][10] Consumption Trends - Retail sales continued to decline in September 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from August [1][24] - The restaurant sector also saw a slowdown, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][28] Industrial Production - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value remained stable at 6.2% in September 2025, with significant differentiation between real estate-related and non-real estate-related industries [1][4] - Real estate-related industries such as glass, cement, and crude steel experienced accelerated production contraction, while non-real estate-related industries showed marginal growth [1][11] Inflation and Price Trends - Inflation remains weak, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1% month-on-month in September, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.3% [1][7] - Core CPI increased to 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven by rising gold and service prices [1][7] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment showed a downward trend across real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors, with real estate investment down 13.9% year-on-year in September [1][10] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.3% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][10] Debt Market Conditions - The debt market remains under pressure, with short-term fluctuations driven by U.S.-China trade news, but lacking strong long-term support [1][18] - The short end of the debt market shows higher certainty, while long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are experiencing increased volatility [1][18]