厄瓜多尔石油公司表示，本周初发生的火灾事故对厂区关键燃料储罐造成破坏。因此被迫进入紧急状 态，以加强各相关部门联合应对。 5月26日，厄瓜多尔能源部证实，埃斯梅拉达斯炼油厂一个油箱起火，工作人员已撤离，周边学校停 课。火灾未造成人员伤亡。厄瓜多尔国家应急行动委员会当天启动应急机制。（央视新闻） 厄瓜多尔国家石油公司当地时间5月29日宣布，该国最大炼油厂埃斯梅拉达斯炼油厂进入紧急状态。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House is considering a plan to eliminate record-high biofuel exemptions for small refineries, which could significantly impact the biofuel industry and the operations of small refineries [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The potential removal of biofuel exemptions may lead to increased compliance costs for small refineries, affecting their profitability and operational viability [1] - This move could also influence the overall biofuel market dynamics, potentially increasing demand for biofuels from larger refineries that do not qualify for exemptions [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The consideration of this plan indicates a shift in regulatory focus towards stricter enforcement of biofuel blending requirements, which may align with broader environmental policy goals [1] - The decision could set a precedent for future regulatory actions regarding renewable fuel standards and exemptions [1]

日本COSMO石油千叶炼油厂2号常压蒸馏装置意外停机 智通财经5月29日电，日本COSMO石油公司表示，其位于千叶的炼油厂2号常压蒸馏装置（CDU）意外 停机。 该装置日处理能力为10.2万桶。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for May 2025 show a slight recovery, with the BCI reading at 50.3, indicating stabilization in the economy due to a combination of financial policies and tariff reductions, although the trend still requires consolidation [1][2][18]. Economic Indicators - The BCI reading for May 2025 is 50.3, up 0.2 points from the previous value, reflecting a recovery in economic conditions since the "9·24" event [2]. - The BCI readings from October 2024 to May 2025 show fluctuations: 46.0 in September 2024, rising to 50.5 in November 2024, then dipping to 48.3 in December 2024, and reaching 54.8 in March 2025 before a slight decline to 50.1 in April 2025 [2]. Microeconomic Conditions - The microeconomic indicators show mixed results: improvements in financing environment, employment, and consumer price expectations, while declines are noted in intermediate goods price expectations, profit expectations, and investment expectations [4]. - The financing environment index improved to 49.1 in April, up from 48.0, indicating a better financing situation influenced by recent financial policies [4]. Employment Trends - Employment rebounded significantly in May, with the enterprise hiring index rising by 1.9 points, suggesting a high elasticity of employment in the external demand supply chain [9]. - The report estimates that foreign trade directly and indirectly supports around 170 million jobs, accounting for over 20% of total employment in the country [9]. Price Indicators - There is a divergence in price indicators: the consumer price expectation index is rising, while the intermediate goods price expectation index is declining, indicating pressure on industrial prices despite improvements in consumer prices [12]. - The profit expectation index continues to decline, reflecting ongoing pressure from low industrial prices, with PPI showing negative growth from January to April 2025 [14]. Investment Sentiment - The enterprise investment expectation index is declining, attributed to uncertainties in external environments and high real interest rates [15]. - Recommendations include lowering nominal interest rates and increasing government investment to stimulate corporate investment [15][16]. Conclusion - The economic situation in May shows improvement compared to April, but the trend needs further consolidation, with key factors such as US-China trade negotiations and local government project accelerations being crucial for future pricing [17][18].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容： （一）外交：强化与欧洲、东盟国家联络 。 1 ） 5 月 20 日， 中国与东盟十国全面完成中国 - 东盟 自贸区 3.0 版谈判。 2 ） 5 月 22 日 -23 日 ，总书记先后同法国总统马克龙、德国总理默茨通电 话。在与法国总统通电话时，总书记指出，"维护国际贸易规则和世界经济秩序，践行真正的多边主 义。国际形势越是复杂，中法越要作出正确战略抉择"。 3 ） 5 月 25 日 ， 总理同印度尼西亚总统普 拉博沃会谈，"中方愿同印尼加强发展战略对接，深化高质量共建'一带一路'合作"，"坚持多边主义和 自由贸易，推动平等有序的世界多极化、普惠包容的经济全球化"。 4 ） 5 月 26 日 ， 总理将出席在 马来西亚吉隆坡举行的东盟 - 中国 - 海合会峰会。 （二）财政及项目进度。 1 ）发改委 4 月审批项目加速 。据 5 月 20 日发改委例行新闻发布会， 4 月份，发改委共审批固定资 ...

厄瓜多尔石油公司：作为预防措施，厄瓜多尔的埃斯梅拉达斯（Esmeraldas）炼油厂在火灾后已经停止 运作。 ...

Core Insights - The Kribi Industrial Zone has attracted investments totaling approximately 400 billion CFA francs (around 6.66 million USD) since 2018, with 53 companies approved to establish operations there [1][2] Investment Overview - The industrial sectors involved in the investments include cocoa, cement, flour processing, and logistics [1] - The first contract was signed in 2018 with Atlantic Cocoa, which invested over 30 billion CFA francs to build a cocoa processing plant with an annual capacity of 48,000 tons, expandable to 64,000 tons [1] - Two additional factories have commenced operations in the past two years: a cement plant by Cimpor, with an investment of 37 billion CFA francs and an annual production capacity of 1 million tons, and a flour mill by Cadyst Group, with an investment of 13.5 billion CFA francs and an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons [1] Ongoing Projects - Currently, an asphalt production plant and a small refinery with a daily output of 10,000 barrels are under construction, with a total investment of 161 billion CFA francs and an annual asphalt production capacity of 250,000 tons [2] Strategic Importance - Kribi Port is positioned to become a major mineral export hub for Cameroon due to its strategic location and infrastructure [2] - However, the development faces challenges, particularly in electricity supply, with the local thermal power plant generating 176 MW but only providing 13 MW to Kribi, affecting stable energy supply for industrial production [2]

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年5月BCI读数为50.3，较前值小幅上行0.2个点。从这一指标可以理解"924"以来的经济节奏：2024年10-11月，政策初步见效，微观状况连续好 转；2024年12月，地方集中化债，经济景气度有所回踩；2025年1-3月，民营企业家座谈会叠加Deep Seek重大突破，微观景气度第二轮上行；4月，关税扰动 下经济再度出现回踩；5月，一揽子金融政策叠加关税缓和，经济再度企稳。从万得全A指数观测，股票市场基本上是相似的节奏，可见市场定价的有效性。 第二， 和总量上的弱修复特征对应，从主要分项指标来看，微观状况仍冷热参半：较前值好转的主要是企业融资环境、就业、消费品价格预期分项；继续下行的主 要是中间品价格预期、盈利预期、投资预期分项。 第三， 融资环境改善应主要与5月初一揽子金融政策有关，包括货币政策一端"降准+降息+结构性工具扩容"，以及金融政策一端确保外贸企业"应贷尽贷、应续尽 续"；同时中美日内瓦联合声明后，外需产业链的基本面和信用状况也有所改善。BCI融资环境指数环比上行1.1个点，估计5月信贷情况会好于4月。从大的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the upward limit of equity assets to be opened further through three emerging clues: government investment acceleration, supply-demand relationship management, and improvements in US-China trade relations. Group 1: Government Investment - Government investment is expected to accelerate following the issuance of special bonds and project implementation, with significant activity anticipated in May. The issuance of special bonds began on April 24, and the acceleration of project implementation is expected to lead to increased construction activity, particularly in urban renewal projects [2][4]. - The economic data from April indicates that while equipment and appliance sales are strong, the real estate and narrow infrastructure sectors are lagging, with fixed asset investment showing a year-on-year increase of only 3.6% [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Relationship - New signals from policies indicate a shift towards managing low prices and addressing "involution" competition. The central bank's report emphasizes a transition from managing high prices to low prices, aiming for high-quality development and preventing disorderly competition [3]. - The past two years have seen nominal growth rates lag behind actual growth, leading to higher real interest rates, which in turn dampen investment and consumption. Improving the supply-demand balance is seen as a pathway to raise the price level and stimulate economic activity [3]. Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - Recent communications between US and Chinese officials following the Geneva talks are viewed as a positive signal for improving macroeconomic uncertainty. Enhanced relations could lead to simultaneous improvements in the economic fundamentals and risk appetite [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - The week of May 22 saw significant upward pressure on risk-free rates in the US, leading to a "risk-off" sentiment in global markets. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all recorded declines of approximately 2.5% [5]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index outperformed global markets, rising by 1.1%, while A-shares showed mixed performance with a slight decline in technology stocks [5][6]. Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market displayed divergence, with gold leading gains amid geopolitical risks and tightening liquidity. Gold prices rose by 5.0% for London gold and 5.6% for COMEX futures, while copper also saw a slight increase [6][7]. - Oil prices adjusted downwards, with Brent crude futures falling by 1.0% during the same period [6]. Group 6: Economic Indicators - Industrial production in May is expected to show resilience, with a year-on-year growth estimate of 5.99%, supported by export demand. The actual and nominal GDP growth rates for May are projected at 5.24% and 4.10%, respectively [14]. - Consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) estimates indicate slight declines, with PPI expected to be -2.98% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector [15][16]. Group 7: Policy Developments - The State Council approved the "Manufacturing Green Low-Carbon Development Action Plan (2025-2027)," emphasizing the need for green technology innovation and the transformation of traditional industries [24]. - The government is focusing on addressing "involution" competition to promote healthy industrial development and enhance market competition [25].

美国小型炼厂豁免问题重提！生物柴油题材还能撑住盘面？棕榈油期货何时才能摆脱震荡？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...