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美联储降息预期下降,商品有何影响
2025-11-26 14:15
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]
150万亩永久基本农田落图落地,北京粮食生产连续5年较快增长
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-11-26 11:53
Core Insights - Beijing has implemented the strictest farmland protection system, restoring the cultivated land area to 1.97 million acres and completing the mapping of 1.5 million acres of permanent basic farmland [1][2] - The city has made significant advancements in agricultural technology, achieving a 75% contribution rate from agricultural technology progress and leading the nation in comprehensive technological strength [2][3] - The development of rural industries has been prioritized, with a focus on enhancing the production of local specialties and creating new rural business models [6][4] Group 1: Agricultural Development - The area of high-standard farmland built has reached 840,000 acres, with a focus on modern facility agriculture and the establishment of demonstration zones [2] - The self-sufficiency rates for key agricultural products such as vegetables, eggs, and milk have steadily increased [2] - Beijing has developed a robust seed industry, with 214.4 million preserved germplasm resources, ranking first in the country [3] Group 2: Rural Infrastructure and Services - Over 95% of administrative villages have completed village planning, and rural infrastructure improvements have been largely completed [4] - The city has introduced over 200 new urban entrepreneurial entities to develop rural new business formats, enhancing the local economy [4] - The income of rural residents has consistently grown faster than that of urban residents, with a projected increase of 9,730 yuan per capita by 2024 [7] Group 3: Policy and Governance - Beijing has implemented various policies to support rural collective economic development and improve governance in rural areas [8] - The city has made progress in land reform, with 23,87 plots of land entering the open market for transactions since 2021 [8] - The government aims to continue promoting urban-rural integration and modern agricultural development in the next five years [9]
德康农牧(02419.HK)11月26日耗资1109.8万港元回购15.2万股
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-26 11:06
Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419.HK) announced a share buyback of 152,000 shares at a cost of HKD 11.098 million on November 26 [1] Group 1 - The company spent HKD 11.098 million for the repurchase [1] - A total of 152,000 shares were bought back [1]
德康农牧(02419)11月26日斥资1109.8万港元回购15.19万股
智通财经网· 2025-11-26 11:04
Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419) announced a share buyback plan, investing HKD 11.098 million to repurchase 151,900 shares at a price range of HKD 71.90 to HKD 75.15 per share [1] Group 1 - The company plans to execute the buyback on November 26, 2025 [1] - The total investment for the buyback is approximately HKD 11.098 million [1] - The number of shares to be repurchased is 151,900 [1]
供应增幅更为明显 生猪期货预计仍承压运行为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-26 05:43
News Summary Core Viewpoint - The national pig price has decreased, while corn prices have increased, leading to a decline in the pig-to-feed price ratio, indicating potential challenges for the pig farming industry in the near future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of November 19, the national pig price is 12.24 yuan/kg, down 1.61% from November 12 [1]. - The wholesale corn price is 2.28 yuan/kg, up 0.88% from November 12 [1]. - The pig-to-feed price ratio is 5.37, down 2.36% from November 12 [1]. - The average loss per pig in the current breeding model is estimated at 232.66 yuan [1]. Group 2: Company Insights - Shennong Group aims to achieve a pig output target of approximately 3 million heads, with a complete cost of 12.2 yuan/kg in October [1]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures predicts that pig prices may continue to face pressure over the next three months, recommending a short position on March contracts while suggesting a wait-and-see approach for short-term trading [2]. - Yide Futures notes that while demand for pigs is stable or increasing, the supply is also rising significantly, leading to continued pressure on pig prices in the short term [3]. - The acceleration in the elimination of breeding sows may provide some downward space, but the market bottom may take time to develop, with near-term futures expected to remain under pressure [3].
2025年10月中国羊肉进口数量和进口金额分别为1.74万吨和0.7亿美元
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-11-26 03:52
Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides a comprehensive assessment of the Chinese lamb industry from 2026 to 2032, highlighting market trends and development forecasts [1] Import Data Summary - In October 2025, China's lamb imports amounted to 17,400 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 28.3% [1] - The import value for the same period was $7 million, which reflects a year-on-year decline of 13.7% [1] Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing a range of services including feasibility studies and customized consulting [1] - The company emphasizes its commitment to delivering high-quality services and market insights to empower investment decisions [1]
农产品日报:出栏积极性提升,猪价维持震荡-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:06
农产品日报 | 2025-11-26 出栏积极性提升,猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11415元/吨,较前交易日变动+15.00元/吨,幅度+0.13%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.35元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤,现货基差 LH01-65,较前交易日变动-65;江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.45元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.20元/公斤,现货基差LH01+35,较前交易日变动-215;四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.57元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤,现货基差LH01+155,较前交易日变动-15。 据农业农村部监测,11月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.94,比昨天上升0.24个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为128.13,比昨天上升0.28个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.72元/公斤,比昨天下降1.1%;牛肉66.88 元/公斤,比昨天上升0.7%;羊肉62.60元/公斤,比昨天下降0.3%;鸡蛋7.35元/公斤,与昨天持平;白条鸡17.55元/ 公斤,比昨天上升0.3%。 市场分析 综合来 ...
南农晨读 | 蒙品入湾 粤享草原
Nan Fang Nong Cun Bao· 2025-11-26 02:06
南农晨读 | 蒙品 入湾 粤享草原_ 南方+_南方plus 【今日关注】 大饱眼福,全运 会顶流鳌鱼原 型"现身"|第15 届广东省民间工 艺精品展启幕 传承千年技艺, 绽放时代精品。 11月25日上午, 第十五届广东省 民间工艺精品展 在广州人民艺术 中心开幕,展览 时间为11月25日 至12月7日,为 期13天。该展由 广东省文学艺术 界联合会、广州 市文学艺术界联 合会、广东省民 间文艺家协会、 广东省工艺美术 协会主办,230 位艺术家参展。 聚焦大湾区农交 会|"媒体+"寻 迹,农批40 年"时光记忆"征 集启动 一段记录行业四 十载辉煌历程的 征集活动正式启 动。全国城市农 贸中心联合会近 日发起"中国农 批40年"主题素 材征集,面向全 国农产品批发市 场及从业者征集 见证行业发展的 珍贵素材。 绿色总动员!全 省林业锁定梅州 力河源畜牧业 向"消费驱动"转 型 潮涌东江,风帆 正劲。近年来, 河源市锚定畜牧 业高质量发展方 向,全力推动产 业延链强链、提 档升级。作为在 河源成长起来的 农业产业化国家 重点龙头企业, 东瑞食品集团股 你如果走进第三 届广东林业博览 会(下称"林博 会")的展厅 ...
基因编辑民猪培育成功
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-11-26 00:33
Core Viewpoint - The research teams from Heilongjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Sun Yat-sen University have successfully developed the world's first single-gene and multi-gene edited Min pigs, marking a significant advancement in genetic editing for livestock breeding [1] Group 1: Single-Gene Editing Achievements - The teams achieved single-gene editing of the IGF2 gene, resulting in Min pigs with improved meat quality [1] - They also edited the BMP15 gene, leading to Min pigs with enhanced reproductive capabilities [1] Group 2: Multi-Gene Editing Achievements - The teams combined the BMP15, MSTN, and CD163 genes to create three-gene edited Min pigs that exhibit increased production, high reproductive capacity, and disease resistance [1] - Another combination of the TYR, SGK3, and GHRHR genes resulted in three-gene edited Min pigs characterized by hairlessness, albinism, and dwarfism [1] Group 3: Broader Implications and Future Research - The research also included the Five-Finger Mountain pig, resulting in growth-related PROP1 gene edited pigs and high reproductive capacity FecB gene edited pigs [1] - The findings provide new pathways for high-quality Min pig production and open new avenues for the breeding of medical model pigs and pet pigs, indicating significant theoretical and practical implications [1] - The teams plan to enhance trait evaluation of gene-edited pigs and continue research on other gene-edited pigs, contributing to the protection of local pig resources and the development of the life and health industry in China [1]
德康农牧(02419.HK)11月25日回购25.74万股,耗资1927.34万港元
证券时报·数据宝统计,德康农牧在港交所公告显示,11月25日以每股73.900港元至76.150港元的价格回 购25.74万股,回购金额达1927.34万港元。该股当日收盘价75.150港元,下跌1.31%,全天成交额1.06亿 港元。 今年以来该股累计进行5次回购,合计回购51.05万股,累计回购金额3787.83万港元。(数据宝) 德康农牧回购明细 | 日期 | 回购股数(万股) | 回购最高价(港元) | 回购最低价(港元) | 回购金额(万港元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.11.25 | 25.74 | 76.150 | 73.900 | 1927.34 | | 2025.11.21 | 8.57 | 73.300 | 71.500 | 621.24 | | 2025.11.20 | 9.84 | 75.195 | 73.500 | 730.17 | | 2025.11.19 | 3.95 | 74.900 | 74.400 | 295.10 | | 2025.11.18 | 2.95 | 72.950 | 72.200 | 213.97 | ( ...