Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is unlikely to replicate the situation at the end of 2020. The current credit risk event is unlikely to significantly change market expectations or prompt institutions such as banks and insurance companies to accelerate their entry into the bond market, and it may not change the main trading line of interest rate bonds [6][9][16]. - In December, the pressure on the capital market is expected to be controllable, but the overall trading opportunities in the bond market are still limited. The supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, and fiscal spending tends to increase at the end of the year. The bond market may continue its weak and volatile pattern, and the trading space is narrow [6][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Some investors compare Vanke's debt extension to Yongmei's default, believing that the bond market will replicate the situation at the end of 2020. However, the impact of Yongmei's default was mainly due to the panic after the collapse of the "state - owned enterprise belief" and the negative feedback of fund products, which is less likely to happen now. The central bank responds quickly to credit risk events, and this event is unlikely to change market expectations significantly [6][9][16]. - In 2020, after Yongmei's default, the credit bond market was sold off, leading to a marginal tightening of the capital market and a significant adjustment of interest rate bonds. There was a negative feedback in the fund product market. The central bank increased liquidity injection, and the market gradually stabilized after the financial regulatory authorities' statement [10][11][15]. - In contrast, Vanke's debt - extension has a lower panic - causing effect, and the probability of credit risk spreading to the interest rate and capital markets is weak. The capital market pressure in December is expected to be controllable, but the bond market trading opportunities are limited [16]. 2. This Week's Focus Points in the Fixed - Income Market 2.1 Next Week's Overseas Data - This week, important data will be released, including China's November foreign exchange reserves, the US November PMI, November ADP employment figures, and the Eurozone's November PMI and October PPI monthly rate [17][19]. 2.2 This Week's Interest Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the interest rate bond issuance scale is expected to be 456.7 billion yuan, which is at a medium level compared to the same period. Among them, the issuance scale of treasury bonds is expected to be about 218 billion yuan, local bonds are planned to be issued at 108.7 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds are expected to be issued at about 130 billion yuan [19][20][21]. 3. Interest Rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Reverse Repurchase Net Withdrawal - This week, the reverse repurchase net withdrawal was 16.42 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 1 trillion yuan and 900 billion yuan matured. The treasury deposit was increased by 12 billion yuan, and the central bank bills were offset. The total net injection of open - market operations was 5.58 billion yuan. The capital interest rate showed a structural differentiation, and the repurchase trading volume decreased [26][27]. - The certificate of deposit issuance increased slightly, the net financing was negative, the short - term issuance interest rate increased, and the long - term secondary yield was relatively stable [33]. 3.2 Interest Rates of All Maturities Rose - Last week, due to the unstable liability side of fixed - income products and market concerns about the new fund regulations, the interest rate market adjusted. In the second half of the week, long - term bonds led the marginal repair of spot bonds. The yields of 10 - year treasury bonds and CDB bonds increased by 1.7bp and 2.5bp respectively. The yields of treasury bonds of all maturities increased, with the 7 - year treasury bond yield rising the most, by about 3.8bp [42][45]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most operating rates declined. The blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and PTA operating rate decreased, while the asphalt operating rate increased. The average daily crude steel output in mid - November had a negative year - on - year growth rate of - 12.5% [6][54]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail improved. The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transaction area slightly narrowed. The SCFI and CCFI comprehensive indices changed by 0.7% and - 0.1% respectively [6][54][57]. - In terms of prices, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices increased. The coking coal price decreased by 4.4%. The building materials comprehensive price index, cement index, and glass index increased. The rebar output decreased, and the inventory continued to decline to 3.85 million tons. The prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by 1.9%, 1.8%, and - 0.4% respectively [6][57].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Meituan's food delivery losses have peaked, and there is a focus on value recovery amid dynamic competition [3][4] - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4%, but incurred an operating loss of 19.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 244% [3][4] - The core local business revenue decreased by 3% to 67.4 billion yuan, with significant losses attributed to intensified market competition and increased promotional expenses [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights that Meituan's food delivery business saw record high daily active users and monthly transaction users, indicating a robust growth in core user base [5] - Meituan's flash purchase business revenue grew by 33% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with significant increases in user transaction frequency and average order value [5][6] - The hotel and travel business revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with over 200 service categories covered, and the platform has accumulated over 25 billion real consumption reviews [6] Group 3 - The report projects that Meituan's revenue for 2025-2027 will be 365.4 billion, 412.0 billion, and 467.9 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates of -18.4 billion, +14.5 billion, and +37.8 billion yuan [7] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Meituan, with a target market value of 737 billion yuan for 2026, corresponding to a target price of 121 yuan per share [7] Group 4 - The report on Li Auto indicates that Q3 2025 revenue was 27.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, with a net loss of 6.24 billion yuan [18][19] - Li Auto's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, with vehicle gross margin at 15.5% [19][20] - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7% to 37% [20][21]

债券市场对外开放方面，截至10月末，境外机构在中国债券市场的托管余额3.8万亿元，占中国债券市 场托管余额的比重为1.9%。其中，境外机构在银行间债券市场的债券托管余额3.7万亿元；分券种看， 境外机构持有国债2.0万亿元、占比54.7%，同业存单0.8万亿元、占比20.9%，政策性银行债券0.8万亿 元、占比20.1%。 货币市场运行方面，10月份，银行间同业拆借市场成交6.8万亿元，同比减少19.0%，环比减少26.7%； 债券回购成交131.5万亿元，同比减少5.2%，环比减少17.8%。交易所标准券回购成交46.5万亿元，同比 增加9.8%，环比减少18.2%。10月份，同业拆借加权平均利率1.39%，环比下降6个基点；质押式回购加 权平均利率1.40%，环比下降6个基点。 (责编：岳弘彬、牛镛) 关注公众号：人民网财经 债券市场运行方面，10月份，银行间债券市场现券成交26.6万亿元，日均成交1.5万亿元，同比增加 10.2%，环比增加3.9%。单笔成交量在500万—5000万元的交易占总成交金额的48.06%，单笔成交量在 9000万元以上的交易占总成交金额的45.68%，单笔平均成交量4177. ...

Core Viewpoint - European bond yields collectively increased on December 1, with notable rises in various countries' 10-year government bonds [1] Group 1: Yield Changes - The UK 10-year government bond yield rose by 4.1 basis points to 4.479% [1] - The French 10-year government bond yield increased by 7.5 basis points to 3.482% [1] - The German 10-year government bond yield went up by 6.1 basis points to 2.748% [1] - The Italian 10-year government bond yield climbed by 6.9 basis points to 3.467% [1] - The Spanish 10-year government bond yield rose by 6.4 basis points to 3.225% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's financial markets faced significant declines on December 1, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 1.89% and bond prices plummeting, indicating growing concerns over the government's fiscal policies and potential interest rate hikes [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index opened high but fell sharply, with intraday losses exceeding 1,000 points, ultimately closing down by 1.89% [1]. - The market's decline is attributed to investor worries regarding the fiscal situation under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's administration [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - Japanese government bond prices experienced a significant drop, with the two-year bond yield rising by 2.5 basis points to 1.015%, the highest level since 2008 [1]. - The yield on the 10-year newly issued government bonds reached 1.840%, marking the highest level since June 2008 [1]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase the issuance of short-term bonds to support the economic stimulus plan, which may exert pressure on short-term sovereign bonds [1]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - There are indications that the Bank of Japan may consider interest rate hikes, as Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned weighing the pros and cons of such a decision [1]. - Despite the cautious tone from the Bank of Japan, there is speculation that a rate hike could occur in December, while maintaining a generally accommodative monetary policy environment [1][2]. - The current fiscal expansion policies under Kishida's government raise concerns about potential inflation acceleration and a significant increase in mid-term government bond issuance, which could disrupt supply-demand balance [2].

在明明看来，今年科创债发行主要有以下特点：一是发行主体多元化，国企、金融机构、股权投资机构、民营企业等均参 与其中；二是发行规模显著提升，且融资成本较低，利率中枢低于一般信用债；三是投向明确，资金主要用于人工智能、半导 体、生物医药等前沿领域。 "从发行期限结构来看，科创债发行期限丰富，可以满足不同资金需求，其中，1年至3年期科创债发行规模最大。"姚宇彤 说。 本报记者 孟珂 今年以来，截至12月1日，共有3004只科技创新债券（以下简称"科创债"）正式发行，发行规模合计达3.18万亿元，发行数 量及总规模相较去年同期分别增长85%和98%，为科技创新企业提供了有力的资金支持。 中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，今年科创债发行明显提速，发行主体及发行规模扩容显 著。发行科创债有助于帮助企业融资，为科创企业提供中长期资金，缓解融资难问题。同时，可以增加债券市场品种，满足多 元投资需求，助力资本市场创新。引导资金流向科技创新领域，提高政策传导效率。 发行主体多元化 5月7日，中国人民银行、证监会联合发布《关于支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜的公告》，从丰富科技创新债券产品体系 和完善科技创新债 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for December 2025 indicates a weakening influence of the equity market on the bond market, with overall weak performance and reduced trading volume expected in the equity market. Seasonal factors typically lead to increased fiscal spending and loose monetary policy in December, which may result in a downward trend in interest rates [1][4][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Monetary Policy**: The monetary policy is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with a high probability of interest rates declining in December due to seasonal patterns. However, the impact of upcoming important meetings on the market needs to be monitored [1][4]. - **Credit Spread**: The 1-5 year non-financial credit spread has returned to the 30th percentile of the past 24 years, indicating a thin safety cushion. The compression of non-financial medium to long-term credit spreads may face challenges due to year-end regulatory changes [5][3]. - **Fiscal Policy for 2026**: The fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of spending intensity, with a deficit rate expected between 4% and 4.5%. The net financing scale of government debt may reach approximately 14.5 trillion yuan [12][10]. - **Investment and Consumption Outlook**: Investment and consumption are expected to recover moderately in 2026, but inflation remains an uncertain factor. The PPI decline is expected to narrow, while CPI may return to positive growth [7][16]. - **Interest Rate Projections**: The after-tax yield on 10-year government bonds is anticipated to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.9%, with a median estimate between 1.75% and 1.95% [2][19]. - **Investment Strategy**: In a low-interest-rate environment, a focus on coupon strategies is recommended, along with opportunities for phase-based trading. The overall economic recovery is expected to be moderate, supporting a low-interest-rate environment [21][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Economic Structure Transition**: The current macroeconomic policy framework emphasizes structural transformation, with a focus on medium to long-term planning and industrial policy, aiming for sustainable growth while stabilizing short-term economic conditions [9][14]. - **Fourth Quarter Economic Support**: There is a significant amount of new funding (1 trillion yuan) allocated for the fourth quarter, which includes policy financial tools and local government debt limits, aimed at boosting economic growth [8][11]. - **Inflation Risks**: Inflation is identified as a key uncertainty for the bond market in 2026, with potential short-term volatility due to rising prices, although the overall macro policy aims to prevent financial system stagnation [16][20]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the macroeconomic outlook, fiscal and monetary policies, investment strategies, and potential risks in the bond market.

俄罗斯即将在本国发售首只以人民币计价的主权债券，期限为3至7年，票面周期为182天，每张债券面 值为1万元人民币。 业内认为，该举措是人民币国际化在地化运用的一个重要示范。 根据俄罗斯财政部官网，俄罗斯财政部宣布计划首次发行以人民币计价的俄罗斯联邦政府债券。投资者 将获得两期以人民币计价的固定票面收益联邦债券，期限为3至7年，票面周期为182天，每张债券面值 为1万元人民币。 实际上，历史上已有多个国家发行过以人民币计价的主权债，包括英国、韩国、波兰、匈牙利、印度尼 西亚、阿联酋的沙迦酋长国等。 例如，英国政府官网显示，2014年10月，英国政府成功在伦敦发行了以人民币计价的主权债券。2015年 12月，韩国政府在中国银行间债券市场发行30亿元三年期人民币债券，中标利率为3.00%。据悉，这是 首只境外主权国家在中国境内发行"熊猫债"。 发行规模及票面利率将根据定于2025年12月2日进行的认购申请簿收集结果确定，技术性配售计划于 2025年12月8日进行。投资者可选择以人民币或俄罗斯卢布购买债券并收取相关收益。 2016年8月，波兰在中国银行间债券市场成功发行三年期人民币主权债券30亿元。这笔债券是波兰首次 ...

01 12月1日，市场震荡拉升，沪指重返3900点上方。有色金属板块爆发，科技题材持续活跃，带动相关ETF上涨，涨幅前十的ETF中，有4 只有色、黄金相关ETF以及4只物联网相关ETF。 02 近期，债市持续震荡，债券相关ETF成交活跃。12月1日，成交额前十的ETF中，除1只短融ETF和2只货币ETF外，其余均为债券相关 ETF。科创债ETF成交持续活跃，4只科创债ETF成交额超90亿元。 03 核心资产迎来增量资金。11月28日，资金净流入居前的ETF中，出现上证50ETF（510050）、中证500ETF（510500）等产品。 有色、物联网相关ETF涨幅居前 12月1日，有色金属板块爆发。涨幅前十的ETF中4只为有色、黄金相关ETF，其中，黄金股票ETF基金涨超4%，在所有ETF中涨幅最 高。工业有色ETF涨近4%。 科技题材表现活跃，通信设备、物联网等相关ETF涨幅居前。涨幅居前的ETF中，有4只为物联网相关ETF。 对于今日大涨的有色金属板块，业内人士分析称，有色金属行业大涨的主要原因是，美联储降息预期升温导致流动性宽松预期增强，叠 加供给紧张和需求增长支撑价格上涨。 跌幅方面，12月1日，多只跨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including the issuance scale, types, and progress of different periods, as well as the issuance progress of special bonds [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From December 1st to December 7th, local bonds are expected to be issued at 1087.2 billion yuan, including 504.4 billion yuan of new bonds (113.9 billion yuan of new general bonds and 390.5 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 582.8 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (413.1 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 169.7 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds). From November 24th to November 30th, local bonds were issued at 3513.6 billion yuan, including 2340.2 billion yuan of new bonds (87.5 billion yuan of new general bonds and 2252.7 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 1173.4 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (687.7 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 485.6 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: The report presents the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in different months and regions through multiple figures, showing the differences between planned and actual issuance in different periods and regions [21][22]. 2. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of November 30th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 91.02%, and that of new special bonds is 101.81% [27]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of November 30th through a figure [27]. 3. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 30th, the fifth - batch second - round special refinancing bonds total 20000.00 billion yuan, the sixth - round special refinancing bonds total 2712.79 billion yuan, and an additional 513.43 billion yuan will be issued next week. The top three regions in the fifth - batch second - round disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1227.00 billion yuan) [5]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 30th, the special new special bonds in 2025 total 13508.41 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 25387.05 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in the disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (1311.70 billion yuan). The top three regions in the 2025 disclosure scale are Jiangsu (1289.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1192.68 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [6]. 4. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report shows the primary and secondary spreads of local bonds through figures, including the spreads of different maturities and their changes [38]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The report presents the regional secondary spreads of local bonds through a figure [39]. 5. New Special Bond Investment Direction - **Project Investment Monthly Statistics**: The report shows the investment direction of new special bonds through a figure, and the latest month's statistics only consider the issued new bonds [40].