美股盘前，科技股多数下跌CoreWeave跌约9%，公司因加速AI投资计划导致利润下滑；英伟达跌约 1%，特斯拉跌约2%；思科涨约3%，公司业绩向好，上调全年收入指引。中概股多数下跌，京东跌约 3%，阿里巴巴跌约1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, highlighting President Trump's criticisms of the EU's trade practices and the ongoing negotiations aimed at resolving these issues [1][2][5]. Trade Negotiations - The U.S. and EU have initiated trade negotiations, with the EU proposing a framework that includes investments in liquefied natural gas and artificial intelligence, as well as cooperation in strategic sectors like steel, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [4][5]. - The EU's trade commissioner emphasized the need for a solution through negotiations while preparing for potential countermeasures if talks fail [5][10]. Trade Imbalances - In 2024, approximately 750,000 cars were exported from the EU to the U.S., while only 170,000 cars were exported from the U.S. to the EU, indicating a significant trade imbalance [2]. - The total trade volume between the U.S. and EU was nearly $1 trillion last year, underscoring the economic significance of their relationship [6]. EU's Countermeasures - The EU has prepared a list of products worth €95 billion for potential tariffs in response to U.S. tariffs, which includes various industrial and agricultural goods [11][12]. - The EU is considering using all available trade defense measures, including a new tool that allows for counter-sanctions against economic coercion [13]. Digital Services Tax - The EU may impose tariffs on U.S. digital services, particularly targeting advertising revenues, which could significantly impact U.S. tech companies that rely heavily on the European market [14][15]. - The implementation of a digital services tax faces challenges due to differing interests among EU member states, complicating the potential for a unified approach [15].

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs showed mixed performance in early trading, with semiconductor and global airline ETFs rising over 1%, while healthcare and biotechnology ETFs fell nearly 2% [1] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor ETF increased by 3.71 to 241.12, representing a gain of 1.56% with a trading volume of 524,400 shares and a total market value of 28.50 billion [2] Airline Industry - Global airline ETF rose by 0.25 to 22.80, reflecting an increase of 1.11% with a trading volume of 166,100 shares and a total market value of 718.20 million [2] Healthcare Sector - Healthcare ETF decreased by 3.11 to 132.85, marking a decline of 2.29% with a trading volume of 1,881,800 shares and a total market value of 254.23 billion [2] Biotechnology Sector - Biotechnology index ETF fell by 2.37 to 119.69, indicating a drop of 1.94% with a trading volume of 80,763 shares and a total market value of 95.03 billion [2] Technology Sector - Technology sector ETF rose by 1.94 to 229.64, showing an increase of 0.85% with a trading volume of 475,800 shares and a total market value of 730.40 billion [2] Consumer Discretionary - Consumer discretionary ETF increased by 1.48 to 213.95, reflecting a gain of 0.70% with a trading volume of 285,600 shares and a total market value of 268.73 billion [2] Financial Sector - Financial sector ETF rose by 0.24 to 51.11, representing an increase of 0.47% with a trading volume of 2,047,300 shares and a total market value of 568.88 billion [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices may reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, up from approximately $3,300, driven by U.S. policies and limited supply [1] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on Chinese stocks due to optimistic sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly among U.S. hedge funds [1] - Goldman Sachs expects Germany's defense spending to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2027, benefiting the defense industry significantly [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that if interest rate cuts do not materialize, short-term U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to a lack of supporting economic data [3] - Bank of America reports that global investors are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook [5] - BlackRock notes that recent U.S.-China trade talks have yielded significant progress, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese markets [4] Group 3 - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates that tariffs may initially raise U.S. inflation before negatively impacting economic growth, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - Capital Economics predicts that OPEC+'s strategic shift will continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices until the end of 2026 [8] - BMO Capital Markets highlights an increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in June due to disappointing employment data [9] Group 4 - CITIC Securities suggests that strengthened export controls on strategic metals may lead to a revaluation of these assets, with prices expected to rise [7] - CITIC Securities also notes a recovery in risk appetite, with a focus on high-growth sectors and new themes following the release of Q1 reports [8] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of implementing monetary policies introduced in May, while considering both domestic and U.S. economic factors [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the passenger vehicle sector maintaining high growth in Q2, driven by demand from trade-in policies and consumer incentives [10] - Huatai Securities anticipates a structural recovery in the home appliance sector in Q2, supported by domestic demand and export recovery [12] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on "technology narrative" opportunities in the A-share market, alongside stable dividend-paying sectors [13]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the third consecutive time, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their economic impact [1][2] - Powell mentioned that the potential for increased tariffs could lead to rising inflation, slower economic growth, and higher unemployment rates [1] - Economic indicators show mixed results, with signs of a mild recession emerging, as both manufacturing and services PMI indices are declining [10][11] Group 2: Technology Sector Performance - Despite macroeconomic volatility, major tech companies have shown structural strengths, with six out of the "Seven Giants" exceeding earnings expectations by an average of 16% [2] - Companies like Google and Microsoft reaffirmed their AI spending plans, while Amazon reported a three-digit year-on-year revenue growth in its AI business [2] Group 3: Trade Agreements and Market Reactions - The recent trade agreement between the UK and the US is seen as a positive development, marking the first new trade deal announced by the US [5][6] - The market is expected to respond favorably to such agreements, although significant challenges remain with other key countries [6] Group 4: Investment Trends and Asset Classes - Investors are advised to focus on various asset classes, including bond yields, dollar trends, and gold prices, as these will influence market dynamics [14] - The dollar index is stabilizing around the 100 mark, with expectations of continued fluctuations in the coming months [16]

Core Viewpoint - Fujian Province is enhancing support for corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to promote high-quality development of technology-oriented enterprises, including the establishment of a 10 billion yuan provincial M&A fund [1] Group 1: M&A Support Measures - The Fujian provincial government is increasing support for corporate M&A and restructuring [1] - The provincial financial investment company and investment group are encouraged to collaborate with quality technology-oriented listed companies and leading manufacturing enterprises [1] - The government aims to leverage Fujian's overseas Chinese community advantages to attract foreign capital participation [1] Group 2: M&A Fund and Financial Products - A provincial M&A fund of 10 billion yuan is being established to participate in key M&A projects based on market principles [1] - Listed companies, especially technology-oriented ones, are encouraged to utilize various financial instruments such as shares and targeted convertible bonds for M&A [1] - Financial institutions, including banks and insurance companies, are encouraged to provide diverse M&A financial products like loans, insurance, and bonds [1] Group 3: Post-M&A Support - There will be an emphasis on enhancing M&A services and post-investment empowerment [1] - A comprehensive tracking and service system will be established around M&A targets to ensure focused support for projects that are implemented [1]

2025 年 05 月 11 日 中美瑞士谈判提升全球风险偏好， 美国散户看涨比例大幅提升 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250502-20250509) 证 相关研究 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 大 类 资 产 配 置 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250502–20250509）市场聚焦美中新一轮经贸会谈，特朗普政府暗示可 能下调部分中国进口商品关税，阶段性提振乐观预期。1）利率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "5.7 package of policies" is a deep - seated advancement of the "9.24 policy combination", aiming to enhance market expectations, stimulate market entity vitality, and support the real economy and capital market [2]. - With the inflow of long - term funds, savings funds, and foreign capital, the A - share market is expected to enter a new upward cycle [14]. - The technology sector is the biggest beneficiary of the policy dividends, with clear value - growth logic, and the technology - led investment theme in the A - share market is further strengthened [15][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Background and Policy Comparison - The "9.24 policy combination" was introduced when the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2700 points, aiming at "market rescue", while the "5.7 package of policies" focuses on "stabilizing expectations" and structural optimization [3]. - The "5.7 package of policies" is introduced due to the impact of Sino - US tariff games, low - running prices, and the need to maintain the stable development of core markets [4][7][9]. 3.2 Policy Content - **Monetary Policy**: Both the "9.24 policy combination" and the "5.7 package of policies" include a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut. The "5.7 package of policies" also reduces the reserve requirement ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0%. The "9.24 policy combination" cuts interest rates by 20bp, while the "5.7 package of policies" cuts interest rates by 10bp and reduces the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [3]. - **Capital Market Policy**: The "9.24 policy combination" creates swap facilities and re - loan tools. The "5.7 package of policies" increases the scale of structural funds, creates risk - sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds, and expands the scope of long - term investment pilot projects for insurance funds [3]. - **Real Estate Policy**: The "9.24 policy combination" reduces the stock mortgage rate and unifies the minimum down - payment ratio for first - and second - home mortgages. The "5.7 package of policies" reduces the individual housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points [3]. 3.3 Market Situation - **Capital Market**: In May, the stock index trend is affected by the expectation of incremental policies and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations. After the release of multiple positive factors, the stock index achieved a "good start" in May, but market divergence has increased [12]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market has shown signs of improvement, but the new - home sales momentum is insufficient. Continued policy support is needed to promote its stable and healthy development [11]. 3.4 Investment Opportunities - **Overall Market**: With the inflow of long - term funds, savings funds, and foreign capital, the A - share market is expected to enter a new upward cycle [14]. - **Technology Sector**: It is the biggest beneficiary of the policy dividends. Emerging sectors such as AI computing power and low - altitude economy have long - term investment value, and it is recommended to invest in segments of the consumer electronics recovery chain and robot industry chain [15].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the sixth consecutive time, despite pressure from President Trump for a rate cut following strong April non-farm payroll data [1][2] - April non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly exceeding the expected 133,000, although March data was revised down from 228,000 to 185,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 58,000 jobs over the past two months [1][2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings rising by 3.8% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [1] Group 2 - Despite Trump's calls for rate cuts, Federal Reserve officials emphasize that combating inflation remains the top priority, with Powell stating he will not yield to political pressure [2] - Market expectations indicate a 97.2% probability of no rate change in May, with the forecast for rate cuts in 2023 reduced from four to three, and the first potential cut now pushed to July [2] - The job market shows significant sectoral divergence, with healthcare (+64,000) and transportation and warehousing (+29,000) sectors expanding, while manufacturing continues to decline, experiencing the largest output drop since 2020 [2] Group 3 - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 achieving its longest nine-day winning streak since 2004, while the dollar index surpassed the 100 mark and gold prices fell by 2% over the week [3] - The futures market has adjusted its expectations for rate cuts, reducing the number of anticipated cuts to four for the year, a significant decrease from earlier aggressive predictions [3] - Powell's ability to balance "data resilience" with "political pressure" and maintain policy independence amid inflation risks from tariffs will be crucial for reshaping global market dynamics [3]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the news is the introduction of a comprehensive monetary policy package by the central bank, aimed at balancing market expectations, reducing financing costs, and promoting high-quality economic development through a combination of quantity, price, and structural policies [1][2]. Policy Background - The current Chinese economy is facing dual pressures from both internal and external factors, including U.S. tariffs and structural issues like real estate market adjustments and insufficient technological innovation [2]. - The central bank's policy response is a proactive measure to stabilize expectations and growth, addressing short-term market pressures while facilitating long-term economic transformation [2]. Policy Classification - The ten policies introduced can be categorized into three types: - Quantity-type policies, which include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3]. - Price-type policies, which involve a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, leading to lower financing costs for the real economy [3]. - Structural policies, which include an increase of 300 billion yuan in technology innovation loans and the establishment of 500 billion yuan in service consumption loans, targeting specific sectors for support [4]. Policy Effects - In the short term, the monetary policy aims to stabilize expectations by alleviating liquidity pressures on financial institutions and enterprises through measures like lowering the structural monetary policy tool rate by 0.25 percentage points [5]. - In the long term, the focus shifts to promoting transformation, with increased loan quotas for technology innovation and service consumption aimed at upgrading industries and consumption [6]. Future Outlook - Future efforts should focus on enhancing policy coordination between monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies to create a comprehensive support system for innovation and growth [7]. - There is a need to improve the design of structural tools and ensure that financial institutions are incentivized to support technology innovation and inclusive finance [7].