Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on the research and production of nylon 6, nylon 66, and environmentally friendly recycled nylon products, indicating a commitment to innovation and sustainability in the textile industry [1] Company Overview - The main products of the company include nylon filament, grey fabric, and functional finished fabrics, which are utilized in various sectors such as apparel, home textiles, industrial applications, and special applications [1] - The characteristics of nylon, including lightweight, high strength, wear resistance, and flexibility, suggest potential applications in the field of humanoid robotics [1]

Group 1 - As of August 4, the number of PTA futures warehouse receipts on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decreased by 600 to 27,131 [1] - Yisheng Hainan is undergoing maintenance on its 2 million tons capacity, while Yisheng New Materials has temporarily reduced its output by 7.2 million tons, and Jiaxing Petrochemical may also undergo maintenance on its 2.2 million tons capacity [1] - The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.51% as of July 31, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous period, with average terminal weaving order days increasing by 0.39 days to 7.33 days [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures noted that PTA prices have fallen to support levels, with processing fees remaining low around 100, and significant maintenance at large facilities has offset the recent production of 1.6 million tons at Hailun Petrochemical [2] - The spot trading remains relatively low, with basis dropping to a discount of around 10, while downstream operating rates have decreased to 88.1%, leading to a slowdown in purchasing rhythm [2] - Wenkang Futures indicated that while maintenance volumes are expected to increase in August, new facilities are coming online, leading to expectations of continued inventory accumulation and limited processing fee space [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the viscose staple fiber industry, particularly in China, highlighting recent market dynamics and price changes related to viscose yarn and fabric [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Recent price increases in the domestic viscose staple fiber market are attributed to a surge in orders from India and Pakistan, particularly for viscose yarn and fabric, leading to a price rise from 15,100-15,400 RMB to approximately 15,800-16,000 RMB [2][3]. - The inventory levels of yarn manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are decreasing, indicating an improvement in the supply-demand relationship within the industry [2]. - Major producers, such as Tangshan Sanyou and Shandong Yamei, are responding to market demand by completing export orders and resuming production, respectively, which reflects a positive market response [2][4]. - There is a noticeable upward trend in orders from downstream enterprises, suggesting a potential for sustained demand growth in the viscose staple fiber sector [2]. Additional Important Content - The competitive pricing of viscose yarn in China is a significant factor driving the influx of overseas orders, showcasing the cost advantages of Chinese manufacturers in this segment [2][3]. - The overall market sentiment indicates a recovery, with both domestic and international demand contributing to the positive outlook for the viscose staple fiber industry [4].

Group 1 - The stock price of Hengyi Petrochemical is reported at 5.97 yuan, down 0.33% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 5.94 to 5.99 yuan and a transaction volume of 49 million yuan [1] - Hengyi Petrochemical's main business includes the chemical fiber industry, petrochemical industry, and supply chain services, with the chemical fiber sector accounting for over 50% of its operations [1] - The company is categorized within the chemical fiber industry sector and also has attributes related to the Guangxi region and being a broken net stock [1] Group 2 - As of July 31, the company has repurchased approximately 29.24 million shares, representing 0.81% of the total share capital, with a total repurchase amount of about 185 million yuan [1] - The repurchase price range was between 5.97 yuan and 6.62 yuan [1] - On August 4, the net inflow of main funds was 11.98 million yuan, while there was a net outflow of 6.32 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Zhongfu Shenying is 21.91 yuan, an increase of 1.53% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The company operates in the chemical fiber industry, focusing on the research and production of high-performance carbon fiber [1] - General Manager Chen Qiufei stated that with the support of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the company's R&D investment has achieved a leap forward, establishing the world's largest single high-performance carbon fiber production base [1] Group 2 - The company has successfully achieved mass production of the T1100 grade ultra-high strength carbon fiber at a hundred-ton level [1] - It has developed internationally leading high-strength, high-modulus, and high-toughness M50X and M55X grade carbon fibers [1] - The products are widely used in national strategic fields such as aerospace and new energy [1] Group 3 - On August 4, the net outflow of main funds was 4.3129 million yuan, with a net outflow of 38.4883 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The polyester staple fiber market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost under pressure. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will follow the cost trend. PTA has large - scale device maintenance plans in August, but with the commissioning of new devices, the monthly output is expected to change little. The supply of ethylene glycol is recovering well, and the domestic operating rate has room for improvement, which will put pressure on the cost - end price. In the off - season, there will still be device maintenance for polyester staple fiber in August, the operating rate is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. Overall, the supply and demand of polyester staple fiber are both weak, and the cost - end is under pressure [65]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyester Staple Fiber Price: Fluctuating with Crude Oil Price - **Spot and Futures Price Changes**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PF main contract closing price dropped from 6514 yuan/ton to 6382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 132 yuan/ton or 2.0%. The 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6770 yuan/ton to 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The basis decreased from 256 yuan/ton to 218 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton or 14.8% [4]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PF01 - PF05 spread changed from - 12 yuan/ton to - 56 yuan/ton, a change of - 44 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 366.7%. The PF05 - PF09 spread changed from - 26 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton, a change of 146 yuan/ton with a growth rate of - 561.5%. The PF09 - PF01 spread changed from 38 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, a change of - 102 yuan/ton with a growth rate of - 268.4% [9]. - **Raw Material Price Changes**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PTA closing price increased from 4710 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton or 0.7%. The MEG closing price increased from 4277 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton or 3.0%. The PX closing price increased from 6672 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton or 2.1% [12]. 2. Polyester Staple Fiber Cost - End: Focus on Device Recovery - **PTA Situation**: As of August 1, the PTA operating load was 72.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1 percentage points. Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton device stopped due to an accident, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 - million - ton device was under planned maintenance. Some PTA devices of Yisheng New Materials, Yisheng Dahua, and Yihua reduced their loads recently. A line of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton/year new PTA device was put into production at the end of July and produced products, and it was included in the production capacity base in August. The PTA production capacity base in the Chinese mainland was adjusted to 9171.5 million tons on August 1, 2025. In June 2025, the PTA output was 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 500,000 tons or 8.7%, and a month - on - month increase of 350,000 tons or 5.9%. In June 2025, China's PTA exports were 255,200 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 3.78% from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 1.8568 million tons, a decrease of 377,700 tons or 16.90% compared with the same period last year [13][14]. - **MEG Situation**: As of August 1, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 68.64% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 74.04% (a month - on - month increase of 5.79%). In June 2025, the output of ethylene glycol produced by the ethylene method was 981,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The output of ethylene glycol produced by the syngas method was 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The domestic ethylene glycol output was 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. In June 2025, China's ethylene glycol imports were 617,800 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 3.8454 million tons. The import volume increased by 2.34% month - on - month and decreased by 1.30% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 19.91% compared with the same period last year. On July 28, the MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was about 521,000 tons [18][21]. 3. Polyester Staple Fiber Supply - End: In the Off - Season - **Operating Load**: As of August 1, the operating load of polyester staple fiber was 90.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 percentage points. Some polyester staple fiber devices still have maintenance plans in the future [65]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 13.5 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 days [31]. 4. Polyester Staple Fiber Demand - End: Weak Orders - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of August 1, the operating rate of polyester yarn was 61.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3 percentage points. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 61%, a month - on - month decrease of 5 percentage points [35]. - **Output and Consumption**: According to national statistics, in June 2025, the yarn output of enterprises above designated size was 2.065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.84%. From January to June, the yarn output was 11.398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. In June 2025, the cloth output of enterprises above designated size was 2.78 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% and a month - on - month increase of 4.12%. The cumulative cloth output from January to June was 15.37 billion square meters, the same as the same period last year. In June 2025, China's exports of uncombed polyester staple fiber (primary + recycled) were 141,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons or 11.88% from the previous month, with an average export price of 903.01 US dollars/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 809,400 tons, an increase of 184,200 tons or 29.46% compared with the same period last year [40][45]. - **Inventory of Intermediate Products**: As of June 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.23 days, an increase of 4.89 days from the end of last month. The cloth inventory was 36.61 days, an increase of 3.72 days from the end of last month. In the off - season, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises continued to increase [42]. 5. Polyester Staple Fiber Terminal Demand: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In June, textile and garment exports were 27.31 billion US dollars, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.1%. Among them, textile exports were 12.05 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.6%. Garment exports were 15.27 billion US dollars, an increase of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 12.4%. From January to June, the cumulative textile and garment exports were 143.98 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.8%. Among them, textile exports were 70.52 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.8%, and garment exports were 73.46 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.2%. Due to the slowdown of exports from ASEAN and South Asia to the US, the demand for importing yarn and fabrics decreased, resulting in a 1.9% and 1.6% decrease in China's textile intermediate product exports in May and June respectively, which dragged down the overall exports [50]. - **Domestic Consumption**: From January to June 2025, the national online retail sales were 7.4295 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods were 6.1191 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, accounting for 24.9% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. In the online retail sales of physical goods, the sales of food, clothing, and daily necessities increased by 15.7%, 1.4%, and 5.3% respectively. In June 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 4.2287 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 3.7649 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 22.199 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.5% [53]. 6. Polyester Staple Fiber Positioning Situation - **Futures Positioning**: As of July 31, 2025, the positions of PF2601, PF2605, and PF2509 were 12,354 lots, 69 lots, and 83,202 lots respectively. Compared with July 24, 2025, the positions of PF2601 increased by 5,951 lots, PF2605 increased by 1 lot, and PF2509 decreased by 24,592 lots. Compared with July 31, 2024, the positions of PF2601 increased by 11,411 lots, PF2605 increased by 36 lots, and PF2509 increased by 35,723 lots [57]. - **Options**: The report also presents historical volatility and historical volatility cone charts of polyester staple fiber options, but no specific data analysis is provided [59].

Core Viewpoint - Sanwei Co., Ltd. announced the convening of its 18th meeting of the 5th Board of Directors on August 4, 2025, to discuss various proposals, including the election of directors responsible for company affairs [2]. Group 1: Company Financials - For the fiscal year 2024, Sanwei Co., Ltd.'s revenue composition is as follows: BDO and calcium carbide account for 32.86%, polyester fiber accounts for 32.56%, the rubber industry accounts for 26.18%, rail transit accounts for 4.78%, and other segments account for 3.36% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA (TA509), it is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply - side second - quarter centralized maintenance has ended, downstream polyester is weakening in the off - season, and factors such as tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. In the third quarter, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and PTA should be short - positioned in the medium - and long - term [1]. - For p - xylene (PX509), it is also in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. After the third - quarter centralized maintenance ends, the supply - side load recovers, downstream polyester starts to weaken in the off - season, and factors like tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. The subsequent price center is likely to weaken, and it can be short - tested in the third quarter [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview and Strategy - **Supply**: PX and PTA device maintenance plans are few in the third quarter. PE and PTA loads are at a moderately high level, and new devices are put into production smoothly. Supply will be sufficient in the second half of the year [12]. - **Demand**: Polyester starts at around 88% recently, with inventory at a moderately high level after restocking, but profit is weak. Terminal data is average, and the demand in the peak season this year may not be too optimistic [12]. - **Spot**: PTA spot basis is weak, with the spot premium over the 09 - contract at about 0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Valuation**: Recent valuation changes are small, currently oscillating around 200 US dollars/ton in 2018, and the spot processing fee is about 200 yuan/ton. The industrial chain valuation is neutral, and whether it can be maintained depends on the polyester's start - up rate on the demand side [12]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Against the background of relatively cheap crude oil on the cost side, PTA is considered bearish in the medium - and long - term. Near the peak season, the peak - season expectation may bring a rebound. In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly, but in the medium - and long - term, it should be treated bearishly, and it is suitable to hold PTA as a short - position in energy - chemical or commodity portfolios [12]. 3.2 Market Review: July Market Trends - PTA prices oscillated in July, with the price center slightly rising following the cost - side crude oil. From the supply - demand perspective, there were no significant highlights in July, with weak off - season demand and compressed overall valuation. Affected by strong commodity macro - sentiment and rising crude oil prices, it showed an oscillating upward trend with small self - fluctuations [18]. 3.3 PX Fundamental Analysis - **Device Changes**: The Xianglongdao project had no progress in the first half of the year. Recently, the device is in line with expectations, and the PX load has been rising in the third quarter, returning to the normal level range of previous years. The market trading focus has shifted to the impact of domestic macro - policies on commodities, and the supply - demand may be balanced in the third quarter [28]. - **Profit**: The PX processing fee is around 260 US dollars/ton recently, remaining at a high level this year. If the supply - demand remains balanced, PXN may oscillate in this range, and attention should be paid to whether demand can effectively support it [43]. 3.4 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up Rate**: The effective start - up rate is 80%. Recently, multiple devices have been overhauled as planned, and the PTA load is at a normal level. There are few overhaul plans in the third quarter, and the impact of new device production on this year's supply - demand pattern may be limited [61]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton, which is currently in a neutral position. As supply recovers, the basis weakens, and the spot processing fee is compressed [62]. 3.5 Polyester Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up**: Polyester starts at 88%. Due to inventory pressure in the off - season, polyester factories have cut production. As the off - season ends, attention should be paid to the inventory performance before the Peak Season. Whether the demand can return to a high load in the peak season may be the core factor for the industrial chain's valuation [69]. - **Profit**: The profit of polyester bottle chips has been at the bottom of the historical level, resulting in low start - up rates and possible post - ponement of new device production. Most polyester varieties have poor profits due to strong raw material prices [72]. - **Inventory**: After terminal restocking, the polyester burden has been digested to some extent. Currently, terminal demand confidence is insufficient, and short - term production and sales are difficult to maintain. Polyester is likely to accumulate inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, which will greatly affect the expectation of peak - season load [87]. 3.6 Terminal Weaving Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up**: The weaving start - up rate is 58%. The terminal situation is average in terms of order index, start - up, and inventory data. Domestic macro - policies have led to strong raw material prices, which may further compress terminal demand expectations. Although the peak season is approaching, the overall situation may not be very optimistic [93]. - **Export**: The export data of clothing and textile products shows certain fluctuations, and the trade situation is affected by various factors such as tariffs [102][110]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PX**: The supply - demand is basically balanced in the third quarter, with production, import, and consumption showing certain trends and year - on - year changes [121]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is also analyzed in the balance sheet, including production, import, consumption, and inventory changes, etc. Production is estimated based on device overhauls and new device commissions, and import and export are inferred according to trade contracts and price differences [121]. 3.8 Basis and Spread Analysis - **PX**: The basis and spread of the PX09 contract show certain trends, which can provide arbitrage opportunities and reflect market supply - demand and price relationships [125]. - **PTA**: The basis and spread of PTA contracts (such as TA01, TA09, etc.) also show different trends, having an impact on trading strategies and market expectations [126][135]. 3.9 Position and Trading Volume Analysis - **PX**: The position and trading volume of the PX09 contract show certain changes, which can reflect market participation and trading sentiment [140]. - **PTA**: The position and trading volume of the PTA09 contract also show corresponding trends, affecting price fluctuations and market supply - demand relationships [140].

期货研究报告|PX&PTA&PF&PR 月报 2025-08-03 8 月 PX 供应恢复，关注成本端支撑 市场分析 价格和基差方面，7 月 PX 和 PTA 价格月初偏弱运行，随后大幅上涨，月底回落。月 初盘面震荡偏弱，需求端笼罩在淡季减产的氛围中；随后月中在反内卷政策预期下宏 观情绪大幅改善，商品普涨，PX/PTA 价格跟随上涨，PXN 从 260 美元/吨附近反弹至 280 美元/吨，终端也在原料涨价效应下集中补库；月底，在政治局会议和中美经贸谈 判落地后市场情绪回落，PX/PTA 价格回落，在现货供应逐步宽松以及主流供应商出货 下，PTA 现货基差大幅下降，PTA 现货加工费维持低位。PR 和 PF 方面，7 月原油偏强 支撑，国内受供给侧改革、"反内卷"等宏观利好支撑，聚酯原料先弱后强，聚酯瓶片市 场随原料先抑后扬运行，PF 现货加工利润整体转弱，瓶片加工费在减产下有所修复。 汽油和芳烃方面，7 月汽油裂解价差偏弱运行，美国汽油库存近五年季节性高位，汽油 市场对 PX 影响有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过多的期待。3~7 月韩国出 口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX 有明显下降。7 月短流 ...

银河证券研报认为，长期来看，涤纶长丝终端纺织服装需求增速相对稳健，行业投产高峰已过，龙头自 律约束下，未来行业供应或更有序，目前涤纶长丝价差仍处于历史偏低水平运行，存向上修复空间。短 期来看，目前涤纶长丝生产企业、织造企业原料备货和坯布库存均处于偏低水平，参照季节性规律，下 半年需求旺季有望自8月逐步启动。此外，2025年四季度原油累库预期暂难以证伪，预计成本端上行空 间有限。"反内卷"浪潮下涤纶长丝周期弹性值得关注。 ...