恒天然：7月15日全球乳品贸易（GDT）拍卖价格指数上升1.1%，奶粉各合同期FAS拍卖均价4,380美元/ 吨。 批发奶粉价格指数上升1.7%，报3,928美元/吨。 ...

活动在融合巴蜀特色的运动舞蹈表演中拉开序幕。主持人介绍与会嘉宾后，伊利集团副总裁苏玉峰致 辞："世运会代表着一种追求健康与活力的生活态度，这与本次赛事的赞助品牌金典，倡导有机生活的 品牌理念高度一致。在本次赛事期间，我们特别推出金典高蛋白桶产品，旨在帮助消费者在运动后更加 轻松地补充营养，保持活力。金典将与成都世运会执委会携手，与各个合作商伙伴并肩，做好本次赛事 的基础保障工作。" 成都世运会执委会宣传部（开闭幕式部）党组成员何小梅表达了对此次双方合作的期许。 世界运动会是全球非奥运项目竞技舞台，也是弘扬体育精神、促进文化交流与展现城市魅力的窗口。全 球参与者齐聚成都，对营养健康保障有极高要求。作为成都世运会官方指定乳制品，金典将提供全方位 营养支持，既支撑"简约、安全、精彩"办赛要求，也以"中国品质"保障全球来宾健康，助力参与者以最 佳状态投入活动。 蓉城盛夏，生机盎然。7月15日上午，2025年第12届世界运动会官方指定乳制品签约发布会在成都龙泉 驿区美外烽火营地隆重举行。伊利集团金典品牌与成都世运会执委会正式签约合作，将为来自全球100 余个国家和地区的运动员、教练员等提供全系列乳制品营养保障。成都世运 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The domestic economic recovery shows continued differentiation, with resilient consumer market recovery and ongoing growth in logistics volume [2][7] - As of July 11, the average duration of long-term government bonds has risen to approximately 5.4 years, while the average duration of credit bonds remains stable at about 2.2 years [8][9] - The report suggests a narrow fluctuation in interest rate bonds for Q3 2025, with a bullish outlook on long-term municipal and capital bonds [9][14] Group 2: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, and social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 8.3% year-on-year [11][13] - The report indicates a significant increase in social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [12][13] - The report anticipates a slight increase in new loans for 2025, driven by government bond financing and credit [11][13] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - China Shengmu (01432.HK) - China Shengmu is the first organic raw milk brand to obtain dual certification from China and the EU, and it is the largest organic raw milk producer in China [22][23] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the high-end organic milk market as consumer demand for healthy food increases [23][24] - The report forecasts a significant recovery in profits due to the anticipated stabilization of milk and beef prices, which have previously negatively impacted the company's financial performance [23][24] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Crystal Technology (603005.SH) - Crystal Technology is a leading supplier of WLCSP advanced packaging, focusing on CMOS image sensor chips and expanding into new fields such as optical devices and GaN devices [25][26] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the increasing demand for automotive CIS, with a projected revenue of 1.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.72% [25][26] - The report highlights the company's strong competitive advantage with a gross margin of 43.28%, which is significantly higher than its peers [26][28]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the reconstruction of investment paradigms in the food and beverage sector, driven by new consumption trends that focus on emotional value, health, and technological innovation [1][14][30] - The new consumption paradigm is characterized by a shift from traditional consumption frameworks to a model that prioritizes innovative supply and new demand creation through quality offerings [1][14][35] - The report identifies three main consumption trends: rational quality consumption, emotional value self-consumption, and technological iteration innovation [1][14][30] Group 2 - The analysis of sub-sectors indicates that traditional leaders in beer, dairy, and condiments should be evaluated through traditional consumption frameworks, while new consumption-driven sectors like snacks, tea drinks, and health products require a bottom-up approach to identify explosive changes [2][35] - In the snack sector, companies with category dividends and new channel expansions are expected to perform well, with projected revenue growth rates for various companies in Q2 2025 [4][36] - The soft drink sector shows differentiated performance across segments, with energy drinks and ready-to-drink tea expected to grow, while traditional segments face challenges [4][37] Group 3 - The dairy sector is anticipated to have stable revenue in Q2 2025, with a focus on profit elasticity once raw milk prices stabilize [4][38] - The tea drink market is experiencing high growth driven by the delivery battle, with key players like Mixue Group and Cha Bai Dao expected to thrive in the mid-price segment [4][41] - The health product sector is seeing a concentration in the B-end market, while the C-end market requires attention to high-growth single products [4][39] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include companies that align with new consumption trends, such as Wei Long, Yili, Wanchen Group, and others, indicating a focus on long-term growth opportunities despite short-term adjustments [6][35] - The report highlights the importance of supply chain optimization and product innovation for brands to remain competitive in the evolving retail landscape [30][33]

从原奶质量维度上看，报告显示我国连续17年实施生鲜乳质量安全监测，做到了抽检"全覆盖"，乳蛋白、乳脂肪含量达到奶业发达国家水平，其中头部企业 伊利原奶的核心质量指标——菌落总数实现了历史性突破。 以蛋白质、脂肪、菌落总数、体细胞这些原奶核心指标为例，2024 年，中国规模化养殖场生产的原奶乳脂率、乳蛋白率，皆满足欧盟标准的要求；体细胞 数也优于欧盟标准。以消费者们最关注的菌落总数为例，后者是指在一定条件下（如培养基、培养温度和培养时间等），每单位（如克、毫升等）检样中形 成的微生物菌落总数。牛奶的菌落总数客观全面反映牛奶在养殖端、贮存端以及运输端的设备先进水平、综合管理能力和卫生状况。而降低原奶的菌落总数 是全世界从古至今致力破解的难题，欧盟规定生鲜乳中菌落总数≤ 10 万 CFU/mL。对比伊利集团的原奶为参照，伊利在每年使用的原奶接近1000万吨的庞大 基数的基础背景下，连续两年的菌落总数平均值低于1万CFU/mL，远优于欧盟标准。这意味着，伊利完成了一项划时代的进步，上百万头奶牛年产出近千 万吨高品质牛奶。 中国农业大学教授、国家奶牛产业技术体系首席科学家李胜利表示："对于行业而言，高质量的原奶可以为我 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - Moutai has successfully achieved its operational targets for the first half of the year, which may boost industry confidence amidst weak demand [2][13] - The beer sector is expected to recover with the implementation of consumption promotion policies and adjustments to alcohol bans, leading to increased sales and upgrades [3][15] - The dairy sector is showing potential for growth due to rising beef prices and the acceleration of cattle disposal, benefiting upstream dairy companies [20][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From July 7 to July 11, the food and beverage sector rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.09% [23] - The specific performance of sub-sectors included: - Baijiu: +1.41% - Health Products: +1.37% - Beer: +1.21% - Meat Products: +1.03% - Snacks: +0.89% - Pre-processed Foods: +0.86% - Other Alcohol: +0.53% - Seasoning and Fermented Products: +0.10% - Dairy: -0.37% - Soft Drinks: -4.05% [24] Alcohol Sector Insights - The baijiu sector outperformed the overall food and beverage industry, driven by stable prices and funding [2][13] - Moutai's price stabilized at 1945 yuan, reflecting a 10 yuan increase from the previous week, which may enhance industry confidence [2][13] Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - Yanjing Beer is expected to report a 40%-50% increase in net profit for H1 2025, while Zhujiang Beer anticipates a 15%-25% rise [3][16] - The beverage sector saw a decline of 4.05%, with notable performances from China Resources Beverage (+3.6%) and Uni-President (+2.3%) [15] Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The consumer goods sector is expected to benefit from cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with strong companies in the dairy and snack categories showing promising performance [4][15] - The snack sector is projected to recover due to low comparative bases and new product launches [15][22] Investment Recommendations - Strong recommendations for leading alcohol companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [5][22] - Continued focus on companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies, including Li Gao Foods, Ximai Foods, and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22]

（文章来源：证券日报） 值得一提的是，近年来，庄园牧场在稳固西北基本盘的基础上，积极拓展市场，为公司未来发展开辟了 新的增长空间。 具体来看，庄园牧场产品自2024年进入香港市场以来，已连续六次获得客户复购订单，累计供应量近百 吨。此外，公司通过分析东南亚乳业局势和市场调研，精准定位东南亚牛奶需求增加的目标市场，于今 年2月份成功通过东南亚食品药品相关政府部门的认证审核，成为首次拿到该市场"通行证"的甘肃乳 企。首批100吨纯牛奶5月底从天津港发往东南亚市场。 7月15日，兰州庄园牧场股份有限公司（以下简称"庄园牧场"）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计 上半年归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损2600万元至3400万元，较上年同期明显改善，亏损幅度显著收 窄，去年同期亏损8782.87万元。 公告显示，2025年上半年，面对激烈的市场竞争，庄园牧场积极应对，在全产业链范围内大力推行精细 化管理与精益化运营，通过降本控费、降本增效等一系列措施，成效逐步显现。公司整体毛利率实现同 比提升，为减亏提供了核心支撑。 庄园牧场成立于2000年，是一家集奶牛养殖、技术研发、乳品加工、销售为一体的专业化乳制品生产企 业， ...

本文核心数据：销量; 中国奶酪行业渠道销量分析 我国奶酪销售渠道主要分为餐饮和零售两端，且随着西式餐饮、烘焙和新式茶饮等的兴起，奶酪的消费 场景不断增多。从2023年的数据来看，零售和餐饮渠道的奶酪销量占比大约为1:2，也就是说，2B的餐 饮渠道对奶酪销量影响较大。分渠道看，尽管零售渠道因为前述因素出现下滑，餐饮渠道的销售整体是 保持正向增长的。2020年受到疫情影响出现短暂下降，2021、2022年基本恢复，2023年较2022年增长了 5%。初步测算，2024年奶酪行业零售渠道销量为11.14万吨，餐饮渠道销量为17.3万吨。 中国奶酪行业零售端特征 在零售端，奶酪产品主要是儿童零食、成人零食、家庭烘焙佐料等，其中儿童奶酪成为主流。凯度数据 显示，儿童奶酪约占我国奶酪零售市场的比重超过50%，预计未来一段时间内将持续占据主要份额，其 中又以奶酪棒为主。 转自：前瞻产业研究院 行业主要上市公司：光明乳业(600597);伊利股份(600887);妙可蓝多(600882);天润乳业(600419);新乳业 (002946);三元股份(600429);燕塘乳业(002732)等 与此同时，零售端家庭烘焙用佐餐奶 ...

据悉，本届奶业大会以"品质与品牌，奋进中的坚守；合作与共赢，变局中的选择"为主题，现场发表了 关于学生奶、灭菌乳、焕新消费等多篇章的主旨报告。同时，围绕"奶业战略研究、乳品营养健康与消 费、特色奶产业"等内容，举办六大板块19场内容前沿、引领行业发展的研讨会。 在开幕式《胸怀炬火·赋能十五五 中国奶业擎梁者再出发仪式》上，贝因美代表和其他企业代表一起， 举起了象征中国奶业"坚守品质、匠心传承、砥砺奋进"精神的火炬，这不仅是对贝因美多年来深耕乳品 安全与品质的认可，更彰显了公司在行业低谷期勇于担当、持续投入上游建设、致力于推动奶业高质量 发展的坚定决心。 7月13日-15日，第十六届奶业大会——奶业20强(D20)论坛暨2025中国奶业展览会在厦门隆重举行。贝 因美作为中国乳业长期以来的重要、坚定力量，深度参与了大会各项环节，其精心打造的以"全家营 养，健康守护"为核心的特色展台更是受到各级领导和观众的点赞。 此外，贝因美代表还亮相大会特别设置的《稳固上游 铸牢根基 中国乳品企业厦门倡议》发布环节，共 同承诺推进奶牛产业纾困，稳定奶业基础产能，引导"稳固上游 铸牢根基"理念深入人心，有力展现了 本届奶业大会汇聚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][73]. Core Views - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on the mid-year performance of the sector. The overall sentiment is improving due to policy expectations aimed at boosting domestic demand, leading to a recovery in the liquor sector after significant declines [2][11][13]. - The beer and beverage segments are entering a peak season, with expectations for strong mid-year performance. Companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are projected to achieve substantial profit growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [14][15][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and market health for liquor companies, suggesting a shift towards internationalization and targeting younger demographics [2][11][13]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor index rose by 1.4% this week, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye focusing on brand strength and service enhancement. The sector is expected to recover from low valuations, although demand pressures remain significant [2][11][13]. - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, which have demonstrated strong risk resilience [2][11][13]. Consumer Goods - The beer segment is expected to benefit from seasonal demand, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer forecasting a 40% to 50% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [14][15]. - The snack sector is experiencing volatility, with a recommendation for companies with strong performance certainty, such as Wei Long and Yan Jin [16]. - In the condiment sector, leading companies are expected to show resilience, with a focus on policy developments that could enhance the restaurant industry's vitality [17]. Frozen Foods and Dairy - Frozen food companies are actively developing new products to cater to both B2B and B2C markets, with a focus on convenience and smaller packaging [18]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies and improved supply dynamics [19]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage expected to continue expanding their market presence [20].