Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. PPI data exceeded expectations, leading to a cooling of aggressive rate cut expectations [1][5] - The U.S. July PPI year-on-year increased to 3.3%, the highest level since February, significantly above the expected 2.5% [1][5] - The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining at a low level since November 2021 [1] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate prices are supported by short-term supply shortages, with prices expected to fluctuate between 80,000 to 90,000 yuan/ton [2][21] - The export of lithium salts from Chile is projected to increase by 40% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year by July 2025 [2][21] - The short-term supply gap in lithium is expected to support prices, although there are risks of price corrections if market sentiment wanes [2][21] Group 3 - The double coke market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with limited contradictions in the fundamentals of coking coal [3][24] - Steel production remains stable, but the profitability of steel mills has decreased due to falling steel prices [3][24] - Investors are advised to operate cautiously in the current market environment due to increasing market volatility [3][24] Group 4 - The USDA report indicates a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, leading to a decrease in expected soybean production [4][26] - The report also lowered the export forecast for U.S. soybeans, contributing to a tightening of soybean futures inventory [4][26] - The market for soybean meal is expected to remain strong due to favorable external influences, while canola meal futures have seen a significant decline [4][26] Group 5 - The central bank of China announced a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to inject medium-term liquidity [6] - The market anticipates further liquidity support from the central bank following the expiration of 300 billion yuan MLF this month [6] Group 6 - The overall scale of computing power in China ranks second globally, with plans to introduce over ten systems related to data property rights [7] - Pilot projects for data industry clusters are being deployed in cities like Shanghai and Tianjin [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways movement [2] - Iron Ore: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways movement [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways - to - bullish movement [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating provided, short - term price is expected to move sideways to bullishly [8] 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Inventory is increasing, and the impact of steel mill production restrictions in Tangshan is currently controllable. The fundamentals may improve marginally, but self - initiated production cuts are difficult due to good profits. The raw material prices are firm, and the steel futures are supported. Future focus is on production restrictions and terminal demand [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The market has revised its expectations, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. The shipping volume is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the supply is well - supported. The demand is strong, but short - term production in Tangshan is affected by the parade. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are concerns about Mongolian coal transportation, and the futures prices are strongly bullish. The supply of coking coal is insufficient, and the demand for coke is supported by good steel enterprise profits. Attention should be paid to the sixth round of price increase for coke [5][6]. - **Thermal Coal**: The demand is good, and the pit - mouth coal price is firm. The supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to move sideways to bullishly in the short term. Medium - to - long - term focus is on non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. 3. Summary by Industry Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated upward. Tangshan issued production restriction notices, with a currently controllable impact. Building materials are in the off - season with increasing inventory, while plates' sentiment has marginally improved due to production restrictions [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials' production and sales are in the off - season, and inventory is rising slightly. Plates are affected by Tangshan's production restrictions. Steel mill production restrictions before the parade may improve the fundamentals, but self - initiated cuts are difficult due to good profits. The raw material prices are firm, and the fundamentals have few contradictions [1]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways movement for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated upward, and spot prices rose slightly. The shipping volume decreased slightly this period, with a decline in Australia and non - mainstream shipments and an increase in Brazilian shipments. Spot market transactions were few [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Shipping is in line with the seasonal pattern, and supply is well - supported. The iron - making water output is high, and steel mill production enthusiasm is strong. The short - term impact of the parade on Tangshan's rolling mills has not affected blast furnaces. In the long run, the supply - demand is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways movement for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices were bullish. The customs clearance volume of imported coal is high, but the restrictions on Mongolian coal transportation may affect short - term supply [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, mine production cuts and rainy seasons have led to low output and insufficient supply. For coke, the new round of price increase needs time to materialize, and the supply pressure has eased, but the output is still lower than last year. The demand is supported by good steel enterprise profits [6]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways - to - bullish movement for single - side trading of both coking coal and coke, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the price is strong. Some open - pit mines have not resumed production, and the demand for restocking is high. At ports, the inventory is decreasing, and the shipping is at a loss. The import cost has increased, and the trading activity is low [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the demand is good due to high temperatures. The price is expected to move sideways to bullishly in the short term, and medium - to - long - term focus is on non - power coal consumption and restocking [8].

Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply is expected to remain limited due to declining global oil and gas capital expenditures, with a significant reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels to $351 billion in 2021 [9][30][31] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have exacerbated concerns over energy supply, with the EU planning to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [10][31] - Brent crude oil prices increased to $71.97 per barrel, up 2.95% week-on-week, while WTI prices rose to $67.93 per barrel, up 2.46% [11][32] Coal Industry - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) rose to 628 RMB/ton, a 1.06% increase from the previous week, driven by improved demand and trading conditions [12][13] - Coal production is gradually recovering, with total inventory at ports reported at 26.9 million tons, down 2.46% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [12][13] - The domestic coal consumption for key power plants increased to 4.88 million tons per day, a 6.09% rise from the previous week, reflecting higher electricity demand due to ongoing high temperatures [12][13] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have seen a slight increase, with the price for Shanxi main coking coal at 1,350 RMB/ton, up 9.76% week-on-week, as supply conditions improve [14][15] - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal is improving, with increased orders from steel mills and a decrease in inventory levels [14][15] Natural Gas - The EIA projects that U.S. natural gas production and consumption will reach record highs in 2025, with expected consumption of 91.4 billion cubic feet per day [16][17] - U.S. natural gas prices decreased to $3.33 per million British thermal units, down 2.9% from the previous week, while European gas prices increased [16][17] - The EU has reached an agreement on a natural gas price cap, which may lead to liquidity issues and potential supply shortages [17] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is experiencing a recovery in demand due to increased capital expenditures from major oil companies, which are projected to reach 581.738 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6% since 2018 [18][19] - The number of active drilling rigs globally decreased to 1,576, with a notable decline in the Middle East and the U.S. [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the macro - geopolitical situation boosts energy prices, providing support. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. However, the demand for rebar in the off - season is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the next two weeks. Hot - rolled coil demand shows some resilience, and its inventory turns from increasing to decreasing. Steel prices still face the pressure of short - term supply - demand weakening, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil rebounds, and the arrival volume increases. Currently, steel mills' profits are good, and the daily output of molten iron increases. But as the off - season deepens, the terminal demand weakens, and the supply increment may be greater than the demand increment. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and be bearish on rebounds [4]. - For coking coal and coke, as some previously减产 mines resume production, the production of coking coal increases slightly. The fourth round of price cuts for coke starts, and the daily output of molten iron increases, giving some support to coking coal and coke. The prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Geopolitical situations disturb the market, and steel prices oscillate at a low level. The energy price increase provides support for commodities. The industry continues to reduce inventory, with rebar inventory reduction slowing down and hot - rolled coil inventory turning from increasing to decreasing. Market transactions are concentrated in the low - price area [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output is 212.18 tons (up 2.22% month - on - month, down 7.96% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output is 325.45 tons (up 0.25% month - on - month, up 1.47% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increases while electric furnace output decreases [16][18][23]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate is 83.82% (up 0.49% month - on - month, up 2.16% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate is 70.93% (down 4.16% month - on - month, up 0.75% year - on - year) [28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is + 155 yuan/ton (up 14.81% week - on - week, up 59.79% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is + 100 yuan/ton (up 66.67% week - on - week, up 4.17% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 219.19 tons (down 0.35% month - on - month, down 7.04% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 330.69 tons (up 3.38% month - on - month, up 3.68% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 551.07 tons (down 1.26% month - on - month, down 28.95% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 340.17 tons (down 1.52% month - on - month, down 18.15% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: Real estate sales volume increases slightly at a low level, and land market transactions decrease month - on - month. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 3009.8 tons (up 8.81% month - on - month, up 6.25% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2562.7 tons (up 7.47% month - on - month, up 3.63% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of molten iron is 242.18 tons (up 0.57 tons month - on - month, up 2.24 tons year - on - year), and the port dredging volume is 313.56 tons (up 4.09% month - on - month, up 3.21% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports is 13894.16 tons (down 0.28% month - on - month, down 6.92% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 8936.24 tons (up 1.56% month - on - month, down 3.02% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines is 84.49% (up 0.93% month - on - month, down 3.41% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants is 61.34% (up 6.94% month - on - month, down 7.86% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 9.52 tons (down 12.31% month - on - month, down 38.27% year - on - year) [77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is - 23 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate is 73.42% (down 0.73% month - on - month, up 0.12% year - on - year) [85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Independent coking plant coking coal inventory is 665.62 tons (down 0.55% month - on - month, down 10.82% year - on - year), steel mill coking coal inventory is 774.45 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, up 2.37% year - on - year), and coking coal port inventory is 303.31 tons (down 2.79% month - on - month, up 29.34% year - on - year) [91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Independent coking plant coke inventory is 80.93 tons (down 7.31% month - on - month, up 126.38% year - on - year), steel mill coke inventory is 634.2 tons (down 1.34% month - on - month, up 14.04% year - on - year), and coke port inventory is 203.11 tons (unchanged month - on - month, down 0.12% year - on - year) [97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi is 1170 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1030 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 720 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil shrinks, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil widens slightly. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke shrinks, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widens slightly [105][111].

Investment Strategy - Oil prices are expected to remain high due to limited supply and escalating geopolitical conflicts, particularly the recent Israel-Iran conflict which has led to a significant increase in oil prices [11][28][29] - Global oil and gas capital expenditures have been declining since 2015, with a notable reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [9][28] - The active rig count in the US remains low, which will slow down the release of oil and gas production capacity in the short term [9][28] Oil Market - Brent crude oil spot price increased to $70.96 per barrel, up 5.16% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil spot price rose to $67.89 per barrel, up 7.17% [11][30] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, pose a risk of supply disruptions, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport [11][29] Coal Market - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 609 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% week-on-week, indicating weak terminal demand [12][13] - The overall coal market is under pressure due to weak demand from the cement and non-electric industries, with procurement activities remaining slow [12][13] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have decreased, with the price for Jizhou coking coal reported at 1,310 RMB per ton, down 4.96% week-on-week, leading to increased losses for coking enterprises [14][15] - The supply of coking coal remains relatively ample, but demand from downstream steel mills is weak, contributing to a bearish market outlook [14][15] Natural Gas Market - Russia's natural gas exports to China are expected to increase by 7 billion cubic meters by 2025, driven by pipeline expansions [16] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas decreased to $3.55 per million British thermal units, down 4.7% week-on-week, while European gas prices have shown an upward trend [16][17] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is experiencing a recovery due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies aimed at boosting oil and gas production [18][19] - The global active rig count decreased to 1,576 units, indicating a slight contraction in drilling activities, particularly in the Middle East [19]

Report Overview - The report is the "Huajin Futures Black Raw Materials Weekly Report" released on May 16, 2025, covering iron ore and coking coal and coke markets [1] 1. Iron Ore Market 1.1 Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 1.2 Core View - Iron ore supply is abundant, while the upward potential of prices is limited. The iron ore market is expected to remain stable with a slight decline in the short - term. The black market is unlikely to continue to rise significantly in the third quarter [2][33] 1.3 Summary by Section 1.3.1 Overseas Supply - Australian and Brazilian shipments are at normal levels, with a decline of 117.9 tons to 2522.5 tons this period. Non - Australian and Brazilian shipments have rebounded by 96.4 tons to about 606.5 tons, and the arrival volume is expected to remain average in the third quarter [5] 1.3.2 Four Major Mines' Shipments - Fortescue's FY25Q3 iron ore shipments reached 4610 tons, a 7% quarter - on - quarter decrease, with a 2025 fiscal year shipment target of 1.9 - 2 billion tons. Vale's 25Q1 production was 6766 tons, a 4.5% year - on - year decrease, and the annual production target remains at 3.25 - 3.35 billion tons. Rio Tinto's 25Q1 production was 6977 tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and the annual shipment target remains at 3.23 - 3.38 billion tons. BHP's FY25Q3 Pilbara iron ore production was 6780 tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year target remains at 2.82 - 2.94 billion tons [15] 1.3.3 Demand - Iron ore demand is supported by high - level iron - making water production. This week, iron - making water production remained high, with a decline of 0.87 tons to about 244.77 tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased, and the port clearance volume remained high [21] 1.3.4 Inventory - Sinter powder inventory is at a normal level, and the total port inventory is stable with a slight decline. This week, the total port inventory decreased by 71.32 tons to 14166.09 tons. Steel mill's imported sinter powder inventory increased by 7.58 tons to 1301.03 tons [27][31] 1.3.5 Futures and Spot Structure - The futures and spot prices fluctuated widely, and the far - month prices rose significantly. It is expected that the black market will not continue to rise significantly in the third quarter [33] 1.3.6 Relationship with Foreign Exchange - Powell said the Fed needs to further observe market data to decide whether to cut interest rates, and the US dollar index has stabilized [40] 1.3.7 Relationship with Non - mainstream Region Shipments - Not further elaborated in the report 2. Coking Coal and Coke Market 2.1 Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2.2 Core View - The supply of coking coal and coke is in excess, and the prices of both futures and spot have no momentum for continuous rebound. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply reduction [45] 2.3 Summary by Section 2.3.1 Demand and Supply - The passing vehicle numbers at the Ganqimaodu and Ceke ports are stable. Iron - making water production remains high. Coke enterprises proposed the first - round price cut of 50 yuan/ton, and the coking profit has rebounded but is still weak. Coke production has continued to rise to the average level [45] 2.3.2 Coking Coal Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is at a low level, decreasing by 31.69 tons to 884.93 tons this week. Steel mill's coking coal inventory increased slightly by 4 tons to about 791.21 tons. Port imported coking coal inventory decreased continuously and then stabilized this week, increasing by 8.28 tons to 306.09 tons. Mine clean coal inventory is at a high level and continued to rise this week [54][57] 2.3.3 Coking Coal Term Structure - The supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, the price is oscillating at the bottom, and the downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor. There is no substantial turning point in the short term [63] 2.3.4 Coke Inventory - The second - round coke price increase has not materialized. This week, some enterprises proposed the first - round price cut of 50 yuan/ton. Coking profit has continued to rebound, independent coking production has continued to rise to the average level, steel mill's demand is strong, and the available days of coke inventory have continued to decline. This week, the total coke inventory decreased slightly, iron - making water production remained stable, and the national average coking profit was about 7 yuan/ton [66][71] 2.3.5 Coke Term Structure - Coke spot prices are oscillating at a low level, futures prices have dropped significantly, the basis has narrowed, and the overall structure is at par [74]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the market sentiment has improved. The steel market has returned to the fundamental logic, with the hot - rolled coil production and inventory decreasing, and the inventory of five major steel products decreasing week - on - week. The iron ore market is generally in a situation of strong supply and demand, and the long - term pattern is relatively loose. The coking coal and coke markets are weak due to high inventory, and the动力煤 market is under pressure with high inventory [1][3][6] Group 3: Summary by Different Products Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of rebar was 3118 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was 3260 yuan/ton. The spot trading was generally weak, with 100,000 tons of building materials traded nationwide. Affected by increased routine maintenance, the production and inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased week - on - week [1] - **Strategy**: The single - side strategy is to be volatile, focusing on the repair of the discount when the sentiment improves [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore was 736.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The spot trading was weak, with the total transaction volume of major ports at 1.007 million tons, a decrease of 18.33% compared with the previous day. The long - term spot transaction volume was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 23.53%. The iron - making water production reached its peak and then declined, with the daily average of 247 steel mills at 2.4477 million tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons [3] - **Strategy**: The single - side strategy is to be volatile, focusing on the repair of the discount when the sentiment improves [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. The inventory of imported Mongolian coal at the port increased. The supply of coke was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The supply of coking coal increased, and the market was pessimistic, with high - level inventory remaining stable [5][6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The decline of port coal prices slowed down, and the pit - mouth coal prices fluctuated weakly. The inventory at the port continued to accumulate, and the import market was weak. The demand for coal prices lacked support in the short term, and the supply pattern remained loose in the long term [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]