2024年，我们以「城市精酿 City Walk」为约，将蓝带啤酒的蓝色身影融入到不同城市的肌理——在海 口的椰风海韵里感受南洋旧梦，在广州CBD 见证精酿与霓虹共舞，在珠海聆听浪声与碰杯声共振，在 汕头的小公园让骑楼光影为酒液镀上金边…… 2025年，我们将视野投向更广阔的维度，2025蓝带啤酒「和时光干杯」全国巡展即将正式启幕，我们 将和您一起从城市的街巷走进时光的长流，让每一口蓝带啤酒都成为连接过去、现在与未来的桥，在时 光的漫行里，致敬每一个特别时刻。 01 漫步时光长廊，触摸两个世纪的酿造记忆 去年，蓝带啤酒在诞生180周年之际，推出了限时亮相的快闪品牌创意馆"蓝盒子"，开启了一场穿越时 光的City Walk，我们走进了街头巷尾，让品牌成为城市记忆的一部分。 不仅如此，蓝带啤酒还能让大家感受时光的味道，一边是源自1844年的蓝带经典款啤酒，另一边则是 融入当下鲜活表达的创新精酿啤酒，就像是一场跨越时空的味觉派对。 如果你想要一个独一无二的"当下"，还可以亲手打造一款定制啤酒，最后别忘了在时光合影装置里留下 这个难忘的瞬间，让微醺定格在此刻。 02 与时光干杯，寻找生活与精神的共鸣 时光，让蓝带啤酒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region's Urumqi City is enhancing market regulation and safety measures in preparation for the 2025 Tachen Urumqi Beer Festival and the summer tourism season, focusing on food safety and price transparency [1][2] Group 1: Market Regulation and Safety Measures - The Urumqi Market Supervision Administration is implementing a tourism market rectification action to ensure compliance with food safety and pricing regulations at various tourist attractions [1] - The administration emphasizes the importance of fair pricing practices, requiring retailers to exercise their pricing rights legally and transparently, especially during the beer festival and summer tourism [1] - Hotels and accommodation providers are mandated to display pricing standards prominently and adhere to their pricing commitments without arbitrary increases after bookings [1] Group 2: Food Safety Initiatives - The Urumqi Market Supervision Administration has set up food safety information booths at tourist sites to promote food safety knowledge and conducted training for food service personnel [2] - This year, the administration has organized three promotional events at major scenic spots, distributing over 1,500 informational materials and training more than 100 industry personnel [2] - Future plans include comprehensive inspections of food safety risks in tourist areas, utilizing a problem list and accountability measures to ensure issues are addressed effectively [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Baijiu Market - The baijiu market is currently in a low season, with sales accounting for less than 5% of the annual total, primarily driven by events like graduation banquets [1][3] - There is a slight increase in demand for liquor priced below 300 yuan, with expectations for improved sales in the second half of the year, particularly around the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1][4] - Inventory pressure is evident, but it is expected to ease after October, reducing the risk of stockpiling or unsold goods before the 2026 Spring Festival [1][5] Company Performance: Moutai and Other Leading Brands - Moutai maintains profitability for distributors through a tiered pricing strategy, with wholesale prices for its flagship products ranging from 1,900 to 2,000 yuan, and actual prices exceeding 2,000 yuan [1][6][7] - The overall performance expectation for the baijiu market in Q2 is low, with many companies struggling to sustain growth; however, leading brands like Moutai are still expected to show growth [1][8] - Current valuations for baijiu companies are between 13 to 16 times earnings, which is considered normal; valuations could rise to 15 to 20 times if external risks are mitigated [1][9] Market Dynamics and Future Expectations - The baijiu market is expected to see improved sales in the second half of the year, with a potential recovery in gifting demand during the festive season [1][4] - The overall sentiment in the market is improving, with cash flow pressures on distributors easing, which may lead to better sales performance [1][10] Other Notable Insights - The beer sector is performing well, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer reporting net profit growth of 25% to 35% and 15% to 25%, respectively [3][11] - The seasoning industry is stabilizing, with companies like Haitian Flavor Industry expected to achieve mid-single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit growth [3][24] - The snack food sector is also showing strong growth, with companies like Yanjin and Weilong performing well despite some cost pressures [3][15] Conclusion - The baijiu market is currently facing challenges due to seasonal factors but is expected to recover in the latter half of the year, particularly if gifting demand returns to normal levels. Leading brands like Moutai are positioned to maintain profitability through strategic pricing and product offerings. The overall sentiment in the food and beverage industry remains cautiously optimistic, with several sectors, including beer and snacks, showing robust performance.

Market Overview - The A-share market shows a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3510.18, up 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% to 10696.10 [2][3] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 681061 billion, with a PE ratio of 12.56 and a PB ratio of 1.30 [3] Financial Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook for several companies, with Dongpeng Beverage expected to achieve a revenue growth of 35-38% and a profit increase of 33-42% in the first half of 2025 [36] - Zhujiang Beer anticipates a net profit growth of 15-25% for the same period, reflecting a stable performance in the beverage sector [38] - Liugong is projected to see a net profit increase of 20-30% in the first half of 2025, driven by domestic market recovery and product upgrades [40] Industry Dynamics - The EV battery sector is highlighted, with EVTank reporting an expected shipment of 100 million large cylindrical batteries in 2024, and global production capacity exceeding 6 billion [31] - Chery Automobile has announced a patent for a companion robot, indicating innovation in the automotive sector [29] - Shanghai Pudong is focusing on key technologies to accelerate the gathering of critical component manufacturers, enhancing the local industrial ecosystem [34] Company Tracking - Long Cable Technology has won a bid for a cable accessory framework procurement project worth 97.165 million RMB, showcasing its competitive position in the cable accessory industry [43] - Step by Step High is expected to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 9-13 million RMB, marking a significant turnaround [45] Economic Policies - The report mentions the implementation of ten key livelihood projects in Hunan Province, with a total investment of 571.64 billion RMB, aimed at improving public welfare [46]

Group 1: Core Views - The report suggests that the food and beverage industry is expected to see a valuation recovery as market sentiment improves, with a focus on low-priced leading companies in the liquor sector and structural opportunities in the food sector [2][7][10]. Group 2: Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is experiencing a phase of demand decline due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to pressure on high-end liquor prices, while mass consumption remains stable [7][13]. - Major companies like Moutai are expected to maintain their performance due to strong brand positioning, while others are entering an adjustment phase, with varying adjustment speeds among companies [7][14]. - Q2 performance forecasts for major liquor companies indicate a range of revenue and profit changes, with Moutai expected to see a 9% increase in both revenue and profit [14][15][16]. Group 3: Food Sector - The food sector shows signs of recovery, with segments like beverages, snacks, and pet food experiencing upward trends, while beer and restaurant supply chains face structural challenges [21][24]. - The beverage industry remains vibrant with new product launches and a clear trend towards reduced sugar options, while competition intensifies [24][30]. - Dairy products are seeing mixed performance, with some segments like low-temperature dairy and cheese growing, while others face challenges [24][33]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading liquor companies with a safety margin for investment, as well as food companies that are expected to exceed mid-year performance expectations [10][28]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Nongfu Spring, Uni-President China, and Tianwei Foods, among others [10][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation within the industry, particularly in the liquor segment, where companies are actively seeking transformation amid market pressures. It emphasizes three main investment themes: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible companies benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang are expected to show strong profit growth, with Yanjing projected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a challenging half-year, with demand and policy impacts leading to a slowdown in sales. The report anticipates that the performance expectations for the mid-year and the entire year of 2025 have been largely adjusted [2]. - Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on service enhancement and transformation strategies to navigate the current market conditions. The report suggests that the upcoming month of September will be critical for assessing the impact of policies and consumer demand [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50%. Zhujiang Beer is also projected to see a profit increase of 15% to 25% [3]. - Eastroc Beverage is forecasted to generate revenue of 10.63 to 10.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33% to 42% year-on-year [3]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that companies like Youyou Foods and Miaokelando are expected to report significant profit increases, with Youyou Foods projecting a revenue growth of 40.91% to 50.77% [7]. - The overall consumer goods sector is highlighted as a space to watch for growth, particularly for companies that are innovating and expanding their market reach [7].

2025 年 07 月 13 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 食品饮料 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒承压待布局，魔芋赛道涌生机 —行业周报》-2025.7.6 《白酒持续探底，新消费标的值得重 视—行业周报》-2025.6.29 《"禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹，重视板块 底部机会—行业周报》-2025.6.22 白酒布局机会渐显，新消费择优长期持有 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：战略布局头部酒企，坚守优质新消费标的 7 月 7 日-7 月 11 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.8%，一级子行业排名第 23，与沪深 300 基本持平，子行业中白酒（+1.4%）、保健品（+1.4%）、啤酒（+1.2%）表现 相对领先。本周食品饮料行情出现变化，新消费标的高位震荡；传统消费底部有 企稳迹象。本轮白酒行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event "Beautiful Life, Book Fragrance China" held in Xiamen focuses on the theme of "New Consumption Era and High-Quality Development," aiming to explore opportunities and challenges in the new consumption trend and to contribute to sustainable development in the industry and enterprises under the new era context [1][3]. Group 1: New Development Concepts - The new development concept is seen as a fundamental guideline for solving major contradictions in the new era and achieving high-quality development in China, providing a Chinese solution to global governance challenges [3][4]. - The new development concept is positioned as a pathway to promote a community of shared future for mankind, reflecting China's wisdom and approach to global development [3]. Group 2: High-Quality Development in New Consumption Era - Traditional industries can find new growth opportunities through renewal and upgrading, but true revolutionary transformation is necessary to navigate future challenges [4]. - Key insights for high-quality development include recognizing the broader context, understanding industry cycles, and ensuring strategic alignment with organizational culture [4]. Group 3: Case Study - China Resources Beer - China Resources Beer has demonstrated strategic leadership through initiatives like the "Mushroom Strategy" and "Coastal Strategy," which have been crucial for its market dominance [4]. - Continuous self-innovation and the courage to explore new avenues are essential for maintaining strategic advantages [4]. - The leadership capabilities within China Resources Beer have significantly contributed to its strategic success [4]. Group 4: Collaborative Ecosystem for Value Creation - High-quality development requires transcending commercial boundaries to achieve resonance between social and economic values [5]. - Companies should build collaborative ecosystems that foster innovation, co-create value, and ensure safety and control, adhering to a win-win philosophy [5]. - The event also included the launch of the book "Braving the Journey" and recognized exemplary units in the "Book Fragrance Enterprise Creation Project" [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the long-term investment value of leading traditional consumer companies after adjustments [4][8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the head enterprises in traditional consumption have adjusted and now possess long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective. It notes that the performance of food stocks with new consumption characteristics will diverge in the future, focusing on companies with genuine long-term competitiveness and improvement potential [4][8]. - In the liquor sector, it is anticipated that sales pressure will remain significant due to slow macro demand recovery and limited consumption scenarios. The report recommends key companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, while keeping an eye on Wuliangye, Jiansu Yanjia, and Yingjia Gongjiu [4][8]. - For the mass consumer goods sector, the report suggests that cost advantages will support profitability, and new products and channels will drive growth. It recommends leading companies in mature sectors like dairy and beer, and highlights growth opportunities in new retail formats and categories driven by consumer trends towards self-care, health, and convenience [4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.84% increase last week, with liquor rising by 1.41%. However, it underperformed the broader market by 0.25 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries [7][43]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.73 percentage points from July 7 to July 11, 2025. The sub-industries, including liquor, beer, and snacks, also showed varying degrees of underperformance [43][44]. 3. Key Company Updates - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [12]. - Dongpeng Beverage anticipates a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a growth of 33.5% to 41.6% [13]. - Youyou Foods projects a net profit of 105 to 112 million yuan for H1 2025, marking a growth of 37.91% to 47.57% [14]. 4. Price Trends and Cost Changes - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.04 yuan/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year. The report also notes price trends for various agricultural products, including pork and soybeans [24][39][40].

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