花旗发表报告表示，将百威亚太(1876.HK)2025至2027年销售预测分别下调3%、4%及4%，以反映2025 年下半年中国业务前景较预期逊色。该行认为，去年第四季销售亦会因2026年农历新年时间较迟而受到 更大负面影响。由于经营杠杆转弱，该行将百威亚太2025至2027年核心净利润预测分别下调10%、10% 及9%，目标价由12.4港元下调至11.4港元，维持"买入"评级。花旗对中国啤酒行业的偏好次序保持不 变，依次为华润啤酒(0291.HK)、百威亚太及青岛啤酒(0168.HK)。 ...

证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 20 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业月报 淡季蓄力，复苏将至 ——啤酒行业 2025 年 12 月跟踪 相关研究： | 1. 《沉舟侧畔千帆过，露酒先发 | | --- | | 一缕春》 2026.01.13 | | 2. 《酒旗风动燕京月，U8潮涌正 | | 青春——燕京啤酒首次覆盖报 | | 告》 2025.12.12 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -6.4% -9.7% -28.9% 绝对收益 -2.7% -5.3% -5.3% ❑ 啤酒行业整体运行 2025 年 12 月啤酒行业受淡季影响呈现少产去库态势，当月产量较 9 月高 点回落，但其旺季产量与近两年同期持平，全年累计产量有望接近近年高 位，淡季短期产量下滑仅是阶段性调整。进出口方面，整体呈现"进口偏弱、 出口稳增"的差异化格局，考虑到近期人民币汇率强势、进口端高基数效应 减弱、春节错期效应，我们预期 2026 年 1 季度啤酒进口表现有望边际走强。 行业效益端，增加值、营收及利润增速较此前高位有所下行，但未出现持 续深度回落，阶段性 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the "Spring Excitement" in the snack sector, indicating a historical high relative win rate of 70% for the food and beverage sector in the 40 days leading up to the Spring Festival [7][16] - The report emphasizes that the "Spring Excitement" is not solely dependent on the annual beta of the food and beverage sector, as structural opportunities still exist despite a long-term adjustment period since 2021 [7][16] - Key catalysts for the upcoming Spring Festival include concentrated demand for gifts and gatherings, which leads to more planned channel stocking, creating a positive feedback loop of expectations and validations [7][16][28] Group 2 - In December, the food and beverage sector underperformed the market by 7.5 percentage points, with a decline of 5.2%, ranking last among 31 primary industries [7][61] - The report notes a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with snacks and soft drinks showing gains while liquor and beer experienced declines [7][61][64] - The absolute and relative valuations of the food and beverage sector are at their lowest since 2010, indicating potential investment opportunities [7][61][64] Group 3 - The report tracks the recovery of consumer confidence, with a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales in December, showing improvement from the previous month [7][63] - It highlights that the liquor sector is facing weak demand and declining prices, with the price adjustments for premium liquor nearing levels seen between 2011 and 2015 [7][63][64] - The report identifies structural differentiation in costs, with some packaging materials and agricultural products experiencing price increases [7][63][64] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include a focus on liquor stocks that have undergone a four-year adjustment period, with potential for a "valuation + performance" double bottom [7][64] - For consumer goods, the report anticipates a moderate increase in industry prices in 2026, with specific recommendations for companies like Anjuke Foods, Qianhe Flavor, and Eastroc Beverage [7][64] - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will provide a favorable environment for growth narratives, particularly in the restaurant supply chain and certain chain formats [7][64]

进入1月下旬，大消费板块业绩"利空"也相继靴子落地。就在前一天，水井坊（600779）预告年度业 绩，预计2025年营业收入同比下降42%。但预告次日，水井坊股价仅小幅调整，侧面反映出：行业悲观 现状已充分反映到前期的深度调整中。再结合白酒龙头贵州茅台（600519），近期发布市场化运营方 案，发力线上直营，致力于让更多互联网消费者买到1499元的飞天茅台酒。龙头的主动求变对行业的带 动作用值得期待。 1月20日（周二），国新办举行新闻发布会，发改委表示"将研究制定出台2026年一2030年扩大内需战略 实施方案"，还提到"正在研究制定稳岗扩容体制行动和城乡居民增收计划"，以及"将研究制定全国统一 大市场建设条例"。从"战略实施方案"到"居民增收计划"再到"统一大市场"，政策着手供给和需求两 端，，目的就是改善供给端的结构不均衡，并且增强居民的消费能力。 1月20日，大消费板块逆市反弹，房地产、港股消费涨幅领先，洋河股份（002304）、燕京啤酒 （000729）涨超2%。投资者可以左侧分批布局相关行业主题ETF，把握底部贝塔修复机会： 食品ETF华夏（159151.SZ），跟踪中证全指食品指数，完全不含白酒 ...

海报新闻记者 沈童 报道 一罐售价20元的"金星毛尖"茶啤，让这个曾经的河南村办啤酒厂在16个月内走向港交所。 数据显示，金星啤酒净利润从2023年的1220万元增长至2024年的1.25亿元，增幅约为925%。2025年前 九个月，净利润进一步增至3.05亿元，与2023年全年相比增长约24倍。 然而，招股书数据却展示了金星啤酒的正反面：一方面是毛利率从27.3%跃升至47.0%的盈利能力，另 一方面则是张氏父子在上市前夕的3.29亿元激进分红，要知道，这笔钱已经超过了该公司2025年前九个 月的净利润总额。 | 需纂]項下的[编纂]數目 | [編纂]股H股(視乎[编纂]行使與否而定) | | --- | --- | | [编纂]數目 | [编纂]股H股(可予重新分配) | | [编纂]數目 .. | 编纂]股H股(可予董新分配及視乎[编纂]行 | | | 使與否而定) | | 最高[编纂] : | 每股H股[編纂]港元,另加1.0％經紀佣金、 | | | 0.0027 % 證 監 會 交 易 徵 · 0.00565 % 香 港 | | | 聯交所交易費及0.00015%會財局交易徵費 | | | (須於申 ...

美国股票投资家杰西·劳伦斯顿·利弗莫尔在《股票作手回忆录》中警示世人："华尔街没有新鲜事，今天 发生的一切，过去已经发生过，未来还会继续发生。" 同样，啤酒也不是新鲜事物，其起源可追溯至约公元前6000年。1900年，俄罗斯技师首次在中国哈尔滨 建立了啤酒作坊，中国人开始喝上了啤酒。可以说，啤酒的历史悠久，但高端化浪潮仍在持续。 2025年8月8日，珍酒李渡集团推出首款高端精酿啤酒——牛市啤酒，也被业内称为"牛市超级啤酒"。上 市五个月多来，牛市啤酒相关话题冲上抖音热搜，并持续霸榜天猫、京东等平台中高端啤酒热销榜。 真正的财富密码，从来不止于资本市场的博弈，更在于对生命质量的长期投资。正如珍酒李渡董事长吴 向东所倡导的"悦人悦己悦生活"理念，中国股市和生活投资的K线图终将走出令人心安的稳健上行曲 线。 啤酒花成本是普通啤酒400倍 如今，随着消费市场的不断发展和全球化进程的加速推进，国内外啤酒品牌呈现出高度繁荣的态势，众 多品牌在激烈的市场竞争中纷纷崛起，形成了林立的格局。 从商业视角审视啤酒品类的发展脉络，可以说在"牛市"所营造的积极市场环境下，"牛市啤酒"横空出 世。它精准整合了啤酒品类在原料选取、酿造工 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector relative to the market index [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is expected to benefit from the extended Chinese New Year stocking period, which may lead to improved performance in Q1 2026 [5]. - The raw milk price has been stabilizing at a low level, with the average price at 3.02 CNY/kg as of January 8, 2026, indicating a potential turning point in supply and demand dynamics [5]. - The secondary market performance showed a decline of 2.10% in the food and beverage sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.53 percentage points [10]. - Key companies such as Yuanji Food and Jinxing Beer have submitted applications for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating growth and expansion in the sector [53]. Summary by Sections 1. Secondary Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.10%, ranking 25th among 31 sectors [10]. - The top five gainers included CITIC Nia, Good Idea, and others, with gains ranging from 5.05% to 8.85% [10]. 2. Major Consumer Goods and Raw Material Prices - As of January 9, 2026, the retail price of fresh milk was 12.18 CNY/liter, and yogurt was 15.88 CNY/kg, showing slight increases [26]. - The price of live pigs was 12.78 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.19% [26]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Yuanji Food reported revenues of 2.026 billion CNY and 2.561 billion CNY for 2023 and 2024, respectively, with a net profit increase of 31% in the first nine months of 2025 [53]. - Jinxing Beer achieved revenues of 3.56 billion CNY and 7.30 billion CNY for 2023 and 2024, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit [53].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the food and beverage industry experienced a downturn in performance and stock prices in 2025, with revenue growth slowing and net profit declining for the first time [2][16][23] - The food and beverage sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 831.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 0.14%, while net profit decreased by 4.57%, ranking 20th and 21st among 31 industries respectively [16][20] - The stock prices of the food and beverage sector fell by 4.72% from January to November 2025, placing it at the bottom of the performance rankings among the 31 industries [23][27] Group 2 - In the liquor industry, the report notes that channel destocking and low valuations combined with high dividend yields provide support for stock prices, despite a challenging environment due to policy impacts [3][36] - The report predicts that the white liquor industry will enter a "volume-price double kill" phase, characterized by intensified competition and market consolidation [3][36] - The report highlights that the beer sector is expected to see marginal improvements in 2026 due to cost advantages and a recovery in on-premise consumption [4][36] Group 3 - The dairy sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with low-temperature and deep-processed dairy products showing positive growth, while the overall profitability of dairy companies varies significantly [4][9] - The condiment industry is evolving towards customization driven by the rise of chain restaurants and strong retail channels, with a focus on companies that can meet tailored demands [4][9] - The frozen food sector is expected to return to positive growth as price wars ease, with companies like Anji actively exploring new sales channels [4][9] Group 4 - The soft drink market is primarily driven by functional beverages, which are seen as a high-growth segment, while the overall market growth is expected to rely on structural upgrades [4][9] - The snack industry is facing challenges with "revenue without profit," and companies with health-oriented products and strong channel advantages are recommended for attention [4][9]

Group 1: Market Activity - A total of 26 companies submitted applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last week, marking a recent high in submissions [2] - Among the 26 companies, 3 passed the hearing, and 1 company is currently in the process of an IPO [10][12] Group 2: Industry Highlights - The semiconductor and computing sectors are particularly active, with companies like Weizhao Semiconductor and Placo Electronics submitting applications [2] - Weizhao Semiconductor reported a revenue of 615 million yuan and a profit of 40.25 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025 [2] - Placo Electronics achieved a revenue of 751 million yuan and a profit of 76.11 million yuan for the same period [2] Group 3: Robotics Sector - Several robotics companies, including Yifei Intelligent and Estun, are also pursuing listings [3] - Estun is ranked first in the industrial robotics sector by revenue, with a market share of 1.7% globally [3] - TuoStar is recognized as a leader in the domestic industrial robotics market, with a revenue of 1.688 billion yuan and a net profit of 47 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025 [3] Group 4: Biopharmaceutical Sector - Multiple biopharmaceutical companies are applying for listings, including Zeling Bio and Exegenesis Bio Inc. [4][5] - Zeling Bio reported a loss of 1.19 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, while Exegenesis Bio has not yet received regulatory approval for its products [5][6] - Shanghai Shengsheng achieved a revenue of 538 million yuan and a net profit of 11.3 million yuan for the same period [4] Group 5: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is seeing significant activity, with companies like Yuanji Food and Qian Dama submitting applications [7] - Yuanji Food reported an adjusted net profit of 192 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a 31% increase year-on-year [7] - Qian Dama achieved a GMV of 14.8 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the top player in the community fresh product retail chain industry [7] Group 6: New Listings - Four new stocks were listed last week, with all experiencing price increases on their first trading day [13] - The stock of Howie Group, a global leader in CMOS image sensors, rose by 16.22% on its debut [13] - Zhaoyi Innovation, a storage chip leader, saw its stock price increase by 38.27% on its first day of trading [13]

1 月 13 日，山东省泰安市泰山区人民法院的一纸民事裁定书，将山东泰山啤酒股份有限公司推向舆论 焦点。法院正式受理其破产重整申请，标志着这家拥有 3000 余家全国专营门店的原浆啤酒企业，正式 进入司法重整程序。 多重因素的叠加最终导致资金链断裂。其一，大规模固定资产投资占用巨额流动资金。近年来，公司持 续推进扩产技改、建设印刷数码基地及佛山新厂等项目。其二，母公司及关联方的经营恶化形成拖累。 控股股东虎彩集团陷入债务危机，2025 年 6 月其旗下虎彩印艺进入破产重整程序，负债达 11.30 亿元， 虎彩集团持有的泰山啤酒全部股权也被司法冻结，资金链风险传导至子公司。其三，上市对赌失败加剧 偿债压力。2021 年 3 月，泰山啤酒与 CMC 资本、信金资本签署股东协议及上市对赌约定， 承诺 2024 年 6 月 30 日前完成合格 IPO，否则需回购股份，赎回金额含 6 亿元投资款及 12% 年化利 息。但 2023 年 2 月传出赴港 IPO 意向后，上市进程再无实质进展，对赌失败触发的回购义务成为压垮 企业的最后一根稻草。 雪上加霜的是，啤酒行业的竞争格局进一步压缩了其生存空间。2025 年 1-9 ...