Core Viewpoint - The polyethylene (PE) futures market has experienced a cooling sentiment, with prices under pressure and a weekly decline of 2.88%, closing at 6812 points, influenced by weakening crude oil prices and a supply-demand imbalance as the Chinese New Year approaches [5][23]. Supply Side - The supply side has seen a slight decrease in the number of shutdowns, with a total of approximately 370,000 tons of production capacity affected by maintenance. The operating rate for the PE industry is at 85.91%, an increase of 0.56% week-on-week, while weekly production reached 712,400 tons, up by 0.64% [8][26]. - China remains a net importer of PE, with a decrease in foreign offers and low purchasing intentions from importers. The cumulative PE export volume is 503,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9,510 tons, while imports have decreased to 5,446,300 tons, down by 237,700 tons year-on-year [10][28]. Demand Side - Demand is entering a seasonal lull as the Chinese New Year approaches, with downstream factories shutting down, leading to a decrease in overall operating rates to 33.73%, down by 4.03% [11][29]. - In the agricultural film sector, the operating rate is at 30.18%, down by 4.38%, while the PE packaging film sector is at 38.82%, down by 3.25%. The PE pipe sector has an operating rate of 23.67%, down by 4.16% [13][31]. Inventory - Domestic PE inventory has shown a significant accumulation in production enterprises, with a total inventory of 379,700 tons, an increase of 56,700 tons week-on-week. Trade inventories have slightly decreased to 23,200 tons [14][32]. Cost Side - The cost side remains uncertain due to geopolitical factors affecting crude oil prices. The upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and Iran may influence oil prices, but current trends show limited support for PE costs. The volatility in propylene and methanol futures prices has also decreased [16][34]. Summary - In the short term, the PE market is expected to lean towards a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with high production rates and accumulating inventories. The market sentiment is cautious due to the upcoming holiday and potential geopolitical risks, suggesting a recommendation for reduced positions ahead of the holiday [19][37].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-09 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :宏观情绪回落，盘面价格回调 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在71.24万吨，较上周增加0.91%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率85.91%，较上周期增加了0.56个百分点。本周期 装置情况来看，周内扬子石化、大庆石化、等企业存在新增检修计划，新增检修装置虽有增加，不过多于周后期检修，存量检修装置陆续重启，因此产能 | | | | 利用率环比上周增加。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-0.9%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-1.0%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.8%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that most provinces in China have either maintained or lowered their economic growth targets for 2026, indicating a stable policy stance compared to 2025, with a focus on structural policies in sectors like artificial intelligence, service consumption, commercial aerospace, and robotics [3][12][13] - The current period is identified as the optimal entry point for the strongest seasonal construction market, with a significant probability of entering the first benign adjustment phase in the growth industry cycle [4][14] - The report suggests that representative stocks typically experience a maximum adjustment range of 15-30% during the first benign adjustment phase, with a pattern of "decline → rebound → decline" observed historically [15][17] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on stable and certain investment opportunities, particularly in sectors with regular construction opportunities, highlighting ten key sub-sectors and a portfolio of 18 advantageous stocks [29][30] - It notes that the AI industry chain remains a core focus for 2026, although it is currently entering the first benign adjustment phase, with expectations of a 15-20% adjustment in growth style [30][31] - The report indicates that traditional consumer goods and defensive dividend stocks are experiencing a short-term rotation, which aligns with historical patterns observed during the initial phase of benign adjustments [29][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The repeated negotiations between the US and Iran have led to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, causing polyolefins to follow suit. The overall profit of polyolefins has decreased significantly, and there are no new production projects before the 05 contract. The profit of BOPP in the demand side has recovered, and the order volume is better than the same period. Therefore, a positive spread trading opportunity may emerge between PP2605 and PP2609 [17]. - The next - month forecast shows that the reference oscillation range for polyethylene (L2605) is (6700 - 7000), and for polypropylene (PP2605) is (6600 - 6900) [17]. - The strategy recommendation is to go long on the spread between PP2605 - 2609 at low prices [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: Repeated US - Iran negotiations have led to significant fluctuations in crude oil, and polyolefins have followed the oscillations [16]. - **Cost - end**: WTI crude oil rose 14.02%, Brent crude oil rose 14.43%, coal prices remained unchanged at 0.00%, methanol fell - 3.36%, ethylene rose 10.15%, propylene rose 11.04%, and propane rose 4.98%. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost - end has a greater impact [16]. - **Supply - end**: PE capacity utilization was 87.03%, a month - on - month increase of 4.42%, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.81%, and a decrease of - 9.28% compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization was 74.90%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, a year - on - year decrease of - 5.82%, and a decrease of - 19.23% compared to the five - year average. There are no new capacity plans for the polyolefin 2605 contract [16]. - **Import and Export**: In December, domestic PE imports were 1.3299 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.62%. PP imports were 205,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.83%. The export season has arrived. In December, PE exports were 92,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.27% and a year - on - year increase of 58.30%. PP exports were 230,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.89% and a year - on - year increase of 29.81% [16]. - **Demand - end**: The downstream开工 rate of PE was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of - 18.15% and a year - on - year increase of 59.86%. The downstream开工 rate of PP was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of - 5.25% and a year - on - year increase of 59.34%. It is the seasonal off - season, and the overall开工 has no highlights. However, the profit of BOPP is better than in previous years, and the order volume is also prominent, which may become an important marginal variable on the PP demand side [17]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 379,700 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 3.97% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 30.25%; PE trader inventory was 23,200 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 20.62% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 8.83%; PP production enterprise inventory was 415,800 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 11.10% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 33.57%; PP trader inventory was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 10.50% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 15.03%; PP port inventory was 63,700 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 10.41% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 11.89% [17]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the term structure, price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, and other information of LLDPE and PP contracts, as well as the spread between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, etc., and the import and export price differences and volumes of LLDPE and PP [34][47][63][65]. 3. Cost - end - The oil - based cost has rebounded slightly. Multiple charts show the prices of WTI crude oil, thermal coal, methanol, propane, etc., as well as the production margins and capacity utilization rates of PDH, MTBE, alkylation oil, etc. [79][81][83][84]. 4. Polyethylene Supply - end - The production raw material proportion and annual proportion of PE are presented. There are multiple planned PE production projects in 2026, with a total of 500,000 tons already put into production and 5.2 million tons yet to be put into production. The capacity utilization rate and maintenance loss volume of PE are also shown [125][127][132]. 5. Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - Charts show the total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, import volume, and export volume of PE [140][141][144][149]. 6. Polyethylene Demand - end - The downstream demand proportion and terminal demand proportion of PE are presented. The CPI, downstream demand cumulative year - on - year, downstream total开工 rate, and inventory - related data of PE are also shown [156][158][160]. 7. Polypropylene Supply - end - The production raw material proportion and annual proportion of PP are presented. There are multiple planned PP production projects in 2026, with 0 tons already put into production and 4.37 million tons yet to be put into production. The capacity utilization rate and maintenance loss volume of PP are also shown [175][177][180]. 8. Polypropylene Inventory & Import and Export - Charts show the total inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, port inventory, export volume, and export destination proportion of PP [194][195][200]. 9. Polypropylene Demand - end - The downstream demand proportion and terminal demand proportion of PP are presented. The downstream total开工 rate, order days, and inventory - related data of PP are also shown [206][208][210].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The plastics supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, with low upstream petrochemical inventory and a repaired basis. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. Due to new capacity coming on - stream recently and the high plastics operating rate compared to PP, along with the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch film, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On February 6, the number of maintenance units changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 90.5%, at a moderately high level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 4.03 percentage points week - on - week to 33.73%. As the Spring Festival approaches, orders and raw material inventory for agricultural films and packaging films are decreasing, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. Petrochemical inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has rebounded. New capacity has been put into production in January 2026. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. 3.2 Futures Market - The plastics 2605 contract fluctuated with a decrease in positions, with a minimum price of 6712 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6822 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6812 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.16%. The position volume decreased by 19,260 lots to 503,244 lots [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6620 - 7120 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8400 - 8980 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 8040 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On February 6, the number of maintenance units changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 90.5%, at a moderately high level. - Demand side: As of the week of February 6, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 4.03 percentage points week - on - week to 33.73%. As the Spring Festival approaches, orders and raw material inventory for agricultural films and packaging films are decreasing, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. - Inventory: On Friday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 0.5 million tons week - on - week to 42.5 million tons, 8 million tons lower than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above 68 US dollars/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 700 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 675 US dollars/ton [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 【期现行情】 期货方面： PVC2605合约减仓震荡下行，最低价4941元/吨，最高价5038元/吨，最终收盘于4981元/吨， 在20日均线上方，跌幅2.18%，持仓量减少28528手至1096311手。 基差方面： 2月6日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4770元/吨，V2605合约期货收盘价在4981元/吨， 目前基差在-211元/吨，走弱19元/吨，基差处于偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月6日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.33个百分点至79.26%，PVC开工 率继续小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降3.33个百分点，下游 主动备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，加之美国面临寒潮冲 击，PVC企业赶在春节假期前提前预售，国内出口签单继续环比走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船 货报价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 ...

中化新网讯 近日，西班牙塑料行业组织EsPlasticos发布警告称，受多重因素冲击，西班牙乃至欧洲塑料 价值链正快速丧失竞争力。 该组织指出，欧盟在全球塑料原材料生产中的份额已从2006年的22%降至2024年的12%，而亚洲占比达 57.2%。同期，欧洲塑料价值链营收从2022年的4570亿欧元下降13%至2024年的3890亿欧元。 西班牙自2023年起实施《非可重复使用塑料包装特别税》，进一步推高企业运营与合规成本。行业批评 该税费未能有效促进回收，反而使本土生产相较于"再生含量难以核查"的进口产品处于劣势。 EsPlasticos呼吁欧盟采取协调一致的市场应对措施，建议对再生塑料含量不低于30%的包装予以免税， 并加强进口产品中再生材料的溯源监管。 在回收塑料领域，受低价进口产品竞争、溯源体系不完善及能源成本高企影响，欧洲回收工厂关闭与投 资停滞情况加剧。回收贸易逆差从2018年的50亿欧元扩大至2022年的70亿欧元，加深了对进口的依赖并 抑制本土回收料需求。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6777, with a daily decline of 2.04%, the trading volume was 635,809, and the position decreased by 6,547 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 147 yesterday, compared with - 188 the day before; the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was - 51 yesterday, compared with - 57 the day before [1]. - **Important Spot Prices**: The spot price of North China was 6,630 yuan/ton yesterday, down from 6,730 yuan/ton the day before; East China was 6,780 yuan/ton, down from 6,880 yuan/ton; South China was 6,790 yuan/ton, down from 6,950 yuan/ton [1]. Spot News - The futures price has corrected, the upstream's previous inventory has been transferred, enterprise quotes remain stable, and agency orders and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has resumed production of 7042, and the standard product production schedule is neutral [1]. - Downstream product profits are compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The foreign - market offer has increased, and there is a shortage of LL supplies. The long - term import profit has opened, but the import volume of importers has not increased significantly. Downstream factories are mostly cautiously waiting and watching. It is expected that the intensifying geopolitical situation may support the strength of the US - dollar market [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement. With new capacity coming into production recently, the开工 rate is relatively high compared to PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline. The plastics market is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the US reducing tariffs on India, the crude oil price rebounded. New capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started, the temperature has dropped, terminal construction has slowed down, and the demand in the north has decreased. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline, and terminal factories will mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated and declined. The lowest price was 6,750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,900 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,777 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.81%. The position decreased by 6,547 lots to 522,504 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,080 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 65,000 tons to 420,000 tons week - on - week, 105,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat week - on - week at $700/ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5/ton to $675/ton week - on - week [4].

2026 年 2 月 5 日 商 品 研 究 原料端原油价格大幅回落，中东地缘局势难定，乙烯单体环节偏弱，PE 乙烯工艺利润有所修复。PE 盘 面前期持续反弹，成交多集中中游，下游暂未追涨补货。近端下游农膜有转弱，包装膜行业刚需维持。供应 端，巴斯夫湛江逐步试产，2 月目前检修计划环比下滑，部分 FD 回切标品，春节前仍需关注存量高产能和 需求转弱带来的供需压力。 LLDPE：进口缩窄递盘有限，海外裂解重组继 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 货 期 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6918 | 0.77% | 481865 | 17366 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -188 | | -185 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -57 | | -51 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | ...